ALERT NEWSLETTER – February 2019

Hi Everyone

Our spring tornado season is just around the corner and now is the time to review your plans and procedures for those storms to come.

Take this time brush up on your skills. Don’t wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late.

In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions:

Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready?
Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working?
Are the batteries charged?
Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources.
Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings?
If you are on the NWSChat, is your password up to date?
Is your training and knowledge fresh, or do you need to do a quick review?

Are you prepared both at home and at work?

In preparing, remember that keeping yourself and your family alive and intact during and after the storms is your number one priority.

Here’s hoping that your February will be peaceful and safe.

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The Woes Of Forecasting Winter Weather

“Kind of missed it didn’t they?”, “I survived Snowmageddon 2019, ha, ha, ha” “I’m gonna give Spann and Dice a piece of my mind.” “What am I going to do with 18 gallons of milk…gee thanks a lot.”

Though I love meteorology, but, right now is one of those times I’m glad I’m NOT a meteorologist. It’s bad enough to be blamed on soaked weddings, wind-blown field goals and soap operas interruptions, but, these “heinous acts” pale in comparison to reaction when winter weather forecasts stray off the charts.

Whether it is due to the disruptions they cause or the “touchiness” of the subject in general, a missed winter weather forecast seems to take on a life of its own, and grief upon grief is piled on the forecasters.

The fact not appreciated by the general public is just how hard predicting winter weather in Alabama can be.

It is a complex process with many factors that can “throw a monkey wrench into the works” at the worst possible times.

One consideration is that there are so many variations in the types of winter weather possible, largely due to our latitude and our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and the moisture it contains.

In the Northern states it is much simpler situation, for ignoring the frigid temperature threat, snow is the primary concern, with occasional ice storms.

One thing not realized is snow is not snow is not snow. In other words there are many different types of snow. The nature of the air mass triggering the snowfall, dry or moist, dictates the moisture amount available which in turn determines the structure of the snowflakes or pellets and the effect they can have. Therefore a Western snow is different than a Midwestern, Northern or an Eastern snow. Similarly a European snow is different than Western US snow. For example French World Cup Alpine skier Jean-Claude Killy, who dominated the sport in the late 1960’s, had to spend several weeks in advance of a competition practicing and getting acquainted with the texture and quirks of Aspen Colorado snow. The snow of the Rockies was different than the snows of the Alps.

The snow types in these areas have one common factor – they are generally dry, or have low moisture content, where an Alabama snow is generally moisture rich. Because of this an Alabama snow usually borderlines on an ice storm.

That’s just snow. But, our winter weather may be rain, thunderstorms, cold rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination of two or more of these. For example, I remember one evening it was raining in Eastern Alabama; we had tornadoes touching down in Central Alabama and were receiving reports of snow in Tupelo heading towards Columbus and the Alabama border all at the same time.

So, you not only have the challenge of predicting if precipitation will occur, but, also how much, where, and what type or types will be seen.

Add to this the variables of where the fronts are located, the height of the freezing level, where the moisture pool is and the ever present question of how fast and hard these elements move toward or away from each other in this bumper car battle of the sky, and it becomes like forecasting the behavior of suds in a washing machine.

These factors are sensitive to the slightest changes in temperatures and tracks. For instance a
small change in temperature can mean the difference between snow, rain or another precipitation type. While a slight change in the low pressure track will change the areas that are expected to receive precipitation and the precipitation type. Some may get snow, ice or nothing at all.

Variations in local the microclimate, such as terrain, forestation and mountain ranges, can have a significant impact on the high and low temperatures and also the precipitation probability and expected accumulation.

Then there is the question of moisture itself. A small difference in the moisture amount will have a big difference in the accumulation of inches of snow. For example, a 1/10th of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 1 inch of snow while 4/10ths of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 4 inches of snow. For a rain forecast, this difference is not that apparent but with snowfall accumulation it is very apparent.

So with all of these variables, and some probably yet to be discovered, the fact that every now and then a forecast will go awry is not remarkable. While, the fact that the forecasts are accurate the majority of the time should be.

But, this is where the rule I call the “Ninety-nine Minus One Equals Zero Rule” comes to play. You can “get it right” 99 times in a row and it goes unnoticed and unappreciated, but, let you miss it once and that miss is what everyone remembers.

To quote Shakespeare “The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones.” – Marc Antony

No one remembers the numerous times when the snow forecast is spot on. Everyone remembers people being stranded in an unexpected winter wasteland or when doom was forecast, but nothing happened at all.

Since winter precipitation is far less common than “up North”, we are less prepared in general, both individually and as a community, so the problem is amplified.

For instance, people here don’t know how to drive in clear weather, let alone snow. Northerners laugh at Southerners inability to drive through snow, and then they try to barrel through not realizing that under that pretty fluffy inch of snow is a quarter inch thick sheet of ice, and off the road they go too.

Then you add to that that we seem to the Bread & Milk Panic Capitol of the World, (but, in reality we are far from alone, as explored in the article “Tales Of Bread & Milk” featured in the February 2017 Newsletter), and it makes for an even more muddled mess.

So if you are one of the many being tempted to tweet torment on forecasters, far and wide, many of whom weren’t paid for a month, but, stayed selflessly at their post, try practicing a little patience, understanding and dare I say, common sense, and perhaps just be glad you aren’t one of them just now.

To the forecasters who are reading this, as Bugs Bunny would say “meh, it happens”.

No one may tell you, but, we do appreciate what you do and the dedication you show and have shown.

Don’t let the naysayers get you down.

There will be warmer days.

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Mark’s Almanac

February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it, is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.

February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.

February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so the that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year has 29 days, the next of which will occur in 2020.

In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.

Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.

There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.

North Atlantic Tropical activity is at a minimum. From 1851 to 2018 there has been only one Tropical Storm to occur, 70 MPH Tropical Storm #1, which affected Florida on February 2 & 3, 1952.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 39.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to 48.6 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 10 hours 35 minutes on February 1 to 11 hours 26 minutes on February 28.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

February 1 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 5:18 PM
February 14 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 5:31 PM
February 28 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 5:43 PM

For other locations go to http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php and input the locations and dates you are interested in.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month we find Mercury passing behind the Sun, or in “Superior Conjunction”, and then he begins moving into the Western Sky in the afterglow of sunset.

Mercury will reach Perihelion or his closest approach to the Sun in his elliptical orbit on February 25, when he will be 28,537,000 miles from the Sun.

Mercury will appear half lit, or at “Dichotomy”, similar to a first quarter moon on February 26.

On 26 February, Mercury reaches his highest altitude of 18°E above the horizon in the western evening sky, also called ”Greatest Eastern Elongation” and then begins sinking lower into the Sunset.

Venus, magnitude –4.3, rises above the east-southeast horizon well before the first glimmer of dawn. Together with Jupiter, they dominate the southeast by the time dawn begins to brighten.

In a telescope Venus is dazzling white and slightly gibbous.

Mars, magnitude +0.8, in Pisces left of the Great Square of Pegasus, glows high in the southwest at nightfall and sets around 11 p.m.

Mars passes into the constellation Aries on 13 February, and the same day is a degree north of Uranus. More on this a little later.

In a telescope Mars appears as a tiny gibbous blob.

Jupiter, magnitude –1.9, in Virgo rises in the east-southeast well before the first glimmer of dawn with brilliant Venus nearby. Jupiter will be 50 times dimmer than Venus’s due mostly to Jupiter’s 7-times-greater distance from the illuminating Sun.

Jupiter rises from the dawn about four hours in advance of the sun, mid-month.

Saturn, magnitude +0.5, is low in the eastern morning sky in Sagittarius emerging from the glow of dawn. About 30 minutes before sunrise, use binoculars to look for it just above the horizon far to the lower left of Venus.

Saturn will pass just South of the Moon on February, passing with a half diameter of the Moon.

Uranus, shining at a borderline naked eye brightness of +5.8 at the Aries-Pisces border, is well up in the southwest right after dark.

Uranus is visible in binoculars if you know where to look for him. But, how do you find that magical spot?

Mars is going to help us locate him this month, as Mars will pass just South of Uranus on February 12, passing within 0°58′ of each other.

From Birmingham, the pair will become visible at around 6:05 PM as the dusk sky fades, 54° above the south-western horizon. They will then sink towards the horizon, setting 5 hours and 8 minutes after the Sun at 10:36 PM.

The pair will be a little too widely separated to fit comfortably within the field of view of a telescope, but will be visible through a pair of binoculars.

Neptune, shining at magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is very low in the west-southwest right after dark

3890 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

New Moon will occur at 9:04 AM CST or 15:04 UTC on Monday, February 4, as the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.
This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on February 4, when she will be 252,622 miles from Earth.
Full Moon will occur Tuesday, February 19 at 9:53 AM CST or 15:53 UTC.

February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore, since the heaviest snows usually fell at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on February 19, when she will be 221,681 miles from Earth.

The February sky is alit with bright stars. Orion the Hunter is overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky.

February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane.

Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness.

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The Birmingham Hamfest http://birminghamfest.org/ is now only five weeks away, Friday and Saturday March 1 & 2 at its new home at the Trussville Civic Center. For more information go to http://birminghamfest.org/

This month’s meeting will be on February 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database