ALERT NEWSLETTER – June 2015

Hi everyone, I hope all is going well & that you are finding a nice cool spot out of the pre-summer heat and showers. The biggest ALERT news of the month was our recent elections. At our last meeting the ALERT elections were held for the 2015 – 2016 term. The Officers for 2015 – 2016 are: President: Ronnie King WX4RON Vice-President & Membership: Roger Parsons KK4UDU NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas KV4S Secretary: Mike Lamb KK4OHW Operations: Steven Moss KB4FKN Training: Ronnie King WX4RON Treasurer: Johnny Knobloch KJ4OPX Public Information: Zac Hollingsworth W4ZAC Per the ALERT Bylaws our new Officers will assume their positions at the July 14 meeting. Thanks to all of our new officers for their service to our organization! One thing which will remain the same is our newsletter. I will continue on as the Editor-In-Chief, and hopefully will be able to provide interesting items for your enjoyment. I will also continue as the Net Manager of the ALERT Sunday Nite Net. If you have not checked in to our net I invite you to join us. We meet at 7PM Sunday on 146.88 MHz PL 88.5 hz. I hope to see you there! …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Proposed Amendments 4 & 5 At the May 12th ALERT Board of Directors meeting the following Amendments to the Constitution & Bylaws of ALERT were considered and approved by the Board. In compliance with ARTICLE XV, Section 1.2 an email notification was sent providing the required one month notification to the ALERT membership for their consideration of these proposed Amendments. The proposals will be discussed and voted on at the June meeting. Proposed Amendment 4 ARTICLE VIII Section 2. The Board of Directors shall be composed of the President, immediate past President, Trustee of the station and 3 operational “At Large” members appointed by the President. Two “At Large” members shall serve terms of one year and one “At Large” member shall serve for two years. The two-year member will be chosen every even year. Members are eligible for reappointment if so desired by the President. The President shall appoint members to fill any vacancies occurring within the year. (This adds an additional Board Member, so that we can facilitate Board business more efficiently.) Proposed Amendment 5 ARTICLE VI Section 1. The Officers of ALERT shall be: President Vice-President Treasurer / Membership Secretary NWS Liaison Operations Training Public Information (This transfers the Membership duties, which has been a combined position with Vice President position from the Vice-President to the Treasurer. This combined position will provide more efficient record keeping of ALERT members.) Please consider these Amendments, and plan to attend the June Meeting and let your voice be heard, Thanks …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 70% chance of a below normal season, with 6 to 11 named storms, 3 to 6 of which could become hurricanes, 0 to 2 possibly being category 3 or higher. There is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. They also caution not to automatically dismiss a “below normal season” as a minor thing. 1992 was a below normal season, and the first named storm, Andrew became a Category 5 storm, which devastated South Florida Even if there were only two named storms, and one is Katrina’s evil sister, it would be worse than having thirty five named storms that never approached land. This year our tropical season forgot to read the calendar, as we already have had a named storm – Tropical Storm Ana, which visited the Carolinas on May 10 with 60 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. Ana, which formed as a Subtropical Storm on May 8, was the earliest Atlantic Subtropical or Tropical cyclone since a storm also named “Ana” formed in April of 2003. It was also the earliest named storm to make landfall. Only the “Groundhog Day Storm” of 1952 struck earlier in the season. This Tropical Storm was detected, satellites not existing yet, off of the Yucatan Peninsula on February 2. A day later it struck near Cape Sable, Florida, headed for Miami and then off into the Atlantic, where it dissipated four days later. With the “official” 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans. Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways: 1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina. 2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20 tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period. 3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding. ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz. Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout. HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are: Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times. 3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday* 3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM 3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM 3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM 3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM 3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM * Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time. Wide Coverage Nets 14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed 3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern. Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.” Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”. Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this. Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio. Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ – Hurricane Forecast Models http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar, charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”. Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them. The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball: The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms. If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring. If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect. If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011. Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days. If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm. Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm. When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/, you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast. Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier. If not “more surreal & epic making me feel ecstatic”, to misuse the most grossly overused words in the verbiage of the moment. Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist. If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it. If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”. If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet. Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year. Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas. Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8. Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples. Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………. NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf For the Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf For the Eastern Pacific 2015 Tropical Cyclone Names The 2015 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Ana, Bill, Claudette, my old friend Danny, Ericka, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor & Wanda. Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2021. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms. If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day. What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages. The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1. Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms. Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years. The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland. The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred. Looking skyward, at the first of the month Mercury is hidden in the glow of the Sun. By the end of the month He will have emerged and will reach His highest elevation, 22.5 degrees from the Sun June 24, low in the Eastern sky just before sunrise. Venus, the brilliant “Evening Star”, blazes in the West in Gemini during and after evening twilight, setting in the west-northwest nearly two hours after dark. It is currently in “half-moon phase” in telescopes. She will be at her highest altitude on June 6, when she will be 45.4 degrees above the Sun. Mars is lost in the sunset. Jupiter at the Cancer / Leo border is high in the South is high in the West to the upper left of Venus. The two are moving towards each other and will be very close at the end of June, only 0.3 degrees apart on July 1, which will provide a spectacular sight in the twilight sky. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius shines low it the Southeast at twilight and is highest in the South at midnight. His rings are tilted 24 degrees from edgewise, making for a beautiful display in telescopes. Uranus in Pisces is very low in the East as dawn begins to brighten. Neptune is low in the East-Southeast before the first light of dawn. June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 2 at 11:19 AM CDT. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to harvest strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”. New Moon will occur June 16 at 9:05 AM CDT Summer Solstice will occur at 11:38 AM CDT on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.26 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Mark June 25 on your calendar and think about Christmas. Why? Because this is how Christmas, which is six months away, feels like in Australia and Brazil on December 25. The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years. Incidentally, though it may be too soon, and probably is too soon to say, there is a possibility that in six months we will have a Christmas comet – Comet Catalina visible in the evening sky. 1846 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ 1027 of these planets have been detected by NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope alone, which is looking at a small patch of sky in the constellations Cygnus, Lyra & Draco. How many other worlds lie outside of this little keyhole just now being peeked through? Are other eyes “out there” looking towards us, wondering as we do, if there is anyone else out there among the stars? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on June 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database