February 2008 Newsletter

ALERT NEWSLETTER — February 2008 “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ Vol. 1 No. 8 Hi Everyone & Happy Ground Hog Day! Whether you are a believer or not, if there are any Groundhogs around Birmingham, (and there are, for Teresa and I saw one once ambling about on Shades Mountain while we were eating at the Tip Top Cafe on Shades Crest), he, she or it definitely saw it’s shadow today. So restock up on the bread and milk, Winter is here to stay. How did we come up with Groundhog Day anyway? It is said by one theory that the first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. 1000 years ago when the world used the Julian Calendar, Spring Equinox fell on March 16, which is exactly six weeks after February 2. So, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. But, if he didn’t, there would be only 42 more days of winter left instead. Get the calculator out and you will find that 42 days equals six weeks, so Groundhog Day may have started out as a practical joke. The modern 21 Century version blurs this into saying that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and fails to see its shadow, winter will soon end. If not, it will return into its burrow, and the winter will continue for 6 more weeks. It is believed that the Germans in Pennsylvania brought Groundhog Day with them. Morgantown, Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris’ diary entry for Feb. 4, 1841 states “Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.” So, how accurate is the little goomer? Well, Groundhog Day believers claim a 75% to 90% accuracy rate. The National Climatic Data Center, on the other hand, says it’s more like 39%. But, you know how Heathens can be. If the NCDC is right, maybe they can still use the critter anyway, by flipping the theory around, so if he predicts warmth, you go with winter & vice versa. I think this is called “Inverse Forecasting”. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac February is named “Februa”, the Latin word signifying the festivals of purification celebrated in Ancient Rome during this month. February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January. Also, February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so now only Leap Year has 29 days. And, 2008 is a Leap Year. February is a cold month and more snow falls in February than in any other month. Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more. There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15. February’s precipitation pattern resembles January’s, except that the size and amount increases. Also there is a 47% increase in tornadoes over the low January average. Hurricane season is still far away, but quirky things do occasionally happen, like the wayward Tropical Storm that formed February 2, 1952 and crossed South Florida. Which is quirky not only for it’s timing, but, also since the seas are at their coldest time of the year. The night skies are bright with stars, with Orion the Hunter overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky. Greek Mythology tells that Orion was hunting a Bull, Taurus the Bull, to be exact & that he was stung by a scorpion and died. The gods honored Orion by placing him & his pooches in the Winter Sky and placing the scorpion that stung him as far away as possible, and so Scorpius the Scorpion is stuck in the Summer sky. February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane. February’s Full Moon is “Cold Moon” in Native American folklore. ………………………………………………………………………………………. This month’s meeting will be on February 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. We will be discussing and voting on amendments to the Bylaws. In accordance to the Bylaws, the proposed amendments were reviewed and passed by the Board of Directors in December. They were then read officially at the January meeting & posted via Email & on the Website, and now will come up for your vote. Looking ahead to the March meeting, we will be forming the Nominating Committee of two for the officer elections in May. The job consists of contacting either via phone, Email or in person ALERT members you think would be good choices for the eight officer positions of ALERT. The recommendations of the committee will be presented at the April meeting & the election, with floor nominations allowed, will occur in May. The new officers then assume their duties in July. Be thinking about this, for We will need your help. Mark / WD4NYL President ALERT www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/