ALERT NEWSLETTER – August 2018

Reading Tea Leaves With Mark
Or
Point Weather Forecasting For The Rank Amateur

“What’s it going to do this weekend?”

This is a question I’ve been asked countless times through the years after it was “discovered” that “that little kid Mark, ask him, he seems to know what the weather’s going to do.”

This “Mystic Ability” came about quite by accident. Long before my interest in ham radio or meteorology there was and still is a deep interest in astronomy. Starting at age 5, or around 1963, I would look through my sister Joyce’s old thick high school science book, which was published in the late 1940’s and see the pictures of star clouds and planets, later I would read it’s tales of “island universes”, the true nature of swirling galaxies having just been realized when the book was printed and of the probability of life on Mars. It fired my young imagination.

Around 1970 I saved what was to me a fortune and bought a reflector telescope for $30 and began exploring the night sky.

At school on Wednesday I would figure out what I would be looking at Saturday. Wednesday would be clear. By Thursday there were giant feathers in the sky. On Friday a halo would be circling the Sun and on Saturday buckets of rain would be falling.

It only took a few episodes of this for me to figure out the pattern.

So it was that Thursday would come, I would look up at the sky, cancel my plans to count craters on the moon, and would remark to a friend planning to “go fishin” Saturday “you might better take an umbrella.” To which he would reply “yeah sure, you don’t know nuthin.”

Monday would come and he would come, still disappointed from his fishing trek being rained out and ask “How did you know?”

“It’s an ancient secret, passed down to only a few” I would say, and maybe mumble something about Forbidden Knowledge Of The Egyptians, and watch his blank expression.

That started it. I get asked “what’s it going to do” daily, from near and far. Just five minutes ago someone asked “what will it do today?” and that’s just twice so far for today.

I don’t mind it at all. It’s fun.

“Why don’t you do this on TV?” some have asked.

Besides having a face that would frighten little children if they saw me on TV, let’s just say that the twists and turns of life and a general reeking of my mathematical ability, both higher and lower, have combined to make that possibility somewhat dubious.

If by chance I were to get struck by lightning and those forces that hold my long dormant mathematical brain cells hostage where to release them and they suddenly snapped into conduction where one plus one no longer equals three, I might consider doing what my father did when he went back to college at near age 60, and ended up teaching at the University Of Alabama.

Roll Tide, by the way.

Then the question of the actual marketability of what would eventually be a 65 year old rookie meteorologist might factor in, as well as the “ABBA Theory”.

An obscure early ABBA song tells of a lady working a mundane job “just a face among a million faces, just another lady with no name.” But she had a secret, as she was part of an amateur ballet company and every Friday night she was transformed into the star of the stage. Monday? Back to being buried in paperwork and being a random face lost in the crowd.

Would she prefer that every day be like Friday? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. “For she knows the fun would go away, if she played every day.”

Being an armchair meteorologist has the advantage of non-accountability. If I miss a forecast, big deal, only the cat and I know. And, he doesn’t say too much.

But our friends at the NWS are held to strict accountability, and broadcast meteorologists catch grief every time General Hospital is interrupted for a storm that effects “the other guy”, not them and woe to all of them if it “unexpectedly” rains on little Demented, I mean little Darling Daphne’s fifth birthday party and picnic.

But, just for fun, not pretending to be “anybody” or claiming any special talent, let’s reveal the Shrouded Sacred Secrets of “Mark’s Roll Your Own Weather Forecasting.”

Before I begin I will say when I look for the ACTUAL forecast I rely on our friends on Weathervane Road, the NWS. They have the experience, talent, dedication, education and resources that let me know that barring the unforeseen quirks of nature, I can rely on their opinions and judgements.

The following suggestions are based on the assumption that you have little or no equipment available. This becomes especially valuable during outdoor adventures, as it lessens your chances of being caught off guard, whether at the beach, the park or in the mountains.

Before beginning ANY adventure check the NWS forecast first. Many, many troubles and tragedies could have been avoided by that one simple little action.

If you are interested in trying “Roll Your Own Forecasting” here are a few suggestions I recommend.

1. Do a little research. Start with a simple, manageable book describing the whys and ways of weather phenomena and how the atmosphere works. It doesn’t have to be a 1000 page tome loaded with mathematical formulae looking like it was written in Chinese.

The book I learned from, which was simple, yet detailed was Weather: A Fully Illustrated, Authoritative and Easy-to-Use Guide (A Golden Guide from St. Martin’s Press) by Paul E. Lehr & R. Will Burnette.

At first it looks like a “child’s book”, but, it has plenty of useful information that is well explained, and is loaded with illustrations that could be considered works of art.

2. Learn your microclimate. Every area has its own little quirks and interactions which will combine to cause variations in actual conditions versus the expected textbook conditions. Hills will alter the wind flow, streams and bogs will alter the humidity levels for example.

Once there was an emergency exercise where K4NWS provided weather updates for a simulated chemical emergency. The Incident Commander would call for weather conditions and I would give him the latest readings from the NWS instruments. At one point he became frustrated and yelled “that’s not what we are seeing down here.” I explained that “conditions at the NWS forecast office may or may not mirror the conditions you see at your location. This is what the conditions are at the forecast office, conditions seen at other locations can and will vary due to variations in terrain.”

He didn’t like that answer of course, but, it was the truth and as they say “I don’t write em, I just read em.”

I’ve experimented by placing instruments in the center and corners of large fields, and all the readings were in some disagreement. Shadows, shading, wind deflection and foliage all combined to give a variation in readings.

What local factors could influence your forecast?

3. Pay attention, notice and learn what normally goes on around you, both weatherwise and otherwise.

We live in a “tuned out” society, with many distractions both good and bad.

Some go about almost in a zombielike state absorbed in their own little virtual world of texting and chatting. This is neither healthy nor safe, as you can become so unaware of what’s going on around you that you become the perfect prey for those who would harm you, either due to greed, hatred, prejudice or just mean low down creepy people “being themselves” by acting mean creepy and low down.

Also, you don’t want to end up like poor Granny Johnson. The booze finally got her. True, she never drank a drop, but, she was blasting the Hallelujah Tabernacle Quartet so loud in her earbuds that she never heard the air horn of the Budweiser truck that sent her to Glory – in a somewhat flattened state.

So tune back in!

I know it may not be as easy as it sounds, because it is such a strong habit, and because it’s so enjoyable. But, tuning back in is even more enjoyable.

As you reconnect with the world around you, you will begin to notice cool little things. Flowers you never saw before, yet they were always there. What the bugs and birds are doing. For instance you notice anthills growing taller as the ants shore them up, they somehow knowing that it is going to rain. You see the birds reappearing in the rain letting you know a storm is almost over. You hear the changing and varying call of the birds, and you learn to admire the ever changing tapestry of the sky and learn the secrets it holds.

The longer you reconnect you begin to sense things about the moods of nature and the creatures in it, almost a sixth sense, as you tap into the primordial instincts that were always there, but, were buried deep within by the continual drone and distractions of modern society.

You will find that world is an exceedingly interesting place.

When gathering information for your forecast, here are some questions to ask yourself,

1. What are the winds doing?

Some broad, general rules are:

North wind cold, South wind hot, East wind foul & West wind fair

But, while these indicators are right more often than they are wrong, the most important forecasting factor is the change in the wind direction, for changes in wind direction indicates a change in the pressure environment, the interaction between high pressure and low pressure systems, which actually end up defining the “weather” that we see. This is especially true when accompanied by a change in the barometric pressure.

The following rules come from various sources, where I got them are lost in the mists and the cobwebs of my memory.

“If the wind is shifting counterclockwise from the Southwest through South to the East and the barometer is falling, a storm system is West to Northwest of your location and will pass near or North of you within 12 to 24 hours. If accompanied by East or Northeast moving clouds, a cold front is approaching. After the front passes expect a wind shift to the Northwest.”

“If the wind is from the East to Northeast and the barometer is falling, a storm is South to Southwest of your location and will pass near or South of your location in 12 to 24 hours. Expect a wind shift to the Northwest via North as the storm passes.”

Once a front has passed the duration of fair weather will be depend roughly on the duration of the pressure rise. If the pressure rise lasts only for a day, the fair weather will not last much longer than a day.

Calm winds, or North winds and high pressure usually indicate good weather.

2. What is the barometer REALLY doing?

Occasionally I will hear broadcast media say “the pressure is 30.00 inches and steady” and I will think “oh, no it is NOT steady, it’s falling. That is the same reading you had at 6PM.”

A secret that one has to consider when reading a barometer is the “diurnal effect” of the barometric pressure. Normally the barometric pressure will rise and fall a little during the day without it having any significance or indicating any outside influence.

The degree of this rise or fall will vary with the latitude, but, generally it will be roughly plus or minus .05 to .06 inches in Alabama.

For example, if the pressure is 30.00 inches at noon, the pressure will normally fall to around 29.95 inches at 6PM, rebound to 30.00 inches at Midnight, fall again to 29.95 inches at 6AM, and so forth.

This is not a true rise and fall, but, a normal variation. So technically in this case for our forecasting purposes, the pressure could be considered “steady”.

An easy way to remember this is that the pressure at noon should be the same at midnight, and the pressure at 6AM should read the same at 6PM. If it is, no change is imminent. If it does move out of this range, then something could be “in the wind”.

Also, the actual level of the pressure, whether high or low does not necessarily indicate what weather could be occurring. I’ve seen it rain with a “high pressure” of 30.45 inches, and have seen it be clear as glass with a “low pressure” of 29.65 inches.

Again, it’s the CHANGE that we are interested in.

What if you don’t have a barometer?

You are in luck in that you can access an entire network of FREE weather stations called the Automated Weather and Surface Observation System.

The Automated Surface Observing System or ASOS stations are operated cooperatively by the NWS, FAA & DOD. This is a primary climatological observing network. Deployment of the system began in 1991 and was completed in 2004.

These stations use a format such as this: “Birmingham Airport Automated Weather Observation. One six five three Zulu. Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20. Visibility 7. Light rain, mist. Sky condition 700 scattered, 1700 broken, 3500 overcast. Temperature 79, Celsius, Dew Point 69 Celsius, Altimeter 29.64. Remarks distant lightning South West through west. Wind variable between 150 and 230.”

Deciphering this, “one six five three Zulu” is the time 16:53 UTC.

“Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20” is the wind direction, in this case south. Remember the cardinal compass points: North is at 0 degrees (and 360 degrees), East is 90 degrees, South is 180 degrees, and West is 270 degrees. Then the wind speed is given.

“Visibility 7” is the horizontal surface visibility.

“Light rain, mist” is self-explanatory.

“Sky condition” is the actual measured altitude of the various cloud layers in feet, in this case 700 feet scattered, 1700 feet broken, 3500 feet overcast.

Temperature & dew point are given in Celsius.

“Altimeter 29.64” is the barometric pressure in this case 29.64 inches.

“Remarks” are any other pertinent weather comments, in this case distant lightning is being observed South West through West and the wind direction is wind variable between 150 and 230 degrees.

These reports are very useful in getting an idea of the conditions both now and just upstream of your location.

The following link gives you all of the ASOS Frequencies and Telephone by city or airport for Alabama.

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/?state=AL

Now there are a few drawbacks to these stations:

The weather given is the weather where the station is located, and may not necessarily agree with the weather where you are located. As mentioned earlier, wind currents and eddies, trees, unknown or unseen elements all of which make up the microclimate of the location may throw curve balls into the readings.

Cloud layer altitudes are interesting to know. But, they are measured using a laser beam ceilometer that shoots a laser beam straight up & measures return “echo”. This method is good and accurate, but has tunnel vision. I have seen times it would say “clear” and it was really ringing a doughnut hole in an otherwise overcast sky. This device has a maximum range of 12000 feet. Low Altocumuli can be detected; higher altocumulus and cirrus will be missed.

3. What are the clouds doing?

Perhaps the biggest clues to the upcoming weather are the clouds themselves. Each tells a different story.

(At this point I would sorely love to include pictures to illustrate the following. But I am concerned about bandwidth, copy write and newsletter length issues. Just copy the cloud name in your search engine and go to “images” to learn their appearance.)

CLEAR skies indicate no major change is imminent (though nature sometimes will throw a surprise).

CUMULUS – Like shreds of cotton, clouds that are being shredded and torn against a blue sky usually mean fair weather for several hours.

CUMULUS – Chubby, looking like a mound of mashed potatoes, forming sheets or a “field of cumulus” usually indicate fair weather, with the exception of those forming at or before noon, as they indicate instability and possible showers later in the day. The flatter they are, they less likely anything will develop. Towards sunset they can flatten out into STRATOCUMULUS detailed below.

CUMULUS – Looking like cauliflowers or CUMULUS CONGESTUS can bring showers or continue developing into a thunderstorm or CUMULONIMBUS

CUMULUS – Shooting straight up or towering or “TOWERING CUMULUS” indicates thunderstorms are likely.

CUMULONIMBUS – Mountains of clouds, with anvil shaped tops capped by false cirrus – thunderstorms are already here.

STRATUS – Low dense clouds, actually a type of fog. Expect drizzle. Many times they will burn off as the Sun rises during the morning, or ruin a “fair weather” night forecast by forming as a fog bank under a clear sky and hovering near the ground totally obscuring the sky.

NIMBOSTRATUS – A low, rainy layer, dark gray, frequently observed under ALTOSTRATUS. These indicate longer periods of rain, perhaps for hours, but not as long if accompanied by West or Northwest winds. Sometimes they are accompanied by lower detached scud clouds scooting underneath or tendrils and wisps of clouds seen rising off mountain ridges.

STRATOCUMULUS – Large globular masses or rolls arranged in waves or lines. They may lower and fuse together and convert into STRATUS or NIMBOSTRATUS. These indicate “unsettled weather”, which is defined for our purposes as “variable clouds, with slight chances of precipitation, if the precipitation is substantial it will fall for a small part of the period only”.

ALTOCUMULUS – Globular masses, small and flattened usually in lines or waves. The moon or sun often shines readily through them, accompanied by a colorful corona or iridescence. They are often followed by unsettled weather or showery skies.

ALTOSTRATUS – A gloomy gray uniform sheet of clouds, with the sun occasionally peaking though as if looking through frosted glass. Expect rain within 12 to 24 hours if Northeast to Southeast winds are present.

CIRROCUMULUS – Delicate looking small globular masses, sometimes resembling lace, a net or a honeycomb, sometimes looking similar to small altocumulus, but always white with no shadowing. Cirrocumulus in thin patches in association with other high, thin clouds usually means fair weather, while cirrocumulus as part of a thickening layer of clouds is more likely to mean that storms are on the way. I consider these the most beautiful of clouds.

CIRROSTRATUS – A white veil, often merging into ALTOSTRATUS. Increasing means rain is likely, particularly if there is a halo encircling the sun or moon. Expect chances of rain within 12 to 24 hours. Sometimes these clouds are so thin that the sun or moon shines readily through the milky sky.

CIRRUS – Thin, white silky and fibrous. If a few feathery cirrus are floating by it means fair weather today. They occasionally produce sundogs, which may indicate rain within 24 to 48 hours, if the coverage increases. Their distance is deceptive, as they are so high up that they may look as if they are nearby, but, may actually be 50 to 150 miles away, the distance increasing the closer they are to the horizon.

CONTRAILS – The long thin clouds that are formed in the wake of aircraft. Long trails will only form if there is already some moisture in the air; in very dry air they dissolve almost instantly.
If they persist and grow longer, the air is becoming humid. If they persist for hours they can cover the sky and merge into a sort of manmade form of CIRROSTRATUS, indicating a worsening of the weather is to come.

4. What is your radio doing?

By taking an AM radio, tuning it to 530 and listening to the sferics or static crashes you can determine the presence of thunderstorms, the type of thunderstorm (cellular or linear) and with practice using the same receiver exclusively, as differing receivers have differing reception traits, estimate the approximate range or distance of the storm from you.

Cellular storms will have sporadic bursts, while linear storms have a more continuous pattern.

With scattered cellular storms you may hear many bursts, but the volume and sharpness will decrease with increasing distance. A burst resembling the sound of plastic wrap is distant, while a sharp, loud crash means the storm is near.

If one listens to the crashes and plots the storms on radar, they will develop “an ear” as to judging the distance.

This also works on 160 and 80 Meters during the day. It is useless at night however, as the skip zone is too long and you may be hearing storms in Texas.

One oddity I’ve noticed is that static crashes from approaching storms seem to be louder than storms moving away, but, at the same distance. Why, I’m not certain. My best guess is that the rainfall is attenuating the “signal” from the static crash.

Also, a ham who worked the McDonald’s Chapel tornado in 1956 tells me that for days after the tornado there was, as it were, a continuous static field in the atmosphere that made 2 meters almost unusable for hams working the disaster. What they encountered and why, I have never found out nor have I seen any similar reference with other tornadoes.

5. What is your gut telling you?

Sometimes you look at all the factors and still you just have a hunch or feeling that “this and such” is or isn’t going to happen.

Don’t ignore those feelings. They may be valid, based on something you heard or read, now largely forgotten, but still enough remaining in your memory to make you say “wait a minute”.

So, you have gathered all your information. What do you do now?

You write it all down, add it up and since indicators are sometimes contradictory, you usually go with the majority of the opinions. With time you will learn which factors are more accurate for your location and give heavier reliance on them.

The question then comes, how do you judge if you’ve missed the forecast or hit it?

Sometimes it’s easy. You predicted fair weather and it’s sunny. Atta boy!

But, what if your forecast is “increasing clouds, rain in 12 hours”; it becomes black as night with clouds, but, not a drop of rain falls? You got it and but you then again you didn’t get it. 50 – 50.

That’s why I learned to “blur” the forecast a little by saying “increasing clouds, rain POSSIBLE in 12 hours.” If the sky “beclouds” and it is gloomy for the majority of the forecast period, I’ve hit the mark whether it rains or not, as the forecast is mushy enough to not lock me into an “it must rain” scenario.

The question also arises of how long do the conditions have to exist to validate your forecast?

For instance your forecast was “increasing clouds”, which it did from 12 to 4, then suddenly the clouds broke and it was sunny for an hour and then it clouded over again from 5 till six.

The rule I used was “if the forecast proved valid for the majority of the forecast period, two thirds being the cutoff point, it counts.” Unless of course the “missed part” is so important that you can’t discount it. “It was fair weather except for the tornado and flash flood”, for instance.

What is the “forecast period” for my prodigious prognostications? That depends on how many forecasts I make in a day. If I make a forecast every six hours, which increases the accuracy, then my forecast period is 6 hours. If I made a forecast at Midnight & Noon, it is 12 hours, and so on.

There are no “official” rules, you have to make them up as you go and stick to them.

One thing I won’t do, that the pro’s do, is what I heard at an aviation weather seminar, when they spoke of “adjusting the forecast as it starts to ‘slip out of category’”. In other words, they find the forecast is proving wrong, so they quickly change it.

That’s ok for them, and they have to for safety reasons, but, it would be cheating for me.

Also, if you find that in spite of all the indications the forecast is consistently turning out wrong, until the indications start changing, just go with the flow. For instance, everything says “fair” but its rained 8 days straight, and nothing seems to be changing, I’m forecasting rain, regardless of the readings.

I’m not a dummy, you know.

Weather equipment I would recommend obtaining is a wind vane, barometer and thermometer. Or go all out and get a professional grade setup, such as those made by Davis or Lacrosse.

One other item I would get is a booklet that is no longer in print, but, available on Amazon and Ebay called The Sager Weathercaster. This booklet created during World War II by Raymond Sager is basically a weather computer, which you input information about the wind direction, barometer tendency and sky condition on a set of circular disks or dials. The dials then give you a 4 character alphanumeric code that you then look up, which in turn will give you a forecast of conditions and wind directions, which many more times than not will prove accurate.

An online version is available at http://www.weather-above.com/Sager%20Algorithm.html

A similar device is the Zambretti Forecaster developed in Britain by Negretti & Zambra during World War I. It also has a dial arrangement, and is interesting to try, if not as accurate as the Sager Weathercaster. This inaccuracy is due perhaps because of the latitude difference, or because sky conditions don’t factor in, or perhaps simply because the British forecast terminology is vague to me and doesn’t seem to match the US terminology that I’m used to and I can’t seem to reconcile the styles.

For instance I see a forecast of “fine weather”. What defines “fine”? Is it clear, partly cloudy, cloudy with sunshine peeking through or does it mean simply “it ain’t gonna rain?”

An online version is available at http://www.casacota.cat/2×2/predictor.pl

Over the years I’ve discovered that my forecasts are more accurate during the Spring and Fall. During the winter the storm systems move faster, causing the sequence of events to occur faster than “the books” say. In the summer storm systems will approach, giving the usual sequence of events, but then the systems are stalled or redirected by the Bermuda high and they never arrive.

This aggravates me to no end.

Also, it would seem I’m blind to storms approaching from the north. Probably due to terrain features interfering with the local wind field.

“Roll Your Own Forecasts”, which are theoretically valid for a 30 mile radius, are not only practical, but fun!

Why not give it a try?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851 to 2017 there have been 389 Tropical Storms and 245 Hurricanes, 80 of which made landfall in the United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille and Katrina in 1969 and 2005, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida in 1992.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.3 degrees at the beginning of the month to 64.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 43 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:33 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, Mercury is lost in the afterglow of sunset. On August 8th he will be at “Inferior Conjunction” or lie almost directly between the Earth and the Sun, and as the month progresses will reappear above the Eastern Horizon before dawn.

On August 29 He will reach his highest point above the Eastern horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation” when he will be 18.3 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since he will be at his highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Due to quirks in the Earth’s orbital interaction with the orbits of the other planets and the varying angles of observation through the year, sometimes the other planets appear to travel backward through the night sky with respect to the stars of the zodiac. This is an optical illusion called “apparent retrograde motion”. From July 26 to August 19, if one were to plot Mercury’s position in reference to the background star pattern, he would appear to be moving backwards against those background stars. Though this is more noticeable with the outer planets, it is barely noticeable in Mercury’s case. This feat will be repeated from November 17 to December 6.

Venus shines brightly in the west during twilight –4.2, in eastern Leo. She is getting a little lower every week in the Northern Hemisphere as her orbit tilts in favor of viewers in the Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, and now sets around the end of twilight. In a telescope Venus is a gibbous disk 61% sunlit.

On August 17 she will reach his highest point above the Western horizon or “Greatest Eastern Elongation”, when she will be 45.9 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Venus since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the bright planet in the western sky after sunset.

Mars made his closest approach to Earth on the night of July 26th. At magnitude -2.8 the blazing reddish planet is very prominent; in fact he is currently the brightest object in the late night sky, even brighter than Jupiter as he drifts through Capricorn.

You will see Mars appearing low in the southeast near the end of twilight. After dark he rises higher and shifts southward, in a weird orbital anomaly like no celestial object you normally see. Mars is highest in the south, giving the best telescopic view, around 1 a.m. daylight-saving time.

The dust storm that still blankets the Martian globe has started to thin a little, allowing faint, low-contrast views of some dark surface features.

When discussing Mercury I mentioned his “apparent retrograde motion” or backwards motion across the sky. Mars is doing this celestial skating trick also. Since Mars close approach with the Earth on July 26, Mars has also been moving retrograde and is passing the stars he passed by over two months ago, except in reverse order, and will reenter Sagittarius.

On August 28th Mars reaches its Western Stationary Point, or the point where he appears to not be moving at all, and then will begin a normal direct or prograde Eastward motion once more and the planet will begin to head back towards Capricornus, which he will re-enter on September 1st.

Jupiter shines brightly at magnitude –2.2, in Libra, in the south-southwest in twilight.

Saturn, passing above the Sagittarius Teapot glows at magnitude +1.0. Look for the yellow planet in the south just after dark. It’s to the upper right of much brighter Mars.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, at the Aries-Pisces border is high in the southeast in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is high in the south in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Pluto, poor Old Pluto, the demoted Dwarf Planet, glows dimly at magnitude 14.2 just above the “handle” of the Sagittarius Teapot. Though now known a Dwarf Planet, I still think he deserves his pedestal in the Elite Nine.

But, since he has been relegated to the Funky Five, and I have included him, I’ll include his four buddies Eris, Ceres, Haumea and Makemake also.

Dwarf Planet Eris, which NASA initially labeled as the “Tenth Planet” and was temporarily named “Xena” after “Xena The Warrior Princess”, shines at an even dimmer magnitude of 18.8 lying just South of Uranus, between Cetus and Pisces.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.8, is in Leo in the West in the twilight, not far from Venus.

Dwarf Planet Haumea, magnitude 17.7, is high overhead in Bootes at midnight.

Dwarf Planet Makemake, magnitude 17.2, is high overhead in Coma Berenices at midnight.

The origin of the name of the constellation Coma Berenices, which means “Berenice’s Hair”, has an interesting story behind it.

Legend has it that Egyptian Queen Berenice II’s husband Ptolemy III Euergetes went on a dangerous mission during the Third Syrian War. Worried for his life she swore to Aphrodite that she would cut off her hair if the goddess brought him safely home. Upon his safe return, she fulfilled her promise and cut off her hair placing it in Aphrodite’s temple. But, her hair disappeared the next day.

This made the King furious.

To appease him, the court astronomer Conon said that Aphrodite was so pleased with Queen Berenice’s offering that she had placed it in the sky, pointing to a small group of stars he hoped the King had never noticed, which pleased Ptolemy III and from that day since the group of stars that has been known as Berenice’s Hair.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on August 10, when she will be 222,502 miles from Earth.

On August 11 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky, which is known as New Moon. This phase occurs at 9:58 UTC or 4:58 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Partial Solar Eclipse on August 11. A partial solar eclipse occurs when the Moon covers only a part of the Sun, sometimes resembling a bite taken out of a cookie. This eclipse will be visible in parts of northeast Canada, Greenland, extreme northern Europe, and northern and eastern Asia. It will be best seen in northern Russia with 68% coverage.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 11 & 12, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17 to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 11 and the morning of August 12.

With the shower coinciding with an invisible New Moon, this should be a great show! Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 23, when she will be 252,118 miles from Earth,

August’s Full Moon will occur August 26 at 11:57 UTC or 6:57 AM CDT. August’s Full Moon was called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans.

Finally, in December we will be greeted by a (hopefully) bright comet, Comet Wirtanen. On December 16 it will pass 7,220,000 miles from Earth and is expected to reach magnitude 3, easily within visible range and large, being so close to the Earth.

Now some comets, well-advertised, end up being cosmic duds, so while I have my hopes up, I also will keep in mind the fizzles of the past. Such as the much heralded “Comet of The Century” Comet Kohoutek” which proved to be a yawner in 1974.

3774 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 19, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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Thanks for your help!

This month’s meeting will be on August 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter