ALERT NEWSLETTER – October 2019

Hi everyone and welcome to the October ALERT Newsletter.

Fall has arrived and with it we can look forward to the changing of the fall leaves, the occasional nip in the air, and the Hobgoblins that will visit us at the end of the month.

October is a fun time of the year, usually being not too hot and not too cold – the “Goldilocks” of seasons.

It is a time to enjoy fall football, the baseball playoffs and the last outdoor adventures of the year.

Here is hoping that you enjoy the days that this season brings, and the pretty weather October brings. letting you rest before the storms of Fall.

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Birmingham NWS Fall 2019 Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS office will present several online Basic Spotter Courses and a single Advanced Spotter Course this fall. These online classes allow individuals to complete the course(s) in the comfort of their own home or office with the use of https://www.join.me/ meeting site.

By attending any course, which runs about 2 hours, individuals or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Spotters.

Unless you are in need of or just want to attend a refresher Course, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however it is required you to attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course.

These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, and unmuted when applicable (e.g., for questions); or, you can use the built-in chat feature.

The current schedule is as follows:

Basic Class Tuesday, October 1 at 1:00 PM Online Use Session Code 311-943-999
Basic Class Thursday, October 3 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 450-865-396
Basic Class Tuesday, October 8 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 207-142-069
Basic Class Thursday, October 17 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 487-062-501
Basic Class Thursday, October 24 at 1:00 PM Online Use Session Code 319-671-009
Basic Class Monday, October 28 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 327-797-522
Advanced Class Tuesday, November 7 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 763-403-007

Enter the session code at https://www.join.me/

There will be three live Basic Classes this fall:

Basic Class Monday, September 30 at 6:00 PM Elmore County Courthouse
100 E Commerce Street
Wetumpka, AL
Basic Class Tuesday, October 15 at 6:00 PM Southern /union State Community
College, Building 8
1701 Lafayette Parkway
Opelika, AL
Basic Class Tuesday, October 22 at 6:00 PM Russell County EMA
7:00 PM Eastern Operations Center
311 Pretiss Drive
Phenix City, AL

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS, either directly via the1-800-856-0758 number, online at https://www.weather.gov/bmx/submit_storm_report
or via chat or amateur radio. This knowledge helps Skywarn Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but, poorly described report, which without this knowledge would be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule

A PDF of the September 20, 2018 Basic presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf

A PDF of the April 4, 2019 Advanced presentation may be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

For information on classes being held by the Huntsville NWS office visit: https://www.weather.gov/hun/skywarn

For information on classes being held by the Mobile NWS office visit:
https://www.weather.gov/mob/spotter_training

For information on classes being held by the Tallahassee NWS office visit:
https://www.weather.gov/tae/taeskywarn

There are no reasons other than distance to why you can’t attend these classes if you wish. I attended an aviation weather seminar strictly out of curiosity and to gain knowledge, which even though hopefully I will never pilot a plane, the knowledge gain has proven very useful.

Other useful resources:

ABC33/40 Basic Storm Spotter Training
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_MzKUTfUKA
ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 1 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOE69nsaKWE
ABC 33/40 Storm Spotter Extreme Part 2 – April 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hT7gCCQB0

For information on online training visit:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

Note this online course IS NOT intended to replace the courses offered by the NWS offices. The local meteorologists will know factors and variations in the area microclimate that may need to be considered in assessing the observed phenomena. Consider this online course as supplemental information.

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Predicting VHF & UHF Band Openings

One cool October evening I was soldering some equipment listening to what I assumed was a new FM radio station at the far end of the FM band, where the public broadcasting, university and religious stations seem to be relegated.

“and you too can receive this commemorative 10 CD set of Slim Whitman’s Best of Bluegrass Hip-hop for your generous donation of $100 supporting you Oklahoma Public Radio Stations.”

Well, maybe I don’t remember the actual offer, but, I do remember it was about as tempting, and, I do remember being tempted to call and say “your signal has made it into Alabama”, but, being occupied with destroying an innocent radio I resisted that urge.

The FM band or at least the lower portion of the 20 MHz wide band was open, which was unknown to most people, because most people don’t check the “empty” frequencies between the local stations for unusual activity.

If you want to be an “expert” on a particular band, whether its’s two meters, 440, an HF band or a broadcast band, the way to do this is to listen for a week or so to the entire band or the band segment you are “specializing” in and identify and log every station and signal that you consistently hear, whether it’s a broadcast station or repeater. This way, when a strange signal appears you know that something is afoot.

VHF and UHF band openings, with the exception of meteor scatter, with signals being reflected off of meteor ion trails left as they (hopefully) streak to their doom and the fluttery signals being bounced off of the aurora (which sound like someone talking while rapidly shaking their heads back and forth) the majority of band openings are cause by “tropospheric ducting”, caused by cold or cool air being overlaid by warmer air.

There are four main situations that will lead to this scenario.

The first is caused by the cold outflow of thunderstorms or clusters of thunderstorms striking the ground and undercutting the surrounding warm air. On radar this will appear as a line or wave expanding from the storms, like a shock wave, and will travel far from the storm, often continuing after the storm which caused this “gust front” has long disappeared.

This line, which acts like a miniature cold front, can ram into other storms causing them to flare, initiate new storms, pass unnoticeably or cause sudden gusty weather. If it is caused by an entire line of storms venting simultaneously, the wind can intensify, like wind trapped between buildings forming a “gravity wave” and cause 80 MPH winds to wreak havoc hundreds of miles away, even though the skies there are perfectly clear.

From a radio point of view these can cause localized band openings on VHF and UHF and are highly unpredictable, but, are created by conditions detectable by NOAA weather radar.

A much more frequent scenario is when a strong cold front passes through. Cold fronts do not approach like a wall of cold air, but, rather undercuts the warm air mass it is invading, like a wave pushing in. Along the axis of the cold front this cold air pushing the warm air above it can cause a band opening along the length of the cold front.

This posed a problem in the Birmingham and Huntsville areas in the 1970’s and 1980’s as both cities had repeaters on 146.940 MHz and both were the respective areas emergency ARES or Skywarn frequencies and would unintentionally interfere with each other during severe weather situations if the band opened up.

Few repeaters in the 1970’s and 80’s had PL tones and fewer radios had the capability to encode the transmission if the repeater did have this capability. In fact “toning” a repeater was often misunderstood as an act of “snobbery” indicating to some that it was a “closed repeater” where “me, my friends Roscoe, Bubba and our kinfolk are the only ones welcome”. To be honest, there were repeaters back then where this “left hand of fellowship” attitude would have been a fair assessment.

The “34 94 problem” was cured when the 88 repeater, then called the “28 88 repeater” was donated the Birmingham Amateur Radio Club and became Birmingham’s emergency repeater and the old 34 94 repeaters frequency was changed to 145.410 MHz, which is now the K4DSO D-Star repeater.

Cold fronts can often be detected weather radar as a line of showers or thunderstorms along the actual front, and this may tip you off that a band opening may occur.

The most reliable band opening occurs, unless the atmosphere is turbulent and being churning up, is every morning at dawn. As dawn approaches the Sun’s rays will begin reaching and warming the upper layers of the atmosphere. This warming will reach lower and lower until finally reaching ground level. During this time when warm air is overlaying colder air a natural band opening will occur. Sometimes this opening will be weak, short-lived and barely noticeable; sometimes it will be very strong and may last until midday.

This is why you may hear distant repeaters in the morning. One frequent visitor is the W4BIT repeater on 146.880 MHz (PL 100.0 Hz) in Kennehoochee Georgia.

These early morning band openings, if occurring when a frigid air mass is in place, can extend upward reaching optical wavelengths letting one see objects beyond the horizon.

In the case of optics this is referred to as a “superior mirage”.

There are two basic types of mirages, an “inferior mirage” and a “superior mirage”.

These terms have nothing to with the quality of the mirage, but, rather which direction a light ray is bent.

An inferior mirage occurs due to the sharp temperature difference between warm or hot air at a low level and cool or cold air at a higher level, such as hot desert sand or road pavement beneath cooler air. This arrangement will bend light rays slightly upward making objects at higher altitudes appear beneath a lower object, for instance the blue of the sky appearing in the middle of a road. The image is distorted due to turbulence and usually inverted, so that it appears like a pool of water.

A superior mirage occurs when cold air is overlaid or trapped by warm air, which is a temperature inversion. In this case the light rays are bent downward, and the mirage appears above the true object. In some cases if the boundary between cold and warm air is sharp enough the light can be reflected off the boundary, back toward the ground, and reflected by the ground towards the boundary, or become trapped between layers of air, and follow the curvature of the earth making far distant objects appear on the horizon. Some believe this is how the Norsemen knew that Greenland existed and how once reaching Greenland they knew another larger landmass lay farther to the west, now known as North America.

I’ve seen this once myself, when the temperature in Birmingham was in the low teens. The mountains toward Blount County had an exact reflection, albeit upside down hovering above them.

At midday VHF/UHF radio range decreases. This was explained to me through the years that as temperature increased; the air molecules absorbed the signal. Maybe this is true. But, I also wondered since warm air is less dense than cool air, why a warmer thinner atmosphere would absorb more signals than a cooler denser, higher humidity atmosphere?

Another possibility is that the signal is being bent skyward by the inferior mirage effect, just as visible light is. In this case, if you are transmitting a 50 watt signal, and 30 watts of it are being bent skyward, then only 20 watts is hitting your target area.

Then factor in the same distortion you see when you see objects shimmering in the heat. If the radio signal is subject to the same effect, then your remaining 20 watts is a signal being distorted and “blurred” or scattered by the heat, causing even less usable signal at the repeater site.

Another atmospheric effect is that the atmosphere near the horizon acts like a lens and bends light and radio signals over the horizon. This sometimes will cause the silhouette of distant mountains to be seen in front of the setting sun. With radio signals the effect is that the “radio horizon” is 15 % farther than the geographic horizon.

Another though weaker band opening may occur after sunset as the hot / warm air lifts from the surface and rises as a warm layer overlying the now cooler surface air it leaves behind. On radar
this may a appear as a “radar bloom” where the it appears that precipitation forms around the radar site and expands in all directions like a time lapse of a rose blooming, as bugs, birds, bats and humidity at ground level are detected with increasing range.

These radar returns are most likely during the spring and fall seasons. While they don’t definitively betray a band openings presence, they do provide the hint that conditions are favorable for them.
Remember that NOAA weather radar is sensitive enough to pick up tiny flying bags of water also known as bugs. In some locations it is sensitive enough to pick up what an alien in a movie described as “ugly bags of water”, namely us.

I prefer the more optimistic outlook of “If you like water, you like 60% of me already.”

As you can see, band openings on VHF, UHF and beyond may be more frequent that one imagines.
Sometimes a band may seem “dead” when in fact it is wide open, just no one is transmitting.

But, can you tune to the “empty frequencies” that may suddenly become “filled”?

At the risk of sounding like an “old goat”, learning how to program your radio manually has some distinct advantages over using programs such as CHIRP or having a buddy do it for you…

The disadvantage of using Chirp and basing the programming on online repeater databases is that no matter how recently the database has been updated, it is already out of date. Repeaters can switch PL tones, temporarily go off the air, switch from analog to digital or from digital to analog, switch from one form of digital to another, or a frequency pair could be listed that hasn’t been used for years, but, the owner won’t relinquish the frequencies so the Repeater Council can reallocate them to someone else, since the frequency availability is very limited and pairs are not easily obtained.

As to having a buddy program your radio for you, he might, due to differences in geography be able to hit repeaters you won’t be able to reach, and vice versa. You might be able to easily hit the Podunk repeater, where he can’t even hear it since Walton’s Mountain is in the way, and as such he doesn’t include it when programming your radio.

So, as painful as it may be to learn and try, try to learn how to program your radios.

It’s exceedingly useful during emergencies and on trips, and will give you RF flexibility that many will never realize and a DX advantage.

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Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaves, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And, it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but, leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide.

Florida, due to its low latitude, becomes especially vulnerable to hurricanes. Since 1851, Florida has endured 31 October hurricane landfalls, nearly triple the next highest state — Louisiana, which has had eight. Also, about 60 percent of all U.S. hurricanes that made landfall after September 26 have done so in Florida. One factor being the cold fronts of Fall penetrating the Gulf and then deflecting storms towards the West coast of Florida.

Luckily after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

From 1851 – 2018 there have been 340 Tropical Storms and 208 hurricanes, 57 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable October hurricanes are:

The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as Huracán San Calixto, the Great Hurricane of the Antilles, and the 1780 Disaster, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane, which killed between 20,000 to 22, 000 people in the Lesser Antilles as it passed through from October 10 – 16, 1780. It is possible that it had winds in excess of 200 MPH when it reached Barbados.

Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolinas in 1954. Weather satellite did not yet exist and the Hurricane Hunters were unable to observe the core of the storm until it neared land on October 15. Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with a Category 4 intensity of 130 mph.

Hurricane Wilma still holds the record as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. In 24 hours Wilma went from a Category 1 storm on October 18 to a Category 5 storm with 185 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. She weakened to Category 4 and struck the Yucatan, then restrengthened and struck Cape Romano Florida as a Category 3 storm on October 24, 2005.

Hurricane Mitch became a Category 1 hurricane on October 24, 1998 and within 48 hours grew to Category 5 intensity, and though he weakened to Category 1 before making landfall, he became the second deadliest hurricane on record killing over 11,000, with nearly that number missing in Central America due to intense rainfall and mudslides. He would eventually reach the United States making landfall near Naples Florida on November 5.

Hurricane Michael formed near the Yucatan Peninsula on October 7, 2018 and in 72 hours grew from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 hurricane striking struck Mexico Beach Florida.

Beware of October hurricanes, for as Wilma, Mitch and Michael have demonstrated, they can experience explosive growth.

October Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 53.2 degrees at the beginning of the month to 42.3 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 11 hours 50 minutes on October 1 to 10 hours 51 minutes on October 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

October 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 6:32 PM
October 15 Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 6:14 PM
October 31 Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 5:56 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is hidden by the Sun at the beginning of the month. But, then moves into the evening sky. On October 20 He will reach his highest elevation above the western horizon or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” of 24.6 degrees from the Sun.

This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

Venus is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Mars is also hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.0, between the feet of Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer, is a white dot low in the southwest as twilight fades away.
Saturn, magnitude +0.5, low over the Sagittarius Teapot. Below Saturn is the handle of the Sagittarius Teapot. Barely above it is the dimmer, smaller bowl of the Sagittarius Teaspoon.
Uranus, magnitude 5.7, in Aries, is well up in the east by 10 PM CST. It’s highest in the south around 2 AM.

The blue-green planet will be at its closest approach to Earth or “Opposition” on October 27 and his face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long.

This is the best time to view Uranus, but, due to its distance, it will only appear as a tiny blue-green dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius, is in the southeast after dark and highest in the south around 11 PM.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 8. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

The first quarter moon will set shortly after midnight leaving fairly dark skies for observing. Best viewing will be in the early evening from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Draco, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on October 10, when she will be 252,215 miles from Earth.

October’s Full Moon will occur October 13. The Moon will be directly opposite the Earth from the Sun and will be fully illuminated as seen from Earth. This phase occurs at 21:09 UTC or 4:09 AM CDT. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as the Full Hunters Moon because at this time of year the leaves are falling and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. The Orionids is an average shower producing up to 20 meteors per hour at its peak This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet. The crescent moon will set early in the evening leaving dark skies for what should be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Orion, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on October 26, when she will be 224,511 miles from Earth.

New Moon will occur October 28. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 9:39 CDT or 3:39 UTC which in Greenwich England is the 29th. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere

This is the time of year when the rich star clouds of the Milky Way in Cygnus crosses the zenith, looking like a ghostly band overhead in the hour after nightfall is complete. The Milky Way now rises straight up from the southwest horizon, passes overhead, and runs straight down to the northeast. Later at midnight, Orion the Hunter and the stars of winter rise over the eastern horizon, reminding us to enjoy the mild weather while it is here, for this season, as all seasons, is but a fleeting moment in the never ending waltz of time.

4057 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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If you know anyone who is interested in getting into ham radio or upgrading, the next Volunteer Examination FCC test session will be 2:00 PM Sunday, October 6 at SCARC’s meeting site in Pelham. For more information visit https://aragroup.org/ for details.

This month’s meeting will be on October 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The NEW teleconference number is 1-866-231-8384 & and the conference code is
2056215645#.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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