ALERT NEWSLETTER – April 2021

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you safe and well.

Our hearts go out to those affected by the recent tornado outbreaks. These tragic events go to underscore the danger and vulnerability we all face from a tornado that season is far from over.

Seeing that the threat is real and ongoing, make sure you have a plan in place and a safe place in mind, both at home, school and at work should a tornado threaten you or your loved ones.

Pay attention to forecasts – possible tornado threats are usually forecast days in advance.

Pay attention Watches and Warnings – have multiple reliable ways to receive them wherever you
may be located.

Pay attention to the conditions around you – brief spin up tornados can occur between radar
scans or in areas of problematic radar coverage, either due to the distance from the radar, signal obstructions or atmospheric conditions affecting the radar returns.

Do understand that with the exception of the NWS, state and local authorities, and local news media, not everyone will give you good instructions as to what to do in an emergency and social media is perhaps one of the worst sources, as everyone is an “expert”.

Also, be aware of well-meaning misinformed people.

For example, I was talking to a friend who said that he was in a major department store when the tornado warning was issued. They made everyone get into the center of the store.

Similarly, when I worked for another major department store, their tornado action plan to take time to count down cash registers (which would probably be have blown away anyway) and also to put us in the center of the store, where the kitchen knives and forks sat waiting to be sailed into us by the wind.

In both cases they were actually putting people in one of the most vulnerable parts of the building. The center of the store, which is the weakest point of the building, for the roof is subject to collapse due to weight of the accumulated rain load, not to mention the winds tearing at the roof.

When I pointed out to my manager that this was not the best idea, I was confidently, if not smugly assured that “this is what our experts recommend”.

Another group of experts, namely the Storm Prediction Center recommends “In a shopping mall or large store: Do not panic. Watch for others. Move as quickly as possible to an interior bathroom, storage room or small enclosed area, away from windows.”

A small room, against an interior wall, or under a staircase is much safer than sheltering under
the center of a large freestanding roof.

 

My recommendation is that you learn for yourselves the proper precautions are and take the necessary steps for protecting the lives of you and your loved ones.

Heed the advice of learned authorities and reliable sources, as they know what is or may be about to happen and any overriding circumstances and conditions that may be present that may alter the usual recommended actions.

See: Tornado Safety (Online Tornado FAQ) (noaa.gov)

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Important Changes To The Amateur Radio Service

Perhaps you have heard of the recent FCC decision regarding the future of Amateur Radio.

If you have heard, I am sure that you are just as disturbed by this troubling news as I am.
But, just in case you have not heard this most distressing news, I will repeat their statement here in its entirety:

“In response to unrelenting complaints by the certain of the amateur community regarding the easing of amateur radio testing requirements, and to enable the continued education and certification processes needed to ensure that the national pool of amateur radio operators possess the technical and operational skills and knowledge necessary to provide effective communications during emergencies, effective September 31, 2021 the Federal Communications Commission will require all licensed amateurs to begin taking remedial examinations. To maintain current license class or to remain licensed, all US amateur radio operators must complete the reexamination process by September 31, 2022. Retesting will also be required for all license renewals and must be completed within one year prior to submitting the renewal application.

For further information, contact James X. Shorts, Assistant Liaison to the Deputy Chief of Public Relations for the FCC at (202) 555-1212 or jim.shorts@fcc.gov. For more news and information about the FCC, please visit www.fcc.gov“

I must admit that this has me troubled and perplexed.

I would be even more troubled and perplexed if it was actually true.

In other words….

APRIL FOOL!

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Tornado Terminology

During the recent outbreaks I found that there is still much confusion with the general public concerning tornado terminology, and you may find yourself having to explain the differences in meaning to others.

A TORNADO WATCH means “Weather conditions could lead to the formation of severe storms and tornadoes. BE PREDARED: Know your safe location. Be ready to act quickly if a Warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching.”

A TORNADO WARNING means “A tornado has been spotted or indicated by weather radar, meaning a tornado is occurring or expected soon. TAKE ACTION: There is imminent danger to life and property. Immediately seek refuge in the safest location possible.”

A TORNADO EMERGENCY means “An exceedingly rare situation with a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage due to a confirmed violent tornado. TAKE ACTION. There is imminent danger to life and property. Immediately seek refuge in the safest location possible”

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The Jefferson County ARES Net New Frequency

The Jefferson County ARES Net has made a major change as it will be operating on the Healthcare Community Amateur Radio Club – HCARC repeater system on 146.760 MHz – KK4BSK.

This change was made due to 76 having several advantages over the BARC 146.880 MHz repeater which had been in use, such as having a much wider footprint, multiple inputs, Echolink capability and the absence of the beacon interference which hampered weak signals from being heard.

While the 76 repeater will be the Primary ARES repeater, 88 will maintain a vital role as the secondary frequency and may be used as a tactical frequency for damage reports, flooding reports, logistical support and as the backup repeater should 76 become disabled.

Like 88, 76 has a minus 600 kHz offset.
The main repeater pl tone is 88.5 Hz
The Southwestern remote pl is 94.8 Hz
The Eastern remote pl is 114.8 Hz
The Western remote pl is 131.8 Hz

I suggest you program them all, that way if one remote goes down, you probably can hit another.
I also would program 146.760 simplex. That way if the repeater goes down, or you are unable to reach one of the remotes it may still be possible for someone to hear you after the repeater carrier drops. It’s an old emergency trick of the trade.

There are some things you can do to help make this transition easier. One is to check in to the ARES Net on Tuesday night at 8 PM. Two, if you are listening to 88 during an emergency and someone come on the repeater looking for the Net, advise them of the frequency change so they can find the Net. Thirdly, if they have emergency or priority traffic or storm reports and cannot reach 76, then take their report or traffic verbatim and relay it to the Net on 76.

I say verbatim so that details which may not seem important, but in fact are aren’t lost in the translation. If something, such as a location or name has an uncommon spelling, it should be spelled out and street / cross-street locations should be used to avoid confusion.

A special thanks is to be given to the Healthcare Community Amateur Radio Club HCARC for making this resource available.

The 146.76 repeater is a repeater of historical significance. It is one of the oldest, if not the oldest repeater in the Birmingham area. It was operated for decades by the H & H Repeater Organization run by Hop Hays, K4TQR and Henry Wingate, K4HAL. They donated the repeater to HCARC to help further their mission of providing emergency communications assistance to the Jefferson County Health Care Coalition -JCHCC and surrounding HCC’s using amateur radio during emergencies and for promoting, participating in, and providing emergency/disaster-based communications training.

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Generational Tornadoes

Every year the United States sees tornadoes and tornado outbreaks. The US leads the world in tornadoes and the southeast has the distinction of being the only place on the planet with two distinct tornado seasons, or perhaps a single season from November to April with two distinct peaks in the spring and fall.

Many factors must come together correctly for an outbreak to occur, but occasionally all the textbook ingredients of shear, moisture, temperatures, jet stream location and instability occur in a perfect combination. When this happens, you have a super outbreak. Because this happens usually once a generation, it is called a ”generational outbreak”

The earliest recorded tornado outbreak in the United States was the “Four-State Tornado Swarm” which occurred in New England on August 15, 1787, dropping at least 5 tornadoes. Whether the system that produced this outbreak was part of a larger system that may have dropped tornadoes in what would become the Southeastern US is impossible to tell, for this area was sparsely populated and there was virtually no communications with the region other than frontier dispatches, rumors, legends and tall tales.

As time progressed there are scattered reports of tornadoes in Alabama, but, no definite indications of outbreaks, though perhaps there are hints with the tornadoes of May 6, 1866 which struck Perry & Talladega Counties & the tornadoes of May 5, 1869 which struck Pickens, Tuscaloosa, and Talladega Counties. These occurring on the same day give hints of a broader organized event.

A larger outbreak occurred on November 22, 1874 affecting Greene, Shelby, Hale, Dallas. Colbert & Lauderdale Counties.

Pike, Chambers and Lee Counties were affected by tornadoes associated with the March 10 – 20 1875 Southeast Tornado Outbreak which dropped at least 19 tornadoes over the Southeast. The Chambers-Lee County tornado was posthumously rated as F4 and crossed the Chattahoochee River into Harris County Georgia. This tornado, which was possibly a multiple vortex tornado was the last “violent” tornado to strike Lee County until March 3, 2019.

Either due to much better reporting or the quirks of nature there seems to have been a serious uptick in activity in the 1880’s. Outbreaks occurred on March 27-28. 1882, affecting Dallas, Henry, Marengo, Pike, Butler, Washington, Madison, Lee and Barbour Counties and April 22-23, 1884 affecting Talladega, Jefferson, St. Clair, Randolph and Cherokee Counites all leading to 1884.

The first definitive “generational” tornado outbreak occurred on February 19-20, 1884 – the “Enigma Outbreak” – so called because the exact number of tornadoes and fatalities are unknown. There were at least 51 confirmed tornadoes and possibly over sixty during the 15-hour event.

The outbreak began during the late morning in Mississippi, preceded by severe thunderstorms in Louisiana. Shortly thereafter, the outbreak widened and intensified, progressing from Alabama to Virginia between noon and midnight with wave after wave of tornado families.

The Alabama outbreak consisted of the following tornadoes:

F2 – Lowndes County, MS & Pickens County from a storm originating in Columbus MS at 11:30 PM CST
F? – Pickens County at 12:00 PM CST
F2 – Coosa County at 12:30 PM CST

F4 – Jefferson & St. Clair Counties at 1:20 PM CST. This tornado produced over 13 deaths, the storm moved from Oxmoor, in what is now the Homewood area, Northeast through the Cahaba Valley. Most intense damage was in the industrial area of Leeds, where new, well-constructed homes were destroyed, some of them swept away along with their foundations

F4 – Talladega, Calhoun, Cherokee Counties & Floyd County GA at 2:30 PM CST. This tornado produced 10 deaths just north of Piedmont, 14 deaths in a school at Goshen, and additional deaths and severe damage in the Rock Run area. Large homes destroyed near Cave Spring, Georgia. Years later another F4 tornado, closely following the path of this one, would hit the Piedmont–Goshen area and killed 20 people at the Goshen United Methodist in Piedmont on Palm Sunday, March 27, 1994.

F2 – Talladega & Calhoun Counties at 2:45 CST
F? – Perry County, time Unknown
F? – Cullman & Marshall Counties at 8:00 PM

Just 3 three weeks later another “nongenerational” outbreak would drop 5 more tornadoes on Alabama.

After an active 1895 season, except for an active April of 1899, tornado occurrences flatten out until 1908.

On April 23, 1908 a “generational” outbreak began that would be called the “Dixie Tornado Outbreak” which is tied with the 2011 Super Outbreak for the fourth deadliest tornado outbreak killing 320 people. Though Alabama was struck by only 4 of the 29 tornadoes spawned, one was an F4 or a family of long track tornadoes that stayed on the ground for 105 miles for nearly an hour and a half from Walker & Jefferson County, though Blount, Marshall and Dekalb Counties killing 35 and injuring 188.

This was before satellites, radar or radios. In fact, in those days forecasters were forbidden to try to predict tornadoes or even use the word “tornado” “to avoid public panic.”

Muggy weather, green skies, a roar, and a “cyclone” tearing up everything and everyone was about as much warning as was available.

Things weren’t much improved when the next “generational” outbreak, the 1932 Deep South Tornado outbreak occurred March 21-22, 1932, producing at least 36 tornadoes which killed 330, including 15 tornadoes and 268 deaths in Alabama. Alabama withstood eight F4 tornadoes.

The next “generational” outbreak would be called the “Day of 100 Tornadoes” or the 1974 Super Outbreak of April 3 – 4, 1974, which killed 315, including 86 in Alabama, which endured 8 of the 148 tornadoes spawned. Of particular note was the F5 tornado that devastated the town of Guin. This was the longest-duration tornado recorded in the outbreak at one hour forty minutes, travelling 79 miles, and is considered to be one of the most violent tornadoes ever recorded.

The detestation was so complete in one six block area that NWS damage surveyor Bill Herman, remarked that “It was just like the ground had been swept clean. It was just as much of a total wipeout as you can have”. J.B. Elliot noted that the destruction was so complete, that even some of the foundations were “dislodged, and in some cases swept away.”

It is possible that more tornadoes occurred than are recorded in the official tally. What was then “state of the art” radar for that time was now available, but it was very limited in its capabilities as compare to today’s Dual Pol Radar.

The one radar site in Alabama was at Centerville. This was the old WSR57, which had a CRT like a sonar screen in old submarine movies. Someone had to watch the screen constantly when storms were possible to make sure nothing important was missed and the storms were tracked using grease pencils, and the forecasters had to manually turn a crank to adjust the radar’s scan elevation.

Tornadoes were suspected if a thunderstorm displayed a hook shaped configuration, hence the term “hook echo”. So, without todays velocity display analyzing the storm wind fields and correlation coefficient displays indicating lofted debris, there may have been tornadoes in remote locations that were missed. But the forecasters did an admirable job considering with what they had to work with.

April 25-28, 2011 would see the next and latest “generational” outbreak producing 360 tornadoes, peaking with 217 on April 27. 29 of Alabama’s 62 tornadoes occurred in central Alabama in two distinct waves.

With modern “wall to wall” TV coverage viewers watched with morbid fascination and fear as tornado after tornado were tracked and watched as Cullman, Tuscaloosa & Birmingham were struck on live television.

So, we have seen that “generational outbreaks” occurred in 1884, 1908, 1932, 1974 and 2011, or roughly every 32 years, plus or minus 9 years or so. So, when will the next Super Outbreak occur? Logically somewhere between 2034 – 2052 centering on the year 2043.

But that is all tea leaves and elf smoke. As March of 2021 has displayed “normal outbreaks”, for lack of a better word, can occur at any time from November through March. It was a “normal” outbreak that produced the F5 “Smithfield” tornado that struck Jefferson county April 4, 1977, one of seven tornadoes that day and the April 8, 1998 outbreak which produced five tornadoes including the F5 “Oak Grove Tornado”.

Tropical systems can also produce tornado outbreaks, such as Hurricane Rita, which produced 21 tornadoes on September 25, 2008, 10 of which struck Tuscaloosa County.

It only takes one tornado to rearrange your life forever, and Isolated tornadoes can occur at any time of the year, as the single F4 tornado which destroyed McDonald’s Chapel on of April 15, 1956 demonstrates.

So, as we enter another April. keep these examples in mind, don’t live in fear, but do keep your eyes to the skies and have a reliable source for forecasts, watches and warnings.

For sooner rather than later, the skies will grow angry again.

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Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s is March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

Snowfall is still possible though, as April 3, 1987’s 5 inches proves. The latest trace of snow was April 25, 1910.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

North Atlantic Tropical activity remains at a minimum. From 1851 to 2020 there has never been a Hurricane and only two Tropical Storms – Ana in 2003 and Arlene in 2017 which affected only shipping.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2020, 9499 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2020, 1820 deaths and as of 2013, 29,090 injuries.

As of 2017, Oklahoma leads the nation in killer violent tornados, having had 64, followed by Iowa with 54, Texas with 53, Kansas with 48 and Alabama 44.

As of 2015, Alabama ranks fourth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. They along with Illinois belong to the “over 400 club” having had over 400 tornadoes since 1950.

As of 2017 Alabama leads the nation in F5 & EF5 tornadoes, having had 9, followed by Oklahoma and Kansas with 8, and a two-way tie for third between Iowa and Texas with 6.

As of 2016 Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths with 633, followed by Texas with 552 and Mississippi with 477.

The counties most likely to be struck by violent EF5 tornadoes are Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, Madison and Marion, all of which have been struck three times.

Tuscaloosa has been stuck by four F4 & EF4 tornadoes including 1932, 1975, 2000 & 2011.

The suburbs of Birmingham, including Oak Grove, Pleasant Grove, McDonald Chapel and Smithfield have been struck by two F4 & EF4 tornadoes in 1956 & 2011 and by two F5 tornadoes in 1977 & 1998.

My Grandfather, who passed away in 1958, once said “someday a big tornado is going to go right up Jones Valley and tear everything up”.

Indeed, there is no logical or climatological reason why and an EF4 or EF5 tornado hasn’t struck or won’t strike the densely populated areas of Birmingham, including the high rises of downtown.

Whether it is due to “Divine Providence” or “random chance” otherwise known as “luck”, Birmingham has been spared.

When will that luck run out?

From 1950 to 2020 the top ten counties for tornadoes are:

Jefferson – 100
Mobile – 98
Baldwin – 97
Cullman – 92
Madison – 80
Tuscaloosa – 77
Marshall = 72
Limestone & Dekalb – 65
Walker – 57
Blount – 53

There is no basis to the myth that mountains can block tornadoes, and yet there is the strange coincidence that from the southern terminus of the Appalachian Mountains at Tannehill State Park in Tuscaloosa & Bibb Counties northeastward through Jefferson, Shelby, Blount, St. Clair, Marshall, Etowah, Dekalb and Cherokee Counties there are roughly twice as many tornadoes on the windward side of the Appalachian mountain range than on the leeward side.

 

bycounty2020.jpg (893×692) (weather.gov)

But, no matter where you might be reading this, always beware of the storms of April.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 61.1 degrees at the beginning of the month to 71.3 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 12 hours 32 minutes on April 1 to 13 hours 29 minutes on April 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

April 1 Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:08 PM
April 15 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:18 PM
April 30 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:29 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.8 is in Pisces.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

He will pass behind the Sun or be in “Superior Conjunction” on April 18 and he will reach “Perihelion” or his closest distance to the Sun on April 26.

Venus is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Virgo

Mars, magnitude 1.2, in Taurus, will pass exceedingly close to the Moon, or be in “Occultation” on April 17, passing within 0.1°North of Moon at 6:09 AM CST. If you were in Asia, you would see Mars pass directly behind the Moon.

Total lunar occultations are only visible from a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Since the Moon is much closer to the Earth than other celestial objects, its exact position in the sky differs depending on your exact location on Earth due to its large parallax. The position of the Moon as seen from two points on opposite sides of the Earth varies by up to two degrees, or four times the diameter of the full moon.

Also, since the Moon is passes along the ecliptic, the apparent track of the solar systems objects beyond Earth, from our perspective the Moon is in a southerly direction, if you were in the southern hemisphere you would look north and so the Moon would appear upside down as compare to our view.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Cetus.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.1, in Capricorn and Saturn, magnitude +0.8, in Capricorn, have been slowly emerging into the dawn. You can spot them low in the southeast about 50 or 40 minutes before sunrise. Saturn is the higher of the two, but it’s much dimmer. Look for Jupiter some 12° to Saturn’s lower left, roughly a fist at arm’s length.

Saturn has entered his version of September.

Uranus, magnitude 5.9, is in Aries, is disappearing into the glow of the Sun. On April 30 he will pass behind the Sun or be in “Conjunction”.

Neptune, is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Except for the Earth and Mars, all the major planets are on the opposite side of the solar system.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

4367 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 15, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur April 4.

New Moon will occur on April 11 at 9:32 PM CST or 2:42 UTC on April 12. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on April 14, when she will be 252,351 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur April 20.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April 16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

The waxing gibbous Moon will block out all but the brightest meteors. But if you are patient you may still be able to catch a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Lyra but can appear anywhere in the sky.

April’s Full Moon will occur on April 26 at 10:33 PM CST or 03:33 UTC April 27. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as “Worm Moon”. So called because the rains disturb the earthworms & they are seen wiggling around after the rains.

This moon has also been known as the Full Crow Moon, the Full Crust Moon, the Full Sap Moon, and the Lenten Moon.

This is also the first of three supermoons for 2021. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

The Moon will be at her closest distance from Earth or perigee at 222,060 miles on April 27.

Evenings in early April offer an excellent opportunity to view the zodiacal light. Zodiacal light is a faint, roughly triangular whitish glow seen in the night sky which appears to extend up from the vicinity of the sun along the ecliptical plane. It is caused by sunlight scattered by space dust in the orbital plane of the Earth.

From the Northern Hemisphere, early spring is the best time of year to observe this elusive glow after sunset. It appears slightly fainter than the Milky Way, so you’ll need a clear moonless sky and an observing site located far from the city. Look for the cone-shaped glow, which points nearly straight up from the western horizon, after the last vestiges of twilight have faded away.

This is the time of year when the dim Little Dipper – Ursa Minor – juts to the right from the North Star, Polaris, which is the end of the Little Dipper’s handle, during late evening. The much brighter Big Dipper curls over high above it, “dumping water” into it. They do the reverse in the fall.

Now that it’s spring, the signature fall-and-winter constellation Cassiopeia is retreating down after dark. But for mid-northern latitudes Cassiopeia is circumpolar, never going away completely. Look for it fairly low in the north-northwest these evenings. It’s standing nearly on end.

Cassiopeia appears to have a new 7.8 magnitude star. On March 18 Yuji Nakamura of Japan discovered Nova Cassiopeiae 2021, also known as V1405 Cassiopeiae.

How long this dying star, visible only in telescopes, will remain visible no one knows.

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This month’s meeting will be on April 13 at 7PM.

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting. Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

I hope to see you there!

Mark Wells
WD4NYL & WRJE893
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/