ALERT NEWSLETTER – April 2020

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you and your loved ones well.

We find ourselves faced with one of the most challenging situations of modern history. We are at war with an enemy which we cannot see, and which we really have no clue as to whether we have been exposed to at some point or not. For as my Mom once explained concerning folk’s cleanliness or the lack thereof “people are nasty.”

Add to this a pollen season with its usual measure of misery and the world becomes a hypochondriac’s dream.

One almost becomes like the gent who read online that “if your heart skips more than three beats in a row, you will die”, and was of a habit of taking his pulse over and over just in case he was about to spring “the Big One.”

We go “Cough” and “achoo”. Is it the Corona virus or the sulfurous dust of a Southern Pine?

So what can we do?

We should avoid acting like a nut either by overreacting and pillaging Publix or underreacting and doing nothing. We should follow the recommended guidelines instead and maintain our distance.

If you are a hugger, refrain from hugging. If you are of the habit of getting “up close and personal” in someone’s face when you talk to them, whether innocently or not, don’t do that either. Mr. Spock’s “live long and prosper” sign can replace handshakes. Lots of folk are used to communicating by gestures anyway, especially in traffic. And, as Mom used to say “stay prayed up”, which, plague or no plague is sage advice anyway.

Together we will weather this storm together and come through to the other side.

Stay safe and stay well.

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National Weather Service Precautions For COVID-19

The National Weather Service has informed us, that out of caution to ensure that the NWS staff at each office is able to continue to support their mission to protect life and property, that the BMX office has been given direction to temporarily suspend non-essential visits (public, volunteers, tour groups, etc) to the forecast offices.

The impact to ALERT is that until further notice, any K4NWS callout or activation will be done remotely, and we will use NWSchat’s BMXEMACHAT room to coordinate communication with the forecast office.

This is similar to some office workplaces choosing to work remotely, to keep risks low, and is not a reason to panic.

As we enter the peak severe weather season for Alabama, this is a great opportunity to ensure that our home station PC and radio equipment is tested, working, and is ready in case we have an event where we can serve the NWS remotely.
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There is a new chat room on the NWSchat (government chat) server, called BMXAlert, for ALERT’s operators to privately coordinate where needed.

We can also create temporary chats in NWSchat, so I would suggest calling it K4NWSCHAT if a temporary room is needed.

However, let’s please remember that we can also use the Weather.IM BMXSPOTTERCHAT option as well, which allows us to communicate with other Skywarn spotters and those who are unable to be approved for NWSchat access.

Don’t forget, we also have DMR, which can be used to help bring us together, as well as other ham radio modes.

I’ve completed a document about NWSchat, for ALERT’s current Operational Members ONLY (who would normally respond to call-outs by going to the National Weather Service).
https://alert-alabama.org/blog/?page_id=2267

Rooms to use during callout:

Required: Don’t forget to log into the Weather.im chat, BMXSpotterChat, to receive spotter reports from non-NWSchat-eligible users!!!

Required: BMXEMAChat
This chat room houses EMA and ALERT, and is not viewable by the media. This is the primary chat room for providing the NWS with storm reports from ALERT.

Required: BMXALERT (NEW!)
This is the new ALERT-Only chat room for coordinating ham radio operations privately. It may be a good idea to use the /nick command to describe you, your callsign, and your role or location.

Optional: BMXchat
This is the chat room for all NWS partners, including the media.
This chat room’s messages are automatically copied/rebroadcast into BMXEMAchat, so it isn’t necessary to log in here, unless there’s someone in particular you are trying to reach.

Optional: Other Chats
We have access to chats nationwide, in case you need to relate a report to a different office, are traveling, or any other valid NWS purpose.

Regards,
Casey Benefield, NZ2O
Public Information

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Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s is March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

Snowfall is still possible though, as April 3, 1987’s 5 inches proves. The latest trace of snow was April 25, 1910.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

North Atlantic Tropical activity remains at a minimum. From 1851 to 2019 there has never been a Hurricane and only two Tropical Storms – Ana in 2003 and Arlene in 2017 which affected only shipping.

AccuWeather has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Their outlook is calling for an above average season with fourteen to eighteen tropical storms during the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. Of those storms, seven to nine are forecast to become hurricanes; and two to four are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes.

In a normal year, there are around twelve storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.

Colorado State University will issue its outlook in April and NOAA’s forecast is due at the end of May.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2018, 8956 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2018, 1772 deaths and as of 2013, 29,090 injuries.

As of 2017, Oklahoma leads the nation in killer violent tornados, having had 64, followed by Iowa with 54, Texas with 53, Kansas with 48 and Alabama 44.

As of 2015, Alabama ranks fourth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. They along with Illinois belong to the “over 400 club” having had over 400 tornadoes since 1950.

As of 2017 Alabama leads the nation in F5 & EF5 tornadoes, having had 9, followed by Oklahoma and Kansas with 8, and two way tie for third between Iowa and Texas with 6.

As of 2016 Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths with 633, followed by Texas with 552 and Mississippi with 477.

The counties most likely to be struck by violent EF5 tornadoes are Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, Madison and Marion, all of which have been struck three times.

Tuscaloosa has been stuck by four F4 & EF4 tornadoes including 1932, 1975, 2000 & 2011.

The suburbs of Birmingham, including Oak Grove, Pleasant Grove, McDonald Chapel and Smithfield have been struck by two F4 & EF4 tornadoes in 1956 & 2011 and by two F5 tornadoes in 1977 & 1998.

My Grandfather, who passed away in 1958, once said “someday a big tornado is going to go right up Jones Valley and tear everything up”.

Indeed there is no logical or climatological reason why and an EF4 or EF5 tornado hasn’t struck or won’t strike the densely populated areas of Birmingham, including the high rises of downtown.

Whether it is due to “Divine Providence” or “random chance” otherwise known as “luck”, Birmingham has been spared.

When will that luck run out?

Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:

April 18, 1953 F3 Lee & Russell County 6 dead 195 injured
April 18, 1953 F3 Shelby County 8 dead 495 injured
April 15, 1956 F4 Jefferson County 25 dead 200 injured “McDonald Chapel Tornado”
April 18, 1969 F4 Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties 2 dead 15 injured

April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” or produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949. The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado. The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day. Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio. The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “The Day Of 100 Tornadoes”.

April 3, 1974 F5 Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured
April 3, 1974 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured
April 3, 1974 F5 Limestone-Madison 28 dead 260 injured
April 4, 1977 F5 Jefferson County 22 dead 130 injured “Smithfield Tornado”
April 1, 1998 F3 Russell County 2 dead 23 injured
April 8, 1998 F5 Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured “Oak Grove Tornado”

April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,
with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada. April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes. Of 348
people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non-tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.

Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.

April 27, 2011 F5 Marion County 18 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Marion County 7 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured
April 3, 2012 F2 Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured
April 28, 2014 F3 Limestone County 1 dead 30 injured

Always beware of the storms of April.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 61.1 degrees at the beginning of the month to 71.3 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 12 hours 32 minutes on April 1 to 13 hours 29 minutes on April 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

April 1 Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:08 PM
April 15 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:18 PM
April 30 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:29 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +0.0, is very low in the dawn.

Venus, magnitude –4.5, in western Taurus under the Pleiades, is the big, bright white “Evening Star” blazing high in the west during and after dusk. Venus doesn’t set until a good 2½ hours after complete dark.

Above Venus is the Pleiades Star Cluster, drawing closer to Venus by about 1° per day. On Friday evening April 3rd, Venus is right in the Pleiades’ left edge.

In a telescope, Venus is a trace less than half lit. She will continue to enlarge in size and wane in phase and will become a dramatically thin crescent in late May.

Not surprisingly, many people online have expressed concern over this “strange hovering ‘UFO’”.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the Constellation Virgo.

Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, magnitudes, +0.8, – 2.1, and +0.7, respectively, are grouped low in the southeast in Sagittarius as dawn begins. Jupiter is by far the brightest and catches your eye first. Saturn is to the lower left of Jupiter and Mars is near Saturn.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, in southwestern Aries, is disappearing in the western evening twilight and will dip below the horizon.

Uranus will pass directly behind the Sun on April 26.

Neptune is hidden in deep in the glow of sunrise.

4141 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 19, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

The Moon will be the closest to the Earth or Perigee on April 7, when she is 221,772 miles from the Earth.

Aprils Full Moon will at 9:35 CDT April 7 or 2:35 UTC on April 8

This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as the Full Pink Moon because it marked the appearance of the moss pink, or wild ground phlox, which is one of the first spring flowers. This moon has also been known as the Sprouting Grass Moon, the Growing Moon, and the Egg Moon. Many coastal tribes called it the Full Fish Moon because this was the time that the shad swam upstream to spawn.

This is also the third of four Supermoons for 2020. The Moon will be at its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

The Moon will be the farthest distance from the Earth or Apogee on April 20, when she is 252,564. miles from the Earth

New Moon will occur at 9:27 CDT April 22 or 2:27 UTC on April 23.

The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 02:27 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April 16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

The nearly new moon will ensure dark skies for what should be a good show this year. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Lyra, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Evenings in early April offer an excellent opportunity to view the zodiacal light. Zodiacal light is a faint, roughly triangular whitish glow seen in the night sky which appears to extend up from the vicinity of the sun along the ecliptical plane. It is caused by sunlight scattered by space dust in the orbital plane of the Earth.

From the Northern Hemisphere, early spring is the best time of year to observe this elusive glow after sunset. It appears slightly fainter than the Milky Way, so you’ll need a clear moonless sky and an observing site located far from the city. Look for the cone-shaped glow, which points nearly straight up from the western horizon, after the last vestiges of twilight have faded away.

This is the time of year when the dim Little Dipper – Ursa Minor – juts to the right from the North Star, Polaris, which is the end of the Little Dipper’s handle, during late evening. The much brighter Big Dipper curls over high above it, “dumping water” into it. They do the reverse in the fall.

Now that it’s spring, the signature fall-and-winter constellation Cassiopeia is retreating down after dark. But for mid-northern latitudes Cassiopeia is circumpolar, never going away completely. Look for it fairly low in the north-northwest these evenings. It’s standing nearly on end.

One item of note is Comet C/2019 Y4 or known by its nickname, Comet Atlas. Comet Atlas is currently near Mars’ orbit and is moving inbound towards the Sun. It is possible that it could shine as brightly as a crescent moon in May.

If it keeps going at the rate it is increasing brightness, it could reach a naked eye visibility, magnitude +5, by May 1. Afterwards, its peak brightness is estimated to be between +2 to -6.

For comparison, Venus is at a visual magnitude of -4.48.

As a result, ATLAS could potentially be viewed with a trusty pair of binoculars or even with the naked eye. The last time a comet was visible to the naked eye was in 1997, when comet Hale-Bopp gave sky enthusiasts quite the treat for around 18 months.

Or, it could break apart and be a cosmic dud.

Only Time will tell.

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This month’s meeting will be on April 14 at 7PM via Zoom.

The room is scheduled for 6:30PM.

You won’t need a Zoom account to join on a PC, but it is highly recommend joining on PC.

Join: Click here 
https://meetingsamer9.webex.com/meetingsamer9/j.php?MTID=m3a58937a8c515f275e4bc7a71671e3eb 

You can also download and install the Cisco WebEx app on your mobile phone.

Or Telephone Dial:
408-418-9388
Use Meeting ID: 292 469 262
Meeting Password: 2020

I hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/