A flashback to June 2007…..

“Welcome to the new ALERT Newsletter!

This newsletter is designed to keep members & interested “lurkers” informed as to the news and activities of your ALERT. Comments, suggestions & additions are more than welcome.”

With that simple introduction, the current ALERT Newsletter was born….

Welcome to the 100th Edition of the ALERT Newsletter!

This newsletter was actually designed to be “friendly spam” invading peoples email inboxes and gently tapping them on the shoulder and reminding them that “ALERT is still here, don’t forget about us”. Reverse psychology of the “out of sight, out of mind” principle.

Even if one never opens the email, you can’t ignore us….were still here!

Also, it was hoped to update our activities, provide some interesting articles and serve as a training tool.

Over the years we’ve dealt with training, procedural problems, ham political problems aka whining, emergency preparedness and of delved into astronomy with “Mark’s Almanac”.

The ALERT Newsletter has been well received, with very few negative comments.

One thing to be remembered is that this is YOUR newsletter. That being said, I need articles and ideas. Sometimes I can’t think of a single thing to put in the main article. You would be surprised at how many “bottom of the 9th inning” articles have suddenly popped into my head and been quickly written.

So, to put it mildly HELP!!!

What is the future of the newsletter?

At some point I will pass the torch to someone else and hopefully there will be someone there to take the torch.

One unique thing about the ALERT Newsletter is that IT STILL EXISTS. Once upon a time there were quite a few newsletters being produced by various local clubs and groups. Now they are all gone, or have devolved into a monthly email meeting reminder.

This is actually the second incarnation of an ALERT newsletter. When ALERT was founded back in 1996 there was a short-lived newsletter called the “ALERT News”.

Hopefully the current newsletter, now in its 8th year, will in whatever form my eventual successors choose, be here for decades to come.

It’s not going anywhere soon, and neither am I.

So sit back, relax and welcome to edition 100!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

From Mark’s Weather Archives
“Weather Folklore And Wisdom From Divers Sources”

(Some true, some just for fun, you get to observe and decide which is which)

“But He replied to them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?” Matthew 16: 2 &3

“The hollow winds begin to blow, the clouds look black, the grass is low;
The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep, and spiders from their cobwebs peep.
Last night the sun went pale to bed, the moon halos hid her head;
The boding shepherd heaves a sigh, For see, a rainbow spans the sky.
The walls are damp, the ditches smell, closed is the pink-eyed pimpernel.
Hark how the chairs and tables crack! Old Betty’s nerves are on the rack;
Loud quacks the duck, the peacocks cry, the distant hills are seeming nigh.
How restless are the snorting swine, the busy flies disturb the kine,
Low o’er the grass the swallow wings, the cricket, too, how sharp he sings!
Cat on the hearth, with velvet paws, sits wiping o’er her whiskered jaws;
Through the clear streams the fishes rise, and nimbly catch the incautious flies.
The glowworms, numerous and light, illumined the dewy dell last night;
At dusk the squalid was seen, hopping and crawling o’er the green;
The whirling dust the wind obeys, and in the rapid eddy plays;
The frog has changed his yellow vest, and in a russet coat is dressed.
Though June, the air is cold and still, the mellow blackbird’s voice is shrill;
My dog, so altered in his taste, quits mutton bones on grass to feast;
And see yon rooks, how odd their flight! They imitate the gliding kite,
And seem precipitate to fall, as if they felt the piercing ball.
‘Twill surely rain; I see with sorrow, Our jaunt must be put off to-morrow.” – Dr. Edward Jones

“Infallible signs of Rainy Weather, from the Observations of divers Animals!
If Ducks or Drakes their Wings do flutter high
Or tender Colts upon their Backs do lie,
If Sheep do bleat, or play, or skip about,
Or Swine hide Straw by bearing on their Snout,
If Oxen lick themselves against the Hair,
Or grazing Kine to feed apace appear,
If Cattle bellow, grazine from below,
Or if Dogs Entrails rumble to and fro,
If Doves or Pigeons in the Evening come
Later than usual to their Dove-House Home,
If Crows and Daws do oft themselves be-wet,
Or Ants and Pismires Home a-pace do get,
If in the dust Hens do their Pinions shake,
Or by their flocking a great Number make,
If Swallows fly upon the Water low,
Or Wood-Lice seem in Armies for to go,
If Flies or Gnats, or Fleas infest and bite,
Or sting more than they’re wont by Day or Night,
If Toads hie Home, or Frogs do croak amain,
Or Peacocks cry
Soon after look for Rain! “

“Frog goes a hoppin’, rain comes a droppin’”

Crickets chirp faster when it’s warm and slower when it is cold.
Crickets can serve as thermometers. Tradition says that if you count the cricket’s chirps for 14 seconds and then add 40, you will obtain the temperature in Fahrenheit at the cricket’s location.

Or you can cheat and use the NWS Cricket Chirp Calculator http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_cricketconvert
Katydids also can give you the temperature. Per the Mississippi State Extension Services “The Gloworm” count the number of calls per minute, add 161 and divide by 3.
They also say that the first killing frost comes precisely three months after the first katydids begin to sing. In late summer when they begin to call during the day from deep shade, frost is six weeks away. Keep your ears open and mark that calendar.
If a cat sits with its back to a heat source expect cold weather.
If a cat takes shelter behind furniture or slinks along the ground for no apparent reason, a thunderstorm may be approaching.
If a dog starts trembling, panting and trying to hide for no apparent reason, he also may hear a thunderstorm approaching. Or an earthquake, some say.
“If your dog howls at the moon it signifies an early snow.”
Ants shore up their anthills before a rain.
Roaches suddenly appearing in houses that normally have none signal rain.
Insects will flee to higher ground before a prolonged rain. (I observed this on Red Mountain as Katrina approached the coast)
If the sun shines while snow is falling, expect more snow very soon.
The length of a recently deceased goose breastbone at Thanksgiving indicates the length of the ensuing winter, while the color of the breastbone indicates its severity. A plain white breastbone indicates a mild winter. A mottled breastbone indicates a more severe winter, and the more mottled the breastbone the more severe the winter to come.
The deeper squirrels bury their nuts, the lower the lowest temperature will be for the upcoming winter.
A ring around the sun or moon indicates rain or snow within 12 to 24 hours.
If the Moon has two rings encircling it, expect snowfall within 24 hours.
Sundogs indicate possible rain in 24 to 48 hours.
Expect a tough Winter is ahead if:
“Corn husks are thick and tight…
Apple skins are tough…
Birds migrate early…
Squirrels tails are very bushy…
Berries and nuts are plentiful…
Bees build their nests high in the trees.”

“Squirrels gathering nuts in a flurry, will cause snow to gather in a hurry.”
“Flowers bloomin’ in late Autumn, a sure sign of a bad Winter comin’.”
“As high as the weeds grow, so will the bank of snow.”
Thunder in the Fall foretells a cold Winter.
“Onion skins very thin, Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough, Coming Winter cold and rough.”

Bees and wasps retreating to their hives and nests indicate rain.

Likewise, bees, wasps, spiders and birds reappearing mean the storms end is near.

The severity of Winter is determined by how far down the feathers have grown on a partridge’s leg. I know I check my partridges often…

The wider the brown (middle) band on a woolly bear caterpillar, the milder the Winter.

If there is thunder in Winter, it will snow 7 days later.

“No weather is ill, if the wind be still.”

“Rain before seven, fine before eleven.”

“A cow with its tail to the West makes the weather best,
A cow with its tail to the East makes the weather least.”

“A sunshiny shower won’t last half an hour!”

“Mackerel skies and mare’s tails make ships carry lowered sails.”

“Mares tales, storms and gales. Mackerel sky, not 24 hours dry.”

“The rain it raineth every day
On the just and unjust fella.
But mostly on the just fella,
because the unjust stole the just’s umbrella!”

The louder the frog, the more the rain.

“When the wind is blowing in the North
No fisherman should set forth,
When the wind is blowing in the East,
‘Tis not fit for man nor beast,
When the wind is blowing in the South
It brings the food over the fish’s mouth,
When the wind is blowing in the West,
That is when the fishing’s best!”

“Wind in the East – the Fish bite the least.
Wind in the West – the Fish bite the best.”

If smoke goes up – clear, smoke comes down – moisture on the way.

“In the morning mountains (of clouds), in the evening fountains.”

“When Windows won’t open,
And the salt clogs the shaker,
The weather will favour
The umbrella maker!”

“If the moon shows a silver shield,
Be not afraid to reap the field,
But if she rises haloed round,
Soon well tread on deluged ground.”

“If fleecy white clouds cover the heavenly way, no rain should mar your plans that day.”

A frosty night means clear weather.

Clear night, cold night, cloudy night, a warmer night.

Sounds are louder on a cloudy day, also, distant sounds, like smoke, are carried by the wind.

The higher the clouds, the finer the weather.

“Rain foretold, long last. Short notice, soon will pass.”

“When the dew is on the grass,
Rain will never come to pass.
When grass is dry at morning light,
Look for rain before the night.”

Many birds roosting on wires or gathering on beaches means rain.

Birds are natural windvanes, when on trees or power lines they point towards the wind so their feathers don’t get ruffled.

Many, many blackbirds covering the ground means a cold front is approaching. (My piano teacher told me it meant snow, but, I have found it does signal a cold front.)

The loud, shrill buzz of the cicada warned of long, hot days ahead.

Flies clustered on windows and screens predicted a cold front was on the way.

“When bubbles are rising on the surface of coffee and they hold together, good weather is coming; if bubbles break up, weather you don’t need is coming.”

“A sunshiny shower, last half an hour.”

“Rainbow at night – shepherd’s delight. Rainbow in morning – shepherds warning.”

“When ditches and ponds offend the nose, look for rain and stormy blows.”

Aching joints foretell bad weather.

Chickweed and mimosa close their leaves before a rain.

Dandelion and daisy blossoms close before a storm.

“When the leaves of trees turn over, it foretells windy conditions and possible severe weather

“A large crop of acorns = a harsh winter is due”

“Flowers smell best just before rain”

“When the dogwood flowers, there shall be no more frosts.”

“Ash (leaves appearing) before oak, the summers a soak. Oak before ash, the summer’s a splash.”

“When the rooster goes crowing to bed, he will rise with a watery head.”

“If spiders are many and spinning their webs, the spell will soon be very dry.”

“If wasps build their nests high, the winter will be long and harsh.”

“When the birds are flying low, expect rain and a blow.”

“When geese cackle, it will rain.”

“If the sparrow makes a lot of noise, rain will follow.”

“Trout jump high when a rain is nigh.”

“Pigs gather leaves and straw before a storm

“When birds roost close to the ground – rain or snow are due.”

“Pale moon rains, red moon blows. White moon neither rains nor blows.”

If cumulus clouds are smaller at sunset than at noon, expect fair weather

“A round topped cloud and flattened base, carries rainfall in its face.”

“When mountains and cliffs in the clouds appear, some sudden and violent showers are near.”

And, finally…

“Whether the weather be fine
Or whether the weather be not
Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot
We’ll weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not”

Try these out, watch and see, if a good weather prognosticator thou canst be…

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaf, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And, it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but, leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide. But after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month Mercury is hidden in the glare of the Sun. But, at the month progresses He will emerge in the predawn morning sky and reach his highest elevation above the horizon on October 16. At that time He will be 18.1 degrees from the Sun. Look for Him low in the Eastern sky just before sunrise.

Venus is at Her greatest brilliance at magnitude -4.8. Rising well before sunrise between 3 and 4 AM, She will probably trigger reports of UFO sightings. In a telescope She will display a crescent shape.
She will move higher and higher in the predawn morning sky until reaching her maximum altitude on October 26, when she will be 46.4 degrees from the Sun.

Mars, 400 times fainter than Venus, is 10 degrees to the lower left of Venus at dawn, and moving towards each other day by day. On Friday the 25th He will pass very close to the star Regulus, which is slightly brighter than Mars.

Jupiter is even lower in the east during dawn, moving towards Venus. They will be very close to each other on the morning of the 26th, as they reach conjunction, being only 1 degree apart. On the morning of October 28th Mars will join them forming a rare three planet conjunction, with the planets forming a tight 1 degree triangle in the early morning sky, with the star Regulus lingering nearby. Look to the East at sunrise for this very rare spectacular.

Left out of all the fun, Saturn shines at the Libra/Scorpius border in the southwest at dusk, moving lower and lower near the orange star Antares.

Uranus in Pisces has risen in the east by 10 PM. On October 11 Uranus will reach His closest approach to Earth and at magnitude +5.7 will be on the threshold of naked eye visibility in dark skies, away from city lights, all night long. This is the best time to try to observe this distant world. But, due to its distance, it will appear only as a blue-green dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.

Neptune at magnitude +7.8 in Aquarius has risen in the southeast by 10 PM.

On October 1 Comet US10 Catalina may reach naked eye visibility. For now this comet is a Southern Hemisphere event, however after it swings around the Sun on November 15, it will surge into view for Northern Hemisphere observers and may be easily visible in the Northeastern early morning sky at magnitude +3 from late November into January. It will be very close to the star Arcturus on New Year’s night.

Will it live up to expectations or fizzle is too soon to say. But, so far it has closely matched its predicted brightness levels.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 8. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

New Moon occurs October 13 at 7:06 PM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet. Halley’s Comet is set to make its next closest approach to Earth, a much closer approach than the distant passage in 1986 when it and the Earth were on opposite sides of the solar system, on July 28, 2061. I will be 103 years old. So mark your calendars T-Minus 56 years and counting!

By the way, they say that the passage in 2134 will be even better than the one in 2061. I bet you can’t wait for that one!

October’s Full Moon will occur October 27 at 7:05 AM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Hunter’s Moon” so named by Native American tribes because at this time of year the leaves are falling and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

This will be the last of 2015’s three Supermoons.

1892 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 18, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on October 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope all are doing well. As I write this, I see the first signs of Fall. The air is a little less humid and the temperatures just a tad less oppressive. Most notable is the view out of my office window as bright yellow spots go flapping and gliding by as the butterflies are migrating, taking an exact South-southeast course to who knows where.

Oh, and are you ready for some football?

I hope you have a good month, and I hope to see you at our next meeting, which will be on September 8.

Roll Tide & War Eagle.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Hurricane Season’s Peak

With the beginning of September we enter the peak of hurricane season, and whether it is an active season or a quiet season, we must always keep a wary eye towards the coast. For even a mild season can produce a catastrophic hurricane. And it only takes one to reap havoc and destruction that takes years to rebuild from.

One disturbing trend that I seem to see more and more of is the major news networks choosing to “embellish” for attention. For instance I heard them describe Tropical Storm Ana as a “massive storm”, a “monster storm” and so forth, when it was “just” a tropical storm. Not to be ignored for sure, but, not to be confused with Noah’s Flood either.

Personally I believe they should reserve such dramatics for true “monster storms” such as your Ivans Katrinas and Opals, so that the general public’s senses don’t become numbed by over exaggeration. For instance, I regularly hear statements such as “a storm of historic proportions”, “110 million Americans at risk as major storms sweep across the nation”. Making me think “oh please, why don’t we get just a little bit more dramatic.”

Now if James Spann or Brian Peters say “we’re not trying to unduly alarm folk, but, how well can you tread water?” I’m heading to Mt. Cheaha to practice raft building skills, for I trust them.

But, for the others, they should realize that not every storm is “historic, epic, of Biblical proportions”, and they should not be being described as such just for ratings.

With that introduction, to put tropical cyclone damage potential in a more realistic light I present the following:

Tropical Cyclone Potential Impacts
Based on information from the NWS Brownsville Office

Descriptions are based on the hardest hit places, usually near the storms core and right quadrant.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(20 to 38 MPH)
Storms are not named at this point, but are given numbers such as “94L”

Potential for Little to No Impact: No discernible threat to life and property; appreciable wind damage is unlikely. Sustained winds to remain below tropical storm force (39 mph); breezy to windy conditions may still be present.

TROPICAL STORM
(39 to 73 mph)
Ana 2015
Bill 2015
Alberto 1994

Potential for Low but Concerning Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of minor to locally moderate wind damage. If realized, expect damage to unanchored mobile homes, screened patios, carports, and awnings; loose shingles will be blown off roofs. Loose objects will be blown around and become dangerous projectiles. Driving conditions will be hazardous on bridges and causeways, especially for high profile vehicles. Scattered power outages will occur, especially in areas with above ground lines. Large branches will break from trees; some shallow-rooted and diseased trees will be blown down. Rainfall can cause severe flooding.

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
(74 to 95 mph)
Babe 1977
Danny 1985
Danny 1997

Potential for Moderate Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of moderate wind damage. If realized, most mobile homes will experience moderate to substantial damage; those of poor construction will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will have significant damage to shingles, siding, and gutters; more serious structural damage is possible. Unprotected and exposed windows are at risk of being blown out. Many screened patios will be damaged. Some well-constructed homes will also see shingle and siding damage. Unfastened light to moderate weight items will become airborne, causing additional damage and possible injury. Hundreds of power lines will be blown down; local outages will affect entire neighborhoods. Many large branches of healthy trees will be snapped, and rotting small to medium sized trees will be uprooted. Numerous palm fronds will be blown down, and minor to moderate damage will occur to citrus orchards and newly planted lowland crops.

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
(96 to 110 mph)
Diana 1990,
Arthur 2014

Potential for High Impact: Dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of major wind damage. If realized, the majority of older mobile homes will be severely damaged or destroyed. Those that remain will be uninhabitable until repaired. Houses of poor to average construction will have major damage including partial wall collapse and roofs being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable until repaired. Well-constructed houses will have minor to moderate damage to shingles, siding, and gutters. Many unprotected and exposed windows will be blown out. Partial roof failure is expected in industrial parks, especially to those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings. Older low-rising apartment roofs may also be torn off, as well as siding and shingle damage. Airborne debris will cause damage, injury, and possible death. Power outages will be widespread, and could continue for multiple weeks in some areas. Numerous power lines will be pulled down, and a number of power poles will fall. All trees with rotting bases will uproot or snap. Nearly all large healthy branches will snap. Some healthy trees will uproot, especially where ground is saturated. Major damage is expected to citrus orchards. Most newly planted crops will be damaged.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
(111 to 130 mph)
Opal (at landfall) 1995
Ivan (at landfall) 2004
Katrina (at landfall) 2005

Potential for Extreme Impact: Extremely dangerous and life-threatening winds may occur. Aggressive preparations should be made for the threat of devastating to catastrophic wind damage. Devastating Damage – If realized, all older mobile homes will be destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction will be destroyed or severely damaged. Moderate to major damage of well-constructed houses will include up to one half of all gabled roofs. Also, a significant number of exterior walls will fail. Aluminum and light weight steel roofs will be torn off buildings at industrial parks. Partial roof and exterior wall failure are likely at low rise apartment buildings, especially those of poor to average construction. Most windows in tall buildings will be blown out, with other minor to moderate damage possible due to swaying. Airborne debris of light to moderate weight will cause additional major damage, as well as injuries and possible loss of life. Near total power loss is expected. Many power poles will be knocked down, and numerous transformers will pop. Outages will last for weeks in some areas. The availability of potable water will be diminished as filtration systems begin to fail. Thousands of trees will be severely damaged. Up to three quarters of all healthy small to medium sized trees will snap or uproot, especially on saturated ground. Severe damage is expected to citrus orchards; some orchards may face total destruction. Most newly planted ground crops will be wiped out. Livestock left to weather the storm will be injured, some critically. Some livestock deaths are likely.

Opal downed thousands upon thousands of trees across Alabama.

Katrina breeched the levees at New Orleans (as had been warned for decades) and flooded the below sea level city. Almost forgotten is the devastation in Mississippi, which is still being repaired 10 years later.

Also with Katrina, the storms surge travelled well inland up rivers and creeks causing wells to become unusable because they became salty. People had to distill the water until the aquafer cleansed itself.

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
(131 to 155 mph)
Galveston Hurricane of 1900
Fredrick 1979
Opal 1995
Charley 2004

&

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
(Above 155 mph)
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992

Catastrophic Damage: If realized, damage will be unprecedented. Much of the affected area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer in spots. At least one half of well-constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, and most of those homes will be destroyed. The majority of industrial buildings will become non-functional; partial to complete wall and roof damage is likely. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block or brick low rise apartments will have major damage, including some wall and roof failure. Tall buildings will sway dangerously and have most windows blown out; a few may collapse. Airborne debris will be widespread and include heavy items such as household appliances and even some light automobiles. Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved or tossed. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons and pets caught outdoors will be killed if struck by debris. Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be blown down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards. A majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted. Only the heartiest trees will remain standing, but will be defoliated. Most crops will be destroyed; exposed livestock will be killed.

During the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900, a 15 foot storm surge washed over the entire island. The surge knocked buildings off their foundations and the surf pounded them to pieces, killing 8000 people.

Category 4 Fredrick destroyed the bridge to Dauphin Island, making it only accessible by boat.

During the Category 5 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 people caught outside were literally sandblasted to death. Some were found with no clothing left on except their belts.

Though a Category 3 storm at landfall, this wording was used almost verbatim during Katrina.

URGENT—WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 PM CDT MONDAY AUG 29 2005

…EXTREME DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI…
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE CONTINUES ALONG ITS PATH…

KATRINA…NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 125 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS…WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND NEAR KATRINA’S PATH…EXPECT PARTIAL TO
COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT WILL
SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL
BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION…PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DE-FOLIATED.

THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

Let’s hope we don’t have to see another message like this for some time to come.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the combination of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is very low in bright twilight almost due west, approaching his highest elevation above the horizon, which he reaches on September 4. He will at that time be 27 degrees above the horizon.

Venus is getting higher and brighter every morning in the east before dawn. How long can you track her after sunrise? I’ve seen her at mid-day.

Mars is near Venus in the dawn, but, while easily visible, is 300 times fainter.

Incidentally, the old internet rumor is spreading again about “double moons” with Mars soon being as large as the full moon. It is a hoax, or at least I would hope it is, because if it were true, then we or Mars or both have broken out of solar orbit, which would not be a good thing.

Also floating around is the cheerful news that the Earth will be hit by a two and a half mile wide comet between September 15 – 28 and cause “climate chaos”. These are certainly trying times.

Jupiter is hidden deep in the sunrise.

Saturn shines in Libra in the southwest at dusk.

Uranus in Pisces has risen in the east by 10 PM.

Neptune in Aquarius has risen in the southeast by 10 PM.

New Moon occurs September 13 at 1:41 AM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

There will be a partial solar eclipse on September 13, but, it will be visible only in Southern Africa, Madagascar and Antarctica. Book your tickets now.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 23 at 3:21 AM CDT, when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 27 at 9:50 PM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year it is also “Harvest Moon”. Harvest moon get its name because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so occasionally it can occur with October “Hunters Moon”.

This year’s Harvest Moon is the second of 2015’s three Supermoons. The moon will be at its closest approach of the year and may appear slightly larger and brighter than normal.

The next Supermoon will occur at Hunter’s Moon on October 27.

There will be a total lunar eclipse fully visible from Birmingham on September 27. Timings +/-
2 minutes are as follows:

The eclipse begins at 7:11 PM CDT
Partial eclipse begins at 8:07 PM CDT
Total eclipse begins at 9:11 PM CDT
Maximum eclipse 9:47 PM CDT
Total eclipse ends 10:23 PM CDT
Partial eclipse ends 11:27 PM CDT
Eclipse ends 12:22 PM CDT

A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of North and South America, Europe, Africa, and western Asia.

If social media trumpets about “blood moons”, do remember that they usually do turn red during eclipses. It’s normal. If it should turn purple or square shaped, then you might start wondering.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

1887 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 27, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on September 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope all is well as we enter these late summer days. As you bake and broil in the sun, remember that fall is just a little over a month away, and eventually the heat and humidity will retreat back towards the tropical realms from whence it came.

Our next ALERT meeting will be on August 11. Dues are still due, so if you missed the July meeting, grab the piggy bank and come to the meeting.

I hope to see you there!

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Home Damage Control Kits

If one does much study of disaster preparedness, you will encounter many lists of suggested items for emergency kits. You will see BOB’s or “Bug Out Bags”, INCH Kits or “I’m Never Coming Home” kits, GHB’s or “Get Home Bags”, and SKMO Kits or “Spouse Kicked Me Out” kits. However, the one kit I never seem to see anything about is Home Damage Control Kits.

Disasters come in many shapes and sizes. From flooded basements due to a burst pipe to storms planting a tree in your roof or liking your roof so much that it just takes it with it.

Regardless of the causes one should have some means of making emergency repairs so your home can remain habitual or to prevent further damage.

So what should be included in a Damage Control Kit?

In addition to a sturdy ladder you should have:

1. An ABC fire extinguisher. These are good for small fires, defined as those not reaching the ceiling. Any, fires that are larger than you are, or one that threatens to cut off your escape route, presents a smoke inhalation danger or might lead to an explosion, is beyond your control – GET OUT and call 911!

An ABC extinguisher can combat: A – Solid combustibles, such as wood & paper, B – small amounts of liquids or gases (not tankers or barrels) & C – electrical fires.

Realize that fire extinguisher can only discharge for up to 10 seconds, that’s all. So, if a fire looks like 10 seconds probably is not going to be sufficient to extinguish the fire, DON’T TRY, get out and call 911.

Extinguishers are used using the “PASS” method:

PULL… Pull the pin. This will also break the tamper seal.
AIM… Aim low, pointing the extinguisher nozzle (or its horn or hose) at the base of the fire.
NOTE: Do not touch the plastic discharge horn on CO2 extinguishers, it gets very cold and may damage skin.
SQUEEZE… Squeeze the handle to release the extinguishing agent.
SWEEP… Sweep from side to side at the base of the fire until it appears to be out. Watch the area. If the fire re-ignites, aim again, squeeze and sweep again, assuming you haven’t exhausted the extinguisher.

If you have the slightest doubt about your ability to fight a fire, EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY and call 911.

What if 911 is unavailable? Don’t try to be a hero. You can always replace “things”. But you cannot replace your life.

2. You should have a set of tools. Once upon a time nearly every guy owned a tool set. You could repair your own cars and do simple or not so simple home repairs. Now that “help” is just a phone call away, the need for a tool set is not overly apparent, and many don’t go to the bother to have one.

A good tool set for Damage Control would include a small knife; please not some Rambo sized Bowie Knife, as they prove too unwieldy for small work.

“The Bowies and Hunting Knives usually kept on sale, are
thick, clumsy affairs, murderous looking, but of little use,
rather fitted to adorn the belt of “Billy The Kid” on a Dime
Store Novel, than the outfit of a Hunter. “
– George Washington “Nessmuk” Sears 1885

Admittedly they look macho, but it’s like trying to peel an apple with a Samurai sword.

Also include shears, heavy duty scissors, saws – a gas powered chainsaw, a large bow saw, and a small folding saw, a claw hammer, a hatchet, screw drivers – both slotted and Phillips head, nut drivers, crescent wrenches, a pipe wrench, including a non-conductive one for the gas main, vise grips, a cordless drill, pry bars, gloves, googles and a hard hat.

3. Screws and nails of various sizes, including roofing nails, for shoring up and patching. A hammer and screwdriver is of little use if you have no nails or screws.

4. Duct tape. There are multitudes of uses for this wonder of human technology. You can use it to repair rips, slips, clips and drips. The adhesive has antibiotic properties, making a decent bandage. You can even use a strip for a short term emergency candle. http://theweekendprepper.com/supplies/50-practical-uses-for-duct-tape/
This and the following suggestion is sometimes lovingly referred to as “the Redneck Tool Kit”.

5. Water Displacement, 40th formula also called WD40. I always was tempted to change my call sign to Whiskey Delta Four Oscar. There is the old saying “If it won’t open, use WD4O, if it won’t close use duct tape”. This gem has over 2000 uses http://wd40.com/files/wd40-2000.pdf and supposedly is edible, though I’ve never tried it. Though it has been said “Mark will eat anything”, I do have my limits

6. Cordage. 550 paracord is strong and handy for tying and securing items and people if needed (until the police arrive). Any strong cordage is better than none, however.

7. Zip ties. When one is afraid or shaken they, due to uncontrollable physiological reactions, may find their fine motor skills compromised, and loose the ability to perform complex manual tasks such as tying knots. With zip ties, you may be able to avoid that problem. Zip ties can allow you to tie small things without cutting your cordage, something you really don’t want to do.

8. Flashlights & spare batteries. Preferably a headlamp, as this will free your hands for other tasks.
Others I might recommend are Rayovac’s a small but bright handheld 14 LED flashlight with a glow in the dark handle that I like, as it tells you where it is in the dark. Harbor Freight has a 27 LED flashlight/work light with a hanger and magnet so you can position it where you want.

9. Tarps. I remember being in South Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Charlie. Though some weeks had passed since the landfall, house after house was still aglow with blue tarps covering holes and missing sections of roofs.

This brings up the fact that no matter where you are, who you are or what situation has occurred, it may, despite the best intentions or performance, take a considerable amount of time for “things” to get back to normal. Crying, cursing, pouting or protesting can’t change the fact that some things just take time, and that your neighborhood may not be the first one on the list, as a damaged hospital might be considered a higher priority. Cutting through the damage path to reach people takes time, and rebuilding an infrastructure that took years to build may take more than just a few hours, it may take days or even weeks if not months to accomplish.

That’s why preparation, both materially and mentally, is important.

10. Knowledge. Long before a disaster strikes you should study and learn emergency preparedness and survival, both urban and wilderness. Why wilderness survival, you may ask? Because in a major disaster the damage may be so severe that the landscape no longer resembles civilization, but a strange torn wilderness, where wilderness rules apply.

You should make emergency kits, both the type being discussed and one following the recommendations of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. The NSSL recommends you keep a disaster supply kit, including:

A 3-day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food that won’t spoil
One change of clothing and footwear per person
One blanket or sleeping bag per person
A first-aid kit, including prescription medicines
Emergency tools, including a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and a portable radio
A flashlight, and plenty of extra batteries
An extra set of car keys and a credit card or cash
Special items for infant, elderly, or disabled family members.

Which is basically the same list recommended by FEMA, the Canadian, Japanese and Israeli governments.

A FEMA Basic Preparedness Guide is available at:

Click to access basic_preparedness.pdf

To go a step further, I recommend IS22 “Are You Ready”, which is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness.

IS22 “Are You Ready” is available at http://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/areyouready_full.pdf

The old 1960’s (once required high school reading) Civil Defense book “SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival” recommended a 21-day emergency supply. This is probably a more realistic goal, in that in anything other than an isolated neighborhood emergency; it is very likely that it would take in excess of 72 hours for the infrastructure to return to normal & for you to be back “on the grid”.

Katrina, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 and the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak all are good examples.

SM 3-11 Personal And Family Survival is available at http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-Personal_and_Family_Survival.html

Not only need do you need to make emergency kits; you need to know how to use what is in them.
Just going out and buying a kit and never opening it or examining it is just buying a false sense of security.

Do you know how to cut off your water, to prevent flooding and protect your remaining water supply, such as that stored the hot water tank or piping from contamination? Can you cut off your power or gas supply to prevent a fire or explosion? Do you know how to make simple repairs? If not, learn now; don’t wait until an emergency occurs and you desperately need that knowledge, but it is too late.

Learn the threats and limitations unique to your location. Threats may include tornadoes, floods, and man-made threats such as industrial sites, chemical storage and transportation. Limitations include access to your neighborhood and transportation/evacuation routes. Are there any choke points where a single fallen tree could cut off rescue or escape?

Learn your assets, such as the location of the nearest medical facilities, including “doc in a box” clinics, pharmacies, hospitals, fire and police stations.

Also, know yourself and your limitations, both physically and financially & have realistic goals and expectations. For instance, don’t think you can hike five miles during an emergency to the hardware store, if you can barely make it from the sofa to the refrigerator as it is. Whatever you can realistically do to strengthen yourself physically, even a little bit, do so. Your life could depend on it.

Financially speaking, you do not have to go broke “prepping”. Do a little at a time. This helps cushion the wallet, and has the added benefit of not overwhelming yourself with a moving van of “emergency stuff”. You get to know your equipment and preparations better and in a more personal way when you prepare slowly.

It seems redundant to say that the time to prepare for emergencies is before they occur, not after, but, in so many cases people, rather than being proactive in preparing for the safety of their families in advance of a threat, are reactive waiting until after a disaster has struck, and then desperately try to obtain supplies when the stores, if they still exist, have been stripped of inventory, due to everyone else trying to cope with the disaster.

The middle of a disaster is the worst time to think about preparing. On the other hand, if you already have these preparations on hand, and the knowledge of how to use them, you are way ahead in the game and can help yourself and others also.

One word of caution I will add is that if you do choose to make emergency preparations, be very quiet about it. Don’t advertise you preparations by talking about them or posting details about them on social media or even discussing them on the air for that matter. You really don’t want everyone to know what you may or may not have.

It seems to be human nature that the same people who will laugh and ridicule you for preparing, calling you a “loony, tin hatted, prepper-survivalist type, no code weather wacko”, will also be the first ones knocking on your door expecting you to do your duty and provide for them.

Though you might want to help them and probably will, it is not your responsibility. You don’t want the neighborhood to descend on you and eat up a month’s worth of supplies in a day and leave you with nothing.

Just as it isn’t the responsibility of FEMA, the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Baptist Disaster Relief, or
any other organization or person to make personal preparations for you or your family, it’s not your responsibility to prepare for others who are not willing to lift a finger in their own behalf.

Use wisdom. Help when you can, guide and advise if they will listen and are willing, but, ultimately you and your family must come first.

It’s not selfishness, its common sense.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August. 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is hidden in the sunset.

Venus is dipping lower and lower towards the western horizon at sunset, look for her 20 to 30
minutes after sunset.

Mars is deep in the glow of dawn.

Jupiter is trailing Venus in the dusk sky, still close to each other, separated by 6 angular degrees, as they slowly sink into the western sky.

Saturn, shines in Scorpius in the south-southwest at sunset.

Uranus in Pisces is in the southern sky before the beginning of dawn.

Neptune in Aquarius is also in the southern sky before the first light of dawn.

Poor old demoted Pluto was successfully visited by the New Horizons spacecraft on July 14.

Among the interesting findings, which are and will be trickling in for the next 16 months, at 1 KBPS,
is the lack of cratering on Pluto and his primary moon Charon. Scientists expected a heavily cratered surface, similar to Jupiter’s moon Callisto or the southern region of our moon, instead, we see that while there are some craters, there are not very many, which means both objects are geologically active and resurfacing themselves.

The only other objects that does that is the Earth, due to geologic and weathering processes, Jupiter’s moon Europa, which because of the tidal action of Jupiter, is believed to possess an ice covered ocean and is as smooth as an bowling ball and Jupiter’s moon Io, which is so volcanically active that it’s sulfur volcanos are constantly resurfacing the landscape.

To do that both objects would have to have hot cores, and at that distance neither one should, and should have very heavily cratered surfaces, but doesn’t. So that has them wondering.

Pluto and Charon are gravitationally locked, that is that they always present the same faces to each other, similarly to how our moon only shows one face to the Earth.

Charon doesn’t rotate around Pluto. Since Charon is 1/4 the size of Pluto, it actually orbits the barycenter or a common center of gravity located between it and Pluto, like figure skaters circling holding hands.

The pair could almost be considered a double planet, if he hadn’t been demoted from planet status, due to his supposed dwarfish ways.

The poor old boy can’t win for losing.

If you want to see meteors, August is your month, as the Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. With only a thin crescent moon, there will be little interference, and if you can get away from city lights you should have a good show.

The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs August 14 at 9:53 PM CDT.

August’s full moon is “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans. This will occur August 29 at 1:35 PM CDT.

It is the first of three “Supermoons” occurring in 2015. The moon will be at its closest approach and may appear slightly larger and brighter than normal.

Don’t be surprised if the media, if both broadcast and especially social media herald the event as having some special, if not prophetic significance.

The truth is that they are not uncommon, and that it will be only slightly larger and brighter than normal, and most people are not actually able to tell the difference between it and an ordinary full moon.

Should you miss this Supermoon, you will also have opportunities at the Supermoons occurring at Harvest Moon on September 28 and at Hunter’s Moon on October 27.

1879 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 23, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

Among those 1879 planets is planet Kepler 452-B, orbiting star Kepler 452, 1400 light years away in the constellation Cygnus.

This planet orbits a class G2V star very similar to, though older than the Sun. Its 385 day orbit lies within the “circumstellar habitable zone” or as some call the “Goldilocks zone” of the star. That is, it’s not too hot or too cold for planets large enough to have sufficient atmospheric pressure to have liquid water on the surface.

This planet, if the rough estimates are correct, is 60% larger than Earth and has twice the gravity of Earth.

Assuming it is an Earth-like planet, having a rocky core, instead of a small gas planet; it is believed it has many active volcanoes due to its higher mass and density. The clouds on the planet would be thick and misty, covering much of the surface as viewed from space. It’s “Sun”, Kepler-452 would look almost identical to our Sun as viewed from the surface of Kepler-452.

It is not clear if Kepler-452b offers habitable environments. Its parent star, like the Sun, has nearly the same temperature and mass, but is 20% more luminous. However, the star is six billion years old, making it 1.5 billion years older than the Sun. At this point in its star’s life, Kepler-452b is receiving 10% more energy from its parent star than Earth is currently receiving from the Sun. If Kepler-452b is a rocky planet, it may be in a runaway greenhouse effect, similar to that seen on Venus.

If creatures on Kepler-452b were able to view life on Earth, they would see Earth as it was in the seventh century AD. And, if a ship from Earth were to travel there at the speed of the New Horizons spacecraft, it would take 26 million years to reach that world.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on August 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone, I hope you are staying cool in this summer heat. Our next meeting will occur July 14, as our new officers begin their new terms. Dues are now due, so break open the piggy bank, and renew your ALERT membership at our next meeting. See you there! ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… As we are entering the hottest weeks of the year, it’s a good time to talk about… HEAT & Its Dangers Heat and heat related illnesses are not something to be shrugged off. About 237 Americans die each year due to heat related illnesses. In arid regions such as the desert southwest, the heat lacks humidity, and though it will be blazing hot, the evaporation helps the body combat the heat, as evaporating sweat helps cool to body down. A “dry heat” is not as uncomfortable as the “humid heat” which we endure. In our semitropical climate, humidity from the Gulf works against our bodies cooling mechanisms – internal blood circulation adjustments, sweating and evaporation, not allowing the body to combat the heat, and we are in placed in a seriously dangerous situation. Though you are rapidly losing your body’s water reserves, up to 1.5 liters or 1.6 quarts per hour through sweating, the sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to dissipate the heat in the high humidity. We are familiar with the term “heat index”. This index was developed to help identify the danger zone, and express how the combined temperature and humidity “feels” or affects the human body. The Shaded Heat Index can be determined using this chart. I picked this version because it uses the Dewpoint. Some charts use Relative Humidity, which is fine, except the humidity is constantly varying with temperature fluctuations, while the Dewpoint usually remains fairly steady. Heat Index Chart (Temperature & Dewpoint) Dewpoint (° F) Temperature (° F) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 65 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 110 112 66 94 95 97 98 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 112 67 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 105 106 107 108 110 111 112 113 68 95 97 98 99 100 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 112 113 114 69 96 97 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 113 114 115 70 97 98 99 101 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 114 115 116 71 98 99 100 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 111 112 113 115 116 117 72 98 100 101 103 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 116 117 118 73 99 101 102 103 105 106 108 109 110 112 113 114 116 117 118 119 74 100 102 103 104 106 107 109 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 75 101 103 104 106 107 108 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 76 102 104 105 107 108 110 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 123 77 103 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 78 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 126 79 106 107 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 127 128 80 107 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 128 130 81 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 129 130 132 82 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 122 123 125 126 128 129 131 132 133 Note: Exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15° F HEAT INDEX EFFECTS 80 to 90 degrees – Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 90 to 105 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 105 to 130 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are likely, and heatstroke is possible, with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 130 degrees and higher – Heatstroke or sunstroke are highly likely with continued exposure. I hope you noticed the line stating that if you are in full sunlight the heat index can be up to 15 degrees higher than the indicated values. Be exceedingly careful with your exposure to the heat and sunlight. To help combat the heat danger, stay indoors as much as possible, hugging the air conditioner. Avoid strenuous activity. Wear loose, lightweight, light colored clothing made from cotton or linen, as they absorb your sweat and help with cooling. Your clothing is a vital defense. That’s why the age old habit of guys trying to act macho by stripping off as much as is legally possible, to show off their abs, pecs and biceps, isn’t the most intelligent move that one can make. You want to dress more like Sheik Omar, and less like a Krispy Critter. Wear a good sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher. Drink lots & lots of water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, as they dehydrate the body. Sports drinks are ok for a once one-jug drink to help replenish your electrolytes, but the body absorbs water much more quickly. Sports drinks are so loaded with minerals that the body misidentifies the juice as food and waits for it to be digested before sending it on to the lower innards to be absorbed into the body. Your dehydration worsens though your stomach is full of liquid. So make water your primary drink. Drink. Drink even if you aren’t thirsty. If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated. A rough guide to the minimum water intake needed to maintain body fluid while at rest in the shade is as follows: At 68 degrees drink 1.2 liters or 1.3 quarts At 77 degrees drink 1.4 liters or 1.5 quarts At 86 degrees drink 2.5 liters or 2.6 quarts At 95 degrees drink 5.1 liters or 5.4 quarts Note that just walking may double these requirements. It is better to drink small amounts of water, such as 250 – 350 liters or ¼ to 1/3 quarts every 20 minutes, rather than try to gulp large amounts of water every hour. To get down and earthy with the subject, if your urine is clear and there is a lot of it, you are properly hydrated, if this is not the case, if the urine dark or there is little or none being produced, you are in serious danger. Dehydration has been found to compromise mental function by dropping our brainpower by 25%. This keeps you from thinking straight & doing the smart things you need to do to help keep you above the daisies. Now let’s talk “pets” for a moment. One thing you should realize is that “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk. I once conducted an experiment by placing thermometers at different places on the ground to see what the critters & their footpads were having to endure. Some places, particularly the sidewalks and pavement the temperature easily reached 150 degrees. So, if you think, as was advocated on a local news program, that you are doing Old Shep a favor by taking him for a walk during the heat to keep him from being bored and flabby, I would suggest that you go barefoot with him. He can’t tell you the misery he is suffering, but I bet by your hopping, jumping and cussing that you will be able to decipher the message he has been sending more clearly – “Bubba, I told you this was a bad idea`.” You are not doing him a favor by forcing him to walk barefoot/bear paw on 140 degree pavement. Remember that dogs cannot tolerate too much heat. Their fur, which covers their entire bodies, prevents them from sweating. The only external surface not covered with fur is their paw pads — which explains the damp paw prints you might find on the sidewalk on hot summer days. They can have a heatstroke just as easily if not more so than you can. You don’t want to shave outdoor pets, by the way. If you remove their fur, you are removing the only protection they from getting a serious sunburn. Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together. Cats usually have enough sense to find a shady cool spot. Make sure their water bowl is full. Or better yet, keep them inside. If you can, make them a permanent indoor feature, as they live much longer indoors. That way dogs can’t get them and cars can’t squish them. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Mark’s Almanac Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar. July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer. The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11. The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery. As you endure this heat, as mentioned in the preceding article, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun. The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley. This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS used for years. In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere. Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes. Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July. Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Looking towards the sky, Mercury is low in the glow of sunrise. Venus & Jupiter, the two bright “stars” you are seeing at sunset will be only 1/3 degrees apart on June 30 during and after evening twilight, in the west-northwest in Gemini. They will be only slightly more separated July 1. The Moon, Jupiter & Venus on June 20, 2015, by Mark Wells Mars is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise. Saturn, just above the head of Scorpius is highest in the South at sunset. To the lower left of Saturn twinkles the fiery orange star Antares. Uranus in Pisces is in the East before dawn begins to brighten. Neptune Aquarius is low in the Southeast before the first light of dawn. Overhead you will see the star Vega, one of the brightest stars in the heavens, which is located in the small constellation Lyra. Nearby is cross shaped Cygnus the swan. Binoculars reveal a sea of stars making up the Cygnus-Carina arm of the Milky Way Galaxy. Here the Kepler Space Telescope has found over 1000 planets, or more correctly “exoplanets” as they lie far beyond our solar system. July’s first Full Moon occurs July 1 at 9:19 PM CDT, and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”. On July NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft will arrive at Pluto after a nine and a half year journey. The probe, launched January 19, 2006 will be the first spacecraft to visit Pluto, and will give us our first close-up views of the dwarf planet and its moons. After passing Pluto, the probe will continue to the Kuiper Belt, a region of the Solar System extending from the orbit of Neptune to 50 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The doughnut shaped Kuiper Belt is similar to the asteroid belt, but 20 times as wide and 200 times as massive. It, like the asteroid belt consists of small bodies that are remnants of the Solar System’s formation, largely frozen material such as ammonia, methane and water. It is also the realm of three officially recognized dwarf planets – Pluto, Haumea & Makemake & probably several more yet to be detected. The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs July 15 at 8:24 PM CDT. The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th. This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour. Unfortunately a nearly Full Moon will wash out all but the brightest meteors. Still, it’s worth a peek. Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August. July will have a second Full Moon which will occur July 31 at 5:43 AM CDT. This, being a second Full Moon within the same month is often called, by modern definition, a “Blue Moon”. The older definition is “the third of four Full Moons in a single season. Sky and Telescope Magazine calls the modern definition “trendy” but, a “mistake”. This is interesting, since it was the March 1946 issue of Sky and Telescope which misinterpreted the definition and gave the current definition as “a second Full Moon in a single calendar month”, with no connection to the season. The next “old definition” Blue Moon will be May 21, 2016. 1854 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 25, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/ ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… This month’s meeting will be on July 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport. If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database