ALERT NEWSLETTER – October 2016

Hi everybody and welcome to the October ALERT Newsletter.

October has arrived, and the dead grass that was once my front lawn reminds me that we are as dry as the Mohave Desert.

Thunderstorms, tornadoes and flooding seem either a distant memory or far into the future, when in fact our second severe weather season is only five weeks away.

So, with this preface I will ask a simple question.

Are you still prepared?

You see, we humans are reactive creatures. We make plenty of emergency plans AFTER a disaster has struck. But, as time passes and memories fade, so does our focus on personal emergency preparedness.

As October is the month for the Simulated Emergency Test, which we will discuss in a couple of minutes, why not do you own a quick test? Think of this as a “Simulated Emergency Test On The Cheap”.

Ask a family member to pick a date & time, not telling you of course when, and on that date and time they go to the breaker box & flip the switch.

For the test to be a realistic test it should be during the last 15 minutes of the finale of that mini-series you’ve been watching for the last five months. Or the end of that John Wayne movie when he has 3 bullets and 300 Apaches closing in. Or that ball game that’s in the bottom of the 15th inning, with the bases loaded. Or, dare I say, before the Imodium kicks in? You know….the usual times that the telephone decides to ring off the hook

Anyway, “poof”, you are in the dark.

Do you know where the flashlight is? Does it work? Is it once again full of that mysterious green powdery goop that was once upon a time, long, long ago, was a set of batteries?

Where is your HT? Is it charged? Have you charged it this year? This decade?

More importantly, if this were the “real deal” could you and your family reach your “place of safety”? Or do you even have a “place of safety” planned?

How ready are you really?

Notice that none of these questions pertain to callouts, deployments, or any other “official” EMCOMM activities. For your emergency preparedness must always begin and focus at home.

For you can’t deploy with any emergency group if you are dead or desperately trying to dig your family out of the rubble.

So the time to prepare is now. Prepare, and to stay prepared.

Knowledge is the most perishable commodity that exists. So read and reread those books you have. Take courses and refresher courses. Recheck & rethink your vulnerabilities and plans.

Take the time to take the time. For you and your family are certainly worth the effort.

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2016 ARRL Simulated Emergency Test

The ARRL Simulated Emergency Test is an annual exercise in emergency communications, administered by ARRL ARES Emergency Coordinators and Net Managers. Both ARES and the National Traffic System (NTS) are involved.

The SET weekend gives hams the opportunity to focus and hone emergency communications capability within their community while interacting with NTS nets.

The purposes of the SET are to:

1. Determine the strengths and weaknesses of ARES and NTS, the Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service (RACES) and other groups in providing emergency communications.

What methods, equipment and protocols do or don’t work? What changes need to be made to adjust to changing times, technology and resources, such as available repeaters? Old repeaters disappear and new ones appear on a regular basis. Are we depending on a repeater that no longer exists, while another repeater with twice the range is in an area, but we don’t know about?

Also, it provides an opportunity to demonstrate to our served agencies, such as the NWS, the EMA, and Red Cross as well as the public and news media, the value that Amateur Radio provides, particularly in time of need.

And, to help radio amateurs test their equipment and gain experience in emergency communications using standard procedures and a variety of modes under simulated emergency conditions.

This year’s SET will be divided into small segments of time so that we can maximize our ability to get as many hams and served agencies involved.

This test will differ from tests of previous years in that it will involve three separate tests.

The NWS and the state EMA have expressed a need to know the actual, not theoretical, effectiveness of Amateur Radio in contacting a county and surrounding counties EMA offices and the ability to reach the State EMA in Clanton via Amateur Radio.

I’ll mention at this point a little known fact, is that since the State EMA Office is underground, most cellphones will not work. So this is a good example of why “when all else fails, there’s Amateur Radio”.

The schedule for the 2016 SET is as follows:

The first part, which is limited to a designated county liaison, the particular county EMA and the NWS, will occur Friday October 14 from 15:00 to 17:00 UTC. This will NOT be open for general ham participation.

The second part, which will be the traditional SET for ham operators, will be Saturday, October 15 from 8:00 to Noon, using standard procedures including VHF/UHF county emergency nets, ALERT and the various EMA offices.

This year’s scenario involves a Category 5 Hurricane which strikes near Ft. Walton Beach Florida and moves northward through the center of Alabama. This is reminiscent of Hurricane Opal’s path in 1995.

Sunday evening, October 16 will be the HF portion of the SET during the normal time slot for the Traffic Net Mike on 3.965 MHz LSB, at 18:30 UTC. The SET events of the day will be reviewed and the NCS will provide updates and request the participants to provide information related to their activity in the SET events, including, whether they have 2 meter capability, emergency power capability, mobile capability and a list of successful contacts with adjacent counties.

ALERT will be active during this event and your participation is needed.

Watch for the callout and if you are available to volunteer (and I hope you are), please contact our NWS Liaison Russell, whose contact information will be included in the callout notice or via Russell@kv4s.com and “step up to the plate”.

It’s is a worthwhile effort and a good training exercise.

I hope to hear you on the air!

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Mark’s Almanac

“This place gets more rain in 12 months than some places get in a year” – Russell Coight – “All Aussie Adventures” 2001
The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaf, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And, it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but, leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide. But after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

October Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month Mercury shines at magnitude -0.8 low in the East about 45 minutes before sunrise.

Venus shines at magnitude –3.9 is low in the west-southwest at twilight. Start looking for her about 25 or 30 minutes after sunset.
Mars, at magnitude 0.0, is passing above the Sagittarius Teapot in the south-southwest at dusk.
Jupiter is hidden behind the Sun.
Saturn, magnitude +0.5 is far to the left of Mars at dusk, in the southwest; with the red star Antares twinkling at magnitude +1.0 a little to the left and 6 degrees below the sixth planet.
Uranus shining at magnitude 5.7, in Pisces is well up in the east after nightfall is complete. The blue-green planet will be at its closest approach to Earth on October 15 and its face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. This is the best time to view Uranus, but, due to its distance, the planet will only appear as a tiny blue-green dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.
Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius also is well up in the southeast after nightfall.
October’s first New Moon occurs October 1 at 00:11 UTC or Central Daylight Time being five hours behind, at 7:11 PM CDT on September 30.

Using the UTC format this would means October has two New Moons – more on this later.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 7. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

The first quarter moon will block the fainter meteors in the early evening. It will set shortly after midnight leaving darker skies for observing any lingering stragglers. Best viewing will be in the early evening from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Draco, but can appear anywhere in the sky

October’s Full Moon will occur October 15 at 04:23 UTC or 11:23 AM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Hunter’s Moon” so named by Native American tribes because at this time of year the leaves are falling and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

This Full Moon will be a “Supermoon”, the first of three for 2016. The Moon will be at its closest approach to the Earth and my look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

This isn’t that usual. Contrary to social media, the moon won’t be a “glorious orb looming in the heavens”, and I doubt it will have any “prophetic implications” concerning the upcoming November elections, though I do believe it may be an omen that my beloved Cubbies will make it to and WIN their first World Series since 1908.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet. Halley’s Comet is set to make its next closest approach to Earth, a much closer approach than the distant passage in 1986 when it and the Earth were on opposite sides of the solar system, on July 28, 2061. I will be 103 years old. So mark your calendars T-Minus 55 years and counting!

Earlier we mentioned the New Moon occurring on the night & morning of September 30 & October 1.

Basing this event on UTC instead of CDT, so it won’t mess up the article I’m writing, October’s second New Moon occurs October 20 at 17:38 UTC or 12:38 PM CDT, when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

You may remember that a second of Full Moon in a single month is popularly called a “Blue Moon”, but what about two New Moons in a single month?

A second New Moon in a month is a “Black Moon”.

Now a more persnickety definition, is the third Full Moon in a season which has four Full Moons is a Blue Moon and the third New Moon in a season which has four New Moons is a Black Moon.

By this definition, the next Black Moon will occur October 21, 2017.

A third definition says a Black Moon is a month with no Full Moon, which will occur in February 2018.
Which means both January and March 2018 will have two Full Moons or Blue Moons.

A fourth definition states that it is a month with no New Moon, which last happened in 2014, and will next occur on February 2033.

No one writes songs about Black Moons. “Black Moon, you saw me standing alone….”
It just doesn’t “sing”,

3388 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 15, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on October 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
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