ALERT NEWSLETTER – May 2024

 Hi everyone, I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these cool spring days.

Our May 14 ALERT meeting will feature our annual elections.

Positions to be decided are President, Vice President, Treasurer/Membership, Secretary and NWS Liaison/K4NWS Station Trustee.

Those recommended by the Nominating Committee and any nominations from the floor (made by a current ALERT Operational Member) and any volunteers for those positions will be voted on by secret ballot, or acclamation if no other nominations exist from the floor.

If you are a paid-up Operational Member or Supporting Member, who is a member interested in Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license, you may vote in the 2024-2025 ALERT leadership elections.

The positions of Public Information Officer and the non-permanent 1 year Board of Director positions will be appointed by the incoming President. The 2 year Board position was chosen last year. If a Board position we’re to be vacated during the year, the President would appoint a member to serve the remainder of the term, per ARTICLE VI, Section 2, of the ALERT Bylaws & Constitution.

The Editor of the Newsletter isn’t mentioned in the Bylaws and is merely a voluntary “labor of love” of which I have been overseeing since 2007. And, unless there is a volunteer clawing at the doors to take over, I will probably (pending Presidential approval) continue onward.

The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting.

July is also when ALERT dues are due. Remember, if you wish to respond to ALERT callouts or serve as an officer you MUST be current with your dues.

May your May be a happy one!

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Troublesome 2024 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2024 tropical season, which runs from June 1 to November.

EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2024 (colostate.edu)

Their forecast predicts an “extremely active” season with 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect 11 to become hurricanes and 5 to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

There is 62% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States. The average from 1880 – 2020 is 43%.

There is 34% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the US East coast including the Florida Peninsula. The average from 1880 – 2020 is 21%.

There is 42% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville Texas. The average from 1880 – 2020 is 27%.

AccuWeather’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane outlook also calls for an “well above average” or “explosive”, season with 20 – 25 named storms. Of those storms, 8 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, 4 to 7 being major hurricanes and 4 to 6 hurricanes are likely to hit the United States.

Explosive Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2024, AccuWeather experts warn

The UK Tropical Storm Risk,com outlook calls for a “hyper-active” season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 “intense” hurricanes, with the US being visited by 7 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes, intensity unpredictable.

Click to access TSRATLForecastApril2024.pdf

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth most active season on record with 20 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes and of those 7, 3 becoming major hurricanes.

Of those 20, only four directly impacted the US

Hurricane Idalia struck Florida as a Category 3 hurricane in late August. Tropical Storm Harold drenched southern Texas. Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina. A much weakened Lee swiped the New England coast as a tropical rainstorm before making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. Earlier Lee made his name as the strongest storm of the season, a 165 MPH Category 5 storm.

This year La Niña conditions are forecast to return this summer around the peak of hurricane season, During La Niña wind shear dies down, which helps promote tropical activity. Add to this
sea-surface temperatures that are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Atlantic, and you have the prime ingredients for an exceptionally active year.

The 2024 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafeal, Sara, Tony, Valerie & William.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2030. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. Which is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms of the past.

If so many storms occur that the 2024 list is depleted, the storm names will revert to the World Meteorological Organization supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook in May.

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Rescue From Death Valley

On April 6, 2024, Amateur Radio Operator Caleb Gustwiller, KD8TGB, in Wauseon Ohio, after unsuccessfully attempting to contact a DX station, turned off his equipment around 5 PM to do “something else.”

At 6:30 PM he turned the equipment back on to “play some more” and he heard KO6DZX calling “Mayday, we are stuck in Death Valley and need help”.

He attempted to contact him and succeeded, but the 10 meter band changed, and the station faded away. He called a friend and had him try to contact him, with little success.

He then went on Facebook to the Parks On The Air group to see if anyone could tune in and hear the station. “Can anyone hear KO6DZX on 28.430? Saying Mayday, but we are losing them.”

A member of the group called the National Park Service in Death Valley California, and Park Rangers indicated that they might know his location and would send help as soon as they could.

Recent floods had washed out many of the roads and many sites were closed and impassable.

The Park Rangers successfully located the operator, KO6DZX, Moritz Wacker, who had had vehicle trouble and was stranded, and he was rescued safely.

Moritz had been a ham for 9 days.

So, ham radio saved a person’s day, if not his life.

Think of the odds though.

The receiving operator decided to turn the radio back on, at just the right time, on just the right frequency on a band that usually fades at sunset and heard him from 1,700 miles away.

What if he decided to watch Family Feud instead of returning to the radio?
What if he had got on 30 minutes later and found the band had closed?
What if he had moved off that completely random frequency or had switched to another band?
What if he had thought someone was just clowning around?
Thankfully he did none of those things and knew that ANY distress call HAS to be treated as legitimate. (And I have heard some bogus ones through the years)

Sounds like someone was looking after KO6DZX.

KO6DZX holds a Technician class license.

Let’s not forget that Technicians have HF privileges also.

The original purpose of the Technician license, as created in 1951, was to encourage and provide access for experimenters in the 220 MHZ and above bands. It was for hams who might not have any interest in long distance HF communications, but wished to experiment with repeaters, moon bounce and other modes.

In the early 1960’s there were two entry level ham licenses, the Novice and the Technician.

The Novice License was for “communicators” and was good for one year and later two years and was nonrenewable. You had two years to upgrade to General, or you lost your license and could not apply again. I remember as a novice knowing that the “clock was ticking” and breathing a sigh of relief in 1978 when I upgraded.
Later that year the FCC changed the rules, and the Novice license became renewable, a decision which some decried as “the death knell of Amateur Radio”, since “no one would ever bother upgrading now”.

The Technician License was for ”experimenters” – people with technical interests in technical things which is why it was called “Technician”.

Technicians had no HF privileges, nor access to 6 or 2 Meters, while Novices had HF CW and 2 Meter voice privileges.

If you wanted to both “communicate” and “experiment”, you had to have both licenses. You could hold both a Novice and Technician License at the same time, each with a different callsign. You would use the appropriate callsign depending on whether you were “communicating” or “experimenting”.

In the process of time and the invention of “incentive licensing” in 1967, there were now six classes of Licenses – Novice, Technician, Conditional, General, Advanced and Extra.

The Conditional Class was a test given by two ham “proctors” to those with “hardship cases”.
This was for those who lived 75 miles or beyond from the nearest FCC office, as tests we’re normally given at the Field Office or as with the Atlanta Field Office, occasionally the FCC staff would travel to a major city and hold testing sessions for ham and commercial licenses.

In Birmingham, the FCC would come sometime in March and sometime in August. The testing dates were not published until a week or so before the test. So, you either studied too early and started forgetting everything, or studied too late and crammed until your brain overheated.

The only sure date was the Birminghamfest, which in those days was held in May at the BJCC, and up until a few years ago was always a Saturday & Sunday Affair, as the Huntsville Hamfest is today.

As other major adjustments came over the years, Novices lost voice privileges, Technicians gained 6 and 2 Meters, and the Conditional Class was grandfathered into General Class. In 1975 Technicians gained HF Novice privileges. Technician 10 Meter voice access came in 1987, as did Novice voice privileges on 222 – 225 MHz and 1.270 – 1.295 GHz bands as is today, in the so called “Novice Enhancement” by the FCC.

In 1991 the FCC adopted the No-Code Technician, which had no Novice privileges. Existing Technicians and new ones that passed the 5 WPM CW test became Technician Pluses and had HF Novice privileges.

On April 15, 2000, after the FCC rearranged things yet again, new Novice and Advanced licenses were no longer issued, though existing licenses could still be renewed and in 2007, since all code requirements we’re dropped, No Code Technicians we’re granted Novice HF access, and all Technicians, No Code and Pluses we’re now Technicians.

So, if you are holding a Technician Class license you have access to:

80 Meters – 3.525 – 3.600 MHz – CW only (which is also the entire General & Advanced CW band)

40 Meters – 7.025 – 7.125 MHz – CW only (which is also the entire General & Advanced CW band)

15 Meters – 21.025 – 21.200 MHz – CW only (which is also the entire General & Advanced CW band)

10 Meters – 28.000 – 28.300 MHz – CW, RTTY & Data, including FT8, 200 watts PEP maximum (which is also the entire General & Advanced CW band)

10 Meters – 28.300 – 28.500 MHz – CW & Phone, 200 PEP watts maximum, which is the heart of the 10 Meter band and is shared with General, Advanced and Amateur Extra class licensees.

All frequencies above 50 MHZ.

The reason I’ve stressed “which is also the entire General & Advanced CW band” is that these frequencies are not just little itty bitty slivers, slices or “windows” of the HF bands, as was the case when I started in 1977, but they are “the whole tamale” of non-voice CW frequencies available in the 80, 40, 15 & 10 Meter bands, same as if you held the General or Advanced Class license. The only CW frequencies not available to Technicians in these bands are the bottom 25 kHz reserved for the Amateur Extra class licensees on 80, 40 & 15 Meters.

The only advantage General and Advanced Classes have on these shared frequencies is that they can run RTTY and digital signals such as FT8.

So, Technician HF privileges are a much bigger deal than is advertised or that most even think.

Color_Band_Chart_Image.jpg (989×768) (arrl.org)

CW did not fade away after the code requirement was dropped, but is more popular now than ever before.

One reason being that people have realized the fact that watt for watt, a CW signal has greater range than a SSB signal. With an SSB signal your radiated power is spread wider across the band than a CW signal. A SSB signal covers 3 kHz or 3,000 Hz vs 150 Hz for a CW signal. A CW signal is laser focused like a Maglite focuses a beam of light and so, using this comparison, is “brighter” than a SSB signal.

Also, a CW signal is at 100% power 100% of the time, whereas SSB signals only briefly reach full power on voice peaks. A CW signal squeezes every available watt into the ether.

So, a CW signal will reach farther and penetrate noise better than a voice signal. As an example, many times I have heard stations “tuning up” using a CW carrier and blasting my speaker and then they switched to voice and there was only the faintest wisp of “CQ CQ”.

So, to all Technicians I say, right now you can have the ability to “work the world” at your fingertips. So why not give it a try?

There are many online resources to help you learn CW. And, if I could learn it, being a complete dullard, you can certainly do so, and probably learn it quicker than I did. Just start slow as you need, and speed will follow. I started at 3 WPM and eventually got to 35 WPM by ear. I was younger then and my ears were not corroded as they are now, thanks to Father Time & a little too much LOUD Rock and Roll, so I prefer 13 to 18 WPM.

Plus, as I tell folk, with high speed CW, if the cat sneezes or the dog blasts gas, you miss half of the exchange. So, for me “slow is the way to go.”

Or if you want to try voice, throw up a 17 – 18 foot dipole antenna between two trees, get 10 a meter rig or a full feature HF rig, from 4 to 100 watts, and when the sunspots cooperate, and we are currently at the solar maximum of the 11 year sunspot cycle, you can “work the world”.

10 Meter Technician Class Dipole – Build a Technician Class Dipole for 10 Meters! (hamuniverse.com)

You have nothing to lose, and everything to gain! So, as someone said, “c’mon man”, give it a try!

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2023 there have been 27 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Pisces, The Fish.

Mercury, magnitude +4.8 in Pisces, The Fish, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Pisces, The Fish, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Earth, and her Moon, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Libra, The Scales.

Mars, with his moons Phobos and Deimos magnitude +1.1, in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is emerging into the predawn sky.

At the first of the month, he rises at 4:09 AM, 1 hour and 47 minutes before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 13° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 05:17.

He will reach his closest distance from the Sun or “Perihelion”, on May 8, 2024.

At midmonth he rises at 3:42 AM, 2 hours and 2 minutes before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 16° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 05:04.

By months end he rises at 3:11 AM, 2 hours and 24 minutes before the Sun and reachies an altitude of 20° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 04:55.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.7 is in Sagittarius The Archer.

Jupiter, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring magnitude –2.0, in Aries, became lost in the glow of the Sun on April 26th is hidden in the glow of the Sun.

He will pass behind the Sun, or be in “Conjunction” on May 18.

Saturn, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, magnitude +1.1, in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is visible in the dawn sky.

At the first of the month, he rises at 3:35 AM, 2 hours and 21 minutes before the Sun, and reaches an altitude of 20° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 05:19.

By midmonth he rises at 2:43 AM, 3 hours and 1 minute before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 27° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 05:05.

At months end he rises at 1:43 AM, 3 hours and 52 minutes before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 36° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 04:56.

Uranus, and his 28 moons and ring, magnitude +5.9 in Aries, The Ram, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

He will pass behind the Sun, or be in “conjunction”, on May 13.

Neptune, and his 16 moons and ring, magnitude 7.8 in Pisces, The Fish, is lost in the glow of the Sun for most of the month, until finally emerging into the predawn sky on May 24. rising at 2:36, 3 hours and 2 minutes before the Sun and reaching an altitude of 22° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 04:30.

I’ll note that except for the Earth, every planet is either lost in the glow of the Sun, or just emerging into the predawn sky. This means that the solar system is currently lopsided with every planet on one side of the Sun, except for little old Earth, sitting alone on the opposite side.

There is no particular significance to this, but I find it an interesting configuration.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.5 in Capricorn, The Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.3 in Bootes, The Herdsman.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team, shines faintly at magnitude +17.1 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least six additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Sextans, The Sextant.

50000 Quaoar, and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Scutum, The Shield.

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus, The Bull.

225088 Gonggong, originally nicknamed Snow White by the discovery team, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius, The Water Bearer.

2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.0 in Eridanus, The River.

120347 Salacia, and her moon Actaea glows at magnitude 20.7 in Andromeda, The Chained Woman. Salacia is considered a “borderline” Dwarf Planet. Some astronomers saying she “most certainly is a Dwarf Planet”, while others disagreeing based on her size, saying she is too small to have compressed into a fully solid body, to have been resurfaced, or to have collapsed into “hydrostatic equilibrium”, that is to assume spherical shape like a planet.

This dark world lies beyond the orbit of Neptune, orbiting 4,164,420,166 miles from the Sun.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed “FarFarOut”, which is 12,304,868,885 miles or 18 hours, 20 minutes and 55 seconds from Earth, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

The most distant man-made object, and the most distant known object in the Solar System Voyager 1, still operating after 46 years,7 months and 10 days is 15,123,350,964 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 33 minutes and 15 Seconds from Earth as of 1:28 PM, April 15, 2024, sailing 38,026 miles per hour through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,351,400 known asteroids as of April 15, 2024, per NASA.

5609 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 10, 2024 per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 1 at 6:27 AM or 11:27 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest distance from Earth on May 5, when she will be 225,661 miles from Earth.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It can produce up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 39 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of May 7. The nearly New Moon means dark skies for what should be an excellent show this year. The best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur on May 7 at 10:24 PM CDT or May 8 at 3:24 UTC. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur May 15 at 6:49 AM or 11:49 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 17 at 251,432 miles.

Full Moon will occur May 23th at 8:55 AM CDT or 13:55 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

May’s second Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 30 at 12:13 PM or 18:13 UTC.

In the Northern Sky the Big Dipper, part of Ursa Major, the Great Bear, begins the month upside down, “spilling its water” on Polaris, the North Star, which is the tip of the handle of the Little Dipper or Ursa Minor, the Little Bear.

Interestingly, the Big and Little Dippers are arranged so that when one is upright, the other is upside down. In addition, their handles appear to extend in opposite directions. The Big Dipper is by far the brighter of the two, appearing as a long-handled pan, while the Little Dipper resembles a dim ladle.

The Big Dipper is called by other names across the world. In the Netherlands it’s the “Saucepan”, “The Plough” in England and “The Great Wagon” in other parts of Europe.

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This month’s meeting will be on May14 at 7 PM.

The meeting will be held at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Calera.

I hope to see you there!

Mark Wells
WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Articles and suggestions are welcome!