Hi everyone, I hope you are staying cool in this summer heat. Our next meeting will occur July 14, as our new officers begin their new terms. Dues are now due, so break open the piggy bank, and renew your ALERT membership at our next meeting. See you there! ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… As we are entering the hottest weeks of the year, it’s a good time to talk about… HEAT & Its Dangers Heat and heat related illnesses are not something to be shrugged off. About 237 Americans die each year due to heat related illnesses. In arid regions such as the desert southwest, the heat lacks humidity, and though it will be blazing hot, the evaporation helps the body combat the heat, as evaporating sweat helps cool to body down. A “dry heat” is not as uncomfortable as the “humid heat” which we endure. In our semitropical climate, humidity from the Gulf works against our bodies cooling mechanisms – internal blood circulation adjustments, sweating and evaporation, not allowing the body to combat the heat, and we are in placed in a seriously dangerous situation. Though you are rapidly losing your body’s water reserves, up to 1.5 liters or 1.6 quarts per hour through sweating, the sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to dissipate the heat in the high humidity. We are familiar with the term “heat index”. This index was developed to help identify the danger zone, and express how the combined temperature and humidity “feels” or affects the human body. The Shaded Heat Index can be determined using this chart. I picked this version because it uses the Dewpoint. Some charts use Relative Humidity, which is fine, except the humidity is constantly varying with temperature fluctuations, while the Dewpoint usually remains fairly steady. Heat Index Chart (Temperature & Dewpoint) Dewpoint (° F) Temperature (° F) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 65 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 110 112 66 94 95 97 98 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 112 67 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 105 106 107 108 110 111 112 113 68 95 97 98 99 100 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 112 113 114 69 96 97 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 113 114 115 70 97 98 99 101 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 114 115 116 71 98 99 100 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 111 112 113 115 116 117 72 98 100 101 103 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 116 117 118 73 99 101 102 103 105 106 108 109 110 112 113 114 116 117 118 119 74 100 102 103 104 106 107 109 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 75 101 103 104 106 107 108 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 76 102 104 105 107 108 110 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 123 77 103 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 78 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 126 79 106 107 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 127 128 80 107 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 128 130 81 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 129 130 132 82 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 122 123 125 126 128 129 131 132 133 Note: Exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15° F HEAT INDEX EFFECTS 80 to 90 degrees – Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 90 to 105 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 105 to 130 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are likely, and heatstroke is possible, with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 130 degrees and higher – Heatstroke or sunstroke are highly likely with continued exposure. I hope you noticed the line stating that if you are in full sunlight the heat index can be up to 15 degrees higher than the indicated values. Be exceedingly careful with your exposure to the heat and sunlight. To help combat the heat danger, stay indoors as much as possible, hugging the air conditioner. Avoid strenuous activity. Wear loose, lightweight, light colored clothing made from cotton or linen, as they absorb your sweat and help with cooling. Your clothing is a vital defense. That’s why the age old habit of guys trying to act macho by stripping off as much as is legally possible, to show off their abs, pecs and biceps, isn’t the most intelligent move that one can make. You want to dress more like Sheik Omar, and less like a Krispy Critter. Wear a good sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher. Drink lots & lots of water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, as they dehydrate the body. Sports drinks are ok for a once one-jug drink to help replenish your electrolytes, but the body absorbs water much more quickly. Sports drinks are so loaded with minerals that the body misidentifies the juice as food and waits for it to be digested before sending it on to the lower innards to be absorbed into the body. Your dehydration worsens though your stomach is full of liquid. So make water your primary drink. Drink. Drink even if you aren’t thirsty. If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated. A rough guide to the minimum water intake needed to maintain body fluid while at rest in the shade is as follows: At 68 degrees drink 1.2 liters or 1.3 quarts At 77 degrees drink 1.4 liters or 1.5 quarts At 86 degrees drink 2.5 liters or 2.6 quarts At 95 degrees drink 5.1 liters or 5.4 quarts Note that just walking may double these requirements. It is better to drink small amounts of water, such as 250 – 350 liters or ¼ to 1/3 quarts every 20 minutes, rather than try to gulp large amounts of water every hour. To get down and earthy with the subject, if your urine is clear and there is a lot of it, you are properly hydrated, if this is not the case, if the urine dark or there is little or none being produced, you are in serious danger. Dehydration has been found to compromise mental function by dropping our brainpower by 25%. This keeps you from thinking straight & doing the smart things you need to do to help keep you above the daisies. Now let’s talk “pets” for a moment. One thing you should realize is that “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk. I once conducted an experiment by placing thermometers at different places on the ground to see what the critters & their footpads were having to endure. Some places, particularly the sidewalks and pavement the temperature easily reached 150 degrees. So, if you think, as was advocated on a local news program, that you are doing Old Shep a favor by taking him for a walk during the heat to keep him from being bored and flabby, I would suggest that you go barefoot with him. He can’t tell you the misery he is suffering, but I bet by your hopping, jumping and cussing that you will be able to decipher the message he has been sending more clearly – “Bubba, I told you this was a bad idea`.” You are not doing him a favor by forcing him to walk barefoot/bear paw on 140 degree pavement. Remember that dogs cannot tolerate too much heat. Their fur, which covers their entire bodies, prevents them from sweating. The only external surface not covered with fur is their paw pads — which explains the damp paw prints you might find on the sidewalk on hot summer days. They can have a heatstroke just as easily if not more so than you can. You don’t want to shave outdoor pets, by the way. If you remove their fur, you are removing the only protection they from getting a serious sunburn. Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together. Cats usually have enough sense to find a shady cool spot. Make sure their water bowl is full. Or better yet, keep them inside. If you can, make them a permanent indoor feature, as they live much longer indoors. That way dogs can’t get them and cars can’t squish them. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar. July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer. The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11. The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery. As you endure this heat, as mentioned in the preceding article, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun. The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley. This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS used for years. In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere. Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes. Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July. Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Looking towards the sky, Mercury is low in the glow of sunrise. Venus & Jupiter, the two bright “stars” you are seeing at sunset will be only 1/3 degrees apart on June 30 during and after evening twilight, in the west-northwest in Gemini. They will be only slightly more separated July 1. The Moon, Jupiter & Venus on June 20, 2015, by Mark Wells Mars is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius is highest in the South at sunset. To the lower left of Saturn twinkles the fiery orange star Antares. Uranus in Pisces is in the East before dawn begins to brighten. Neptune Aquarius is low in the Southeast before the first light of dawn. Overhead you will see the star Vega, one of the brightest stars in the heavens, which is located in the small constellation Lyra. Nearby is cross shaped Cygnus the swan. Binoculars reveal a sea of stars making up the Cygnus-Carina arm of the Milky Way Galaxy. Here the Kepler Space Telescope has found over 1000 planets, or more correctly “exoplanets” as they lie far beyond our solar system. July’s first Full Moon occurs July 1 at 9:19 PM CDT, and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”. On July NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft will arrive at Pluto after a nine and a half year journey. The probe, launched January 19, 2006 will be the first spacecraft to visit Pluto, and will give us our first close-up views of the dwarf planet and its moons. After passing Pluto, the probe will continue to the Kuiper Belt, a region of the Solar System extending from the orbit of Neptune to 50 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The doughnut shaped Kuiper Belt is similar to the asteroid belt, but 20 times as wide and 200 times as massive. It, like the asteroid belt consists of small bodies that are remnants of the Solar System’s formation, largely frozen material such as ammonia, methane and water. It is also the realm of three officially recognized dwarf planets – Pluto, Haumea & Makemake & probably several more yet to be detected. The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs July 15 at 8:24 PM CDT. The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th. This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour. Unfortunately a nearly Full Moon will wash out all but the brightest meteors. Still, it’s worth a peek. Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August. July will have a second Full Moon which will occur July 31 at 5:43 AM CDT. This, being a second Full Moon within the same month is often called, by modern definition, a “Blue Moon”. The older definition is “the third of four Full Moons in a single season. Sky and Telescope Magazine calls the modern definition “trendy” but, a “mistake”. This is interesting, since it was the March 1946 issue of Sky and Telescope which misinterpreted the definition and gave the current definition as “a second Full Moon in a single calendar month”, with no connection to the season. The next “old definition” Blue Moon will be May 21, 2016. 1854 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 25, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on July 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone, I hope all is going well & that you are finding a nice cool spot out of the pre-summer heat and showers. The biggest ALERT news of the month was our recent elections. At our last meeting the ALERT elections were held for the 2015 – 2016 term. The Officers for 2015 – 2016 are: President: Ronnie King WX4RON Vice-President & Membership: Roger Parsons KK4UDU NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas KV4S Secretary: Mike Lamb KK4OHW Operations: Steven Moss KB4FKN Training: Ronnie King WX4RON Treasurer: Johnny Knobloch KJ4OPX Public Information: Zac Hollingsworth W4ZAC Per the ALERT Bylaws our new Officers will assume their positions at the July 14 meeting. Thanks to all of our new officers for their service to our organization! One thing which will remain the same is our newsletter. I will continue on as the Editor-In-Chief, and hopefully will be able to provide interesting items for your enjoyment. I will also continue as the Net Manager of the ALERT Sunday Nite Net. If you have not checked in to our net I invite you to join us. We meet at 7PM Sunday on 146.88 MHz PL 88.5 hz. I hope to see you there! …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Proposed Amendments 4 & 5 At the May 12th ALERT Board of Directors meeting the following Amendments to the Constitution & Bylaws of ALERT were considered and approved by the Board. In compliance with ARTICLE XV, Section 1.2 an email notification was sent providing the required one month notification to the ALERT membership for their consideration of these proposed Amendments. The proposals will be discussed and voted on at the June meeting. Proposed Amendment 4 ARTICLE VIII Section 2. The Board of Directors shall be composed of the President, immediate past President, Trustee of the station and 3 operational “At Large” members appointed by the President. Two “At Large” members shall serve terms of one year and one “At Large” member shall serve for two years. The two-year member will be chosen every even year. Members are eligible for reappointment if so desired by the President. The President shall appoint members to fill any vacancies occurring within the year. (This adds an additional Board Member, so that we can facilitate Board business more efficiently.) Proposed Amendment 5 ARTICLE VI Section 1. The Officers of ALERT shall be: President Vice-President Treasurer / Membership Secretary NWS Liaison Operations Training Public Information (This transfers the Membership duties, which has been a combined position with Vice President position from the Vice-President to the Treasurer. This combined position will provide more efficient record keeping of ALERT members.) Please consider these Amendments, and plan to attend the June Meeting and let your voice be heard, Thanks …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 70% chance of a below normal season, with 6 to 11 named storms, 3 to 6 of which could become hurricanes, 0 to 2 possibly being category 3 or higher. There is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. They also caution not to automatically dismiss a “below normal season” as a minor thing. 1992 was a below normal season, and the first named storm, Andrew became a Category 5 storm, which devastated South Florida Even if there were only two named storms, and one is Katrina’s evil sister, it would be worse than having thirty five named storms that never approached land. This year our tropical season forgot to read the calendar, as we already have had a named storm – Tropical Storm Ana, which visited the Carolinas on May 10 with 60 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. Ana, which formed as a Subtropical Storm on May 8, was the earliest Atlantic Subtropical or Tropical cyclone since a storm also named “Ana” formed in April of 2003. It was also the earliest named storm to make landfall. Only the “Groundhog Day Storm” of 1952 struck earlier in the season. This Tropical Storm was detected, satellites not existing yet, off of the Yucatan Peninsula on February 2. A day later it struck near Cape Sable, Florida, headed for Miami and then off into the Atlantic, where it dissipated four days later. With the “official” 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans. Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways: 1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina. 2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20 tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period. 3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding. ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz. Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout. HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are: Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times. 3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday* 3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM 3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM 3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM 3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM 3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM * Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time. Wide Coverage Nets 14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed 3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern. Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.” Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”. Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this. Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio. Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ – Hurricane Forecast Models http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar, charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”. Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them. The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball: The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms. If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring. If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect. If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011. Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days. If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm. Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm. When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/, you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast. Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier. If not “more surreal & epic making me feel ecstatic”, to misuse the most grossly overused words in the verbiage of the moment. Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist. If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it. If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”. If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet. Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year. Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas. Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8. Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples. Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………. NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf For the Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf For the Eastern Pacific 2015 Tropical Cyclone Names The 2015 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Ana, Bill, Claudette, my old friend Danny, Ericka, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor & Wanda. Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2021. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms. If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day. What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages. The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1. Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms. Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years. The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland. The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred. Looking skyward, at the first of the month Mercury is hidden in the glow of the Sun. By the end of the month He will have emerged and will reach His highest elevation, 22.5 degrees from the Sun June 24, low in the Eastern sky just before sunrise. Venus, the brilliant “Evening Star”, blazes in the West in Gemini during and after evening twilight, setting in the west-northwest nearly two hours after dark. It is currently in “half-moon phase” in telescopes. She will be at her highest altitude on June 6, when she will be 45.4 degrees above the Sun. Mars is lost in the sunset. Jupiter at the Cancer / Leo border is high in the South is high in the West to the upper left of Venus. The two are moving towards each other and will be very close at the end of June, only 0.3 degrees apart on July 1, which will provide a spectacular sight in the twilight sky. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius shines low it the Southeast at twilight and is highest in the South at midnight. His rings are tilted 24 degrees from edgewise, making for a beautiful display in telescopes. Uranus in Pisces is very low in the East as dawn begins to brighten. Neptune is low in the East-Southeast before the first light of dawn. June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 2 at 11:19 AM CDT. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to harvest strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”. New Moon will occur June 16 at 9:05 AM CDT Summer Solstice will occur at 11:38 AM CDT on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.26 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Mark June 25 on your calendar and think about Christmas. Why? Because this is how Christmas, which is six months away, feels like in Australia and Brazil on December 25. The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years. Incidentally, though it may be too soon, and probably is too soon to say, there is a possibility that in six months we will have a Christmas comet – Comet Catalina visible in the evening sky. 1846 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ 1027 of these planets have been detected by NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope alone, which is looking at a small patch of sky in the constellations Cygnus, Lyra & Draco. How many other worlds lie outside of this little keyhole just now being peeked through? Are other eyes “out there” looking towards us, wondering as we do, if there is anyone else out there among the stars? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on June 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone, I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these spring days. Our May 12 ALERT meeting will feature our annual elections. If you are a paid up Operational or Supporting Member, which is a member interested in Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license (yet), you may vote in the 2015 – 2016 ALERT leadership elections. The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting. July is also when ALERT dues are due. Remember, if you want to respond to ALERT callouts or serve as an officer you MUST be current with your dues. Also, there will be a Board of Directors meeting preceding the regular 7 PM meeting at 6:30. I hope to see you there! …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50 Shades of GPS On April 9, 1998, one day after the F5 tornado, I was standing in the ruins of what had the day before been McDonald’s Chapel. The landscape was a scene on complete destruction, with no familiar landmarks. The only street sign left was mangled and folded together like praying hands, on which you could make out the words “Quebec Street”. What does one do when a community in an instant is made into a wilderness? How does one find their way, when nothing recognizable remains? It is in cases such as this, when the Global Positioning System proves an invaluable tool for emergency response. For, though the landmarks are gone, and the streets may be buried, it still remembers where you are and how to get you home. How much do you know about the GPS system? The GPS system, whose official name is NAVSTAR, is a Department Of Defense program, consists of a constellation of 32 satellites, which at an altitude of 17000 miles, orbit at 7000 MPH. The program was begun during the Nixon administration in 1973, and became fully operational in 1995. In 1996 President Clinton issued a policy directive declaring GPS to be a “dual use” system for both military and civilian use. GPS satellites circle the Earth twice a day continuously transmitting a signal to the Earth. The GPS receivers take these signals and compare the time that the signal was transmitted with the time that it was received. This time difference tells how far away the satellite is. With the distance from several satellites known, the receiver, using a mathematical principle called “trilateration” can determine the position and plot it on a map. Not unlike the system used by the old LORAN-C navigation system, which was decommissioned by President Obama in 2010. Being viewed as redundant alongside GPS after the Department of Homeland Security certified that LORAN was not needed as a backup for the GPS. This method of location is not the same as triangulation, where you take a compass bearing of an object from two or more locations, and where the bearings intersect on a map, the objects location is determined. With three satellites in view a GPS can determine latitude, longitude and movement. With four or more satellites in view, altitude can be determined. Newer units are very accurate because they utilize 12 parallel channel receivers, which, assuming the satellites are in range, allow them to receive 12 satellite signals simultaneously. These receivers are quick to lock onto signals, and are accurate to 50 feet. Differential GPS units correct GPS signal errors to an accuracy of 10 to 15 feet. The Coast Guard operates a DGPS correction service which consists of a series of towers that receive GPS signals and retransmits a corrected signal by beacon transmitters. To use this you need a differential beacon receiver and beacon antenna in addition to a GPS unit. GPS receivers with Wide Area Augmentation System – WAAS capability improve the accuracy to 10 feet. This system utilizes 25 ground stations spread over North America to correct the signals, and no additional equipment is required. Russia has a similar system called Globalnaya navigatsionnaya sputnikovaya sistema, or “GLObal NAvigation Satellite System” – GLONASS GLONASS consists of 24 satellites, and although coverage is better in the northern hemisphere, it has global coverage. The system was begun in 1976 and was completed in 1995. It then became neglected and deteriorated until 2001 when Vladimir Putin made the restoration of the system a top priority, which was completed in 2010. Like GPS, GLONASS was made available for public use in 2007 by a presidential decree by Vladimir Putin. GLONASS is the most expensive program of the Russian Federal Space Agency, with one third of its budget being dedicated to the system. There are some significant differences between GLONASS and GPS. GLONASS has fewer satellites in its constellation, with 24 satellites, versus the GPS constellation of 32. The GPS constellation circles the globe in 6 orbital planes, or paths of orbit, where GLONASS satellites use 3 orbital planes, in a slightly lower orbit. This means that with GLONASS, more satellites follow the same orbital path. For systems using GLONASS only, it may be more difficult to connect to available satellites. This could potentially lead to reduced positioning accuracy. The biggest difference between GPS and GLONASS is how they communicate with receivers. With GPS, satellites use the same radio frequencies but have different codes for communication. With GLONASS, satellites have the same codes but use unique frequencies. Despite these differences, GLONASS’s accuracy is comparable to that of GPS. You probably are already using GLONASS and are not even aware of it. Depending on the manufacturer of your smartphone, you may already have GLONASS capability in your device, Apple iPhones and a large number of Android devices use both GPS and GLONASS to ensure accuracy. If you are stuck in an area with a large amount of cloud coverage, or are surrounded by high-rise buildings, your device will use GLONASS in conjunction with GPS. This allows your device to be pinpointed by any of the fifty-five satellites around the world, increasing overall accuracy. However, GLONASS is typically only turned on when the GPS signal is poor in order to preserve the device’s battery. As for portable navigation devices, Garmin GLO is a portable GPS and GLONASS receiver which connects to a mobile device over Bluetooth, and provides better accuracy than any integrated receiver. GPS Quirks & Peculiarities A few years ago I was watching one of the “judge programs” that air in the afternoon. One Judge, a lady with an accent vaguely similar to Bugs Bunny was hearing a case where a gentleman was being sued for not fulfilling a promised work obligation. He admitted that he did not show up and do the promised work, and when asked why, he said he had entered the address in his GPS and it kept saying “no signal”. Hearing this, the Judge declared him a “liar”, since things like that certainly don’t happen with a GPS. She then asked the audience, saying with rolling eyes “has anyone here ever heard of such a thing?” This course, they thought this was ridiculous and laughed him to shame, and nodded their heads approvingly as the verdict went against the gentleman. Whether he was actually guilty as charged or not, I still don’t know, but, I distinctly remember saying to the TV “Oh yes they DO lose signals, you dimwitted wabbit.” As with all manmade devices, GPS units have their own quirks and peculiarities. Some common problems which will defeat a GPS’s accuracy or operation are: Atmospheric Delays – Satellite signals slow as they pass through the atmosphere, which affects the receiver’s calculation of distance from the satellite. The GPS system partially corrects for this type of error by using a built in model that calculates the average amount of delay. Signal Multipath – The GPS signal may reflect off of objects such as tall buildings or rock surfaces before it reaches the receiver. This effect increases the travel time of the signal, thereby causing errors. Receiver Clock Errors – A receiver’s quartz clock is not as accurate as the atomic clock onboard the GPS satellites. Therefore slight timing errors may occur. Orbital or Ephemeris Errors – Gravitational fields or solar storms can cause inaccuracies between the reported positions of the satellite and its actual location, for instance, during a solar storm the atmosphere expands outward into space, causing drag on the satellites temporarily slowing them. Number Of Satellites Visible – The more satellites that a GPS receiver can receive, the better the accuracy is. Buildings, terrain, electronic interference, or even dense foliage can block signal reflection, causing position errors or no signal at all. GPS units typically will not work indoors, underwater, or underground. Plus keep in mind that these satellites are not in a geosynchronous orbit, like communications satellites. They, being in a lower orbit are constantly changing position, in a never ending celestial shell game. Sometimes they just travel out of range. Satellite Geometry and Shading – this refers to the position of the satellites in relation to each other and the GPS receiver at any given time. The best satellite geometry occurs when the satellites are located at wide angles from each other. If they are too close to each other, signal interference can occur. Intentional Degradation of Satellite Signal – “Selective Availability” or SA is an intentional error that was introduced to GPS signals by the Department of Defense, to prevent our enemies from using our own GPS constellation for targeting weapons against us. The government turned off SA in May 2000, which improved accuracy, but, they can easily reintroduce the errors, if they determine that a probable threat exists. Radio Troublesome Traits – It should not be forgotten that GPS units (and cellphones for that matter) are, regardless of their sophistication, still radio receivers. Some are more sensitive than others and can pick up marginal signals better, and some are more selective than others and are less susceptible to interference from stronger nearby signals. With cellphones, to use old CB terms, some are “Alligator Stations”, transmitting big signals, but, having sorry reception, and others are “Elephant Stations”, with great reception, but, transmitting wimpy signals. Some are quicker to drop a call when the carrier is lost than others which might “keep the squelch open” longer waiting for the signal to return. Ordinary Electronic Problems – These would include electronic component failure, dead batteries, running over the poor thing with your truck, dropping it into the toilet and so forth. Can’t Find It Issues – Ever lose anything right at the wrong moment? For these reasons, though I certainly love my GPS, for some purposes, such as hiking, I actually consider it as a backup to being able to read and use a map and compass. Let’s talk about compass APPs on Smartphones for a moment. Whether you download a compass APP or one comes “factory built” in your phone, they both operate in the same manner and with presumably the same results accuracy wise. How does this device work? Smartphones have a small magnetometer that measures changes in the Earth’s magnetic field and an accelerometer that tracks the movement of the device. The accelerometer gets information regarding the phone’s position in space. The app combines the heading information from the magnetometer with the roll and pitch data from the accelerometer to work out the exact orientation of the unit as you move the device. This is all independent from GPS signals or cell tower pings, though some smartphones will also use GPS data to determine latitude and longitude. Are these compass apps accurate? Based on my own experimentation, the answer is “at best, more times than not”. I’ve seen them work fine one day and the next day have them indicate “north”, when it was pointing dead east. I’ve also seen them change orientation for no apparent reason and had them jump back and forth with no movement occurring or outside influence to explain the erratic behavior. I consider it usable, but, look at it with a jaded eye, remembering that it has some quirks. “Real” compasses have their quirks also, by the way. For instance, if you use one near a metal object or magnet (think cellphone speakers here) it will throw the needle off. This is called “magnetic deviation”. Also, there are geographic locations possessing “magnetic anomalies”, which are defined as “a local variation in the Earth’s magnetic field resulting from variations in the chemistry or magnetism of the rocks.” An example of this is at Goat Hill, the location of the Alabama State Capitol. No joking intended, there is a magnetic anomaly on the hill which causes compass errors. Though I can find no reference for this online, I know that there was, and presumably still is a USGS marker on the hill near the capitol indicating this, and the amount of error involved. Most compasses are usually slightly off target due to “magnetic declination or variation error”. The Earth’s North Magnetic Pole is not at the physical or geographic North Pole, but actually near Baffin Island in Canada. A compass does not point along lines of longitude, but, rather along the lines of the Earth’s magnetic field, which in the case of Central Alabama, are off 3 degrees to the west, and due to the Earth having a molten core, the lines are drifting slightly further westward each year. For short distance navigation, this isn’t a problem, but, for longer ranges, then you would have to offset your reading 3 degrees to the east for true North to match USGS maps and charts. Also, not all compasses are created with equal quality. When choosing one, take several off of the shelf and keep these three guidelines in mind. 1. Fancy looks, doesn’t necessarily mean fancy results. 2. They should all be pointing in the same direction. 3. After turning a 360 circle where you are standing, they should quickly return to the North position. Just remember “Mark’s Rule of Compasses” – “If they don’t work in Walmart, they won’t work in the field either”. I use a Silva brand compass, which has always served me well. It’s like with any device or technology. You need to learn and understand the limitations of the resources that you are using and then learn to work around those limitations. These, and having backup plans, are always keys to success. Just remember the quote from the great Yogi Berra – “You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there.” ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ALERT Sunday Night April Net Report Date NCS Checkins Traffic Apr 8 N4HEY 45 0 Apr 12 KK4YPK 41 0 Apr 19 KK4NGD 46 0 Apr 26 WD4NYL 42 0 ———————————————— TOTAL 174 0 ——————————————————- YEARLY TOTAL 778 0 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Mark’s Almanac May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May. Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers. On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16. Rainfall decreases in May as the Bermuda High strengthens & begins rerouting storm systems northward. The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent. The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount. Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. In 110 years there have been 14 named storms. Looking skyward, Mercury is rising from the glow of sunset, and on May 7 will reach his highest elevation over the Western horizon, or “greatest eastern elongation” of 21.2 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset. Mercury will soon sport a new crater, as the US Messenger space probe will impact on Mercury on April 30, having run out fuel, successfully ending its mission having orbited the planet since March 18, 2011, and returning over 250,000 pictures of the heavily cratered planet. Venus, the “Evening Star”, blazes in the West during and after evening twilight, setting in the west-northwest nearly two hours after dark. Mars is deep in the sunset near Mercury. Jupiter in Cancer is high in the South as the first evening stars appear, and is the second brightest object in the evening sky, after Venus. Saturn in Scorpius rises around 10 or 11 PM and is highest in the south in the early morning hours. The ringed planet will be at its closest approach or “opposition” to Earth on May 23rd and its face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. This is the best time to view and photograph Saturn and its moons. A medium-sized or larger telescope will allow you to see Saturn’s rings and a few of its brightest moons. I guess the term “ringed planet” is somewhat out of date now, since US probes detected a faint ring system around Jupiter and a ring system around Uranus. But, their rings you can’t see from Earth, Saturn’s you can. Uranus is deep in the glow of the Sun. Neptune is low in the East at the beginning of dawn. Full Moon will occur May 3th at 10:32 PM CDT. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, but has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”. The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, a minor shower, will peak May 5 & 6 with 30 meteors per hour. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley. The nearly full moon will be a big problem this year blocking out all but the brightest meteors. If you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky. New Moon will occur May 17 at 11:13 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky. 1831 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 23, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on May 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,   I hope this finds you doing well.   Just a brief reminder, that at our upcoming April meeting the Nominating Committee will issue its recommendations for the upcoming May ALERT elections.  Nominations from the floor will be allowed the night of the elections in May.   I hope to see you there!     ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….  

Impact Based Warnings Implemented

 

Beginning April 1^st, 2015, The NWS Birmingham, Huntsville and Peach Tree City Forecast Offices are implementing “Impact Based Warnings”.

  These new Impact Based Warnings are designed to improve communication of critical information through the use of specific statements, with easy to find hazard and impact information and the use of summary tags at the bottom of warnings.   These new warnings originate from NWS findings learned after the May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri EF5 tornado.  This storm caught the city largely off guard, leaving 158 people dead and injuring more than 1,000 people, making it the deadliest tornado in the United States since record-keeping began in 1950.   An NWS assessment found that most of the residents of Joplin found out about this warning from the outdoor warning systems, but, before seeking shelter, they sought out more information from additional sources, such as media outlets, wanting to confirm that a tornado was actually touching down in their vicinity and that it would affect their location, rather than another part of the county.   It was discovered that the residents of Joplin simply weren’t taking tornado warnings seriously.   The NWS tried to think of a way to stress importance on future storms that may have similar impacts as the Joplin tornado, and this resulted in the new Impact Based Warnings.   The goal of these new warnings is to provide more information to the media and Emergency Managers, to help them inform the public of the reality of the threat and the probable consequences of the storm. Citing a Montgomery Advertiser article from March 27, 2015: “The potential damage and threat of the storms will be key to the impact-based warning system”, said Kevin Laws, of the NWS office in Birmingham. The tuned advisories will be for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. The most common time for severe weather in Alabama is March through May, NWS data shows.

“The impact-based warnings will give more detailed information about the threats the severe storm may pose for an area,” he said. “In the event of a tornado warning, it will tell if it is a radar-indicated tornado, or if there is a confirmed tornado on the ground. We want to give the public as much information as possible, as quickly as possible, so they can take the steps to protect themselves and their families during times of severe weather.”

 

The impacts will range from “Expect wind damage to roofs or siding and hail damage to vehicles” for severe thunderstorms to “You are in a life-threatening situation,” reserved for the most powerful tornado.

 

“We hope these enhancements will make our warnings more effective and easier to use,” said Jim Stefkovich, meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham office, in a YouTube video posted to discuss the changes. “We want to make the warnings as effective as possible. The words we use may motivate people to take the proper precautions when they are threatened by tornadoes or severe storms.”

 

Currently tornado warnings are of one category.

 

The impact-based system will divided tornado warnings into three categories:

 

1. The Base Warning which will be used for the majority of warnings

2. Particularly Dangerous Situation PDS warnings for more powerful storms

3. Tornado Emergency or Catastrophic Warning, reserved for the most rare, most potentially   dangerous tornadoes.

  A “Tornado Emergency” will vividly explain the likely devastation, urging those in the path to seek immediate shelter underground or in a tornado shelter or face unsurvivable conditions. These warnings are for “catastrophic” tornadoes, those likely to cause “complete destruction of neighborhoods,” including “many well built homes and businesses,” according to Jim Keeney of the NWS Central Regional Headquarters.   Examples of the format of these warnings, courtesy of the NWS Peachtree City Office are as follows:     Changes to Warning Text Specific Statements Specific phrases will be used in Tornado Warnings for both the considerable and catastrophic tags.       Hazard and Impact Information Each Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warning will contain individual lines that clearly state hazard and impact information.         Tags Tags will appear at the bottom of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, and in the Severe Weather Statements that update the warnings. In a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, tags will be used to define:

• hail size
• wind speed
• possible tornado (if necessary)

In a Tornado Warning, two types of tags can be used:

• Tornado tag (always used)
  • radar indicated
  • observed
• Damage threat tag (optional)
  • considerable damage
  • catastrophic damage

 

An recent example would be:

  BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA 756 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…   JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…   * UNTIL 900 PM CDT   * AT 755 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER   GRAYSVILLE…OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUMITON…MOVING EAST AT 30   MPH     HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL     SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED     IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE            TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.   * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…   BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…VESTAVIA HILLS…HOMEWOOD…MOUNTAIN BROOK…   TRUSSVILLE…HUEYTOWN…GARDENDALE…IRONDALE…LEEDS…MOODY…   FAIRFILED…FULTONDALE…SUMITON…CENTER POINT…PLEASANT GROVE…   CLAY…PINSON…TARRENT AND MIDFIELD.    PRECAUTIONARY PREPARDNESS ACTIONS…  PREPARE IMMEDIATLEY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND  LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE.  STAY AWAY FROM  WINDOWS.    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IT OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY LEAD TO  FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.   Hopefully these new warnings will persuade the public to heed the warnings and to make rapid wise decisions, while the time to act and react remains.   For time is our greatest enemy.     ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….       ALERT Sunday Night Net Report   Date      NCS               Checkins   Traffic Mar 1   KK4YPK                   52               0 Mar 8   KK4NGD                  44               0 Mar 15 WD4NYL                   27                0 Mar 22 KK4NGD                    49                0 Mar 29 WD4NYL                   42                0   ——————————————————- TOTAL                                  214               0     ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………       Mark’s Almanac   The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”.  This time of year being when buds open.  It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.   Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s was March 26.  The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.   April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain.  April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.   April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible.  There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March.  25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.   From April 1950 to 2014, 8304 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2013, 1770 deaths and 29,090 injuries.   As of 2011, Alabama ranked fifth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois & Kansas, all belonging to the “over 400 club” for April since 1950.   As of June 2013 Alabama and Oklahoma are tied as having the most F5 & EF5 tornadoes, both having had 7 F5 or EF5 tornadoes.  In fact until the May 20, 2013 Moore Oklahoma EF5 tornado, Alabama lead the nation in the most violent tornadoes.   The Moore Oklahoma tornado was notable not only for its strength, but, also for what I consider the unfortunate or unwise advice given by Oklahoma City’s KFOR Meteorologist Mike Morgan telling his viewers at least eight times to get in their cars and flee south of the city as the large rain wrapped tornado rapidly bore down on the city.  Advising this though admitting that the interstate was already a “parking lot”, since it was rush hour, and then later advising people twice to “abandon your cars” as the storm reached the city and its helpless commuters.   “Unfortunately there are hundreds and hundreds of cars on the road……a lot of people are panicking trying to leave their house…..you really can’t move very much.”  –  Chase Thomason KFOR   Not exactly the best advice from my perspective.   Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:   April 18, 1953 F3   Lee & Russell County          6 dead 195 injured April 18, 1953 F3   Shelby County                     8 dead 495 injured April 15, 1956 F4   Jefferson County    25 dead 200 injured     “McDonald Chapel Tornado” April 18, 1969 F4   Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties     2 dead   15 injured   April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949.  The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado.  The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day.   Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio.  The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “The Day of 100 Tornadoes”, which in total produced 148 tornadoes including 30 F4 and 6 F5 tornadoes, killing 315 people and injuring over 5,000 people.   April 3, 1974   F5   Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured    April 3, 1974   F4   Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured   

April 3, 1974   F5   Limestone-Madison                     28 dead 260 injured

April 4, 1977   F5   Jefferson County                         22 dead 130 injured    “Smithfield Tornado” April 1, 1998   F3   Russell County                              2 dead   23 injured April 8, 1998   F5   Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured   “Oak Grove Tornado”   April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,   with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada.  April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes.  Of 348 people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.   Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.   April 27, 2011   F5   Marion County                 18 dead 100 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured April 27, 2011   F3   Marion County                 7 dead 100 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured April 27, 2011   F3   Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured April 3, 2012     F2   Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured   In April it pays to look upon the sky with a jaundiced eyed, except, of course, at night.   Looking skyward, Mercury is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise.   Venus, the “Evening Star”, blazes in the West during and after evening twilight.   Mars is below Venus in the evening sky, but, is only 1% as bright as his much brighter sister.   Jupiter in Cancer is shining high in the Southeast sky as the first evening stars appear.   Saturn in Scorpius rises around midnight and is highest in the south just before dawn.  His rings are tilted a wide 24.9 degrees to our line of sight, with his north pole tilting towards Earth, as it is Summer in the northern hemisphere of Saturn.   Uranus and Neptune are hidden behind the glare of the Sun.   April’s Full Moon was known as “Full Pink Moon” in Native American folklore as it marked the reappearance of pink wild ground phlox.  This will occur April 4 at 7:05 AM.  This moon was also called by various tribes, the “Sprouting Grass Moon”, “Growing Moon”, “Egg Moon” and “Fish Moon”, as this is when shad swam upstream to spawn.   Also, on April the 4, there will be a total lunar eclipse.  This eclipse will be visible through most of North America, South America, Australia and eastern Asia.    You will notice that I underlined the word “most of North America”.   We are in the area outside of “most”, as the eclipse will be occurring at our moonset on that date, which occurs at 6:36 AM.     The eclipse begins at 4:01 AM as the first traces of the Earth’s shadow begins darkening the moon. The moon sets late during the “partial phase” and then goes into total eclipse at 7:01 AM, after it has sunk below our western horizon.   The farther west you go, the more eclipse you will see.  Visited Dallas lately?   The next total lunar eclipse will be on September 27, 2015 and this one will be visible in Birmingham.   New Moon will occur April 18 at 1:56 PM CDT.  This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.   The Lyrid Meteor Shower occurs on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23.   This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.   The first quarter moon will exit shortly after midnight, and leave a dark sky for observing.   This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.   1822 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/   One of them has been confirmed to be emitting a series of radio signals, possibly produced by an alien civilization, on 27.185 MHz.   Oh, “April Fool” by the way…   ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………   This month’s meeting will be on April 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.   If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone.  The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter   www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/   Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database