Hi everyone,

I hope this newsletter finds you well.

We begin our newsletter on a sad note as we mark the passing of ALERT member Michael Lamb KK4OHW and a friend of ALERT Bobby Best WX4ALA. Both were active on the ALERT Sunday Night Net and were strong believers in ALERT and her mission. Our prayers go out to their families

They will be missed.

Fall is soon approaching as the lengthening shadows betray and soon we will enjoy the not too hot, not too cold days of the Goldilocks of seasons, hopefully with the prospect of football, camping, cookouts and a slight crispness in the air.

Let’s have a fun safe healthy Late Summer / Early Fall Season.

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Changes On The Horizon?

There are two proposals that the FCC will be considering which would significantly affect the world of Amateur Radio as we know it.

In the first, the ARRL Board of Directors has accepted the final recommendations for realigning the HF Amateur radio spectrum which would grant Technicians expanded HF voice privileges and other changes. The FCC has yet to rule in this matter,

The major changes would be as follows:

160 Meters:
None.

80 Meters:
Technician voice privileges from 3.900 – 4.000 MHz
Amateur Extra voice privileges would be reduced by 50 kHz with 3.600 – 3.650 MHz being reallocated for RTTY, Narrowband and Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.
The remaining 8,515 Novice’s band would grow from 3.525 to 3.650 MHz. This would also be an increase for the Technician, General and Advanced classes.

60 Meters:
None.

40 Meters:
Technician voice privileges from 7.225 – 7.300 MHz
7.100 – 7,125 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

30 Meters:
10.135 – 10.150 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

20 Meters:
14.035 – 14.150 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

17 Meters:
18.105 – 18.110 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

15 Meters:
Technician voice privileges from 21.350 – 21.450 MHz
21.150 –21.200 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

12 Meters:
24.925 – 24.930 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.

10 Meters:
28.120 – 28.189 MHz, which is currently allocated for RTTY and Narrow Band data would now allow Wideband data and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.
29.200 – 29.300, which is allocated for voice would add an NB and WB data in “Experimental Data Band” and Automatically Controlled Digital Stations or ACDS modes.
Current Novice and Technician voice privileges from 28.300 – 28.500 would remain as is.

CW would continue to be authorized on all Amateur Frequencies..

My Thoughts:

I wasn’t too thrilled by the voice proposal at first, as upgrading to General isn’t THAT grievous an undertaking. The more I thought on it, going on the assumption that the FCC will update the Technician examination to include at least Novice level HF material so applicants will be knowledgeable about the realm they are entering, it could be very useful during emergencies, for instance it could eliminate having to have a relay an emergency message from VHF to HF or vice versa.

20 Meter voice privileges will remain a very large carrot which will provide an incentive to upgrade to General.

I am NOT thrilled at all that the Amateur Extra voice privileges in 80 Meters would be reduced due to 3.600 – 3.650 MHz being removed and reallocated for data use. From my selfish point of view, it just means a loss of usable spectrum which I went through an intense degree of grief and misery to gain.

Walking through that August blizzard and fighting off wolves to reach the FCC office to take that test to get to use that precious 50 kHz is a memory I shall not soon forget.

For more information see:

Click to access Doc%2025A%20Band%20Plan%20Final-1b.pdf

In second event of note, the FCC, in an effort to implement portions of the “Repack Airwaves Yielding Better Access for Users of Modern Services Act” of 2018 — the so-called “Ray Baum’s Act”, has proposed to reinstate Amateur Radio Service fees,

Amateur radio licensees would pay a $50 fee for each amateur radio license application including:

Applications for new licenses
Renewals
Upgrades to existing licenses
Vanity call sign requests

Excluded are applications for administrative updates, such as changes of address, and annual regulatory fees.

The Ray Baum Act requires that the FCC switch from a Congressionally-mandated fee structure to a cost-based system of assessment. In its proposal, the FCC proposes application fees for a broad range of services that use the FCC’s Universal Licensing System (ULS).

The FCC also proposes to assess a $50 fee for individuals who want a printed copy of their license. “The Commission has proposed to eliminate these services — but to the extent the Commission does not do so, we propose a fee of $50 to cover the costs of these services,” the FCC said.

Deadlines for comments and reply comments will be determined once the NPRM appears in the Federal Register. File comments by using the FCC’s Electronic Comment Filing System (ECFS), posting to MD Docket No. 20-270. This docket is already open for accepting comments even though deadlines have not yet been set.

Incidentally, those of us who hold a General Mobile Radio Service – GMRS license would see the existing $70 license fee dropped to $50 for a ten year license.

CB, MURS and FRS radios would remain license free and cost free.

My thoughts:

For existing Amateurs saving up $50 for renewing their license, or whatever they are trying to do is not that objectionable, skinflint that I am, I think the license is worth it.

If it were put in place and the monies collected went towards enforcement I would readily say “go for it”. But, I suspect it will just be deposited into the treasury for general use.

For prospective hams it will definitely be a detriment to recruiting.

We hams currently are battling a situation in which the market is being flooded with radios, cheap, inexpensive or both, where merchants either give the briefest cursory mention of the word “license” or no mention at all. One advertiser even went as far as to say “license not needed” with the advertised radio clearly showing the two meter band on the radio’s display.

Preppers and others wanting “communications capabilities” are buying these radios by the dozens. Hams in various forums try to encourage them to get a license.
The old “FCC will get you if you transmit without one” approach doesn’t work, whereas saying “you want to get a license so you can learn how to use your radio effectively and not cause more harm than good. You want to practice and perfect your skills before “The Event”, because if you wait and then try to learn when everything has fallen apart and your life depends on it working, then your ship is always sunk”.

Though there will always be those who feel they are “putting their Big Boy Pants on” as they tell hams what they can do with their stinkin’ licenses, this approach does seem to have a positive effect.

I suspect telling them “you will need a $50 license to use your $29 radio” may not be particularly effective and will just encourage those leaning towards joining the Baofeng Bootleg Brigade to ignore the requirements and just do whatever they want to do as “everything is legal in emergencies”.

Emergency uses apparently including the power twins, Karen the Soccer Mom from Hades keeping up with the kids, and good old Cooter and Donny Ray talking as they drive from the lake on an emergency run for more beer, bait and tater chips.

The one comforting thought is that though I have heard stations bootlegging on two meters, especially on 146.420 MHz, I suspect that 90% of the radios bought will never be used due to them being bought and being stuck and forgotten in a Bug Out Bag, along with the “tactical shovel/flashlight combo” with its corroded batteries and the camouflage Kevlar underwear.

I have read postings by people buying them and saying “I have no clue why I did or what to do with them”. They bought them because they were “tacticool” as they say, or as another item checked off of the “whew I‘ve got that covered” checklist. Some try once and give up saying “they are just too complicated”. Those who don’t give up use them on simplex as one would use an FRS radio, when an FRS radio would actually have been the better choice for the purposes for which they have in mind.

For more information on this proposal see:

Click to access FCC-20-116A1.pdf

Specifically page 9 which concerns Amateur radio.

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.
September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the effects of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

From 1851 – 2019 there have been 620 Tropical Storms and 409 hurricanes, 108 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable September hurricanes are:

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which was a Category 4 Storm whose storm surge overwhelmed Galveston Island, killing 8000 people, and is still the deadliest weather disaster in US history.

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1936, the most intense storm to strike the US, was a Category 5 storm which moved through the Florida Keys and along West Florida, overturning trains and literally sandblasting people to death.

Ivan, the category 3 storm which struck Alabama & Florida in 2004, caused tremendous damage to Gulf Shores and extensive damage to the state’s electrical grid. At the height of the outages, Alabama Power reported 489,000 subscribers having lost electrical power—roughly half of its subscriber base.

Rita, a category 3 storm which struck the Texas – Louisiana border in 2005, and, despite the distance, dropped 22 tornadoes over Western Alabama.

 

Days continue to grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 64.9 degrees at the beginning of the month to 53.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 12 hours 52 minutes on August 1 to 11 hours 53 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

September 1 Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 7:13 PM
September 15 Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 6:55 PM
September 31 Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 6:33 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Leo.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, in Leo is hidden in the glare of the sunset. As the month progresses he emerges into the evening sky.

On September 18 Mercury reaches his furthest distance from the Sun, or aphelion when he will be 43, 689,000 miles from the Sun.

On September 22 he will reach his highest point in the sky, or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” and will be 0.3° North of Spica, the brightest star in Virgo.

Venus, magnitude –4.3 in Gemini, rises in deep darkness two hours before dawn and by dawn is blazing brightly high in the east.

Venus, currently appears slightly gibbous or 59% sunlit, in telescopes, and sinks a little lower each morning, while the background stars move rapidly to the upper right as the days progress.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in Pisces.

Mars, magnitude -1.8 in Pisces, rises in the east about a half hour after the end of twilight and reaches his highest altitude in the southern sky around 4 AM

In a telescope the gibbous 92% sunlit globe is already as big as it appears at its average close approaches to Earth, or “oppositions”. As Earth catches up with him in early October he will be much larger and shine at a bright magnitude of -2.6.

He will NOT, as the perennial social media meme proclaims, be “as large as the Full Moon.” If he ever does, there is a serious problem, as either Mars or Earth has slipped out of orbit. Which in our case would be bad mojo indeed.

Martian northern winter and southern summer solstice will occur September 3.

Mars will pass behind the Moon on September 5 at 11:42 PM.

Dwarf Planet Ceres shines at magnitude 7.7 in Aquarius.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.6, in Sagittarius, shines in the South in the early evening.

Saturn, magnitude +0.3, in Sagittarius, is the steady, pale yellowish “star” in the south in early evening.

Jupiter and Saturn provide a fine view in the late evening sky. Jupiter is the brightest; with Saturn is 8° to his left.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, in Aries, is well up in the east by midnight, east of Mars.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius, is higher in the southeast at midnight, and is highest in the south by 2 to 3 AM.

The blue giant planet will be at its closest approach to Earth or “Opposition”, 2,689,200,000 miles, on September 11. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long.

Due to its extreme distance from Earth, it will only appear as a tiny blue dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.3 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.0 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 19.0 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

When Eris was discovered is 2005 it was undecided whether it was a planet or a dwarf planet. It was popularly nicknamed “Xena”, for TV’s “Xena the Warrior Princess”. Then her moon was discovered, so it was nicknamed “Gabrielle”, who was Xena’s sidekick.

However, when the International Astronomical Union gave its official names in 2006, they chose “Eris”, the Greek goddess of strife and discord, and “Dysnomia”, which sounds like a medical condition, who was Eris’s daughter, the Greek goddess of lawlessness.

I always have felt they should have kept it Xena and Gabrielle, as it had a “cool factor” and since when I was much younger I felt that they, along their distant cousin, Buffy The Vampire Slayer truly rocked.

Now I’m so old soon it will be “Betty White – Ninja Warrior”.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 2 at 12:23 AM CDT or 05:23 UTC.

This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year’s September Moon will not be “Harvest Moon”

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so it will occur at October’s “Hunters Moon”.

Since this month’s Full Moon occurs near Apogee, it will be a “Micromoon”, which is opposite of a Supermoon. Also called “Minimoon”, “Micro Full Moon” or “Apogee Moon”, this Full Moon will appear slightly smaller than a normal Full Moon.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on September 6, when she will be 252,032 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon occurs September 10.

New Moon occurs September 17 at 6:00 AM CDT or 11:00 UTC when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on September 7, when she will be 223,123 miles from Earth.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 22 at 8:30 AM CDT or 13:30 UTC when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length throughout the world. For the Southern Hemisphere it is Vernal Equinox, the first day of Spring.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

At this time of year, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) can link up with Earth’s magnetic field, prying open cracks. Solar wind pours in to fuel displays of the aurora borealis with no geomagnetic storm required. Researchers call this the “Russell-McPherron” effect after the space physicists who first described it in the 1970s.

First Quarter Moon will occur on September 23.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

4201 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 13, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on September 8 at 7PM.

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.
Hope to “see” you there Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

 

 

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you safe and well as we enter these midsummer days. As you bake and broil in the sun, remember that fall is just a little over a month away, and eventually the heat and humidity will retreat back towards the tropical realms from whence it came and in about 6 months we will be griping and wishing we could borrow one of these days for a welcomed winter thaw..

As mentioned in last month’s newsletter ALERT dues are due.

We are in the process of updating our roster and databases. If you have not paid your dues by
September 1 you will be dropped from our membership rolls and will have to reapply for membership.

We don’t want this to happen, so if you haven’t paid your dues, I urge you to do

For information on where to send the dues and also for the form if you are not a member and would like to join, visit our blog at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf

Our next ALERT meeting will be on August 14

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Cellphones And Emergency Communications

Cellphones have become society’s primary mode of communications. What was once an expensive luxury item is now just a part of everyday life. There is the joke that for the first time in human history we have at our fingertips access to the entirety of human knowledge and with this capability we share pictures of cats and call each other dogs. A fact which is, especially considering the times in which we live, painfully true.

As common as this technology is, the infrastructure which makes cellular communications possible is exceedingly fragile.

Physical damage to the towers, either due to an accident, severe weather or a deliberate act of man, or a failure of the T-1 line, which is the network digital channels that allow transmission of voice and data, and the cellular network is basically dead.

Even someone having a bad day with a backhoe in Dallas accidentally digging up the fiber optics lines can disable communications here in Alabama.

Even without damage to the system sometimes just the sheer number of calls being processed can jam communication lines, especially during and after an emergency or disaster. A prime example of this being during the Winter Storm of 2014 when “all circuits are busy” greeted those trying to make calls as the circuits were overwhelmed.
Also frequently we see the skies dotted with chubby cumulus clouds and a radar that showing plenty of nothing and calls mysteriously drop into some sort of RF vortex from whence they never return.

In these cases sometimes even though voice signals cannot make it through the circuits, text messages with their narrow bandwidth can worm their way through the logjam. A good example of this was during Hurricane Irma when I was in a continuous exchange of texts with my sister as the Category 4 storm’s eye passed directly over her house in September 2017.

Perhaps an even more dramatic example was the earthquake and tsunami which struck Japan in 2011.

Here we had, for that type disaster, the most prepared nation on Earth & yet with all that technology and knowledge, once the event began the population were helpless as they gazed into the eyes of a tragedy.

Yet with the communications infrastructure demolished, a flood of messages emerged. Not via voice communications, but via the internet with tweets & texting.

Texting is one of the most popular forms of communications. It’s handy & annoying. Just try talking to someone & them never ceasing to click away. It makes you want to grab both them and their phone and pitch both out of the window.

But, texting can be extremely useful for emergency communications.

For emergency preparedness it could be of value to have a set of brief emergency messages stored on your phone that you could copy, paste and send letting a contact person know of your status.

Everyone should have an emergency contact person, preferably out of town that everyone can coordinate their information with.

The list I concocted, which are saved in my “notes” folder are:

1. We have had to evacuate area due to ________________. Will contact you ASAP.
2. Tornado hit neighborhood, no damage, we are safe.
3. Tornado hit neighborhood, some damage, but, we are safe.
4. Tornado hit neighborhood, heavy damage, but we are ok.
5. 911…call me ASAP at ________.
6. ________ is in _________ hospital. Will call when able.
7, Departed at _______ ETA _________.
8. What’s your ETA?
9. Can’t reach you. Is everything ok?

These examples can be customized and tweaked to meet your own needs.

I all I have to do is go to the “notes” folder, click on the message, until it says “select all”, which sometimes takes more than one attempt, then click “copy” and then paste it in a text message.

Of course you can try to adlib and just type what you wish, but, the human body tends to lose its fine motor skills, such as those used for typing, during a crisis. So, having the messages ready to send is a definite advantage.

One additional little suggestion would be:

Make sure to sign the message!!!
Imagine getting a message from an unfamiliar number saying “Grandma is in ICU, probably won’t make it through the night, come ASAP”, with no signature. Is it your Grandma? Someone else’s Grandma? Is it a wrong number? Did someone borrow a phone to send the text? How do you know?

Many years ago I had an answering machine, but, no caller ID. I came home from work and on Monday I had a message from an elderly gentleman “We’ve left Chicago and are heading your way!” On Tuesday there was the message. “We spent the night in Louisville and are pulling out now.” On Wednesday I was greeted by “We spent some time in Nashville, but should be there in a couple of hours.”

No name, no number, no clue and no visitors arriving either.

I have this happen in group emails also and see it with callouts. “I can come in for a few hours Saturday”. That’s great, but who are you?

That’s why you should always sign your message!

You may have other ideas on how to better use this resource during emergencies.

Feel free to share them with us!

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Why Ham Radio Died

Periodically, in fact quite frequently, I have read either in magazines or online the reasons that ham radio is supposedly dying. This seems to be a common belief and in fact I have seen it used as an odd recruitment tool. Why “come and join our dying hobby” is supposed to attract people I never have figured out.

In 1975 I was a teenager and was researching and studying how to get in to amateur radio. The entry level license was the Novice license, which was good for two years. If you did not upgrade during that time period you would lose your license and would have to wait a year before you took the test again. You were issued a WN prefix to indicate that you were a Novice, which would be replaced with a WB callsign when you upgraded and you had to use a crystal controlled radio, as VFO’s were not allowed.

Ham radio, as I then read, had been dying since the FCC created the “incentive licensing” scheme in the late 1960’s. True there were 175,000 ham licenses, but, how many were actually active operators or even still alive? “A graying hobby, made up of old men…with no young people being attracted to keep it alive” was the common lament. Sound familiar?

Yep, the hobby was dying.

Just for fun, let’s look at the causes of death in rough chronological order from 1975 to 2020.

1. Novice Licenses are made renewable (no one will ever upgrade now}
2. Novices allowed can use VFO’s (now they will invade and bootleg in the General bands)
3. Novices get permanent callsigns, like mine WD4NYL (now you won’t know when they are
bootlegging in the General bands)
4. CB Radio (……boooooo…..hisssss)
5. Crotchety old men (sort of useful though, since they are the only ones who know how to keep
the repeater, which they financed and built, working}
6. Young whipper snappers just “given licenses”
7. KA callsigns are issued (they are making way for the 20 million CBers they are about to let in)
8. Volunteer Exams initiated (yep just say that all your fishing buddies passed the test)
9. That mystical lure of a ham that causes that uncontrollable urge to cheat (you know its true)
10. CW Exam eliminated (we are truly doomed)
11. KB callsigns (woe is us)
12. 300,000 hams (but, but, how many are active, how many dead?)
13. Crotchety Old Men
14. Know it all young whipper snappers
15. Mushy tests. (they should be made to walk through a blizzard like I did)
16. Commodore 64, TRS-80 and IBM computers (everyone will playing and no one will be
interested in ham radio)
17. Mobile telephones (if don’t need an autopatch, what’s to keep folk interested?)
18. KC callsigns (a sign of the times)
19. Cable TV (with 50 channels to choose from who will have time for hamming?)
20. 400,000 hams (how come I never hear em on?)
21. Low sunspots (it’s going supernova anyway. THEN see how far HF will get you, buddy)
22. Young whipper snappers becoming crotchety old men
23. Y2K (means QRT)
24. No code digital weather whackos (aka as ALERT)
25. D-STAR and any other digital mode (can’t afford it and FM will be dead soon)
26. Mayan Calendar (we dead)
27. Baofeng Radios (cheap n dirty)
28, Icom, Yaesu and Kenwood radios (too expensive for newbies)
29. FT8 (get a DXCC in 30 minutes while you mow the grass)
30 No one joining the ARRL (freeloaders!!!)
31. People joingin the ARRL (sheeple!!!).
32. Baotleg Boofang, er, I mean bootleg Baofeng Users
33. Preppers getting radios, but, not a license. (we don’t need no stinkin’ license)
34. Preppers getting radios and a ham license. (they ain’t in it fer the hobby!!!)
35. The price of pickles in Poughkeepsie.
36. Facebook (why get on the air when you can whine online about people not getting on the air
on Facebook instead?)
37. Auburn cheating, er I mean beating Alabama (Roll Tide anyway)
38, Covid-19
39. KO callsigns
40. 812,550 hams as of 7/29 (but, but, but, how many are really active, or dead?)

Ham radio changes, as it should and must to remain relevant. We may not always agree with the changes that occur, but, to butcher a quoe from Mark Twain:

“The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated.”

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851 to 2019 there have been 396 Tropical Storms and 245 Hurricanes, 78 of which made landfall in the United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille and Katrina in 1969 and 2005, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida in 1992.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.4 degrees at the beginning of the month to 65.0 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 54 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:34 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Cancer.

Mercury, magnitude -0.9 in Gemini, glimmers low in the east-northeast during dawn. He will grow brighter, growing from magnitude –0.9 to –1.3 this week, but it gets a little lower each morning. He is about 30° lower left of brilliant Venus.

Mercury will be at his closest approach to the Sun or Perihelion on August 5.

Mercury then will slip beneath the Sunrise and pass directly behind the Sun or be at “Superior Conjunction” on August 17.

Venus, magnitude –4.5, is moving from eastern Taurus into the top of Orion’s Club and rises in deep darkness more than 1½ hours before the very beginning of dawn an shines brightly as the “Morning Star” at dawn.

At the beginning of the month Venus is a very thick crescent, as is moving away from the Earth. As she moves away its phase is increasing and will be nearly half lit, similar to a First Quarter Moon’s phase, also called “dichotomy” on August 12.

Venus will reach at Greatest Western Elongation or the highest point above the eastern horizon on August 13, when she will be 45.8 degrees from the Sun.

Venus along with Jupiter are the only two planets that can be spotted with the naked eye in broad daylight. Can you spot her as she passes south around 11 AM?

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in Aquarius.

Mars, magnitude -1.2 in Pisces, rises in the east around 11 PM.

Mars will reach his closest approach to the Sun or Perihelion on August 3.

On August the 9th Mars will pass within 0.8 degrees of the Moon on August 9 just after moonrise.

Mars is growing larger in telescopes as the Earth, in its faster inner orbit speeds towards their closest approach in Early October.

Mars is 87% sunlit and his South Polar Cap is in good position for viewing.

With the Earth heading for Mars, the Earthlings are taking advantage of the opportunity by sending a flotilla of three craft towards the Red Planet. The United Arab Emirates spacecraft “Hope”, China’s “Tianwen-1” and the United States’ “Perseverance”.

And, to think, all these years we thought it would be Mars invading the Earth and it turns out to be us invading them instead…

Jupiter, magnitude –2.7 in Sagittarius, is bright in the southeast at twilight with Saturn nearby.

Saturn, magnitude +0.2 in Sagittarius, along with Jupiter 8 degrees to the right, loom in the southeast in twilight and pass highest in the south around midnight.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, in Aries, is high in the east after midnight.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius, is high in the south-southeast also after midnight.

August’s Full Moon will occur August 3 at 15:59 UTC or 10:59 AM CDT. August’s Full Moon was called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 9, when she will be 251,443 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon will occur August 11, with the visible portion of the Moon pointing East.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17 to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 12 and the morning of August 13.

The Last Quarter moon will block many of the fainter meteors this year. But if you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few of the brighter ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur on August 19 at 10:42 PM CDT or 2:42 UTC on August 18. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The moon will be at Perigee or her closest approach to Earth on August 21, when she will be 225,888 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon will occur August 25, with the visible portion of the Moon pointing West.

4197 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 23, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on July 11 at 7PM

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way through the heat of Summer.

Our next ALERT meeting will be July 14 and as with last month’s meeting, it will be held remotely.

Dues time also arrives with the July meeting.

So join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so I will remain current.

Since we can’t meet in person, I suggest visiting our blog at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf for information on where to send the dues and also for the form if you are not a member and would like to join.

Everyone stay safe!

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Politics And ALERT

From its foundation in May 1996 ALERT has always been a non-political entity. In fact the purpose of its creation was to provide a neutral ground where people could direct their severe weather reports to the National Weather Service free of ham political posturing and hissing, as was hampering the NWS mission in those days, (and occasionally still does).

This neutrality extends to “secular” politics as well.

The membership of ALERT is and has always been made up of a diverse group of members with a wide range of political views, left wing, right wing and those in between.

ALERT works for our parent agency the NWS. Just as they are non-political, so are we and so shall we be,

I have tried to keep this newsletter free from politics, ham or otherwise, mindful that it isn’t my personal blog, but is designed to represent ALERT and the NWS, hopefully in a positive light. Also I have a strong dislike for stress and arguments, which I have seen irrevocably damage long standing relationships over problems that could not be solved by the screaming and over people that would not give them the time of day of they passed them on the street.

All of this is to say that ALERT will not to be drawn into or associated with political drama. Just as “storm chasing” is not something ALERT or the NWS participates in, neither is politics.

What people do outside of ALERT is their own business. But, if someone, either in the group or outside, drags our group’s name into the fray, it is not by our consent or knowledge.

So if the temptation hits you, do as I do. When the Wisdom whispers into my ear “this is not the right path”, heed her gentle voice and choose the wiser path.

It’s the better thing to do.

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Where To Get Away From It All

One of the grand traditions of Amateur Radio is the DXepedition, where operators travel to distant lands to provide operators with the chance to contact the rarer of the 340 Amateur Radio “countries”.

Some of these locations may be jungles. lush tropical islands, uninhabited sandbars or rocks that jut out of the ocean only at high tide in a remote corner of the world

One question that may come to mind is what is the world’s most remote location?

One might think of the depths of the Amazon or the frozen world of Antarctica. But that is not the case.

The most distant spot on Earth, or the “Pole Of Inaccessibility” is located in the South Pacific
at latitude 48° 52′ 32″S and longitude 123° 23′ 33″W at spot known as “Point Nemo”, Nemo being Latin for “no one” and also a reference to Jules Verne’s Captain Nemo.

It lies more than 1,670 miles from the nearest lands.

To the north, Ducie Island, part of the Pitcairn Islands group. Motu Nui, part of the Easter Islands in the northeast, and Maher Island off the coast of Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica to the south.

It is so distant that the closet people to Point Nemo are the crew of the International Space Station as it passes 220 miles overhead.

Not even the man who discovered Point Nemo, survey engineer Hrvoje Lukatela has ever visited it.

In 1992 he located the point in the ocean that was farthest away from any land using a computer program that calculated the coordinates that were the greatest distance from three equidistant land coordinates. It is very possible no human has ever passed through those coordinates at all.

In fact even marine life is scarce as the coordinates are located within the “South Pacific Gyre”, an enormous rotating current that prevents nutrient-rich water from flowing into the area. Also, because the region is so isolated from land masses, the wind does not carry much organic matter which can fall into the 42 degree waters.

Without any food sources, it is impossible to sustain any life in this part of the ocean other than the bacteria and small crabs that live near the volcanic vents on the seafloor.

It has been described as “the least biologically active region of the world ocean”.

It also was the source of a mystery

In 1997, oceanographers recorded a mysterious noise less than 1,240 miles east of Point Nemo called “The Bloop”.

“The Bloop”, was louder than the sound of the largest living animal, the blue whale – leading to speculation that it was made by some larger unknown sea creature.

What strange one eyed multi-tentacled creature that could drag ships to their doom was heralding its discovery announcing its presence?

None, as it turned out, as NOAA confirmed the sound to be the sound of icebergs. When large icebergs crack and fracture, they generate powerful, ultra-low-frequency sounds. Subsequent recordings of known ice quakes have shared similarities with the Bloop.

The place is also a graveyard or “space cemetery” because more than 263 spacecraft were disposed in this area between 1971 and 2016. This includes hundreds of decommissioned satellites and various unmanned resupply spacecraft to the Mir space station and the International Space Station, including Russian Progress cargo craft, the defunct Soviet space station Mir and six Salyut space stations.

The area is officially known to space agencies as the “South Pacific Ocean Uninhabited Area”. In particular, the Russian, European and Japanese space agencies have long used it as a dumping ground, because of its remoteness and for its limited shipping traffic, so as not to endanger human life with any falling debris.

The stations do not fall intact, but create debris fields spread across the ocean floor, mainly fuel tanks and pressure vehicles.

Point Nemo isn’t the only space graveyard. There is another from Cape Canaveral stretching far into the Atlantic, which contains the spend rockets of countless unmanned satellites, the boosters of Project Mercury and Gemini and the stages of the Saturn V and 1B rockets that launched the Apollo spacecraft.

The other major graveyard stretches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan across Asiatic Russia and the trackless regions of Siberia, where pieces of the boosters that launched Vostok, Voshkod, Soyuz and the Soviet Space Shuttle Buran lay.

But, back to Point Nemo, it is said that on a calm day, the sea surface in the heart of the South Pacific Gyre is a beautiful clear cornflower blue, with a hint of violet.

So, if you have the urge to take the SS Minnow on a 3 hour tour, and be “rare DX” as a Maritime Mobile station, enjoy the view. Let us know when you will be available.

Just watch for falling space junk.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

From 1851 to 2019 there have been 125 Tropical Storms and 59 Hurricanes, 27 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Dwarf Planet Ceres, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto are in a rough planetary alignment on the same side of the solar system. Uranus and Neptune are being antisocial or perhaps socially distant off to the side of the solar system.

Other than causing people’s brain lubricant to shift to one side, it has no apparent effects.

Mercury is hidden in the glare of the Sun at the beginning of the month, but, then reemerges into the predawn skies.

On July 22 Mercury will reach his highest point in the sky or “Greatest Western Elongation” of 20.1 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Venus, magnitude –4.6 in Taurus, shines brightly low in the east in the dawn. She is moving slowly through the Hyades Star Cluster, which is at 153 light years distant is the nearest open star cluster. It makes up the “v shape” which is the heart of the constellation Taurus, with the apex being the red star Aldebaran.

Above this is another open star cluster, the Pleiades about 9° above it, but more distant at an estimated 444 light years.

These star clusters will be difficult to see at the start of the month due to the glow of dawn, but, will get easier as the month progresses and they rise earlier in the predawn sky. By the 12th the brightest stars should be visible, especially Aldebaran, which Venus will be passing near.

In a telescope Venus is a large, thin crescent, about 15% sunlit. Week by week, it will shrink into the distance while waxing in phase.

Venus will be at her greatest brightness on July 8, and her farthest distance from the Sun, or Aphelion on July 10, at 0.73 astronomical units or 66.7 million miles from the Sun.

She will be the bright “Morning Star” of summer and fall.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in Shaggytaurus, or rather Sagittarius.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 4, when she will be 94.5 million miles from our home star, as she and the Moon wobble through space, the Moon tugging on the Earth like an unruly pup on a leash.

Mars, magnitude -0.4 in Cetus The Sea Monster, rises due east around midnight or 1 AM and at the first light of dawn shines very high and prominent in the southeast.

Earth, being in a faster orbit around the Sun, is speeding towards Mars. Mars will appear twice as large when the Earth passes by him at their closest approach or “Opposition” in the first half of October.

Mars is an 84% sunlit gibbous disk. A small telescope will show Mars’s gibbous shape, it’s shrinking South Polar Cap, which is a seasonal shrinkage, as it is Summer there, and, in good seeing, perhaps some of its dark surface markings.

Jupiter, magnitude -2.7 on the border of Sagittarius and Capricornus rises in late twilight.

The giant planet will be at its closest approach to Earth and its face will be fully illuminated by the Sun on July 14. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. This is the best time to view and photograph Jupiter and its moons. A medium-sized telescope should be able to show you some of the details in Jupiter’s cloud bands. A good pair of binoculars should allow you to see Jupiter’s four largest moons, Ganymede, Callisto, Europa, and Io, appearing as bright dots on either side of the planet.

Saturn, magnitude +0.2 on the border of Sagittarius and Capricornus also rises in late twilight.

Jupiter and Saturn form a striking pair that hangs low in the southeast after dark. Jupiter is the brightest. Saturn is lower left of Jupiter by about 6°.

The two giant planets shine at their highest and telescopic best around 1 or 2 AM in the south.

The ringed planet will be at “Opposition” on July 20. His face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. A medium-sized or larger telescope will allow you to see Saturn’s rings and a few of its brightest moons, including planet sized Titan, the only moon known to have a dense atmosphere, and the only known body in space, other than Earth, where clear evidence of stable bodies of surface liquid has been found.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, in Aries, is low in the east just before dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius, is well up in the southeast before dawn, east of Mars.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 4 at 11:44 PM CDT or 4:44 UTC on July 5 and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

On July 4 & 5 there will be a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse. A penumbral lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth’s partial shadow, or penumbra. During this type of eclipse the Moon will darken slightly but not completely. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of North America, South America, the eastern Pacific Ocean, the western Atlantic Ocean, and extreme western Africa.

In Birmingham the eclipse will begin on July 4 at 10:07 PM, with the maximum eclipse at 11:29 PM and ending at 12:52 AM on July 5.

This will not be a dramatic “Blood Moon” event.

What is noteworthy is that this will be the third eclipse in a row, as there was another Penumbral Lunar Eclipse on June 5 and an Annular Solar Eclipse on June 21.

It is normal to have eclipses paired with one lunar and one solar. But, a third eclipse is rather rare.

Since eclipses can only occur during a Full Moon or a New Moon and since we get one of each roughly every 15 days, you might wonder why we don’t get an eclipse every Full and New Moon?

The answer to this is that the Sun’s apparent movement across the sky and background stars is steady and unchanging along a path called the “Ecliptic”. The moons path is slightly tilted by just over 5 angular degrees, or as in official NASA terms, is “catawampus” from the Sun’s Ecliptical Plane or path.

Sometimes it is North of the Sun’s path and said to be in “Ascending Node”. Sometimes it is South of the path and said to be in “Descending Node”.

For an eclipse to occur the Moon has to exactly intersect the Ecliptical Plane or the “Nodal Axis” and be in a direct line with the Sun and the Earth.

To help complicate things, moon’s orbital plane “prescesses” or slowing turns like a spinning top or coin that is slowing down and this causes the nodes to move in a clockwise direction around the zodiac and takes 18 years, 7 months and 9 days to make one complete revolution. Eclipses occur when either the new or full moon occurs close to the nodal axis. The closer to the axis, this “deeper” the eclipse or the more “total” it becomes. The Moon’s orbit is also somewhat oval shaped, and so can be too far away to totally block the Sun, which is why you have Annular eclipses.

All of these events can be predicted mathematically. Given that I have but few functioning brain cells remaining and none of them are in the mathematical portion of my brain, I will not attempt to explain how these calculations work, but just be grateful that the gents at the US Naval Observatory are smarter than I.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 12, when she will be 251,159 miles from Earth.

This will occur at Last Quarter Moon.

During Last Quarter Moon the visible portion of the Moon points East, with the dividing line between the dark and light portions of the Moon, or “Terminator” pointing roughly North and South, which can be useful to remember for rough direction finding when out in the wilds.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

New Moon will occur on July 20 at 12:33 PM CDT or 17:33 UTC. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 24, when she will be 228,892 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon will occur July 27, with the visible portion of the Moon pointing West.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The First Quarter moon will block many of the fainter meteors this year. But if you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few of the brighter ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

4171 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 24, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on July 14 at 7PM

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well during these troubled times.

Normally at this time I would mention the results of the ALERT elections. However due to the constraints of the current crises, the ALERT election process is a problematic affair. Therefore, in view of the current COVID-19 emergency, we, the ALERT leadership, have chosen to defer the election process until we reach some form of normalcy which will allow the process as stated in the Bylaws of forming a Nominating Committee, that Committee issuing its recommendations and a formal vote being held, can be feasible.

Until then the current leadership will remain in place.

In 2007 when I rewrote the Bylaws and they were adopted, I never envisioned a set of circumstances such as the ones which we are now seeing and living. I doubt Mr. Roberts did either when he wrote his “Rules of Order”.

So unless he happens to attend the next meeting and says “point of order” and has a better idea, Capone’s Third Law comes in to play, which states “in an emergency situation sometimes you just gotta do whatcha gotta do to get it done.”

ALERT is in good hands.

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting above normal seasons.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really how many storms actually do form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition which gets a little longer each year.
The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but, it did anyway.

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.

3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

https://www.hurricanezone.net/ – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/
and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever it’s origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2020 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2020 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 16 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Felix, which took just 51 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.
Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2019 there have been 94 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking towards the sky, The Sun, magnitude -26.7 is currently located in Taurus.

Mercury, magnitude 0.0, is at “Greatest Elongation” or as high in the western twilight as it will get, at 23.6 degrees above the horizon.

By the end of the month he will have slipped behind the western horizon and on the 30th will be at “Inferior Conjunction” or almost directly between the Earth and the Sun.
Venus is barely above the west-northwest horizon in the bright twilight, a mere 20 minutes after sunset.

Venus is closing in on the Sun and will disappear below the western horizon. She will reach “Inferior Conjunction” on June 3rd, when she passes less than one solar radius from the Sun’s northern limb.

She will then emerge as the Morning Star in the eastern dawn.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is on the border of the Constellations Scorpius and Ophiuchus,

Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn shine in the southeast to south before and during early dawn.

Mars, magnitude +0.1, in dim Aquarius, is far to the left of Saturn as dawn begins. It has been slowly brightening and enlarging. In a telescope Mars is a little gibbous disk.

Jupiter, at magnitude -2.5, in Sagittarius the brightest, is on the right.

Saturn, magnitude +0.4 in Capricorn, glows pale yellow just to Jupiter’s left. They both rise now around midnight daylight-saving time.

Uranus is hidden in the glow of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius, is in the east-southeast before dawn begins, in the vicinity of Mars.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 2 at a distance of 226,406 Miles.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 5 at 2:12 PM CDT or 19:12 UTC. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

There will be a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse on June 5. A penumbral lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth’s partial shadow, or penumbra. During this type of eclipse the Moon will darken slightly but not completely. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, the Indian Ocean, and Australia, but not North America.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 14 at a distance of 251,404 Miles.

New Moon will occur June 21 at 1:42 AM CDT or 6:42 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be an Annular Solar Eclipse on June 21. An annular solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is too far away from the Earth to completely cover the Sun. This results in a ring of light around the darkened Moon. The Sun’s corona is not visible during an annular eclipse. The path of the eclipse will begin in central Africa and travel through Saudi Arabia, northern India, and southern China before ending in the Pacific Ocean. A partial eclipse will be visible throughout most of eastern Africa, the Middle East, and southern Asia, but, not North America.

Summer Solstice will occur at 4:43 PM CDT or 21:43 UTC on June 20. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

The Moon, being one day before First Quarter will not pose a major problem.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 29 at a distance of 229,260 Miles.

4158 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 21, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on May 9. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/