ALERT NEWSLETTER – May 2021

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you and yours well.

After months of enduring the COVID crises and its associated effects it seems there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Soon, hopefully, life will return to it’s normal routines of gatherings, outings and dare I say, ALERT meetings at the NWS.

People have mixed feeling about the vaccines. My friend Cooter Ray at the bait and tackle shop assures me that its bad news, with all the secret nanoprobes, it resequencing everyone’s RNA, DNA, NCAA and such, not to mention the secret invisible tracking tattoos that the little bandage gizmos they use on you imprint you with. He knows it’s true, after all he saw it on YouTube.

My doctor, on the other hand, who perhaps has just a little more knowledge than Cooter Ray, seems to think it is a good idea to be vaccinated.

My doctor I would trust to operate on me, Cooter Ray not so much so, since he probably wouldn’t even clean the fish innards off the knife, and since it seems odd that I would trust my doctor with every other facet of my health except for vaccine shots, I went ahead and received both shots.

The nanobots have actually improved my radio reception. The genetic resequencing has removed all my wrinkles, turned my hair brown again and my wisdom teeth have grown back. The tracking gizmo has proved to be a disappointment as Siri and Alexa do a much better job.

So, I say go ahead and get the shots.

If I am “being a sheep” as some might say, at least I’ll be a healthy one.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2021 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2021 tropical season, which runs from June 1 to November 30

Their forecast predicts an above average season with 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect 8 to become hurricanes and 4 to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. There is 69% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States.

AccuWeather released its 2021 Atlantic hurricane forecast earlier. Their outlook also calls for an above average season with 16 to 20 named storms. Of those storms, 7 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes; and 3 to 5 are likely to hit the United States.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook on May 15.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes was the most active and the fifth costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record and the second season which exhausted the supply of names, causing the NHC to resort to using the Greek alphabet for names.

The forecasts just given both call for a season more severe than the 2020 season.

The Atlantic Hurricane names for 2021 are: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.

The World Meteorological Association – WMO has decided to retire the use of the Greek alphabet for tropical storms, which had to be resorted to in the 2005 and 2020 seasons when they ran out of names.

A couple of factors which led to this decision included the problem of replacing a name if a storm name was retired due to the severity of the storm. With regular names they just replaced the name with another. For instance “Bill” could be replaced with “Bubba”. But how do you replace the retired letters in the Greek alphabet – Eta & Iota?

Also, the Greek alphabet – Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc. isn’t in “alphabetical order”, and so was confusing. Some thought that Gamma was the seventh letter instead of the third.

To cure this problem the WMO has created a Supplemental List of names to be used should the regular allotment be exhausted: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

With Bill in the Main List and Will in the Supplemental, I have two chances of making the cut, since my middle name is William.

With those odds maybe I better call Vegas…

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

 

Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2020 there have been 26 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Aries.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude -1.1 in Aries, is emerging in the west-northwestern horizon after twilight,

He will reach “Dichotomy” or half lit stage like a First Quarter Moon on May 11.

On May 17 he will reach his highest point in the evening sky or “Greatest Eastern Elongation when he will be 22 degrees above the horizon.

This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky.

Below Mercury, Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Aries, is emerging into the evening sky just above the west-northwest horizon.

Scan with binoculars just above the west-northwest horizon starting about 15 – 30 minutes after sunset during a brief window of visibility between when the sky is too bright, and the planets get too low and disappear into the twilight haze and then below the horizon. The exact best time after sunset will depend on your latitude, the farther north the better and the clarity of the air.

At the beginning of the month Mercury will be 4.5 degrees above Venus. By May 28 they will be 4 degrees or one moon-width apart. Venus will maintain its brightness, but Mercury will be fading.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Libra.

Mars, magnitude 1.5, in Gemini, glows in the west after dark. In a telescope he is just a tiny shimmering blob.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Pisces.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2 and Saturn, magnitude +0.7, in Capricorn, rise more than an hour before the first light of dawn. As dawn begins, spot them low in the southeast. Jupiter will the brighter of the two, with Saturn to Jupiter’s right or upper right. Saturn is one fifteenth as bright a mighty Jupiter.

On May 23 Saturn will stop his usual eastward motion through the stars and will very slowly appear to begin moving in the opposite direction westward. Or more technically “Saturn will enter retrograde motion.”

This reversal of direction is a phenomenon that all the solar system’s outer planets periodically undergo, a few months before they reach opposition, or when they are directly opposite the Sun, with the Earth located in between.

The retrograde motion is caused by the Earth’s own motion around the Sun. As the Earth circles the Sun, our perspective or view of an object changes as we approach, catch up to and then pass an object.

The planets move at their own constant speed and track. When the Earth catches up it is like passing a slow-moving car that’s stuck in the left lane. When we pass it, it momentarily appears to be going backwards against background objects and then once we are passed, the illusion disappears.

Similarly, the outer planets retrograde motion, which if plotted out is a line with a loop in the middle, is temporarily super-imposed on the planet’s long-term eastward motion through the constellations as the Earth passes them in the right lane.

This isn’t a dramatic or “golly gee” event. Unless you are tracking nightly with a star chart, you may never even notice that this celestial loop de loop has been occurring

Uranus and Neptune are hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring, and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

4375 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 1, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 3.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It can produce up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 40 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The Last Quarter moon will block out some of the faintest meteors this year. But if you are patient, you should be able to catch quite a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur on May 11 at 2:01PM CDT or 19:01 UTC. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 11 at a distance of 252,595 miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur May 19.

Full Moon will occur May 25th at 6:14 AM CDT or 11:14 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

This is also the second of three supermoons for 2021. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on May 26. A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color.

The eclipse will be visible throughout the Pacific Ocean and parts of eastern Asia, Japan, Australia, and western North America.

Birmingham will see a Partial Eclipse.

The first traces or Penumbral Eclipse will begin at 3:47 AM
Partial Eclipse will begin at 4:44 AM
Maximum Eclipse for Birmingham will occur at 5:41 AM

This is the moment when the eclipse reaches its greatest coverage while the entire Moon is still above the horizon in Birmingham. The true maximum point of this eclipse cannot be seen in Birmingham because the Moon will be below the horizon at that time.

Since the Moon is near the horizon at this time, it is recommended that you go to a high point or an unobstructed area with a clear view to the West-southwest for the best view of the eclipse before Moonset at 5:44 AM, 4 minutes after Sunrise.

In the Northern Sky the Big Dipper, part of Ursa Major, the Great Bear, begins the month
upside down, “spilling its water” on Polaris, the North Star, which is the tip of the handle of the Little Dipper or Ursa Minor, the Little Bear.

Interestingly, the Big and Little Dippers are arranged so that when one is upright, the other is upside down. In addition, their handles appear to extend in opposite directions. Of course, the Big Dipper is by far the brighter of the two, appearing as a long-handled pan, while the Little Dipper resembles a dim ladle.

The Big Dipper is called by other names. In the Netherlands it’s the “Saucepan”, “The Plough” in England and “The Great Wagon” in other parts of Europe.

I can understand the thinking with these. However, for the life of me I have never been able to visualize a bear, big or small.

Maybe it is like in the Song of Solomon where the guy tells his lover “I have compared thee, Oh, my love, to a company of horses in Pharoah’s chariots…thy hair is as a flock of goats…thy teeth are like a flock of sheep that are even shorn…”.

Today telling a girl “my darling, you remind me of a horse, your hair look like a bunch of goats and your teeth could belong to a herd of hairless sheep”. Well, somehow, I just don’t see that working.

I guess you just had to be there to understand it.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

 

This month’s meeting will be on May 11. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/