Reading Tea Leaves With Mark
Or
Point Weather Forecasting For The Rank Amateur

“What’s it going to do this weekend?”

This is a question I’ve been asked countless times through the years after it was “discovered” that “that little kid Mark, ask him, he seems to know what the weather’s going to do.”

This “Mystic Ability” came about quite by accident. Long before my interest in ham radio or meteorology there was and still is a deep interest in astronomy. Starting at age 5, or around 1963, I would look through my sister Joyce’s old thick high school science book, which was published in the late 1940’s and see the pictures of star clouds and planets, later I would read it’s tales of “island universes”, the true nature of swirling galaxies having just been realized when the book was printed and of the probability of life on Mars. It fired my young imagination.

Around 1970 I saved what was to me a fortune and bought a reflector telescope for $30 and began exploring the night sky.

At school on Wednesday I would figure out what I would be looking at Saturday. Wednesday would be clear. By Thursday there were giant feathers in the sky. On Friday a halo would be circling the Sun and on Saturday buckets of rain would be falling.

It only took a few episodes of this for me to figure out the pattern.

So it was that Thursday would come, I would look up at the sky, cancel my plans to count craters on the moon, and would remark to a friend planning to “go fishin” Saturday “you might better take an umbrella.” To which he would reply “yeah sure, you don’t know nuthin.”

Monday would come and he would come, still disappointed from his fishing trek being rained out and ask “How did you know?”

“It’s an ancient secret, passed down to only a few” I would say, and maybe mumble something about Forbidden Knowledge Of The Egyptians, and watch his blank expression.

That started it. I get asked “what’s it going to do” daily, from near and far. Just five minutes ago someone asked “what will it do today?” and that’s just twice so far for today.

I don’t mind it at all. It’s fun.

“Why don’t you do this on TV?” some have asked.

Besides having a face that would frighten little children if they saw me on TV, let’s just say that the twists and turns of life and a general reeking of my mathematical ability, both higher and lower, have combined to make that possibility somewhat dubious.

If by chance I were to get struck by lightning and those forces that hold my long dormant mathematical brain cells hostage where to release them and they suddenly snapped into conduction where one plus one no longer equals three, I might consider doing what my father did when he went back to college at near age 60, and ended up teaching at the University Of Alabama.

Roll Tide, by the way.

Then the question of the actual marketability of what would eventually be a 65 year old rookie meteorologist might factor in, as well as the “ABBA Theory”.

An obscure early ABBA song tells of a lady working a mundane job “just a face among a million faces, just another lady with no name.” But she had a secret, as she was part of an amateur ballet company and every Friday night she was transformed into the star of the stage. Monday? Back to being buried in paperwork and being a random face lost in the crowd.

Would she prefer that every day be like Friday? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. “For she knows the fun would go away, if she played every day.”

Being an armchair meteorologist has the advantage of non-accountability. If I miss a forecast, big deal, only the cat and I know. And, he doesn’t say too much.

But our friends at the NWS are held to strict accountability, and broadcast meteorologists catch grief every time General Hospital is interrupted for a storm that effects “the other guy”, not them and woe to all of them if it “unexpectedly” rains on little Demented, I mean little Darling Daphne’s fifth birthday party and picnic.

But, just for fun, not pretending to be “anybody” or claiming any special talent, let’s reveal the Shrouded Sacred Secrets of “Mark’s Roll Your Own Weather Forecasting.”

Before I begin I will say when I look for the ACTUAL forecast I rely on our friends on Weathervane Road, the NWS. They have the experience, talent, dedication, education and resources that let me know that barring the unforeseen quirks of nature, I can rely on their opinions and judgements.

The following suggestions are based on the assumption that you have little or no equipment available. This becomes especially valuable during outdoor adventures, as it lessens your chances of being caught off guard, whether at the beach, the park or in the mountains.

Before beginning ANY adventure check the NWS forecast first. Many, many troubles and tragedies could have been avoided by that one simple little action.

If you are interested in trying “Roll Your Own Forecasting” here are a few suggestions I recommend.

1. Do a little research. Start with a simple, manageable book describing the whys and ways of weather phenomena and how the atmosphere works. It doesn’t have to be a 1000 page tome loaded with mathematical formulae looking like it was written in Chinese.

The book I learned from, which was simple, yet detailed was Weather: A Fully Illustrated, Authoritative and Easy-to-Use Guide (A Golden Guide from St. Martin’s Press) by Paul E. Lehr & R. Will Burnette.

At first it looks like a “child’s book”, but, it has plenty of useful information that is well explained, and is loaded with illustrations that could be considered works of art.

2. Learn your microclimate. Every area has its own little quirks and interactions which will combine to cause variations in actual conditions versus the expected textbook conditions. Hills will alter the wind flow, streams and bogs will alter the humidity levels for example.

Once there was an emergency exercise where K4NWS provided weather updates for a simulated chemical emergency. The Incident Commander would call for weather conditions and I would give him the latest readings from the NWS instruments. At one point he became frustrated and yelled “that’s not what we are seeing down here.” I explained that “conditions at the NWS forecast office may or may not mirror the conditions you see at your location. This is what the conditions are at the forecast office, conditions seen at other locations can and will vary due to variations in terrain.”

He didn’t like that answer of course, but, it was the truth and as they say “I don’t write em, I just read em.”

I’ve experimented by placing instruments in the center and corners of large fields, and all the readings were in some disagreement. Shadows, shading, wind deflection and foliage all combined to give a variation in readings.

What local factors could influence your forecast?

3. Pay attention, notice and learn what normally goes on around you, both weatherwise and otherwise.

We live in a “tuned out” society, with many distractions both good and bad.

Some go about almost in a zombielike state absorbed in their own little virtual world of texting and chatting. This is neither healthy nor safe, as you can become so unaware of what’s going on around you that you become the perfect prey for those who would harm you, either due to greed, hatred, prejudice or just mean low down creepy people “being themselves” by acting mean creepy and low down.

Also, you don’t want to end up like poor Granny Johnson. The booze finally got her. True, she never drank a drop, but, she was blasting the Hallelujah Tabernacle Quartet so loud in her earbuds that she never heard the air horn of the Budweiser truck that sent her to Glory – in a somewhat flattened state.

So tune back in!

I know it may not be as easy as it sounds, because it is such a strong habit, and because it’s so enjoyable. But, tuning back in is even more enjoyable.

As you reconnect with the world around you, you will begin to notice cool little things. Flowers you never saw before, yet they were always there. What the bugs and birds are doing. For instance you notice anthills growing taller as the ants shore them up, they somehow knowing that it is going to rain. You see the birds reappearing in the rain letting you know a storm is almost over. You hear the changing and varying call of the birds, and you learn to admire the ever changing tapestry of the sky and learn the secrets it holds.

The longer you reconnect you begin to sense things about the moods of nature and the creatures in it, almost a sixth sense, as you tap into the primordial instincts that were always there, but, were buried deep within by the continual drone and distractions of modern society.

You will find that world is an exceedingly interesting place.

When gathering information for your forecast, here are some questions to ask yourself,

1. What are the winds doing?

Some broad, general rules are:

North wind cold, South wind hot, East wind foul & West wind fair

But, while these indicators are right more often than they are wrong, the most important forecasting factor is the change in the wind direction, for changes in wind direction indicates a change in the pressure environment, the interaction between high pressure and low pressure systems, which actually end up defining the “weather” that we see. This is especially true when accompanied by a change in the barometric pressure.

The following rules come from various sources, where I got them are lost in the mists and the cobwebs of my memory.

“If the wind is shifting counterclockwise from the Southwest through South to the East and the barometer is falling, a storm system is West to Northwest of your location and will pass near or North of you within 12 to 24 hours. If accompanied by East or Northeast moving clouds, a cold front is approaching. After the front passes expect a wind shift to the Northwest.”

“If the wind is from the East to Northeast and the barometer is falling, a storm is South to Southwest of your location and will pass near or South of your location in 12 to 24 hours. Expect a wind shift to the Northwest via North as the storm passes.”

Once a front has passed the duration of fair weather will be depend roughly on the duration of the pressure rise. If the pressure rise lasts only for a day, the fair weather will not last much longer than a day.

Calm winds, or North winds and high pressure usually indicate good weather.

2. What is the barometer REALLY doing?

Occasionally I will hear broadcast media say “the pressure is 30.00 inches and steady” and I will think “oh, no it is NOT steady, it’s falling. That is the same reading you had at 6PM.”

A secret that one has to consider when reading a barometer is the “diurnal effect” of the barometric pressure. Normally the barometric pressure will rise and fall a little during the day without it having any significance or indicating any outside influence.

The degree of this rise or fall will vary with the latitude, but, generally it will be roughly plus or minus .05 to .06 inches in Alabama.

For example, if the pressure is 30.00 inches at noon, the pressure will normally fall to around 29.95 inches at 6PM, rebound to 30.00 inches at Midnight, fall again to 29.95 inches at 6AM, and so forth.

This is not a true rise and fall, but, a normal variation. So technically in this case for our forecasting purposes, the pressure could be considered “steady”.

An easy way to remember this is that the pressure at noon should be the same at midnight, and the pressure at 6AM should read the same at 6PM. If it is, no change is imminent. If it does move out of this range, then something could be “in the wind”.

Also, the actual level of the pressure, whether high or low does not necessarily indicate what weather could be occurring. I’ve seen it rain with a “high pressure” of 30.45 inches, and have seen it be clear as glass with a “low pressure” of 29.65 inches.

Again, it’s the CHANGE that we are interested in.

What if you don’t have a barometer?

You are in luck in that you can access an entire network of FREE weather stations called the Automated Weather and Surface Observation System.

The Automated Surface Observing System or ASOS stations are operated cooperatively by the NWS, FAA & DOD. This is a primary climatological observing network. Deployment of the system began in 1991 and was completed in 2004.

These stations use a format such as this: “Birmingham Airport Automated Weather Observation. One six five three Zulu. Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20. Visibility 7. Light rain, mist. Sky condition 700 scattered, 1700 broken, 3500 overcast. Temperature 79, Celsius, Dew Point 69 Celsius, Altimeter 29.64. Remarks distant lightning South West through west. Wind variable between 150 and 230.”

Deciphering this, “one six five three Zulu” is the time 16:53 UTC.

“Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20” is the wind direction, in this case south. Remember the cardinal compass points: North is at 0 degrees (and 360 degrees), East is 90 degrees, South is 180 degrees, and West is 270 degrees. Then the wind speed is given.

“Visibility 7” is the horizontal surface visibility.

“Light rain, mist” is self-explanatory.

“Sky condition” is the actual measured altitude of the various cloud layers in feet, in this case 700 feet scattered, 1700 feet broken, 3500 feet overcast.

Temperature & dew point are given in Celsius.

“Altimeter 29.64” is the barometric pressure in this case 29.64 inches.

“Remarks” are any other pertinent weather comments, in this case distant lightning is being observed South West through West and the wind direction is wind variable between 150 and 230 degrees.

These reports are very useful in getting an idea of the conditions both now and just upstream of your location.

The following link gives you all of the ASOS Frequencies and Telephone by city or airport for Alabama.

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/?state=AL

Now there are a few drawbacks to these stations:

The weather given is the weather where the station is located, and may not necessarily agree with the weather where you are located. As mentioned earlier, wind currents and eddies, trees, unknown or unseen elements all of which make up the microclimate of the location may throw curve balls into the readings.

Cloud layer altitudes are interesting to know. But, they are measured using a laser beam ceilometer that shoots a laser beam straight up & measures return “echo”. This method is good and accurate, but has tunnel vision. I have seen times it would say “clear” and it was really ringing a doughnut hole in an otherwise overcast sky. This device has a maximum range of 12000 feet. Low Altocumuli can be detected; higher altocumulus and cirrus will be missed.

3. What are the clouds doing?

Perhaps the biggest clues to the upcoming weather are the clouds themselves. Each tells a different story.

(At this point I would sorely love to include pictures to illustrate the following. But I am concerned about bandwidth, copy write and newsletter length issues. Just copy the cloud name in your search engine and go to “images” to learn their appearance.)

CLEAR skies indicate no major change is imminent (though nature sometimes will throw a surprise).

CUMULUS – Like shreds of cotton, clouds that are being shredded and torn against a blue sky usually mean fair weather for several hours.

CUMULUS – Chubby, looking like a mound of mashed potatoes, forming sheets or a “field of cumulus” usually indicate fair weather, with the exception of those forming at or before noon, as they indicate instability and possible showers later in the day. The flatter they are, they less likely anything will develop. Towards sunset they can flatten out into STRATOCUMULUS detailed below.

CUMULUS – Looking like cauliflowers or CUMULUS CONGESTUS can bring showers or continue developing into a thunderstorm or CUMULONIMBUS

CUMULUS – Shooting straight up or towering or “TOWERING CUMULUS” indicates thunderstorms are likely.

CUMULONIMBUS – Mountains of clouds, with anvil shaped tops capped by false cirrus – thunderstorms are already here.

STRATUS – Low dense clouds, actually a type of fog. Expect drizzle. Many times they will burn off as the Sun rises during the morning, or ruin a “fair weather” night forecast by forming as a fog bank under a clear sky and hovering near the ground totally obscuring the sky.

NIMBOSTRATUS – A low, rainy layer, dark gray, frequently observed under ALTOSTRATUS. These indicate longer periods of rain, perhaps for hours, but not as long if accompanied by West or Northwest winds. Sometimes they are accompanied by lower detached scud clouds scooting underneath or tendrils and wisps of clouds seen rising off mountain ridges.

STRATOCUMULUS – Large globular masses or rolls arranged in waves or lines. They may lower and fuse together and convert into STRATUS or NIMBOSTRATUS. These indicate “unsettled weather”, which is defined for our purposes as “variable clouds, with slight chances of precipitation, if the precipitation is substantial it will fall for a small part of the period only”.

ALTOCUMULUS – Globular masses, small and flattened usually in lines or waves. The moon or sun often shines readily through them, accompanied by a colorful corona or iridescence. They are often followed by unsettled weather or showery skies.

ALTOSTRATUS – A gloomy gray uniform sheet of clouds, with the sun occasionally peaking though as if looking through frosted glass. Expect rain within 12 to 24 hours if Northeast to Southeast winds are present.

CIRROCUMULUS – Delicate looking small globular masses, sometimes resembling lace, a net or a honeycomb, sometimes looking similar to small altocumulus, but always white with no shadowing. Cirrocumulus in thin patches in association with other high, thin clouds usually means fair weather, while cirrocumulus as part of a thickening layer of clouds is more likely to mean that storms are on the way. I consider these the most beautiful of clouds.

CIRROSTRATUS – A white veil, often merging into ALTOSTRATUS. Increasing means rain is likely, particularly if there is a halo encircling the sun or moon. Expect chances of rain within 12 to 24 hours. Sometimes these clouds are so thin that the sun or moon shines readily through the milky sky.

CIRRUS – Thin, white silky and fibrous. If a few feathery cirrus are floating by it means fair weather today. They occasionally produce sundogs, which may indicate rain within 24 to 48 hours, if the coverage increases. Their distance is deceptive, as they are so high up that they may look as if they are nearby, but, may actually be 50 to 150 miles away, the distance increasing the closer they are to the horizon.

CONTRAILS – The long thin clouds that are formed in the wake of aircraft. Long trails will only form if there is already some moisture in the air; in very dry air they dissolve almost instantly.
If they persist and grow longer, the air is becoming humid. If they persist for hours they can cover the sky and merge into a sort of manmade form of CIRROSTRATUS, indicating a worsening of the weather is to come.

4. What is your radio doing?

By taking an AM radio, tuning it to 530 and listening to the sferics or static crashes you can determine the presence of thunderstorms, the type of thunderstorm (cellular or linear) and with practice using the same receiver exclusively, as differing receivers have differing reception traits, estimate the approximate range or distance of the storm from you.

Cellular storms will have sporadic bursts, while linear storms have a more continuous pattern.

With scattered cellular storms you may hear many bursts, but the volume and sharpness will decrease with increasing distance. A burst resembling the sound of plastic wrap is distant, while a sharp, loud crash means the storm is near.

If one listens to the crashes and plots the storms on radar, they will develop “an ear” as to judging the distance.

This also works on 160 and 80 Meters during the day. It is useless at night however, as the skip zone is too long and you may be hearing storms in Texas.

One oddity I’ve noticed is that static crashes from approaching storms seem to be louder than storms moving away, but, at the same distance. Why, I’m not certain. My best guess is that the rainfall is attenuating the “signal” from the static crash.

Also, a ham who worked the McDonald’s Chapel tornado in 1956 tells me that for days after the tornado there was, as it were, a continuous static field in the atmosphere that made 2 meters almost unusable for hams working the disaster. What they encountered and why, I have never found out nor have I seen any similar reference with other tornadoes.

5. What is your gut telling you?

Sometimes you look at all the factors and still you just have a hunch or feeling that “this and such” is or isn’t going to happen.

Don’t ignore those feelings. They may be valid, based on something you heard or read, now largely forgotten, but still enough remaining in your memory to make you say “wait a minute”.

So, you have gathered all your information. What do you do now?

You write it all down, add it up and since indicators are sometimes contradictory, you usually go with the majority of the opinions. With time you will learn which factors are more accurate for your location and give heavier reliance on them.

The question then comes, how do you judge if you’ve missed the forecast or hit it?

Sometimes it’s easy. You predicted fair weather and it’s sunny. Atta boy!

But, what if your forecast is “increasing clouds, rain in 12 hours”; it becomes black as night with clouds, but, not a drop of rain falls? You got it and but you then again you didn’t get it. 50 – 50.

That’s why I learned to “blur” the forecast a little by saying “increasing clouds, rain POSSIBLE in 12 hours.” If the sky “beclouds” and it is gloomy for the majority of the forecast period, I’ve hit the mark whether it rains or not, as the forecast is mushy enough to not lock me into an “it must rain” scenario.

The question also arises of how long do the conditions have to exist to validate your forecast?

For instance your forecast was “increasing clouds”, which it did from 12 to 4, then suddenly the clouds broke and it was sunny for an hour and then it clouded over again from 5 till six.

The rule I used was “if the forecast proved valid for the majority of the forecast period, two thirds being the cutoff point, it counts.” Unless of course the “missed part” is so important that you can’t discount it. “It was fair weather except for the tornado and flash flood”, for instance.

What is the “forecast period” for my prodigious prognostications? That depends on how many forecasts I make in a day. If I make a forecast every six hours, which increases the accuracy, then my forecast period is 6 hours. If I made a forecast at Midnight & Noon, it is 12 hours, and so on.

There are no “official” rules, you have to make them up as you go and stick to them.

One thing I won’t do, that the pro’s do, is what I heard at an aviation weather seminar, when they spoke of “adjusting the forecast as it starts to ‘slip out of category’”. In other words, they find the forecast is proving wrong, so they quickly change it.

That’s ok for them, and they have to for safety reasons, but, it would be cheating for me.

Also, if you find that in spite of all the indications the forecast is consistently turning out wrong, until the indications start changing, just go with the flow. For instance, everything says “fair” but its rained 8 days straight, and nothing seems to be changing, I’m forecasting rain, regardless of the readings.

I’m not a dummy, you know.

Weather equipment I would recommend obtaining is a wind vane, barometer and thermometer. Or go all out and get a professional grade setup, such as those made by Davis or Lacrosse.

One other item I would get is a booklet that is no longer in print, but, available on Amazon and Ebay called The Sager Weathercaster. This booklet created during World War II by Raymond Sager is basically a weather computer, which you input information about the wind direction, barometer tendency and sky condition on a set of circular disks or dials. The dials then give you a 4 character alphanumeric code that you then look up, which in turn will give you a forecast of conditions and wind directions, which many more times than not will prove accurate.

An online version is available at http://www.weather-above.com/Sager%20Algorithm.html

A similar device is the Zambretti Forecaster developed in Britain by Negretti & Zambra during World War I. It also has a dial arrangement, and is interesting to try, if not as accurate as the Sager Weathercaster. This inaccuracy is due perhaps because of the latitude difference, or because sky conditions don’t factor in, or perhaps simply because the British forecast terminology is vague to me and doesn’t seem to match the US terminology that I’m used to and I can’t seem to reconcile the styles.

For instance I see a forecast of “fine weather”. What defines “fine”? Is it clear, partly cloudy, cloudy with sunshine peeking through or does it mean simply “it ain’t gonna rain?”

An online version is available at http://www.casacota.cat/2×2/predictor.pl

Over the years I’ve discovered that my forecasts are more accurate during the Spring and Fall. During the winter the storm systems move faster, causing the sequence of events to occur faster than “the books” say. In the summer storm systems will approach, giving the usual sequence of events, but then the systems are stalled or redirected by the Bermuda high and they never arrive.

This aggravates me to no end.

Also, it would seem I’m blind to storms approaching from the north. Probably due to terrain features interfering with the local wind field.

“Roll Your Own Forecasts”, which are theoretically valid for a 30 mile radius, are not only practical, but fun!

Why not give it a try?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851 to 2017 there have been 389 Tropical Storms and 245 Hurricanes, 80 of which made landfall in the United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille and Katrina in 1969 and 2005, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida in 1992.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.3 degrees at the beginning of the month to 64.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 43 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:33 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, Mercury is lost in the afterglow of sunset. On August 8th he will be at “Inferior Conjunction” or lie almost directly between the Earth and the Sun, and as the month progresses will reappear above the Eastern Horizon before dawn.

On August 29 He will reach his highest point above the Eastern horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation” when he will be 18.3 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since he will be at his highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Due to quirks in the Earth’s orbital interaction with the orbits of the other planets and the varying angles of observation through the year, sometimes the other planets appear to travel backward through the night sky with respect to the stars of the zodiac. This is an optical illusion called “apparent retrograde motion”. From July 26 to August 19, if one were to plot Mercury’s position in reference to the background star pattern, he would appear to be moving backwards against those background stars. Though this is more noticeable with the outer planets, it is barely noticeable in Mercury’s case. This feat will be repeated from November 17 to December 6.

Venus shines brightly in the west during twilight –4.2, in eastern Leo. She is getting a little lower every week in the Northern Hemisphere as her orbit tilts in favor of viewers in the Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, and now sets around the end of twilight. In a telescope Venus is a gibbous disk 61% sunlit.

On August 17 she will reach his highest point above the Western horizon or “Greatest Eastern Elongation”, when she will be 45.9 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Venus since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the bright planet in the western sky after sunset.

Mars made his closest approach to Earth on the night of July 26th. At magnitude -2.8 the blazing reddish planet is very prominent; in fact he is currently the brightest object in the late night sky, even brighter than Jupiter as he drifts through Capricorn.

You will see Mars appearing low in the southeast near the end of twilight. After dark he rises higher and shifts southward, in a weird orbital anomaly like no celestial object you normally see. Mars is highest in the south, giving the best telescopic view, around 1 a.m. daylight-saving time.

The dust storm that still blankets the Martian globe has started to thin a little, allowing faint, low-contrast views of some dark surface features.

When discussing Mercury I mentioned his “apparent retrograde motion” or backwards motion across the sky. Mars is doing this celestial skating trick also. Since Mars close approach with the Earth on July 26, Mars has also been moving retrograde and is passing the stars he passed by over two months ago, except in reverse order, and will reenter Sagittarius.

On August 28th Mars reaches its Western Stationary Point, or the point where he appears to not be moving at all, and then will begin a normal direct or prograde Eastward motion once more and the planet will begin to head back towards Capricornus, which he will re-enter on September 1st.

Jupiter shines brightly at magnitude –2.2, in Libra, in the south-southwest in twilight.

Saturn, passing above the Sagittarius Teapot glows at magnitude +1.0. Look for the yellow planet in the south just after dark. It’s to the upper right of much brighter Mars.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, at the Aries-Pisces border is high in the southeast in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is high in the south in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Pluto, poor Old Pluto, the demoted Dwarf Planet, glows dimly at magnitude 14.2 just above the “handle” of the Sagittarius Teapot. Though now known a Dwarf Planet, I still think he deserves his pedestal in the Elite Nine.

But, since he has been relegated to the Funky Five, and I have included him, I’ll include his four buddies Eris, Ceres, Haumea and Makemake also.

Dwarf Planet Eris, which NASA initially labeled as the “Tenth Planet” and was temporarily named “Xena” after “Xena The Warrior Princess”, shines at an even dimmer magnitude of 18.8 lying just South of Uranus, between Cetus and Pisces.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.8, is in Leo in the West in the twilight, not far from Venus.

Dwarf Planet Haumea, magnitude 17.7, is high overhead in Bootes at midnight.

Dwarf Planet Makemake, magnitude 17.2, is high overhead in Coma Berenices at midnight.

The origin of the name of the constellation Coma Berenices, which means “Berenice’s Hair”, has an interesting story behind it.

Legend has it that Egyptian Queen Berenice II’s husband Ptolemy III Euergetes went on a dangerous mission during the Third Syrian War. Worried for his life she swore to Aphrodite that she would cut off her hair if the goddess brought him safely home. Upon his safe return, she fulfilled her promise and cut off her hair placing it in Aphrodite’s temple. But, her hair disappeared the next day.

This made the King furious.

To appease him, the court astronomer Conon said that Aphrodite was so pleased with Queen Berenice’s offering that she had placed it in the sky, pointing to a small group of stars he hoped the King had never noticed, which pleased Ptolemy III and from that day since the group of stars that has been known as Berenice’s Hair.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on August 10, when she will be 222,502 miles from Earth.

On August 11 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky, which is known as New Moon. This phase occurs at 9:58 UTC or 4:58 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Partial Solar Eclipse on August 11. A partial solar eclipse occurs when the Moon covers only a part of the Sun, sometimes resembling a bite taken out of a cookie. This eclipse will be visible in parts of northeast Canada, Greenland, extreme northern Europe, and northern and eastern Asia. It will be best seen in northern Russia with 68% coverage.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 11 & 12, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17 to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 11 and the morning of August 12.

With the shower coinciding with an invisible New Moon, this should be a great show! Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 23, when she will be 252,118 miles from Earth,

August’s Full Moon will occur August 26 at 11:57 UTC or 6:57 AM CDT. August’s Full Moon was called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans.

Finally, in December we will be greeted by a (hopefully) bright comet, Comet Wirtanen. On December 16 it will pass 7,220,000 miles from Earth and is expected to reach magnitude 3, easily within visible range and large, being so close to the Earth.

Now some comets, well-advertised, end up being cosmic duds, so while I have my hopes up, I also will keep in mind the fizzles of the past. Such as the much heralded “Comet of The Century” Comet Kohoutek” which proved to be a yawner in 1974.

3774 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 19, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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I’m looking for articles and suggestions and ideas for articles for our newsletter. What would you like to see? Send suggestions to wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Thanks for your help!

This month’s meeting will be on August 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way through the heat of Summer.

Our next ALERT meeting will be July 10, when our new Officers take office. Let’s make sure to support, help and encourage them as they steer ALERT into the future.

Dues time also arrives with the July meeting.

So join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so I will remain current.

Speaking of remains, or remaining, that is, I will be continuing as Newsletter Editor.

Articles and suggestions for articles are welcome and encouraged.

Remember, this isn’t “Mark’s Newsletter”. It’s YOUR Newsletter.

Thank you in advance.

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ALERT Election Results For June 2018 – May 2019
By
Casey Benefield, NZ2O

Good afternoon everyone!

The election of officers for ALERT happened at our Tuesday, June 12, 2018 meeting. This was from the election being tabled, by motion of the members, at the May 8th meeting.

THANK YOU, to all of the officers and board members for your service to ALERT, NWS, other hams, and our communities in the past year.

The results are as follows, by vote of acclamation (only nominations made/no challengers voiced at the meetings).

These officers take their official position in July, per the bylaws:

NZ2O: Also included, is a quick description the roles of each officer according to bylaws. I’d say we have been in pretty good shape from last year!

We have a few things to do, to get the year underway.
• Secretary
Justin Glass, N0ZO
Roles in Bylaws:
Maintains the official minutes of meetings of ALERT.
Maintains copies of bylaws and keeps a record of all changes to the bylaws.
In the event of the President and VP becoming unable to fulfill the office of President, the Secretary would hold the office for the remainder of the term or until a special election can be held to fill the vacancy.
• Treasurer/Membership
Bill Rodgers, K4FSO
Roles in Bylaws:
Receives all monies, and maintains accurate record of all receipts and expenditures.
Reports activities and treasury status at each monthly meeting, including regular/emergency expenditures.
Maintains member roster and collects dues, notifies members of dues becoming due.
• NWS Liaison
Russell Thomas, KV4S
Roles in Bylaws:
Serve as the official contact person between ALERT and the NWS for issues/changes in radio operations that need to be addressed by ALERT/NWS.
Keeps and updates the official callout lists and schedule.
Upon NWS request, issues call-outs to the NWS, coordinates the response/shifts.
If needed, contact responders and remind them of scheduling.
Provides NWS with a ‘callout tree’ of personnel who may initiate callouts, in the even the liaison officer is unavailable.
• Vice President
Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX
Roles in Bylaws:
Assists President in duties.
In event that the President is unable to perform duties of office, the VP steps in to perform the duties in absence, and if necessary becomes President and holds office for the remainder of the term.
• President
Casey Benefield, NZ2O
Roles in Bylaws:
Appoints the nominating committee of 2 members in March for next election.
Presides/conducts all meetings.
Votes only in case of tie at regular meetings.
Secures meeting space for meetings.
Appoints committees for specific tasks, be a member of committees.
Appoints non-elected officers

Next steps:
• President names appointed officer positions (coming soon):
o Operations (Off-site events)
Roles: Resolves any communications problems outside the NWS (repeater, link trouble).
This officer has charge over ALERT-owned computer and communication equipment, with leeway to modify, repair, augment or enhance ALERT’s capabilities as he sees fit.
The Operations and NWS Liaison Officers shall work to keep the training officer informed of any new procedures and equipment, to keep members updated.
o Public Information (Social Media Engagement)
Roles: Be a liaison between ALERT and news organizations.
Currently, this includes web/social media engagements, as our involvement with the news is somewhat limited.
o Training
Roles: Maintain and update the procedures manual for operations at the National Weather Service.
Provide workshops at the NWS to all Operational Members of ALERT, intended to provide hands-on training in the operations of the K4NWS station Amateur Radio and computer equipment.
As new equipment and technology is adopted, the training officer shall provide update briefings or trainings to members to keep them aware of the changes.
• President names new board of directors (coming soon):
Casey Benefield (President)
Dale Chambers (Immediate Past President)
A two year member.
A one year member.
The board of directors reviews challenges to membership approval, member standing, discipline, constitutional amendments submitted to the board (to present to membership), hardship review for dues, and conducts any other ALERT business not delegated otherwise in the bylaws.
Meetings are held every June, September, December, March, or any time the President calls a special session.
*Board meetings, except for executive session, are open to ALERT’s voting membership.
• There has been no motion to update ALERT’s formal written budget at this time.
If such a motion is made by a member of ALERT, the budget is to be reviewed by old and new officers of ALERT along with expenditures from previous year, agree on a new budget, and vote in August.
• The board of directors appoints or continues the trustee of the K4NWS callsign.

It’s an honor to work with you all, and an even higher honor to continue that work.

73,

Casey Benefield, NZ2O

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Tales Of Old School CW
By
Mark, WD4NYL

I’m on many Facebook Groups. Many are outdoor survival and emergency preparedness related, though, I do not consider myself a “survivalist” or a “prepper”, as society loves to label folk. I just like having knowledge that will “stack the deck” in my favor if life or nature throws a curveball my way and though I don’t get out there much, I dearly love the outdoors.

I am on several radio groups also, both shortwave, ham and don’t tell anyone….on a CB radio group.

Recently on one of the ham radio groups a gentleman from China who was using a computer program to copy CW, was mystified by much of what he received. The transcript revealed that much was unrecognizable gibberish, but two items kept reappearing which prompted his question “what is the meant of ‘5NN’ and ‘TU’?”

I explained that “5NN” is the signal report “Five Nine Nine” & “TU” is “Thank You”, and noted that CW readers or CW deciphering programs can sometimes have trouble decoding manually send CW signals, because everyone’s sending pattern or “fist” on CW, whether using a keyer or a straight key is different, as it varies depending ones hand strength, flexibility and or the weight they use to “pound the brass”. Also the character spacing and length is slightly different for each person and that on CW nets, operators hearing the same stations over and over can tell who is sending just by the rhythm and quirks of the signal.

This took me back in time to the mid 1980’s when my quest for my Worked All States Award was detoured by me getting involved and absorbed into CW traffic nets. The Worked All States quest I have yet to accomplish, even after 40 years of hamming, due to too many nets, too much VHF and too little HF.

I was Net Manager of the old Alabama Emergency Net Delta, the statewide slow speed CW traffic net, which met on 3.725 MHz. There were about 15 operators and usually we would have 7 or 8 check-ins, which was normal.

As the 5:30 PM net time approached, out of the static came the letters “ARF”. Then someone would bark back “ARF, ARF”. Other nights a chicken would appear “dit dit dit……..dit dah”, “dit dit dit……..dit dah”. Then someone might “meow” back. Then the net would start.

We all knew who was doing what. Harris, WA4JDH in Elba was the initial “barker”. His signal was distinct as it was so very perfect and precise. Being a radio operator for 40 years in the US Navy helped him perfect the art.

The guy barking back was Jake, WA4UCT. His signal was distinct in that he sent with a “heavy fist”. The dashes were slightly longer than the normal “three times longer than a dot” rule. This I liked as, as I could copy it better. In the beginning I had trouble telling an S “dit dit dit” from a U “dit dit dah”, as the ARRL tapes, to me anyway, sent the dashes too short, barely longer than the dot.

The clucking chicken was a gentleman named Red, W4DEU, whose signal had a slight chirp, and the cat was rumored to be me. But, I’ll never tell, as the cat’s got my tongue.

Every station had a slightly different sounding signal. Some were recognizable by the rhythm, some by them being just slightly off frequency, but, always at that same frequency or tone. For we tuned signals to where it suited our ears and not to a “zero beat”, as they would say.

This worked fine on CW nets, but not as well on phone nets.

On the Alabama Traffic Net Mike one Net Control, Bert W4IBU had a very deep base voice and people not knowing this would tune to where his voice would have a normal midrange sound. This of course put them way too high on Bert’s receiver making them sound like Donald Duck. Bert would get aggravated and shout “ZERO BEAT THIS FREQUENCY”. This was of course impossible to do on sideband, as sideband signals don’t have a steady tone to match or “zero beat” against. Only an AM or CW signal do. Today they just say “please tune to this frequency.”

One of our members, Elmo, K4VLL, I saw copy by ear 55 Words Per Minute in a CW contest at the 1982 Birminghamfest. He didn’t win the contest, however, as he couldn’t write the words fast enough at 40 Words Per Minute, and a guy who could write faster won at 45 Words Per Minute. Elmo, who always wore a Styrofoam Chinese Coolie hat covered with QSL cards, said “let’s keep going and see what I top out at.” 55 Words Per Minute sounds like teletype, yet Elmo, at 83 years old just closed his eyes and read it back word for word.

It was a fun time. That crazy group of nuts, most of whom are now silent key, proved that you can have just as much personality, distinctiveness, personal expression and fun on CW, as you ever could on voice.

With that I bide you 73 and a hearty, ARF, ARF, ARF.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

From 1851 to 2017 there have been 120 Tropical Storms and 55 Hurricanes, 25 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.4 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:57 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:47 PM

Looking skyward, Mercury (about magnitude –0.4) is visible in bright twilight about 20° lower right of Venus. Catch it in the narrow time window between when the sky is still too bright and when Mercury sinks too low and sets.

Mercury will reach his highest point above the horizon or Greatest Eastern Longation on July 12 when he will be 26.4 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

Mercury will reach his farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 20.

Venus (magnitude –4.0, in Cancer heading toward Leo) shines brightly in the west-northwest during twilight and just after. In a telescope Venus is a 72% sunlit gibbous disk.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 6, when she will be 9.4508 million miles from our home star.

Mars (magnitude –1.9 in Capricornus) rises only about an hour after dark. Mars is highest in the south, in best view for telescopes, just before the first light of dawn.

On July 27 Mars will be at Opposition, or its closest approach to Earth and its face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. Closing to within 35,994 million miles from Earth, this will be the closest distance since the record closest approach of 34,646 million miles in 2003.

This is the best time to view and photograph Mars, especially the summer hemisphere which is in mid spring.

A medium-sized telescope will allow you to see some of the dark details on the planet’s orange surface.

Or perhaps I should say you would be able if the planet wasn’t in the middle of a widespread dust storm.

In May, just as Autumnal Equinox greeted the southern hemisphere of Mars and just as the Red Planet began to inch into the evening sky, a swath of bright, yellow dust clouds lit up over the dark feature called Mare Acidalium. Within days, the gale had moved south and expanded, covering an area greater than the continent of North America, including the length and breadth of the sprawling Martian canyon system Valles Marineris.

There are signs that the storm is losing strength, but poor visibility of much of the surface should persist for a long time.

These dust storms, the cause of which is not certain, are not rare, moderate size ones occurring every year and global storms having occurred in 2007, 2005 & 2001.

Jupiter (magnitude –2.4, in Libra) shines in the south in twilight and starts to decline in the southwest later in the evening.

Saturn (magnitude 0.0, just above the Sagittarius Teapot) glows low in the southeast in twilight. It stands highest in the south around 1 AM.

Uranus (magnitude 5.9, at the Aries-Pisces border) is in the east just before the beginning of dawn.

Neptune (magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius) is in the southeast just before the beginning of dawn.

New Moon will occur 9:58 PM CDT July 12 or 2:48 UTC July 13. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Partial Solar Eclipse, which is an eclipse which covers only part of the Sun, sometimes resembling a bite taken out of a cookie on July 13. However this eclipse will only be visible in extreme southern Australia and Antarctica.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 12, when she will be 222,098 miles from Earth.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 26, when she will be 252,415 miles from Earth,

July’s Full Moon occurs July 27 at 3:22 PM CDT or 20:22 UTC and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on July 27 visible throughout most of Europe, Africa, western and central Asia, the Indian Ocean, and Western Australia, but, not a speck of North America.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The nearly full moon will be a problem this year, blocking out all but the brightest meteors. But if you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

3735 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 31, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on July 10 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

Our ALERT elections scheduled for the May meeting have been deferred until the June meeting. So make sure to attend and cast your vote & welcome our new leaders as they lead ALERT into the new ALERT year.

In this month’s newsletter we take a glimpse at the past and then review tropical weather as we enter the hurricane season.

I hope you enjoy!

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To Every Thing There Is A Beginning

Irving Vermilya. You probably have never heard this name, but, it has a special place in Amateur Radio history.

In 1901 an eleven year old boy, Irving Vermilya, heard that Guglielmo Marconi had received the letter S across the Atlantic by wireless. Vermilya, then of Mt. Vernon, NY, was determined to visit Marconi in Newfoundland.

According to a 1938 Radio News article and later accounts, Vermilya’s parents granted him permission to visit Marconi after the family minister, Dr. Charles H. Tyndell, offered to accompany him, and Vermilya traveled to Newfoundland and attended a presentation put on by Marconi.

Marconi took notice of the young man in the midst of scientists and engineers, and gave him a coherer and tapper, which he took home and assembled into a radio receiver.

However, in two 1917 QST articles by Vermilya, he mentions nothing about a trip to Newfoundland or a personal audience with Marconi. Instead, he reports that the minister eventually contacted Marconi and obtained the parts, which he passed along to young Vermilya.

Either way, Vermilya got a receiver from Marconi. There were no transmitters on the air, but Vermilya was assured that the set was working, since he could detect the ringing of doorbells up and down the street.

There were no licenses yet, since there was no governing body in existence to issue them, just an increasing number experimenters both researchers and hobbyists tinkering with the emerging technology.

The operators just made up their own call signs for identification. For example Hiram Percy Maxim made up the call SKN. Vermilya used the call sign VN.
When the government began licensing in 1912, the now 23 year old Vermilya hurried to the Brooklyn Navy Yard to be tested.

To obtain a license one had to demonstrate Morse Code proficiency of 5 words per minute and pass a written exam, including essay type questions, making diagrams of transmitting and receiving equipment and explaining how they worked, and demonstrate knowledge of US and international radio regulations.

Vermilya was examined and having passed this test was issued “Certificate of Skill” number 1 and assigned the call sign 1ZE, and thus became the first licensed Amateur Radio operator in the United States. Why he was issued 1ZE and not 1AA I don’t know.

Who became Alabama’s first Amateur Radio operator is perhaps lost in the fading mists of time, but, there is one person who has my vote.

The Second Annual Wireless Blue Book Of The Wireless Association Of America “Containing A List Of United States And American Wireless Telegraph Stations Including Merchant Vessels, Vessels Of The U.S. Navy, Revenue Cutters, U.S. Amateur Stations…..Corrected To June 1st 1910” lists three amateurs from Alabama:

APW – Andrew P Williams, Mobile AL
JFR – J.F. Rivers, Birmingham, AL
JSB – Joe Scalco, Birmingham AL

In the Third Annual Wireless Blue Book from 1911 the list changes to:

QD – Andrew P Williams, Mobile, AL
SG – Sydney G Roberts, Mobile AL

I suspect that amateurs voluntarily submitted information to this publication, and if they didn’t want to or forgot, they just weren’t included, as there were no Alabama Amateurs were listed in the First Blue Book from May 1909.

With the passage of the Radio Act of 1912, the United States was divided into nine Radio Districts, Districts 1 – 9, with an Amateur call sign consisting of the district number followed by letters. There was no Tenth Call District or “Zero Land” as we call it today, all of those states being included in the Ninth District and there were other slight differences in which state was included in what district as compared to today.

Alabama’s 1913 licensed Amateur Radio population consisted of:

5AB – Joe R. Scalco, Birmingham, AL
5AC – Gilbert G. Budwig Birmingham, AL
5AH – Ben W. Martin, Mobile AL
5AM – Harold S. Brownell Birmingham, AL
5AN – Will O, Watkins, Birmingham AL
5AT – Alwyn Vickers, Montgomery AL

Yes, Alabama was once in the Fifth Call District or “Area”. Alabama remained there until 1928 when for whatever reason we were shifted to the Fourth Call Area. A vestige of those days which has survived is that radiogram traffic sent to and from Alabama’s National Traffic System Section Nets – the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, Alabama Section Net & the Alabama Day Net are routed through RN5 or the Fifth Region Net rather than 4RN, or the Fourth Region Net.

Who gets my vote as Alabama’s first ham? I vote Joe Scalco – JSB as possibly the first unlicensed operator, and most certainly the first licensed Alabama ham – 5AB. (5AA was issued to Eugene Knight of Little Rock Arkansas).

105 years later David E Tolbert of Bay Minette holds the distinction of being Alabama’s newest ham – KN4MOL.

And, so the tradition continues…

(Special Thanks to Ronnie King WX4RON who suggested this article.)

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. NOAA has released their seasonal prediction, which calls for a 75% chance of a “near or above normal” season with 10 – 16 named storms, 5 – 9 hurricanes and 1 – 4 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, Colorado State University predicts 14 named storms, 7 of which could become hurricanes this year and 3 storms may reach Category 3 or stronger, with a 63% chance of the continental U.S. getting hit by a major hurricane.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really how many storms actually do form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina.
2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/
and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving, can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 16 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Felix, which took just 51 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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2018 Tropical Cyclone Names

The 2018 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie & William.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2024. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms.

If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

 

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 22 minutes 27 seconds at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 20 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is lost in the glow of sunrise. On June 5 Mercury will be at “Superior Conjunction”, or on the exact opposite side of the Sun from Earth and the next day will be at “perihelion” his closest approach to the Sun.

Brilliant Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Gemini shines brightly in the west-northwest during evening twilight just after reaching her highest point in the evening sky. Venus is a gibbous disk 81% sunlit.

Mars, magnitude -1.2 has moved from Sagittarius into Capricorn and rises around midnight.
Mars is brightening rapidly now, on its way to an unusually close approach to Earth, or opposition in late July. He is already slightly bigger than at its poorest oppositions.

Jupiter, shining very brightly at magnitude -2.5 is well up in the south-southeast as twilight fades. He is highest in the south around 11 PM or Midnight, presenting the sharpest views in a telescope.

Saturn, magnitude +0.3 just above the Sagittarius Teapot, rises in the southeast soon after the end of twilight and stands highest in the south around 3 a.m.

On June 27 Saturn will be at opposition and his face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. He will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long.

This is the best time to view and photograph Saturn and its moons. A telescope will allow you to see Saturn’s rings and the moon Titan.

Uranus is hidden in the glow of the dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius, is low in the east-southeast before the beginning of dawn.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 2 at a distance of 251852 Miles.

New Moon will occur June 13 at 2:44 PM CDT or 7:44 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 14 at a distance of 223837 Miles.

Summer Solstice will occur at 5:07 AM CDT or 10:07 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

This shower will be largely washed out by the Full Moon

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 27 at 11:53 PM CDT or 4:53 UTC June 28. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth again on June 29 at a distance of 252315 Miles.

3730 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 24, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on June 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these coolish spring days.

Our next ALERT meeting will be May 8 and will feature our annual elections.

If you are a paid up Operational or Supporting Member, which is a member interested in Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license (yet), you may vote in the 2018 – 2019 ALERT leadership elections.

The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting.

We will also be voting on Proposed Amendment 7, which was published in last month’s newsletter at the May 8 meeting.

I hope to see you there!

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Then & Now
–
Monitoring Distress Frequencies

The concept of regularly monitoring certain frequencies for distress signals has been around for a long time, for over a century, in fact. After the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Third International Radiotelegraphic Convention set regulations designating 500 kHz or 600 Meters as an international distress frequency, and for 86 years, from 1913 to 1999 the US Coast Guard, similar services of other nations and vessels at sea would maintain a 24 hour watch on 500 kHz, handling countless SOS calls and medical emergencies at sea, at first using spark gap CW transmissions and later the standard CW signals which we are familiar with today.

One problem that was encountered was that non-emergency communications were also allowed and routinely being conducted on this single frequency. How could a distress signal hope to break through the racket?

To solve this, the following rule was implemented: “Coastal stations engaged in the transmission of long radiograms … and shipboard stations working under the conditions….shall suspend work at the end of each period of 15 minutes and listen in with a wave length of 600 meters during a period of three minutes before resuming the transmission.”

When working distress traffic, all non-distress traffic was banned from 500 kHz and adjacent coast stations then monitored 512 kHz as an additional calling frequency for ordinary traffic.

The silent and monitoring periods were soon expanded and standardized. The 1914 “Radio Communication Laws of the United States”, stated ”operators of all coast stations are required, during the hours the station is in operation, to ‘listen in’ at intervals of not more than 15 minutes and for a period not less than 2 minutes, with the receiving apparatus tuned to receive this wave length, for the purpose of determining if any distress signals or messages are being sent and to determine if the transmitting operations of the ‘listening station’ are causing interference with other radio communication.”

As a visual memory aid, in a ship’s radio room would have a clock that would have the silence periods marked by shading the sectors between hour +15 to hour +18 and hour +45 to hour +48 in RED. Similar sectors between hour +00 to hour +03 and hour +30 to hour +33 marked in GREEN were added later which was the corresponding silence period for the new 2.182 MHz USB voice communications distress signals.

Another problem that was encountered was interference from the broadband spark gap transmissions from non-commercial radio experimenters. There is a theory that the marine radio operators coined a derogatory term for these “amateur radio operators”. “I can’t hear anything for these ‘hams’”, they would say. This may be the reason why we are called “hams” today.

To solve this problem, the pesky “hams” were shifted to the “useless wavelengths” above 200 Meters, or 1500 kHz.

The use of the 500 kHz frequency was discontinued in 1999 in favor of The Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS), which set safety procedures, types of equipment, and communication protocols used to increase safety and make it easier to rescue distressed ships, boats and aircraft.

GMDSS consists of several systems, including Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) using the Cospas-Sarsat satellite-based search and rescue system on 406.0 & 406.1 MHZ, Navtex, an international, automated system for instantly distributing via text maritime safety information, including navigational warnings, weather forecasts and weather warnings, search and rescue notices and similar information to ships.

A small, low-cost and self-contained “smart” printing radio receiver is installed on the bridge, or the place from where the ship is navigated, which monitors 518 kHz in English. 490 kHz is sometime used to broadcast in a local language.

MF and VHF maritime radio still play a vital part of the GMDSS system, including VHF Marine Channel 16 156.800 MHz and 2.182 MHz USB used for distress, safety and calling.

Though the requirement to maintain a listening watch aboard GMDSS-equipped ships on 2.182 MHz ended in 1999, it is still required that ships operating off the U.S. coast and radio equipped vessels operating on inland rivers and lakes monitor Marine Channel 16.

This is very similar to aviation protocols of ground stations and aircraft monitoring the aircraft distress frequencies 121.500 MHz for civilian aircraft and 243.00 MHz for military aircraft.

Hams & CONELRAD

During the Cold War another monitoring program involved hams.

From 1957 to 1962, hams were required to monitor a local broadcast station at intervals of 10 minutes or less whenever they were operating, and if the broadcast station went off the air due to an emergency, hams had to leave the air as well.

Several companies marketed special receivers that monitored local broadcast stations, sounding an alarm and automatically deactivating the amateur’s transmitter when the broadcast station went off the air.

One was the Heathkit CA-1 “’Automatic’ CONELRAD Alarm Kit

In the event of an incoming nuclear attack by the Soviet Union, to prevent the Soviet long range bombers form using America’s broadcast stations as homing beacons, as the Japanese did when they used the signals from Honolulu’s KGMB (now KSSK) 590 kHz and KGU 760 kHz to lead their aircraft to Pearl Harbor, or as German bombers also did when attacking cities in Europe.

In the event of an emergency, all United States television and FM radio stations were required to stop broadcasting.

Most AM medium-wave stations would shut down, and a system called CONELRAD – Control of Electromagnetic Radiation, would be implemented.

CONELRAD had a simple system for alerting the public and other “downstream” stations, consisting of a sequence of shutting the station off for five seconds, returning to the air for five seconds, again shutting down for five seconds, returning to the air again for five seconds, and then transmitting a 1 kHz tone for 15 seconds. Key stations would be alerted directly. All other broadcast stations would monitor a designated station in their area.

The stations that stayed on the air would transmit on either 640 or 1240 kHz. They would transmit for several minutes and then go off the air, and another station would take over on the same frequency in a “round robin” chain. The 640 and 1240 AM frequencies were selected to confuse enemy aircraft Radio Direction Finders or RDF’s, as it would be very difficult for enemy aircraft with RDF to get a “lock” on any signal accurately.

By law, radio sets manufactured between 1953 and 1963 had these two frequencies marked by the triangle-in-circle, or “CD Mark”, the symbol of Civil Defense.

As simplistic as it may sound now, it wasn’t a bad idea for the time.

The CONELRAD system ended with the implementation of the Emergency Broadcast System in 1963, which in turn was superseded by the Emergency Alert System in 1997, which is in use today.

REACT

At this point in our discussion, an honorable mention should be given to a group called REACT – the Radio Emergency Associated Communication Team.

Starting in 1962 these souls took on the unenviable task of monitoring 27.065 MHz, also called CB Channel 9, for emergency calls.

During the 1960’s very little activity was heard on the CB band. This I know because one Christmas, when I was 7 or 8 years old, I was given some Channel 14 walkie talkies (no one called them HT’s back then) which I and my brother played with. These, sets, while being crystal controlled for transmit, had very wide open receivers, receiving anything in the 11 Meter band, because they were basically junk. During the brief time we used them, I heard only one other station come through the ether.

Ten years later, in 1976, I found one of the pair in the closet and out of curiosity popped a 9 volt battery in and thought the receiver must have been shot, as there were dozens upon dozens of people doubling, tripling, cussing and screeching on top of each other.

The CB Boom was booming.

Two factors made the CB Boom the disaster that it was. One being that it was the fad of the day which suddenly plopped two million people into 23 channels, soon to be increased to 40, seemingly drawing every lunatic on the planet. The second factor was that the boom hit just as the sunset cycle was heading towards its peak. So not only did you have to deal with the local nut cases, you had a few hundred thousand intimate friends from California dumping in on you via the ionosphere as well.

Why the FCC would create a service meant for local communications in a DX band is still hard to comprehend.

If you have a CB, which I still do, the same old 23 channel Midland from 1976, and you listen, while you can still on occasion hear some of the same shenanigans you could hear back “in the day”, it is a pale comparison to the muddled maelstrom of muck it was back then. But, to be fair, even back then, though it didn’t seem as such, more operators than not wanted and tried to operate in as “proper a fashion” as they knew how, as many were or later would became hams.

Though REACT is still in existence, there are no longer any REACT Teams in Alabama. The closest listed teams are Units 4623 in Macon GA, 6251 in Etowah, TN & 6191 in Crestview FL.

Those still active rarely use CB, having added FRS, GMRS, Multi-Use Radio Service (MURS), Trunked radio systems, business band radio (LMR) and even amateur radio to their operations. Their original purpose, to monitor CB, has largely gone by the wayside.

Through it all REACT has tried their best to pull signals out of the chaos and help their fellow man. Which is to be commended.

The BARC Notification Proposal

Back to ham radio, in the 1980’s, before the idea of ALERT was conceived, there was a proposal among some of the local hams involved in Emergency Communications, namely the operators which BARC would send to the NWS when it was located in Homewood, that a system be implemented where hams could be better alerted if an emergency arose and that they needed to activate.

Remembering that in the 1980’s email & cellphones did not yet exist and pagers were few and far between, most notifications were done by a telephone call tree, which was cumbersome, but, the best method they had.

Birmingham’s ham radio landscape had grown to include six repeaters, the BARC repeater then 146.94 MHz, Hop Hayes K4TQR and Henry Wingate K4HAL’s 146.76 MHz repeater, Ronnie Pitts 146.88 MHz repeater, which would later to be donated to BARC. 146.94 had a better location and 146.88 was a better frequency which wouldn’t interfere with Huntsville, as would occasionally happen, and since the 94 & 88 repeaters were identical, they swapped crystals, and 94 became the 88 we know and love today. 94 later became the 145.45 repeater and years later was converted to D-Star. There was also the 147.14 aka the “Hueytown Repeater”, WA4MHO’s 147.33 repeater and 147.28, the Telephone Pioneer Repeater. There were also one, maybe two 440 MHz repeaters.

None of these repeaters were “toned”, for with the exception of repeaters on the West Coast, PL toned repeaters were not in vogue, or really necessary at that point. In fact, PL toned repeaters were sometimes mistakenly considered a sign of ham radio snobbery, akin to the imagery of the term “closed repeater”. Which in turn was viewed, rightly or wrongly, as a “we want us four, no more on here”, approach which did and does exist in certain locales and circles.

The Shelby County repeater had not yet found a permanent home on the radio dial, which is worthy of a story of its own.

Shelby County needed a repeater and the Repeater Council gave them a frequency. But, as luck and bad Karma would dictate, that frequency did not work out, nor would the next, nor would the ones that followed. Try as they may, every pair they were given would interfere with someone over the horizon, or vice versa or end up having a spur from an FM broadcast station blasting in.

The radio terminology has evolved over the years, and at this time when referring to a repeater frequency they would mention the input as well as output, as some repeaters had reverse offsets. For instance 146.88 MHz was called 28/88, 146.76 MHz was 16/76 and so on.

Using the terminology of the day, Shelby County tried 147.63/03, 147.715/115, and some weird 43 frequency, as I recall, all to no avail. Then they decided to try 147.385 MHz or 985/385. It was a “splinter frequency” ending in a 5 and was a reverse combination of anything out there.

That would cure the problem….almost, anyway.

As is the natural cycle of things, every morning as the Sun rises, the Sun heats up the upper and then mid layers of the atmosphere, while the lower levels remain cold or colder. Warm air topping cold air is a temperature inversion, and those will trap radio signals, sending them far beyond the horizon. It’s a daily occurrence, sometimes weak, sometimes strong. Sometimes only a few minutes, sometimes beyond noon, but, it is fairly reliable, and is independent of the Sun’s quirky ways.

There was this one stinking repeater in Kentucky on the exact opposite frequencies, 385/985. Every morning someone here or there would key up one repeater which in turn would key up the other repeater and they would lock up. They would time each other out, revive, and do it again, hour upon hour, with a screech that the memory of makes my skin crawl today.

Finally, perhaps in desperation they decided to reverse the frequency pair and detune it down 5 kHz to 146.38/98 MHz, which by some miracle worked, which is why the Shelby County repeater is on 146.98 MHz today.

But, back to the BARC proposal, it was proposed that they take a repeater, probably on 2 meters, maybe on 440, and normally run it without a PL tone. If an emergency occurred the Net Control Station or Repeater Trustee would activate a transmit PL tone, the purpose of which was to break the PL toned squelches of radios at home, which would be monitoring 24/7, but, normally remain silent, as the normal signal and random chitchat wouldn’t break the PL toned squelch and drive operators crazy, especially at 3 AM in the morning.

The plan, though interesting, was never implemented. Possibly due to the cost of the equipment, as tone encoding radios were still fairly new and expensive, and perhaps due to the NWS moving to Shelby County, and then ALERT being formed not that long after.

Incidentally, ALERT used Alpha pagers for callout notifications in its early days, and now of course we use text messaging and email for callout announcements.

One thing we learned to avoid was accidentally saying “we will need help at the NWS” as you could easily get random guys just showing up, usually well meaning, sometimes just to impress their buddies, but clueless in either case, the babysitting of which would just hamstring operations.

The Wilderness Protocol

In February 1994 N6XMW, William Alsup of Oakland California proposed in QST Magazine a “’Wilderness Protocol’ for the effective simplex use of handheld VHF and FM transceivers in the Backcountry.””

The proposed frequency range was two meters, with the National Simplex Calling Frequency 146.52 MHz being suggested.

It was reported in the August 1995 QST that there was “’enthusiastic support of the proposal’ and it was reminded to spread the use of the protocol.”

QST feature editor Brian Battles, WS1O added “Remember, though, this protocol won’t work if it’s only used by hams who need to call for help – someone else has to be listening.” Alsup’s original proposal was only for 2 meter use, but Battles urged hams to, “Check the national calling frequencies on all bands for which you’re equipped, and give your call sign once or twice so that others will know you’re there.”

The Wilderness Protocol is now included in the ARRL ARES Emergency Resources Manual. Per the manual, the protocol is:

“The Wilderness Protocol calls for hams in the wilderness to announce their presence on, and to monitor, the national calling frequencies for five minutes beginning at the top of the hour, every three hours from 7 AM to 7 PM while in the back country. A ham in a remote location may be able to relay emergency information through another wilderness ham who has better access to a repeater.”

Though this concept was originally designed to be used mainly in the wilderness settings, it’s not just for hikers, back packers, or similar situations. It is also available for anyone anywhere to use anytime assistance is needed.

Recommended procedures for the “Wilderness Protocol” are as follows:

MONITOR THE PRIMARY CALLING FREQUENCY: 146.520 MHz and or any of these
SECONDARY FREQUENCIES: 52.525 MHz, 223.500 MHz, 446.000 MHZ and 1294.500 MHz.

MONITOR TIMING: Every 3 hours starting from 0700 Hours local time, on the hour until 5 minutes past the hour. Listen from 7:00-7:05 AM, 10:00-10:05 AM, 1:00-1:05 PM, 4:00–4:05 PM and 7:00-7:05 PM.

ALTERNATE TIMING: From 06:55 to 07:05, etc., beginning at 5 minutes before till 5 minutes after, to allow for differences in peoples watch settings. You can always listen for longer if you wish.

ENHANCED MONITORING: Some suggest extending the monitoring time by extending adding 10:00-10:05 PM. Fixed stations or portable stations with enough battery power levels listen every hour. Continuous Monitoring is also an option.

LISTENING / MONITORING: Listen to the calling frequencies until 4 minutes past the hour, and then make a few calls asking if there are stations listening that may need assistance. This calling traffic should only start at 4 minutes after the hour preceded by listening for 30 seconds, unless of course you’re the one making an emergency call.

LISTEN FIRST: Then call CQ with short transmissions.

Note: 146.520 MHz is a CALLING FREQUENCY. Make your Calls, and then move off the frequency so others can use the frequency. Suggested frequencies to move to: 146.550 MHz, 146.430 MHZ, etc.

PRIORITY TONE SIGNALS: Suggested for Priority Radio Transmissions ONLY, using LONG TONE ZERO (abbreviated LiTZ).

USING THE LONG TONE ZERO: Begin calls for assistance with about 10 seconds of tone by keying up and holding down the zero key to continuously transmit the zero DTMF tone (hence: LONG TONE ZERO). Then proceed to make your emergency call. This should help those listening to realize that an emergency or priority call is coming through.

Some addition thoughts by Bob Witte, K0NE of Colorado are:

“The Wilderness Protocol is a good idea but is overly complex for practical use. Here’s my proposal to make it much simpler for practical backcountry use:

Principle #1: Don’t ever rely on a radio or mobile phone to get you out of trouble in the backcountry. Your primary strategy must be self-sufficiency. Avoid trouble. Be prepared for the unexpected.

Principle #2: Know what repeaters are available in your area. We have many wide coverage repeaters available but you need to know the frequency, offset and CTCSS tone (if any)….

Principle #3: In remote areas, monitor 146.52 MHz as much as possible. This applies to backcountry travelers, mobile stations and fixed stations.”

Distress Signals

One subject that should be emphasized in ham training is how to get help via amateur radio. Do you really know how to seek help?

Just saying “Hey can someone out thar call the pair of medics over to the Wall Smart” just might not suffice, especially if they don’t say which Wall Smart they mean.

This is as useless as someone calling you on the phone and saying “CALL 911!” and hanging up. Send them where? Why? Who – police or fire department?

How do you transmit a distress call on a radio? I’m glad you asked.

Now the following is to be used only for bonifide EXTREME emergencies. Using it in any other case and you could end up making license plates.

Distress calling procedure:

1. Tune to your local Club, ARES / Skywarn frequency or the most heavily populated frequency you know of or 146.520 Simplex.
2. If you hear stations on frequency, break in and attempt to contact them.
3. If they hear and acknowledge you, calmly give your situation, remembering the “who, what, where, when and why” rules. Then wait at the location for help. Don’t wander off. That turns a rescue into a search and rescue. In 99% of the cases STAY PUT.
4. If it seems no one has heard you, or you can’t hit the repeater, then you will have to “broadcast in the blind”. Don’t let the words “broadcast in the blind” scare you. You do this every time you send a CQ or throw your call out on a silent repeater seeking a contact. If you are on a repeater frequency and can turn the offset or frequency shift off, transmit Simplex on the repeater output. That’s where people listen. They may hear your faint signal.
5. Say slowly and clearly the words “MAYDAY” three times.
6. Say, “This is” and give your call sign three times and your name once.
7. Give your position as exact as possible. Give your address, or street / cross street, or highway mile marker (you do you pay attention to those little green signs, don’t you?) or if you have GPS, your latitude and longitude. Or give your distance to any well-known landmark that may help rescuers locate the incident location. Use the best or most logical options you have. Giving latitude and longitude, when you know the street and cross street is a little kooky. Use common sense.
8. Give the nature of the emergency – medical, fire, criminal, etc.
9. Indicate the type of assistance required – police, EMS, etc.
10. Say “over” and listen.

Example:

“Mayday – Mayday – Mayday. This is WD4NYL, WD4NYL, WD4NYL. My name is Mark Wells. I’m located on Highway 45 near Johnson Road. I’ve just been in an accident and I’m trapped in my car. Please call 911 and send the fire department. Over”.

If someone responds, great! If not, there is a decent chance someone listening on a scanner could be calling 911.

If you hear no response, repeat the above for two minutes and then listen for three. If still no answer, to save your batteries, cut off the radio and wait until the top of the hour and begin calling again. It’s good if you indicate that you are going to do this, so someone listening will know to listen again.

Now let’s complicate things a bit. Suppose you are the only one who can hear the distress signal, but, no one can hear you either. Guess it’s just tough luck for that Dude, right? “Oh well, probably an <insert team of your choice> fan anyway. Cest le vie and all that…”

Not necessarily, as there is also a procedure for relaying a Mayday.

Example:

“Mayday Relay – Mayday Relay – Mayday Relay. This is WD4NYL, WD4NYL, WD4NYL. My name is Mark Wells, I am receiving a Mayday from Joe Blow. He is located on Highway 45 near Johnson Road. He has been in an accident and is trapped in his car. Please call 911 and send the fire department. Over”.

This method is the recommended procedure for marine radios and can be effectively used on both the ham bands or on the 11-meter band.

And, yes, even though we may cuss it, every amateur in emergency communications or planning on going on a trip, should have a CB radio stashed somewhere in their “tool chest”.

Repeaters may die; whole forests of repeaters may be uninhabited just when you need someone the most, or you may get stuck somewhere between the Podunk and Possum Hollow repeaters. But, chances are some Bubba is listening on Channel 9 or even more likely on Channel 19. He may call 911…. or he may just come in his dually and help haul you out of that ditch.

Giving oneself multiple options is savvy move, one that could save your life someday.

Always have one or more backup plans.

(Special Thanks to Michael Lamb, KK4OHW who suggested this article.)

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2016 there have been 23 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May

After the costliest Atlantic hurricane season in history last year, early forecasts indicate 2018 will be above average.

Look for 14 named storms, and there’s a greater than normal chance of a major system striking the U.S., according to Colorado State University.

Seven storms could become hurricanes this year and three storms may reach Category 3 or stronger according to the forecast. There’s a 63 percent chance the continental U.S. will get hit by a major hurricane, compared with the 20th Century average of 52 percent.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.43 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:40 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:51 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is very low, deep in the glow of sunrise.

Brilliant Venus, magnitude -3.9 shines brightly in the west in twilight. It doesn’t set now until about a half hour after nightfall becomes complete. On May 15th Venus well be at perihelion, or her closest distance to the Sun, 66.8 million miles.

In a telescope Venus is slightly gibbous, being 90% sunlit.

Mars, magnitude -0.2 in Sagittarius rises around 2 AM.

Mars is brightening on its way to an unusually close opposition, or close distance to Earth in late July.

Jupiter, shining very brightly at magnitude -2.5 in Libra, rises around the end of twilight after dark and shines as the brightest point in the sky after Venus sets. He is approaching his closest approach to Earth, or Opposition, 409 million miles, on May 9th so it appears about as bright and big as he will get this year. He is highest in the south, presenting the sharpest views in a telescope, being fully illuminated by the Sun around 1 or 2 AM daylight-saving time.

This is the best time to view and photograph Jupiter and its moons. A medium-sized telescope should be able to show you some of the details in Jupiter’s cloud bands. A good pair of binoculars should allow you to see Jupiter’s four largest moons, appearing as bright dots on either side of the planet.

By dawn he is getting low in the southwest.

Saturn, magnitude +0.4 in Sagittarius rises around 2 AM, with Mars to the lower left.

This region of the sky has always been one of my favorite places to explore with binoculars, as you are looking into Sagittarius Arm of the Milky Way and toward the center of the galaxy. Give me a dark sky away from the city lights, a pair of binoculars, and I will easily become lost for hours draped on a car hood drifting among the star clouds and nebulae of Sagittarius. It’s almost like really being “up there”.

Uranus is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Neptune is deep the glow of dawn.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 5 at a distance of 251319 Miles.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It is capable of producing up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but, most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 43 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The waning gibbous moon will block most of the fainter meteors this year, but you should be able to catch quite a few good ones if you are patient. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur May 15 at 6:48 AM CDT or 11:48 UTC. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky This is the best time of the month to observe faint deep sky objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on May 17 at a distance of 226041 Miles.

Full Moon will occur May 29th at 9:19 AM CDT or 14:19 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

3725 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
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