ALERT NEWSLETTER – July 2023

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as the heat of Summer has arrived.

That time of the year has arrived when one dusts off the wallet and shoos away the moths.

Yes the time for ALERT dues has arrived.

To maintain roster records, according to ALERT’s constitution and bylaws, members who have not paid their 2023/2024 dues (which are due on July 2023’s meeting date, per Article IV), will be removed from the roster. After this point, these members may re-apply.

Members who are not current/in good standing may be ineligible for Callouts, NWSchat access, officer positions and the right to vote in the monthly meetings.

In special cases/hardship, members may submit a confidential request to be considered by the board. Such a request will be kept ultra-hush-hush, and can be brought to any board member: (Currently Mark Wells, Russell Thomas, Roger Parsons, Johnnie Knobloch & Casey Benefield).

More on dues, including payment address, can be found in the ALERT Bylaws, on the ALERT-Alabama.org website under Join/Documents.

Join ALERT/Documents

The direct link to the application can be found at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf

Existing members who are renewing can also use PayPal option via billrodgers1973@gmail.com

Also, if anyone would rather use Venmo, route it via @William-Rodgers-73

Until next month, everyone stay safe!

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Reader Feedback

On occasion I receive feedback from our readers. I appreciate the kind words and suggestions I receive, as everyone needs positive affirmation now and then, and because it confirms that someone is actually reading this rag.

Various comments I have heard along the way are “it’s long, that’s for sure” and “the almanac is my favorite part”, both points I agree with, by the way.

I enjoy researching the almanac and I can be long winded and run off at the keyboard at times.

Occasional questions are posed, and I wish to answer a couple of them.

How Hurricane Outlooks Are Made

In the May & June ALERT newsletters I shared the 2023 Hurricane Outlooks issued by Colorado State University, Accuweather & NOAA.

A reader asked the question “How are these outlooks made?”

First I’ll mention that these “outlooks” are not “landfall forecasts”. Using NOAA as an example, NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions, for hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall. Such precision is an impossibility. There are simply too many variables involved.

The outlook which is issued is a probabilistic outlook of the “likely” ranges of activity that has a “certain likelihood of occurring” given the hints, clues and conditions that are being observed or are climatologically trending towards.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons based on previous seasons with similar climate conditions factoring in uncertainties.

They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years, but the most likely and logical, with the realization that Mother Nature can be a cantankerous old heifer, throwing a monkey wrench into the works.

When looking at the various, often conflicting factors, the first thing forecasters look at is the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Do they see a La Niña, El Niño or neither?

During La Niña, the interaction between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above cause strong winds to push the warm water at the ocean’s surface westward from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, colder deeper water rises to the surface near the coast of South America. This makes the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator a 4° to 6° F below average.

This small change in the ocean’s temperature can affect weather all over the world.

Rain clouds normally form over warm ocean water. La Niña blows this warm water to the western Pacific. This means that places like Indonesia and Australia can get much more rain than usual. However, the cold water in the eastern Pacific causes less rain clouds to form on the eastern side of the Pacific.

La Niña can help shift the track of the jet stream and consequently how storm systems move across the continental United States.

While wetter than average conditions develop across portions of the northern U.S, namely the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska, the
subtropical jet stream shifts to the north, moving the storm tracks to northern Alabama and Georgia, increasing the likelihood of tornadoes and severe weather, while leaving Florida sunnier and drier than usual.

In the tropics La Niña causes stronger vertical wind shear which suppresses hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific, while in tropical Atlantic weaker wind shear and trade winds and greater atmospheric instability enhances tropical activity.

When La Niña’s mischievous bother, El Niño appears, the effects are opposite, bringing ocean temperatures of 4° to 6° F above average between the International Date Line and the west coast of South America.

Atmospheric pressure increases near Indonesia and in the western Pacific and decreases in the eastern Pacific. Pressure changes lead to the subtropical jet stream moving into Florida, southern Georgia, and Alabama, steering cloudy, rain-bearing systems into the region in winter and an increasing likelihood of tornadoes and severe weather in the Florida peninsula.

In the tropics El Niño causes weaker vertical wind shear which enhances hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific, while in tropical Atlantic stronger vertical wind shear and trade winds and greater atmospheric stability suppresses hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic.

La Niña can last 1 to 3 years, while El Niño lasts no more than 1 year.

During the past three hurricane seasons we have seen La Niña, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center give a 93% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, with fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

So, based on this alone we should have a fairly docile season.

But there is a hitch – the Atlantic Ocean is warm. Very warm, which could lessen or counteract the effect of El Niño.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach roughly 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. Much of the Atlantic basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

The deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

Currently temperatures closely resemble those prior to the active 2020 hurricane season, one of the most active hurricane seasons on record with nearly every community in the coastal United States experiencing the effects of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Will the warmer temperatures defeat El Niño? Only time will tell.

Other uncertainties include the fact that predicting these El Niño and La Niña events, also called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO is an inexact science, with skills that are continuously evolving. This skill is limited, as is the skill of predicting sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, atmospheric stability, and other factors known to influence overall seasonal hurricane activity.

So, the outlooks by NOAA and others are a balance of competing factors, based on, to quote NOAA:

“These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model.”

It’s a best guess, with the best information and interpretation that science currently provides.

While we are delving in alphabet soup, let me lay this on you.

Recently on social media two nets we’re advertised.

The World Wide Ragchew Amateur Radio Net (10 PM CDT) and the methods of joining this net was given as follows:

Allstar node 525963 ( asl image)
Echolink conference server WWARG
Echolink node 561802=W1SBW-L
D.M.R Tg 3150174 colour code 1 slot 2 brandmeister network
Fusion: Reflector# is 21096-Reflector name US-WWRAR
Mode M17, Host M17-WWR, Module “D”
Peanut app channel “WWRARN”
Teamspeak/irnserver users please Goto Amateur Radio Ragchew Net
Zello https://zello.page/QFoFzdqGnrfpDgey9 *** once you have been trusted in ***

And…

The Southeast Tag Multimode Net (6:30 PM CDT), with the methods of joining this net given as follows:

Allstar: LMARC Node 510131 Southeast Link Bridge System
DMR Brandmeister Network: TG 314722
DMR QRM Network: TG 43389
DMR TGIF Network: TG 43389
DMR+: TG 323 on server IPSC2-QuadNet
DStar: XRF/XLX/DCS 913-D
Echolink: Node N4LMC-L 94680 Southeast Link Bridge System
FCS Reflector: Southeast Link FCS002-89 and FCS003-89
HamShack Hotline: extension #12560
Hams Over IP: extension #15012
M17: M17 reflector M17-SEL D
NXDN: 43389 Southeast Link
P25: 43389 Southeast Link
Wires-X: Southeast Link, Room 43389
YCS Reflector: YCS310, Room 36 (FCS31036 / DG-ID 36)
YSF Reflector: 43389 US-Southeast Link

Both of these postings have something in common. Namely I don’t have a solitary clue as to what they are talking about or how to participate.

One of the suggestions I have received, and I think it is a good one, especially since ALERT utilizes some of these modes, is to explain how these modes work.

Here is the problem. I am an old goat.

I can click a Morse code key and press microphone push to talk connected to a radio, which uses an antenna that could easily pass for a clothesline. And, if I am lucky, some hapless fool somewhere on the globe will hear my anemic signal drifting in somewhere in the static.

As for the modes mentioned above, I am clueless.

So, if you happen to understand any of the gibberish I have just typed, help us out by writing a plain English article explaining all this gobbledygook for old goats like me, for whom Google has not been our friend.

What are these modes? How do they work? Which ones are popular locally?
What resources and equipment does one need? Are they worth the effort and expense?

Your input will be appreciated by inquiring goats, both old and new, who really do want to know.

Thanks!

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss must walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

From 1851 to 2022 there have been 130 Tropical Storms and 61 Hurricanes, 29 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Gemini.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude -1.6 in Taurus, The Bull, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Venus, the brilliant “Evening Star, shines at magnitude -4.6 in Leo, The Lion, dominates the evening sky rising a little after 8:00 PM, 25° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness and setting around 10:20 PM.

As the month progresses she will sink lower and lower each night until finally disappearing from the night sky on the 25th.

Venus will pass 3.6° north of Mars, or be in a “quasi-conjunction”, on July 1, at 2:48 AM or 06:48
UTC.

If two planets come to within 5° or less of one another but, don’t actually pass each other, (which is a conjunction) it’s called a “quasi-conjunction”.

In this case he two worlds won’t pass each other, but, will approach each other and then as the weeks go by slowly drift apart,

For perspective, a Full Moon is 0.5° wide, so they will be 7 Full Moons apart.

She will pass 1.7° South of the star Regulus on Leo on July 16.

In a telescope she is a brilliant thin crescent.

Earth, magnitude -4.0 as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Sagittarius, The Archer.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 6 at 3:06 PM CDT or 20:06
UTC, when the distance from the Sun’s center to Earth’s center will be 94,506,364 miles from our home star, as she and the Moon wobble through space, the Moon tugging on the Earth like an unruly pup on a leash.

Mars, magnitude +0.7, with his Moons Phobos and Deimos are in Leo, The Lion, is an early evening object, becoming visible just before 9:00 PM, 21° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness and setting around 10:40 PM.

Like Venus, as the month progresses he will sink lower and lower each night finally disappearing from the night sky on the 22nd.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.5, is in Virgo, The Virgin.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, is in Aries, The Ram, riseing in the early morning sky around 2:00 AM, 40° above the eastern horizon, 3 hours and 40 minutes before the Sun, and fading from view at sunrise.

He gains altitude each night and rising ever earlier and by the end of the month rises a little after 1:00 AM, when he will be 64° above the south-eastern horizon, fading from view at dawn.

Saturn, magnitude +0.8, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, as a morning object. He becomes visible around midnight, low in the eastern sky, 11°, and reaches his highest point in the sky just before 5:00 AM, 45° above the southern horizon, just before fading into the dawn.

As the month progresses he will rise earlier and earlier and by months end will rise just after 10:00 PM and reaching his highest point in the sky just before 3:00 AM, 45° above the southern horizon and fades from view at sunrise.

Uranus, magnitude +5.9, and his 27 moons and ring, in Aries, The Ram, has emerged from behind the sun and rises 2:20 AM, 3 hours before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 22° above the eastern horizon before fading from view at dawn.

By months end he will rise just after midnight and reach an altitude of 50° above the eastern horizon before fading into the dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, and his 14 moons and ring, is in Pisces, The Fish, having emerged from behind the Sun, and is a morning object rising at midnight and reaching an altitude of 41° above the south-eastern horizon before fading into the dawn.

By months end he will becomes visible (in telescopes) around midnight and reaches his highest altitude of 54° a little after 4:00AM and then fades into the dawn,

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.4 in Capricorn, the Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.4 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team. faintly shines at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and Serpens the Snake.
50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus the Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus the Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius the Water Bearer.

Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus the River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, and asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is 12,246,241,135 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 15 minutes and 40.1951 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 9 months and 19 days is 14,830,405,205 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 6 minutes and 52 Seconds from Earth as of 7:46 PM, June 24, sailing through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,298,061 known asteroids as of June24, per NASA.

5445 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 14, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 3 at 6:40 AM CDT or 11:40 UTC, when the Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated.

July’s Full Moon is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

This is also the first of four supermoons for 2023. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 4, when she will be 223,787 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur July 9 at 8:47 PM CDT or 1:47 UTC on July 10.

During the Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

New Moon, when the Moon is located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. will occur July 17 at 1:31 AM or 18:33 UTC.

This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 20, when she will be 252,457 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur July 25 at 5:06 PM CDT or 22:06 UTC.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The nearly full moon will block most of the fainter meteors this year. But if you are patient, you may still be able to catch a few good ones.

Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

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This month’s meeting will be on July 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport,

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter