ALERT NEWSLETTER – October 2024

Hi everyone and welcome to the October ALERT Newsletter.

As we look towards the cool clear weather of fall, our hearts and minds turn to our neighbors to the South and East as they deal with the destruction left by Hurricane Helene.

The degree of suffering and loss which we are witnessing is hard to comprehend and given that there are so many areas still cut off and so many missing, the losses will tragically continue to mount.

While we work with weather and have a fascination and grudging admiration of the power of nature, we absolutely loath the heartaches that these storms, whether hurricanes or tornadoes, cause.

The people of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas are in our thoughts and prayers,

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Birmingham NWS Fall 2024 Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS will be offering several online and in person Basic and Advanced Spotter Courses this fall. These classes are FREE and allow individuals to complete these courses in the comfort of their own home or office as well as in a traditional format.

By attending any course, which runs about 2 hours, an individual or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Spotters.

Unless you want to or are in need of a refresher, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however, it is required that you attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course. These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, but you may use the built-in chat feature to ask questions.

To attend the Online Spotter Class:

1. Via the schedule below, register by clicking the link
   corresponding to the class you’d like to attend.
2. Select the ‘join webinar’ button on the registration page or
   in your confirmation email and follow the prompts.
3. Enjoy the class and ask questions.

To avoid being hurried, give yourself at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the class to complete the above process.

The current schedule is as follows:

Online:

Basic Class Tuesday, October 8 at 1:00 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8100064120604805980

Basic Class Wednesday, October 9 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7351265915763805526

Basic Class Tuesday, October 15 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1731693872037890399

Advanced Class Tuesday, October 29, at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7434274645614412126

In Person:

Basic Class To Be Determined Sumpter County

Basic Class Tuesday, October 22 at 6:30 PM Millport Public Library
920 Black Street
Millport, AL *

Basic Class Thursday, October 24 at 6:00 PM Elmore County EMA Office
8917 Highway 231
Wetumpka, AL

Basic Class To Be Determined Fayette Civic Center
534 Temple Avenue North
Fayette, AL

Basic Class Thursday, November 7 at 6:00 PM Elmore County EMA Office
8917 Highway 231
Wetumpka, AL

• Please register HERE for head count.
  Thank you!

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS, either directly via 205-664-3010 and pressing 2, online at https://www.weather.gov/bmx/submitstormreport
or via chat or amateur radio. This knowledge helps Skywarn Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but poorly described report, which without this knowledge would be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarn

A PDF of the September 20, 2018 Basic presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf

A PDF of the April 4, 2019 Advanced presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

The NWS in Norman, OK have numerous YouTube videos worth exploring at:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNorman/playlists

Other useful resources:

ABC33/40 Basic Storm Spotter Training
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_MzKUTfUKA

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 1 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOE69nsaKWE

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 2 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hT7gCCQB0

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 3 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKHsAxNzqEM

For information on online training visit:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

Note this online course IS NOT intended to replace the courses offered by the NWS offices. The local meteorologists will know factors and variations in the area microclimate that may need to be considered in assessing the observed phenomena. Consider this online course as supplemental information.

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Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaves, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide.

Florida, due to its low latitude, becomes especially vulnerable to hurricanes. Since 1851, Florida has endured 31 October hurricane landfalls, nearly triple the next highest state — Louisiana, which has had eight. Also, about 60 percent of all U.S. hurricanes that made landfall after September 26 have done so in Florida. One factor being the cold fronts of Fall penetrating the Gulf and then deflecting storms towards the West coast of Florida.

Luckily after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

From 1851 – 2023 there have been 366 Tropical Storms and 219 hurricanes, 60 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable October hurricanes are:

The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as Huracán San Calixto, the Great Hurricane of the Antilles, and the 1780 Disaster, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane, which killed between 20,000 to 22, 000 people in the Lesser Antilles as it passed through from October 10 – 16, 1780. It is possible that it had winds in excess of 200 MPH when it reached Barbados.

Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolinas in 1954. Weather satellite did not yet exist, and the Hurricane Hunters were unable to observe the core of the storm until it neared land on October 15. Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with a Category 4 intensity of 130 mph.

Hurricane Wilma still holds the record as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. In 24 hours, Wilma went from a Category 1 storm on October 18 to a Category 5 storm with 185 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. She weakened to Category 4 and struck the Yucatan, then restrengthened and struck Cape Romano Florida as a Category 3 storm on October 24, 2005.

Hurricane Mitch became a Category 1 hurricane on October 24, 1998, and within 48 hours grew to Category 5 intensity, and though he weakened to Category 1 before making landfall, he became the second deadliest hurricane on record killing over 11,000, with nearly that number missing in Central America due to intense rainfall and mudslides. He would eventually reach the United States making landfall near Naples Florida on November 5.

Hurricane Michael formed near the Yucatan Peninsula on October 7, 2018, and in 72 hours grew from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 hurricane striking struck Mexico Beach Florida.

Beware of October hurricanes, for as Wilma, Mitch and Michael have demonstrated, they can experience explosive growth.

October Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers, they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 53.2 degrees at the beginning of the month to 42.3 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 11 hours 50 minutes on October 1 to 10 hours 51 minutes on October 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

October 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 6:32 PM
October 15 Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 6:14 PM
October 31 Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 5:56 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Virgo, The Virgin.

Mercury, magnitude -1.7 is in Virgo, The Virgin, is hidden in the glow of the Sun.

Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Virgo, The Virgin, has emerged into. the evening sky and will steadily rise in the western sky as the weeks pass, eventually dominating the Winter skies.

At the first of the month, she will become visible at around 6:46 PM CDT, 12° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting 1 hour and 23 minutes after the Sun at 7:53 PM CDT.

At midmonth she will become visible at around 6:28 PM CDT, 14° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting 1 hour and 37 minutes after the Sun at 7:49 PM CDT.

At month’s end she will become visible at around 6:11 PM CDT, 16° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting 2 hours and 00 minutes after the Sun at 7:55 PM CDT.

Earth, magnitude -4.0 as viewed from the Sun, and her Moon is in the Pisces, The Fish.

Mars, magnitude +0.5, with his Moons Phobos and Deimos in Gemini, The Twins, is an early morning object.

At the first of the month, he rises at midnight CDT and reaches an altitude of 73° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:09 AM CDT.

At midmonth he rises at 11:35 PM CDT and reaches an altitude of 78° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:21 AM CDT.

At months end he rises at Midnight and reaches an altitude of 78° above the southern horizon at 6:08 AM, before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:36 AM CDT.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.9, is in Sagittarius, The Archer.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.5, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, in Taurus, The Bull, dominates the early morning sky.

At the first of the month, he rises at 11:03 PM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 78° above the southern horizon at 5:25 AM, before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:24 AM CDT.

By midmonth he rises at 10:09 PM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 78° above the southern horizon at 4:30 AM before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:34 AM CDT.

At months end he rises at 9:03 PM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 78° above the southern horizon at 3:24 AM before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 6:47 AM CDT.

Saturn, magnitude +0.7, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is an evening object.

At the first of the month, he becomes visible around 7:01 PM CDT 18° above the south-eastern horizon. He will reach its highest point in the sky at 11:06 PM CDT, 43° above the southern horizon. He will be lost to dawn twilight around 3:48 AM CDT, 13° above the western horizon.

By midmonth he becomes visible around 6:53 PM CDT at an altitude of 25° above the south- eastern horizon. He will reach his highest altitude of 47° above the southern horizon around 10:08 PM CDT. He fades into the dawn around 2:49 AM CDT at 10° above the western horizon.

At month’s end he becomes visible around 6:37 PM CDT at an altitude of 33° above the south-eastern horizon. He will reach his highest altitude of 47° above the southern horizon around 9:02 PM CDT. He will continue to be observable until around 1:43 AM CDT, when he sinks below 10° above your western horizon.

Uranus, magnitude +5.7, and his 27 moons and ring, in Taurus, The Bull, is a morning object/

At the first of the month, he rises at 10:35 PM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 76 ° above the southern horizon at 3:42 AM CDT, before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 5:40 AM CDT.

By midmonth he becomes accessible around 9:39 PM CDT, when he reaches an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon. he will then reach his highest point in the sky at 2:45 AM, 75° above the southern horizon. He will be lost to dawn twilight around 5:60 AM, 46° above the western horizon.

At months end he becomes accessible around 8:34 PM CDT, when it reaches an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon. It will then reach its highest point in the sky at 1:40 AM CDT, 75° above the southern horizon. He will be lost to dawn twilight around 6:02 AM CDT, 40° above the south-western horizon.

Neptune, magnitude 7.7, and his 14 moons and ring, is in Pisces, The Fish, is visible using a telescope in the evening sky.

At the first of the month, he becomes accessible at 7:48 PM CDT at an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon and reaches an altitude of 54° above the southern horizon at 11:55 PM CDT and fades into the dawn twilight around 4:02 AM CDT, 31° above the western horizon.

By midmonth he becomes accessible at 7:11 PM CDT at an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon and reaches an altitude of 54° above the southern horizon at 10:59 PM CDT. He will become inaccessible at around 3:06 AM CDT when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.

At months end he becomes accessible, at 6:55 PM CDT at an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon and reaches an altitude of 54° above the southern horizon at 9:55 PM CDT and fades into the dawn twilight around 5:17 AM CDT, 32° above the southern horizon. He will become inaccessible at around 2:01 PM CDT when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.5 in Capricornus, The Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.4 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team, shines faintly at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.6 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least six additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 in Hydra, the Water Snake.
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50000 Quaoar, and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Pisces, The Fish.

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus, The Bull.

225088 Gonggong, originally nicknamed Snow White by the discovery team, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Pisces, The Fish.

2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.0 in Eridanus, The River.

120347 Salacia, and her moon Actaea glows at magnitude 20.7 in Auriga, The Charioteer. Salacia is considered a “borderline” Dwarf Planet. Some astronomers saying she “most certainly is a Dwarf Planet”, while others disagreeing based on her size, saying she is too small to have compressed into a fully solid body, to have been resurfaced, or to have collapsed into “hydrostatic equilibrium”, that is to assume spherical shape like a planet.

This dark world lies beyond the orbit of Neptune, orbiting 4,164,420,166 miles from the Sun.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, an asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is currently 12,349,780 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 24 minutes and 56 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 46 years, 12 months and +25 days is 15,343,706,176 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 52 minutes 48 Seconds from Earth as of 2:39 PM, September 29, 2024, sailing 38,027 miles per hour through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.
Voyager – Mission Status (nasa.gov) & Voyager 1 | TheSkyLive

There are 1,405,019 known asteroids and 3,967 comets as of September 29, 2024 per NASA/JPL Solar Dynamics Website JPL Solar System Dynamics (nasa.gov).

5,759 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 17, 2024, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

New Moon will occur at 1:50 PM CDT or 18:50 UTC on October 2. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

This New Moon occurs near Apogee, or the Moon’s farthest point from the Earth, so this will be a Micromoon. A Micromoon is the opposite of a Supermoon. Where a Supermoon appears slightly larger than normal, a Micromoon appears smaller.

An Annular Solar Eclipse will occur on October 2. An annular solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is too far away from the Earth to completely cover the Sun. This results in a ring of light around the darkened Moon. The Sun’s corona is not visible during an annular eclipse.

The eclipse path will begin in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America and move across parts of southern Chile and Argentina. A partial eclipse will be visible throughout most of southern South America.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on October 2, when she will be 252,598 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur October 10 at 1:56 PM or 18:56 UTC.

During the Quarter Moon, the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 7. This minor shower, which produces only 10 meteors per hour, is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

The last quarter moon will be visible in the early morning but shouldn’t interfere too much. Best viewing will be in the early evening from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Draco, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee or her closest approach to Earth on October 16, when she will be 221,937 miles from Earth.

October’s Full Moon will occur October 17. The Moon will be directly opposite the Earth from the Sun and will be fully illuminated as seen from Earth. This phase occurs at 6:27 AM or 11:27 UTC. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as the Full Hunters Moon because at this time of year the leaves are falling, and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

This is the second of four Supermoons for 2024. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon, the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. The Orionids is an average shower producing up to 20 meteors per hour at its peak This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet.

The first quarter moon may block some of the dim meteors in the evening, but it will set shortly after midnight. This will leave dark skies for what could be a good morning show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Orion, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur October 24 at 3:05 AM CDT or 8:05 UTC.

During a Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on October 29, when she will be 252,379 miles from Earth.

Last month I mentioned Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS. The comet has been putting on a good display in the morning skies just before sunset.

Early October the comet will be too close to the Sun to be easily visible. Prime time will be in the second and third weeks of October as the comet enters the evening sky and moves upward in the west-southwest sky.

Assuming all goes well, and comets can very unpredictable, beginning around October 10 the comet should be visible a over the western horizon after sunset. Each day he will appear higher and higher in night sky and easier to spot.

This comet may be bright enough to see even in the light polluted skies of the city. There is even the possibility it could be visible during daylight hours.

He may have company also.

Astronomers are watching a comet discovered just a few days ago. This comet, which is so new that it has no name other than the designation “A11bP7I,” appears to be a relatively large sungrazer on course to become a bright naked-eye object in late October.

Experts have noted a similarity between the orbits of A11bP7I and Great Comet Ikeya-Seki which appeared in 1965. Ikeya-Seki became so bright when it passed by the sun that it was visible during the day at magnitude -10. Japanese observers were able to observe it at noon.

This comet is so new that the timing and dates are still being determined.

Do know that comets are finicky beasts. Both comets could be spectacular, or one or both could fizzle, as comets are prone to do.

But, if possible, I would try to see them.

I recommend going to a less light polluted environment.

Let your eyes adjust to the dark for several minutes, 30 minutes is best. If you look slightly above or to the sides of the comet instead of keeping it in the center of your vision, it will appear brighter.

This is called the “averted vision”.

This technique helps overcome a quirk in the human eye. The center of our eyes have virtually no rods, the cells that detect dim light in black and white. This situation results in a decrease in visual sensitivity in central vision at night.

The density of the rod cells usually reaches a maximum around 20 degrees off the center of vision, so as you look away, dim objects suddenly brighten.

So, try this trick, and as mentioned last month, use binoculars, as their great light gathering ability are perfect for comets.

While you are looking for the comets, take a peek at the rich star clouds of the Milky Way in Cygnus as she crosses the zenith. These will appear as a ghostly band overhead in the hour after nightfall is complete. The Milky Way now rises straight up from the southwest horizon, passes overhead, and runs straight down to the northeast.

Later at midnight, Orion the Hunter and the stars of winter rise over the eastern horizon, reminding us to enjoy the mild weather while it is here, for this season, as all seasons, is but a fleeting moment in the never-ending waltz of time.

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This month’s meeting will be on October 8 at 7 PM at the NWS Forecast Office in Calera.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter