ALERT NEWSLETTER – February 2026

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well as we continue ducking and weaving winter storms that early on may promise to snow “here”, but ends up snowing “there”, with storms behaving like a wayward a kick from a field goal kicker.

Winter weather forecasting is not easy, with competing forecast models, that may agree or disagree or flip-flop showing a blizzard in the morning run, triggering all the social media Prophets of Doom, and then showing nothing of importance in the afternoon run.

The models themselves, which are the best tools currently available, provide a limited glimpse of what “may be”. A forecast 7 days out is the limit of useful forecasting and show possible large-scale patterns and trends. 5 days out they can give a clearer picture of those large patterns, but cannot give detailed local forecasts. Only at 3 days out they can provide a detailed probable scenario, which may mean shifting the areas of concern north or south or change the expected intensity and timing of the storm and which means updating the forecast. If there are changes in the forecast it because it is being fine-tuned based on a clearer picture of the situation. It is not, as online “experts” chide, “waffling”.

Then there is the problem of the finicky nature of the storms themselves, which sometimes seem to have a mind of their own. Due to minute changes in the atmosphere, which may be barely detectable, or undetectable, they might strengthen when they shouldn’t, or weaken when they should. But, many more times than not, they do exactly what the models and rabbits foot say they should be doing.

The forecasters walk a tight rope. It is a juggling act between being underly cautious and then “boom” or overly cautious and then “bust”, making for a seldom win situation.

Between the wild hordes pillaging Publix, dummies like me hoping for that blizzard which brings a Hallmark Winter Wonderland (complete with snow angels, snowball fights, and happy, happy cruise ship karaoke music in the background) and those folk dreading the approach of the glaciers marking the New Ice Age, our forecasters take a beating, especially on antisocial media.

To our forecasters I say, just know that whether we get a snowman or a mudman, we are in your corner and, we appreciate what you do!

And take heart! Winter is half over!

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Exploding Trees

Social media, which is ALWAYS a reliable source of information, is spreading tales of trees exploding due to the extreme cold.

How true is this?

Before you start warily watching your loblolly pine thinking it might go off like a grenade, the truth is that during periods of extremely cold weather, a trees sap can freeze causing trees to crack and branches to split accompanied by a load shotgun like blast, but no, they don’t blow apart like a stick of dynamite.

Has this ever occurred in Alabama?

I don’t know if it is documented anywhere or not, but my Mom, who was a little girl living in Blount County in the early 1920’s, would tell me “Once it got so cold that the trees burst open. I saw it and was crying and Daddy said ‘don’t worry, Baby, those old trees will be ok’ and they did just fine in the spring”.

She also said her grandfather would say “we don’t get the snow; we just get the cold”. Which, more times than not has proven true.

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Falling Iguanas

Another item you may see on Social Media concerns Falling Iguana Alerts and Warnings.

In this case, social media, our ever-reliable source, is telling the truth.

In south Florida, south of a line stretching from Bradenton to Vero Beach, Florida has iguanas. Further south, south of a line from Port Charlotte to Palm Beach, Florida has a LOT of iguanas.

Iguanas are cold sensitive, but unlike other creatures, they don’t seem to seek shelter, they just hang around in trees being a lizard, that is until they can’t.

At temperatures:

Above 50° iguanas are safe and act normally
45 – 50° iguanas become sluggish
40 – 45° iguanas are cold stunned
32 – 40° iguanas become immobile, looking dead, but are very much alive
Below 32° iguanas can die

The problem you encounter with iguanas is that in cold weather you can be walking under a tree and one of these beasts just falls and plops on your head, which at the least will scare you silly, not to mention the unpleasantness of being hit by in the head with 8 to 20 pounds of iguana. Hence the alerts and warnings.

The Alerts and Warnings are not official alerts from the National Weather Service, rather Fish and Wildlife and local meteorologists issue them and the National Weather Service will remind people of the phenomenon / threat.

Generally, the beasts, other than conking you on the head, are harmless, unless you do as one dummy did, gathering a dozen or so “dead” iguanas in a bucket for dinner, getting in his truck and it being cold, he turned the heat on, which revived the beasts, which then swarmed and attacked him as he was driving, causing him to wreck his truck.

Though you may be tempted to do this should opportunity ever present, just don’t.

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Birmingham NWS Spring 2026 Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS Office will be offering several online Basic and Advanced Spotter Courses this Spring. These classes are FREE and allow individuals to complete these courses in the comfort of their own home or office.

By attending any course, which runs about 2 hours, an individual or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Spotters.

Unless you want to or need a refresher, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however, it is required that you attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course. These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, but you may use the built-in chat feature to ask questions.

To attend the Online Spotter Class:

1. Via the schedule below, register by clicking the link
   corresponding to the class you’d like to attend.
2. Select the ‘join webinar’ button on the registration page or
   in your confirmation email and follow the prompts.
3. Enjoy the class and ask questions.

To avoid being hurried, give yourself at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the class to complete the above process.

The current schedule is as follows:

Online:

Basic Class Tuesday, February 24 6:30 – 7:30PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4587991995671086933

Basic Class Thursday, March 5 6:30 – 7:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3063480640852737114
Basic Class Tuesday, March 10 1:00 – 2:00 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/958587675266284121

Basic Class Tuesday, March 17 6:00 – 7:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/419924834190934614

Advanced Class Thursday, March 24 6:30 – 7:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7773127647756869984

Send questions, comments, or inquires to gerald.satterwhite@noaa.gov

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS.

You can report directly to the NWS:

Via telephone at 205-664-3010 and pressing 2.
Online at https://www.weather.gov/bmx/submitstormreport
On Facebook at US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama | Calera AL | Facebook
On X at https://www.weather.gov/bmx/x.com/NWSBirmingham
Via Slack Chat.
Or via amateur radio relay on your county Skywarn or ARES Net.

Note that when reporting via social media, include #alwx on your social media report and a photo if possible.

This knowledge gained by these courses also help Skywarn Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but poorly described report, which without this knowledge could be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarn

A PDF of the September 20, 2018 Basic presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf

A PDF of the April 4, 2019 Advanced presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

The NWS in Norman, OK have numerous YouTube videos worth exploring at:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNorman/playlists

Other useful resources:

ABC33/40 Basic Storm Spotter Training
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_MzKUTfUKA

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 1 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOE69nsaKWE

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 2 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hT7gCCQB0

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 3 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKHsAxNzqEM
Also, mark your calendars as Severe Weather Awareness Week will occur February 2 – 6.

For more details go to: https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_swaw & Alabama Severe Weather Awareness Week

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Mark’s Almanac

February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it, is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.

February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.
February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year, which will next occur in 2024, has 29 days.

Ground Hog Day is on February 2 & believers will watch that flea bitten danged old Yankee Punxsutawney Phil and True Southern Gentleman Birmingham Bill, to see if they see their shadows.

Sand Mountain Sam in Albertville, “The Weather Predicting Possum”, may have a different take on this, since as he points out “groundhogs are rodents, while I am a marsupial”, so his opinion cannot be discounted.

So if they see their shadows, prepare for six more weeks of winter.

How did we come up with Groundhog Day anyway?

It is said by one theory that the first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. 1000 years ago when the world used the Julian calendar, Spring Equinox fell on March 16, which is exactly six weeks after February 2. So, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. But, if he didn’t, there would be only 42 more days of winter left instead. Get the calculator out and you will find that 42 days equals six weeks, so Groundhog Day may have started out as a practical joke.

The modern 21 Century version blurs this into saying that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and fails to see its shadow, winter will soon end. If not, it will return into its burrow, and the winter will continue for 6 more weeks.

It is believed that the Germans in Pennsylvania brought Groundhog Day with them.

Morgantown, Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris’ diary entry for Feb. 4, 1841 states “Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.”

So, how accurate is the little goomer?

Well, Groundhog Day believers claim a 75% to 90% accuracy rate. The National Climatic Data Center, on the other hand, says it’s more like 39%.

But you know how Heathens can be.

If the NCDC is right, maybe they can still use the critter anyway, by flipping the theory around, so if he predicts warmth, you go with winter & vice versa.

I think this is called “Inverse Forecasting”. Or it should be anyway.

In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.

Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.

There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.

North Atlantic Tropical activity is at a minimum. From 1851 to 2025 there has been only one Tropical Storm to occur, 70 MPH Tropical Storm #1, which affected Florida on February 2 & 3, 1952.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 39.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 48.8 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 10 hours 36 minutes on February 1 to 11 hours 27 minutes on February 28.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

February 1 Sunrise 6:43 AM Sunset 5:18 PM
February 14 Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 5:31 PM
February 28 Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 5:43 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.8 is in Capricornus, The Sea Goat.

Vulcan.

Every self-respecting Star Trekker and most every one else knows that Mr. Spock is from the planet Vulcan, located in the constellation Eridanus, The River.

What many don’t know is that during the mid to late 1800’a it was believed that a tenth planet had been discovered inside the orbit of Mercury and its proposed name was “Vulcan.”

Astronomers in the 1800s we’re puzzled about irregularities in Mercury’s orbit. One theory to explain this irregularity was the gravitational pull of another planet, in the same way that Neptune’s existence was predicted by irregularities in the orbit of Uranus.

There had been rumored observations of this object in the 17th century and on January 2, 1960 it was announced that amateur astronomer Urbain Le Verrier had observed the theoretical planet cross the face of the Sun on March 26, 1859.

Based on the observation the planet was 13 million miles from the Sun, with an orbital period of 19 days and 17 hours.

Others claimed to observe the planet crossing the Sun in 1862 and during an 1878 a total solar eclipse. Astronomers continued searching for Vulcan during total solar eclipses in 1883, 1887, 1889, 1900, 1901, 1905, and 1908, but nothing was seen, therefore since the existence could not be confirmed, they discarded the theory.

The observed irregularities in Mercury’s orbit were explained to be the result of the curvature of spacetime caused by the Sun’s gravitational field. A theory which was bolstered during a solar eclipse in 1919 during which photographs showed the curvature of spacetime was bending starlight around the Sun, now referred to as “gravitational lensing”.

Gravitational lensing is used today as astronomers observe light from distant objects being bent as the gravitational field of distant galaxies and galaxy clusters warp and bend the fabric of spacetime allowing even more distant objects be seen which would otherwise be too faint to be observed.

Though totally unrelated, think if it as a mirage allowing one to see beyond the horizon.

Mercury, magnitude -0.8 in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is lost in the glow of the Sun during the first week of the month.

He emerges into the western sky on February 8.

By midmonth he becomes visible around 5:47 PM CST, 11° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 1 hour and 17 minutes after the Sun at 6:47 PM CST.
He will reach his greatest separation from the Sun, or Greatest Eastern Elongation on February 19 and reach his highest point in the sky reaching a peak altitude of 16° above the horizon at sunset at magnitude -0.6 on February 20, 2026.

He will then retreat towards the Sun and will disappear into the glow of the Sun on February 24.

Venus, magnitude –3.9, in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Earth and her Moon, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in Leo, The Lion.

Mars, with his moons Phobos and Deimos, magnitude +1.0, in Capricornus, The Sea Goat, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +9.0, is in Cetus, The Sea Monster.

Jupiter, and his 97 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, magnitude -2.5, is in Gemini, The Twins,
is an early evening object and dominates the evening night sky.

At the beginning of the month, he will become visible around 5:33 PM CST, 28° above the eastern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will reach his highest point in the sky at10:11 PM CST, 79° above the southern horizon. He will continue to be observable until around 4:33 AM CST, when he sinks below 7° above the western horizon.

By midmonth he becomes accessible around 5:46 PM CST, 44° above the eastern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will reach his highest point in the sky at 9:10 PM CST, 79° above the southern horizon. He will continue to be observable until around 3:33 AM CST, when he sinks below 7° above the western horizon.

By the end of the month, he will become accessible around 5:57 PM CST, 57° above the eastern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will reach his highest point in the sky at 8:16, 79° above the southern horizon. He will continue to be observable until around 2:39 AM CST, when he sinks below 7° above the western horizon.

Saturn, magnitude +1.0, and his 274 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Piscis, The Fish, is an early evening object.

At the first of the month, he becomes visible at around 5:53 PM CST, 34° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 3 hours and 34 minutes after the Sun at 8:51 PM CST.

By midmonth he will become visible around 6:05 PM CST, 23° above your western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 2 hours and 33 minutes after the Sun at 8:03 PM CST.

At months end he becomes visible around 6:16 PM CST, 12° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 1 hours and 37 minutes after the Sun at 7:19 PM CST.

Uranus, magnitude +5.7, and his 29 moons and ring, in Taurus, The Bull, is an early evening object, receding into the evening twilight.

He becomes visible around 6:18 PM CST, at his highest altitude 75° above the southern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will continue to be observable until around 11:23 PM CST AM, when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.

Uranus will end his retrograde motion, ending his apparent westward movement through the constellations and return to more usual eastward motion instead. This retrograde motion is caused by the Earth’s own motion around the Sun. As the Earth circles the Sun, our perspective changes, and this causes the apparent positions of objects to move from side-to-side in the sky with a one-year period. This nodding motion is super-imposed on the planet’s long-term eastward motion through the constellations.

By midmonth he will become visible around 6:30 PM CST, at an altitude of 72° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades into darkness. He will continue to be observable until around 12:39 AM CST, when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.

At month’s end he becomes visible around 6:41 PM CST, at an altitude of 61° above the south-western horizon. He will continue to be observable until around 11:49 PM CST, when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.

Neptune, magnitude +7.8, and his 16 moons and ring, in Pisces, The Fish, is sinking low towards the south-western horizon.
At the first of the month, he becomes accessible via binoculars and telescopes at 6:18 PM CST, at an altitude of 31° above the south-western horizon as dusk fades into darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 3 hours and 42 minutes after the Sun at 8:59 PM CST.

By midmonth he will become visible around 6:26 PM CST, at an altitude of 23 above the western horizon, as dusk fades into darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 2 hours and 59 minutes after the Sun at 8:25 PM CST.

He will become lost in the glow of the Sun on February 21.

Pluto, the largest Dwarf Planet, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.6 in Capricornus, The Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes, The Herdsman.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team, shines faintly at magnitude +17.1 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris, the second largest Dwarf Planet, and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least seven additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 in Andromeda, The Chained Maiden.

50000 Quaoar, his two rings and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 between Gemini, The Twins and Orion, The Hunter.

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus, The Bull.

25088 Gonggong, the third largest Dwarf Planet, originally nicknamed Snow White by the discovery team, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Pegasus, The Winged Horse.

2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.0 in Eridanus, The River.

120347 Salacia, and her moon Actaea glows at magnitude 20.7 in Sextans, The Sextant. Salacia is considered a “borderline” Dwarf Planet. Some astronomers saying she “most certainly is a Dwarf Planet”, while others disagreeing based on her size, saying she is too small to have compressed into a fully solid body, to have been resurfaced, or to have collapsed into “hydrostatic equilibrium”, that is to assume spherical shape like a planet.

“Dwarf Planet Candidate” 2017 OF201, magnitude 23.2 is in the constellation Triangulum, the Triangle.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, an asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is currently 12,220,632,030 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 13 minutes and 23 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 48 years, 4 month and 17 days is 15,920,412,205 miles, or in Light Time, 23 hours, 44 minutes 23 Seconds from Earth as of 1:57 PM CST, January 22, 2026, sailing 38,027 miles per hour through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

Near Earth Object, asteroid 99942 Apophis, is expected to pass within 19,794 miles of the Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.

Apophis, magnitude +20.7, in Aquarius, The Waterbearer, is 140,159,775 miles or 1178 days from the Earth as of 2:08 PM CST, January 22, 2026.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which will pass though the Earth – Moon system on Wednesday, December 22, 2032, dimly glows at magnitude +30.4, in Libra, The Scales. It currently is 337,640,477 miles or 2631 days from Earth as of 2:01 PM CST January 22, 2026.

There are 1,493,524 known asteroids and 4,052 comets as of January 22, 2026 per NASA/JPL Solar Dynamics Website.

6,080 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January 15, 2026 per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive.

Full Moon will occur February 1 at 4:10 PM CST or 20:11 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore as the heaviest snows usually fall at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur February 9, at 6:43 AM CST or 12:43 UTC.

During a Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on February 10, when she will be 251,392 miles from Earth.

New Moon occurs February 17 at 6:03 AM CST or 12:03 UTC. The Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

An Annular Lunar Eclipse will occur February 17. An annular solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is too far away from the Earth to completely cover the Sun. This results in a ring of light around the darkened Moon. The Sun’s corona is not visible during an annular eclipse.

This eclipse will only be visible in Antarctica and the southern Indian Ocean.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur February 23 at 6:28 AM CST or 12:28 UTC.

During a Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on February 24, when she will be 229,989 miles from Earth.

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In December’s Newsletter I detailed the upcoming ham radio contests and state QSO parties for 2026

Those particularly catching my interest this month are:

February 7 10-10 International – Winter – USB
European Union DX Contest
British Columbia QSO Party
Minnesota QSO Party
Vermont QSO Party
February 9 ARRL School Roundup
February 14 Dutch PACC Contest
February 21 ARRL International DX – CW
South Carolina QSO Party
February 22 World Wide Argentine DX Contest
February 27 CQ 160 Meter Contest – LSB
February 28 UBA DX Contest – CW – Belgium

They are great chances to work DX galore and those elusive stations you may need for working all states and provinces.

For more details go to WA7BNM Contest Calendar: Home

BirmingHAMfest will be held Friday March 6 and Saturday March 7 at the Trussville Civic Center.

Doors open at 4:00 p.m. on Friday and close at 7:00 p.m. The hamfest will reopen at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday and close at 4:00 p.m. with the grand prize drawing. See: BirmingHAMfest

This month’s ALERT meeting will be at 7 PM, February 10 at the NWS Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport.

Mark Wells
ALERT Newsletter