ALERT NEWSLETTER – July 2019

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way through the heat of Summer.

Our next ALERT meeting will be July 9, when our new Officers take office. Let’s make sure to support, help and encourage them as they steer ALERT into the future.

Dues time also arrives with the July meeting.

So join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so I will remain current.

See you there!

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Storm Spotting vs Storm Chasing

One sunny day in 1943, on a small atoll in the Solomon Islands, a fisherman sat on a pier mending his nets. Suddenly his attention was captured by the whine of propellers and he looked up and saw a formation of aircraft passing over.

Rushing to his radio shack he looked at charts to determine if it was American, British or Japanese aircraft and by comparing the size of the image with the size of the aircraft he had seen he estimated the aircrafts approximate altitude.

He then flipped a switch and the tubes of an HF radio began glowing. Reaching for the microphone he called the base taking the reports in Port Moresby, New Guinea and said “This is Red Robin, Red Robin, eight Mitsubishi bombers at 11,000 feet moving Northeast, over.”

The report was acknowledged and he powered down his radio and after getting a drink of water he headed back to the pier and his nets, keeping an eye on the horizon beyond the palm lined beach and an ear towards the sky.

The fisherman was just one of dozens of people, average civilians, scattered across the Southwestern Pacific islands, called Coast Watchers. Their only job was to report when they spotted enemy ships passing by or enemy planes flying overhead. They were not interceptors, they were spotters only.

Though the circumstances and targets are certainly different, they almost could be thought of as the ancestors of the Storm Spotters that you see today.

Storm Spotters play a vital part in the NWS storm warning process by providing “ground truth” to confirm what the meteorologists are seeing on radar and in some cases spotting severe storm activity when the radar shows nothing overly unusual.
Radar, for its tremendous capabilities is blind to ground level activity beyond the radio horizon. Meteorologists can see a suspicious storm, but what is really happening beneath that storm?

Many situations can affect and limit radar capability.

For instance radar returns can be blocked or shadowed by physical obstructions.

If one looks at Birmingham Nexrad you may occasionally see a blank area or spike on the radar display extending to the Northeast of the radar site at close to a 40 degree radial.

According to a 2014 NBC13 report, there is a company in Calera, Lhoist North America, which is a major supplier of lime, limestone and clay products. It reportedly began a stockpile mound or dump near the Waterford community and it grew and it kept growing, and growing and growing, until it has grown tall enough to interfere with the NWS radar.

Other Nexrad sites have similar shadowing due to buildings and close mountain ranges. Each site has its own quirks and peculiarities.

Physical distance is another major factor.

The farther the radar is from the storm, the higher the radar beam, which travels in a straight line, strikes the storm. The radar in Calera for instance, may show a line of very heavy thunderstorms on the Alabama – Mississippi line, and as the line grows closer to the radar site the radar shows less and less precipitation, the line passes over with nothing remarkable happening and then as it passes farther from the radar site it begins looking just as ominous as it approaches the Georgia line as it did when exiting Mississippi, as the radar is once again scanning the midlevel of the storms

Did the storm really die down and then pulse back up? Depending on the time of day and other factors, sometimes yes. Or it may be the precipitation at the midlevel of the storm was much heavier than the lower levels which by the time it reached ground level had largely evaporated.

This is why meteorologists look at radar returns from other radar sites and at different angles for a more accurate idea as to what is really going on.

There is a saying that “the best radar is the closest radar”. But, some areas have no close radar to switch to. For instance in Southwest Alabama an area generally around Choctaw, Clarke and Marengo county is covered by radar from Birmingham, Columbus, Jackson and Mobile. But, none of them are close enough to show what is happening near the ground. It is a low level blind spot.

This is why having eyes on the ground is vital. By actually seeing what is occurring and reporting this to the NWS it increases warning lead time, which is potentially lifesaving.

Storm Spotters may observe from their homes or workplace. They may report as they are travelling to or from work. In some cases they may preposition themselves to get a better DISTANT view of the storm to describe the storm structure.

But, Storm Spotters DO NOT CHASE storms.

There is a difference between storm spotting, which helps the NWS mission and amateur storm chasing, which does not.

The NWS offices regularly train Storm Spotters in classes, both in person and online.

They do NOT train, certify, encourage or endorse storm chasing and do not want their name associated with amateur storm chasers, their actions or the consequences of those actions.
Storm chasing in the Southeast is extremely difficult as compared to the Midwest, where roads are straighter, horizons are not obstructed by trees and the population density is much more spread out.

If you try to chase a storm in Alabama, you can easily wreck your or someone else’s car, strike someone or since you literally can’t see the storm for the trees, can easily misjudge and be at the wrong place at the right time.

I know this from personal experience, and after having light wires arcing and snapping above me and me hiding behind a building wondering if the aluminum siding being torn off would decapitate me, I never vowed never to be such a dimwit again.

Also, I had to pray about it a little, for when young teenage Mark told his mother “I want to be a ham operator” she said “that’s fine as long as you promise to never go chasing a tornado”, to which I agreed. I wasn’t lying…well, maybe I was, I don’t know. At any rate I quit doing it 16 years ago.

Keep in mind that most Alabama tornadoes, unlike the Midwest variety, are rain wrapped and obscured.

The Tuscaloosa portion of the April 27, 2011 EF4 Tuscaloosa/Jefferson County tornado was unique in that it was not rain wrapped as it tore through that area. Horrible as it was, it was also strangely picturesque. By the time it reached the Birmingham suburbs, it was an ugly rain wrapped mass of clouds.

Perhaps this is why even though the tornado was shown live nationwide as it swept through Jefferson County; Jefferson County is seldom mentioned when retrospectives are shown. I watched an entire network program concerning the April 27 tornadoes and watched as they discussed in detail Tuscaloosa and its recovery and I waited for them to move on to the Jefferson County devastation and recovery. They rolled the credits instead. It is as if they thought the storm dissipated, when in fact it continued wreaking havoc flattening communities for miles beyond.

If you choose to chase storms, it’s on your own responsibility. Again do not associate the NWS name with your actions or their consequences.

They don’t need people plastering “Official NWS Storm Chase Vehicle” on their light bar equipped, porcupine looking SUV, or folk bragging online “Certified NWS storm chaser here”. As there is no such animal, and it puts the NWS’s reputation and credibility in jeopardy.

And, if you tell the news media “I’m a NWS certified Storm Chaser”, they know better, and your credibility with them just went down the tubes.

On a related note, there is a trend in some areas, very isolated I hope, of EMCOMM groups sporting shiny badges and “security” type uniforms.

While I certainly see nothing wrong with a group having unique team clothing, when it looks “official” or “police like”, as if they have some sort of authority, it sends the wrong message and can cause confusion and harm.

In the past, and I’ve been in this a long time, I have encountered and dealt with a few EMCOMM folk who tried to exercise authority they did not have and them in ordinary clothes. Let them try it with a badge and uniform and it could easily damage trust, confidence and relationships between organizations that have taken years, if not decades to build. Sometimes it doesn’t very much for this to happen, either.

Or, perhaps even worse, people might think they really ARE Security Officers and expect them to act in that capacity, since they appear to be wearing the uniform. “’Security Officer stands by while looters fight over silver urn’. ‘I told the security guard over there that they were taking Gramma’s ashes and he just stood there mumbling about ham and radio. Guess he was too busy thinking about ham sandwiches to be bothered to help us.’ ‘More details to follow on WKRP Action News.’”

This isn’t far a fetched idea either. I could tell you some stories.

This is why we really don’t need “Sergeant Skywarns” running around wreaking havoc any more than the NWS needs “official storm chasers” doing so. The NWS needs storm spotters to report storms and ALERT needs operators to take those storm spotters reports.

When the fall sessions resume consider attending an NWS storm spotter class near you and become a Skywarn Storm Spotter.

For information on Alabama County Warning Area training and classes see:

Birmingham https://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule
Mobile https://www.weather.gov/mob/skywarn
Huntsville https://www.weather.gov/hun/skywarn
Tallahassee https://www.weather.gov/tae/taeskywarn

For the current Birmingham’s presentations see:

https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

I also invite you to attend the next ALERT meeting and learn about who we are and what we do.

Are you willing to step up to the challenge and be a part of the action?

The NWS and ALERT needs YOU!

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Is Two Meters In Jeopardy?

Currently on Ham Radio social media groups there is an outcry due to a French proposal at the recent World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 (WRC-23) held in Prague, Czech Republic, to reassign the 144 to 146 MHz Amateur Band as a primary Aeronautical Mobile Service allocation in ITU Region 1 which covers Africa and Europe.

Of the countries represented only Germany voiced opposition.

The International Amateur Radio Union (IARU), which was represented at the Prague meeting, expressed “grave concern” to any proposal that would include 144 – 146 MHz in the proposed Aeronautical Mobile Services agenda item.

Currently the 144 – 146 MHz band is allocated globally to the Amateur and Amateur Satellite services on a primary basis, and is the only globally harmonized Amateur Radio VHF band. Other bands are shared or may be included in only certain ITU regions. For instance there is a 4 Meter Amateur radio allocation in ITU Region 1, but, not ITU Region 2 where we are located. British Amateurs may use 70.0 to 70.5 MHz.

The proposal will be carried forward to the higher-level CEPT Conference Preparatory Group (CPG) meeting in August, and the IARU is expected to brief member-societies, requesting that they discuss the French proposal with their governments in advance of the August CEPT-CPG meeting.

What does this mean for the US 144 – 148 MHz band? Nothing, for right now, for it only covers Europe and Africa.

The potential problem that may arise in the future is that are entities in the US competing for spectrum space that may also eye the band and toy with the idea that since it is underused in the US they may try the same thing.

What can we do about this?

Well, the current knee jerk reaction of “let’s sign an online petition and let them know what we feel” is useless. The ITU Region 1 inhabitants really don’t care what ITU region 2 hams think. It’s like Lithuanian hams sending a petition to the FCC to reinstate code testing for American hams. It’s not their chunk of the globe to be worrying with and so they really don’t care what they may think.

If it were proposed in the US, hopefully it would raise a howl and protest. But, until then there is definitely something we can do to protect our spectrum.

What we can do is USE the frequencies we have. Whether you prefer SSB, CW, FM, Digital Modes, AM or Spark Gap, get on the air, use your equipment and quit carping that “ham radio is dying” and about newcomers not having to “pass test I did” and that “people don’t know squat anymore”. Encourage people, don’t discourage them. Mentor them. Be a force for good for heaven’s sake.

Throw your call out and talk to people. If you get no response try again at another time. Eventually you will get someone. Be friendly. Be approachable and inclusive. Don’t be an old Fuddy Duddy, talk to and encourage the new hams. Make them know they are welcomed.

From the 1980’s to 2000’s there was an informal group affectionately called the “Nut Net”. It was not really a net, as such, it was just an online haunt of operators young and the young at heart that would get on, talking to each other, carrying on and aggravating each other in friendly ways and just plain having fun.

The Old Fudds hated us, threatened to “turn you over to the FCC”, “did you know the repeater owner has a tape of every QSO on here”, etc, etc. Which I wish was true, so I could listen to those days. Thing is, we weren’t doing anything wrong, morally or legally. We were just having fun, as opposed to discussing politics, carbuncles and the general sorry state of things, especially “these new hams, the bunch of CBers, they all are.”

We were young, and we acted like it. The Nuts of The Nut Net eventually became BARC, SCARC and ALERT Presidents and Officers.

So, as an official alumnus of the Nut Net, I recommend folk get on the air, started it again, and have some fun. If old goats complain, let them. They are going to anyway, so why not ham it up?!

Maybe it will spread and start a nationwide trend and in doing so, help preserve our RF haunts and stomping grounds. If nothing else, you will have fun!

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

From 1851 to 2018 there have been 120 Tropical Storms and 57 Hurricanes, 25 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, Mercury is fading into the sunset. He will fade from magnitude 0.8 at the beginning of the month from magnitude to 1.5 on July 6. He will then pass from view crossing between the Earth and Sun at “Inferior Conjunction” on July 21.

Venus is very low in the bright dawn, just above the east-northeast horizon about 20 or 30 minutes before sunrise.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 4, when she will be 94.5 million miles from our home star.

Mars (magnitude 1.8 in Capricornus) is low in the west-northwest as twilight fades.

Jupiter (magnitude –2.6, in southern Ophiuchus) is the white point glaring in the south-southeast as the stars come out. Jupiter is highest in the south by about 11 or midnight, with the red star Antares to his lower right.

Saturn (magnitude +0.1, in Sagittarius) is the steady, pale yellowish “star” low in the southeast after dark

The ringed planet will be at its closest approach to Earth, or “Opposition” on July 9. His face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. A medium-sized or larger telescope will allow you to see Saturn’s rings and a few of its brightest moons.

Saturn will pass just north of the Moon on July 16 at 8:27 PM.

Uranus (magnitude 5.8, in Aries) is low in the east just before the first sign of dawn.

Neptune (magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius) is well up in the southeast before dawn.

New Moon will occur 2:16 PM CDT July 2 or 19:16 UTC July 2. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

On July 2 there will be a Total Solar Eclipse visible in parts of the Southern Pacific Ocean, central Chile, and central Argentina.

The Moon will pass just North of the Beehive Star Cluster at 4:02 AM CDT or 9:02 UTC, July 4.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 4, when she will be 226,010 miles from Earth.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 16 at 4:38 PM CDT or 21:38 UTC and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

On July 16 there will be a Partial Lunar Eclipse. A partial lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth’s partial shadow, or penumbra, and only a portion of it passes through the darkest shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse a part of the Moon will darken as it moves through the Earth’s shadow. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of Europe, Africa, central Asia, and the Indian Ocean.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 20, when she will be 251,953 miles from Earth,

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The waning crescent moon will not be too much of a problem this year. The skies should be dark enough for what could be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

4009 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 27, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

By the way…

On June 22nd at 21:25 UTC or 4:25 PM CDT, a small asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere and exploded south of Puerto Rico. Airwaves recorded by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s infrasound station in Bermuda recorded the energy of the blast as being between 3 and 5 kilotons of TNT. The explosion was captured as a bright flash by the GOES-16 weather satellite.

This event reminded me of another, much larger event called the Tunguska Event.

111 years ago at 7:15 local time on the morning of June 30, 1908, something happened in the skies above the Stony Tunguska River in Siberia.

Within a 900 mile radius, thousands observed a fireball in the sky, similar to, if not larger than the size of the Sun, and a series of explosions “with a frightful sound”, followed by shaking of the ground as “the earth seemed to get opened wide and everything would fall in the abyss.”

Various meteorological stations in Europe recorded both seismic and atmospheric waves, and for days later strange phenomena were observed in the skies of Russia and Europe, such as glowing clouds, colorful sunsets and a strange luminescence in the night.

Russian newspapers reported a supposed meteorite impact. International newspapers speculated about a possible volcanic explosion, as similar strange luminous effects were observed also after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.

Due to the inaccessibility of the region and Russia’s unstable political situation at that time, it wasn’t until March of 1927 that researchers were able to examine the area located at 60°55′N 101°57′E. They found a large area covered with rotting logs. A huge explosion apparently flattened more than 80 million trees across 820 square miles. Only at the epicenter of the explosion, in the “Forest of Tunguska”, so called “telegraph pole trees” were still standing, with all branches and the bark burned off.

If anyone had been living in the area at that time the shockwave, or blast overpressure would have killed them either due to debris impacts or damage to hollow organs such as auditory, respiratory, and gastrointestinal systems.

Even today, there is no definite explanation for what caused the explosions.

The leading theory is that a meteorite hit the area or more probably that an asteroid or comet of low density, and a diameter of between 100 to 250 feet exploded at a height of 4 to 9 miles above ground creating a nuclear type airburst and for this reason there is no impact crater.

Other nifty theories are:

A black hole hit the Earth
A chunk of antimatter hit the Earth
Radio pioneer Nikola Tesla tested a “death ray”
A UFO crashed (those darned Klingons)

Whatever caused it, it explains why I we built that underground bunker built under the house.

(But, don’t tell anyone)
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on July 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/