ALERT NEWSLETTER – June 2022

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well as we ease into summer!

With the world having for the most part, reopened I trust that you are getting back into the swing of things. Enjoying outings, the great outdoors, concerts, ballgames or just puttering around with friends.

Enjoy things now, for soon the heat of summer will arrive and we will be wishing for snow.

I will be trying to keep a promise I made during a frigid day a few months back and not complain about the heat.

Back, then I said, “I’m ready for summer, mosquitoes are my friends!”

I much prefer summer heat, but I just might have to renege on the latter part.

We shall see.

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Where Is Everyone?

I have always been interested in ham radio statistics, especially since I have heard for 40 plus years now what deplorable shape the hobby is in.

So where do we stand?

As of May 26, 2022, not counting club or organization licenses, there are 776,471 individual ham radio licenses in the US, 12,299 of which are in Alabama.

The Fourth Call Area leads the nation in new callsigns, having entered the KQ calls, while other areas lag, in some cases by quite a margin, in the alphabet soup.

Some of the latest sequential callsigns in descending alphabetical order are:

KQ4AWF
KN6UKR
KK7GLB
KI5VOA
KF0JMF (which we call “zero land” but is actually the Tenth Call Area)
KE8UZR
KD9VGG
KD2ZOQ
KC3UHS
KC1RIF

One question which comes to mind is what callsign format will the FCC use once they reach KZ4ZZZ in ten years or so?

Will they start with AA3AAA – AL4ZZZ? They can’t go any higher, because Spain and other countries are allocated AM – AZ and they can’t issue A4AAA calls because they belong to Oman.

My best guess is they will start with NA calls, such as NA4AAA.

Another possibility is that they could resume issuing 2×3 W calls which they suddenly stopped issuing when they switched to the KA4### format.

The last sequential WD4 call was WD4SNE in South Carolina in 1978.

Examples of the evolution of US ham calls are:

AU (before 1912 they just made them up)
1AW (after 1912)
W1AW
W4CUE
K4UMD (my Elmer)
WA4XYZ
WB4XYZ
WD4NYL (me)
KA4AAA – KQ4ZZZ

There is a gap in the sequence between the WB & WD calls. WC was reserved for control stations in linked systems. Also, there were the old WN calls for Novices, which when they upgraded were converted to a different permanent callsign. Some were allowed to remain WNs when the new format debuted. WR was reserved for repeaters and WX for experimental stations.

There were already 2 x 3 K callsigns in existence before the format change. These were issued to US hams outside of the continental US. Such as:

KC4 – Antarctica
KH – US Pacific islands
KL7 – Alaska
KP2 – US Virgin Islands
KP4 – Puerto Rico
KZ4 – Canal Zone

Incidentally, the move to the KA format was condemned by some as being “the death knell of ham radio….they are making a way for those 20 million CBers to come in.” Since they vaguely resembled the CB callsign format. For instance my CB callsign issued in 1976 was or I say still is KAJD8693.

But, somehow ham radio survived and on paper at least, thrived.

There are at least four times as many licensed hams today as when I started in 1977. Which this leads to the question posed in the title – where is everyone?

There is one repeater in Birmingham that sees consistent activity – 146.140 MHz. Occasionally you hear people on 146.880 MHz, but it is certainly not haunted by hams as it was in the 80’s and 90’s.

The HF bands are quiet. You hear a few stations on, but, with the exception of contest weekends, they are the land of wide open spaces. During contests suddenly the bands miraculously open for the contest and there are dozens upon dozens of stations on the air. Then the contest concludes, and the ionosphere suddenly evaporates and again you here plenty of nothing.
There are various theories as to why, though there are more licenses now than ever, hams seem to have disappeared into thin air:

Woefully inaccurate numbers – Some point out that since it is a 10 year license. some may have been dead for years but are still listed. This is true, but, even if 50% of us have gone to the Great Ham Shack in the sky that would still leave 388,000 hams that ought to be being heard somewhere.

Another theory is that the operators are there, and on the air, but with so many modes available they are scattered all over creation in their own little niches, where in the past they would all be clustered on one of the few repeaters out there. Specialization has scattered the flock.

Also, it might be the case where we turn on the radio, and hearing nothing, say “the band is dead” and just cut off the radio and get back on Facebook so we can argue about politics and post cat memes.

But is the band actually dead?

Many times, if you listen above and below a ham band you will hear heavy activity, whether from Short Wave broadcasters or utility stations, such as marine, aeronautical stations and nondescript squeaks, squawks and squeals of various digital modes. Then you tune across the ham band and hear plenty of nothing.

That “dead band” is open also, but there just is no one home to use it.

There has also always been the question “the numbers look good, but how many are really active?” It can also be asked “how do you define active?” One QSO per day? Per Month? Per season? In my case I might go weeks without transmitting and then suddenly have a spurt of talking coast to coast, and then time crunches reappear, and I am back to my cat memes.

For whatever the reason that the bands are ghost towns and I have my share of blame.

One of the greatest tools for promoting ham radio is “hamming it up”.

Though I discovered ham radio by listening to nets dealing with tornado outbreaks, what “hooked” me into wanting to become a ham radio operator was just listening to hams on the air on a VHF “police radio”. Just hearing regular random rag chews and realizing “this is fun, I want to do this.”

Our greatest recruitment tool is just being on the air talking and having a good time. Leading by example and showing that “this is fun you really don’t want to miss out on.”

So, I have resolved to get back on the air more often. It may not be a daily occurrence, but my goal is to become consistently active. WD4NYL will be on the air, somewhere, if not on 2 meters, then polluting HF.

I challenge you to do likewise

Let’s show people just how “radioactive” we can really be.

 

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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm began issuing outlooks on May 15.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

This outlook represents an increase from last years outlook and the seventh consecutive year for a possible above normal season.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting above normal seasons.

This is due to warmer Atlantic Temperatures, La Nina conditions, weaker tropical trade winds and an enhanced West African monsoon. An enhanced monsoon supports stronger storm systems or easterly waves which are the seeds for many of the strongest and longest lived storms.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition, this is the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see, and it grows a little longer year by year.

The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 5:30PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

What harm was done? You might ask.

First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment will keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.

So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website, which is slowly being updated, www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

For the most reliable information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.

The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.

Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.

Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources.

Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.

That includes my wise prognostications also.

Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that Queen Elizabeth is a shape shifting lizard lady. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the Queen, it is still yet unproven.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2021 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2021 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

Air pollution or the lack thereof can influence tropical activity. NOAA has found that a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the U.S. is linked to a 33% increase in Atlantic storm formation in the past couple decades, while the opposite is happening in the Pacific with more pollution and fewer typhoons. Less pollution lets more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and vice versa.

Saharan sand blown across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will limit tropical development by blocking sunlight. This is a common occurrence which happens every spring and summer.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.

The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.

The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 5 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.

If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.

One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.

The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.

It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.

The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.

Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7

This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2021 there have been 98 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +4.1 in Taurus, is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise, As the month progresses, he rises higher in the morning sky reaching his highest point above the horizon in the morning sky or “Greatest Western Elongation” of 23.2 degrees from the Sun on June 16,

Venus, magnitude -4.0 in Pisces, rises soon after the beginning of dawn. She will continue to rise around the beginning of dawn continuing through August.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Taurus.

Mars, magnitude +0.6 in Pisces, in the early morning hours and during dawn in the east-south near bright Jupiter. The two planets are in conjunction sitting side by side in the predawn sky. After the beginning of the month Mars will slowly move away from his neighbor.

Mars will reach his closest approach to the Sun or “perihelion” on June 21, 1,284,000 miles.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.8, is in Gemini.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2, in Pisces, as mentioned above is in conjunction with Mars.

Saturn, magnitude +0.7, in Capricorn, is 40° or four fist widths right or upper right of Jupiter before dawn.

“About” is a good qualifier as not everyone has the same sized paw.

This comes to play also with the rule “you can determine the hours of Sunlight left in a day using an outstretched hand with the bottom touching the horizon. Each finger is 15 minutes and the full four fingers represent an hour.” The rule doesn’t take into account if you have a slender paw or one the size of a baseball mitt.

That’s why you should use your watch experiment and see what works for you. I hae to add my thumb to get the equation to work.

Uranus, 5.9 in Aries, is lost in the eastern dawn.

Neptune, 7.8 magnitude in Pisces, is 9° west or right of Jupiter before dawn begins.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Pluto, which was discovered February 18, 1930, takes 248.9 Earth years to complete and orbit around the Sun. He will complete his first orbit since his discovery Monday, March 23, 2178.

I know I can’t wait!

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude 17.1 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least four additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Serpens.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

5035 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June at 252,395 Miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 7 at 9:49 AM or 14:49 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 14 at 6:52 AM CDT or 11:52 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

This is also the first of three supermoons for 2022. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 14 at 222,099 Miles.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 20 at 10:11 PM CDT or 04:11 UTC on June 21.

Summer Solstice will occur at 4:05 AM CDT or 09:05 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

A near New Moon should not interfere with this unpredictable shower.

New Moon will occur June 28 at 9:23 PM CDT or 02:53 UTC on June 29. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 29 at 252,638 Miles.

Around 10PM in mid-June, Libra the Scales will be passing due South. When Alpha Librae, the lower-right of the two brightest stars of Libra, is due south, if you look directly below it you will see nothing but horizon. But, if you were at a lower latitude, say 29°, the latitude of Orlando, or points south would see our brilliant, -0.27 magnitude neighbor Alpha Centauri above the horizon.

At 4.37 light years distance, the Alpha Centauri system is nearest star system to our own.

It is a triple star consisting of Alpha Centauri A, also called Rigil Kentaurus, Alpha Centauri B or Toliman and the closest star to the Sun, Alpha Centauri C also called Proxima Centauri, 4.24 light years from Earth,

Alpha Centauri A is a near twin of our Sun in almost every way, including age, while Alpha Centauri B is somewhat smaller and dimmer but still quite like the Sun. The third member, Proxima Centauri is a much smaller red dwarf star that travels around the A-B pair.

Proxima Centauri has three known planets: Proxima b, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone or so called “Goldilocks Zone” – not too hot and not too cold to support some form of life if it has a suitable atmosphere. Proxima c, a super-Earth, which is possibly surrounded by a huge ring system and Proxima d, which orbits very closely to the star.

Alpha Centauri A may have a Neptune-sized habitable-zone planet, though it is not yet known to be planetary in nature and could be an artifact of the discovery mechanism. Alpha Centauri B has no known planets.

If Mr. Musk will hurry with his secret warp drive project, I’m all packed up and ready for the ultimate DXpedition.

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This month’s meeting will be on June 14. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter