ALERT NEWSLETTER – May 2022

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well

This newsletter sets a milestone as we now have completed 15 years of publication.

I appreciate the support you have given me through these years, and I look forward to seeing where this journey leads us.

Remember, this is YOUR newsletter, and your input and articles are welcome and appreciated.

May your May be a happy one!

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Uh, what?

That was the reaction online recently by some meteorologists when the Storm Prediction Center issued Tornado Watch #159, covering Central Oklahoma.

In addition to the tornado threat, it was mentioned “isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely.” But what caught their eyes was a graphic that was circulated which contained the text “HAIL Scattered Hail Up To DVD Size Likely.”

DVD size?

The largest hail size reference I had heard of was “softball” size hail.

So, I did some research and per the NWS Syracuse Indiana Office there is indeed a DVD size Category.

Beaufort Wind Scale (Estimated wind speeds) (weather.gov)

Their Hail Size Comparison Scale is:

BB <.25 inches
Pea .25 inches
Dime 7/10 inches
Penny ¾ inches
Nickel 7/8 inches
Quarter 1 inch
Half Dollar 1¼ inches
Golf ball 1 ¾ inches
Billiard ball 2 1/8 inches
Tennis ball 2.5 inches
Baseball 2.75 inches
Softball 3.8 inches
CD/DVD 4.75 inches

There has always been a question as to “pea size”. Are referring to English peas, field peas, sweet peas, black-eyed peas and so forth.

Which is why locally we steer clear of “pea sized”. That, plus it is below the “severe” threshold.

Now in fairness to the Syracuse office, the Storm Reporting form on the Birmingham NWS site Submit a Storm Report (weather.gov) while varying the peas size report to range from .25 to .5 inches, also include Walnut size 1.5 inches, hen egg size 2.00 inches, teacup size 3.00 inches, grapefruit size 4 inches and “giant” size larger than 4.5 inches.

Going with the flow, I think we should expand the charts to include:

45 RPM Record 7 inches
Volleyball 8.15 – 8.39inches
Bowling ball 8.5 inches
Soccer ball (regulation) 8.5 – 9 inches
Basketball 9.4 inches
78 RPM Record 10 inches
33 ½ LP 12 Inches

How fast do hailstones fall?

Per the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory – NSSL: “For small hailstones (<1-inch in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 9 and 25 mph. For hailstones that one would typically see in a severe thunderstorm (1-inch to 1.75-inch in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 25 and 40 mph. In the strongest supercells that produce some of the largest hail one might expect to see (2-inches to 4-inches in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 44 and 72 mph. However, there is much uncertainty in these estimates due to variability in the hailstone’s shape, degree of melting, fall orientation, and the environmental conditions. However, it is possible for very large hailstones (diameters exceeding 4-inches) to fall at over 100 mph.”

The speed at which a hailstone (or rain) strikes the ground is referred to as “Terminal Velocity”.

Hailstones the size of DVDs hitting one’s noggin should be “terminal” enough.

Just go ahead and ship my saddle home.

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2022 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2022 tropical season, which runs from June 1 to November 30

Their forecast predicts an above average season with 19 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect 9 to become hurricanes and 4 to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

There is 71% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States.
There is 52% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the US East coast including the Florida Peninsula.
There is 46% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville Texas.

AccuWeather released its 2022 Atlantic hurricane forecast earlier. Their outlook also calls for an “above average season with 16 to 20 named storms. Of those storms, 7 to 8 are forecast to become hurricanes; and 4 to 6 are likely to hit the United States.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook on May 15.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season had 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes 4 of which were major. 8 hurricanes directly impacted the United States.

The forecasts just given both are calling for a season more severe than the 2021 season.

The 2022 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie & Walter.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2027. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. Which is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms of the past.

If so many storms occur that the 2022 list is depleted, the storm names will revert to the World Meteorological Organization supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

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2022 Tornado Totals As Of Mid-April

In the previous article I mentioned that a“ Normal” hurricane season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

But, what about tornadoes?

According to the Storm Prediction Center, the United States averages 1,251 tornadoes per year.

How is 2022 stacking up so far?

As of April 2 1, there had been 534 tornadoes reported in 23 states.

As of April 18, Alabama lead the nation in tornado warnings, with 115, Mississippi was second with 10 and Texas, which covers a lot of acreage, had 104 warnings.

As of April 18, Alabama was second in tornado watches covering a least one county in the state , with 46, just 3 behind Arkansas with 49, and ahead of Mississippi’s 42 watches.

As of April 21, central Alabama had had 39 confirmed tornadoes. The 2021 total was 47 for the entire year while the average number of tornadoes per year for the past 30 years is 27.

The most tornadoes that have touched down in Central Alabama in a year was in 2011, when 78 tornadoes hit the central part of the state, 29 being from the Super Outbreak of April 27.

We are already well above average, and 8 away from central Alabama’s last year’s total, and the late spring and fall tornado seasons have yet to occur.

Statewide tornado numbers as of mid-April 2022 are:

NWS Birmingham 39
NWS Huntsville 7
NWS Mobile 20
NWS Tallahassee 3
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Grand Total 69 Tornadoes

While the focus of late April tornadic activity has shifted to the Midwest, the Dixie Alley could refire, and the Fall season isn’t that for away.

Always keep a jaundiced eye towards the sky and stay aware of possible upcoming threats.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2021 there have been 27 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Aries.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +1,2 in Aries, is low in the west-northwest in the fading twilight.

He will soon be lost in the glow of the sunset and will pass between the Earth and the Sun or be in “Inferior Conjunction” on May 21.

Venus, magnitude -4.2 in Aquarius shines low in the east-southeast as dawn brightens, with Jupiter nearby.

Venus will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on May 15.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Taurus.

Mars, magnitude 0.9, in Aquarius, rises around 3:49 a.m. Start looking for Mars around 4:40a.m. as he clears trees and buildings.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Taurus.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.1, in Pisces, rises around 4:27 a.m. and is low above the horizon around 5:20 a.m.

Saturn, magnitude +0.8, in Capricorn, rises around 3:06 a.m. Start looking for Saturn around 4:00 a.m. in the southeastern sky

Uranus, magnitude +5.9 in Aries, is hidden behind the glare of the Sun.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8 in Aquarius, though unobservable in the dawn glow, is in the background of Jupiter.

Four planets, Neptune, Jupiter, Venus, Mars and Saturn are arrayed across the predawn morning Sky. Four are visible, with Jupiter and Venus being bright “morning stars” and fainter Mars & Saturn trailing and slowly moving apart.

This is a great opportunity to see half the solar systems planets at a glance.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude 17.1 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least four additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Serpens.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

5017 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 19, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 5 at a distance of 251,834 miles.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It can produce up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 40 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The waxing crescent moon will set early in the evening, leaving dark skies for what should be an excellent show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur May 8 at 1:21 PM or 18:21 UTC. During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0

Full Moon will occur May 15th at 11:15 PM CDT or 04:15 UTC, May 16. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on May 15 & 16. A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color.

The eclipse will be visible throughout North America, Greenland, the Atlantic Ocean, and parts of western Europe and western Africa.

In Birmingham the eclipse timings are:

Eclipse Begins 8:32 PM
Partial Eclipse Begins 9:27 PM
Total Eclipse Begins 10:29 PM
Maximum Eclipse 11:11 PM
Total Eclipse Ends 11:53 PM
Partial Eclipse Ends 12:55 AM
Eclipse Ends 1:50 AM

During the maximum eclipse the lunar magnitude will drop to +1.414

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest distance from Earth on May 17, when she will be 223,879 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 22 at 7:43 AM or 12:43 UTC. During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0

New Moon will occur on May 30 at 6:32 CDT or 11:32 UTC. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

In the Northern Sky the Big Dipper, part of Ursa Major, the Great Bear, begins the month
upside down, “spilling its water” on Polaris, the North Star, which is the tip of the handle of the Little Dipper or Ursa Minor, the Little Bear.

Interestingly, the Big and Little Dippers are arranged so that when one is upright, the other is upside down. In addition, their handles appear to extend in opposite directions. Of course, the Big Dipper is by far the brighter of the two, appearing as a long-handled pan, while the Little Dipper resembles a dim ladle.

The Big Dipper is called by other names. In the Netherlands it’s the “Saucepan”, “The Plough” in England and “The Great Wagon” in other parts of Europe.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 10. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter