ALERT NEWSLETTER – November 2018

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The colors of Fall are brightening all around us, which is one of the “treats” of the seasons.
The “trick” of the season is that we have now entered our second tornado season.

So, this is a good time to review your emergency plans and check your emergency equipment.

Are you still ready?

Ask yourselves these simple questions.

Can you receive weather warnings? This includes at home, at work and on the road, even with a power outage.

Do you have a place where you can take shelter at home, at work or on the road?

And, if a tornado strikes near you, do you know what to do?

Is your emergency equipment still ready? This includes radios, supplies, kits and tools.

These are questions that need to be asked and any necessary actions taken.

You and your family’s life depend on it. For though ALERT responds to the NWS to take storm reports, our primary responsibility is to take care of ourselves, our families and then our community.

So take time to learn about disaster preparedness. Think about what you will do if “it” happens to you. Educate your family, friends, coworkers and neighbors as to what they can do and why they should prepare also.

If your message meets unreceptive ears, don’t worry. Those little seeds of knowledge can grow into large trees. And, knowledge saves lives.

And, saving lives is what we are in “the business” for.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

The Mythological F6 Tornado?

May 27, 1997 started unremarkably in South Central Texas, but, it would soon become a date etched into the meteorological history books.

As is the ways of the ocean of air in which we live, the potions brewed in the Witches Cauldron of Circumstances that made conditions ripe for a tornado outbreak.

So it was that at 12:54 AM CDT the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued Tornado Watch 338 which was effective from 1:15 PM to 7:00 PM CDT, which included Williamson County Texas.

At 3:30 PM the NWS Austin/San Antonio Weather Forecast Office, also known as NWSFO EWX, issued a Tornado Warning for Williamson County until 7:00 PM, stating “At 3:25 PM a tornadic thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of Jarral (sic) moving southeast at 10 MPH. This storm has had a history of producing tornadoes and large hail. The city of Jarrel (sic) is in the path of this storm.”

Between 3:15 and 3:20 what was to become known as the “Jarrell TX Tornado” formed as a F0 or F1 tornado and rapidly intensified (explosively is the term the NOAA report used) and touched down as a thin pencil-like tornado near the Bell-Williamson County line.

Even though the Jarrell storm was producing a mesocyclone and a violent tornado, the radar reflectivity field did not show a distinct hook echo directly preceding the tornado. A small hook was apparent on the Granger radar data after the tornadic circulation developed. The NOAA report stated “Although most supercells contain mesocyclones on the right rear flank with respect to storm motion, the mesocyclones on this day were located on the front flank (southwest quadrant) as they moved slowly south-southwestward. The difference in mesocyclone location was probably due to enhanced southwestward propagation along the boundary. Despite the fact that the reflectivity features were not typical and could have somewhat confused a radar interpreter, the rotational signals were clear and easy to follow.”

Although still thin, it was already powerful. It scoured a cotton field down to a depth of 18 inches. Next, it moved on to a wheat field, plucking out the wheat shafts by the millions and then propelling these million arrows and impaling the 300 cows that were in the field beyond that. Its funnel rapidly intensified into a violent ¾ mile wide multiple vortex tornado at around 3:45 pm CDT.

At 3:48 pm CDT the tornado struck the Double Creek Estates neighborhood in the northwestern portion of Jarrell, as a slow-moving wedge tornado, moving only 15 MPH, subjecting the neighborhood to prolonged tornadic winds.

The storm scoured and vacuumed up 18 – 24 inches of topsoil, debarked and shredded trees, snapped power poles at their bases, then the slow-moving wedge tornado completely destroyed
all 38 houses including houses well-constructed and bolted to their foundations, leaving only slab foundations. Cars were picked up, sandblasted, torn into pieces and thrown long distances, some more than half a mile. Some of the vehicles were blasted into many pieces and strewn across fields. Other vehicles were never found at all. Nearby vehicles that remained relatively intact were sandblasted down to their frames, flattened and completely caked with mud and grass.

So were the victims. The tornado victims sustained such extreme physical trauma that recovery teams had difficulty distinguishing human remains and body parts from animal remains scattered throughout the area. Many of the human remains were never recovered at all.

Those few who did miraculously survive stated it was like being inside a vacuum cleaner.

One lady said she was riding a mower on her lawn when she saw the tornado bearing down on her. She ran inside her home, grabbed a blanket, jumped into a bathtub and pulled the blanket over her head. The house blew apart around her, and the storm pushed her violently for hundreds of feet, eventually tossing her out of the bathtub. When it passed, she was badly bruised and cut, but still alive.

The tornado produced some of the most extreme ground scouring ever documented. When the tornado crossed county roads CR 308, CR 305, and then CR 307, approximately 525 feet of asphalt was ripped off each of the roadways and pieces of concrete were chipped out of their slabs.
.
A small-steel frame recycling facility was completely leveled, leaving nothing of the structure at all but the foundation and a few mangled steel beams.

The tornado was so fierce that it left virtually no sizable debris. This produced a problem in judging its strength, as the tornado left no damage indicators with which to judge higher winds, but video of the tornado shows extremely violent rotation and updraft winds comparable to other F5 tornados.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc1O1d_7HPU

The original Fujita Scale in use from 1971 to 2007 started at F0 with wind speeds from 40 – 72 MPH or “Light Damage” to F5 with wind speeds of 261 – 318 MPH or “Incredible Damage”. Dr. Fujita intended that F0 through F5 be used in practice, but, included F6, which he phrased as “inconceivable tornado”, to allow for wind speeds exceeding F5 or more specifically from from 318 to 372 MPH and for possible future advancements in damage analysis. The original scale actually went up to F12 to Mach 1 the speed of sound, 738 MPH. The scale was originally designed to bridge gap between the Beaufort Scale used to judge wind speeds since the days of sailing ships and the Mach scale of supersonic speeds.

Newspaper articles from 1997 reported wind speeds from 400 – 500 mph, a later paper by the University of Wisconsin stated 260 MPH. In truth there is no way of knowing the true wind speed of this tornado.

Many tornado researchers, after reviewing aerial damage photographs of Double Creek Estates, considered the Jarrell storm to be the most violent tornado they had ever seen in terms of damage intensity. In fact it is said Dr. Fujita felt this was the closest to an F6 as you could get, but, it was unprovable.

The Enhanced Fujita Scale we now use leaves EF5 as open ended, for at the higher end wind speeds of an EF5 it becomes impossible to determine the wind speed based on the damage pattern, as the destruction becomes too great.

One particularly sad note concerned Amateur Radio.

In NOAA’s “Service Assessment, The Central Texas Tornadoes of May 27, 1997” it states:

“Facts, Findings and Recommendations

A. Observations

Finding 1:
The amateur radio base station at NWSFO EWX was not activated for Tornado Watch #338. The NWSFO EWX did try to contact the amateur radio coordinator for Tornado Watch #340 but could not raise him. They also could not contact a backup coordinator. No one on duty at NWSFO EWX knew how to turn on the amateur radio equipment for passive monitoring. Therefore, vital spotter information was not received via this amateur radio link. A meteorologist intern at NWSFO EWX indicated he did receive one report via a phone call from an amateur radio operator.

Recommendation 1:
Personnel at NWSFO EWX should be trained in how to turn on the amateur radio equipment so that they can at least hear reports, even if the network is not activated. NWSFO EWX should also work with the amateur radio coordinator on backup procedures for contacting key people in impending emergencies.”

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/jarrell.pdf (23rd page of PDF, 15th page of report)

The lesson for groups such as ours is the NWS REALLY DOES need and value amateur radio assistance during severe weather. This may seem obvious, but, in today’s world of smartphones, wall-to-wall TV coverage and the plethora of social media routes, amateur radio can sometimes seem like an archaic relic to some. In truth our role is just as vital today as it was in 1997 or at any time in past. They consider us a vital resource, not necessary nuisance.

Whether it is used during hurricane relief, earthquake aftermaths or storm spotting and post storm response, amateur radio plays a crucial role that cannot be overstated.

“When all else fails there is amateur radio” is a true truism.

It’s our job to make sure amateur radio doesn’t fail.

We do this by volunteering, keeping current in our training and not being lulled to sleep when the quiet times come and by remaining “reachable” when we are needed during an emergency.

For as surely as the sun rises in the east, the time will come when you will receive the words “NWS Requests Callout”.

It is our job to be ready.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Mark’s Almanac

With the arrival of November we enter our second tornado season. Alabama and the Southeast are “blessed” by being the only area on Earth having two tornado seasons. And, the cause of the second season is the same as the spring season – clashes of cold and warm air masses. The cold air of winter is invading and trying to push the warmth of the summer back into the sea, which is the same process of springtime.

This second season is often more destructive than the spring season. From 1951 to 2016 there have been 267 November tornadoes in Alabama resulting in 53 fatalities and 1123 injuries. The third largest tornado outbreak occurred on November 24 – 25 2001 when 36 tornadoes occurred and 21 tornadoes occurred during the outbreak of November 23 – 24 2004.

November was Alabama’s leading tornado month from 2001 to 2011 until the dual outbreaks of April 15 and April 27 2011 erased that record.

So beware of a warm & muggy November day. Especially one with a south wind, as something may really be “in the air”.

The Hurricane threat greatly diminishes, with hurricane activity occurring mainly in the open Atlantic, threatening the Eastern Seaboard, but usually veering off into sea as cold fronts off the East Coast deflect them. Hurricanes can still form in the Caribbean, which usually visit the Yucatan, but can enter the Gulf.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 90 Tropical Storms and 59 hurricanes, 5 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable November hurricanes are:

The 1932 Cuba hurricane, known also as the Hurricane of Santa Cruz del Sur or the 1932 Camagüey Hurricane. Although forming as a tropical depression on October 30, it became the only Category 5 Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and was the deadliest and one of the most intense tropical cyclones in Cuban history. On November 6, the tropical cyclone reached its peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. The storm weakened to Category 4 intensity as it came ashore in Cuba’s Camagüey Province on November 9 with winds of 150 mph. The storm took 3,033 lives.

Hurricane Ida, in 2009 was the strongest land falling tropical cyclone during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ida formed on November 4 in the southwestern Caribbean, and within 24 hours struck the Nicaragua coast with winds of 80 mph. It weakened significantly over land, although it restrengthened in the Yucatán Channel to peak winds of 105 mph. Ida weakened and became an extratropical cyclone in the northern Gulf of Mexico before spreading across the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida contributed to the formation of a nor’easter that significantly affected the eastern coast of the United States.

1985’s Hurricane Kate was the latest Hurricane in any calendar year to strike the United States.
Kate formed on November, 15 and reached hurricane intensity on November 16, and reached Category 2 intensity three days later. Kate struck the northern coast of Cuba on November 19. Once clear of land, she strengthened quickly, becoming a Category 3 storm and reached its peak intensity of 120 mph. On November 21 Kate came ashore near Mexico Beach, Florida, as Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph.

Hurricane Lenny, or Wrong Way Lenny, occurred in 1999. It is the second-strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record, behind the 1932 Cuba hurricane. Lenny formed on November 13 in the western Caribbean Sea and moved retrograde from the West to East passing South of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. He reached hurricane status south of Jamaica on November 15 and rapidly intensified over the northeastern Caribbean on November 17, attaining peak winds of 155 mph near Saint Croix in the United States Virgin Islands. It gradually weakened while moving through the Leeward Islands, eventually dissipating on November 23 over the open Atlantic Ocean.

1994’s Hurricane Gordon claimed 1122 lives in Haiti when it passed just west of the country as a tropical storm on November 13, 1994.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane seasons ends November 30.

Figure 2 – November Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 40.9 degrees at the beginning of the month to 34.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 10 hours 40 minutes on November 1 to 10 hours 07 minutes on November 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

November 1 Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 5:55 PM
November 15 Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 4:45 PM – After Daylight Savings Time Ends
November 31 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 4:39 PM

The blooms of summer have faded, but you may find yourself still sneezing, due to ragweed and mold.

Mold is a fall allergy trigger. You may think of mold growing in your basement or bathroom – damp areas in the house – but mold spores also love wet spots outside. Piles of damp leaves are ideal breeding grounds for mold.

Oh, and did I mention dust mites? While they are common during the humid summer months, they can get stirred into the air the first time you turn on your heat in the fall. Dust mites can trigger sneezes, wheezes, and runny noses.

November welcomes the peak of fall colors. For Birmingham the peak occurs around November 15, but the date can vary depending on your elevation & latitude.

Indian Summer and Squaw Winter continue to battle it out, but the cool or cold weather will eventually win, with the first average frost being on November 11.

The usual fall effects occur in North America with Canada’s Hudson Bay becoming unnavigable due to pack ice & icebergs. Navigation in the Great Lakes becomes perilous due to storms bringing the “Gales Of November” made famous in the Gordon Lightfoot song “The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald”.

And, don’t be surprised if you hear ducks overhead & see wedges of Canadian geese heading south for the winter. And if you see strange birds appearing in your front yard, remember that for 336 species of birds Alabama IS south for the winter.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury magnitude -0.2, will be at his highest altitude above the Western Horizon, or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” on November 6, when he will be 23.3 degrees above the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

On 8 November, Mercury will be very the new crescent moon in the western evening sky immediately after sunset.

On November 11, if one observes Mercury through a telescope, the planet will resemble a half lit first quarter moon, a phase also called “dichotomy”.

As the month progresses he will sink into the sunset, becoming invisible by November 19.

On November 27 Mercury will be at “Inferior Conjunction” as he moves between the Earth and the Sun.

Two days later on November 27, he will be at the closest distance to the Sun in his 88 day orbit, or he “Perihelion”.

Venus, just over 2.3 light minutes from Earth, is hidden in the glow of the sunrise at the beginning of the month, and then emerges into the eastern morning sky. A very old crescent moon may be seen above the dawn alongside Venus on November 6.

Venus will then get progressively higher each morning above the Eastern horizon.

We often take for granted that Venus is one of the most constant fixtures in our night sky, shining brightly in the mornings and evenings. Venus occasionally becomes the third brightest object in the sky after the sun and moon, and one of these times will be on the morning of November 29th.

Mars is growing dimmer as his distance increases from Earth, at magnitude -0.6. He shines highest in the south just after the end of twilight and continues to set around 1 AM.

On November 11 he will move from Capricornus into Aquarius. The First Quarter Moon passes near Mars on 15 November, passing 1 angular degree from the Red Planet

In a telescope Mars is 86% sunlit and is as gibbous as we ever see it.

Jupiter, magnitudes –1.7 in Libra is very low after sunset, just above the southwest horizon in bright twilight.

On November 2 Jupiter and Mercury will sit side by side above the Western horizon, with Mercury to the left. Binoculars will help.

Jupiter then moves into the glow of the Sun and will pass behind the far side of the Sun, or be in Superior Conjunction on November 26.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius glows yellow in the South-Southwest in late twilight.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.7, near the Aries-Pisces border in the Southeastern sky soon after nightfall. He is a mere 2.6 light hours away.

Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is also well up in the southeastern side of the sky soon after nightfall. He is currently 4.2 light hours away.

One thing that occasionally crosses my mind during flights of fancy and day dreaming is that since I’ve been a ham nearly 41 years, it is theoretically possible that some fleeting trace of the pulses of young Mark’s first shaky CW signal has actually reached one of the 81 star systems visible to the naked eye 41 light years away. Not to mention the nearly 1000 fainter systems lying there.

If that doesn’t spark an alien invasion, nothing will.

Our Sun from the farthest planet within this range appears as a faint 5.8 magnitude star to the many tentacled purple creatures buggish eyes – all 16 of them. As he, she or it wonders “is there anyone else out there?”

New Moon will occur November 7. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 16:02 UTC or 10:02 AM CST. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

In Europe on the evening of November 12, at 6:27 PM, the moon will “Occult” or pass in front of Pluto, as observed in London.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on November 14, when she will be 251246 miles from Earth.

The annual Leonid meteor shower occurs from November 6 – 30 and peaks on the night of November 17 & the morning of the 18th. Though the Leonids are an “average shower”, producing only an average of 15 meteors per hour, they are well known for producing bright meteors and fireballs.

This shower is also unique in that it has a cyclonic peak about every 33 years where hundreds of meteors per hour can be seen. That last of these occurred in 2001. The Leonids are produced by dust grains left behind by Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1865.

Its productivity varies per year, but it can deposit 12 to 13 tons of particles across the planet. Which is why having an atmosphere to shield us is such a nifty thing.

The waxing gibbous moon will set shortly after midnight leaving fairly dark skies for what could be a good early morning show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Leo, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Full Moon will occur at 05:40 UTC or 12:40 AM CST November 23. November’s Full Moon is called “Beaver Moon” in Native American folklore, because this was the time of year to set the beaver traps before the swamps and rivers froze. It has also been known as the Frosty Moon and the Hunter’s Moon.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on November 26, when she will be 227,809 miles or one and one quarter Light Seconds from Earth.

3826 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of October 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

Unfortunately one of the prime tools used to detect these worlds, the Kepler Space Telescope, which discovered 70% of these worlds, has ended its mission after 13 years, having finally run out of fuel.

Gladly there are years of data still to be reviewed and another 2900 possible planets to be vetted, most of which are expected to prove to be real.

Finally, don’t forget to set your clocks back one hour at 2 AM, Sunday morning November 4th, as Daylight Savings Time ends.

Remember that according to the National Time Act of 2014 states you MUST wait until 2 AM to reset your clocks, or you will be in violation of Section 15, Paragraph 114, Subset 195485 (24(234b)) (see page 4537) of said act.

Would I lie?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on November 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database