ALERT Newsletter

ALERT NEWSLETTER – July 2022

Published 07/01/2022 | By WD4NYL

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as we wind our way towards the heat of Summer.

The biggest news around is that ALERT meetings at the NWS office have resumed!

So, if you haven’t been to a live ALERT meeting yet, bring your foot long COVID Beard and
join us!

Bring your wallet as you do, for the time has arrived for ALERT dues.

Join me as I dust off the wallet, shoo away the moths and cough up some dough, so we will remain current active members

If you can’t attend in person, I suggest visiting our blog at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf for information on where to send the dues and also for the form if you are not a member and would like to join.

Until we meet again, everyone stay safe!

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Come On, Just It A Try!

It is a common scenario on TV shows and movies. Our hero, or victim, depending on the plot, is driving along a dusty road and steam begins billowing out from under the hood as the radiator hose ruptures and dumps its contents on a lonely stretch of Highway 224.

Reaching for the cellphone, it cheerfully says “no signal”, which is frustrating and somewhat mystifying since they passed a cell tower two miles back.

In the TV version our hero or victim to be, tries moving around or climbing a windmill tower and its still “no signal.” With nightfall approaching, he decides to leave his safe shelter, which is what his car is, leave no note of where he is heading, so that when the deputies find the car three hours later, which they will do, and would have found sooner, if he had raised the hood as a sign that “hey, I’m broken down”, they will have no clue where to look, but he does manage to leave behind that cooler by the blanket. You know the one. The one that is stuffed with food, ice cold water, soft drinks and the other makings for the sandwiches he was going to make while he tried to video elusive salamanders for his YouTube channel, enough to feed a horse for a week, and he leaves all this behind to wander cluelessly into parts unknown.

Our TV hero stumbles upon Aunt Gladys’s farm, who give him sweet tea, some of her famous nanner puddin’ (which you ought to try), and though she hasn’t had a telephone for years, she remembers that Uncle Otis was a “ham radio operator” and they pull a junker out of the basement, plug it in (minus any antenna) and either call “Crawdad Tracker” on Channel 19, since Hollywood doesn’t know the difference between ham and CB radio, or plops on some random weird frequency somewhere on the radio dial and says with authority “this is PU24XY95 with emergency traffic.”
And, as should be expected, someone who anxiously hovers over random weird frequencies somewhere on the radio dial answers “PU24XY95 this is BARF4U987, I’m going to autopatch you into the 911 center.” After all, isn’t that how it works?

Or our victim comes to a ram shackled house, lured by banjo music, and ends up being the main course for dinner.

But, maybe a better, real life solution in cases of needing help but, having “no signal” would be TRY IT ANYWAY!

If you have an emergency and you are in an area with no cell reception on your carrier, another carrier may have perfect coverage, though your phone does not “see it” and will say “no service”. If you go ahead and call 911, if any tower with any carrier hears your 911 call, it will automatically connect you to complete the emergency call.

This is true even if a phone has been deactivated and has no SIM card, per FCC requirements.

Also, even if your phone says, “no signal”, the cell tower might be “seeing” you phone, as it has a better receiver. So, akin to “broadcasting in the blind” an SOS or Mayday, dial 911 and even if you hear nothing, tell where you are (street/cross street, mile marker, etc.) and the nature of the emergency, repeating this three times. They might be hearing you, though you cannot hear them.

You will have nothing to lose and everything to gain if it works., so come on, just give it a try!

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FM DXing

In our April Newsletter we looked at the AM Broadcast band and examples of what stations you might be able to receive, depending on the time of day and the judicious use of a rabbit’s foot.

Next, we will take a peek at the most widely used of the three free over the air broadcast mediums – the FM Broadcast band. The FM band, which stretches from 88 to 108 MHz is a deceptively large band. It is 17 times as large as the AM Broadcast band and 5 times larger than the 144 – 148 MHz Two Meter Amateur band.

The US FM band consists of 300 channels spaced 200 kHz part. It is mainly for local and multicounty coverage, but on occasion the band will open up and distant stations will be received. The causes of these DX receptions are the same as with 2 Meters ham signal DX – tropospheric ducting caused by temperature inversions.

Springtime is the peak FM DX season, though it can occur in any season and usually occurs during the morning hours, as the Sun rises and heats the upper atmosphere, while the lower levels are still cool or cold. This temperature inversion will cause radio signals to travel dozens if not hundreds of miles. Assuming a stable non churning atmosphere, there will always be a morning temperature inversion, even in the Summer. Sometimes it is exceedingly weak and unnoticeable and sometimes it is very strong, lasting throughout the morning. Sometimes it is detectable on weather radar. If you are looking at the radar and the “ground clutter pattern” around the site blooms like a rose, you know you are seeing a band opening at 2700 – 3000 MHz or upper UHF. It is a good bet that the lower UHF frequencies of 440 & 900 MHz are opening also and very possibly the VHF realms also, which would cove 6 Meters, FM, 2 Meters and the neglected 220 MHz ham bands.

Also, there are the temperature inversions that can accompany cold fronts, as a cold front passes and undercuts the warmer air that it is replacing.

The farthest FM radio station I have ever received was a Public Radio station in Oklahoma near the bottom end of the band, having a fundraising telethon. I almost called them to tell them they were reaching Alabama, but, being a lily liver, much to my regret, I changed my mind.

Though I don’t consider myself a fossil quite yet (though some might disagree), I have seen the FM broadcasting evolve over the years.

One change which occurred concerns Birmingham TV station WBRC aka Fox6. The old NTSC mode of TV transmission was a very broad “composite signal”. The video portion or subcarrier was a broad band AM signal, with the FM audio subcarrier sitting on top of the channel. The old Channel 6 signal was next to the bottom of the FM Broadcast band, stretching from 82 to 88 MHz and anyone with an analog FM receiver could listen to WBRC’s audio on 87.75 MHz.

Listening to your favorite shows or news as you drove was fun, but when tornado warnings were issued, the capability became invaluable.

Two things killed this resource. The FCC mandated that by 2009 all full power TV stations switch to the current HDTV digital format, which is incompatible with FM receivers. Also, FM receivers started sporting digital tuners, rather than analog “dial type”, and these being incapable of tuning below 88 MHz, meant they could not receive the 87.75 MHz audio signal.

Many were angered by the loss of this resource. Some blamed the NWS , which has no control over what the broadcasters do, and some blamed the broadcasters who had no choice in the matter. Blame the FCC instead.

But, remembering how many are angered when normal programming is interrupted due to tornado warnings today, it just proves that broadcasters can’t win for losing.

To try to fill the gap, some FM stations simulcast the TV meteorologists if the warning is for their county. What is happening in the next county may or may not be covered depending on the station, their coverage area and target audience.

Another change I’ve seen is the large growth of stations on the band. In 1977 there were maybe a dozen FM stations in the Birmingham area. Now including primary stations and their relays or “translators” there are dozens.

“Translators” are relay stations that rebroadcast the primary stations signal, just as our repeaters do, to increase the stations footprint. Some translator’s signals are so pure that except for a millisecond delay you can’t tell it from its source, a few MHz up or down the band. Others may sound muffled, distorted or off frequency.

The translators present a major problem for FM DXers in that they occupy so many channels, that they don’t leave very many gaps for distant stations that may drift in, where in the past there were many.

One point worth mentioning is FM signals are much more location dependent than AM broadcast signals. On channels with weaker signals, you may hear on the same frequency one station on one side of town and another on the other side of town.

Then factor in FM’s characteristic “capture effect”, where, if two stations are present the stronger signal will literally take over your receiver, then you can have interesting situations.

For example, I was listening to one distant station which featured Christian programming talking about love and how “love conquers all” and suddenly another station switches in with someone rapping, using every lewd word in the book and a few not yet listed.

“I don’t recall St. Paul saying that” remarked to myself

Nearly everyone has a FM radio. Even if it is the one to the right of your steering wheel.

Take some time and cruise through the band and see what you can find. You might be surprised what you have been missing!

Radio Log
Spring 2022

MHz Channel Reception Details

87.9 200 Nil
88.1 201 WSJL- Bessemer, AL – Christian Talk
Momentary – Hip Hop with filthy language
Momentary – Spanish – Nonreligious
88.3 202 WJUV – Cullman, AL – Catholic – Guadalupe Radio
Momentary – Spanish Religious
Momentary – Classical
Momentary – Urban
88.5 203 WLJR – Birmingham, AL – Christian Radio
88.7 204 WELL – Waverly, AL – Christian Music
88.9 205 WMFT – Tuscaloosa, AL – Christian Radio – Moody Bible Institute
89.1 206 WDNX – Olive Hill, TN – Christian Radio
89.3 207 WLRH – Huntsville, AL – Public Radio
WPJN – Jemison, AL – Contemporary Christian Music
Bleed over from 89.5 – Christian Music – Family Radio
89.5 208 WBFR – Birmingham, AL – Christian Music – Family Radio
89.7 209 KRLE – Carbon Hill, AL – Christian Radio – K-Love
89.9 210 W210CA – Birmingham, AL – WBHJ-HD2 – Christian Music – WAY FM Network
90.1 211 Bleed over from 90.3
90.3 212 WBHM – Birmingham, AL – Public Radio
90.5 213 Bleed over from 90.3
90.7 214 Bleed over from 91.1
90.9 215 Bleed over from 91,1
91.1 216 WAJH – Birmingham, AL – Jazz Hall Radio
91.3 217 Bleed over from 91.1
Momentary – Religious
91.5 218 WUAL – Tuscaloosa, AL – Public Radio
Momentary – Religious
91.7 219 Bleed over from 91.9
91.9 220 WGIB – Birmingham, AL – Christian Radio
92.1 221 WKUL – Cullman, AL – Country Music & Talk
Momentary – Jazz
92.3 222 WLWI – Montgomery, AL – Country Music
92.5 223 WYDE – Cordova, AL – Christian Music
92.7 224 W224CK – Vestavia Hills, AL – Relay of WDXB-HD2 – Black Information
Network
92.9 225 WTUG – Tuscaloosa, AL – Rhythm & Blues
93.1 226 W226CT- Leeds, AL – Relay of WAYE AM – Regional Mexican
93.3 227 WPLX-LP – Pelham, AL – Greatest Hits 60s, 70, & 80s
WSYE – Houston, MS – Adult Contemporary
93.5 228 Nil
93.7 229 WDJC – Birmingham, AL – Christian Music
93.9 230 Nil
94.1 231 WJLD – Birmingham, AL – Urban Oldies & Blues
94.3 232 Momentary – Religious
Bleed over from 94.1 & 94.5
94.5 233 WJOX – Birmingham, AL – Sports Talk
94.7 Nil
94.9 234 WATV – Birmingham, AL – Urban Adult Contemporary – Rhythm & Blues
95.1 235 WXFX – Prattville, AL – Mainstream Rock
WYSF-LP – Birmingham, AL – Urban Contemporary, Reggae
95.3 236 WYDE – Birmingham, AL – Christian Music
95.5 237 Nil
95.7 238 WBHJ – Birmingham, AL – Urban Contemporary
95.9 239 Nil
96.1 240 W241AI – Gorgas, AL –Relay of WMJJ-HD3 – Christian Radio – K-Love
96.3 241 Nil
96.5 242 WMJJ – Birmingham, AL – Adult Contemporary
96.7 243 Nil
96.9 244 WRSA – Huntsville, AL – Adult Contemporary 80s & 90s
97.1 245 Nil
97.3 246 WPYA – Gardendale, AL – Top 40 & Pop
97.5 247 Nil
97.7 248 WRYD – Jemison, AL – Christian Rock
97.9 249 W262AR – Irondale, AL – Relay of WMMA – Catholic Radio
98.1 250 WTXT – Tuscaloosa, AL – Country Music
98.3 251 WAYE – Birmingham, AL – Regional Mexican La Jefa
98.5 252 Bleed over from 98.7
98.7 253 WBHK – Birmingham, AL – Urban Adult Contemporary
98.9 254 Bleed over from 98.7
99.1 255 W256CD – Fultondale, AL – WBHJ-HD2 – Christian
99.3 256 Bleed over from 99.1
99.5 257 WZRR – Birmingham, AL – News / Talk
99.7 258 Momentary – Rock
Momentary – Talk
99.9 259 WZAL-LP – Birmingham, AL – Classic Country
100.1 260 WAGG – Birmingham, AL – Urban Gospel
100.3 261 Bleed over from 100.1
100.5 262 WJOX – Birmingham, AL – Sports Talk
100.7 263 WCKF – Ashland, AL – Country Music
100.9 264 Momentary – Classic Rock
101.1 265 WXJC – Birmingham, AL – Christian
101.3 266 Momentary – Classic country
101.5 267 WQEM – Columbiana, AL – Simulcast of WGIM – Christian Radio
W268BM – Jasper, AL – Relay WJLX AM – Country Music
101.7 268 WQRR – Reform, AL – Alternative Rock
101.9 269 WHHY – Montgomery – Contemporary Top 40
102.1 270 W271BN – Birmingham, AL – WZZK-HD2 – Christian Music – Air1
102.3 271 Nil
102.5 272 WDXB – Birmingham, AL – Country Music
102.7 273 Nil
102.9 274 WFMA – Marion, AL – Contemporary Christian Music
103.1 275 W276BQ – Birmingham, AL – WQEN-HD2 – Alternative Rock
103.3 276 W277DM – Jasper, AL – Relay of WIXI relaying WJLD
103.5 277 Nil
103.7 278 WQEN – Trussville, AL – Contemporary Top 40
103.9 279 Nil
104.1 280 W281AB – Mountain Brook, AL – WMJJ-HD2 – Relay of WJLD
104.3 281 Bleed over 104.7
104.5 282 Nil
104.7 283 WZZK – Birmingham, AL – Country
104.9 284 Nil
105.1 285 W286BK – Birmingham, AL – WERC-HD2 – Christian Music
105.3 286 Nil
105.5 287 WERC – Birmingham, AL – News Talk
105.7 288 Nil
105.9 289 WRTR – Tuscaloosa, AL – News Talk
106.1 290 W291DC – Birmingham, AL – Relay of WBHM – Public Radio
106.3 291 W292EI – Warrior, AL – WBHJ-HD2 – Christian Music – WAY FM Network
106.5 292 W293CM – Graysville, AL – WERC-HD3 – Christian Music K-Love
106.7 293 Bleed over 106.9
106.9 294 WBTP – Birmingham, AL – Classic Rock
107.1 295 Bleed over 106.9
107.3 296 W297BF – Birmingham, AL – WPYA-HD2 – Alternative Rock
107.5 297 Bleed over 107.7
107.7 298 WUHT – Birmingham, AL – Urban Adult Contemporary
107.9 299 Bleed over 107.7

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss must walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

From 1851 to 2021 there have been 128 Tropical Storms and 61 Hurricanes, 29 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Gemini.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude -0.3 in Taurus The Bull, is low in the glow of sunrise, 10° to 13° to the lower left of Venus.

He rises at 4:19 CDT, 1 hour and 17 minutes before dawn.

He sinks a little lower into the sunrise day by day but brightens from magnitude –0.3 to –0.8. He will then slide into the sunrise and pass directly behind the Sun in “Superior Conjunction” on July 16.

Venus, the brilliant “Morning Star, shines at magnitude -3.9 in Taurus The Bull. She rises 2 hours before the Sun. Look for her above the east-northeast horizon, very far lower left of bright Jupiter, by roughly six fists at arm’s length.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, and her moon, sometimes called “Luna”, “Selene” or “Cynthia”, but to most, just the plain old “Moon”, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Gemini, The Twins.

The alternate names for the Moon appear now and again as we watch “lunar” eclipses, a scientist who studies the physical features of the moon is a “Selenologist” and during the days of the Apollo missions, the term “pericynthion” or the point in an elliptical orbit that passes closest to the Lunar surface, was heard.

The term may possibly be heard again as NASA plans and prepares to return to the Moon with the Artemis Program.

That is of course assuming the meatheads in Congress don’t cancel the whole thing, as they did with Apollo Missions 18, 19 & 20.

Apollo 18 was to land in a river-like channel-way called Schroter’s Valley in July 1973.
Apollo 19 was to land in the Hyginus Rille region in December 1973.
Apollo 20 was originally to land at Copernicus Crater or possibly the Crater Tycho. but, later the preferred landing site was changed to the Marius Hills, in July 1974.

All three flights were cancelled due to “budget concerns”. The cancelled Apollo 19 & 19 saved only 42 million dollars since all the flight hardware had already been built, delivered and was ready for flight.

The equipment are now are museum pieces.

We all know the reason they were really cancelled, don’t we?

I’m not saying it’s aliens, but…

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 4 at 2:10 AM CDT or 07:10
UTC, when the distance from the Sun’s center to Earth’s center will be 94,509,598 miles from our home star, as she and the Moon wobble through space, the Moon tugging on the Earth like an unruly pup on a leash.

Mars, magnitude +0.5, with his Moons Phobos and Deimos are in Pisces The Fish, shining in the east-southeast before and during early dawn.

He rises around 1:35 CDT and reaches an altitude of 41° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Winter Solstice in the Martian Northern hemisphere occurs on July 21.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.6, is in Gemini, The Twins.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, and his 79 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, is in Cetus, The Sea Monster, rising at 1 AM and reaching an altitude of 50° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Jupiter glows to the upper right if Mars.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6 ,and his 82 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Capricorn, The Sea Goat. He emerges above the south-eastern horizon around 1 AM and reaches his highest point in the sky at just after 4 AM, 42° above the southern horizon.

Uranus, magnitude +5.9, and his 27 moons and ring, in Aries, The Ram, is low in the east before the first light of dawn, between Venus and Mars.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, and his 14 moons and ring, is in Pisces, The Fish, high in the southeast before the first light of dawn, between Jupiter and Saturn.

All five naked-eye planets are lined up in the dawn. From Mercury through Saturn, they run from low in the east-northeast to high in the south arranged in order of their distance from the Sun.

Dim Uranus and Neptune also lurk among them, resulting in seven planets being arrayed in the predawn sky.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius, The Archer.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.4 in Bootes, The Herdsman.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude 17.2 in Coma Berenices or “Berenices Hair”.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Serpens, The Snake.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus,, The Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus, The Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius, The Water Bearer.

2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus, The River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed “FarFarOut”, which is 12.4 billion miles or 18.5 light hours from Earth, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

5044 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 8, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur July 6 at 9:14 PM CDT or 02:14 UTC, July 7

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 13, when she will be 221,994 miles from Earth.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 13 at 1:38 PM CDT or 6:38 UTC on July 24, when the Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated.
July’s Full Moon is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

This is also the second of three supermoons for 2022. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur July 20 at 9:19 AM CDT or 2:19 UTC.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 26, when she will be 252,448 miles from Earth.

New Moon, when the Moon is located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. will occur July 28 at 12:55 PM or 17:55 UTC.

This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The New Moon will provide dark for what should be an excellent opportunity.

Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.

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This month’s meeting will be on July 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport,

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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ALERT NEWSLETTER – June 2022

Published 06/01/2022 | By WD4NYL

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well as we ease into summer!

With the world having for the most part, reopened I trust that you are getting back into the swing of things. Enjoying outings, the great outdoors, concerts, ballgames or just puttering around with friends.

Enjoy things now, for soon the heat of summer will arrive and we will be wishing for snow.

I will be trying to keep a promise I made during a frigid day a few months back and not complain about the heat.

Back, then I said, “I’m ready for summer, mosquitoes are my friends!”

I much prefer summer heat, but I just might have to renege on the latter part.

We shall see.

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Where Is Everyone?

I have always been interested in ham radio statistics, especially since I have heard for 40 plus years now what deplorable shape the hobby is in.

So where do we stand?

As of May 26, 2022, not counting club or organization licenses, there are 776,471 individual ham radio licenses in the US, 12,299 of which are in Alabama.

The Fourth Call Area leads the nation in new callsigns, having entered the KQ calls, while other areas lag, in some cases by quite a margin, in the alphabet soup.

Some of the latest sequential callsigns in descending alphabetical order are:

KQ4AWF
KN6UKR
KK7GLB
KI5VOA
KF0JMF (which we call “zero land” but is actually the Tenth Call Area)
KE8UZR
KD9VGG
KD2ZOQ
KC3UHS
KC1RIF

One question which comes to mind is what callsign format will the FCC use once they reach KZ4ZZZ in ten years or so?

Will they start with AA3AAA – AL4ZZZ? They can’t go any higher, because Spain and other countries are allocated AM – AZ and they can’t issue A4AAA calls because they belong to Oman.

My best guess is they will start with NA calls, such as NA4AAA.

Another possibility is that they could resume issuing 2×3 W calls which they suddenly stopped issuing when they switched to the KA4### format.

The last sequential WD4 call was WD4SNE in South Carolina in 1978.

Examples of the evolution of US ham calls are:

AU (before 1912 they just made them up)
1AW (after 1912)
W1AW
W4CUE
K4UMD (my Elmer)
WA4XYZ
WB4XYZ
WD4NYL (me)
KA4AAA – KQ4ZZZ

There is a gap in the sequence between the WB & WD calls. WC was reserved for control stations in linked systems. Also, there were the old WN calls for Novices, which when they upgraded were converted to a different permanent callsign. Some were allowed to remain WNs when the new format debuted. WR was reserved for repeaters and WX for experimental stations.

There were already 2 x 3 K callsigns in existence before the format change. These were issued to US hams outside of the continental US. Such as:

KC4 – Antarctica
KH – US Pacific islands
KL7 – Alaska
KP2 – US Virgin Islands
KP4 – Puerto Rico
KZ4 – Canal Zone

Incidentally, the move to the KA format was condemned by some as being “the death knell of ham radio….they are making a way for those 20 million CBers to come in.” Since they vaguely resembled the CB callsign format. For instance my CB callsign issued in 1976 was or I say still is KAJD8693.

But, somehow ham radio survived and on paper at least, thrived.

There are at least four times as many licensed hams today as when I started in 1977. Which this leads to the question posed in the title – where is everyone?

There is one repeater in Birmingham that sees consistent activity – 146.140 MHz. Occasionally you hear people on 146.880 MHz, but it is certainly not haunted by hams as it was in the 80’s and 90’s.

The HF bands are quiet. You hear a few stations on, but, with the exception of contest weekends, they are the land of wide open spaces. During contests suddenly the bands miraculously open for the contest and there are dozens upon dozens of stations on the air. Then the contest concludes, and the ionosphere suddenly evaporates and again you here plenty of nothing.
There are various theories as to why, though there are more licenses now than ever, hams seem to have disappeared into thin air:

Woefully inaccurate numbers – Some point out that since it is a 10 year license. some may have been dead for years but are still listed. This is true, but, even if 50% of us have gone to the Great Ham Shack in the sky that would still leave 388,000 hams that ought to be being heard somewhere.

Another theory is that the operators are there, and on the air, but with so many modes available they are scattered all over creation in their own little niches, where in the past they would all be clustered on one of the few repeaters out there. Specialization has scattered the flock.

Also, it might be the case where we turn on the radio, and hearing nothing, say “the band is dead” and just cut off the radio and get back on Facebook so we can argue about politics and post cat memes.

But is the band actually dead?

Many times, if you listen above and below a ham band you will hear heavy activity, whether from Short Wave broadcasters or utility stations, such as marine, aeronautical stations and nondescript squeaks, squawks and squeals of various digital modes. Then you tune across the ham band and hear plenty of nothing.

That “dead band” is open also, but there just is no one home to use it.

There has also always been the question “the numbers look good, but how many are really active?” It can also be asked “how do you define active?” One QSO per day? Per Month? Per season? In my case I might go weeks without transmitting and then suddenly have a spurt of talking coast to coast, and then time crunches reappear, and I am back to my cat memes.

For whatever the reason that the bands are ghost towns and I have my share of blame.

One of the greatest tools for promoting ham radio is “hamming it up”.

Though I discovered ham radio by listening to nets dealing with tornado outbreaks, what “hooked” me into wanting to become a ham radio operator was just listening to hams on the air on a VHF “police radio”. Just hearing regular random rag chews and realizing “this is fun, I want to do this.”

Our greatest recruitment tool is just being on the air talking and having a good time. Leading by example and showing that “this is fun you really don’t want to miss out on.”

So, I have resolved to get back on the air more often. It may not be a daily occurrence, but my goal is to become consistently active. WD4NYL will be on the air, somewhere, if not on 2 meters, then polluting HF.

I challenge you to do likewise

Let’s show people just how “radioactive” we can really be.

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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm began issuing outlooks on May 15.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

This outlook represents an increase from last years outlook and the seventh consecutive year for a possible above normal season.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting above normal seasons.

This is due to warmer Atlantic Temperatures, La Nina conditions, weaker tropical trade winds and an enhanced West African monsoon. An enhanced monsoon supports stronger storm systems or easterly waves which are the seeds for many of the strongest and longest lived storms.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition, this is the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see, and it grows a little longer year by year.

The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 5:30PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

What harm was done? You might ask.

First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment will keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.

So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website, which is slowly being updated, www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

For the most reliable information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.

The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.

Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.

Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources.

Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.

That includes my wise prognostications also.

Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that Queen Elizabeth is a shape shifting lizard lady. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the Queen, it is still yet unproven.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2021 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2021 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

Air pollution or the lack thereof can influence tropical activity. NOAA has found that a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the U.S. is linked to a 33% increase in Atlantic storm formation in the past couple decades, while the opposite is happening in the Pacific with more pollution and fewer typhoons. Less pollution lets more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and vice versa.

Saharan sand blown across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will limit tropical development by blocking sunlight. This is a common occurrence which happens every spring and summer.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.

The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.

The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 5 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.

If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.

One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.

The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.

It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.

The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.

Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7

This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2021 there have been 98 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +4.1 in Taurus, is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise, As the month progresses, he rises higher in the morning sky reaching his highest point above the horizon in the morning sky or “Greatest Western Elongation” of 23.2 degrees from the Sun on June 16,

Venus, magnitude -4.0 in Pisces, rises soon after the beginning of dawn. She will continue to rise around the beginning of dawn continuing through August.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Taurus.

Mars, magnitude +0.6 in Pisces, in the early morning hours and during dawn in the east-south near bright Jupiter. The two planets are in conjunction sitting side by side in the predawn sky. After the beginning of the month Mars will slowly move away from his neighbor.

Mars will reach his closest approach to the Sun or “perihelion” on June 21, 1,284,000 miles.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.8, is in Gemini.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2, in Pisces, as mentioned above is in conjunction with Mars.

Saturn, magnitude +0.7, in Capricorn, is 40° or four fist widths right or upper right of Jupiter before dawn.

“About” is a good qualifier as not everyone has the same sized paw.

This comes to play also with the rule “you can determine the hours of Sunlight left in a day using an outstretched hand with the bottom touching the horizon. Each finger is 15 minutes and the full four fingers represent an hour.” The rule doesn’t take into account if you have a slender paw or one the size of a baseball mitt.

That’s why you should use your watch experiment and see what works for you. I hae to add my thumb to get the equation to work.

Uranus, 5.9 in Aries, is lost in the eastern dawn.

Neptune, 7.8 magnitude in Pisces, is 9° west or right of Jupiter before dawn begins.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim 14.4 in Sagittarius.

Pluto, which was discovered February 18, 1930, takes 248.9 Earth years to complete and orbit around the Sun. He will complete his first orbit since his discovery Monday, March 23, 2178.

I know I can’t wait!

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of 17.3 in Bootes.

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude 17.1 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude 18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least four additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Serpens.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

5035 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June at 252,395 Miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 7 at 9:49 AM or 14:49 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 14 at 6:52 AM CDT or 11:52 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

This is also the first of three supermoons for 2022. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 14 at 222,099 Miles.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 20 at 10:11 PM CDT or 04:11 UTC on June 21.

Summer Solstice will occur at 4:05 AM CDT or 09:05 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

A near New Moon should not interfere with this unpredictable shower.

New Moon will occur June 28 at 9:23 PM CDT or 02:53 UTC on June 29. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 29 at 252,638 Miles.

Around 10PM in mid-June, Libra the Scales will be passing due South. When Alpha Librae, the lower-right of the two brightest stars of Libra, is due south, if you look directly below it you will see nothing but horizon. But, if you were at a lower latitude, say 29°, the latitude of Orlando, or points south would see our brilliant, -0.27 magnitude neighbor Alpha Centauri above the horizon.

At 4.37 light years distance, the Alpha Centauri system is nearest star system to our own.

It is a triple star consisting of Alpha Centauri A, also called Rigil Kentaurus, Alpha Centauri B or Toliman and the closest star to the Sun, Alpha Centauri C also called Proxima Centauri, 4.24 light years from Earth,

Alpha Centauri A is a near twin of our Sun in almost every way, including age, while Alpha Centauri B is somewhat smaller and dimmer but still quite like the Sun. The third member, Proxima Centauri is a much smaller red dwarf star that travels around the A-B pair.

Proxima Centauri has three known planets: Proxima b, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone or so called “Goldilocks Zone” – not too hot and not too cold to support some form of life if it has a suitable atmosphere. Proxima c, a super-Earth, which is possibly surrounded by a huge ring system and Proxima d, which orbits very closely to the star.

Alpha Centauri A may have a Neptune-sized habitable-zone planet, though it is not yet known to be planetary in nature and could be an artifact of the discovery mechanism. Alpha Centauri B has no known planets.

If Mr. Musk will hurry with his secret warp drive project, I’m all packed up and ready for the ultimate DXpedition.

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This month’s meeting will be on June 14. The meeting will be done remotely as was last month’s meeting.

Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

Hope to “see” you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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ALERT NEWSLETTER – May 2022

Published 05/01/2022 | By WD4NYL

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well

This newsletter sets a milestone as we now have completed 15 years of publication.

I appreciate the support you have given me through these years, and I look forward to seeing where this journey leads us.

Remember, this is YOUR newsletter, and your input and articles are welcome and appreciated.

May your May be a happy one!

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Uh, what?

That was the reaction online recently by some meteorologists when the Storm Prediction Center issued Tornado Watch #159, covering Central Oklahoma.

In addition to the tornado threat, it was mentioned “isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely.” But what caught their eyes was a graphic that was circulated which contained the text “HAIL Scattered Hail Up To DVD Size Likely.”

DVD size?

The largest hail size reference I had heard of was “softball” size hail.

So, I did some research and per the NWS Syracuse Indiana Office there is indeed a DVD size Category.

Beaufort Wind Scale (Estimated wind speeds) (weather.gov)

Their Hail Size Comparison Scale is:

BB <.25 inches
Pea .25 inches
Dime 7/10 inches
Penny ¾ inches
Nickel 7/8 inches
Quarter 1 inch
Half Dollar 1¼ inches
Golf ball 1 ¾ inches
Billiard ball 2 1/8 inches
Tennis ball 2.5 inches
Baseball 2.75 inches
Softball 3.8 inches
CD/DVD 4.75 inches

There has always been a question as to “pea size”. Are referring to English peas, field peas, sweet peas, black-eyed peas and so forth.

Which is why locally we steer clear of “pea sized”. That, plus it is below the “severe” threshold.

Now in fairness to the Syracuse office, the Storm Reporting form on the Birmingham NWS site Submit a Storm Report (weather.gov) while varying the peas size report to range from .25 to .5 inches, also include Walnut size 1.5 inches, hen egg size 2.00 inches, teacup size 3.00 inches, grapefruit size 4 inches and “giant” size larger than 4.5 inches.

Going with the flow, I think we should expand the charts to include:

45 RPM Record 7 inches
Volleyball 8.15 – 8.39inches
Bowling ball 8.5 inches
Soccer ball (regulation) 8.5 – 9 inches
Basketball 9.4 inches
78 RPM Record 10 inches
33 ½ LP 12 Inches

How fast do hailstones fall?

Per the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory – NSSL: “For small hailstones (<1-inch in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 9 and 25 mph. For hailstones that one would typically see in a severe thunderstorm (1-inch to 1.75-inch in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 25 and 40 mph. In the strongest supercells that produce some of the largest hail one might expect to see (2-inches to 4-inches in diameter), the expected fall speed is between 44 and 72 mph. However, there is much uncertainty in these estimates due to variability in the hailstone’s shape, degree of melting, fall orientation, and the environmental conditions. However, it is possible for very large hailstones (diameters exceeding 4-inches) to fall at over 100 mph.”

The speed at which a hailstone (or rain) strikes the ground is referred to as “Terminal Velocity”.

Hailstones the size of DVDs hitting one’s noggin should be “terminal” enough.

Just go ahead and ship my saddle home.

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2022 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2022 tropical season, which runs from June 1 to November 30

Their forecast predicts an above average season with 19 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect 9 to become hurricanes and 4 to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

There is 71% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States.
There is 52% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the US East coast including the Florida Peninsula.
There is 46% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville Texas.

AccuWeather released its 2022 Atlantic hurricane forecast earlier. Their outlook also calls for an “above average season with 16 to 20 named storms. Of those storms, 7 to 8 are forecast to become hurricanes; and 4 to 6 are likely to hit the United States.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook on May 15.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season had 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes 4 of which were major. 8 hurricanes directly impacted the United States.

The forecasts just given both are calling for a season more severe than the 2021 season.

The 2022 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie & Walter.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2027. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. Which is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms of the past.

If so many storms occur that the 2022 list is depleted, the storm names will revert to the World Meteorological Organization supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

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2022 Tornado Totals As Of Mid-April

In the previous article I mentioned that a“ Normal” hurricane season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

But, what about tornadoes?

According to the Storm Prediction Center, the United States averages 1,251 tornadoes per year.

How is 2022 stacking up so far?

As of April 2 1, there had been 534 tornadoes reported in 23 states.

As of April 18, Alabama lead the nation in tornado warnings, with 115, Mississippi was second with 10 and Texas, which covers a lot of acreage, had 104 warnings.

As of April 18, Alabama was second in tornado watches covering a least one county in the state , with 46, just 3 behind Arkansas with 49, and ahead of Mississippi’s 42 watches.

As of April 21, central Alabama had had 39 confirmed tornadoes. The 2021 total was 47 for the entire year while the average number of tornadoes per year for the past 30 years is 27.

The most tornadoes that have touched down in Central Alabama in a year was in 2011, when 78 tornadoes hit the central part of the state, 29 being from the Super Outbreak of April 27.

We are already well above average, and 8 away from central Alabama’s last year’s total, and the late spring and fall tornado seasons have yet to occur.

Statewide tornado numbers as of mid-April 2022 are:

NWS Birmingham 39
NWS Huntsville 7
NWS Mobile 20
NWS Tallahassee 3
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Grand Total 69 Tornadoes

While the focus of late April tornadic activity has shifted to the Midwest, the Dixie Alley could refire, and the Fall season isn’t that for away.

Always keep a jaundiced eye towards the sky and stay aware of possible upcoming threats.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2021 there have been 27 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Aries.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +1,2 in Aries, is low in the west-northwest in the fading twilight.

He will soon be lost in the glow of the sunset and will pass between the Earth and the Sun or be in “Inferior Conjunction” on May 21.

Venus, magnitude -4.2 in Aquarius shines low in the east-southeast as dawn brightens, with Jupiter nearby.

Venus will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on May 15.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Taurus.

Mars, magnitude 0.9, in Aquarius, rises around 3:49 a.m. Start looking for Mars around 4:40a.m. as he clears trees and buildings.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 9.0, is in Taurus.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.1, in Pisces, rises around 4:27 a.m. and is low above the horizon around 5:20 a.m.

Saturn, magnitude +0.8, in Capricorn, rises around 3:06 a.m. Start looking for Saturn around 4:00 a.m. in the southeastern sky

Uranus, magnitude +5.9 in Aries, is hidden behind the glare of the Sun.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8 in Aquarius, though unobservable in the dawn glow, is in the background of Jupiter.

Four planets, Neptune, Jupiter, Venus, Mars and Saturn are arrayed across the predawn morning Sky. Four are visible, with Jupiter and Venus being bright “morning stars” and fainter Mars & Saturn trailing and slowly moving apart.

This is a great opportunity to see half the solar systems planets at a glance.