ALERT Newsletter – February 2012

Hi Everyone, Officially next month begins our spring severe weather season, but as we saw two weeks ago, tornadoes can strike at any time day or night. This latest tornado outbreak helps drive home the question – are you prepared? Now is the time to take the time to review your emergency preparedness plans and to brush up on your skills – including communications, stormspotting and especially personal and family safety. Now is the time to prepare, don’t wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late. In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions: Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready? Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working? Are the batteries charged? Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources. Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings? Are you really prepared? And, I’m just not talking ALERT callouts, radios and antennas. I’m talking keeping you and your family alive and intact during and after the storms. For this should be your number one priority. Rememberyou can’t respond to callouts to any emergency team if you are dead or dying or desperately trying to dig your family out of the rubble that a few moments ago was your home. For this reason everyone should have a disaster plan. Both at home, at work & in between. Every home should have a safe place of refuge. You have heard “seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor.” And, this is very good advice. Shelters can run the gamut of an interior closet, a special room in the basement that can quickly be run to, or a fully equipped fallout shelter. Which considering the multiple threats of the 21-century, isn’t really that far fetched a thing to have. Shelters can be “dual purpose” – the old tried and true “quick run to the fruit cellar” method. Where normally you use the room for other purposes, but it can quickly be converted into a shelter. Or it can be a dedicated location, equipped with food, backup power, and communications capabilities – the whole nine yards Some questions you should ask yourselves in planning are: What is the safest, most structurally sound place I have for a shelter? For instance, you don’t want it where the roof or walls will collapse on you. You don’t want it in a room where the garden tools – pitchforks, saws, and other blades will slice you to ribbons if the winds get into the building. You don’t want the water heater too close to your shelter due to the scalding danger it provides should it get knocked over. Do you want a multi-hazard shelter? One that helps protect from Mother Nature and man-made threats – be it nuclear, terrorist or hazmat incidents? Or simply a place of last resort when the unthinkable happens? Do you have a stockpile of emergency supplies? FEMA recommends a three-day supply of food and water – one gallon per person per day and food that will not spoil. One change of clothing and footwear per person One blanket or sleeping bag per person A first aid kit that includes your family’s prescription medications. Emergency tools including a battery-powered radio, flashlight and plenty of extra batteries. An extra set of car keys and a credit card, cash or traveler’s checks. Sanitation supplies. Special items for infant, elderly or disabled family members. An extra pair of glasses. Keep important family documents in a waterproof container. And, though never listed, I’ll add keep a helmet – bicycle, hardhat or football, to protect your head from injuries. A simple disaster plan is available at: http://www.impactalabama.com/docs/Your_Family_Disaster_Plan.doc http://www.impactalabama.com/docs/Your_Family_Disaster_Plan.pdf To go a step further, I recommend IS22 “Are You Ready”, which is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. IS22 “Are You Ready” is available at http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/ The old 1960’s (once required high school reading) Civil Defense book “SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival” recommended a 21-day emergency supply. This is probably a more realistic goal, in that in anything other than an isolated neighborhood emergency, it is very likely that it would take in excess of 72 hours for the infrastructure to return to normal & for you to be back “on the grid”. Katrina, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 and the April 27 tornado outbreak all are good examples. SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival is available at http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-Personal_and_Family_Survival.html Post disaster recovery guidance is also vital. For these, as I outlined in last month’s newsletter, I recommend: http://www.theredguidetorecovery.com/RedGuide_Quick_Start_Guide_2012.pdf http://www.theredguidetorecovery.com/TRG_Condensed-11-30-11.pdf Also, though I never see this mentioned in preparedness manuals, a basic knowledge of survival – obtaining/creating shelter, fire, purifying water and obtaining food are good idea. An example as to why this is important is the Japanese disaster. News media referred to this as the “dual disaster” – an earthquake and a tsunami. They were wrong. It was a triple disaster. For after the two headline events, the temperature then dropped to freezing, and it snowed on survivors struggling with neither shelter nor heat. How many survivors died of hypothermia? How many wouldn’t have died if they had had basic survival knowledge of how to throw a simple debris shelter together on the fly? Good resources for this information are Cody Lundin’s Books on survival and preparedness: “98.6 Degrees: The Art of Keeping Your Ass Alive“ and “When All Hell Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need to Survive When Disaster Strikes”. Les Stroud’s Book “Survive!” also is very worthwhile reading. At work, theoretically every employer should have an Emergency Action Plan. Most do. Some actually do know where the dusty thing is (maybe). I worked for years at an unnamed major department store. Their plan basically was “count down the registers, since the tornado will patiently wait for you to finish doing so & then move everyone to the center of the building so the roof can collapse on you.” And, originally that centralized location was also where they displayed the butcher knives and other cutlery. I did point out these flaws out & was assured that “our experts say this is the safest plan”. So I made my own secret plan – hunker down in the restroom. I figured I might as well be near the Throne, for I would most certainly be in prayer. At my present place of employment basically MARK is the emergency action plan. And, quit saying “God help them all”. I can hear you, you know. I keep them aware as to the situation & try to coach as where to seek shelter. And, I always have a safe place for Mark in mind. If you are outside remember: You can’t outrun a tornado in Alabama. You shouldn’t be running towards a tornado. After all, you might actually catch it. Then what? If you are caught with nowhere to run, get out of the car & lie flat in a ditch or culvert. Alabama has High Precipitation Supercells. So if the ditch or culvert begins flooding, and a tornado is approaching you also, you have a problem. You may have to resort to Great-Grandma’s solution. My Mom’s Grandmom said “grab hold of a small bush and hold on for dear life. A pine tree may get blown away, but the bushes almost never do.” And, those old “Grannies” knew what to do when “a cyclone is in that cloud”. Always stay aware of potential dangers and what to do about it. This includes disasters both great and small. It’s just an extension of being “street smart”. Oh, do you have a Get Home Kit? A “Get Home Kit” is a collection on items you keep in your car to help you get home in case of an emergency, remembering that emergencies come is all shapes and sizes. A kit can be made containing: An air compressor Fix-a-flat Tool Kit Battery terminal cleaning kit. (I pack the silver one that looks like a giant suppository). Jumper Cables Flares or reflective triangles A reflective vest and/or rain poncho Fleece blanket Extra glasses Water (for you) Antifreeze (for the car) A charged cellphone A GPS. This covers everything from mechanical breakdowns to having to abandon the car and hike into your neighborhood, should the roads become impassable, or landmarks left unrecognizable. Remembering that we spend over a third of our lives AWAY from home, this idea is a practical one. Finally, my preparedness philosophy is as follows: I believe that we should be a like Noah, (especially since we work for NOAA), and, be in a state of preparedness. But, then after having prepared, we should go have some fun and live life. Not be nutty or weird, but just knowledgeable and prepared. We can’t prevent disasters from happening. But, we can help reduce the impact they have on our little corner of the world. And, once we have secured our loved ones, then we can help others in need also. “A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.” – Proverbs 22:3 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac February is named “Februa”, the Latin word signifying the festivals of purification celebrated in Ancient Rome during this month. February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January. Also, February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so now only Leap Year has 29 days. In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month. Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more. There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15. Ground Hog Day is on February 2 & believers will watch that flea bitten danged old Yankee Punxsutawney Phil and (if he hasn’t gone to the Great Burrow In The Sky), True Southern Gentleman Birmingham Bill, to see if they see their shadows. If so, prepare for six more weeks of winter. How did we come up with Groundhog Day anyway? It is said by one theory that the first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. 1000 years ago when the world used the Julian calendar, Spring Equinox fell on March 16, which is exactly six weeks after February 2. So, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. But, if he didn’t, there would be only 42 more days of winter left instead. Get the calculator out and you will find that 42 days equals six weeks, so Groundhog Day may have started out as a practical joke. The modern 21 Century version blurs this into saying that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and fails to see its shadow, winter will soon end. If not, it will return into its burrow, and the winter will continue for 6 more weeks. It is believed that the Germans in Pennsylvania brought Groundhog Day with them. Morgantown, Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris’ diary entry for Feb. 4, 1841 states “Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.” So, how accurate is the little goomer? Well, Groundhog Day believers claim a 75% to 90% accuracy rate. The National Climatic Data Center, on the other hand, says it’s more like 39%. But, you know how Heathens can be. If the NCDC is right, maybe they can still use the critter anyway, by flipping the theory around, so if he predicts warmth, you go with winter & vice versa. I think this is called “Inverse Forecasting”. In the evening sky Venus is shining bright, greeting a winter evening alit with bright stars. With Orion the Hunter overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky. February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane. Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness. February’s Full Moon is “Cold Moon” in Native American folklore. ………………………………………………………………………………………. This month’s meeting will be on February 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Vice-President ALERT www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/