ALERT NEWSLETTER – October 2015

A flashback to June 2007…..

“Welcome to the new ALERT Newsletter!

This newsletter is designed to keep members & interested “lurkers” informed as to the news and activities of your ALERT. Comments, suggestions & additions are more than welcome.”

With that simple introduction, the current ALERT Newsletter was born….

Welcome to the 100th Edition of the ALERT Newsletter!

This newsletter was actually designed to be “friendly spam” invading peoples email inboxes and gently tapping them on the shoulder and reminding them that “ALERT is still here, don’t forget about us”. Reverse psychology of the “out of sight, out of mind” principle.

Even if one never opens the email, you can’t ignore us….were still here!

Also, it was hoped to update our activities, provide some interesting articles and serve as a training tool.

Over the years we’ve dealt with training, procedural problems, ham political problems aka whining, emergency preparedness and of delved into astronomy with “Mark’s Almanac”.

The ALERT Newsletter has been well received, with very few negative comments.

One thing to be remembered is that this is YOUR newsletter. That being said, I need articles and ideas. Sometimes I can’t think of a single thing to put in the main article. You would be surprised at how many “bottom of the 9th inning” articles have suddenly popped into my head and been quickly written.

So, to put it mildly HELP!!!

What is the future of the newsletter?

At some point I will pass the torch to someone else and hopefully there will be someone there to take the torch.

One unique thing about the ALERT Newsletter is that IT STILL EXISTS. Once upon a time there were quite a few newsletters being produced by various local clubs and groups. Now they are all gone, or have devolved into a monthly email meeting reminder.

This is actually the second incarnation of an ALERT newsletter. When ALERT was founded back in 1996 there was a short-lived newsletter called the “ALERT News”.

Hopefully the current newsletter, now in its 8th year, will in whatever form my eventual successors choose, be here for decades to come.

It’s not going anywhere soon, and neither am I.

So sit back, relax and welcome to edition 100!
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From Mark’s Weather Archives
“Weather Folklore And Wisdom From Divers Sources”

(Some true, some just for fun, you get to observe and decide which is which)

“But He replied to them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?” Matthew 16: 2 &3

“The hollow winds begin to blow, the clouds look black, the grass is low;
The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep, and spiders from their cobwebs peep.
Last night the sun went pale to bed, the moon halos hid her head;
The boding shepherd heaves a sigh, For see, a rainbow spans the sky.
The walls are damp, the ditches smell, closed is the pink-eyed pimpernel.
Hark how the chairs and tables crack! Old Betty’s nerves are on the rack;
Loud quacks the duck, the peacocks cry, the distant hills are seeming nigh.
How restless are the snorting swine, the busy flies disturb the kine,
Low o’er the grass the swallow wings, the cricket, too, how sharp he sings!
Cat on the hearth, with velvet paws, sits wiping o’er her whiskered jaws;
Through the clear streams the fishes rise, and nimbly catch the incautious flies.
The glowworms, numerous and light, illumined the dewy dell last night;
At dusk the squalid was seen, hopping and crawling o’er the green;
The whirling dust the wind obeys, and in the rapid eddy plays;
The frog has changed his yellow vest, and in a russet coat is dressed.
Though June, the air is cold and still, the mellow blackbird’s voice is shrill;
My dog, so altered in his taste, quits mutton bones on grass to feast;
And see yon rooks, how odd their flight! They imitate the gliding kite,
And seem precipitate to fall, as if they felt the piercing ball.
‘Twill surely rain; I see with sorrow, Our jaunt must be put off to-morrow.” – Dr. Edward Jones

“Infallible signs of Rainy Weather, from the Observations of divers Animals!
If Ducks or Drakes their Wings do flutter high
Or tender Colts upon their Backs do lie,
If Sheep do bleat, or play, or skip about,
Or Swine hide Straw by bearing on their Snout,
If Oxen lick themselves against the Hair,
Or grazing Kine to feed apace appear,
If Cattle bellow, grazine from below,
Or if Dogs Entrails rumble to and fro,
If Doves or Pigeons in the Evening come
Later than usual to their Dove-House Home,
If Crows and Daws do oft themselves be-wet,
Or Ants and Pismires Home a-pace do get,
If in the dust Hens do their Pinions shake,
Or by their flocking a great Number make,
If Swallows fly upon the Water low,
Or Wood-Lice seem in Armies for to go,
If Flies or Gnats, or Fleas infest and bite,
Or sting more than they’re wont by Day or Night,
If Toads hie Home, or Frogs do croak amain,
Or Peacocks cry
Soon after look for Rain! “

“Frog goes a hoppin’, rain comes a droppin’”

Crickets chirp faster when it’s warm and slower when it is cold.
Crickets can serve as thermometers. Tradition says that if you count the cricket’s chirps for 14 seconds and then add 40, you will obtain the temperature in Fahrenheit at the cricket’s location.

Or you can cheat and use the NWS Cricket Chirp Calculator http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_cricketconvert
Katydids also can give you the temperature. Per the Mississippi State Extension Services “The Gloworm” count the number of calls per minute, add 161 and divide by 3.
They also say that the first killing frost comes precisely three months after the first katydids begin to sing. In late summer when they begin to call during the day from deep shade, frost is six weeks away. Keep your ears open and mark that calendar.
If a cat sits with its back to a heat source expect cold weather.
If a cat takes shelter behind furniture or slinks along the ground for no apparent reason, a thunderstorm may be approaching.
If a dog starts trembling, panting and trying to hide for no apparent reason, he also may hear a thunderstorm approaching. Or an earthquake, some say.
“If your dog howls at the moon it signifies an early snow.”
Ants shore up their anthills before a rain.
Roaches suddenly appearing in houses that normally have none signal rain.
Insects will flee to higher ground before a prolonged rain. (I observed this on Red Mountain as Katrina approached the coast)
If the sun shines while snow is falling, expect more snow very soon.
The length of a recently deceased goose breastbone at Thanksgiving indicates the length of the ensuing winter, while the color of the breastbone indicates its severity. A plain white breastbone indicates a mild winter. A mottled breastbone indicates a more severe winter, and the more mottled the breastbone the more severe the winter to come.
The deeper squirrels bury their nuts, the lower the lowest temperature will be for the upcoming winter.
A ring around the sun or moon indicates rain or snow within 12 to 24 hours.
If the Moon has two rings encircling it, expect snowfall within 24 hours.
Sundogs indicate possible rain in 24 to 48 hours.
Expect a tough Winter is ahead if:
“Corn husks are thick and tight…
Apple skins are tough…
Birds migrate early…
Squirrels tails are very bushy…
Berries and nuts are plentiful…
Bees build their nests high in the trees.”

“Squirrels gathering nuts in a flurry, will cause snow to gather in a hurry.”
“Flowers bloomin’ in late Autumn, a sure sign of a bad Winter comin’.”
“As high as the weeds grow, so will the bank of snow.”
Thunder in the Fall foretells a cold Winter.
“Onion skins very thin, Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough, Coming Winter cold and rough.”

Bees and wasps retreating to their hives and nests indicate rain.

Likewise, bees, wasps, spiders and birds reappearing mean the storms end is near.

The severity of Winter is determined by how far down the feathers have grown on a partridge’s leg. I know I check my partridges often…

The wider the brown (middle) band on a woolly bear caterpillar, the milder the Winter.

If there is thunder in Winter, it will snow 7 days later.

“No weather is ill, if the wind be still.”

“Rain before seven, fine before eleven.”

“A cow with its tail to the West makes the weather best,
A cow with its tail to the East makes the weather least.”

“A sunshiny shower won’t last half an hour!”

“Mackerel skies and mare’s tails make ships carry lowered sails.”

“Mares tales, storms and gales. Mackerel sky, not 24 hours dry.”

“The rain it raineth every day
On the just and unjust fella.
But mostly on the just fella,
because the unjust stole the just’s umbrella!”

The louder the frog, the more the rain.

“When the wind is blowing in the North
No fisherman should set forth,
When the wind is blowing in the East,
‘Tis not fit for man nor beast,
When the wind is blowing in the South
It brings the food over the fish’s mouth,
When the wind is blowing in the West,
That is when the fishing’s best!”

“Wind in the East – the Fish bite the least.
Wind in the West – the Fish bite the best.”

If smoke goes up – clear, smoke comes down – moisture on the way.

“In the morning mountains (of clouds), in the evening fountains.”

“When Windows won’t open,
And the salt clogs the shaker,
The weather will favour
The umbrella maker!”

“If the moon shows a silver shield,
Be not afraid to reap the field,
But if she rises haloed round,
Soon well tread on deluged ground.”

“If fleecy white clouds cover the heavenly way, no rain should mar your plans that day.”

A frosty night means clear weather.

Clear night, cold night, cloudy night, a warmer night.

Sounds are louder on a cloudy day, also, distant sounds, like smoke, are carried by the wind.

The higher the clouds, the finer the weather.

“Rain foretold, long last. Short notice, soon will pass.”

“When the dew is on the grass,
Rain will never come to pass.
When grass is dry at morning light,
Look for rain before the night.”

Many birds roosting on wires or gathering on beaches means rain.

Birds are natural windvanes, when on trees or power lines they point towards the wind so their feathers don’t get ruffled.

Many, many blackbirds covering the ground means a cold front is approaching. (My piano teacher told me it meant snow, but, I have found it does signal a cold front.)

The loud, shrill buzz of the cicada warned of long, hot days ahead.

Flies clustered on windows and screens predicted a cold front was on the way.

“When bubbles are rising on the surface of coffee and they hold together, good weather is coming; if bubbles break up, weather you don’t need is coming.”

“A sunshiny shower, last half an hour.”

“Rainbow at night – shepherd’s delight. Rainbow in morning – shepherds warning.”

“When ditches and ponds offend the nose, look for rain and stormy blows.”

Aching joints foretell bad weather.

Chickweed and mimosa close their leaves before a rain.

Dandelion and daisy blossoms close before a storm.

“When the leaves of trees turn over, it foretells windy conditions and possible severe weather

“A large crop of acorns = a harsh winter is due”

“Flowers smell best just before rain”

“When the dogwood flowers, there shall be no more frosts.”

“Ash (leaves appearing) before oak, the summers a soak. Oak before ash, the summer’s a splash.”

“When the rooster goes crowing to bed, he will rise with a watery head.”

“If spiders are many and spinning their webs, the spell will soon be very dry.”

“If wasps build their nests high, the winter will be long and harsh.”

“When the birds are flying low, expect rain and a blow.”

“When geese cackle, it will rain.”

“If the sparrow makes a lot of noise, rain will follow.”

“Trout jump high when a rain is nigh.”

“Pigs gather leaves and straw before a storm

“When birds roost close to the ground – rain or snow are due.”

“Pale moon rains, red moon blows. White moon neither rains nor blows.”

If cumulus clouds are smaller at sunset than at noon, expect fair weather

“A round topped cloud and flattened base, carries rainfall in its face.”

“When mountains and cliffs in the clouds appear, some sudden and violent showers are near.”

And, finally…

“Whether the weather be fine
Or whether the weather be not
Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot
We’ll weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not”

Try these out, watch and see, if a good weather prognosticator thou canst be…

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Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaf, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And, it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but, leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide. But after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month Mercury is hidden in the glare of the Sun. But, at the month progresses He will emerge in the predawn morning sky and reach his highest elevation above the horizon on October 16. At that time He will be 18.1 degrees from the Sun. Look for Him low in the Eastern sky just before sunrise.

Venus is at Her greatest brilliance at magnitude -4.8. Rising well before sunrise between 3 and 4 AM, She will probably trigger reports of UFO sightings. In a telescope She will display a crescent shape.
She will move higher and higher in the predawn morning sky until reaching her maximum altitude on October 26, when she will be 46.4 degrees from the Sun.

Mars, 400 times fainter than Venus, is 10 degrees to the lower left of Venus at dawn, and moving towards each other day by day. On Friday the 25th He will pass very close to the star Regulus, which is slightly brighter than Mars.

Jupiter is even lower in the east during dawn, moving towards Venus. They will be very close to each other on the morning of the 26th, as they reach conjunction, being only 1 degree apart. On the morning of October 28th Mars will join them forming a rare three planet conjunction, with the planets forming a tight 1 degree triangle in the early morning sky, with the star Regulus lingering nearby. Look to the East at sunrise for this very rare spectacular.

Left out of all the fun, Saturn shines at the Libra/Scorpius border in the southwest at dusk, moving lower and lower near the orange star Antares.

Uranus in Pisces has risen in the east by 10 PM. On October 11 Uranus will reach His closest approach to Earth and at magnitude +5.7 will be on the threshold of naked eye visibility in dark skies, away from city lights, all night long. This is the best time to try to observe this distant world. But, due to its distance, it will appear only as a blue-green dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.

Neptune at magnitude +7.8 in Aquarius has risen in the southeast by 10 PM.

On October 1 Comet US10 Catalina may reach naked eye visibility. For now this comet is a Southern Hemisphere event, however after it swings around the Sun on November 15, it will surge into view for Northern Hemisphere observers and may be easily visible in the Northeastern early morning sky at magnitude +3 from late November into January. It will be very close to the star Arcturus on New Year’s night.

Will it live up to expectations or fizzle is too soon to say. But, so far it has closely matched its predicted brightness levels.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 8. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

New Moon occurs October 13 at 7:06 PM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet. Halley’s Comet is set to make its next closest approach to Earth, a much closer approach than the distant passage in 1986 when it and the Earth were on opposite sides of the solar system, on July 28, 2061. I will be 103 years old. So mark your calendars T-Minus 56 years and counting!

By the way, they say that the passage in 2134 will be even better than the one in 2061. I bet you can’t wait for that one!

October’s Full Moon will occur October 27 at 7:05 AM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Hunter’s Moon” so named by Native American tribes because at this time of year the leaves are falling and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

This will be the last of 2015’s three Supermoons.

1892 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 18, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on October 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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