ALERT NEWSLETTER – October 2021

Hi everyone and welcome to the October ALERT Newsletter.

Fall has arrived and with it we can look forward to the changing of the fall leaves, the occasional nip in the air, and perhaps Hobgoblins visiting us at the end of the month.

October is a fun time of the year, usually being not too hot and not too cold – the “Goldilocks” of seasons.

It is a time to enjoy fall football, the baseball playoffs and the last outdoor adventures of the year.

Here is hoping that you safely enjoy the days that this season and the pretty weather October brings.

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Webs Of Mystery

The long-awaited dry spell finally having finally arrived, I decided to catch up on some overdue odds and ends in the basement or as I say do some “drive you crazy work” as you can work all day and not really see much results at the end of the ordeal.

Grabbing two hernia sized garbage bags I walked by the side of the house, glanced to my right at I something or the another, I don’t know what, and then looking straight ahead I came to a dead stop as my two eyes met eight eyes looking back at me from a grinning spider sitting on a gooey three-foot web hanging about three inches from my face.

If I had run headlong into the web, my neighbors would have seen me making moves that would make Bruce Lee and Jackie Chan jealous and I would have been left with an uneasy feeling that Simon The Spider was lurking somewhere on my hide waiting for an opportune moment to inject me with some grim concoction that would do strange and horrid things to me before leading my sorry carcass to the Grim Reaper.

Seeing these large webs hanging from almost every tree, I told my wife Teresa “we were going to have clear weather for a while. The spiders told me so.”

I love nature and I have always found it endlessly fascinating watching how God’s creatures somehow magically know the days forecast and even more so that “changes are in the wind” even though my weather instruments may show no evidence that anything is looming just beyond the horizon.

We also possess these “sixth senses” of nature, that some might call a “gut feeling” about our surroundings, situations, and people.

For example, you probably can recall instances where people, despite what they might be doing, saying or perhaps not saying that somehow triggered an internal signal that something was off and it later proving true. Not unlike that feeling you get that someone is staring at you, and turning towards that person, you find that it was true.

How did you know?

The secret is that we still possess the primal senses and instincts of our ancestors, but, our busy lives, endless distractions and the constant noise of man and his machines have dulled these senses to the point that we don’t even realize that they are still there.

21st Century humans are probably the least “situationally aware” generation that has ever lived.

On a typical day our eyes are pinpoint focused on a screen, as mine are now. We tune out distracting sounds or mask them with music blasting in earbuds. Our sense of touch is focused on a keyboard or screen. Scented candles or colognes mask our sense smell and the mega spiced, overheated enchilada from Macho Taco melts what few functioning taste buds we have left.

With all five senses have been dampened or defeated and our mental focus dulled by our brooding over the latest garbage we read on the Internet and cheerful messages from the YouTube Prophets Of Doom, we are so distracted that almost anything could be going on around us and we won’t have a clue.

Here is a true example. I work on the crest of Red Mountain. One day, there was a blimp visiting Birmingham for a football game, the Birmingham Bowl, if I recall, and the giant sausage came gliding by Red Mountain just a few hundred feet up. I had never seen one THAT close. “Wow!” I thought, and I looked in the parking lot which had maybe 50 people going to and fro and not a single person noticed this beast lumbering by. Everyone was talking, texting, Facebooking, and in their own little worlds.

Even if it had landed on their pointy heads, I doubt they would have noticed.

We are a comatose society.

The good news is that we can retune our senses by either unplugging, plugging in less or making a concentrated effort to just pay attention to what’s going on around us. Which in this day and age, as with any ages past, is a most intelligent move to make.

Our awareness of nature can be regained by getting away from noisy places, people and things. For instance, if you go solo camping for a week, with no radios, phones or people’s conversations to distract you, in a couple of days you will find yourself slowly getting into sync with the natural world around you.

You start hearing sounds – birds, squirrels, the wind in the trees, things which you may have never noticed before. You smell the scents of the forest – the trees, flowers and animal hints and traces. You become aware of the length of shadows and start getting an idea of the time of day, without looking at a watch and find yourself becoming in sync with natures timing. And you discover feelings and a sense of awareness that our ancestors always knew, but are brand new, almost alien to us.

Some are frightened by the thought of that solitude and the unknowns of this wild world. I relish it.

Nature supplies some interesting weather indicators. Some you read of are nonsense, some are not. The following fall into the latter category, as they are true many more times than not.

Spiders, my webbed friends. Spiders do indeed spin larger webs during periods of clear weather. Occasionally they do miss their forecasts and you see them quickly abandoning their webs as large raindrops begin striking their carefully woven artwork. If they sense rain is moving in, they will gather their webs up and stow them, as spiders are economical creatures. It takes a lot of spider goo to build a web, and the goo can be pricey. Ask any spider.

Ants will shore up their hills in anticipation of or in some cases, in response to long periods of heavy rain. The only problem is they don’t deconstruct them after the event, so if you see a foot high anthill is it because it’s going to rain, or is it left over construction?

One interesting thing I saw was on the eve of Hurricane Katrina. I was working the night shift and during my tasks I noticed ants moving en masse in the parking lot towards the West along the crest of Red Mountain. Streams of Hundreds if not thousands of them.

During consequent hurricane landfalls I learned that seismographs could detect microtremors from major hurricanes which are produced as the undersea waves crash into the continental shelf. My theory is the ants felt the vibrations.

There are many examples of ants and roaches fleeing from the shorelines, and animals panicking moments before a tsunami arrived.

Just before a tsunami struck Sri Lanka and India in 2005. elephants screamed and ran for higher ground, dogs refused to go outdoors, flamingos abandoned their low-lying nests and the zoo animals rushed into their shelters and could not be enticed to come back out.

In this case wildlife experts believed the animals’ more acute sense of hearing and other senses enabled them to hear or feel the Earth’s vibration, tipping them off to the approaching disaster long before humans realized what was going on.

With humans sometimes the only clue to an approaching tsunami is when the waters suddenly recede hundreds of feet away from the shore in a process called “drawback”, exposing the seafloor. Seeing this, people go out to collect seashells only to be washed away five minutes later by the tsunami. If you are ever on a coastline and see a mysterious drawback occurring, you have at most five minutes to flee to higher ground.

Roaches panicking in Birmingham don’t mean a tsunami. But, unless you are prone to seeing the miserable louts anyway, the sudden appearance of roaches in your house usually indicates colder weather is arriving.

Other pesky creatures, such as flies, gnats & mosquitoes bite worse before rain sets in.

Wasps, and bees retreat to their homes before rain, along with birds and spiders. When they reappear, it usually indicates the storm is about to end.

Crickets chirp faster when it’s warm and slower when it is cold.

Crickets can serve as thermometers. Tradition says that if you count the cricket’s chirps for 14 seconds and then add 40, you will obtain the temperature in Fahrenheit at the cricket’s location.

Or you can cheat and use the NWS Cricket Chirp Calculator Cricket Chirp Convertor (weather.gov)

Katydids also can give you the temperature. Per the Mississippi State Extension Services “The Gloworm” count the number of calls per minute, add 161 and divide by 3.

They also say that the first killing frost comes precisely three months after the first katydids begin to sing. In late summer when they begin to call during the day from deep shade, frost is six weeks away. Keep your ears open and mark that calendar.

(You do know that the NWS keeps a cage of crickets, katydids and roaches to help verify their instrumentation, don’t you? Would I ever lie?}

Then we come to animals.

Many years ago, I had a gray cat named Smoky who, along with my dog Wendy, were afraid of thunder. If I saw Smoky slinking around in slow motion, or Wendy looking at me with a worried look and trembling, I knew to head to the house, for they could hear the distant rumble of the storms approaching.

Smoky was an excellent sonar unit. I would be in the yard with my telescope exploring the night sky and I would pay attention to his ears as they would home on sounds, I could not hear. If they moved in a random fashion, I ignored it. If both ears locked on something and especially of his eyes opened, I knew something had his attention. It might have been a rabbit or a person in the distance, but he never gave a false indication.

Birds will tell you the wind direction, as they usually sit facing the wind, so their feathers won’t get ruffled, as it is uncomfortable.

Many, many blackbirds covering the ground means a cold front is approaching. My piano teacher told me it meant snow, but I have found it signals a cold front instead. But how they know this is a mystery. My weather instruments will show no change in humidity, dewpoint, temperature, wind speed or direction, the barometer is steady and if there are any clouds at all, they are cirriform clouds. I see no hint of a change, except for the 100 blackbirds gacking, squealing and using my car as a privy.

In the plant world, Mimosa leaves, lilies, dandelions and clover leaves close before rain and at nightfall.

Humans may smell strange or old smells and have aches in old wounds, joints and sinuses as they react to pressure changes.

And lastly, we will discuss Wooly Worms. It is said that “the wider the brown (middle) band on a woolly bear caterpillar, the milder the Winter and vice versa.”

Is this true? I don’t know. I know I am seeing more of these little fuzzballs than I have in the past.

Another mystery, to me anyway, is I have always heard these called “Wooly Worms”. I have read numerous articles saying that Southerners call these “Wooly Bears”. I have lived here 63 years and have never heard this term used even once.

The only two bears I heard of growing up was Bear Bryant and those wooly beasts of the woods that have the largely unfounded reputation of eating sleeping bag breakfast burritos.

It could be that other sections of the South do use this term. Or it may be yet another case of someone somewhere writing this and that and it sounding “good” it was repeated often enough to be taken for fact.

The mystery continues…

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Birmingham NWS Fall 2021 Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS will be offering several ONLINE Basic Spotter Courses and a single ONLINE Advanced Spotter Course this fall. These online classes are FREE and allow individuals to complete these courses in the comfort of their own home or office.

By attending any course, which runs about 2 hours, an individual or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Spotters.

In following COVID-19 guidelines, the NWS is not conducting in-person classes at this time.

Unless you’d like to or are in need of a refresher, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however, it is required that you attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course. These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, but you may use the built-in chat feature to ask questions.

To attend the Online Spotter Class:

1. Via the schedule below, register by clicking the link
corresponding to the class you’d like to attend.
2. Select the ‘join webinar’ button on the registration page or
in your confirmation email and follow the prompts.
3. Enjoy the class and ask questions.

To avoid being hurried, give yourself at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the class to complete the above process.

The current schedule is as follows:

Basic Class Monday, October 5 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6087494923350984463
Basic Class Wednesday, October 14 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7033702744377814287
Basic Class Tuesday, October 21 at 1:00 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6582530242547858959
Basic Class Thursday, October 25 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6338615682553668367
Advanced Class Tuesday, November 1 at 6:30 PM Class Registration Link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2027999037555563791

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS, either directly via 205-664-3010 and pressing 2, online at https://www.weather.gov/bmx/submit_storm_report
or via chat or amateur radio. This knowledge helps Skywarn Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but poorly described report, which without this knowledge would be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule

A PDF of the September 20, 2018 Basic presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf

A PDF of the April 4, 2019 Advanced presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

The NWS in Norman, OK have numerous YouTube videos worth exploring at:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNorman/playlists

Other useful resources:

ABC33/40 Basic Storm Spotter Training
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_MzKUTfUKA

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 1 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOE69nsaKWE

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 2 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hT7gCCQB0

ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 3 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKHsAxNzqEM

For information on online training visit:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

Note this online course IS NOT intended to replace the courses offered by the NWS offices. The local meteorologists will know factors and variations in the area microclimate that may need to be considered in assessing the observed phenomena. Consider this online course as supplemental information.

 

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Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaves, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide.

Florida, due to its low latitude, becomes especially vulnerable to hurricanes. Since 1851, Florida has endured 31 October hurricane landfalls, nearly triple the next highest state — Louisiana, which has had eight. Also, about 60 percent of all U.S. hurricanes that made landfall after September 26 have done so in Florida. One factor being the cold fronts of Fall penetrating the Gulf and then deflecting storms towards the West coast of Florida.

Luckily after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

From 1851 – 2020 there have been 363 Tropical Storms and 217 hurricanes, 60 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable October hurricanes are:

The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as Huracán San Calixto, the Great Hurricane of the Antilles, and the 1780 Disaster, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane, which killed between 20,000 to 22, 000 people in the Lesser Antilles as it passed through from October 10 – 16, 1780. It is possible that it had winds in excess of 200 MPH when it reached Barbados.

Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolinas in 1954. Weather satellite did not yet exist, and the Hurricane Hunters were unable to observe the core of the storm until it neared land on October 15. Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with a Category 4 intensity of 130 mph.

Hurricane Wilma still holds the record as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. In 24 hours, Wilma went from a Category 1 storm on October 18 to a Category 5 storm with 185 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. She weakened to Category 4 and struck the Yucatan, then restrengthened and struck Cape Romano Florida as a Category 3 storm on October 24, 2005.

Hurricane Mitch became a Category 1 hurricane on October 24, 1998, and within 48 hours grew to Category 5 intensity, and though he weakened to Category 1 before making landfall, he became the second deadliest hurricane on record killing over 11,000, with nearly that number missing in Central America due to intense rainfall and mudslides. He would eventually reach the United States making landfall near Naples Florida on November 5.

Hurricane Michael formed near the Yucatan Peninsula on October 7, 2018, and in 72 hours grew from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 hurricane striking struck Mexico Beach Florida.

Beware of October hurricanes, for as Wilma, Mitch and Michael have demonstrated, they can experience explosive growth.

 

October Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers, they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 53.2 degrees at the beginning of the month to 42.3 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 11 hours 50 minutes on October 1 to 10 hours 51 minutes on October 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

October 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 6:32 PM
October 15 Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 6:14 PM
October 31 Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 5:56 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Virgo.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude 0.5 on Virgo, is hidden behind the Sun and is in conjunction with Mars.

He will pass between the Earth and the Sun or be in “Inferior Conjunction” on October 9 and by midmonth will reappear in the morning sky.

Mercury will reach his closest distance from the Sun or “Perihelion” on October 19.

On October 25 Mercury will reach the highest point in the morning sky or “Greatest Western Elongation. Mercury reaches greatest western elongation of 18.4 degrees from the Sun.

This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the morning sky.
Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Venus, magnitude -4.2 in Libra, shines low in southwest during twilight and sets a little after twilight’s end.

Venus will be at his greatest distance from the Sun or “Aphelion” on October 9.

She will be at her highest distance in the Western sky or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” of 47.0 degrees from the Sun on October 29.

This is the best time to view Venus since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the bright planet in the western sky after sunset.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in Pisces.

Mars is hidden in Conjunction with Sun

Dwarf Planet Ceres shines at magnitude 8.5 in Taurus, The Bull.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.8, in Capricornus, shines in the southeast to south during evening.

Saturn, magnitude +0.5 in Capricornus, shines twentieth as bright as Jupiter, which is 16° away.
They sit equally high in the south-southeast.

Saturn sets around 1 or 2 AM daylight-saving time, followed by Jupiter about an hour later.

Uranus, magnitude 5.7, in Aries, climbs high in the east by 11 or midnight.
Neptune, magnitude 7.7, in Aquarius is well up in the in the southeast by the time darkness is complete.
Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

New Moon will occur October 6. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 6:05 AM CDT or 11:05 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 7. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

This year, the nearly new moon will leave dark skies for what should be an excellent show. Best viewing will be in the early evening from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Draco but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on October 9, when she will be 225,799 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon will occur October 12.

October’s first Full Moon will occur October 20. The Moon will be directly opposite the Earth from the Sun and will be fully illuminated as seen from Earth. This phase occurs at 14:57 UTC or 9:57 AM CDT. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as the Full Hunters Moon because at this time of year the leaves are falling, and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon. This full moon is also known as the Harvest Moon. The Harvest Moon is the full moon that occurs closest to the September equinox each year.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. The Orionids is an average shower producing up to 20 meteors per hour at its peak This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet.

The full moon will be a problem this year for the Orionids. Its glare will block out all but the brightest meteors. But if you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Orion but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on October 24, when she will be 252,038 miles from Earth.

The Last Quarter Moon occurs October 28.

Southern Taurids Meteor Shower occurs October 29 & 30. The Southern Taurids is a long-running minor meteor shower producing only about 5-10 meteors per hour. This shower is, however, famous for producing a higher than normal percentage of bright fireballs. The Southern Taurids is produced by debris left behind by Comet 2P Encke. The shower runs annually from September 10 to November 20. It peaks this year on the night of the 29th and morning of the 30th.

The last quarter moon will block out the fainter meteors this year. But should not interfere with the brighter ones. Best viewing will be just after midnight from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Taurus but can appear anywhere in the sky.

This is the time of year when the rich star clouds of the Milky Way in Cygnus crosses the zenith, looking like a ghostly band overhead in the hour after nightfall is complete. The Milky Way now rises straight up from the southwest horizon, passes overhead, and runs straight down to the northeast. Later at midnight, Orion the Hunter and the stars of winter rise over the eastern horizon, reminding us to enjoy the mild weather while it is here, for this season, as all seasons, is but a fleeting moment in the never-ending waltz of time.

4521 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 22, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

If you follow manned spaceflights, October is going to be a busy month.

On October 5th the Russians will launch Soyuz MS-19 carrying three cosmonauts to the International Space Station.

Blue Origin will launch New Shepard NS-18 October 12, carrying four astronauts to space and back.

SpaceX will launch Crew Dragon-3 carrying four astronauts on October 30 to the International Space Station.

China reportedly will launch Shenzhou 13 carrying 3 Chinese astronauts to the Tianhe Space Station.

Depending on weather and technical issues, these dates change

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This month’s meeting will be on October 12 at 7PM.

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.
Hope to “see” you there Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net