ALERT Newsletter – June 2013

Hi Everyone, I hope all is going well with you. To start our lengthy newsletter, I’ll just give a quick reminder that the ALERT elections will be held at our June 11 meeting. I urge you to attend and let your voice be heard. I hope to see you there! ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Broadcast Irresponsibility This is the only way I can kindly describe it, as I sit listening to a replay of Oklahoma City’s KFOR Meteorologist Mike Morgan telling his viewers at least eight times to get in their cars and drive south of the city as a large rain wrapped tornado rapidly bore down on the city. Though admitting that the interstate was already a “parking lot”, since it was rush hour, he later advised people twice to “abandon your cars” as the storm reached the city. “Unfortunately there are hundreds and hundreds of cars on the road……a lot of people are panicking trying to leave their house…..you really can’t move very much.” – Chase Thomason KFOR See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX7uzdfktB4 & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnCP4TMhUTo Of the eighteen persons killed in this tornado, at least nine were in vehicles. With the exception of the three storm chasers killed and those chasers almost killed, how many of these people would not have even been in their cars in the first place, if they had not been told to flee some minutes earlier by someone whose opinion they trusted and relied on? How many times have we been told not to try to chase or outrun a tornado, especially in a major metropolitan area? But, here it was being recommended that people expose themselves to not only one, but other developing tornadoes, flying debris, 80 MPH straight line winds and baseball sized hail, all the while stranded on gridlocked roadways. Then add the fact that the tornado became a “right turner” and veered southward towards Morgan’s recommended escape route, and all I can say is what comedian Bill Engvall would say. Mike, “Here’s your sign.” ———————————————————————————————————————— Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st marks the beginning of our north Atlantic Hurricane season. NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, this including 3 to 6 major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher. These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 2013 Atlantic Basin Storm Names are as follows: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy As hurricane season begins, this is a good time to review our tropical preparedness plans. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Alabama Hurricane Impact & ALERT Hurricane Response Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways: 1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina. 2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20 tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period. 3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding. ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. Most of our activity is when the storm is near the coast normally was on HF at 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz. However, since we currently are without HF capability and with the ever-improving coverage on D-Star, ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using an offsite liaison station to monitor HF activity. Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout. HF SSB Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are: Primary State ARES SSB Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times. 3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday* 3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM 3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM 3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM 3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM 3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM * Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time. Wide Coverage SSB Nets 14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed 3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, you should only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. Legitimate needs being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the effected area is their primary concern. Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL http://14300stream.homeip.net:88/broadwave.asx?src=fhwn&kbps=16 Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ Hurricane Forecast Models http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Satellite imagery and data – worldwide http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Storm centered satellite imagery These and many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar, charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”. You may wish to bookmark this link. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. How to Meet the Reaper #4 & 5 Continuing our series on disaster preparedness, we will look at the fourth and fifth main causes of “Meeting St. Peter” during a disaster. Previously we have dealt with: Physical trauma, Exposure to the elements & Dehydration. So logically you might think that the next cause would be Starvation. But, remembering the time scales which we are dealing with – 0 to 72 hours for a short term emergency and up to 21 days for a medium term emergency, you would be wrong. Unless you are already physically compromised or have special mandatory daily dietary needs, you will not starve to death due to 3 to 21 days without food. In fact FAA survival training says up to 30 days and you will be ok, though you will certainly feel miserable, weak and “played out”. The fact is that you will not die if you miss three days of eating. I know this is true for I have done this and so have you. When, you may ask? Remember that time you were so sick that you were sure you were throwing up all your vital organs? For three days you were lucky if you kept air down, let alone water and you said “please don’t even mention food”. You had no food intake, and little water. You were dehydrated, and probably feverish, but, since you are reading this, you know that you survived. As for three weeks without food, many people purposely fast for this long or longer, either for medical or religious reasons and survive. They say “drink lots of liquids, either water or juices”. The best way to prepare for food shortages is to prestock a supply of food, either as a dedicated emergency supply or a “well stocked cupboard”. For a basic three day supply you can follow FEMA guidelines and adding a few items, you can store three milk jugs worth of water, three packets of instant oatmeal for breakfast, three cans of deviled ham and other spreads and some crackers for lunch & three cans of food – chili, stew, chicken and dumplings for supper. Then add the recommended roll of duct tape, some clear plastic sheeting and your medicine supply. Get a 2 by 2 foot box to put it in, and you now have a three-day emergency kit for one person that fits in a closet. For a period longer than three days, preferably 21 days, you can prepare more extensively and if you do it all at once, go full bore and fully into debt. However there is another way. Start small. Let’s talk food for example. The way to stockpile food is simple. If you eat a can of green beans, when you go to the store by two cans. Eat another can? Buy two more. That gives a stockpile three deep. Then just replace as used. Do this gradually with everything you eat and soon you will have a supply two to three weeks deep. With an added benefit that the food you have stored is food you normally like. As opposed to bulk “survival food” or a pallet of military MRE’s that may prove as tasty as decaying cardboard. Familiar food is psychologically comforting. Plus its food your system is used to and therefore much less likely to cause “unfortunate gastronomical consequences”. Start small and gradually build. Think of it as “the art of useful accumulation”. Don’t forget that Puss and Fido will need food also. There is a recommended order in consuming your food during an emergency. First, I’ll say, that if you are very short on water, refrain from eating, as the digestive processes will use up your bodies limited water reserves, and dehydrate you. Also, flashing back for a second to our discussion on water, don’t ration your water. The old saying is “ration sweat, not water”. Continuing on, going on the assumption that the power is going to be out for an extended length of time, eat the refrigerated food within 48 hours of the onset, and the frozen food the next day. Eat everything you can’t preserve as you will be throwing it out anyway. Then begin eating the pantry supplies, reducing the amount you eat to stretch your food supply. When storing food, remember to get food with nutritional value. Products such as Ramen noodles may store well and may taste good, but, if you read the nutritional information you may find the plastic wrapper sounds more nutritious than the actual food. The same can be said for the semi- legendary “bread and milk” option of which we are all so familiar. Get something like canned spaghetti or chili instead. Choose something with some “substance”. Let’s talk calories for a moment. Calories are actually a measure of potential food energy, or namely the amount of energy needed to raise the temperature of one gram of water by one degree Celsius. If you are counting calories before an emergency, you still must do so after the event. But, you should count them in reverse. In other words you need high calorie food to replace the calories or energy reserves you burn by physical activity. How many? Use the “14, 17, 20 Rule”. Which is your body weight multiplied by a number indicating your activity level. For instance I weigh 166 pounds, so I have to replace the following calories to maintain my energy reserves: 166 X 14 = 2324 Calories burned with NO physical activity – resting. 166 X 17 = 2822 Calories burned with moderate activity – walking 166 X 20 = 3320 Calories burned with heavy physical activity – chopping, digging, running, etc. Other things, such as shivering can add to the total. Shivering will burn up 500 calories per hour. That may actually sound good, if you are trying to control your weight. But, the thing to remember is that what makes calories such a bad thing for weight loss isn’t necessarily the calories themselves, but, the fact that the person burns fewer calories than they consume. The excess calories don’t get burned and end up adding to your body fat content. In our scenario, however, the work being done is rapidly burning calories, so you need calories to help fuel your body’s energy supply. All work and no calories, and you will deplete your body’s “battery”. Now if you do have some fat tucked somewhere, your body will begin start to use what fat you have as an emergency reserve, in a process called “catabolism”, and once it is gone, then you are in trouble. This is why I have always had the kooky theory that being a little overweight may not be all that bad. At least you have some weight to lose in an emergency, whereas if you have none there is nothing to fall back on. Not that I’m advocating looking like a sumo wrestler, but purposely prestarving oneself into a bag of bones doesn’t seem all that wise a move either, nor does it look as wonderful as is supposed. In an interesting side note, survival expert Dr. Ron Hood observed during field training classes that while the lean mean guys with rippling abs had much superior energy at the beginning of the field exercises, as time went on their energy levels petered out while their fellow pudgier plodders still seemed to have energy to continue on. His theory was that since the Adonis’s of the group had no body fat, their bodies lacked the energy reserves that the fat would have supplied. Before moving on I’ll mention briefly that there is a certain survival mythology that “I’ll just live off the land like Daniel Boone” after a large scale disaster. That won’t exactly work in an urban environment, for donning camouflage; grabbing a rifle and going “wabbitt hunting” in an urban setting would probably get you shot. And even in a rural setting, if you think about hunting large game, unless you are an experienced hunter, with knowledge of how to process and preserve the game you secure, within three days or less you will end up with a stinking mass of rotting meat, and will be in far worse shape than you were before. Some think that setting traps would be an answer, but traps are indiscriminate. They may catch the squirrel that you are after, but, it is just as likely that you will catch your neighbors Rottweiler or toddler, and then YOU will have to deal with an angry Rottweiler, his owner or an even angrier father. You can supplement your food supply with “wild food”, or as the Australians call it “Bush Tucker”, such as dandelion, clover and other wild edibles. You will need to do some research and pick about four or five plants that actually grow in your area, for knowing what is edible in the Sonora desert doesn’t help too much in Alabama. If you do choose this option, try to pick plants that are at least 50 feet from a roadway and which have not been sprayed with Round Up or one of its cousins or you may end up losing your appetite permanently. Also, slowly introduce the plants into your system, as your tummy isn’t used to such fare. You won’t get sick, but, you may need to stay downwind of everyone else for a while This leads us into our 4th way of “Hitching The Last Ride”. How To Meet The Reaper #4 – Sanitation or the Lack Thereof. As is the case with water, we take the Porcelain Thrones for granted. Not many of us outside of the asylum gently pat our “Oval Offices” and say “oh faithful friend, thank you for being there in my times of need”. But, just as any other modern convenience, the “Potty” can be easily disabled in a number of ways. The water supply can be compromised where you can’t flush it. Or, the pipes going to the sewer or septic tank can be severed. Earthquakes are very good about doing this. Flooding can overwhelm the sewage system causing the sewage to back up into your house. Also, think for a moment about household garbage. After major holidays the streets are lined with clusters of garbage bags, due to the sanitation workers being off work. Let them go on strike and mounds of garbage accumulate. What happens if sanitation services temporarily no longer exist? Combine these two problems, and you have filth, then flies, then ultimately you can have disease outbreaks. The Centers for Disease Control says that since cholera and typhoid are not commonly found in the U.S. Gulf States area it is very unlikely that they would occur after a disaster. However short bouts of diarrhea and upset stomach and colds or other breathing diseases sometimes occur. There’s nothing like a good old case of dysentery to help enliven your steps. Basic hygiene measures like frequent hand washing or use of an alcohol hand gel, especially after using the restroom or changing diapers and before eating, can help prevent these diseases. Keeping clean is essential to good health, especially with debris, death and decay all around you. This is why units such as the Southern Baptist Disaster Service Shower Units are so important, not just for helping maintain morale and human dignity, but in preventing outbreaks of disease. If you have water available to you for bathing, make sure to do so, even if you have to make a makeshift shower using a spray bottle. Or if water is in short supply, you can, as I’ve heard it called, take a “cat bath” with a wet wash cloth to clean the teeth, wash your face, and wash the “rest” of the body. Be sure to wash the face first and then the “other areas” last, if you catch my drift. Water substitutes that can be used for cleansing are rubbing alcohol, lotions containing alcohol, shaving lotion, shaving cream, face creams, lotions & towelettes. Now let me give you the poop about potty problems. If the water supply is interrupted you may still be able to flush it by pouring a bucket of water into the bowl. If you are short of water to begin with, that may not be an option. However, if you have access to other water sources, such as a creek or stream, you may still be in business. Water for toilet flushing doesn’t need to be purified. Another option is to make a makeshift toilet. If the toilet bowl is intact, place a plastic garbage bag inside the bowl and once used, place the waste into a container. Sanitize the waste, after each use, pouring a disinfectant such as bleach into the container, and cover the container tightly when not in use. If the toilet is completely disabled or missing, you can make your own. Line a medium-sized bucket with a garbage bag, and make a toilet seat out of two boards placed parallel to each other over the bucket. An old toilet seat will also work. This is basically the same as a bedside commode. If your toilet paper supply has disappeared with the toilet, use a rag dedicated for cleaning purposes. Try to make sure you don’t mix “that rag” with rags you may use for other chores, such as cooking. To dispose of waste, both garbage and human waste, you can dig a pit 2 to 3 feet deep, located if possible, at least 50 feet downhill or away from any well, spring or water supply and bury it. If the garbage cannot be buried immediately, wrap the residue in several layers of newspapers and store it in a large can with a tight-fitting lid. Place the can outside until it can be buried. In a “long term” situation an old fashioned outhouse could be built. How to Meet the Reaper # 5 To conclude this series we will briefly touch on the fifth way to “reach infinity and beyond” – People. By “people” I don’t mean marauding bands of hoodlums ransacking your remaining goods, or as in New Orleans, carting off looted big screen TV’s to use underwater, or other harebrained actions. I mean peoples actions, and attitudes towards emergency preparedness and survivability in general. Some people doom their survivability by refusing to prepare for disasters. Some refuse to prepare because they honestly feel that IT will never happen to them. That’s the old “it only happens in Bangladesh” theory. Some refuse to prepare thinking “the government will take care of me” or the similar thought that “it’s the government’s DUTY to take care of me”, personal responsibility be hanged. Some refuse for fear of looking like a nut or out of financial concerns, which may be valid concerns. Some refuse because they just don’t care about the subject, and know that YOU do, laugh at you and your preparations, but KNOW that YOU will be more than glad to bail them out. After all, isn’t that YOUR DUTY? This, by the way, is why it’s best not to advertise your activities. This is a concept known as “Operational Security”. Silence is a good thing, unless of course you actually do want to be considered the community food bank. Some feel that preparing is an exercise in futility. “Look at Moore Oklahoma”, they may say. “What good would preparing have done, since, everything was blown away?” If you were at “ground zero” of that EF5 tornado, there is some logic to this. However remember that the tornado began as EF0 ramped up the scale to EF5 and then back down to an EF0 again before dissipating. In other words, only a small section of the damage path experienced EF5 damage. A good example of what I am saying is the story of my friend “Joe”. If one drives down “Joe’s” street, on one side of the street is his house and the twisted remains of broken trees. On the other side there is a field, empty as far as the eye could see, where the April 27, 2011 EF4 tornado wiped out the rest of the neighborhood. During the storm “Joe’s” house was damaged; he was trapped in the house for a week, because it took a week to clear a path to the street. He had no water, no lights, no gas, and little food. He said he was grateful when the Salvation Army drove by and gave him some water. Would preparations have helped the neighbors across the street? Probably Not. Would they have helped “Joe”? Absolutely. Has “Joe” since become a believer in personal emergency preparedness? Well of course not. But, then that’s “Joe”. Whatever the reasons may be, peoples inaction can condemn their survivability, when they could take positive actions such as researching the subject, preparing safe rooms and stocking basic supplies to improve the odds that their family may live to see tomorrow. Some doom their survivability with their chronic negativity, by constantly criticizing everyone elses efforts and methods, but not hesitating to reap the benefits of the same. In long term situations they undermine the groups unity, morale and will to live, and can cause defeat in an otherwise winnable situation. A positive attitude plays a crucial role in survivability. The determination to survive for your family, for yourself or just “winning for winnings sake” cannot be underestimated, for 90% of survival is achieved mentally, not physically. But, even more crucial to one’s survival is the power of faith. Never underestimate the positive power of faith and the ONE to whom that faith is directed. I call it the “God Factor”. It can literally make the difference between life and death. With this we close our series, which I hope you have found useful. In parting I’ll repeat my disclaimer “that these articles are intended solely to pique your interest so that you will study the subject further, and that neither I, claiming no expertise in the subject nor ALERT nor the NWS will be held responsible for consequences of actions tried or not tried based on the information discussed in these articles.”. Here’s hoping that you will investigate, not litigate. …………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day. What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages. The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1. Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms. Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years. The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland. The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred. Summer Solstice will occur at 12:04 AM CDT on June 21. June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 23 at 6:33 AM CDT In the evening sky Mercury, Venus and Jupiter are bunched together in a triple alignment low in the Northwestern sky in the afterglow of sunset. 40 minutes after sunset look for Jupiter near the horizon with Venus above and Mercury above Venus. Mars is hidden in the glare of the sun. Saturn is in the Southeast at twilight and highest in the sky right after dark. His rings are currently tilted at 18 degrees to our line of sight. Uranus is low in the East at the crack of dawn. Neptune is low in the Southeast just before the first light of dawn. The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years. June 4th, by the way, is World Naturist (nudist) Day. Should you decide to go au naturel give me fair warning and a 15 minute head start for somewhere, anywhere. ………………………………………………………………………………………. In closing, take care, and I hope to see you at the June 11th meeting! Mark / WD4NYL Training Officer ALERT www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/