Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way towards the heat of Summer.

Recently I was looking through some things in the disaster zone, which is called my basement, which is always an adventure, and I found a couple of ALERT archeological artifacts that might prove interesting.

Not long ago I was asked “how long have you been a member of ALERT”?

The truth is, I don’t have a clue. But I have found some (tantalizing to me at least) hints.

While the original ALERT IDs had no picture. My mug was featured on the early ones that did.

Here two early ALERT ID badges with a younger, less wrinkled version of Mark in the “olden” days.

The pasty looking fellow on the left knows he was not a member before 2000 – 2001, and the handsome hunk of he-man ness on the left knows this the ID was issued in 2003. So, I figure I joined somewhere around 2002.

I’m not a Founding member of ALERT, Ron Arant N4PHP and Brian Peters WD4EPR, our life members, hold that honor, while Russel Thomas KV4S, Steven Moss KB4FKN and I hold the “Crusty Old Goat” ranking.
The current ID of course is different from these. When we resume in-person meetings, maybe in the Fall, hopefully by Winter or probably by Spring, if you are a current member and don’t have an ID badge, we will begin issuing them again then.

Now for money matters. The time has arrived for ALERT dues.

Join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so we will remain current active members

Since we can’t meet in person, I suggest visiting our blog at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf for information on where to send the dues and also for the form if you are not a member and would like to join.

Until we meet again, everyone stay safe!

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

State Of ALERT Leadership

In 2020 due to the COVID pandemic causing a suspension of meetings at the NWS per NOAA guidelines as well as the general disruption normal life that ensued, the usual ALERT election process became an impossibility so the ALERT Board of Directors voted to declare basically an operational State of Emergency and suspended the election processes until the time that the national emergency was resolved, normal life could resume, and the regular ALERT Constitutional processes could resume. Our President, Johnny Knobloch graciously agreed to remain at the helm of ALERT, which we truly appreciate.

During the June 2021 ALERT meeting the leadership status was discussed, and in view of the fact that we are still unable to hold physical meetings, form a Nominating Committee or hold in person elections, as require by the ALERT Bylaws, it was agreed that the current emergency provisions should continue until the COVID situation is resolved and we can then meet in person, formulate a “restart process” and resume normal activities.

Our President Johnny Knobloch has again agreed to remain as our leader and all ALERT leadership positions will remain in the current configuration.

I want to say a word of appreciation to Johnny for his commitment to ALERT. Being the President of ALERT or any other organization for that matter is not an easy task. Unless you have held the office you have no idea what he has to deal with and how he has to juggle this and the other responsibilities and positions he holds with other organizations.

So, I wanted to say on behave of ALERT, Johnny, we thank you!

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Radio Range Hype vs Reality

When one looks at various radios and advertisements you find amazing claims of radio range and performance. I have seen claims of 16 miles, 32 miles even 80 miles all with handheld radios, and all of this without use of a repeater.

The uninitiated see these advertisements and those of inexpensive amateur equipment and believe these claims.
In previous newsletters, particularly the February 2018, March 2019, and August 2019 issues I touched on the problem of preppers and others buying handheld ham radios without knowing or in some cases not caring in the least that a license is required and intending to bootleg to their hearts content. Or assuming that no special knowledge was necessary and that just yelling “help” somewhere, anywhere in the radio spectrum would magically conjure up some assistance – if they can figure how to power up the radio, since the batteries probably corroded long ago, with the poor radio being tucked in the bug out bag stuck in the back of the cobweb filled basement, behind those old toilet parts from 1973.

Some innocently use them in the ham bands as one would use an FRS, GMRS or MURS radio, not realizing that you need a license to use the ham bands, since not all advertisers bother to mention “license”, as that would deter sales.

Its something to watch for, certainly for me to gripe about, but, back on topic, despite all of the advertised claims, how far can a handheld radio actually reach?

The following is a decent representation that will give an idea of common normal day to day simplex range using the stock antenna that comes with the radio.

Average Range Guidelines Using Original Stock Antenna

Wattage Flat Open Terrain Suburban Areas Urban Areas Inside Buildings

FRS ½ – 2 watts ½ – 2 miles ½ – 1½ miles ¼ – ½ miles 3 – 5 floors
1 watt (UHF) 2 – 3 miles 1 – 2 miles ½ – 1¼ miles 6 – 8 floors
2 watts (UHF) 3 – 4 miles 1½ – 2½ miles 1 – 1½ miles 15 – 20 floors
2 watts (VHF) 3 – 5 miles 1½ – 3 miles ¾ – 1 miles 9 – 11 floors
4 watts (VHF) 5 – 6 miles 2½ – 4½ miles 1 – 3 miles 10 – 15 floors
4 watts (UHF) 4 – 6 miles 2½ – 4½ miles 1½ – 3 miles 25 – 30 floors
5 watts (VHF) 4½ – 6 miles 2 – 4 miles 1½ – 2 miles 10 – 15 floors
12 watt CB SSB (HF) 8 – 15 miles 5 – 8 miles 3 – 5 miles – —

Not listed is Mountaintop to Mountaintop range. I was able to reach Monsanto Mountain in Huntsville from the peak of Red Mountain in Birmingham, roughly 85 miles on 220 MHz one night.
So extreme range is possible, but not necessarily the norm.

Also, not included are the variables such as time of day or band openings.

Of course, range can be greatly expanded by using high gain external or beam antennae or just getting a better performing handheld antenna.

If you look at the inside of a rubber duck or built-in antenna on an “bubble pack radio” you will find it is just a coil. Sometimes tightly would, sometimes loosely wound. If it is detachable, you can replace it with a higher gain antenna, such as a Nagoya and the range certainly improves.

There are two dangers with doing this. I have seen after market antennas that were long enough to use for fencing and for putting someone’s eye out. That’s not good.

Secondly, the antenna mounts on HT’s are their weak points. Any torque or bending will snap the center conductor of the antenna connector off the circuit board and the repair ranges from torturous to impossible.

One solution is to make a coax jumper a foot or two long and some connectors and securely attach the cable to the body of the radio using tape or strong rubber bands, then you can connect any antenna you want. Though, it may not look pretty, but it will definitely work.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

You Gotchur Ears On?

A fellow ham friend asked me yesterday “have you noticed all the CB antennas popping up on cars lately? They don’t actually have a radio in the car, they just want that ‘70’s’ look.”

He is correct. That is a new fad going around. In fact, one guy at work who had bought a used police car asked if I had a broken antenna he could have “for the look.”. When I asked “why, are you planning on pulling folk over?” he was not amused.

Human beings love cultural revivals. They come in 20 year, broader 50 year and much broader, blurry & 100 year increments.

Here are some examples:

1960’s:

20 year revival – (1940s) – World War 2 movies abound
100 year revival – (1860 – 1870s) Gunsmoke and various other westerns

1970’s:

20 years – (1950s) – Happy Days, Laverne and Shirley, M.A.S.H.
50 years – (1920’s) – The Sting
100 years – (1870 – 1880s) – Clint Eastwood Westerns

1980s:

20 years – (1960s) – Magnum PI, though set in 1980’s frequent flashbacks to 1960s & Vietnam),
Dirty Dancing
50 years – (1930s) – Indian Jones’s adventures

So, as we wind our way through the 2020’s don’t be surprised when you see reminders of the Millennium, the turbulent 60’s and the events of the 1920’s.

I wonder how our version of the “Roaring Twentiees” will be portrayed in 2041, 2091 and 2121?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss must walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds
Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

From 1851 to 2020 there have been 128 Tropical Storms and 61 Hurricanes, 29 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Gemini.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude 1.8 in Taurus, is very low in the east-northeast as dawn brightens into day and continues to rise as the month progresses.

Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Gemini, is the non twinkling “star” in the low west-northwest during evening twilight.

On July 13 she will pass 0.5° north of Mars.

She will be the bright “Evening Star” of summer and fall.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Sagittarius

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 5, when she will be 94.5 million miles from our home star, as she and the Moon wobble through space, the Moon tugging on the Earth like an unruly pup on a leash.

Mars, magnitude 1.8, in Cancer the Crab, is closing in on Venus from the upper left.

Mars’s 687-day orbit around the Sun will carry it to his furthest point from the Sun, aphelion, on July 12.

Tiny Mars, nearly 200 times than Venus will be in conjunction with her, ½° apart, on July 12th and 13th.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.3, has moved into Aries, The Ram.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.6, in Aquarius and Saturn, magnitude +0.4, in Capricorn, rise in late evening: first Saturn, then brighter Jupiter about an hour later. They shine at their highest and telescopic best in the south before dawn.

Uranus, magnitude 5.9, in Aries, is low in the east before dawn dawns.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius, is well up in the southeast before dawn.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.3 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring, and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur July 1.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 5, when she will be 251,869 miles from Earth.

New Moon, when the Moon is located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. will occur July 9 at 8:17 PM or 1:17 UTC on July 10. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

First Quarter Moon will occur July 17, with the visible portion of the Moon pointing West.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 21, when she will be 226,502 miles from Earth.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 23 at 9:37 PM CDT or 2:37 UTC on July 24, when the Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated.
July’s Full Moon is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The Last Quarter moon will block many of the fainter meteors this year. But if you are patient, you should still be able to catch a few of the brighter ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur July 31.

During Last Quarter Moon the visible portion of the Moon points East, with the dividing line between the dark and light portions of the Moon, or “Terminator” pointing roughly North and South, which can be useful to remember for rough direction finding when out in the wilds.

4422 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 11, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on July 13 at 7PM

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds everyone well.

With publication of this edition of the newsletter, we reach the milestone 15 years of publication.

The original purpose of the newsletter was to keep everyone updated as to Alert’s activities, NWS news and concerns and to be a form of “friendly spam” reminding everyone that “ALERT is still here, alive and well.”

Though on occasions the content has sometimes been as scattered as the scatterbrained editor, it has kept true to its purpose.

This isn’t “Mark’s Newsletter”, by the way. It’s YOUR newsletter.

Your input, advice, and most certainly your articles are welcome and needed, as sometimes the wellspring of inspiration and creativity runs perilously dry.

As long as it is non-political, won’t get us or me sued, and is in keeping with the spirit and purpose of the newsletter, anything is welcome.

I look forward to your newsletter contributions.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm, which indeed happened with Subtropical Storm Ana, began issuing outlooks on May 15.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting above normal seasons.

This is due to warmer Atlantic Temperatures and the lack of El Nino conditions.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition, this is the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see, and it grows a little longer year by year.

The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.

3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 5:30PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

What harm was done? You might ask.

First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment will keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.

So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

https://www.hurricanezone.net/ – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website, which is slowly being updated, www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

For the most reliable information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.

The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.

Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.

Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources.

Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.

That includes my wise prognostications also.

Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that Queen Elizabeth is a shape shifting lizard lady. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the Queen, it is still yet unproven.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2021 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2021 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.

The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.

The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 5 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.

If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.

One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.

The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.

It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.

The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.

Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7

This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

What is the “D” storm for 2021? Danny, of course.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………

NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2020 there have been 95 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude 1.2 in Taurus slips below the western horizon.

On June 10 Mercury will pass between the Earth and the Sun or will be at “Inferior Conjunction”.

Venus, magnitude -3.9 on the Gemini-Taurus border, is low in the Northwest in the afterglow of sunset. Venus should be easy to spot if the sky there is clear.

Venus’s 225 day orbit around the Sun will carry it to its closest point to the Sun, “Perihelion” on June 12.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Taurus.

Mars, magnitude 1.7, approaching the feet of Gemini The Twins glows in the west right after dark.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.2, is in Cetus The Sea Serpent.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, in Aquarius and Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Capricorn, shine in the southeast before the first light of dawn, are still fairly close to each other, but are slowly spreading apart.

Saturn rises around midnight and Jupiter follows Saturn into the sky about 30 to 45 minutes later.

Uranus is out of sight in the glow of dawn.

Neptune, 7.8 magnitude, Aquarius, 22° east of Jupiter, lurks low in the east-southeast before dawn begins.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring, and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 1.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 7 at 252,420 Miles.

New Moon will occur June 10 at 5:54 AM CDT or 10:54 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be an Annular Solar Eclipse on June 10. An annular solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is too far away from the Earth to completely cover the Sun. This results in a ring of light around the darkened Moon. The Sun’s corona is not visible during an annular eclipse. The path of this eclipse will be confined to extreme eastern Russia, the Arctic Ocean, western Greenland, and Canada. A partial eclipse will be visible in the northeastern United States, Europe, and most of Russia.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 17.

Summer Solstice will occur at 10:21 PM CDT June 20 or 03:21 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 23 at 223,669 Miles.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 24 at 1:40 PM CDT or 18:40 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

This is also the last of three supermoons for 2021. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

Unfortunately, a near Full Moon will wash out all but the brightest meteors.

On January 3, 2021 G J Leonard of the Mount Lemmon Observatory discovered an inbound comet which at that time was at the same distance from the Sun as Jupiter. This comet, C/2021 A1 (Leonard), though faint now, if it matches its brightness forecast, which so far it has, at its peak in December, it should be easily visible using binoculars and perhaps a naked eye object.

Stay tuned fore for more.

4389 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 17, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

In 2013 the European Space Agency – ESA launched the Gaia Space Observatory. It is
designed for astrometry: the measuring of positions, distances, and motions of stars. The mission’s goal is to construct the largest and most precise 3D space catalog ever made, with over
1 billion astronomical objects, mainly stars, but also planets, comets, asteroids, and quasars, among others, monitoring each of its target objects about 70 times to study the precise position and motion of each target, and will keep doing so as the mission continues.

The ESA has released the most detailed map of the Milky Way ever produced, containing 1.7 billion stars. This map views the Milky Way edge on, since that how it its draped across the night sky, because of our location in the galaxy we are looking from the inside out. The image is the complete night sky from the center of the galaxy in Sagittarius to the opposite point or anticenter in the constellation Auriga, and Beta Tauri (Elnath), the bright star that appears nearest this point.

ESA_Gaia_DR2_AllSky_Brightness_Colour_8000x4000_transparent.png (8000×4000)

Looking at seven million stars they found that some 30 000 of them were part of an ‘odd collection’ moving through the Milky Way. The observed stars are currently passing by our solar neighborhood and we are so deeply embedded in this collection that its stars surround us almost completely, and so can be seen across most of the night sky.

Even though they are interspersed with other stars, the stars in the collection stood out in the Gaia data because they all move along elongated trajectories in the opposite direction to the majority of the Galaxy’s other hundred billion stars, including the Sun.

These stars, since they are draped in an elongated fashion through the galaxy have been nicknamed the “Gaia Sausage”.

It is believed that these stars are the remnants of another galaxy that collided with and then merged into the Milky Way early in its life, around 10 billion years ago

The stars now form most of our Galaxy’s inner halo – a diffuse component of old stars that were born at early times and now surround the main bulk of the Milky Way known as the central bulge and disc.

Globular Star Cluster NGC 2808 in the constellation Carina, one of our galaxy’s most massive clusters, containing more than a million stars is considered by some as the remnant core of that galaxy and is estimated to be 12.5-billion years old.

There is another collision scheduled, by the way.

The Milky Way and M31, the Andromeda Galaxy, orbit around a common center of gravity called the “barycenter” and are closing in on each other at 68 miles per second and will eventually collide with or merge with each other, disrupting both galaxies spiral structures and then settling into a stable shape.

The Milky Way and Andromeda won’t meet for another 4 to 5 billion years and won’t truly merge for another 5 or so billion years after that and though It will be a dramatic transformation, only on the largest of scales will the merger look like anything like a collision. The stars in each galaxy are spaced too far apart to have a good chance of them hitting each other.

They won’t be alone, either. Studies suggest that M33, the Triangulum Galaxy, the third-largest galaxy of the galaxy cluster which we belong to, The Local Group, will participate in the collision event, also. Its most likely fate is to end up orbiting the merged remnant of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies and finally to merge with it in an even more distant future.

Luckily my homeowner’s insurance covers all of this, which as the Attorney Mike Slocum says on TV it is “just another frog on a lily pad in a lake of pain.”

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on June 8. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you and yours well.

After months of enduring the COVID crises and its associated effects it seems there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Soon, hopefully, life will return to it’s normal routines of gatherings, outings and dare I say, ALERT meetings at the NWS.

People have mixed feeling about the vaccines. My friend Cooter Ray at the bait and tackle shop assures me that its bad news, with all the secret nanoprobes, it resequencing everyone’s RNA, DNA, NCAA and such, not to mention the secret invisible tracking tattoos that the little bandage gizmos they use on you imprint you with. He knows it’s true, after all he saw it on YouTube.

My doctor, on the other hand, who perhaps has just a little more knowledge than Cooter Ray, seems to think it is a good idea to be vaccinated.

My doctor I would trust to operate on me, Cooter Ray not so much so, since he probably wouldn’t even clean the fish innards off the knife, and since it seems odd that I would trust my doctor with every other facet of my health except for vaccine shots, I went ahead and received both shots.

The nanobots have actually improved my radio reception. The genetic resequencing has removed all my wrinkles, turned my hair brown again and my wisdom teeth have grown back. The tracking gizmo has proved to be a disappointment as Siri and Alexa do a much better job.

So, I say go ahead and get the shots.

If I am “being a sheep” as some might say, at least I’ll be a healthy one.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2021 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2021 tropical season, which runs from June 1 to November 30

Their forecast predicts an above average season with 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect 8 to become hurricanes and 4 to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. There is 69% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States.

AccuWeather released its 2021 Atlantic hurricane forecast earlier. Their outlook also calls for an above average season with 16 to 20 named storms. Of those storms, 7 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes; and 3 to 5 are likely to hit the United States.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook on May 15.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes was the most active and the fifth costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record and the second season which exhausted the supply of names, causing the NHC to resort to using the Greek alphabet for names.

The forecasts just given both call for a season more severe than the 2020 season.

The Atlantic Hurricane names for 2021 are: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.

The World Meteorological Association – WMO has decided to retire the use of the Greek alphabet for tropical storms, which had to be resorted to in the 2005 and 2020 seasons when they ran out of names.

A couple of factors which led to this decision included the problem of replacing a name if a storm name was retired due to the severity of the storm. With regular names they just replaced the name with another. For instance “Bill” could be replaced with “Bubba”. But how do you replace the retired letters in the Greek alphabet – Eta & Iota?

Also, the Greek alphabet – Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc. isn’t in “alphabetical order”, and so was confusing. Some thought that Gamma was the seventh letter instead of the third.

To cure this problem the WMO has created a Supplemental List of names to be used should the regular allotment be exhausted: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

With Bill in the Main List and Will in the Supplemental, I have two chances of making the cut, since my middle name is William.

With those odds maybe I better call Vegas…

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

 

Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2020 there have been 26 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Aries.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude -1.1 in Aries, is emerging in the west-northwestern horizon after twilight,

He will reach “Dichotomy” or half lit stage like a First Quarter Moon on May 11.

On May 17 he will reach his highest point in the evening sky or “Greatest Eastern Elongation when he will be 22 degrees above the horizon.

This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky.

Below Mercury, Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Aries, is emerging into the evening sky just above the west-northwest horizon.

Scan with binoculars just above the west-northwest horizon starting about 15 – 30 minutes after sunset during a brief window of visibility between when the sky is too bright, and the planets get too low and disappear into the twilight haze and then below the horizon. The exact best time after sunset will depend on your latitude, the farther north the better and the clarity of the air.

At the beginning of the month Mercury will be 4.5 degrees above Venus. By May 28 they will be 4 degrees or one moon-width apart. Venus will maintain its brightness, but Mercury will be fading.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Libra.

Mars, magnitude 1.5, in Gemini, glows in the west after dark. In a telescope he is just a tiny shimmering blob.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Pisces.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2 and Saturn, magnitude +0.7, in Capricorn, rise more than an hour before the first light of dawn. As dawn begins, spot them low in the southeast. Jupiter will the brighter of the two, with Saturn to Jupiter’s right or upper right. Saturn is one fifteenth as bright a mighty Jupiter.

On May 23 Saturn will stop his usual eastward motion through the stars and will very slowly appear to begin moving in the opposite direction westward. Or more technically “Saturn will enter retrograde motion.”

This reversal of direction is a phenomenon that all the solar system’s outer planets periodically undergo, a few months before they reach opposition, or when they are directly opposite the Sun, with the Earth located in between.

The retrograde motion is caused by the Earth’s own motion around the Sun. As the Earth circles the Sun, our perspective or view of an object changes as we approach, catch up to and then pass an object.

The planets move at their own constant speed and track. When the Earth catches up it is like passing a slow-moving car that’s stuck in the left lane. When we pass it, it momentarily appears to be going backwards against background objects and then once we are passed, the illusion disappears.

Similarly, the outer planets retrograde motion, which if plotted out is a line with a loop in the middle, is temporarily super-imposed on the planet’s long-term eastward motion through the constellations as the Earth passes them in the right lane.

This isn’t a dramatic or “golly gee” event. Unless you are tracking nightly with a star chart, you may never even notice that this celestial loop de loop has been occurring

Uranus and Neptune are hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring, and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

4375 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 1, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 3.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It can produce up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 40 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The Last Quarter moon will block out some of the faintest meteors this year. But if you are patient, you should be able to catch quite a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur on May 11 at 2:01PM CDT or 19:01 UTC. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 11 at a distance of 252,595 miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur May 19.

Full Moon will occur May 25th at 6:14 AM CDT or 11:14 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

This is also the second of three supermoons for 2021. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on May 26. A total lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow, or umbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color.

The eclipse will be visible throughout the Pacific Ocean and parts of eastern Asia, Japan, Australia, and western North America.

Birmingham will see a Partial Eclipse.

The first traces or Penumbral Eclipse will begin at 3:47 AM
Partial Eclipse will begin at 4:44 AM
Maximum Eclipse for Birmingham will occur at 5:41 AM

This is the moment when the eclipse reaches its greatest coverage while the entire Moon is still above the horizon in Birmingham. The true maximum point of this eclipse cannot be seen in Birmingham because the Moon will be below the horizon at that time.

Since the Moon is near the horizon at this time, it is recommended that you go to a high point or an unobstructed area with a clear view to the West-southwest for the best view of the eclipse before Moonset at 5:44 AM, 4 minutes after Sunrise.

In the Northern Sky the Big Dipper, part of Ursa Major, the Great Bear, begins the month
upside down, “spilling its water” on Polaris, the North Star, which is the tip of the handle of the Little Dipper or Ursa Minor, the Little Bear.

Interestingly, the Big and Little Dippers are arranged so that when one is upright, the other is upside down. In addition, their handles appear to extend in opposite directions. Of course, the Big Dipper is by far the brighter of the two, appearing as a long-handled pan, while the Little Dipper resembles a dim ladle.

The Big Dipper is called by other names. In the Netherlands it’s the “Saucepan”, “The Plough” in England and “The Great Wagon” in other parts of Europe.

I can understand the thinking with these. However, for the life of me I have never been able to visualize a bear, big or small.

Maybe it is like in the Song of Solomon where the guy tells his lover “I have compared thee, Oh, my love, to a company of horses in Pharoah’s chariots…thy hair is as a flock of goats…thy teeth are like a flock of sheep that are even shorn…”.

Today telling a girl “my darling, you remind me of a horse, your hair look like a bunch of goats and your teeth could belong to a herd of hairless sheep”. Well, somehow, I just don’t see that working.

I guess you just had to be there to understand it.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

 

This month’s meeting will be on May 11. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you safe and well.

Our hearts go out to those affected by the recent tornado outbreaks. These tragic events go to underscore the danger and vulnerability we all face from a tornado that season is far from over.

Seeing that the threat is real and ongoing, make sure you have a plan in place and a safe place in mind, both at home, school and at work should a tornado threaten you or your loved ones.

Pay attention to forecasts – possible tornado threats are usually forecast days in advance.

Pay attention Watches and Warnings – have multiple reliable ways to receive them wherever you
may be located.

Pay attention to the conditions around you – brief spin up tornados can occur between radar
scans or in areas of problematic radar coverage, either due to the distance from the radar, signal obstructions or atmospheric conditions affecting the radar returns.

Do understand that with the exception of the NWS, state and local authorities, and local news media, not everyone will give you good instructions as to what to do in an emergency and social media is perhaps one of the worst sources, as everyone is an “expert”.

Also, be aware of well-meaning misinformed people.

For example, I was talking to a friend who said that he was in a major department store when the tornado warning was issued. They made everyone get into the center of the store.

Similarly, when I worked for another major department store, their tornado action plan to take time to count down cash registers (which would probably be have blown away anyway) and also to put us in the center of the store, where the kitchen knives and forks sat waiting to be sailed into us by the wind.

In both cases they were actually putting people in one of the most vulnerable parts of the building. The center of the store, which is the weakest point of the building, for the roof is subject to collapse due to weight of the accumulated rain load, not to mention the winds tearing at the roof.

When I pointed out to my manager that this was not the best idea, I was confidently, if not smugly assured that “this is what our experts recommend”.

Another group of experts, namely the Storm Prediction Center recommends “In a shopping mall or large store: Do not panic. Watch for others. Move as quickly as possible to an interior bathroom, storage room or small enclosed area, away from windows.”

A small room, against an interior wall, or under a staircase is much safer than sheltering under
the center of a large freestanding roof.

 

My recommendation is that you learn for yourselves the proper precautions are and take the necessary steps for protecting the lives of you and your loved ones.

Heed the advice of learned authorities and reliable sources, as they know what is or may be about to happen and any overriding circumstances and conditions that may be present that may alter the usual recommended actions.

See: Tornado Safety (Online Tornado FAQ) (noaa.gov)

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Important Changes To The Amateur Radio Service

Perhaps you have heard of the recent FCC decision regarding the future of Amateur Radio.

If you have heard, I am sure that you are just as disturbed by this troubling news as I am.
But, just in case you have not heard this most distressing news, I will repeat their statement here in its entirety:

“In response to unrelenting complaints by the certain of the amateur community regarding the easing of amateur radio testing requirements, and to enable the continued education and certification processes needed to ensure that the national pool of amateur radio operators possess the technical and operational skills and knowledge necessary to provide effective communications during emergencies, effective September 31, 2021 the Federal Communications Commission will require all licensed amateurs to begin taking remedial examinations. To maintain current license class or to remain licensed, all US amateur radio operators must complete the reexamination process by September 31, 2022. Retesting will also be required for all license renewals and must be completed within one year prior to submitting the renewal application.

For further information, contact James X. Shorts, Assistant Liaison to the Deputy Chief of Public Relations for the FCC at (202) 555-1212 or jim.shorts@fcc.gov. For more news and information about the FCC, please visit www.fcc.gov“

I must admit that this has me troubled and perplexed.

I would be even more troubled and perplexed if it was actually true.

In other words….

APRIL FOOL!

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Tornado Terminology

During the recent outbreaks I found that there is still much confusion with the general public concerning tornado terminology, and you may find yourself having to explain the differences in meaning to others.

A TORNADO WATCH means “Weather conditions could lead to the formation of severe storms and tornadoes. BE PREDARED: Know your safe location. Be ready to act quickly if a Warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching.”

A TORNADO WARNING means “A tornado has been spotted or indicated by weather radar, meaning a tornado is occurring or expected soon. TAKE ACTION: There is imminent danger to life and property. Immediately seek refuge in the safest location possible.”

A TORNADO EMERGENCY means “An exceedingly rare situation with a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage due to a confirmed violent tornado. TAKE ACTION. There is imminent danger to life and property. Immediately seek refuge in the safest location possible”

……………………………………………….……………………………………………………………………

The Jefferson County ARES Net New Frequency

The Jefferson County ARES Net has made a major change as it will be operating on the Healthcare Community Amateur Radio Club – HCARC repeater system on 146.760 MHz – KK4BSK.

This change was made due to 76 having several advantages over the BARC 146.880 MHz repeater which had been in use, such as having a much wider footprint, multiple inputs, Echolink capability and the absence of the beacon interference which hampered weak signals from being heard.

While the 76 repeater will be the Primary ARES repeater, 88 will maintain a vital role as the secondary frequency and may be used as a tactical frequency for damage reports, flooding reports, logistical support and as the backup repeater should 76 become disabled.

Like 88, 76 has a minus 600 kHz offset.
The main repeater pl tone is 88.5 Hz
The Southwestern remote pl is 94.8 Hz
The Eastern remote pl is 114.8 Hz
The Western remote pl is 131.8 Hz

I suggest you program them all, that way if one remote goes down, you probably can hit another.
I also would program 146.760 simplex. That way if the repeater goes down, or you are unable to reach one of the remotes it may still be possible for someone to hear you after the repeater carrier drops. It’s an old emergency trick of the trade.

There are some things you can do to help make this transition easier. One is to check in to the ARES Net on Tuesday night at 8 PM. Two, if you are listening to 88 during an emergency and someone come on the repeater looking for the Net, advise them of the frequency change so they can find the Net. Thirdly, if they have emergency or priority traffic or storm reports and cannot reach 76, then take their report or traffic verbatim and relay it to the Net on 76.

I say verbatim so that details which may not seem important, but in fact are aren’t lost in the translation. If something, such as a location or name has an uncommon spelling, it should be spelled out and street / cross-street locations should be used to avoid confusion.

A special thanks is to be given to the Healthcare Community Amateur Radio Club HCARC for making this resource available.

The 146.76 repeater is a repeater of historical significance. It is one of the oldest, if not the oldest repeater in the Birmingham area. It was operated for decades by the H & H Repeater Organization run by Hop Hays, K4TQR and Henry Wingate, K4HAL. They donated the repeater to HCARC to help further their mission of providing emergency communications assistance to the Jefferson County Health Care Coalition -JCHCC and surrounding HCC’s using amateur radio during emergencies and for promoting, participating in, and providing emergency/disaster-based communications training.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Generational Tornadoes

Every year the United States sees tornadoes and tornado outbreaks. The US leads the world in tornadoes and the southeast has the distinction of being the only place on the planet with two distinct tornado seasons, or perhaps a single season from November to April with two distinct peaks in the spring and fall.

Many factors must come together correctly for an outbreak to occur, but occasionally all the textbook ingredients of shear, moisture, temperatures, jet stream location and instability occur in a perfect combination. When this happens, you have a super outbreak. Because this happens usually once a generation, it is called a ”generational outbreak”

The earliest recorded tornado outbreak in the United States was the “Four-State Tornado Swarm” which occurred in New England on August 15, 1787, dropping at least 5 tornadoes. Whether the system that produced this outbreak was part of a larger system that may have dropped tornadoes in what would become the Southeastern US is impossible to tell, for this area was sparsely populated and there was virtually no communications with the region other than frontier dispatches, rumors, legends and tall tales.

As time progressed there are scattered reports of tornadoes in Alabama, but, no definite indications of outbreaks, though perhaps there are hints with the tornadoes of May 6, 1866 which struck Perry & Talladega Counties & the tornadoes of May 5, 1869 which struck Pickens, Tuscaloosa, and Talladega Counties. These occurring on the same day give hints of a broader organized event.

A larger outbreak occurred on November 22, 1874 affecting Greene, Shelby, Hale, Dallas. Colbert & Lauderdale Counties.

Pike, Chambers and Lee Counties were affected by tornadoes associated with the March 10 – 20 1875 Southeast Tornado Outbreak which dropped at least 19 tornadoes over the Southeast. The Chambers-Lee County tornado was posthumously rated as F4 and crossed the Chattahoochee River into Harris County Georgia. This tornado, which was possibly a multiple vortex tornado was the last “violent” tornado to strike Lee County until March 3, 2019.

Either due to much better reporting or the quirks of nature there seems to have been a serious uptick in activity in the 1880’s. Outbreaks occurred on March 27-28. 1882, affecting Dallas, Henry, Marengo, Pike, Butler, Washington, Madison, Lee and Barbour Counties and April 22-23, 1884 affecting Talladega, Jefferson, St. Clair, Randolph and Cherokee Counites all leading to 1884.

The first definitive “generational” tornado outbreak occurred on February 19-20, 1884 – the “Enigma Outbreak” – so called because the exact number of tornadoes and fatalities are unknown. There were at least 51 confirmed tornadoes and possibly over sixty during the 15-hour event.

The outbreak began during the late morning in Mississippi, preceded by severe thunderstorms in Louisiana. Shortly thereafter, the outbreak widened and intensified, progressing from Alabama to Virginia between noon and midnight with wave after wave of tornado families.

The Alabama outbreak consisted of the following tornadoes:

F2 – Lowndes County, MS & Pickens County from a storm originating in Columbus MS at 11:30 PM CST
F? – Pickens County at 12:00 PM CST
F2 – Coosa County at 12:30 PM CST

F4 – Jefferson & St. Clair Counties at 1:20 PM CST. This tornado produced over 13 deaths, the storm moved from Oxmoor, in what is now the Homewood area, Northeast through the Cahaba Valley. Most intense damage was in the industrial area of Leeds, where new, well-constructed homes were destroyed, some of them swept away along with their foundations

F4 – Talladega, Calhoun, Cherokee Counties & Floyd County GA at 2:30 PM CST. This tornado produced 10 deaths just north of Piedmont, 14 deaths in a school at Goshen, and additional deaths and severe damage in the Rock Run area. Large homes destroyed near Cave Spring, Georgia. Years later another F4 tornado, closely following the path of this one, would hit the Piedmont–Goshen area and killed 20 people at the Goshen United Methodist in Piedmont on Palm Sunday, March 27, 1994.

F2 – Talladega & Calhoun Counties at 2:45 CST
F? – Perry County, time Unknown
F? – Cullman & Marshall Counties at 8:00 PM

Just 3 three weeks later another “nongenerational” outbreak would drop 5 more tornadoes on Alabama.

After an active 1895 season, except for an active April of 1899, tornado occurrences flatten out until 1908.

On April 23, 1908 a “generational” outbreak began that would be called the “Dixie Tornado Outbreak” which is tied with the 2011 Super Outbreak for the fourth deadliest tornado outbreak killing 320 people. Though Alabama was struck by only 4 of the 29 tornadoes spawned, one was an F4 or a family of long track tornadoes that stayed on the ground for 105 miles for nearly an hour and a half from Walker & Jefferson County, though Blount, Marshall and Dekalb Counties killing 35 and injuring 188.

This was before satellites, radar or radios. In fact, in those days forecasters were forbidden to try to predict tornadoes or even use the word “tornado” “to avoid public panic.”

Muggy weather, green skies, a roar, and a “cyclone” tearing up everything and everyone was about as much warning as was available.

Things weren’t much improved when the next “generational” outbreak, the 1932 Deep South Tornado outbreak occurred March 21-22, 1932, producing at least 36 tornadoes which killed 330, including 15 tornadoes and 268 deaths in Alabama. Alabama withstood eight F4 tornadoes.

The next “generational” outbreak would be called the “Day of 100 Tornadoes” or the 1974 Super Outbreak of April 3 – 4, 1974, which killed 315, including 86 in Alabama, which endured 8 of the 148 tornadoes spawned. Of particular note was the F5 tornado that devastated the town of Guin. This was the longest-duration tornado recorded in the outbreak at one hour forty minutes, travelling 79 miles, and is considered to be one of the most violent tornadoes ever recorded.

The detestation was so complete in one six block area that NWS damage surveyor Bill Herman, remarked that “It was just like the ground had been swept clean. It was just as much of a total wipeout as you can have”. J.B. Elliot noted that the destruction was so complete, that even some of the foundations were “dislodged, and in some cases swept away.”

It is possible that more tornadoes occurred than are recorded in the official tally. What was then “state of the art” radar for that time was now available, but it was very limited in its capabilities as compare to today’s Dual Pol Radar.

The one radar site in Alabama was at Centerville. This was the old WSR57, which had a CRT like a sonar screen in old submarine movies. Someone had to watch the screen constantly when storms were possible to make sure nothing important was missed and the storms were tracked using grease pencils, and the forecasters had to manually turn a crank to adjust the radar’s scan elevation.

Tornadoes were suspected if a thunderstorm displayed a hook shaped configuration, hence the term “hook echo”. So, without todays velocity display analyzing the storm wind fields and correlation coefficient displays indicating lofted debris, there may have been tornadoes in remote locations that were missed. But the forecasters did an admirable job considering with what they had to work with.

April 25-28, 2011 would see the next and latest “generational” outbreak producing 360 tornadoes, peaking with 217 on April 27. 29 of Alabama’s 62 tornadoes occurred in central Alabama in two distinct waves.

With modern “wall to wall” TV coverage viewers watched with morbid fascination and fear as tornado after tornado were tracked and watched as Cullman, Tuscaloosa & Birmingham were struck on live television.

So, we have seen that “generational outbreaks” occurred in 1884, 1908, 1932, 1974 and 2011, or roughly every 32 years, plus or minus 9 years or so. So, when will the next Super Outbreak occur? Logically somewhere between 2034 – 2052 centering on the year 2043.

But that is all tea leaves and elf smoke. As March of 2021 has displayed “normal outbreaks”, for lack of a better word, can occur at any time from November through March. It was a “normal” outbreak that produced the F5 “Smithfield” tornado that struck Jefferson county April 4, 1977, one of seven tornadoes that day and the April 8, 1998 outbreak which produced five tornadoes including the F5 “Oak Grove Tornado”.

Tropical systems can also produce tornado outbreaks, such as Hurricane Rita, which produced 21 tornadoes on September 25, 2008, 10 of which struck Tuscaloosa County.

It only takes one tornado to rearrange your life forever, and Isolated tornadoes can occur at any time of the year, as the single F4 tornado which destroyed McDonald’s Chapel on of April 15, 1956 demonstrates.

So, as we enter another April. keep these examples in mind, don’t live in fear, but do keep your eyes to the skies and have a reliable source for forecasts, watches and warnings.

For sooner rather than later, the skies will grow angry again.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s is March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

Snowfall is still possible though, as April 3, 1987’s 5 inches proves. The latest trace of snow was April 25, 1910.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

North Atlantic Tropical activity remains at a minimum. From 1851 to 2020 there has never been a Hurricane and only two Tropical Storms – Ana in 2003 and Arlene in 2017 which affected only shipping.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2020, 9499 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2020, 1820 deaths and as of 2013, 29,090 injuries.

As of 2017, Oklahoma leads the nation in killer violent tornados, having had 64, followed by Iowa with 54, Texas with 53, Kansas with 48 and Alabama 44.

As of 2015, Alabama ranks fourth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. They along with Illinois belong to the “over 400 club” having had over 400 tornadoes since 1950.

As of 2017 Alabama leads the nation in F5 & EF5 tornadoes, having had 9, followed by Oklahoma and Kansas with 8, and a two-way tie for third between Iowa and Texas with 6.

As of 2016 Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths with 633, followed by Texas with 552 and Mississippi with 477.

The counties most likely to be struck by violent EF5 tornadoes are Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, Madison and Marion, all of which have been struck three times.

Tuscaloosa has been stuck by four F4 & EF4 tornadoes including 1932, 1975, 2000 & 2011.

The suburbs of Birmingham, including Oak Grove, Pleasant Grove, McDonald Chapel and Smithfield have been struck by two F4 & EF4 tornadoes in 1956 & 2011 and by two F5 tornadoes in 1977 & 1998.

My Grandfather, who passed away in 1958, once said “someday a big tornado is going to go right up Jones Valley and tear everything up”.

Indeed, there is no logical or climatological reason why and an EF4 or EF5 tornado hasn’t struck or won’t strike the densely populated areas of Birmingham, including the high rises of downtown.

Whether it is due to “Divine Providence” or “random chance” otherwise known as “luck”, Birmingham has been spared.

When will that luck run out?

From 1950 to 2020 the top ten counties for tornadoes are:

Jefferson – 100
Mobile – 98
Baldwin – 97
Cullman – 92
Madison – 80
Tuscaloosa – 77
Marshall = 72
Limestone & Dekalb – 65
Walker – 57
Blount – 53

There is no basis to the myth that mountains can block tornadoes, and yet there is the strange coincidence that from the southern terminus of the Appalachian Mountains at Tannehill State Park in Tuscaloosa & Bibb Counties northeastward through Jefferson, Shelby, Blount, St. Clair, Marshall, Etowah, Dekalb and Cherokee Counties there are roughly twice as many tornadoes on the windward side of the Appalachian mountain range than on the leeward side.

 

bycounty2020.jpg (893×692) (weather.gov)

But, no matter where you might be reading this, always beware of the storms of April.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 61.1 degrees at the beginning of the month to 71.3 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 12 hours 32 minutes on April 1 to 13 hours 29 minutes on April 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

April 1 Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:08 PM
April 15 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:18 PM
April 30 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:29 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.8 is in Pisces.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

He will pass behind the Sun or be in “Superior Conjunction” on April 18 and he will reach “Perihelion” or his closest distance to the Sun on April 26.

Venus is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Virgo

Mars, magnitude 1.2, in Taurus, will pass exceedingly close to the Moon, or be in “Occultation” on April 17, passing within 0.1°North of Moon at 6:09 AM CST. If you were in Asia, you would see Mars pass directly behind the Moon.

Total lunar occultations are only visible from a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Since the Moon is much closer to the Earth than other celestial objects, its exact position in the sky differs depending on your exact location on Earth due to its large parallax. The position of the Moon as seen from two points on opposite sides of the Earth varies by up to two degrees, or four times the diameter of the full moon.

Also, since the Moon is passes along the ecliptic, the apparent track of the solar systems objects beyond Earth, from our perspective the Moon is in a southerly direction, if you were in the southern hemisphere you would look north and so the Moon would appear upside down as compare to our view.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Cetus.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.1, in Capricorn and Saturn, magnitude +0.8, in Capricorn, have been slowly emerging into the dawn. You can spot them low in the southeast about 50 or 40 minutes before sunrise. Saturn is the higher of the two, but it’s much dimmer. Look for Jupiter some 12° to Saturn’s lower left, roughly a fist at arm’s length.

Saturn has entered his version of September.

Uranus, magnitude 5.9, is in Aries, is disappearing into the glow of the Sun. On April 30 he will pass behind the Sun or be in “Conjunction”.

Neptune, is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Except for the Earth and Mars, all the major planets are on the opposite side of the solar system.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, its ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.8 in Cetus the Sea Monster

4367 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 15, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur April 4.

New Moon will occur on April 11 at 9:32 PM CST or 2:42 UTC on April 12. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on April 14, when she will be 252,351 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur April 20.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April 16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

The waxing gibbous Moon will block out all but the brightest meteors. But if you are patient you may still be able to catch a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Lyra but can appear anywhere in the sky.

April’s Full Moon will occur on April 26 at 10:33 PM CST or 03:33 UTC April 27. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as “Worm Moon”. So called because the rains disturb the earthworms & they are seen wiggling around after the rains.

This moon has also been known as the Full Crow Moon, the Full Crust Moon, the Full Sap Moon, and the Lenten Moon.

This is also the first of three supermoons for 2021. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

The Moon will be at her closest distance from Earth or perigee at 222,060 miles on April 27.

Evenings in early April offer an excellent opportunity to view the zodiacal light. Zodiacal light is a faint, roughly triangular whitish glow seen in the night sky which appears to extend up from the vicinity of the sun along the ecliptical plane. It is caused by sunlight scattered by space dust in the orbital plane of the Earth.

From the Northern Hemisphere, early spring is the best time of year to observe this elusive glow after sunset. It appears slightly fainter than the Milky Way, so you’ll need a clear moonless sky and an observing site located far from the city. Look for the cone-shaped glow, which points nearly straight up from the western horizon, after the last vestiges of twilight have faded away.

This is the time of year when the dim Little Dipper – Ursa Minor – juts to the right from the North Star, Polaris, which is the end of the Little Dipper’s handle, during late evening. The much brighter Big Dipper curls over high above it, “dumping water” into it. They do the reverse in the fall.

Now that it’s spring, the signature fall-and-winter constellation Cassiopeia is retreating down after dark. But for mid-northern latitudes Cassiopeia is circumpolar, never going away completely. Look for it fairly low in the north-northwest these evenings. It’s standing nearly on end.

Cassiopeia appears to have a new 7.8 magnitude star. On March 18 Yuji Nakamura of Japan discovered Nova Cassiopeiae 2021, also known as V1405 Cassiopeiae.

How long this dying star, visible only in telescopes, will remain visible no one knows.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

 

This month’s meeting will be on April 13 at 7PM.

The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting. Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

I hope to see you there!

Mark Wells
WD4NYL & WRJE893
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/