Hi everyone,

I hope all are doing well. As I write this, I see the first signs of Fall. The air is a little less humid and the temperatures just a tad less oppressive. Most notable is the view out of my office window as bright yellow spots go flapping and gliding by as the butterflies are migrating, taking an exact South-southeast course to who knows where.

Oh, and are you ready for some football?

I hope you have a good month, and I hope to see you at our next meeting, which will be on September 8.

Roll Tide & War Eagle.

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Hurricane Season’s Peak

With the beginning of September we enter the peak of hurricane season, and whether it is an active season or a quiet season, we must always keep a wary eye towards the coast. For even a mild season can produce a catastrophic hurricane. And it only takes one to reap havoc and destruction that takes years to rebuild from.

One disturbing trend that I seem to see more and more of is the major news networks choosing to “embellish” for attention. For instance I heard them describe Tropical Storm Ana as a “massive storm”, a “monster storm” and so forth, when it was “just” a tropical storm. Not to be ignored for sure, but, not to be confused with Noah’s Flood either.

Personally I believe they should reserve such dramatics for true “monster storms” such as your Ivans Katrinas and Opals, so that the general public’s senses don’t become numbed by over exaggeration. For instance, I regularly hear statements such as “a storm of historic proportions”, “110 million Americans at risk as major storms sweep across the nation”. Making me think “oh please, why don’t we get just a little bit more dramatic.”

Now if James Spann or Brian Peters say “we’re not trying to unduly alarm folk, but, how well can you tread water?” I’m heading to Mt. Cheaha to practice raft building skills, for I trust them.

But, for the others, they should realize that not every storm is “historic, epic, of Biblical proportions”, and they should not be being described as such just for ratings.

With that introduction, to put tropical cyclone damage potential in a more realistic light I present the following:

Tropical Cyclone Potential Impacts
Based on information from the NWS Brownsville Office

Descriptions are based on the hardest hit places, usually near the storms core and right quadrant.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(20 to 38 MPH)
Storms are not named at this point, but are given numbers such as “94L”

Potential for Little to No Impact: No discernible threat to life and property; appreciable wind damage is unlikely. Sustained winds to remain below tropical storm force (39 mph); breezy to windy conditions may still be present.

TROPICAL STORM
(39 to 73 mph)
Ana 2015
Bill 2015
Alberto 1994

Potential for Low but Concerning Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of minor to locally moderate wind damage. If realized, expect damage to unanchored mobile homes, screened patios, carports, and awnings; loose shingles will be blown off roofs. Loose objects will be blown around and become dangerous projectiles. Driving conditions will be hazardous on bridges and causeways, especially for high profile vehicles. Scattered power outages will occur, especially in areas with above ground lines. Large branches will break from trees; some shallow-rooted and diseased trees will be blown down. Rainfall can cause severe flooding.

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
(74 to 95 mph)
Babe 1977
Danny 1985
Danny 1997

Potential for Moderate Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of moderate wind damage. If realized, most mobile homes will experience moderate to substantial damage; those of poor construction will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will have significant damage to shingles, siding, and gutters; more serious structural damage is possible. Unprotected and exposed windows are at risk of being blown out. Many screened patios will be damaged. Some well-constructed homes will also see shingle and siding damage. Unfastened light to moderate weight items will become airborne, causing additional damage and possible injury. Hundreds of power lines will be blown down; local outages will affect entire neighborhoods. Many large branches of healthy trees will be snapped, and rotting small to medium sized trees will be uprooted. Numerous palm fronds will be blown down, and minor to moderate damage will occur to citrus orchards and newly planted lowland crops.

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
(96 to 110 mph)
Diana 1990,
Arthur 2014

Potential for High Impact: Dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of major wind damage. If realized, the majority of older mobile homes will be severely damaged or destroyed. Those that remain will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable until repaired. Well-constructed houses will have minor to moderate damage to shingles, siding, and gutters. Many unprotected and exposed windows will be blown out. Partial roof failure is expected in industrial parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings. Older low-rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as siding and shingle damage. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury, and possible death. Power outages will be widespread, and could continue for multiple weeks in some areas. Numerous power lines will be pulled down, and a number of power poles will fall. All trees with rotting bases will uproot or snap. Nearly all large healthy branches will snap. Some healthy trees will uproot, especially where ground is saturated. Major damage is expected to citrus orchards. Most newly planted crops will be damaged.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
(111 to 130 mph)
Opal (at landfall) 1995
Ivan (at landfall) 2004
Katrina (at landfall) 2005

Potential for Extreme Impact: Extremely dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of devastating to catastrophic wind damage. Devastating Damage – If realized, all older mobile homes will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will be destroyed or severely damaged. Moderate to major damage of well-constructed houses will include up to one half of all gabled roofs. Also, a significant number of exterior walls will fail. Aluminum and light weight steel roofs will be torn off buildings at industrial parks. Partial roof and exterior wall failure are likely at low rise apartment buildings, especially those of poor to average construction. Most windows in tall buildings will be blown out, with other minor to moderate damage possible due to swaying. Airborne debris of light to moderate weight will cause additional major damage, as well as injuries and possible loss of life. Near total power loss is expected. Many power poles will be knocked down, and numerous transformers will pop. Outages will last for weeks in some areas. The availability of potable water will be diminished as filtration systems begin to fail. Thousands of trees will be severely damaged. Up to three quarters of all healthy small to medium sized trees will snap or uproot, especially on saturated ground. Severe damage is expected to citrus orchards; some orchards may face total destruction. Most newly planted ground crops will be wiped out. Livestock left to weather the storm will be injured, some critically. Some livestock deaths are likely.

Opal downed thousands upon thousands of trees across Alabama.

Katrina breeched the levees at New Orleans (as had been warned for decades) and flooded the below sea level city. Almost forgotten is the devastation in Mississippi, which is still being repaired 10 years later.

Also with Katrina, the storms surge travelled well inland up rivers and creeks causing wells to become unusable because they became salty. People had to distill the water until the aquafer cleansed itself.

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
(131 to 155 mph)
Galveston Hurricane of 1900
Fredrick 1979
Opal 1995
Charley 2004

&

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
(Above 155 mph)
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992

Catastrophic Damage: If realized, damage will be unprecedented. Much of the affected area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer in spots. At least one half of well-constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, and most of those homes will be destroyed. The majority of industrial buildings will become non-functional; partial to complete wall and roof damage is likely. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block or brick low rise apartments will have major damage, including some wall and roof failure. Tall buildings will sway dangerously and have most windows blown out; a few may collapse. Airborne debris will be widespread and include heavy items such as household appliances and even some light automobiles. Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved or tossed. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons and pets caught outdoors will be killed if struck by debris. Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be blown down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards. A majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted. Only the heartiest trees will remain standing, but will be defoliated. Most crops will be destroyed; exposed livestock will be killed.

During the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900, a 15 foot storm surge washed over the entire island. The surge knocked buildings off their foundations and the surf pounded them to pieces, killing 8000 people.

Category 4 Fredrick destroyed the bridge to Dauphin Island, making it only accessible by boat.

During the Category 5 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 people caught outside were literally sandblasted to death. Some were found with no clothing left on except their belts.

Though a Category 3 storm at landfall, this wording was used almost verbatim during Katrina.

URGENT—WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 PM CDT MONDAY AUG 29 2005

…EXTREME DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI…
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE CONTINUES ALONG ITS PATH…

KATRINA…NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 125 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS…WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND NEAR KATRINA’S PATH…EXPECT PARTIAL TO
COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT WILL
SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL
BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION…PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DE-FOLIATED.

THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

Let’s hope we don’t have to see another message like this for some time to come.

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the combination of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is very low in bright twilight almost due west, approaching his highest elevation above the horizon, which he reaches on September 4. He will at that time be 27 degrees above the horizon.

Venus is getting higher and brighter every morning in the east before dawn. How long can you track her after sunrise? I’ve seen her at mid-day.

Mars is near Venus in the dawn, but, while easily visible, is 300 times fainter.

Incidentally, the old internet rumor is spreading again about “double moons” with Mars soon being as large as the full moon. It is a hoax, or at least I would hope it is, because if it were true, then we or Mars or both have broken out of solar orbit, which would not be a good thing.

Also floating around is the cheerful news that the Earth will be hit by a two and a half mile wide comet between September 15 – 28 and cause “climate chaos”. These are certainly trying times.

Jupiter is hidden deep in the sunrise.

Saturn shines in Libra in the southwest at dusk.

Uranus in Pisces has risen in the east by 10 PM.

Neptune in Aquarius has risen in the southeast by 10 PM.

New Moon occurs September 13 at 1:41 AM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

There will be a partial solar eclipse on September 13, but, it will be visible only in Southern Africa, Madagascar and Antarctica. Book your tickets now.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 23 at 3:21 AM CDT, when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 27 at 9:50 PM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year it is also “Harvest Moon”. Harvest moon get its name because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so occasionally it can occur with October “Hunters Moon”.

This year’s Harvest Moon is the second of 2015’s three Supermoons. The moon will be at its closest approach of the year and may appear slightly larger and brighter than normal.

The next Supermoon will occur at Hunter’s Moon on October 27.

There will be a total lunar eclipse fully visible from Birmingham on September 27. Timings +/-
2 minutes are as follows:

The eclipse begins at 7:11 PM CDT
Partial eclipse begins at 8:07 PM CDT
Total eclipse begins at 9:11 PM CDT
Maximum eclipse 9:47 PM CDT
Total eclipse ends 10:23 PM CDT
Partial eclipse ends 11:27 PM CDT
Eclipse ends 12:22 PM CDT

A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of North and South America, Europe, Africa, and western Asia.

If social media trumpets about “blood moons”, do remember that they usually do turn red during eclipses. It’s normal. If it should turn purple or square shaped, then you might start wondering.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

1887 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 27, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on September 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope all is well as we enter these late summer days. As you bake and broil in the sun, remember that fall is just a little over a month away, and eventually the heat and humidity will retreat back towards the tropical realms from whence it came.

Our next ALERT meeting will be on August 11. Dues are still due, so if you missed the July meeting, grab the piggy bank and come to the meeting.

I hope to see you there!

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Home Damage Control Kits

If one does much study of disaster preparedness, you will encounter many lists of suggested items for emergency kits. You will see BOB’s or “Bug Out Bags”, INCH Kits or “I’m Never Coming Home” kits, GHB’s or “Get Home Bags”, and SKMO Kits or “Spouse Kicked Me Out” kits. However, the one kit I never seem to see anything about is Home Damage Control Kits.

Disasters come in many shapes and sizes. From flooded basements due to a burst pipe to storms planting a tree in your roof or liking your roof so much that it just takes it with it.

Regardless of the causes one should have some means of making emergency repairs so your home can remain habitual or to prevent further damage.

So what should be included in a Damage Control Kit?

In addition to a sturdy ladder you should have:

1. An ABC fire extinguisher. These are good for small fires, defined as those not reaching the ceiling. Any, fires that are larger than you are, or one that threatens to cut off your escape route, presents a smoke inhalation danger or might lead to an explosion, is beyond your control – GET OUT and call 911!

An ABC extinguisher can combat: A – Solid combustibles, such as wood & paper, B – small amounts of liquids or gases (not tankers or barrels) & C – electrical fires.

Realize that fire extinguisher can only discharge for up to 10 seconds, that’s all. So, if a fire looks like 10 seconds probably is not going to be sufficient to extinguish the fire, DON’T TRY, get out and call 911.

Extinguishers are used using the “PASS” method:

PULL… Pull the pin. This will also break the tamper seal.
AIM… Aim low, pointing the extinguisher nozzle (or its horn or hose) at the base of the fire.
NOTE: Do not touch the plastic discharge horn on CO2 extinguishers, it gets very cold and may damage skin.
SQUEEZE… Squeeze the handle to release the extinguishing agent.
SWEEP… Sweep from side to side at the base of the fire until it appears to be out. Watch the area. If the fire re-ignites, aim again, squeeze and sweep again, assuming you haven’t exhausted the extinguisher.

If you have the slightest doubt about your ability to fight a fire, EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY and call 911.

What if 911 is unavailable? Don’t try to be a hero. You can always replace “things”. But you cannot replace your life.

2. You should have a set of tools. Once upon a time nearly every guy owned a tool set. You could repair your own cars and do simple or not so simple home repairs. Now that “help” is just a phone call away, the need for a tool set is not overly apparent, and many don’t go to the bother to have one.

A good tool set for Damage Control would include a small knife; please not some Rambo sized Bowie Knife, as they prove too unwieldy for small work.

“The Bowies and Hunting Knives usually kept on sale, are
thick, clumsy affairs, murderous looking, but of little use,
rather fitted to adorn the belt of “Billy The Kid” on a Dime
Store Novel, than the outfit of a Hunter. “
– George Washington “Nessmuk” Sears 1885

Admittedly they look macho, but it’s like trying to peel an apple with a Samurai sword.

Also include shears, heavy duty scissors, saws – a gas powered chainsaw, a large bow saw, and a small folding saw, a claw hammer, a hatchet, screw drivers – both slotted and Phillips head, nut drivers, crescent wrenches, a pipe wrench, including a non-conductive one for the gas main, vise grips, a cordless drill, pry bars, gloves, googles and a hard hat.

3. Screws and nails of various sizes, including roofing nails, for shoring up and patching. A hammer and screwdriver is of little use if you have no nails or screws.

4. Duct tape. There are multitudes of uses for this wonder of human technology. You can use it to repair rips, slips, clips and drips. The adhesive has antibiotic properties, making a decent bandage. You can even use a strip for a short term emergency candle. http://theweekendprepper.com/supplies/50-practical-uses-for-duct-tape/
This and the following suggestion is sometimes lovingly referred to as “the Redneck Tool Kit”.

5. Water Displacement, 40th formula also called WD40. I always was tempted to change my call sign to Whiskey Delta Four Oscar. There is the old saying “If it won’t open, use WD4O, if it won’t close use duct tape”. This gem has over 2000 uses http://wd40.com/files/wd40-2000.pdf and supposedly is edible, though I’ve never tried it. Though it has been said “Mark will eat anything”, I do have my limits

6. Cordage. 550 paracord is strong and handy for tying and securing items and people if needed (until the police arrive). Any strong cordage is better than none, however.

7. Zip ties. When one is afraid or shaken they, due to uncontrollable physiological reactions, may find their fine motor skills compromised, and loose the ability to perform complex manual tasks such as tying knots. With zip ties, you may be able to avoid that problem. Zip ties can allow you to tie small things without cutting your cordage, something you really don’t want to do.

8. Flashlights & spare batteries. Preferably a headlamp, as this will free your hands for other tasks.
Others I might recommend are Rayovac’s a small but bright handheld 14 LED flashlight with a glow in the dark handle that I like, as it tells you where it is in the dark. Harbor Freight has a 27 LED flashlight/work light with a hanger and magnet so you can position it where you want.

9. Tarps. I remember being in South Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Charlie. Though some weeks had passed since the landfall, house after house was still aglow with blue tarps covering holes and missing sections of roofs.

This brings up the fact that no matter where you are, who you are or what situation has occurred, it may, despite the best intentions or performance, take a considerable amount of time for “things” to get back to normal. Crying, cursing, pouting or protesting can’t change the fact that some things just take time, and that your neighborhood may not be the first one on the list, as a damaged hospital might be considered a higher priority. Cutting through the damage path to reach people takes time, and rebuilding an infrastructure that took years to build may take more than just a few hours, it may take days or even weeks if not months to accomplish.

That’s why preparation, both materially and mentally, is important.

10. Knowledge. Long before a disaster strikes you should study and learn emergency preparedness and survival, both urban and wilderness. Why wilderness survival, you may ask? Because in a major disaster the damage may be so severe that the landscape no longer resembles civilization, but a strange torn wilderness, where wilderness rules apply.

You should make emergency kits, both the type being discussed and one following the recommendations of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. The NSSL recommends you keep a disaster supply kit, including:

A 3-day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food that won’t spoil
One change of clothing and footwear per person
One blanket or sleeping bag per person
A first-aid kit, including prescription medicines
Emergency tools, including a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and a portable radio
A flashlight, and plenty of extra batteries
An extra set of car keys and a credit card or cash
Special items for infant, elderly, or disabled family members.

Which is basically the same list recommended by FEMA, the Canadian, Japanese and Israeli governments.

A FEMA Basic Preparedness Guide is available at:

Click to access basic_preparedness.pdf

To go a step further, I recommend IS22 “Are You Ready”, which is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness.

IS22 “Are You Ready” is available at http://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/areyouready_full.pdf

The old 1960’s (once required high school reading) Civil Defense book “SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival” recommended a 21-day emergency supply. This is probably a more realistic goal, in that in anything other than an isolated neighborhood emergency; it is very likely that it would take in excess of 72 hours for the infrastructure to return to normal & for you to be back “on the grid”.

Katrina, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 and the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak all are good examples.

SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival is available at http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-Personal_and_Family_Survival.html

Not only need do you need to make emergency kits; you need to know how to use what is in them.
Just going out and buying a kit and never opening it or examining it is just buying a false sense of security.

Do you know how to cut off your water, to prevent flooding and protect your remaining water supply, such as that stored the hot water tank or piping from contamination? Can you cut off your power or gas supply to prevent a fire or explosion? Do you know how to make simple repairs? If not, learn now; don’t wait until an emergency occurs and you desperately need that knowledge, but it is too late.

Learn the threats and limitations unique to your location. Threats may include tornadoes, floods, and man-made threats such as industrial sites, chemical storage and transportation. Limitations include access to your neighborhood and transportation/evacuation routes. Are there any choke points where a single fallen tree could cut off rescue or escape?

Learn your assets, such as the location of the nearest medical facilities, including “doc in a box” clinics, pharmacies, hospitals, fire and police stations.

Also, know yourself and your limitations, both physically and financially & have realistic goals and expectations. For instance, don’t think you can hike five miles during an emergency to the hardware store, if you can barely make it from the sofa to the refrigerator as it is. Whatever you can realistically do to strengthen yourself physically, even a little bit, do so. Your life could depend on it.

Financially speaking, you do not have to go broke “prepping”. Do a little at a time. This helps cushion the wallet, and has the added benefit of not overwhelming yourself with a moving van of “emergency stuff”. You get to know your equipment and preparations better and in a more personal way when you prepare slowly.

It seems redundant to say that the time to prepare for emergencies is before they occur, not after, but, in so many cases people, rather than being proactive in preparing for the safety of their families in advance of a threat, are reactive waiting until after a disaster has struck, and then desperately try to obtain supplies when the stores, if they still exist, have been stripped of inventory, due to everyone else trying to cope with the disaster.

The middle of a disaster is the worst time to think about preparing. On the other hand, if you already have these preparations on hand, and the knowledge of how to use them, you are way ahead in the game and can help yourself and others also.

One word of caution I will add is that if you do choose to make emergency preparations, be very quiet about it. Don’t advertise you preparations by talking about them or posting details about them on social media or even discussing them on the air for that matter. You really don’t want everyone to know what you may or may not have.

It seems to be human nature that the same people who will laugh and ridicule you for preparing, calling you a “loony, tin hatted, prepper-survivalist type, no code weather wacko”, will also be the first ones knocking on your door expecting you to do your duty and provide for them.

Though you might want to help them and probably will, it is not your responsibility. You don’t want the neighborhood to descend on you and eat up a month’s worth of supplies in a day and leave you with nothing.

Just as it isn’t the responsibility of FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Baptist Disaster Relief, or
any other organization or person to make personal preparations for you or your family, it’s not your responsibility to prepare for others who are not willing to lift a finger in their own behalf.

Use wisdom. Help when you can, guide and advise if they will listen and are willing, but, ultimately you and your family must come first.

It’s not selfishness, its common sense.

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August. 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is hidden in the sunset.

Venus is dipping lower and lower towards the western horizon at sunset, look for her 20 to 30
minutes after sunset.

Mars is deep in the glow of dawn.

Jupiter is trailing Venus in the dusk sky, still close to each other, separated by 6 angular degrees, as they slowly sink into the western sky.

Saturn, shines in Scorpius in the south-southwest at sunset.

Uranus in Pisces is in the southern sky before the beginning of dawn.

Neptune in Aquarius is also in the southern sky before the first light of dawn.

Poor old demoted Pluto was successfully visited by the New Horizons spacecraft on July 14.

Among the interesting findings, which are and will be trickling in for the next 16 months, at 1 KBPS,
is the lack of cratering on Pluto and his primary moon Charon. Scientists expected a heavily cratered surface, similar to Jupiter’s moon Callisto or the southern region of our moon, instead, we see that while there are some craters, there are not very many, which means both objects are geologically active and resurfacing themselves.

The only other objects that does that is the Earth, due to geologic and weathering processes, Jupiter’s moon Europa, which because of the tidal action of Jupiter, is believed to possess an ice covered ocean and is as smooth as an bowling ball and Jupiter’s moon Io, which is so volcanically active that it’s sulfur volcanos are constantly resurfacing the landscape.

To do that both objects would have to have hot cores, and at that distance neither one should, and should have very heavily cratered surfaces, but doesn’t. So that has them wondering.

Pluto and Charon are gravitationally locked, that is that they always present the same faces to each other, similarly to how our moon only shows one face to the Earth.

Charon doesn’t rotate around Pluto. Since Charon is 1/4 the size of Pluto, it actually orbits the barycenter or a common center of gravity located between it and Pluto, like figure skaters circling holding hands.

The pair could almost be considered a double planet, if he hadn’t been demoted from planet status, due to his supposed dwarfish ways.

The poor old boy can’t win for losing.

If you want to see meteors, August is your month, as the Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. With only a thin crescent moon, there will be little interference, and if you can get away from city lights you should have a good show.

The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs August 14 at 9:53 PM CDT.

August’s full moon is “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans. This will occur August 29 at 1:35 PM CDT.

It is the first of three “Supermoons” occurring in 2015. The moon will be at its closest approach and may appear slightly larger and brighter than normal.

Don’t be surprised if the media, if both broadcast and especially social media herald the event as having some special, if not prophetic significance.

The truth is that they are not uncommon, and that it will be only slightly larger and brighter than normal, and most people are not actually able to tell the difference between it and an ordinary full moon.

Should you miss this Supermoon, you will also have opportunities at the Supermoons occurring at Harvest Moon on September 28 and at Hunter’s Moon on October 27.

1879 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 23, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

Among those 1879 planets is planet Kepler 452-B, orbiting star Kepler 452, 1400 light years away in the constellation Cygnus.

This planet orbits a class G2V star very similar to, though older than the Sun. Its 385 day orbit lies within the “circumstellar habitable zone” or as some call the “Goldilocks zone” of the star. That is, it’s not too hot or too cold for planets large enough to have sufficient atmospheric pressure to have liquid water on the surface.

This planet, if the rough estimates are correct, is 60% larger than Earth and has twice the gravity of Earth.

Assuming it is an Earth-like planet, having a rocky core, instead of a small gas planet; it is believed it has many active volcanoes due to its higher mass and density. The clouds on the planet would be thick and misty, covering much of the surface as viewed from space. It’s “Sun”, Kepler-452 would look almost identical to our Sun as viewed from the surface of Kepler-452.

It is not clear if Kepler-452b offers habitable environments. Its parent star, like the Sun, has nearly the same temperature and mass, but is 20% more luminous. However, the star is six billion years old, making it 1.5 billion years older than the Sun. At this point in its star’s life, Kepler-452b is receiving 10% more energy from its parent star than Earth is currently receiving from the Sun. If Kepler-452b is a rocky planet, it may be in a runaway greenhouse effect, similar to that seen on Venus.

If creatures on Kepler-452b were able to view life on Earth, they would see Earth as it was in the seventh century AD. And, if a ship from Earth were to travel there at the speed of the New Horizons spacecraft, it would take 26 million years to reach that world.

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This month’s meeting will be on August 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone, I hope you are staying cool in this summer heat. Our next meeting will occur July 14, as our new officers begin their new terms. Dues are now due, so break open the piggy bank, and renew your ALERT membership at our next meeting. See you there! ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… As we are entering the hottest weeks of the year, it’s a good time to talk about… HEAT & Its Dangers Heat and heat related illnesses are not something to be shrugged off. About 237 Americans die each year due to heat related illnesses. In arid regions such as the desert southwest, the heat lacks humidity, and though it will be blazing hot, the evaporation helps the body combat the heat, as evaporating sweat helps cool to body down. A “dry heat” is not as uncomfortable as the “humid heat” which we endure. In our semitropical climate, humidity from the Gulf works against our bodies cooling mechanisms – internal blood circulation adjustments, sweating and evaporation, not allowing the body to combat the heat, and we are in placed in a seriously dangerous situation. Though you are rapidly losing your body’s water reserves, up to 1.5 liters or 1.6 quarts per hour through sweating, the sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to dissipate the heat in the high humidity. We are familiar with the term “heat index”. This index was developed to help identify the danger zone, and express how the combined temperature and humidity “feels” or affects the human body. The Shaded Heat Index can be determined using this chart. I picked this version because it uses the Dewpoint. Some charts use Relative Humidity, which is fine, except the humidity is constantly varying with temperature fluctuations, while the Dewpoint usually remains fairly steady. Heat Index Chart (Temperature & Dewpoint) Dewpoint (° F) Temperature (° F) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 65 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 110 112 66 94 95 97 98 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 112 67 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 105 106 107 108 110 111 112 113 68 95 97 98 99 100 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 112 113 114 69 96 97 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 113 114 115 70 97 98 99 101 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 114 115 116 71 98 99 100 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 111 112 113 115 116 117 72 98 100 101 103 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 116 117 118 73 99 101 102 103 105 106 108 109 110 112 113 114 116 117 118 119 74 100 102 103 104 106 107 109 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 75 101 103 104 106 107 108 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 76 102 104 105 107 108 110 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 123 77 103 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 78 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 126 79 106 107 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 127 128 80 107 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 128 130 81 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 129 130 132 82 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 122 123 125 126 128 129 131 132 133 Note: Exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15° F HEAT INDEX EFFECTS 80 to 90 degrees – Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 90 to 105 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 105 to 130 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are likely, and heatstroke is possible, with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 130 degrees and higher – Heatstroke or sunstroke are highly likely with continued exposure. I hope you noticed the line stating that if you are in full sunlight the heat index can be up to 15 degrees higher than the indicated values. Be exceedingly careful with your exposure to the heat and sunlight. To help combat the heat danger, stay indoors as much as possible, hugging the air conditioner. Avoid strenuous activity. Wear loose, lightweight, light colored clothing made from cotton or linen, as they absorb your sweat and help with cooling. Your clothing is a vital defense. That’s why the age old habit of guys trying to act macho by stripping off as much as is legally possible, to show off their abs, pecs and biceps, isn’t the most intelligent move that one can make. You want to dress more like Sheik Omar, and less like a Krispy Critter. Wear a good sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher. Drink lots & lots of water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, as they dehydrate the body. Sports drinks are ok for a once one-jug drink to help replenish your electrolytes, but the body absorbs water much more quickly. Sports drinks are so loaded with minerals that the body misidentifies the juice as food and waits for it to be digested before sending it on to the lower innards to be absorbed into the body. Your dehydration worsens though your stomach is full of liquid. So make water your primary drink. Drink. Drink even if you aren’t thirsty. If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated. A rough guide to the minimum water intake needed to maintain body fluid while at rest in the shade is as follows: At 68 degrees drink 1.2 liters or 1.3 quarts At 77 degrees drink 1.4 liters or 1.5 quarts At 86 degrees drink 2.5 liters or 2.6 quarts At 95 degrees drink 5.1 liters or 5.4 quarts Note that just walking may double these requirements. It is better to drink small amounts of water, such as 250 – 350 liters or ¼ to 1/3 quarts every 20 minutes, rather than try to gulp large amounts of water every hour. To get down and earthy with the subject, if your urine is clear and there is a lot of it, you are properly hydrated, if this is not the case, if the urine dark or there is little or none being produced, you are in serious danger. Dehydration has been found to compromise mental function by dropping our brainpower by 25%. This keeps you from thinking straight & doing the smart things you need to do to help keep you above the daisies. Now let’s talk “pets” for a moment. One thing you should realize is that “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk. I once conducted an experiment by placing thermometers at different places on the ground to see what the critters & their footpads were having to endure. Some places, particularly the sidewalks and pavement the temperature easily reached 150 degrees. So, if you think, as was advocated on a local news program, that you are doing Old Shep a favor by taking him for a walk during the heat to keep him from being bored and flabby, I would suggest that you go barefoot with him. He can’t tell you the misery he is suffering, but I bet by your hopping, jumping and cussing that you will be able to decipher the message he has been sending more clearly – “Bubba, I told you this was a bad idea`.” You are not doing him a favor by forcing him to walk barefoot/bear paw on 140 degree pavement. Remember that dogs cannot tolerate too much heat. Their fur, which covers their entire bodies, prevents them from sweating. The only external surface not covered with fur is their paw pads — which explains the damp paw prints you might find on the sidewalk on hot summer days. They can have a heatstroke just as easily if not more so than you can. You don’t want to shave outdoor pets, by the way. If you remove their fur, you are removing the only protection they from getting a serious sunburn. Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together. Cats usually have enough sense to find a shady cool spot. Make sure their water bowl is full. Or better yet, keep them inside. If you can, make them a permanent indoor feature, as they live much longer indoors. That way dogs can’t get them and cars can’t squish them. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar. July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer. The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11. The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery. As you endure this heat, as mentioned in the preceding article, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun. The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley. This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS used for years. In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere. Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes. Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July. Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Looking towards the sky, Mercury is low in the glow of sunrise. Venus & Jupiter, the two bright “stars” you are seeing at sunset will be only 1/3 degrees apart on June 30 during and after evening twilight, in the west-northwest in Gemini. They will be only slightly more separated July 1. The Moon, Jupiter & Venus on June 20, 2015, by Mark Wells Mars is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius is highest in the South at sunset. To the lower left of Saturn twinkles the fiery orange star Antares. Uranus in Pisces is in the East before dawn begins to brighten. Neptune Aquarius is low in the Southeast before the first light of dawn. Overhead you will see the star Vega, one of the brightest stars in the heavens, which is located in the small constellation Lyra. Nearby is cross shaped Cygnus the swan. Binoculars reveal a sea of stars making up the Cygnus-Carina arm of the Milky Way Galaxy. Here the Kepler Space Telescope has found over 1000 planets, or more correctly “exoplanets” as they lie far beyond our solar system. July’s first Full Moon occurs July 1 at 9:19 PM CDT, and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”. On July NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft will arrive at Pluto after a nine and a half year journey. The probe, launched January 19, 2006 will be the first spacecraft to visit Pluto, and will give us our first close-up views of the dwarf planet and its moons. After passing Pluto, the probe will continue to the Kuiper Belt, a region of the Solar System extending from the orbit of Neptune to 50 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The doughnut shaped Kuiper Belt is similar to the asteroid belt, but 20 times as wide and 200 times as massive. It, like the asteroid belt consists of small bodies that are remnants of the Solar System’s formation, largely frozen material such as ammonia, methane and water. It is also the realm of three officially recognized dwarf planets – Pluto, Haumea & Makemake & probably several more yet to be detected. The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs July 15 at 8:24 PM CDT. The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th. This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour. Unfortunately a nearly Full Moon will wash out all but the brightest meteors. Still, it’s worth a peek. Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August. July will have a second Full Moon which will occur July 31 at 5:43 AM CDT. This, being a second Full Moon within the same month is often called, by modern definition, a “Blue Moon”. The older definition is “the third of four Full Moons in a single season. Sky and Telescope Magazine calls the modern definition “trendy” but, a “mistake”. This is interesting, since it was the March 1946 issue of Sky and Telescope which misinterpreted the definition and gave the current definition as “a second Full Moon in a single calendar month”, with no connection to the season. The next “old definition” Blue Moon will be May 21, 2016. 1854 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 25, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on July 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone, I hope all is going well & that you are finding a nice cool spot out of the pre-summer heat and showers. The biggest ALERT news of the month was our recent elections. At our last meeting the ALERT elections were held for the 2015 – 2016 term. The Officers for 2015 – 2016 are: President: Ronnie King WX4RON Vice-President & Membership: Roger Parsons KK4UDU NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas KV4S Secretary: Mike Lamb KK4OHW Operations: Steven Moss KB4FKN Training: Ronnie King WX4RON Treasurer: Johnny Knobloch KJ4OPX Public Information: Zac Hollingsworth W4ZAC Per the ALERT Bylaws our new Officers will assume their positions at the July 14 meeting. Thanks to all of our new officers for their service to our organization! One thing which will remain the same is our newsletter. I will continue on as the Editor-In-Chief, and hopefully will be able to provide interesting items for your enjoyment. I will also continue as the Net Manager of the ALERT Sunday Nite Net. If you have not checked in to our net I invite you to join us. We meet at 7PM Sunday on 146.88 MHz PL 88.5 hz. I hope to see you there! …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Proposed Amendments 4 & 5 At the May 12th ALERT Board of Directors meeting the following Amendments to the Constitution & Bylaws of ALERT were considered and approved by the Board. In compliance with ARTICLE XV, Section 1.2 an email notification was sent providing the required one month notification to the ALERT membership for their consideration of these proposed Amendments. The proposals will be discussed and voted on at the June meeting. Proposed Amendment 4 ARTICLE VIII Section 2. The Board of Directors shall be composed of the President, immediate past President, Trustee of the station and 3 operational “At Large” members appointed by the President. Two “At Large” members shall serve terms of one year and one “At Large” member shall serve for two years. The two-year member will be chosen every even year. Members are eligible for reappointment if so desired by the President. The President shall appoint members to fill any vacancies occurring within the year. (This adds an additional Board Member, so that we can facilitate Board business more efficiently.) Proposed Amendment 5 ARTICLE VI Section 1. The Officers of ALERT shall be: President Vice-President Treasurer / Membership Secretary NWS Liaison Operations Training Public Information (This transfers the Membership duties, which has been a combined position with Vice President position from the Vice-President to the Treasurer. This combined position will provide more efficient record keeping of ALERT members.) Please consider these Amendments, and plan to attend the June Meeting and let your voice be heard, Thanks …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 70% chance of a below normal season, with 6 to 11 named storms, 3 to 6 of which could become hurricanes, 0 to 2 possibly being category 3 or higher. There is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. They also caution not to automatically dismiss a “below normal season” as a minor thing. 1992 was a below normal season, and the first named storm, Andrew became a Category 5 storm, which devastated South Florida Even if there were only two named storms, and one is Katrina’s evil sister, it would be worse than having thirty five named storms that never approached land. This year our tropical season forgot to read the calendar, as we already have had a named storm – Tropical Storm Ana, which visited the Carolinas on May 10 with 60 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. Ana, which formed as a Subtropical Storm on May 8, was the earliest Atlantic Subtropical or Tropical cyclone since a storm also named “Ana” formed in April of 2003. It was also the earliest named storm to make landfall. Only the “Groundhog Day Storm” of 1952 struck earlier in the season. This Tropical Storm was detected, satellites not existing yet, off of the Yucatan Peninsula on February 2. A day later it struck near Cape Sable, Florida, headed for Miami and then off into the Atlantic, where it dissipated four days later. With the “official” 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans. Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways: 1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina. 2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20 tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period. 3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding. ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz. Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout. HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are: Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times. 3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday* 3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM 3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM 3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM 3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM 3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM * Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time. Wide Coverage Nets 14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed 3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern. Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.” Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”. Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this. Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio. Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ – Hurricane Forecast Models http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar, charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”. Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them. The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball: The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms. If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring. If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect. If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011. Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days. If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm. Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm. When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/, you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast. Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier. If not “more surreal & epic making me feel ecstatic”, to misuse the most grossly overused words in the verbiage of the moment. Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist. If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it. If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”. If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet. Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year. Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas. Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8. Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples. Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………. NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf For the Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf For the Eastern Pacific 2015 Tropical Cyclone Names The 2015 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Ana, Bill, Claudette, my old friend Danny, Ericka, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor & Wanda. Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2021. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms. If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day. What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages. The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1. Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms. Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years. The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland. The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred. Looking skyward, at the first of the month Mercury is hidden in the glow of the Sun. By the end of the month He will have emerged and will reach His highest elevation, 22.5 degrees from the Sun June 24, low in the Eastern sky just before sunrise. Venus, the brilliant “Evening Star”, blazes in the West in Gemini during and after evening twilight, setting in the west-northwest nearly two hours after dark. It is currently in “half-moon phase” in telescopes. She will be at her highest altitude on June 6, when she will be 45.4 degrees above the Sun. Mars is lost in the sunset. Jupiter at the Cancer / Leo border is high in the South is high in the West to the upper left of Venus. The two are moving towards each other and will be very close at the end of June, only 0.3 degrees apart on July 1, which will provide a spectacular sight in the twilight sky. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius shines low it the Southeast at twilight and is highest in the South at midnight. His rings are tilted 24 degrees from edgewise, making for a beautiful display in telescopes. Uranus in Pisces is very low in the East as dawn begins to brighten. Neptune is low in the East-Southeast before the first light of dawn. June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 2 at 11:19 AM CDT. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to harvest strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”. New Moon will occur June 16 at 9:05 AM CDT Summer Solstice will occur at 11:38 AM CDT on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.26 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Mark June 25 on your calendar and think about Christmas. Why? Because this is how Christmas, which is six months away, feels like in Australia and Brazil on December 25. The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years. Incidentally, though it may be too soon, and probably is too soon to say, there is a possibility that in six months we will have a Christmas comet – Comet Catalina visible in the evening sky. 1846 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ 1027 of these planets have been detected by NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope alone, which is looking at a small patch of sky in the constellations Cygnus, Lyra & Draco. How many other worlds lie outside of this little keyhole just now being peeked through? Are other eyes “out there” looking towards us, wondering as we do, if there is anyone else out there among the stars? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on June 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database