Hi everyone,
I hope all is well as we enter these midsummer days. As you bake and broil in the sun, remember
that fall is just a little over a month away, and eventually the heat and humidity will retreat back
towards the tropical realms from whence it came and in about 6 months we will be griping and
wishing we could borrow one of these days for a welcomed winter thaw.
Our next ALERT meeting will be on August 13. Dues are still due, so if you missed the July
meeting, as I did, grab the piggy bank and come to the meeting.
I hope to see you there!
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The Strangers Among Us Revisited

In the February 2018 and March 2019 Newsletters I wrote two articles titled “The Strangers Among
Us” and “Non-Amateur Radio Options For Emergency Preparedness” covering the increasingly
frequent practice of Preppers and others of purchasing ham equipment, most notably $20
Baofeng UV-5R handie talkies to “put in my Bug Out Bag” or for buddies to use covertly in the
woods for hunting, and other activities, all without bothering to obtain an Amateur Radio License.
The problem addressed has not gone away, and in fact is much worse as thousands are
purchasing these radios for their Bug Out Bags, keeping track with buddies on the road and to
keep track of the kids. All of which would really be better suited by MURS, FRS or CB radios.
As mentioned in these articles, if you look at advertisements on Amazon, EBay, Wish and other
online retail sites, unless you read the comments section, if they have one, there is not a single
reference to any licensing requirement. Nor does the operation manual mention one. So, it’s
entirely possible that many, if not most people simply do not realize that an FCC license is
required.
Others simply don’t care. “Just another buck in the governments wallet”, “they just want to be
able to track you”, “my beeswax, not yours” etc, etc.
The most favored justification is “in an emergency, who cares?” quoting the oft used or perhaps
misused excuse “it is perfectly legal to use any radio transmitter on any frequency to seek
emergency lifesaving help.”
But, “Fran, its Mom, you about through in there, the others need to use it too?”, “Hey Joe, when
you pick up the beer, can you get me some tater chips too?” and “Change lanes up ahead Bob, or
you’re gonna end up in Memphis” are not “lifesaving” situations.
Though random operators thinking these are just advanced walkie-talkies might randomly show
up on any ham frequency, there are other groups that take this to another level.

In addition to HF frequencies, the following frequencies are listed or promoted on various sites as
“Prepper”, “Patriot” and “Redoubter” frequencies.
146.420 MHz x
146.520 MHz x
146.530 MHz
146.550 MHz x
146.680 MHz
445.975 MHz
446.000 MHz
446.025 MHz
446.030 MHz x
x most frequently referenced frequencies.
Now if private individuals, family groups or participants in an organization have a ham licenses
and follow the FCC rules and don’t use it for questionable or illegal purposes, there’s no problem.
It’s the influx of people lacking a license and the consequently lacking any knowledge of radio
protocols and procedures or even what Amateur Radio is about, or wanting to use it, for example
for purposes ranging from off-roading to paramilitary operations, that is the problem.
Curious as to whether any such activity is occurring locally, I dug out an old scanner and began
monitoring these frequencies. On July 18 I heard two men navigating through traffic on I-65,
trying to find the correct lane to turn onto I-59/20 heading for Tuscaloosa. “Dad, will you please
just follow me?”
For a couple of weeks, off and on, I have repeatedly heard a faint dead carrier on 146.880, possibly
the same person who likes blowing into the microphone, as heard last week.
I am told that there is a fellow using foul language and threatening people on several area
repeaters.
So, if nothing else, shenanigans are afoot.
So how do we address this problem?
1. Be aware that the problem exists. You can’t address something, if you blissfully ignore it.
2. If you become aware of someone planning on getting a radio minus a license, educate them.
Tell them how to become a ham and invite them. One of three things will happen, they may give
up the idea, they may brush you off and do it anyway or they may study and get their license and
become a valuable member of the ham community.
Tell those getting these radios for preparedness purposes that obtaining a license allows them to
use and become knowledgeable about their equipment and radio properties in general, allowing
them to become proficient in operating procedures before disaster strikes, giving them an edge in
preparing. This seems to be effective, while promising them that the FCC paddy wagon will be
showing up for them does not.
3. If you find a person bootlegging on the air, don’t talk to them. If you are already talking to them
and figure out that they are bootlegging simply say “I’m sorry, but you have to have a valid FCC
Amateur Radio license to be on this frequency. This is K#4### clear.”

Call the repeater trustee or a club officer, and let them know what is going on. Talking to them will
only encourage them to continue and the “I’m gonna open a can of whoop butt on you” approach
can backfire and inspire them to interfere with every net and QSO in central Alabama.
As to deliberate interference and which is basically “RF trolling”, simply ignore the person. Do
not acknowledge them or even hint that you know they exist. They will figure they their efforts are
ineffective and eventually get bored and leave. If you engage with them and argue with them, you
have satisfied their need for attention, and as the say “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
I’ll throw this in. Over the years I have been a ham, hams that have been caught deliberately
interfering, in more cases than not, turn out being someone who has been licensed for years, and
sometimes even decades, not turn new hams or CBers as it assumed and loudly proclaimed.
Why they became soured with the hobby and perhaps life in general, we never know. To put years
into a hobby and then only to throw it all away is sad, to say the least.
4. Clubs and groups, if you are not active in “foxhunting” and direction finding, you may want to
get involved in this activity. Those already involved in these need to hone their skills so you can
locate these individuals so you can turn them and the evidence you gather over to the FCC.
Remembering that though tarring and feathering may be tempting please let the FCC be the one
that does it.
We really don’t want to see you on the evening news.
The frequencies 27.025 and 7.200 MHz, though in different radio services, have something in
common.
27.025, CB Channel 6, is known by CBers as the “Superbowl”. Though CB has much improved
over the wild and wooly days of the 1970’s, Channel 6 is still a radio free-for-all of people using
echo mics, roger beeps, excessive power levels, audio splattering over half the CB band,
repetitive nonsensical blathering, and radio procedures that would make the Three Stooges
proud.
7.200 MHz, ham radio’s version of CB Channel 6, is not much better with foul language, deliberate
interference, and every type of radio garbage you could think of being transmitted.
Given these shining examples of how bad things can be, let’s work to see that two meters doesn’t
become a radio wasteland that these two other shining beacons have become.
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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor
of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.
August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.
The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the
growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big
Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon
upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.
Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms
forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking
the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or
Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851
to 2018 there have been 391 Tropical Storms and 246 Hurricanes, 81 of which made landfall in the
United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille and Katrina in 1969 and 2005,
which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida
in 1992.
21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have
not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.4
degrees at the beginning of the month to 65.0 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases
from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 54 minutes on August 31.
Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:
August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:34 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM
Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, Mercury is hidden behind the glow of the Sun.
Mercury then emerges into dawn and by on August 9 He will reach his highest point above the
Eastern horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation” when he will be 19.0 degrees from the Sun.
This is the best time to view Mercury since he will be at his highest point above the horizon in the
morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Mercury will be at his closest approach to the Sun or Perihelion on August 20.
Venus, is hidden behind the Sun. Venus will be at her closest approach to the Sun on August 8.
She will pass directly behind the Sun or be at Superior Conjunction on August 14.
Mars is also hidden behind the Sun.
Mars will be at his farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on August 25.
Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, between the legs of Ophiuchus, is the white point glaring in the south
during and after dusk.
Saturn, magnitude +0.1, in Sagittarius, is the steady, pale yellowish "star" in the south-southeast
during and after dusk, 31° left of Jupiter. Look lower right of Saturn for the Sagittarius Teapot.
In a telescope Saturn's rings are tilted a wide 24.7° to our line of sight.
Saturn will pass directly behind the moon at 5:07 AM on August 12.
Uranus, magnitude 5.8, in Aries, is high in the southeast before the first beginnings of dawn.
Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius, is high in the south as dawn breaks.
The moon will be at Perigee or her closest approach to Earth on August 2, when she will be
223,319 miles from Earth.
The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour.
This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as
the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17
to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 12 and the morning of August 13.
This year the shower coincides with a nearly Full Moon, which will wash out all but the brightest
meteors. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.
August’s Full Moon will occur August 15 at 12:30 UTC or 7:30 AM CDT. August’s Full Moon was
called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon
Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes
were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn
Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial
Americans.
The moon will be at Apogee or her farthest distance from Earth on August 17, when she will be
252,428 miles from Earth.
On August 30 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be
visible in the night sky, which is known as New Moon. This phase occurs at 10:37 UTC or 5:37 AM
CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters
because there is no moonlight to interfere.
Though July’s New Moon was on July 31 at 10:12 CDT, it was also at 3:12 UTC, August 1.
Therefore by UTC time August will have two New Moons.
You may remember that a second of Full Moon in a single month is popularly called a “Blue
Moon”, but what about two New Moons in a single month?

A second New Moon in a month is a “Black Moon”.
Now a more persnickety definition, is the third Full Moon in a season which has four Full Moons is
a Blue Moon and the third New Moon in a season which has four New Moons is a Black Moon.
A third definition says a Black Moon is a month with no Full Moon
A fourth definition states that it is a month with no New Moon, which last happened in 2014, and
will next occur on February 2033.
No one writes songs about Black Moons. “Black Moon, you saw me standing alone….”
It just doesn’t “sing”,
The Black Moon will be at her second Perigee or closest approach to Earth on August 30, when
she will be 221,939 miles from Earth.
4025 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 25, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

I’m looking for articles and suggestions and ideas for articles for our newsletter. What would you
like to see? Send suggestions to wd4nyl@bellsouth.net
Thanks for your help!
This month’s meeting will be on August 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office
at the Shelby County Airport.
If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via
telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way through the heat of Summer.

Our next ALERT meeting will be July 9, when our new Officers take office. Let’s make sure to support, help and encourage them as they steer ALERT into the future.

Dues time also arrives with the July meeting.

So join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so I will remain current.

See you there!

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Storm Spotting vs Storm Chasing

One sunny day in 1943, on a small atoll in the Solomon Islands, a fisherman sat on a pier mending his nets. Suddenly his attention was captured by the whine of propellers and he looked up and saw a formation of aircraft passing over.

Rushing to his radio shack he looked at charts to determine if it was American, British or Japanese aircraft and by comparing the size of the image with the size of the aircraft he had seen he estimated the aircrafts approximate altitude.

He then flipped a switch and the tubes of an HF radio began glowing. Reaching for the microphone he called the base taking the reports in Port Moresby, New Guinea and said “This is Red Robin, Red Robin, eight Mitsubishi bombers at 11,000 feet moving Northeast, over.”

The report was acknowledged and he powered down his radio and after getting a drink of water he headed back to the pier and his nets, keeping an eye on the horizon beyond the palm lined beach and an ear towards the sky.

The fisherman was just one of dozens of people, average civilians, scattered across the Southwestern Pacific islands, called Coast Watchers. Their only job was to report when they spotted enemy ships passing by or enemy planes flying overhead. They were not interceptors, they were spotters only.

Though the circumstances and targets are certainly different, they almost could be thought of as the ancestors of the Storm Spotters that you see today.

Storm Spotters play a vital part in the NWS storm warning process by providing “ground truth” to confirm what the meteorologists are seeing on radar and in some cases spotting severe storm activity when the radar shows nothing overly unusual.
Radar, for its tremendous capabilities is blind to ground level activity beyond the radio horizon. Meteorologists can see a suspicious storm, but what is really happening beneath that storm?

Many situations can affect and limit radar capability.

For instance radar returns can be blocked or shadowed by physical obstructions.

If one looks at Birmingham Nexrad you may occasionally see a blank area or spike on the radar display extending to the Northeast of the radar site at close to a 40 degree radial.

According to a 2014 NBC13 report, there is a company in Calera, Lhoist North America, which is a major supplier of lime, limestone and clay products. It reportedly began a stockpile mound or dump near the Waterford community and it grew and it kept growing, and growing and growing, until it has grown tall enough to interfere with the NWS radar.

Other Nexrad sites have similar shadowing due to buildings and close mountain ranges. Each site has its own quirks and peculiarities.

Physical distance is another major factor.

The farther the radar is from the storm, the higher the radar beam, which travels in a straight line, strikes the storm. The radar in Calera for instance, may show a line of very heavy thunderstorms on the Alabama – Mississippi line, and as the line grows closer to the radar site the radar shows less and less precipitation, the line passes over with nothing remarkable happening and then as it passes farther from the radar site it begins looking just as ominous as it approaches the Georgia line as it did when exiting Mississippi, as the radar is once again scanning the midlevel of the storms

Did the storm really die down and then pulse back up? Depending on the time of day and other factors, sometimes yes. Or it may be the precipitation at the midlevel of the storm was much heavier than the lower levels which by the time it reached ground level had largely evaporated.

This is why meteorologists look at radar returns from other radar sites and at different angles for a more accurate idea as to what is really going on.

There is a saying that “the best radar is the closest radar”. But, some areas have no close radar to switch to. For instance in Southwest Alabama an area generally around Choctaw, Clarke and Marengo county is covered by radar from Birmingham, Columbus, Jackson and Mobile. But, none of them are close enough to show what is happening near the ground. It is a low level blind spot.

This is why having eyes on the ground is vital. By actually seeing what is occurring and reporting this to the NWS it increases warning lead time, which is potentially lifesaving.

Storm Spotters may observe from their homes or workplace. They may report as they are travelling to or from work. In some cases they may preposition themselves to get a better DISTANT view of the storm to describe the storm structure.

But, Storm Spotters DO NOT CHASE storms.

There is a difference between storm spotting, which helps the NWS mission and amateur storm chasing, which does not.

The NWS offices regularly train Storm Spotters in classes, both in person and online.

They do NOT train, certify, encourage or endorse storm chasing and do not want their name associated with amateur storm chasers, their actions or the consequences of those actions.
Storm chasing in the Southeast is extremely difficult as compared to the Midwest, where roads are straighter, horizons are not obstructed by trees and the population density is much more spread out.

If you try to chase a storm in Alabama, you can easily wreck your or someone else’s car, strike someone or since you literally can’t see the storm for the trees, can easily misjudge and be at the wrong place at the right time.

I know this from personal experience, and after having light wires arcing and snapping above me and me hiding behind a building wondering if the aluminum siding being torn off would decapitate me, I never vowed never to be such a dimwit again.

Also, I had to pray about it a little, for when young teenage Mark told his mother “I want to be a ham operator” she said “that’s fine as long as you promise to never go chasing a tornado”, to which I agreed. I wasn’t lying…well, maybe I was, I don’t know. At any rate I quit doing it 16 years ago.

Keep in mind that most Alabama tornadoes, unlike the Midwest variety, are rain wrapped and obscured.

The Tuscaloosa portion of the April 27, 2011 EF4 Tuscaloosa/Jefferson County tornado was unique in that it was not rain wrapped as it tore through that area. Horrible as it was, it was also strangely picturesque. By the time it reached the Birmingham suburbs, it was an ugly rain wrapped mass of clouds.

Perhaps this is why even though the tornado was shown live nationwide as it swept through Jefferson County; Jefferson County is seldom mentioned when retrospectives are shown. I watched an entire network program concerning the April 27 tornadoes and watched as they discussed in detail Tuscaloosa and its recovery and I waited for them to move on to the Jefferson County devastation and recovery. They rolled the credits instead. It is as if they thought the storm dissipated, when in fact it continued wreaking havoc flattening communities for miles beyond.

If you choose to chase storms, it’s on your own responsibility. Again do not associate the NWS name with your actions or their consequences.

They don’t need people plastering “Official NWS Storm Chase Vehicle” on their light bar equipped, porcupine looking SUV, or folk bragging online “Certified NWS storm chaser here”. As there is no such animal, and it puts the NWS’s reputation and credibility in jeopardy.

And, if you tell the news media “I’m a NWS certified Storm Chaser”, they know better, and your credibility with them just went down the tubes.

On a related note, there is a trend in some areas, very isolated I hope, of EMCOMM groups sporting shiny badges and “security” type uniforms.

While I certainly see nothing wrong with a group having unique team clothing, when it looks “official” or “police like”, as if they have some sort of authority, it sends the wrong message and can cause confusion and harm.

In the past, and I’ve been in this a long time, I have encountered and dealt with a few EMCOMM folk who tried to exercise authority they did not have and them in ordinary clothes. Let them try it with a badge and uniform and it could easily damage trust, confidence and relationships between organizations that have taken years, if not decades to build. Sometimes it doesn’t very much for this to happen, either.

Or, perhaps even worse, people might think they really ARE Security Officers and expect them to act in that capacity, since they appear to be wearing the uniform. “’Security Officer stands by while looters fight over silver urn’. ‘I told the security guard over there that they were taking Gramma’s ashes and he just stood there mumbling about ham and radio. Guess he was too busy thinking about ham sandwiches to be bothered to help us.’ ‘More details to follow on WKRP Action News.’”

This isn’t far a fetched idea either. I could tell you some stories.

This is why we really don’t need “Sergeant Skywarns” running around wreaking havoc any more than the NWS needs “official storm chasers” doing so. The NWS needs storm spotters to report storms and ALERT needs operators to take those storm spotters reports.

When the fall sessions resume consider attending an NWS storm spotter class near you and become a Skywarn Storm Spotter.

For information on Alabama County Warning Area training and classes see:

Birmingham https://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule
Mobile https://www.weather.gov/mob/skywarn
Huntsville https://www.weather.gov/hun/skywarn
Tallahassee https://www.weather.gov/tae/taeskywarn

For the current Birmingham’s presentations see:

https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/BasicSpotterGSAT.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/bmx/skywarn/Gerald_Satterwhite_Advanced_WEBPAGE.pdf

I also invite you to attend the next ALERT meeting and learn about who we are and what we do.

Are you willing to step up to the challenge and be a part of the action?

The NWS and ALERT needs YOU!

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Is Two Meters In Jeopardy?

Currently on Ham Radio social media groups there is an outcry due to a French proposal at the recent World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 (WRC-23) held in Prague, Czech Republic, to reassign the 144 to 146 MHz Amateur Band as a primary Aeronautical Mobile Service allocation in ITU Region 1 which covers Africa and Europe.

Of the countries represented only Germany voiced opposition.

The International Amateur Radio Union (IARU), which was represented at the Prague meeting, expressed “grave concern” to any proposal that would include 144 – 146 MHz in the proposed Aeronautical Mobile Services agenda item.

Currently the 144 – 146 MHz band is allocated globally to the Amateur and Amateur Satellite services on a primary basis, and is the only globally harmonized Amateur Radio VHF band. Other bands are shared or may be included in only certain ITU regions. For instance there is a 4 Meter Amateur radio allocation in ITU Region 1, but, not ITU Region 2 where we are located. British Amateurs may use 70.0 to 70.5 MHz.

The proposal will be carried forward to the higher-level CEPT Conference Preparatory Group (CPG) meeting in August, and the IARU is expected to brief member-societies, requesting that they discuss the French proposal with their governments in advance of the August CEPT-CPG meeting.

What does this mean for the US 144 – 148 MHz band? Nothing, for right now, for it only covers Europe and Africa.

The potential problem that may arise in the future is that are entities in the US competing for spectrum space that may also eye the band and toy with the idea that since it is underused in the US they may try the same thing.

What can we do about this?

Well, the current knee jerk reaction of “let’s sign an online petition and let them know what we feel” is useless. The ITU Region 1 inhabitants really don’t care what ITU region 2 hams think. It’s like Lithuanian hams sending a petition to the FCC to reinstate code testing for American hams. It’s not their chunk of the globe to be worrying with and so they really don’t care what they may think.

If it were proposed in the US, hopefully it would raise a howl and protest. But, until then there is definitely something we can do to protect our spectrum.

What we can do is USE the frequencies we have. Whether you prefer SSB, CW, FM, Digital Modes, AM or Spark Gap, get on the air, use your equipment and quit carping that “ham radio is dying” and about newcomers not having to “pass test I did” and that “people don’t know squat anymore”. Encourage people, don’t discourage them. Mentor them. Be a force for good for heaven’s sake.

Throw your call out and talk to people. If you get no response try again at another time. Eventually you will get someone. Be friendly. Be approachable and inclusive. Don’t be an old Fuddy Duddy, talk to and encourage the new hams. Make them know they are welcomed.

From the 1980’s to 2000’s there was an informal group affectionately called the “Nut Net”. It was not really a net, as such, it was just an online haunt of operators young and the young at heart that would get on, talking to each other, carrying on and aggravating each other in friendly ways and just plain having fun.

The Old Fudds hated us, threatened to “turn you over to the FCC”, “did you know the repeater owner has a tape of every QSO on here”, etc, etc. Which I wish was true, so I could listen to those days. Thing is, we weren’t doing anything wrong, morally or legally. We were just having fun, as opposed to discussing politics, carbuncles and the general sorry state of things, especially “these new hams, the bunch of CBers, they all are.”

We were young, and we acted like it. The Nuts of The Nut Net eventually became BARC, SCARC and ALERT Presidents and Officers.

So, as an official alumnus of the Nut Net, I recommend folk get on the air, started it again, and have some fun. If old goats complain, let them. They are going to anyway, so why not ham it up?!

Maybe it will spread and start a nationwide trend and in doing so, help preserve our RF haunts and stomping grounds. If nothing else, you will have fun!

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

From 1851 to 2018 there have been 120 Tropical Storms and 57 Hurricanes, 25 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, Mercury is fading into the sunset. He will fade from magnitude 0.8 at the beginning of the month from magnitude to 1.5 on July 6. He will then pass from view crossing between the Earth and Sun at “Inferior Conjunction” on July 21.

Venus is very low in the bright dawn, just above the east-northeast horizon about 20 or 30 minutes before sunrise.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 4, when she will be 94.5 million miles from our home star.

Mars (magnitude 1.8 in Capricornus) is low in the west-northwest as twilight fades.

Jupiter (magnitude –2.6, in southern Ophiuchus) is the white point glaring in the south-southeast as the stars come out. Jupiter is highest in the south by about 11 or midnight, with the red star Antares to his lower right.

Saturn (magnitude +0.1, in Sagittarius) is the steady, pale yellowish “star” low in the southeast after dark

The ringed planet will be at its closest approach to Earth, or “Opposition” on July 9. His face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. It will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long. A medium-sized or larger telescope will allow you to see Saturn’s rings and a few of its brightest moons.

Saturn will pass just north of the Moon on July 16 at 8:27 PM.

Uranus (magnitude 5.8, in Aries) is low in the east just before the first sign of dawn.

Neptune (magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius) is well up in the southeast before dawn.

New Moon will occur 2:16 PM CDT July 2 or 19:16 UTC July 2. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

On July 2 there will be a Total Solar Eclipse visible in parts of the Southern Pacific Ocean, central Chile, and central Argentina.

The Moon will pass just North of the Beehive Star Cluster at 4:02 AM CDT or 9:02 UTC, July 4.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 4, when she will be 226,010 miles from Earth.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 16 at 4:38 PM CDT or 21:38 UTC and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

On July 16 there will be a Partial Lunar Eclipse. A partial lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth’s partial shadow, or penumbra, and only a portion of it passes through the darkest shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse a part of the Moon will darken as it moves through the Earth’s shadow. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of Europe, Africa, central Asia, and the Indian Ocean.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 20, when she will be 251,953 miles from Earth,

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The waning crescent moon will not be too much of a problem this year. The skies should be dark enough for what could be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

4009 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 27, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

By the way…

On June 22nd at 21:25 UTC or 4:25 PM CDT, a small asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere and exploded south of Puerto Rico. Airwaves recorded by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s infrasound station in Bermuda recorded the energy of the blast as being between 3 and 5 kilotons of TNT. The explosion was captured as a bright flash by the GOES-16 weather satellite.

This event reminded me of another, much larger event called the Tunguska Event.

111 years ago at 7:15 local time on the morning of June 30, 1908, something happened in the skies above the Stony Tunguska River in Siberia.

Within a 900 mile radius, thousands observed a fireball in the sky, similar to, if not larger than the size of the Sun, and a series of explosions “with a frightful sound”, followed by shaking of the ground as “the earth seemed to get opened wide and everything would fall in the abyss.”

Various meteorological stations in Europe recorded both seismic and atmospheric waves, and for days later strange phenomena were observed in the skies of Russia and Europe, such as glowing clouds, colorful sunsets and a strange luminescence in the night.

Russian newspapers reported a supposed meteorite impact. International newspapers speculated about a possible volcanic explosion, as similar strange luminous effects were observed also after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.

Due to the inaccessibility of the region and Russia’s unstable political situation at that time, it wasn’t until March of 1927 that researchers were able to examine the area located at 60°55′N 101°57′E. They found a large area covered with rotting logs. A huge explosion apparently flattened more than 80 million trees across 820 square miles. Only at the epicenter of the explosion, in the “Forest of Tunguska”, so called “telegraph pole trees” were still standing, with all branches and the bark burned off.

If anyone had been living in the area at that time the shockwave, or blast overpressure would have killed them either due to debris impacts or damage to hollow organs such as auditory, respiratory, and gastrointestinal systems.

Even today, there is no definite explanation for what caused the explosions.

The leading theory is that a meteorite hit the area or more probably that an asteroid or comet of low density, and a diameter of between 100 to 250 feet exploded at a height of 4 to 9 miles above ground creating a nuclear type airburst and for this reason there is no impact crater.

Other nifty theories are:

A black hole hit the Earth
A chunk of antimatter hit the Earth
Radio pioneer Nikola Tesla tested a “death ray”
A UFO crashed (those darned Klingons)

Whatever caused it, it explains why I we built that underground bunker built under the house.

(But, don’t tell anyone)
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This month’s meeting will be on July 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The results of our May ALERT elections are in and I wish to welcome our new leaders as they lead ALERT into the future.

President: Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX
Johnnie is active in the amateur radio emergency communication serving as Jefferson County Emergency Coordinator for ARES, Latter Day Saints Emergency Coordinator, Vice-President of the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association and very active with the Healthcare Amateur Radio Club.

Vice President: Peter Shaw, KX4LB
Peter is active in amateur radio, disaster recovery and preparation, part of the health care community, and active with call-outs and weather nets.

Treasurer & Membership: Bill Rodgers, K4FSO
Bill sets up amateur radio demonstrations in schools, allowing middle school students talk to astronauts on the International Space Station, among other projects.

Secretary: Justin Glass, N0ZO
Justin is a Volunteer Examiner for Laurel VEC, administering free amateur radio license exams, with Central AL ARC.

NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas, KV4S
Russell, one of our longest term members, has brought us much greater digital amateur radio integration, bridging modes such as DMR, Echolink, AllStar, D-Star (XRF), in an effort to make it easier for areas not reachable via VHF/UHF to connect with ALERT and the NWS.

A special thanks should be given to our outgoing President, Casey Benefield, NZ20. He and Russell have brought ALERT into the digital age, helping keep ALERT relevant in the rapidly evolving Amateur Radio Emergency Communication world. One of the major accomplishments of Casey’s terms of office is opening a dialogue our counterparts at NWS Mobile – the Rural Radio Preparedness Association. This opens tremendous possibilities for Amateur Radio communications and the NWS mission of saving lives.

ALERT is alive and well!

Our Newsletter will continue as it has, and I invite your ideas and articles!

In this month’s newsletter will present our annual review tropical weather as we enter the hurricane season.

I hope you enjoy!

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms, of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, Colorado State University predicts 13 named storms, 5 of which could become hurricanes this year and 3 storms may reach Category 3 or stronger.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really how many storms actually do form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.

3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

https://www.hurricanezone.net/ – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/
and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving, can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 16 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Felix, which took just 51 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Let’s Nerd It Up!

In last month’s article “Zone Assessment For Emergency Preparedness And Mitigation”, I, as is normally the case, reviewed the article and deleted anything that could be offensive, get me or ALERT sued, tarred and feathered or seems too nerdy, verbose or out totally disconnected with ALERT’s purpose or mission.

Most omissions are simply to cut down on newsletter size, as I can have a tendency to “run on”,

In talking with a dear friend and loyal reader, I mentioned some of what I left out of the article, as it seem too nerdy, and it was suggested that perhaps the nerdiness would have been a worthy addition to the piece.

Ever wanting to please our audience, beginning where I left off, here are those missing gems!

“I know home is on a 220 degree compass bearing if I had to hike overland through areas where all normal landmarks have been obliterated.

However, I would not head on a direct compass heading. There are several reasons for this.

One reason is that unless one has the destination in sight, if one heads directly towards a distant object chances are excellent, due to avoiding obstacles and other factors, that you will miss the target either to the right or to the left. Which way do you turn?

A second reason for not taking a direct route is that without a visible target; even under perfect conditions no human can walk a straight line over a long distance. Even if your compass heading is correct, there is a tendency to gradually drift sideways, which is how people end up walking in circles.

Humans will drift to the right if right handed and left if left handed, a phenomena known as “lateral drift”.

By deliberately introducing a predictable error, in this case heading on a slightly more Northerly course of 245 degrees, to the right, you can eliminate one wrong direction, since you purposely veered to the right, you will know that your target is to the left of you.

This is actually using an old, almost forgotten, navigation technique of the pioneers, called “Off Aiming”.

Using the old pioneer methods I would use a “Baseline”, “Handrail” and “Backstop”.

A “Baseline” is a feature or landmark you identify to mark your starting point in case you have to reverse course and head back.

I work on Red Mountain which would be my “Baseline”. Red Mountain is a hard feature to miss.

Any road I could use to go in the desired direction I would use as a “Handrail”, or an easy path in the desired direction. When I reached Green Springs, I’m on target, and will turn left, which is South. If I reach I-65, my “Backstop” or a prominent landmark which lies beyond my target, I woul know that I have overshot, and would backtrack on a reverse course until I reached Green Springs again and then I would turn right towards the South.

Another factor, if it were a very long distance, is “magnetic declination”, which is where the magnetic North on a compass and the geographic North on a map do not match, since the poles are not located at the same location. The geographic pole is at the center of the Earth’s axis of rotation, the Magnetic North is in Arctic Ocean North of Canada.

In the Birmingham area all magnetic compasses are off 3.34 degrees to the West. So you set the compass North a little over 3 degrees to the East to get true North. In cases of small areal coverage this doesn’t matter, over long distances it would, as the effect of the error magnifies with increasing distance.

This magnetic declination error is increasing over time as the magnetic pole is shifting North Westward due to “Polar Drift”.

The Earth has a molten iron core. Variations in the flow of the molten iron in the outer core cause changes in the orientation of Earth’s magnetic field, and the position of the magnetic north and south poles.

The pole drifts considerably each day, and since 2007 it moves about 34 to 37 miles per year towards Asiatic Russia as a result of this phenomenon.

For reasons not fully understood this drift is increasing.

With all this said one might ask “why not just use a GPS or phone app?”

That’s exactly what I would do – if they work. If they don’t, I already have my backup plan.”

So there you go. With these gems and nuggets of wisdom you have now been officially nerded up.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month Mercury is hidden deep in the sunset. He will emerge into the evening sky passing very close to Mars on June 18.

On June 23 Mercury will be at “Mercury at Greatest Eastern Elongation” or his highest point above the horizon 25.2 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

Brilliant Venus, magnitude -3.9, is buried very low in bright dawn. About 15 or 20 minutes before sunrise, scan for it with binoculars a little above the east to east-northeast horizon.

Mars, magnitude +1.7 near the feet of Gemini, is low in the west during and shortly after dusk.

Mars will pass just North of the Moon on June 5.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.6 in the eastern leg of Ophiuchus, The Serpent Bearer, rises in the southeast in late twilight. He shines highest in the south around 2 AM.

On June 10 Jupiter will be at “Opposition” or its closest approach to Earth and its face will be fully illuminated by the Sun. He will be brighter than any other time of the year and will be visible all night long.

This is the best time to view and photograph Jupiter and its moons. A medium-sized telescope should be able to show you some of the details in Jupiter’s cloud bands. A good pair of binoculars should allow you to see Jupiter’s four largest moons, Io, Europa, Callisto and Ganymede, appearing as bright dots on either side of the planet. Each night their positions will shift as they continue a waltz that has been going on for millennia uncounted.

On June 16 Jupiter will pass just to the South of the Moon.

Saturn, magnitude +0.3, in Sagittarius, rises around 11 or midnight. In the hours before dawn, He is the steady, pale yellowish “star” about 30° or three fists at arm’s length left of Jupiter.

Saturn will pass very close to Moon on June 18.

Uranus is hidden in the glow of the dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius, is low in the east-southeast before the beginning of dawn.

New Moon will occur June 3 at 5:02 AM CDT or 10:02 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 7 at a distance of 228980 Miles.

Also on June 7, he Moon will pass very close, 0.2° of the Beehive Star Cluster or Praesepe, also known as Messier 44, a naked eye open star cluster in the constellation Cancer at 2:19 AM CDT.

Don’t ask me how to pronounce Praesepe. I’ve been trying to figure that one out for 50 years.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 17 at 3:31 AM CDT or 8:31 UTC June 28. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

Summer Solstice will occur at 10:54 AM CDT or 10:54 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 22 at a distance of 251375 Miles.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

The Moon, being two days after Last Quarter will not pose a major problem.

3970 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 16, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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The Atlanta Hamfest scheduled for Saturday, June 1 has been cancelled, due to the venue not being ready. They will return in 2020.

Helena Hamfest will be Friday, June 14th from 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM & Saturday, June 15th from 8:30 AM to 3:00 PM at the Helena Community Center, 100 Sports Complex Drive, Helena AL 35080.

Huntsville Hamfest will be Saturday, August 18 from 9:00 AM to 4:30 PM & Sunday, August 18 from 9:00 AM to 3:00 PM at the Von Braun Civic Center South Hall, 700 Monroe St SW, Huntsville AL 35801.

Montgomery Hamfest will be Saturday, November 9 at the Alcazar Shrine Temple, 555 Eastern Boulevard, Montgomery, AL 36101

This month’s ALERT meeting will be on June 11 at 7 PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Comments, articles and suggestions are welcome.
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
https://weatherlynx.webs.com/

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The sunny weather we are seeing deceptively distracts from the fact that Alabama is still in the midst of a severe tornado season.

As of April 25 Alabama has been struck by 53 tornadoes, causing 23 fatalities and 198 injuries.

The 53 tornadoes make 2019 13th in the number of annual tornadoes since 1950.

53 tornadoes before the end of April ranks second behind the all-time totals of 2011.

Though the Midwest storms of the last couple of days may change things, Alabama, as of April 29, is currently second nationwide in tornadoes, with Mississippi leading with 75 tornadoes.

As our season continues through May remember not to let your guard down, as our threat is far from over.

Be ready for more callouts to come.

Our next ALERT meeting will occur May 14.

I hope to see you there!

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Reminder on ALERT Operations Current Practice:

(Subject to change – times are changing!)

1. ALERT does not run nets from K4NWS, but we do follow the storms to different repeaters.
2. We are roaming operators, so we are not guaranteed to be on a specific repeater, and we may secure from a given analog repeater at any time. We may be on your repeater, but we may also be silent/not talking unless necessary.
3. We work with existing weather nets, where they exist, and follow directions/guidance from any club/ARES/Skywarn net control on the local net, if present.

Places that we can definitely be reached:

1. Internet: We monitor BMXSpotterChat in case of any reports from non-ham radio spotters, OR the ALERT Facebook page for reports from social media followers. We can relay information direct to NWS via NWSchat.
2. Digital Ham Radio: We monitor D-Star XRF334C (accessible by Peanut software also), 31013 on DMR (ALERT DMR), Yaesu Fusion ALERT-K4NWS 41300, Echolink and more.
   **DMR/D-STAR(XLX) / YSF / AllStar / EchoLink / HamShackHotline are bridged together.
   https://alert-alabama.org/blog/?page_id=1736
3. If someone is physically at K4NWS, we use REF058B on the local D-Star repeater KI4SBB or K4DSO.

Casey Benefield – NZ2O

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New/Draft D-Star REF058B – Multi-User Ops Procedure

In ALERT/K4NWS’s last callout activation 4/14/2019, K4NWS was joined on the D-Star reflector 058B by the NWS Mobile, AL Skywarn group – Rural Radio Preparedness. We’re happy to hear another Skywarn group coming back up to speed.

There were a few questions after the event from Birmingham operators/spotters. After discussing with RRPA, we feel we have a good plan for directing spotter report traffic to the appropriate NWS station.

If you’re a Skywarn spotter or NWS Station Operator, here is how K4NWS would operate when sharing digital:

Operating Digital with Multiple Served Agencies

Foreword:

The following is written as a memo of understanding, to inform storm spotters and other NWS Skywarn groups on how ALERT/K4NWS will operate when in a situation where there is more than one served agency on frequency.

Skywarn/ARES Storm Spotters:

No significant operational change for storm spotters.

Storm spotters may make storm reports on the reflector as they always have, by calling either KBMX/Birmingham NWS via K4NWS or KMOB/Mobile NWS, prior to giving your storm spotter report. This keeps it clear which office the report was intended for.

Generally, REF058B does not go into a true directed net status. In the rare event that REF058B is activated into directed net by any other group, a KBMX/K4NWS area storm spotter may request direct contact with K4NWS from the acting net control, with priority, at any time. *Keep in mind, emergency traffic comes before priority traffic. As with any directed net, please follow net control’s guidance and directions.

The Procedure for K4NWS Operators:

When multiple NWS/Skywarn groups are on the same D-Star reflector, the ALERT operator representing K4NWS will recognize other NWS partner stations by their tactical callsign(s), if they do not have an official club call for the station.

Skywarn for Mobile NWS will identify themselves as KMOB or Mobile NWS.
ALERT (Skywarn) for Birmingham NWS will identify as “K4NWS Birmingham.”
Other NWS offices may likewise choose to identify with tactical callsigns.

A station operator with either group may need to occasionally remind operators that it is a statewide reflector. Example: “Multiple NWS stations are currently available on this reflector in Alabama, and listening for storm spotter reports as priority traffic, for each area.”

*NOTE: When using tactical callsigns, the stations who are doing so must additionally identify themselves with the callsign of the control operator present, in accordance with applicable FCC Part 97 regulations, at the start/end of communication and every 10 minutes during continuous operations.

Nets on REF058B

Generally, REF058B does not become called into an active / directed net status during severe weather.

In the unlikely event that REF058B is called into an actual active net status by another group, K4NWS should act as a served agency liaison, and proactively report to net control that we are here for receiving any reports for NWS Birmingham’s area. Much like we would participate in county nets, we would participate in any other net.

Note: This is subject to change, based on feedback from our partner NWS offices, Skywarn groups, storm spotters, reflector users, and K4NWS members.

We appreciate the work that our other regional and county Skywarn groups, such as RRPA and NALSW – North Alabama Skywarn with KHUN NWS Huntsville. Thank you all for your continued partnership as we all work toward the mission of the National Weather Service: Protect life and property.

Casey Benefield – NZ2O

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Zone Assessment For Emergency Preparedness And Mitigation

In preparing for possible emergencies having a well thought out organized approach or methodology proves much more effective than a haphazard hit and miss “I got my kit” approach.

All too often people will make a cursory effort at preparation, maybe reading an article or two, buying a few items and then putting them away in a closet for “when” and then never taking them out, testing them or remaining up to date in their emergency preparedness training.

Knowledge and preparations are both perishable commodities. Knowledge fades, equipment deteriorates as items either go out of date or corrode. Then just when you need them the most you can find that the “security blanket” that gave you comfort is as worthless as wet leaves.

While you don’t want to be a morbid “Gloomy Gus”, you want to make emergency preparedness a priority, and in fact a way of life.

You want to study and learn and then apply that knowledge to your own individual lives and circumstances in an organized fashion for maximum effect.

One example of an organized approach is the “Zone Assessment” concept.

In doing a Zone Assessment you divide your corner of the world in “Zones” or concentric circles in ever increasing size or range, giving you five Zones:

Zone I – Personal / Physical
Zone II – House / Property
Zone III – Local / Neighborhood
Zone IV –State / Region
Zone V – National / International

Let’s see how this works.

ZONE I – PERSONAL / PHYSICAL

To paraphrase an old song, “I just dropped in to see what condition your condition is in”.

As with any activity in life, the starting point in emergency preparedness starts with YOU.

How are you physically?

Many people have no clue of what their true physical condition is because they are simply afraid to go to a doctor fearing “they will find something wrong.”

Well, it’s not a math quiz. If there is something wrong with you, you want to know this, for, knowing this and treating or correcting the condition might give you many good years ahead, while not knowing you have a condition, or ignoring a known condition can be a time bomb waiting to go off at any time.

For example, I have high blood pressure. Ignoring it will leave me vulnerable to a stroke, but, it is being treated, so my risk is much less than it would be otherwise.

Get a physical, if you have a problem, treat it, and as the pointy eared gentleman said “live long and prosper.”

Been to a dentist lately? If not, and if you still have chompers to worry about, you want to do so. For having a rotting tooth deciding to abscess during the aftermath of a tornado is not a good thing.

How physically fit are you?

Before I begin, I’ll be the first to admit that at 61 I will never be confused with an Olympic Gymnast.

People in the world of preparing have a tendency to overestimate their self-image of strength and endurance, preparing packs of equipment they are sure they can carry 25 miles, while nearly passing out just going from the sofa to the toilet.

Very few preparedness and survival books cover this subject and I am by no means an expert, but, assuming you are physically cleared by a doctor, which you should have done first, and are physically able to do so, try to get in as decent a shape as you can get in. For in an emergency you may need to lift debris, walk long distances or otherwise extend yourself far beyond your normal levels.

Some may opt to go to gyms for a supervised gung ho workout, which is perfectly fine. I can do it once, full bore, feel macho and then not be able to move for three days. I know this for I have
done this, proving that the song “I’m not as good as I once was, but, I’m good once as I ever was” is loaded with truth.

For me, doing a heavy workout after a full day of work is not wise, as I am tired and more prone to injuring myself, and timewise it is not possible anyway. Doing one before work leaves me worn out with a full workday ahead and everyone thinking I’m mad or sad, since I’m not my chipper self. Plus I have a condition called RBF, which basically means if I’m not grinning like a possum I look like I’m heading toward the gallows – no matter how happy and good I may feel.

So what can I do? Do what I can do.

Ignoring a book that seem to assume you are already a Navy SEAL, and picking the one that starts slowly and steadily increases your activity, I start by stretching out, running in place, increasing the time with time, and working with some weights, light at first and adding little things that others try to omit. Such as taking the stairs, parking at a safe distance and walking that distance, arguing “no thanks I don’t need help with my groceries, thank you” as I wrestle the cart away and pass the 20 year olds that have 65 year old baggers pushing their buggies to the car, and just trying to act consistently active.

Then when a setback occurs, such as illness or a time crunch, and I have to quit, I just either pick up where I left off, or start over again.

Can I run a marathon? No. But, I can probably hike you out of your shoes. Not the easy trail either.

Keep your mind active. Long ago I read that after graduation 50 percent of the American population never read another book and only 20 percent read more than one. That is sad.

Read. Exercise that mushy brain, for it needs a workout also.

Take time for you. Try not to get in ruts, or become an “appliance”, which is someone who somehow ends up doing everything and it just becomes an expectation from folk that you will keep doing so, without them considering that maybe you would like to do a few things and have “me time” also.

This can kill you both emotionally and physically.

Don’t neglect yourself spiritually also. Whether you are a person of faith or believe it is all hogwash we are spiritual creatures.

Many times leaning on “a power that is higher than I” has given people the hope, will and drive to go on when every circumstance shouted it “hopeless”.

I am a Christian. Perfect? Are you kidding? But I have seen times in life when it was all that kept me believing things would be ok.

Another aspect of the human spirit is you have around you. If you are surrounded by negative, critical people, you will become the same way, and that will damage or kill your survivability. For if you expect nothing but doom and disappointment, a completely survivable situation may become unsurvivable.

You need a balanced life – physically, mentally and spiritually.

That way you can deal with the emergencies should they arrive, and help others also.

Zone II – HOUSE / PROPERY

Here is a quick list of things to ask yourself.

Do you have a NOAA weatheradio?
Does your house have smoke and CO2 detectors?
Do you have a fire extinguisher and has it been checked recently or ever?
Do you have an escape plan for if there is a fire?
Do you have a sheltered area should a tornado threatens your home?
Do you know how to shut off the gas and water?
Do you have a list of emergency numbers posted so you won’t lose time looking for a phone book?

Emergency numbers to include are:
Police Precinct number (911 has been known to fail)
Fire Department Direct Number
Power Company
Phone Company
Gas Company
Water Company
Primary Care Physician
Pharmacy
Poison Control
Designated Family Contact
NWS Emergency Number 1-800-856-0758

Just as with people, every house has their strengths and weaknesses. For instance, a house that is well-built, but the roof leaks like a shower.

Learn the strengths of your house and property and capitalize on these. For example, use the strongest part of the house for your tornado shelter. Try to overcome, repair or compensate for the weaknesses you find.

One weakness that all homes are gaining is the push to have home phones tied to the internet. If you lose power your home telephone will die as soon as either the Wi-Fi router loses power or the UPS’s battery dies. If your cellphone battery dies or the cell tower is knocked out all you have left is RF. This is why we still keep the house phone “wired to the pole” – reliability for emergencies.

ZONE III – LOCAL / NEIGHBORHOOD

How well do you know your neighborhood, the area around your workplace and the route there and back?

One thing one should always do is to learn about your neighborhood, your workplace and their vicinity and its unique dangers, vulnerabilities and assets. Then if something happens you are already one step ahead in the game.

For example, the area in which I live has no flood threat, as it is on the side of a small hill. On the other hand I am very close to an Interstate and a main traffic artery. It is entirely possible that a tanker truck could wreck, release hazardous materials and endanger my neighborhood.

Once in my old neighborhood they were going to evacuate us at 3AM because a broken valve on a railroad tank car was venting anhydrous ammonia into the air.

Much more recently I was travelling to the doctor and found HWY 280 blocked as there had been a chemical accident at the Birmingham Water Works which had injured several people. People in the vicinity were told to shelter in place and the Brookwood Mall area had a distinct smell of chlorine in the air, prompting me to check the wind direction to see if the plume might be headed for my neighborhood a few miles down the road. If it was, though we had not been told to, we would have sheltered in place anyway.

So I know it CAN happen.

Add to this the ever-present tornado threat, a low-level earthquake threat and the ever-growing danger of unkind hooliganism, and I have a decent idea of what is possible and I should prepare for.

As for assets, in my immediate vicinity there is a fire station and two “doc in a box” clinics within walking range, a veterinarian, three drug stores, two grocery stores and there is a hospital three and one half miles away.

I also know the traffic access and choke points in case I have to make an emergency run.

The primary chokepoint is the entrance to my subdivision. If it becomes blocked for any reason, I am cut off, vehicle wise anyway from reaching or leaving my house.

The same is true at work. My workplace has one access road, lined by trees. If the trees are blown down blocking the road, we are cut off from emergency response. Until they can cut through the blockage we are on our own and if there were casualties I would have to use my CERT training to triage and treat those casualties.

I also learned all of the entrances, exits and good areas to “shelter in place” either for weather emergencies, fires or active shooters, as we live in an increasingly violent world, whether due to the possibility of former employees “going postal”, civil unrest or, the ever growing terrorist threat.

I have a “get home bag” and spare, non-conspicuous clothes in the car and locker and have mentally mapped out four possible routes to reach home from work and I know that all else failing, even my GPS, I know home is on a 220 degree compass bearing if I had to hike overland through areas where all normal landmarks have been obliterated.

Do know your neighbors?

When I was a child everyone knew each other, both good and bad, but, not so much so now.

It pays to get to know them. Even if it’s for just learning who to avoid, as not everyone is “nice”.

ZONE IV – STATE / REGION

Our primary state and regional vulnerabilities are tornado outbreaks, inland hurricanes and for North Alabama an earthquake risk from the New Madrid Fault in Missouri.

Tornados, whether from isolated supercells or from major tornado outbreaks like April 27, 2011 are all too familiar to us and aren’t going away.

Inland hurricanes can produce severe wind damage as Opal did in 1995, a tornado outbreak as Rita did when a single feeder band dropped 21 tornados in 2005 and intense flooding.

We don’t think about earthquakes much. But, from 1886 to March 2019 Alabama has had 374 earthquakes.

I’ve slept through each and every one that has occurred in my lifetime.

Between 1811 and 1812 a series of earthquakes near New Madrid Missouri occurred, estimated to be between Magnitude 7.0 – 8.0. It is believed that the question isn’t whether this event will be repeated, but, when.

If and when it does occur it will cause damage in Alabama.

A 2009 study estimated that a 7.7-magnitude New Madrid event could cause $1 billion in damages to roads and bridges in Alabama, hundreds of miles away from the epicenter.

One simulation showed Birmingham having Magnitude 6.0 earthquake damage.

My house would definitely have damage. What about yours?

Oh, at the risk causing bread and milk riot, should I even think of whispering “snow”?

No, I don’t think so either

If you haven’t already, you should get storm spotter training, have a NOAA weather radio and multiple warning sources, including news apps on your phones. I get notifications from INWS – Interactive NWS https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/ As an ALERT member you are considered a “core partner (emergency management community, government partners of an NWS office” and qualify to sign up for these alerts.

I also subscribe to Baron Weather’s Alabama SAF-T-NET, which gives notifications of potentially severe storms about to strike my neighborhood or workplace. https://www.baronweather.com/alabamasaftnet/

If you are a Ham Radio Operator get involved with ALERT, SKYWARN, ARES and your local Ham Clubs.

For more information on earthquake preparation go to https://www.shakeout.org/centralus/alabama/

ZONE V – NATIONAL / INTERNATIONAL

One of the earliest memories I have was a bright and sunny October day when I was 4 years old playing in the back yard and hearing a strange noise in the sky. Looking up I saw a pretty formation of eight planes high overhead. I thought it was the neatest thing I had ever seen.

In those days little kids weren’t expected to have knowledge and opinions on geopolitical happenings. We were only expected to be kids playing in the dirt. So this little kid did not know that he was seeing US Airforce strategic bombers, all loaded with thermonuclear weapons, being deployed to South Florida, as the US and the USSR were on the brink of nuclear war, an event now known as the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

The next time we drifted towards the brink was in 1973 when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel, and reports circulated that Soviet ships and troops were heading to Egypt. I remember my teacher coming in and saying “did you know we are on nuclear alert?”

The US vs USSR – back then this was the biggest threat to the United States and the worlds existence.

Though the threat somehow seems more distant, it is still very real. Plus now other international players have appeared on the scene.

Last year it seemed as if the US and North Korea were edging towards the brink. IF this had actually played out, and North Korea actually does have the capabilities they claim, Hawaii and the West Coast could have been targeted and inland areas downwind could have had to deal with the plumes of radioactive fallout.

A nuclear war between the US and Russia probably would not be a surprise attack, where Putin or Trump were having a bad day and just decided to “press the button”. Or at least I hope so.

Rather there would be a clear triggering incident that escalated, from shooting to heavy weaponry to tactical nuclear weapons to strategic nuclear weapons.

Some flash points would be a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe, Russia invading or “intervening” in the Middle East and advancing on Israel or the oil fields of the Persian Gulf, North Korea invading South Korea or attacking Japan, who the US is committed to defend.

Warning signs that things are more serious than usual saber rattling by leaders would include reports of the US fleet suddenly sortieing out of East Coast and Pacific naval bases. Reports of the Russian fleet sortieing out of their ports in Murmansk and Vladivostok. And, of course actual breakouts of fighting, either by NATO allies or direct fire between US and Russian forces.

That’s why having access to and keeping an eye on news sources is important. As this will let you know if things are about to become serious and not just tomcats hissing at each other.

Another nuclear threat is terrorists getting a nuclear device or constructing a “dirty bomb” designed to spread radioactive materials, or chemical weapons.

In a US vs Russia scenario Birmingham is a valid target due to it being an industrial center, a rail hub, having major highways intersecting and it being a population center, not including contamination from strikes on major Gulf Coast ports.

In a foreign terrorist scenario, they target “symbolic” targets, such as military, government and financial centers, and areas with large masses of people. So, Birmingham might not be a target rich environment in such a scenario. But, who can predict what a home grown nut will do?

Attacks do not have to be weapons of mass destruction. We all remember, or should at least September 11, 2001 when 2996 were killed in a well-planned and coordinated terrorist attack.

The threat of these types of attacks is just as real today as they were then. Terrorists, both infiltrated, imbedded, homegrown recruits and domestic could strike at any time. Whether it’s using vehicles as weapons, actual weaponry or psychological warfare designed to help them “divide and conquer” using the “A nation divided against itself cannot stand” principle, these threats are very real.

One should “be street wise”, being vigilant, with eyes and ears open, but, not acting like scared rabbits.

Well, now that I’ve cheered your lives, I will mention that there has never been a period in human history that there has not been threats, dangers and disasters.

What do you do?

Take reasonable precautions, keep your eyes open and go camping. In other words live life and have fun.

Mom once said “most of the things you worry about never happen anyway.”

But, Mom believed in being prepared also.

My parent’s generation survived a world-wide depression and world-wide war for national survival. Their generation canned and preserved, always has a stocked pantry, planted gardens and we’re hesitant to throw things out, as they valued things, knowing that might become scarce again. They were largely self-reliant.

Their children mockingly spoke of them hoarding, never throwing things out “after all they are the Depression Generation.”

Their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are watching tutorial videos, surfing websites and devouring books on how to can and preserve, build a stocked pantry, plant gardens and stockpile needed items that may become scarce during an emergncy. They are striving to be more self-reliant.

Though I don’t like the term “prepper” or “survivalist” as I don’t like pigeon holing and stereotyping, it has occurred to me that my parent’s generation we’re never “hoarders” at all. They were the first “preppers”.

As for me, I don’t call it “prepping”. I call it “stacking the deck in my favor.”

Hopefully this article will help you stack the deck in your favor also.

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2018 there have been 24 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2019 tropical season.

The forecast predicts 13 named tropical systems, with five of those systems becoming hurricanes. Of those storms, two are forecasted to become major hurricanes with winds at category 3 strength or higher.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

CSU says a currently weak El Nino will stay in place through the summer and fall. This will keep the average sea surface temperatures slightly below normal and the North Atlantic unusually cooler than usual. With cooler waters in place, tropical systems which need warmer water to gain strength will have trouble organizing and gaining strength.

The Atlantic Hurricane names for 2019 are: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

Hurricane names are recycled every 6 years, so this is the same list as used in 2013. The only change is Imelda, who replaces Ingrid, whose name was retired after devastating Northeastern Mexico in September 2013.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury, magnitude -0.3, is sinking very low in the brightening dawn. He will pass behind the Sun on May 21.

Venus, magnitude –3.9, is very low in the brightening dawn. Pick up Venus just above the due-east horizon about 20 minutes before sunrise.

Mars, magnitude +1.6 in Taurus, glows in the west during and after dusk, and is getting lower every week now. He is almost as far from Earth as he ever gets.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, at the eastern foot of Ophiuchus, rises in the southeast around 11 – Midnight, He shines highest in the south before dawn begins.

On May 20 he will pass just South of the Moon.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius. rises around 1 AM. As dawn begins, he is the “star” 27°, almost three fists at arm’s length, to bright Jupiter’s left.

On May 22 he will pass just South of the Moon.

Uranus is moving behind the Sun.

Neptune is still deep in the glow of sunrise.

New Moon will occur May 4 at 5:46 PM CDT or 22:46 UTC. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky This is the best time of the month to observe faint deep sky objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It is capable of producing up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but, most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 42 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The thin crescent moon will set early in the evening leaving dark skies for what should be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on May 13 at a distance of 229296 Miles.

Full Moon will occur May 18th at 5:11 PM CDT or 21:11 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

Since this is the third of four Full Moons in this season, it is known as a Blue Moon. This rare calendar event only happens once every few years, giving rise to the term, “once in a Blue Moon.” There are normally only three Full Moons in each season of the year. But since Full Moons occur every 29.53 days, occasionally a season will contain 4 Full Moons. The extra Full Moon of the season is known as a Blue Moon. Blue Moons occur on average once every 2.7 years.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 26 at a distance of 251117 Miles.

3944 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 18, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database