Hi Everyone,
Our spring tornado season is just around the corner and now is the time to review your plans and procedures for those storms to come.
Take this time to brush up on your skills. Do not wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late.
In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions:
Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready?
Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working?
Are the batteries charged?
Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources.
Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings?
If you are on the NWSChat or Slack Chat, is your password up to date?
Is your training and knowledge fresh, or do you need to do a quick review?
Are you prepared both at home and at work?
In preparing, remember that keeping yourself and your family alive and intact during and after the storms is your number one priority.
Here’s hoping that your February will be peaceful and safe.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2022 Tornado Statistics
In 2022 Alabama was the second most active year for tornadoes on record, with 98 tornadoes, second only to the Super Outbreak of 2011.
The Top 10 years for Alabama tornadoes are:
1. 2011 – 145 Tornadoes
2. 2022 – 98 Tornadoes
3. 2008 – 94 Tornadoes
4. 2019 – 82 Tornadoes
5. 2009 – 80 Tornadoes
6. 2005 – 77 Tornadoes
7. 2020 – 71 Tornadoes
8. 2006 – 69 Tornadoes
9. 2021 – 67 Tornadoes
10. 2016 – 65 Tornadoes
One might ask why there has been such an increase in tornadoes in the 21st century?
Several factors might be at play including:
1. Improvements in NWS radar allowing detection of smaller tornadoes and refinement of detection techniques.
2. NWS & Broadcast media Storm Spotter training classes providing more trained “eyes on the sky”.
3. social media basically increases the number of spotters, whether they have received formal training or not. Which is where filtering of reports becomes crucial.
4. Broadcast media improvements, with reporters in the field, tower cams, etc.
5. An actual shift in Tornado Alley from the Midwest to the Mississippi & Alabama area.
One thing to consider is that there may be more tornadoes occurring in the less densely populated areas of Alabama than we realize, as the area thinly spread with spotters.
The complicated thing is that the western counties lie on the extreme range of the radar sites. Sumpter & Pickens County and for that matter Kemper & Noxubee County in Mississippi are covered by the Jackson MS, Columbus AFB, Mobile & Birmingham NEXRAD sites, but all at long range. The curvature of the Earth prevents a near ground level view. We can see what may be happening in the mid-levels of thunderstorms, but what is happening at the lower levels is an educated guess.
That’s why when I am elected President in 2024, one of my first Executive Orders, in addition to declaring the Crimson Tide a National Treasure, will be the establishment of a NEXRAD site either in York Alabama or Meridian Mississippi (depending on how many people voted for me in each – yes, I’m a crook) to plug that coverage gap.
That and each office will get a fleet of portable NEXRAD units that they can plunk down wherever they want, crank up a tower and after the storms pass move them on to the next area of interest.
In 2022 there were 43 EF0, 39 EF1, 14 EF2 and 2 EF3 Tornadoes.
The Birmingham County Warning Area had 50 Tornadoes
The Huntsville County Warning Area had 8 Tornadoes
The Mobile County Warning Area had 37 Tornadoes
The Alabama portion of the Tallahassee Warning Area had 2 Tornadoes
Monthly tornado totals were:
32 in March
20 in April
12 in November
11 in October
9 in February
7 in January
4 in May
3 in December
0 in June, July, August & September
There were 16 injuries and 3 fatalities
43 0ut of 67 counties had at least one tornado.
The Top 10 Counties for Tornadoes from 1950 – 2021 are:
Jefferson 105
Mobile 100
Baldwin 97
Cullman 95
Tuscaloosa 83
Madison 80
Marshall 72
Dekalb 68
Limestone 65
Walker 57
A large percentage of the Mobile and Baldwin County tornadoes were in association with landfalling tropical systems.
And 2023?
January 2023 has already set a new record for tornadoes, with 28 having occurred as of January 22.
So, with the year still very young, stay prepared, keep a jaundiced eye towards the sky, and remember that the question isn’t IF severe weather is coming, but WHEN.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Mark’s Almanac
February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it, is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.
February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.
February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year, which will next occur in 2024, has 29 days.
Ground Hog Day is on February 2 & believers will watch that flea bitten danged old Yankee Punxsutawney Phil and True Southern Gentleman Birmingham Bill, to see if they see their shadows. If so, prepare for six more weeks of winter.
How did we come up with Groundhog Day anyway?
It is said by one theory that the first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. 1000 years ago when the world used the Julian calendar, Spring Equinox fell on March 16, which is exactly six weeks after February 2. So, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. But, if he didn’t, there would be only 42 more days of winter left instead. Get the calculator out and you will find that 42 days equals six weeks, so Groundhog Day may have started out as a practical joke.
The modern 21 Century version blurs this into saying that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and fails to see its shadow, winter will soon end. If not, it will return into its burrow, and the winter will continue for 6 more weeks.
It is believed that the Germans in Pennsylvania brought Groundhog Day with them.
Morgantown, Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris’ diary entry for Feb. 4, 1841 states “Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy, he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.”
So, how accurate is the little goomer?
Well, Groundhog Day believers claim a 75% to 90% accuracy rate. The National Climatic Data Center, on the other hand, says it’s more like 39%.
But you know how Heathens can be.
If the NCDC is right, maybe they can still use the critter anyway, by flipping the theory around, so if he predicts warmth, you go with winter & vice versa.
I think this is called “Inverse Forecasting”. Or it should be anyway.
In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.
Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.
There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.
North Atlantic Tropical activity is at a minimum. From 1851 to 2022 there has been only one Tropical Storm to occur, 70 MPH Tropical Storm #1, which affected Florida on February 2 & 3, 1952.
Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 39.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to 48.6 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 10 hours 35 minutes on February 1 to 11 hours 26 minutes on February 28.
Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:
February 1 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 5:18 PM
February 14 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 5:31 PM
February 28 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 5:43 PM
Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.8 is in Capricornus.
At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude 0.00 in Sagittarius, The Archer, is emerging into the morning sky as it approaches greatest elongation west. From Birmingham, he is visible low in the southeast in the dawn sky, rising a little after 5:09 AM, a 1 hour and 36 minutes before the Sun, and reaching an altitude of 11° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn.
Mercury’s 88 day orbit around the Sun will carry it to its furthest point to the Sun, or “Aphelion” at 0.47 AU or Astronomical Units, or 43,689,000 miles, on February 15.
Unlike most of the planets, which follow almost exactly circular orbits around the Sun only varying in their distance from the Sun by a few percent, Mercury has a significantly elliptical orbit.
His distance from the Sun varies between 0.307 AU or 28,537,000 miles at ”Perihelion”, the closest approach to the Sun, and 0.47 AU at Aphelion, his furthest distance from the Sun. This variation, of over 50%, means that his surface receives over twice as much energy from the Sun at Perihelion as compared to Aphelion.
Venus, magnitude -3.8 in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, shines brilliantly low in the west-southwest in evening twilight. Look for her far to the lower right of bright Jupiter above.
She becomes visible around 5:30, 15° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting 1 hour and 43 minutes after the Sun, or about a half hour after twilight’s end.
Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the Constellation Hydra.
Mars, magnitude -0.5 in Taurus, The Bull, shines very high toward the south in early to mid-evening.
He becomes visible around 5:30 PM, 58° above the eastern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He then reaches his highest point in the sky, or “Culmination” around 8:00 PM, 80° above the southern horizon. He will continue to be observable until just after 2 AM, when he sinks below 8° above the north-western horizon.
Mars is fading, from magnitude –0.6 to –0.1 and shrinking as the Earth recedes from Him.
Mars will pass 1.1° South of the Moon on February 27.
Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 7.8, is in Virgo, The Virgin.
Jupiter, magnitude –2.2, in Pisces, The Fish, shines high in the southwest in twilight, becoming visible around 5:30 PM, 49° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting around 10 PM.
Jupiter will pass 1.2 North of the Moon on February 22.
Saturn, magnitude +0.9 in Capricornus, is hidden in the glow of the Sun and will pass behind the Sun or be in “Conjunction” on February 16 and will then emerge very low in the east-southeast morning twilight in late February.
Uranus, magnitude 5.8, is in Aries, and is high in the south-southwest in early evening. He becomes visible a little after 6:00 PM, 72° above the southern horizon, as dusk fades to darkness, at his highest point in the sky. He will continue to be observable until around 11 PM, when he sinks below 21° above the western horizon.
In binoculars Uranus is a little pinpoint “star” and in small telescopes with sharp optics, high power, and a spell of good seeing, a tiny, fuzzy ball.
Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius-Pisces border, is about 11° to the lower right of Jupiter. He becomes accessible just after 6 PM 31° above the south-western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting 3 hours and 46 minutes after the Sun at 9:00 PM.
Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.5 in Sagittarius, The Archer.
Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring, and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes, The Herdsman.
Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices or “Berenices Hair”.
Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.
At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.
90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Serpens, The Snake.
50000 Quaoar, and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiuchus, The Serpent Bearer.
90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus, The Bull.
225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius, The Water Bearer.
2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus, The River.
Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed “FarFarOut”, which is 12.4 billion miles or 18.5 light hours from Earth, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.
.
5241 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January18, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/
The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on February 4, when she will be 252,572 miles from Earth.
Full Moon will occur February 5 at 12:30 PM CST or 18:30 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore as the heaviest snows usually fall at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.
Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur February 13.
During a Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.
The Moon will be at Perigee or her closest approach to Earth on February 19, when she will be 222,617 miles from Earth.
New Moon occurs February 20 at 1:08 AM or 07:08 UTC when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.
First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur February 27.
During the Quarter Moons the Moon is only 10% as bright as a Full Moon.
Perhaps the biggest astronomical news of the month is Comet ZTF (C/2022 E3).
Comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) Is a relatively bright comet visible in binoculars and a pretty sight in modest telescopes in clear non-light polluted skies. Social media would have you believe that this is the ”comet of the century”, but we all know how social media can be.
Observers with dark, moonless skies may spot the comet with the naked eye as it sails between the Big and Little Dippers.
Current visual magnitude estimates put Comet ZTF at between magnitude 6.5 and 7.0. It should peak around magnitude 5.5 in early February.
I can tell you straight up, that you need to be away from city lights to really see this.
The least light polluted skies in Alabama are in a crescent shaped area of west Alabama from west of Tuscaloosa to near the Mississippi border and north and south of that line. An especially good area is southwest Alabama from south of Tuscaloosa to north of Mobile. Another area is southeast of Montgomery towards Eufaula.
Light Pollution Map – DarkSiteFinder.com
But, anywhere away from the pea soup, streetlamp, LED – “Leaves Eyes Damaged” headlight infested cities will help.
You will probably have to use “averted vision”, a trick astronomers use to see faint objects.
Averted vision is a technique for viewing faint objects which uses your peripheral vision instead of looking directly at the object.
This technique compensates for fact that the retina of the human eye has virtually no rods, the cells which detect dim light in black and white near the focal point of the eye, but, has mostly cone cells, which serve as bright light and color detectors and are not as useful during the night.
This situation results in a decrease in visual sensitivity in central field of vision at night.
But by looking as an object a little off to the nasal side of the field of view, which avoids the possibility that the object will be imaged on the blind spot, which everyone has at approximately 15 degrees on the cheek side of the field of vison, you can use the most light sensitive part of the eye, which is around 20 degrees off the center of vision.
For right-eyed observers it is best to shift to the right, and for left-eye observers it is best to shift to the left.
I have used this technique for many years and though it can be frustrating not being able to look directly at an object, as they tend to disappear from view when you look directly at them, it does work, and the object appears brighter. This is especially useful for observing diffuse objects such as galaxies, comets and nebulae.
You should give your eyes time to adapt to the dark. It can take typically 7 minutes for your eyes to become used to darkness and up to 30 minutes to become totally adjusted to the dark conditions of observing.
Care should be taken not to ruin this dark adaptation by being exposed to bright lights, such as headlights from passing cars, flashlights, or moonlight. Lights with red filters will not harm the eyes sensitivity.
Relaxing your eyes also helps. By straining at objects or squinting eyes we place stress on them which makes it harder for the eye to refocus on objects. By relaxing our eyes when we look through a telescope or by using an eye patch, we can improve our vision.
An eyepatch also helps preserve dark adapted eyesight. There is a theory that the reason so many pirates are depicted as wearing eyepatches is not that they typically had the worst of luck in combat with all of them losing an eye, but rather they were preserving their “night eye” so that when they went below the deck, which was very poorly lit, they could still see.
Comets are binocular objects rather than telescope objects. Binoculars have greater light gathering power than telescopes, which tend to over magnify objects. Plus, you have twice the light data reaching your brain with binoculars since you are using both of your eyes.
7 X 50 binoculars are usually recommended, though I prefer my 7 X 35 binoculars instead, as they give me a broader field of view, and I find they are easier to spot objects with.
To me 7 X 35 binoculars are the equivalent of a “Rich Field Telescope”. A Rich Field Telescope is designed to present the maximum possible number of stars within its wide field of view and is used for viewing larger objects such as star clusters.
Using such a telescope to sweep along the Milky Way on a dark moonless night, is one of the most beautiful sights that you will ever see. It is almost like being “up there”. I could get lost for hours drifting among the stars
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
One event to mark on the calendar is the BirmingHAMfest, Friday and Saturday March3 & 4 at the Trussville Civic Center .
Doors open at 4:00 p.m. on Friday and close at 7:00 p.m. The hamfest will reopen at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday and close at 4:00 p.m. with the grand prize drawing.
BARC :: BirmingHAMfest :: March 3-4, 2023
This month’s ALERT meeting will be on 7 PM February 14 at the NWS Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport.
Finally, we are in need of weather, radio & emergency communications related articles for this newsletter. Any help at all will be appreciated.
Mark Wells
WD4NYL
ALERT Newsletter
|
|
|