ALERT NEWSLETTER – February 2014

Hi Everyone, As I type this, this cold and snowy night, I am reminded that emergencies and disasters can come in many forms and many with little or no warning. This week’s events illustrates that even with the best science, equipment and training we can still get blindsided. This is a hazard that exists with any scenario you can think of. So I have a question for you – are you prepared for an emergency? Have you studied the various dangers that you and your family could face? This includes large scale dangers, such as tornado outbreaks and small, neighborhood dangers such as floods, and man-made dangers, such as road accidents and accidents at nearby industrial sites. This includes dangers you pass by daily as you travel to and from work. Do you know how to get home should your primary and secondary routes become impassible? Do you have a stockpile of emergency supplies at home and at work? FEMA recommends a three-day supply of food and water – one gallon per person per day and food that will not spoil. To which I’ll say preferably not bread and milk. Why not choose cans of chili or stew & invest in a portable means of cooking them One change of clothing and footwear per person One blanket or sleeping bag per person A first aid kit that includes your family’s prescription medications. Emergency tools including a battery-powered radio, flashlights and plenty of extra batteries. An extra set of car keys and a credit card, cash in small bills or traveler’s checks. Sanitation supplies. Special items for infants, the elderly, disabled family members & pets. An extra pair of glasses. Keep important family documents in a waterproof container. And, though never listed, I’ll add keep a helmet at home – bicycle, hardhat or football, to protect your head from injuries during a tornado. Remember it’s not FEMA or the NWS’s responsibility for your personal emergency plan. It’s YOUR responsibility. A Basic Preparedness Guide is available at:

Click to access basic_preparedness.pdf

To go a step further, I recommend IS22 “Are You Ready”, which is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. IS22 “Are You Ready” is available at http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/ The old 1960’s (once required high school reading) Civil Defense book “SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival” recommended a 21-day emergency supply. This is probably a more realistic goal, in that in anything other than an isolated neighborhood emergency; it is very likely that it would take in excess of 72 hours for the infrastructure to return to normal & for you to be back “on the grid”. Katrina, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 and the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak all are good examples. SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival is available at http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-Personal_and_Family_Survival.html Post disaster recovery guidance is also vital. I recommend:

Click to access RedGuide_Quick_Start_Guide_2012.pdf

Also, though I never see this mentioned in most preparedness manuals, a basic knowledge of survival – obtaining/creating shelter, firecraft, purifying water and obtaining food are good idea. An example as to why this is important is the Japanese disaster. News media referred to this as the “dual disaster” – an earthquake and a tsunami. They were wrong. It was a triple disaster. For after the two headline events, the temperature then dropped to freezing, and it snowed on survivors struggling with neither shelter nor heat. How many survivors died of hypothermia? How many wouldn’t have died if they had had basic survival knowledge of how to throw a simple debris shelter together on the fly? Good resources for this information are Cody Lundin’s books on survival and preparedness: “98.6 Degrees: The Art of Keeping Your Ass Alive“ and “When All Hell Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need to Survive When Disaster Strikes”. Les Stroud’s Book “Survive!” also is very worthwhile reading. John “Lofty” Wiseman’s SAS Survival Manual is the most comprehensive book I’ve seen. Do You Have A Get Home Kit? A “Get Home Kit” is a collection on items you keep in your car to help you get home in case of an emergency, remembering that emergencies, as we are seeing, come in all shapes and sizes. Recently we acquired a new car, one that is smaller and less thirsty than our SUV. The first thing I wanted to do is make a Get Home Kit, a smaller version of the one I already have in the SUV. The first part of the kit deals directly with the car’s health. In my experience, most car emergencies (excluding accidents) usually involve the tires, battery or cooling system. Anything beyond this, I’ll need a tow truck. My kit contains the following: For flats I have an air compressor, a tire repair kit, and a can of Fix-a-flat. The compressor is handy for slow leaks, or as a temporary fix to get you to a tire shop or a safer location. Just “pump that puppy up” and go on your way. It also cures the “my spare was flat” problem. Usually the spare hasn’t been damaged, it just has had the air leak out over months or years. Sometimes you can plug a puncture with a tire repair kit, so it is included. You basically ream the hole out with the tool supplied, apply a plug with epoxy, inflate the tire and drive on. Some friends have said “surely you don’t use that Fix-a-flat stuff, you know mechanics hate it”. The answer of course, is “yes, if I have to”. After all, it isn’t the mechanic who is stuck on the side of the road – it’s me. He can get over it, especially when I hand him some money. If there is a nail in the tire, I know not to pull it out & I also know that tire sidewall damage is not repairable. For battery failure, either my own, or to help someone, I have jumper cables, and a battery terminal cleaning kit. (I have the silver one that looks like a giant suppository). Other items include: Tool Kit Flares A reflective vest, rain poncho and cap Antifreeze, brake and transmission fluid A charged cellphone & a charged deactivated cellphone for 911 calls GPS AAA Card The second half of my kit is what I consider a “minimal survival kit”, which is largely based on a concept called “the 5 & 10 C’s Of Survivability”, developed by Dave Canterbury, of “The Pathfinder School” in Jackson Ohio. The fundamental idea is that there are vital objects carried and used by explorers, pioneers and indigenous tribes, throughout history from the Ice Age to today which cannot be easily made in the field, either due to lack of resources or a requirement for specialized knowledge of how to manufacture them or specialized equipment one would normally not carry. Keeping these items on hand dramatically improves your survivability. For example, consider a knife. How easily could you forge one in the field? Or can you make rope whenever you need it? So with these thoughts in mind let’s detail the “C’s”, which you should have. The 5 C’s of Survivability COVERING For preventing hypothermia or hyperthermia, your first line of defense is to dress appropriately for the weather expected. In the car I have a hoodie, a rain jacket, an umbrella, a couple of fleece blankets, a tarp, which can be used as a ground cover or quickie shelter, and a Mylar “space blanket”. Remember that you can die within three hours if you do not protect your body core temperature. And, it doesn’t need to be freezing to do so. Just get wet in 40 degree weather, and you will be in serious trouble. CONTAINER I carry two small water bottles and a larger one as reserve, and a metal cup to use for filtering and purifying water. I can do so by either by boiling or by treating water chemically with purification tablets. CUTTING TOOL From cutting boxes to working with wood & cordage a knife is indispensable. The knife I carry is one given to me by a roofing company as an advertisement. It’s a decent folding knife, cuts well, and since I paid nothing for it, I’m not afraid to work with it. I might be hesitant to use it if it were a higher priced one. I didn’t say abuse it, for I believe in “taking care of the equipment that will take care of you”. I do have larger and better ones I reserve for hiking and camping. This is not a “Tarzan” or “Rambo” knife, as the blade is only three inches long. But, that’s long enough, for you will find a larger blade is too unwieldy for fine work & carrying a 19 inch Bowie knife strapped on can make the police become just a little suspicious. COMBUSTION For lighting pilot lights or campfires, to quote Major Mykel Hawke, author of “Hawke’s Green Beret Survival Manual”, “just carry a doggone stinkin lighter”. Also, I carry a backup magnesium bar with a Ferrocerium rod and some “strike anywhere matches”. Firecraft is more than striking a match & you have a warm fire. It requires the correct material and the correct techniques. Take the time to familiarize yourself with this art. CORDAGE For securing items & strengthening items, carry paracord, rope, twine, etc. This helps facilitate building shelters & securing cargo and equipment. The other 5 C’s of Survivability These are the modern items to enhance survivability, and include: CANDELING Carry a good flashlight or two, along with extra batteries. This includes a LED headlamp for hands free operation. COTTON BANDANA Any cotton material, 3×3 feet, can be used for a head cover, cleaning, filtering water, or used as a bandage or a sling. COMPASS Carry a good quality compass for navigation and learn how to use it. Remember that a GPS can have battery failure, have “rain outages” and that the satellites, which are constantly shuffling around in a low Earth orbit, can travel out of range. However a compass is generally a reliably usable tool. In choosing a compass, look at several and test them. If they won’t quickly and correctly point to North in Walmart, they won’t work in the field either. Use the compass as your primary navigation tool, backed up by the GPS. CARGO TAPE Also known as Duct tape, it can be used for repairs, making things, bandaging things and thousands of other uses. CANVAS NEEDLE While it is suggested that you carry a heavy duty canvas needle for repairs, sewing, and other uses, I carry a miniature sewing kit, with a variety of needles, for sewing clothing or if I had to, for sewing ME. To these 10 C’s I would add: COMMUNICATIONS & SIGNALLING Carry and keep a charged handi-talkie & cellphone. Also, have a way to signal rescuers, audibly and visually. My kit includes a whistle and a signal mirror. With cellphones if you seem to have no signal or connectivity, try texting, for low these low bandwidth signals often can worm their way through crowded circuits while voice communications is impossible. Have a 2 meter rig in your car. I also have a CB in the SUV. A whistle has greater range than a human voice, and it is said that a signal mirror is credited with 80% of rescues in wilderness search and rescue scenarios. A few other items I’ll throw in are a small first aid kit, an extra pair of glasses, sun glasses and a backpack to carry this all in should I have to hike home. This may sound like a lot, but it actually can fit in a 1 x 1 foot box. This covers everything from mechanical breakdowns to having “hole up” in or near your car, or having to abandon the car and hike into your neighborhood, even should the roads become impassable, or landmarks left unrecognizable by a disaster. Remembering that we spend over a third of our lives AWAY from home, this idea is a practical one. Finally, my preparedness philosophy is as follows: I believe that we should be a like Noah, (especially since we work for NOAA), and, be in a state of preparedness. But, then after having prepared, we should go have some fun and live life. Not be nutty or weird, but just knowledgeable and prepared. We can’t prevent disasters from happening. But, we can help reduce the impact they have on our little corner of the world. “A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.” – Proverbs 22:3 ………………………………………………………………………………………………. How Cold is Cold? I gleaned this from an Alaska Magazine many decades ago… At a temperature of: – 10 degrees – salt won’t melt road ice – 20 degrees – exposed flesh will freeze in 1 minute and car batteries begin to fail – 30 degrees – oil thickens into jelly and won’t flow and car transmissions begin to fail – 40 degrees – mercury thermometers freeze. Propane remains liquid making heaters useless and only jets can fly. – 50 degrees – water vapor from ones breath freezes instantly. Rubber tires lose elasticity and hardens in place, leaving flat spots. – 70 degrees – exposed flesh will freeze in 30 seconds. ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Mark’s Almanac February is named “Februa”, the Latin word signifying the festivals of purification celebrated in Ancient Rome during this month. February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January. Also, February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so now only Leap Year has 29 days. In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month. Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more. There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15. Ground Hog Day was on February 2 & believers watched Punxsutawney Phil and Birmingham Bill, to see if they saw their shadows. Looking skyward, Mercury is low in the west-southwest as twilight fades. Venus shines in the east-southeast at dawn. Mars rises around 11 p.m. in Virgo and is highest in the south around 4 a.m. Jupiter in Gemini dominates the evening sky as it passes overhead, reaching the zenith around 10 p.m. Saturn in Libra rises around 2 a.m. and is high in the east-southeast at first light of dawn. Uranus in Pisces is low in the west-southwest just after dark. Neptune is disappearing in the evening twilight. The February sky is alit with bright stars. With Orion the Hunter overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky. February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane. Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness. February’s Full Moon is “Cold Moon” or “Snow Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur at 5:53 PM February 14. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on February 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL ALERT http://weatherlynx.webs.com