ALERT NEWSLETTER – June 2023

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well as we ease into summer!

May has been unusual, to me at least, as it’s the first May I remember where I had to turn a heater on. Of course, it may be because the more ancient I get, the colder I get.

I was originally supposed to be born on a tropical island. Unfortunately, the stork had navigational issues and I ended up in Birmingham instead. Fortunately, it was Birmingham Alabama, rather than Birmingham Michigan.

I am ready for warmth & mosquitoes. Horseflies and fireflies, which we always called “lightning bugs.”

I don’t mind sweating a gallon or two. That’s what water is for.

Here’s wishing you a happy and safe summer!

 

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2023-2024 officers for ALERT!
By
Casey Benefield NZ2O

We have quite a diverse and strong array of skills within ALERT, serving the NWS and amateur radio’s link to the NWS!

• President: Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX Johnnie is active in the amateur radio community, wearing quite a few hats! He’s currently serving as our Alabama ARES Assistant Section Manager, LDS Emergency Coordinator, and Vice President of the Central AL chapter of the National Weather Association.
• Vice President: Casey Benefield, NZ2O Lauren has stepped down as VP, as her activity with SSFD has/will only increase. Casey is back as VP for this term. Primary activities with ALERT will continue to include the background technical side. You can find Casey on LinkedIn most of the time, or via email, callsign at ALERT-Alabama.org.
• Treasurer & Membership: Bill Rodgers, K4FSO Bill continues as treasurer into this term. Bill is also quite active in amateur radio by day, and IT Systems Engineer by night (or the other way around, depending on the week)! He’s one of the guys that set up amateur radio, allowing middle school students talk to astronauts on the International Space Station, among other projects.
• Secretary: Justin Glass, N0ZO Justin continues as secretary into this term. Justin is a VE for Laurel VEC, administering free amateur radio license exams, with Central AL ARC. His mobile amateur radio setups are quite nice, and I’m starting to think of him as a master of remote control and IoT (Internet of Things).
• NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas, KV4S Russell continues as NWS Liaison and Station Trustee. Russell has brought us much greater digital amateur radio integration, such as bridging DMR, Echolink, AllStar, D-Star (XRF), in an effort to make it easier for areas not reachable via VHF/UHF to connect with ALERT and K4NWS (National Weather Service Birmingham). He is instrumental with experimenting with technologies that may aid ALERT in its mission to get ground-truth severe weather reports to NWS, as well as liaising with other regional Skywarn groups, as we work together to cover edge counties.
• Public Information/Training: Casey Benefield, NZ2O Casey likes anything having to do with data and technology.
• Board Members: Dale Chambers, KD4QHZ; Mark Wells, WD4NYL; Casey Benefield, NZ2O; Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX; Russell Thomas, KV4S

Duties for Officers:
• President Appoints the nominating committee of 2 members in March for next election. Presides/conducts all meetings. Votes only in case of tie at regular meetings. Secures meeting space for meetings. Appoints committees for specific tasks, be a member of committees. Appoints non-elected officers: Operations, Public Information, Training.
• Vice President In event that the President is unable to perform duties of office, the VP steps in to perform the duties in absence, and if necessary becomes President and holds office for the remainder of the term.
• Treasurer & Membership Receives all monies, and maintains accurate record of all receipts and expenditures. Reports activities and treasury status at each monthly meeting, including regular/emergency expenditures. Maintains member roster and collects dues, notifies members of dues becoming due.
• Secretary Maintains the official minutes of meetings of ALERT. Maintains copies of bylaws and keeps a record of all changes to the bylaws. In the event of the President and VP becoming unable to fulfill the office of President, the Secretary would hold the office for the remainder of the term or until a special election can be held to fill the vacancy
• NWS Liaison Serve as the official contact person between ALERT and the NWS for issues/changes in radio operations that need to be addressed by ALERT/NWS. Keeps and updates the official callout lists and schedule. Upon NWS request, issues call-outs to the NWS, coordinates the response/shifts. If needed, contact responders and remind them of scheduling. Provides NWS with a ‘callout tree’ of personnel who may initiate callouts, in the even the liaison officer is unavailable
• Operations (Appointed by President) Resolves any communications problems outside the NWS (repeater, link trouble). This officer has charge over ALERT-owned computer and communication equipment, with leeway to modify, repair, augment or enhance ALERT’s capabilities as he sees fit. The Operations and NWS Liaison Officers shall work to keep the training officer informed of any new procedures and equipment, to keep members updated.
• Training (Appointed by President) Maintain and update the procedures manual for operations at the National Weather Service. Provide workshops at the NWS to all Operational Members of ALERT, intended to provide hands-on training in the operations of the K4NWS station Amateur Radio and computer equipment. As new equipment and technology is adopted, the training officer shall provide update briefings or trainings to members to keep them aware of the changes.
• Public Information (Appointed by President) Be a liaison between ALERT and news organizations. Currently, this includes web/social media engagements, as our involvement with the news is somewhat limited. Hamfests and contact with other radio clubs is often a part of the position.
• Board of Directors Appoints or continues the trustee of the K4NWS callsign. The board of directors reviews challenges to membership approval, member standing, discipline, constitutional amendments submitted to the board (to present to membership), hardship review for dues, and conducts any other ALERT business not delegated otherwise in the bylaws. Meetings are held every June, September, December, March, or any time the President calls a special session. *Board meetings, except for executive session, are open to ALERT’s voting membership. The board is composed of President, Immediate Past President, Station Trustee, A two year term at-large member, a one year term at-large member, appointed by Presidents. Terms can be consecutive.

 

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm, began issuing outlooks on May 15.

The first subtropical cyclone of 2023 has already occurred, though it wasn’t known at the time of its existence.

The National Hurricane Center in its normal process of re-assessing weather systems has determined that an area of low pressure which formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in mid-January should have been designated as a subtropical storm.

This storm has been designated as AL012023. The next system will be designated as AL022023.

If the system begins as a tropical depression, then it would be given the designation “Tropical Depression Two”, and if it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Arlene.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 19 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting “normal” seasons.

NOAA scientists expect El Nino conditions to develop, which tend to suppress Atlantic activity. However, there is the possibility that this could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, including the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and enhanced sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean which provides more energy to fuel storm development.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition, this is the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see, and it grows a little longer year by year.

The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 5:30PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

What harm was done? You might ask.

First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment can keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.

So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

Satellite imagery? We’ve got it!

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
HurricaneZone.net – Tropical Cyclone HQ™
Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page
Sector Images: Gulf of Mexico – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Caribbean – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: U.S. Atlantic Coast – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Tropical Atlantic – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Radar Sites? Try these!

Barbadoes Radar
Weather Radar: Barbados – meteoblue

Cuba Radar
Tiempo Actual, Red de Radares Meteorológicos de Cuba (insmet.cu)

Leeward Islands – Guadeloupe & Martinique Radar
ANIMATION SATELLITE et RADAR de PRECIPITATION par Météo-France (meteofrance.gp)

Mexico Radar
Live Weather Radar – Mexico | RainViewer

Puerto Rico Radar
NWS Radar (weather.gov)

United States Dual Pol Radar
COD NEXRAD: LOT

(Note that the COD site will default to Illinois. Chose the radar site you want from the radar site map on the upper right side of the screen. To find the map look for the first icon under “NEXRAD Base Reflectivity & click the icon. A map of the US with every NEXRAD site in the continental US, Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico.

For the most reliable storm information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.

The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.

Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.

Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources. Don’t just believe everything you read. Even if you agree with it or want it to be true. And, that applies to a very wide spectrum of subjects, as you cruise down the Disinformation Superhighway.

Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources, no matter how flashy or how convincingly it may be presented. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.

That includes my wise weather prognostications also.

Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that King Charles is a shape shifting lizard dude. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the King, it is still yet unproven.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2021 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2021 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

Air pollution or the lack thereof can influence tropical activity. NOAA has found that a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the U.S. is linked to a 33% increase in Atlantic storm formation in the past couple decades, while the opposite is happening in the Pacific with more pollution and fewer typhoons. Less pollution lets more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and vice versa.

Saharan sand blown across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will limit tropical development by blocking sunlight. This is a common occurrence which happens every spring and summer.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.

The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.

The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 5 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.

If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.

One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.

The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.

It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.

The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.

Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7

This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2022 there have been 99 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

 

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus.

Mercury, magnitude +0.5 in Aries the Ram, is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise.

Venus, magnitude -4.4 in Gemini the Twins, is near her highest altitude above the western horizon, which she will reach on June 4.

She becomes visible just after 8;00 PM, 34° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting a little after 11 PM.

In a telescope Venus is a dazzling half-Moon shape, about 50% sunlit. She gets larger each day while waning in phase. It will become a bigger, thinning crescent dropping lower from mid-June through mid-July.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Sagittarius The Archer.

Mars, magnitude +0.6 in Cancer the Crab, is an early evening object, becoming visible around 8:30 PM, 36° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting just before midnight.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.1, is in Virgo the Virgin.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, in Aries the Ram, recently passed behind the Sun at solar conjunction and is now visible in the predawn sky rising two hours before the Sun, around 3:30 AM, reaching an altitude of 19° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Saturn, magnitude +0.9, in Aquarius the Water Bearer, is emerging from behind the Sun, and is visible in the morning sky, rising just after 1 AM and reaching an altitude of 39° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Uranus, 5.9 in Aries the Ram, is lost in the glare of the Sun,

Neptune, 7.8 magnitude in Pisces the Fish, rises 3 hours and 39 minutes before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 28° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.4 in Capricorn, the Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.3 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team. faintly shines at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

Discovered January 5, 2005, Eris was initially labeled by NASA as the “Tenth Planet” and was temporarily named “Xena” after TV’s “Xena The Warrior Princess” and her moon “Gabrielle”, after Xena’s sidekick.

But, since planets and dwarf planets are named for mythological characters and not TV characters, this world was officially dubbed “Eris” the Greek goddess of strife and discord.
The name was proposed by the Caltech team on September 6, 2006, and it was assigned on September 13, 2006.

I preferred “Xena”, but they forgot to ask for my valuable input.

They need one named “Buffy” for “Buffy The Vampire Slayer” also. For back in the day The Slayer rocked.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and Serpens the Snake.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus the Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus the Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius the Water Bearer.

Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus the River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, and asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is 12,246,241,135 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 15 minutes and 40.1951 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 8 months and 24 days is 14,805,058,006 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 4 minutes and 36 Seconds from Earth as of 6:38 PM, May 29, sailing through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,284,260 known asteroids as of May 29, per NASA.

5419 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 16, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 3 at 10:43 CDT or 03:43 UTC on June 4. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” and “Honey Moon”.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 6 at 226,713 Miles.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 20 at 2:41 PM CDT or 7:41 UTC on June 10.

New Moon will occur June 17 at 11:38 PM CDT or 04:38 UTC on June 18. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

Summer Solstice will occur at 9:51 AM CDT or 14:51 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 22 at 251,865 Miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 26 at 2:50 AM or 7:50 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

The First Quarter moon will block out some of the faintest meteors with this unpredictable shower, but if you are patient, you should be able to catch quite a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight.

Around 10 PM in mid-June, Libra the Scales will be passing due South. When Alpha Librae, the lower-right of the two brightest stars of Libra, is due south, if you look directly below it you will see nothing but horizon. But, if you were at a lower latitude, say 29°, the latitude of Orlando, or points south would see our brilliant, -0.27 magnitude neighbor Alpha Centauri above the horizon.

At 4.37 light years distance, the Alpha Centauri system is nearest star system to our own.

It is a triple star consisting of Alpha Centauri A, also called Rigil Kentaurus, Alpha Centauri B or Toliman and the closest star to the Sun, Alpha Centauri C also called Proxima Centauri, 4.24 light years from Earth,

Alpha Centauri A is a near twin of our Sun in almost every way, including age, while Alpha Centauri B is somewhat smaller and dimmer but still quite like the Sun. The third member, Proxima Centauri is a much smaller red dwarf star that travels around the A-B pair.

Proxima Centauri has three known planets: Proxima b, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone or so called “Goldilocks Zone” – not too hot and not too cold to support some form of life if it has a suitable atmosphere. Proxima c, a super-Earth, which is possibly surrounded by a huge ring system and Proxima d, which orbits very closely to the star.

Alpha Centauri A may have a Neptune-sized habitable-zone planet, though it is not yet known to be planetary in nature and could be an artifact of the discovery mechanism. Alpha Centauri B has no known planets.

 

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This month’s meeting will be on June 13.

The meeting will be held at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Calera and remotely as was last month’s meeting. Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

I hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter