ALERT NEWSLETTER – September 2015

Hi everyone,

I hope all are doing well. As I write this, I see the first signs of Fall. The air is a little less humid and the temperatures just a tad less oppressive. Most notable is the view out of my office window as bright yellow spots go flapping and gliding by as the butterflies are migrating, taking an exact South-southeast course to who knows where.

Oh, and are you ready for some football?

I hope you have a good month, and I hope to see you at our next meeting, which will be on September 8.

Roll Tide & War Eagle.

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Hurricane Season’s Peak

With the beginning of September we enter the peak of hurricane season, and whether it is an active season or a quiet season, we must always keep a wary eye towards the coast. For even a mild season can produce a catastrophic hurricane. And it only takes one to reap havoc and destruction that takes years to rebuild from.

One disturbing trend that I seem to see more and more of is the major news networks choosing to “embellish” for attention. For instance I heard them describe Tropical Storm Ana as a “massive storm”, a “monster storm” and so forth, when it was “just” a tropical storm. Not to be ignored for sure, but, not to be confused with Noah’s Flood either.

Personally I believe they should reserve such dramatics for true “monster storms” such as your Ivans Katrinas and Opals, so that the general public’s senses don’t become numbed by over exaggeration. For instance, I regularly hear statements such as “a storm of historic proportions”, “110 million Americans at risk as major storms sweep across the nation”. Making me think “oh please, why don’t we get just a little bit more dramatic.”

Now if James Spann or Brian Peters say “we’re not trying to unduly alarm folk, but, how well can you tread water?” I’m heading to Mt. Cheaha to practice raft building skills, for I trust them.

But, for the others, they should realize that not every storm is “historic, epic, of Biblical proportions”, and they should not be being described as such just for ratings.

With that introduction, to put tropical cyclone damage potential in a more realistic light I present the following:

Tropical Cyclone Potential Impacts
Based on information from the NWS Brownsville Office

Descriptions are based on the hardest hit places, usually near the storms core and right quadrant.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(20 to 38 MPH)
Storms are not named at this point, but are given numbers such as “94L”

Potential for Little to No Impact: No discernible threat to life and property; appreciable wind damage is unlikely. Sustained winds to remain below tropical storm force (39 mph); breezy to windy conditions may still be present.

TROPICAL STORM
(39 to 73 mph)
Ana 2015
Bill 2015
Alberto 1994

Potential for Low but Concerning Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of minor to locally moderate wind damage. If realized, expect damage to unanchored mobile homes, screened patios, carports, and awnings; loose shingles will be blown off roofs. Loose objects will be blown around and become dangerous projectiles. Driving conditions will be hazardous on bridges and causeways, especially for high profile vehicles. Scattered power outages will occur, especially in areas with above ground lines. Large branches will break from trees; some shallow-rooted and diseased trees will be blown down. Rainfall can cause severe flooding.

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
(74 to 95 mph)
Babe 1977
Danny 1985
Danny 1997

Potential for Moderate Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of moderate wind damage. If realized, most mobile homes will experience moderate to substantial damage; those of poor construction will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will have significant damage to shingles, siding, and gutters; more serious structural damage is possible. Unprotected and exposed windows are at risk of being blown out. Many screened patios will be damaged. Some well-constructed homes will also see shingle and siding damage. Unfastened light to moderate weight items will become airborne, causing additional damage and possible injury. Hundreds of power lines will be blown down; local outages will affect entire neighborhoods. Many large branches of healthy trees will be snapped, and rotting small to medium sized trees will be uprooted. Numerous palm fronds will be blown down, and minor to moderate damage will occur to citrus orchards and newly planted lowland crops.

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
(96 to 110 mph)
Diana 1990,
Arthur 2014

Potential for High Impact: Dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of major wind damage. If realized, the majority of older mobile homes will be severely damaged or destroyed. Those that remain will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable until repaired. Well-constructed houses will have minor to moderate damage to shingles, siding, and gutters. Many unprotected and exposed windows will be blown out. Partial roof failure is expected in industrial parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings. Older low-rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as siding and shingle damage. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury, and possible death. Power outages will be widespread, and could continue for multiple weeks in some areas. Numerous power lines will be pulled down, and a number of power poles will fall. All trees with rotting bases will uproot or snap. Nearly all large healthy branches will snap. Some healthy trees will uproot, especially where ground is saturated. Major damage is expected to citrus orchards. Most newly planted crops will be damaged.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
(111 to 130 mph)
Opal (at landfall) 1995
Ivan (at landfall) 2004
Katrina (at landfall) 2005

Potential for Extreme Impact: Extremely dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of devastating to catastrophic wind damage. Devastating Damage – If realized, all older mobile homes will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will be destroyed or severely damaged. Moderate to major damage of well-constructed houses will include up to one half of all gabled roofs. Also, a significant number of exterior walls will fail. Aluminum and light weight steel roofs will be torn off buildings at industrial parks. Partial roof and exterior wall failure are likely at low rise apartment buildings, especially those of poor to average construction. Most windows in tall buildings will be blown out, with other minor to moderate damage possible due to swaying. Airborne debris of light to moderate weight will cause additional major damage, as well as injuries and possible loss of life. Near total power loss is expected. Many power poles will be knocked down, and numerous transformers will pop. Outages will last for weeks in some areas. The availability of potable water will be diminished as filtration systems begin to fail. Thousands of trees will be severely damaged. Up to three quarters of all healthy small to medium sized trees will snap or uproot, especially on saturated ground. Severe damage is expected to citrus orchards; some orchards may face total destruction. Most newly planted ground crops will be wiped out. Livestock left to weather the storm will be injured, some critically. Some livestock deaths are likely.

Opal downed thousands upon thousands of trees across Alabama.

Katrina breeched the levees at New Orleans (as had been warned for decades) and flooded the below sea level city. Almost forgotten is the devastation in Mississippi, which is still being repaired 10 years later.

Also with Katrina, the storms surge travelled well inland up rivers and creeks causing wells to become unusable because they became salty. People had to distill the water until the aquafer cleansed itself.

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
(131 to 155 mph)
Galveston Hurricane of 1900
Fredrick 1979
Opal 1995
Charley 2004

&

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
(Above 155 mph)
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992

Catastrophic Damage: If realized, damage will be unprecedented. Much of the affected area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer in spots. At least one half of well-constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, and most of those homes will be destroyed. The majority of industrial buildings will become non-functional; partial to complete wall and roof damage is likely. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block or brick low rise apartments will have major damage, including some wall and roof failure. Tall buildings will sway dangerously and have most windows blown out; a few may collapse. Airborne debris will be widespread and include heavy items such as household appliances and even some light automobiles. Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved or tossed. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons and pets caught outdoors will be killed if struck by debris. Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be blown down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards. A majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted. Only the heartiest trees will remain standing, but will be defoliated. Most crops will be destroyed; exposed livestock will be killed.

During the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900, a 15 foot storm surge washed over the entire island. The surge knocked buildings off their foundations and the surf pounded them to pieces, killing 8000 people.

Category 4 Fredrick destroyed the bridge to Dauphin Island, making it only accessible by boat.

During the Category 5 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 people caught outside were literally sandblasted to death. Some were found with no clothing left on except their belts.

Though a Category 3 storm at landfall, this wording was used almost verbatim during Katrina.

URGENT—WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 PM CDT MONDAY AUG 29 2005

…EXTREME DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI…
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE CONTINUES ALONG ITS PATH…

KATRINA…NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 125 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS…WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND NEAR KATRINA’S PATH…EXPECT PARTIAL TO
COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT WILL
SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL
BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION…PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DE-FOLIATED.

THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

Let’s hope we don’t have to see another message like this for some time to come.

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the combination of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is very low in bright twilight almost due west, approaching his highest elevation above the horizon, which he reaches on September 4. He will at that time be 27 degrees above the horizon.

Venus is getting higher and brighter every morning in the east before dawn. How long can you track her after sunrise? I’ve seen her at mid-day.

Mars is near Venus in the dawn, but, while easily visible, is 300 times fainter.

Incidentally, the old internet rumor is spreading again about “double moons” with Mars soon being as large as the full moon. It is a hoax, or at least I would hope it is, because if it were true, then we or Mars or both have broken out of solar orbit, which would not be a good thing.

Also floating around is the cheerful news that the Earth will be hit by a two and a half mile wide comet between September 15 – 28 and cause “climate chaos”. These are certainly trying times.

Jupiter is hidden deep in the sunrise.

Saturn shines in Libra in the southwest at dusk.

Uranus in Pisces has risen in the east by 10 PM.

Neptune in Aquarius has risen in the southeast by 10 PM.

New Moon occurs September 13 at 1:41 AM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

There will be a partial solar eclipse on September 13, but, it will be visible only in Southern Africa, Madagascar and Antarctica. Book your tickets now.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 23 at 3:21 AM CDT, when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 27 at 9:50 PM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year it is also “Harvest Moon”. Harvest moon get its name because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so occasionally it can occur with October “Hunters Moon”.

This year’s Harvest Moon is the second of 2015’s three Supermoons. The moon will be at its closest approach of the year and may appear slightly larger and brighter than normal.

The next Supermoon will occur at Hunter’s Moon on October 27.

There will be a total lunar eclipse fully visible from Birmingham on September 27. Timings +/-
2 minutes are as follows:

The eclipse begins at 7:11 PM CDT
Partial eclipse begins at 8:07 PM CDT
Total eclipse begins at 9:11 PM CDT
Maximum eclipse 9:47 PM CDT
Total eclipse ends 10:23 PM CDT
Partial eclipse ends 11:27 PM CDT
Eclipse ends 12:22 PM CDT

A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of North and South America, Europe, Africa, and western Asia.

If social media trumpets about “blood moons”, do remember that they usually do turn red during eclipses. It’s normal. If it should turn purple or square shaped, then you might start wondering.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

1887 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 27, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on September 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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