Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you safe and well as we bake and broil in this miserable heat. The good news is that in just a little over a month the heat and humidity will begin it’s retreat towards the tropical realms from whence it came and in about 6 months we will be griping and wishing we could borrow one of these days for a welcomed winter thaw.

Until then hug an air conditioner, remember to stay hydrated and don’t cook the doggy by walking him in this giant toaster oven that we find ourselves in.

Our next ALERT meeting will be on August 8, at the NWS Forecast Office in Calera, (which has good air conditioning).

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How Low Can You Go?

I have always loved radio and radio technology. One could say, with apologies to the streaming service, that “I heart radio”. My fond heartedness stretches almost as long as my interest in astronomy, which began at age 5, as I looked through my older sister’s science book and marveled at the pictures it contained.

Now and then I have heard, when speaking of radio receivers, of wishing that one had a radio reaching from “DC to Daylight.” And, while such a mythological beast does not yet exist, we edge closer and closer to it with each decade.

Current radio technology allows access from 3 Hz to 10 – 30 THz. At that 30 THz point there is a gap called the “Terahertz Gap” for which the practical technologies for generating and detecting the radiation in the electromagnetic spectrum from that point to the infrared light spectrum does not yet exist.

This realm is also considered the far infrared light spectrum, which stretches from roughly 300 GHz to 30 THz.

Above this is the mid infrared, from 30 GHz to 120 THZ and near infrared region from 120 THz to 400 THZ. Then we reach visible light, with red 400 to 480 THz, orange 480 to 510 THz, yellow 510 – 530 THz, green 530 – 600 THz, cyan 600 – 620 THz, blue 620 – 670 THz and violet 670 – 790 THz. Then comes ultraviolet, then x-ray and finally gamma ray radiation.

The main limiting factor that causes the Terahertz gap is, except for some experimental devices, the Earth’s atmosphere.

As the radio frequency increases above 30 GHz, the Earth’s atmospheric gases absorb increasing amounts of RF power, and the power of all radio waves decreases exponentially with distance from the transmitting antenna.

At 30 GHz, useful communication is limited to about around .6 miles or 1 km, and decreases as the frequency increases so that when you reach the realm 300 GHz, the radio waves are attenuated to zero within a few yards, so the atmosphere is essentially opaque to radio signals.

In the vacuum of space, this would not be a problem and perhaps some day these frequencies will be used by space explorers and outposts.

Meanwhile here on Earth, as technology progresses, the Terahertz Gap, is closing, and some day it will be overcome, just as the 200 meter radio frequency limit was.

100 years ago, the frequencies above 200 meters or 1.5 MHz or 1500 kHz we’re considered “useless” and hams were consigned to them to cure their propensity for interfering with marine and broadcast stations.

Then hams discovered that worldwide communications we’re possible on these useless higher frequencies and short wave radio was born.

But, that’s how high can you go and the question was how low you can really go on the radio dial?

Low frequency oscillations related to the Earth’s magnetosphere occur below 3 Hz, in the Ultra Low Frequency range or ULF.

Extreme Low Frequency range or ELF stretches from 3 to 30 Hz.

ELF signals can penetrate seawater and the attenuation of ELF waves is so low that they can travel completely around the Earth several times before significantly decaying, and waves radiated from a source in opposite directions circumnavigating the Earth on a great circle path will interfere with each other.

The lowest frequencies currently in use are in the SLF or Super Low Frequency realm from 30 HZ to 300 Hz and are used to signal submerged submarines.

At these low frequencies (which are commonly, if mistakenly referred to as ELF) the signal bandwidth is so very small that voice communications are not possible and only short, coded text messages at a very low data rate are possible. These messages are used to instruct submarines to rise to the surface to receive longer operational orders by ordinary radio or satellite communication.

The US Navy operated a system called Project ELF from 1989 to 2004 using two linked transmitters at Clam Lake Wisconsin & Republic Michigan.

The Clam Lake facility had two 14 mile transmission line antennas, called ground dipoles, in the shape of a cross, with the transmitting station at their intersection.

The Republic facility consisted of three transmission line antennas, two of which were 14 miles long and one 28 miles long in the shape of the letter “F”. The shape was not significant, but was dictated by land availability.

The system transmitted at 76 Hz, 16 Hz above the North American power line frequency, with an alternate capability at 45 Hz and used a combined power of 2.6 megawatts.

The system transmitted continuously, 24 hours a day, sending an “idle” message when it was not being used, so that submarines could verify they were within communication range.

The system was controversial, especially with environmentalists and protesters, who cut down the transmission line poles five times, briefly interrupting operations.

In 2004 the Navy shut down both transmitters, explaining that the Very Low Frequency, VLF, communication systems had improved to the point that the ELF system was unnecessary.

The lowest known confirmed manmade signal to be received is an experimental Russian signal for “geophysical applications” transmitted at 12 kHz on the Kola Peninsula southeast of Murmansk.

The Russian Navy currently uses a transmitter at 82 Hz called ZEUS to communicate with its submarines. The transmitter is 19 miles southeast of Murmansk on the Kola peninsula in northern Russia, and produces an estimated radiated power between 10 & 14 megawatts, which if accurate would make it the most powerful transmitter in Europe.

The Indian Navy operates an ELF transmitter at the INS Kattabomman Naval Base in Tamil Nadu to communicate with its Arihant & Akula Class submarines.

China recently built an ELF transmitter complex with an antenna said to be five times the size of New York City. It is thought to be in the Dabie Mountains, a protected reserve that spans the Hubei, Anhui and Henan Provinces, 620 miles south of Beijing. It’s antenna is in the shape of a cross 62 miles long and wide.

The frequency of the Indian and Chines transmitters is बेअत्स मे and 我不知道.

The lowest frequency stations I ever received were the now defunct US Omega navigation beacons on 10.2, 11.33 and 13.6 kHz and the still operational Russian Alpha beacons on 11.90 12.64 and 12.88 kHz.

The equipment I used was a Radio Shack DX-300 receiver (one of the few receivers that reach below 100 kHz), a homemade 80 turn loop antenna and an unbelievably long antenna strung back and forth along the top of a fence. Maybe 1,000 of wire. I also made a homebrew low pass filter to silence the interference from broadcast stations and crude tuner antenna tuner out of spare parts and poking and praying. The receiver could be coaxed down to 8 kHz.

Today there is a problem with modern receivers and VLF reception. I have a Yaesu FT-450 and a Kenwood TS-570D and while both will receive in the VLF range down to 30 kHz, both also kick in a 20 db attenuator when you go below 1.800 MHz, which effectively kills their ability to receive distant stations below 160 meters. On the other hand, my Yaesu FT-817 doesn’t have this attenuator, so you can still enjoy AM and VLF DXing, albeit only to 100 kHz.

The VLF world is a weird stretch of radio spectrum. There are natural signals you will occasionally hear including the “dawn chorus”. A sound appearing at dawn which resemble the sound of birds at dawn, the cause of which is a bunch of mumbo jumbo related to the electrons being injected into the Earth’s magnetosphere by solar storms.

You may also hear a “whistler”, which sounds like someone whistling to get your attention, caused by static or “sferics” from thunderstorms in the southern hemisphere following the lines of the Earth’s magnetic field from storms located at the same latitude and longitude in South America. Static from the Amazon, in our case.

As you go higher in frequency you will on occasion hear teletype from naval bases to submarines and other military users.

 

Notably at:

16.300 kHz VTX1 INS Kattabomman, India
16.300 kHz JXN Novik, Norway
17.000 kHz VTX2 INS Kattabomman, India
17.200 kHz SAQ Grimeton, Sweden
18.100 kHz RDL Russian Navy (location varies)
18.200 kHz VTX3 Kattabomman, India
18.300 kHz HWU Ronay, France
19.100 kHz HWU Ronay, France
19.200 kHz VTX4 Kattabomman, India
19.580 kHz GBZ Anthorn, UK
19.800 kHz NWC Exmouth, Australia
20.270 kHz ICV Isloa Di Tavolara, Italy
20.900 kHz FTASainte-Assise, France
21.400 kHz NPM Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
21.750 kHz HWU Ronay, France
22.100 kHz GQD Skelton, OK
22.200 kHz NDT Ebino, Japan
23.400 kHz DHO38 Rhauderfehn, Germany
22.600 kHz HWU Ronay, France
24.000 kHz NAA Cutler, Maine
24.800 kHz NLK Jim Creek, Washington
25.000 kHz —– Mokpo, South Korea
25.200 kHz NML La Moure, North Dakota
26.700 kHz TBB Bafa, Turkey
37.500 kHz NRK.TFK Grindavik, Iceland
40.000 kHz JJY40 Fukishima, Japan
40.400 kHz SRC Varberg, Sweden
40.800 kHz NAU Aguada, PR
45.900 kHz NSY Niscemi, Italy
49.000 kHz SXA Marathon, Greece
51.950 kHz GYW1 Crimond, UK
60.000 kHz WWVB Fort Collins Colorado
62.600 kHz FUG Le Regine, France
65.800 kHz FUE Kerlouan, France
68.500 kHz BPC Henan, Provence, China
73.600 kHz CFH Halifax, Canada
77.500 kHz DCF77 Mainflingen, Germany
81.000 kHz GYN2 Inskip, UK
100.00 kHz LORAN-C Navigation System

As with all radio signals, there are no guarantees you will hear any of the above just when you want to. Patience is the key.

Note that WWVB at 60 kHz is a non-voice digital signal, quite unlike WWV & WWVH. It is the signal used to synch clocks and other devices. It sounds like a carrier with “occasional “dit” sounds.

As to LORAN-C, in May 2009 the Obama Administration declared the system obsolete and announced plans to terminate it. Some countries opted to continue the system as a backup to the GPS, in case it was disabled, either due to natural causes or an act of war. Other countries dropped the system. So, you may or may not hear a thing. If you tune to 100 kHz and hear a sound like dice being shaken in a Yahtzee cup, you are hearing LORAN-C.

It is quite different from the ear shattering buzz saw sound of the old LORAN-A system that transmitted from 1850 – 1950 kHz covering most of the 160 meter ham band. The 160 meter ham band was a secondary allocation, LORAN-C was primary and hams we’re at reduced power and on a non-interfering basis.

I can clearly recall the sound – like a dozen giant cicadas droning in slow motion.

Thankfully for hams that ended in North America on December 31, 1980.

So, there you have the radio world from 0 to 100 kHz.

If you have the equipment, give it a try. You never know what you will hear!

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms forming off Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851 to 2022 there have been 402 Tropical Storms and 252 Hurricanes, 82 of which made landfall in the United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille, Katrina and Ida in 1969, 2005 and 2021, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida in 1992.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.4 degrees at the beginning of the month to 65.0 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 54 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:34 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Cancer, The Crab.

Mercury, magnitude -0.3 in Leo, The Lion, is lost in the glow of the Sun this August.

Venus, magnitude -4.6 in Leo, The Lion, is lost in the glow of the Sun. She will pass between the Sun and the Earth, or reach “Inferior Conjunction” on August 13.

She by months end she will reemerge into the morning sky rising around 4:30 AM, almost 2 hours before the Sun.

Earth, magnitude -4.0 as viewed from the Sun, and her Moon is in the constellation Capricornus, The Sea Goat.

Mars, magnitude +1.7, with his Moons Phobos and Deimos in Leo, The Lion, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.8, is in Virgo, The Virgin.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.3, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, in Aries, The Ram, is an early morning object, rising at the first of the month, around midnight and reaching 64° above the southeast horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks just before 6 AM.

By months end he rises around 11 PM and reaches 71° above the eastern horizon around 5 AM and fades into the dawn an hour later.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Aquarius, The Water Bearer,

He is a morning object, becoming visible around 10 PM and reaching his highest altitude of 45° above the southern horizon just after 2:30 AM, and fading from view at dawn.

He rises earlier and earlier as the month progresses and by months end he will rise at 8 PM and reach high highest point 44° above the southern horizon just after midnight and fades from view at sunrise.

He will reach peak brightness as he reaches “Opposition” or lies directly opposite of the Sun at 3 AM on August 27.

Uranus, magnitude +5.9, and his 27 moons and ring, in Aries, The Ram, has emerged from behind the sun and becomes visible half past midnight and reaches an altitude of 51° above the eastern horizon before fading into the dawn.

By month end he rises around 10:30 PM, reaching an altitude of 74° above the southern horizon before fading as dawn breaks.

Neptune, magnitude 7.7, and his 14 moons and ring, is in Pisces, The Fish, is a morning object becoming accessible using a telescope at midnight at an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon & reaching his highest point at 54° above the southern horizon around 4 AM and will only drop to 52° as twilight fades in.

By months end he will become accessible around 10 PM and will reach high highest point in the sky around 2 AM, 53° above the southern horizon, and finally disappearing from view three hours later in the twilight.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.4 in Sagittarius, The Archer.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.4 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team, shines faintly at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and Serpens the Snake.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus the Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus the Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius the Water Bearer.

Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus the River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, an asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is currently 12,405,728,855 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 29 minutes and 56.3561 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 10 months and 17 days is 14,872,856,766 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 10 minutes and 40 Seconds from Earth as of 2:13 PM, July 22, 2023, sailing 38,027 miles per hour through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,299,492 known asteroids as of July 22, per NASA.

5470 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 11, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

August’s Full Moon will occur August 1 at 1:33 PM or 18:33 UTC. August’s Full Moon was called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans.

This is the second of four Supermoons for 2023. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on August 1, when she will be 222,022 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur August 8 at 5:28 AM CDT or 10:28 UTC.

During the Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17 to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 12 and the morning of August 13.

The crescent moon should not be too much of a problem this year. Skies should still be dark enough for a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur at 4:39 AM CDT or 09:39 UTC on August 16. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 16, when she will be 252,671 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur August 24 at 4:57 AM CDT or 9:57 UTC.

On August 24 a rare event will occur as the Moon passes in front of the bright star Antares
in the constellation Scorpius.

This event, called an “Occultation” will be visible from the contiguous United States, Mexico and Canada.

The occultation will be visible from Birmingham beginning with the disappearance of Antares behind the Moon at 21:47 CDT or 02:47 UTC August 25 in the south-western sky at an altitude of 18.6°, and ends with the star’s reappearance at 22:37 CDT or 3:37 UTC August 24 at an altitude of 11.5 degrees.

The astronomical term “Occultation” is defined by Merriam-Webster as “Middle English occultacion, borrowed from Latin occultātiōn-, occultātiō “concealment, interruption of light from a celestial body,” from occultāre “to prevent from being seen, conceal, keep secret” + -tiōn- -tiō, suffix of verbal action”. It has nothing to do with the “occult” or any other type of witchy poo type of stuff.

Once in a blue moon you get a Blue Moon, one definition of which is “two full moons in a calendar month”.

On August 30 we will have a second Full Moon, which qualifies as a Blue Moon, which is also the third Supermoon of 2023.

This phase will occur 8:35 PM CDT or 01:35 UTC.

As with the Supermoon on August 1, the Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

NEWSFLASH!!!

“SMALL ASTEROID CAPTURED HOURS PRIOR TO EARTH IMPACT” says the various blurbs flashing on my laptop.

Hmmm….I thought. One could think that an inbound asteroid was intercepted and “captured” before impact. Some hyperdynamicthermofubbulator they’ve kept secret just grabbed hold of the sucker and captured it, saving the planet, one could conclude. If such technology suddenly appeared.

So, I naturally was curious.

On March 11, 2022, “Apollo Near-Earth Asteroid” 2022 EB5, a small 2 meter or 6.56 foot asteroid struck the Earth’s atmosphere at 11 miles per second and promptly disintegrated over the Arctic Ocean southwest of the Norwegian island Jan Mayen.

It produced a 4 kiloton fireball that was detected in Greenland and Norway and a bright flash was seen in Iceland.

So….it burned up in the atmosphere and did not “impact” the Earth.

It wasn’t exactly “captured” in the “grabbed the sucker” sense either.

Astronomer Krisztián Sárneczky at Konkoly Observatory’s Piszkéstető Station in Mátra Mountains, Hungary photographed the object about two hours before impact.

So, it was “captured” on film.

I guess “Asteroid photographed before burning up over Arctic” just isn’t dramatic enough.

Apollo Class Asteroids are a group of Near Earth, Earth orbit crossing asteroids named after 1862 Apollo, discovered by German astronomer Karl Reinmuth in the 1930s.

The largest of the 17,540 Apollos, is 1866 Sisyphus. A 4.35 mile rock which sport its own a tiny moon.

1866 Sisyphus is believed to be similar size to the Chicxulub object whose impact in the Yucatan is believed to have caused the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, including all non-avian dinosaurs, approximately 66 million years ago.

There are also other Earth orbit crossing asteroids, namely 2,445 Aten asteroids.

Other Near Earth Asteroids are the 30 odd Atira Class Asteroids, which orbit just inside the Earth’s orbit and the 11,232 Amor Class Asteroids, which orbit just beyond the Earth’s orbit.

“It’s not safe out here. It’s wondrous, with treasures to satiate desires both subtle and gross. But it’s not for the timid.” – Q, Star Trek The Next Generation

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Special thanks to Lucy The Kitten who has “helped” me typ32hjbvvvvv344444 444444444444444444444e this.

This month’s meeting will be on August 8 at 7PM at the NWS Forecast Office in Calera.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi everyone & an early Happy 4th of July!

I hope you are staying cool and hydrated as the heat of Summer has arrived.

That time of the year has arrived when one dusts off the wallet and shoos away the moths.

Yes the time for ALERT dues has arrived.

To maintain roster records, according to ALERT’s constitution and bylaws, members who have not paid their 2023/2024 dues (which are due on July 2023’s meeting date, per Article IV), will be removed from the roster. After this point, these members may re-apply.

Members who are not current/in good standing may be ineligible for Callouts, NWSchat access, officer positions and the right to vote in the monthly meetings.

In special cases/hardship, members may submit a confidential request to be considered by the board. Such a request will be kept ultra-hush-hush, and can be brought to any board member: (Currently Mark Wells, Russell Thomas, Roger Parsons, Johnnie Knobloch & Casey Benefield).

More on dues, including payment address, can be found in the ALERT Bylaws, on the ALERT-Alabama.org website under Join/Documents.

Join ALERT/Documents

The direct link to the application can be found at https://alert-alabama.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Documents/alertapp.pdf

Existing members who are renewing can also use PayPal option via billrodgers1973@gmail.com

Also, if anyone would rather use Venmo, route it via @William-Rodgers-73

Until next month, everyone stay safe!

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Reader Feedback

On occasion I receive feedback from our readers. I appreciate the kind words and suggestions I receive, as everyone needs positive affirmation now and then, and because it confirms that someone is actually reading this rag.

Various comments I have heard along the way are “it’s long, that’s for sure” and “the almanac is my favorite part”, both points I agree with, by the way.

I enjoy researching the almanac and I can be long winded and run off at the keyboard at times.

Occasional questions are posed, and I wish to answer a couple of them.

How Hurricane Outlooks Are Made

In the May & June ALERT newsletters I shared the 2023 Hurricane Outlooks issued by Colorado State University, Accuweather & NOAA.

A reader asked the question “How are these outlooks made?”

First I’ll mention that these “outlooks” are not “landfall forecasts”. Using NOAA as an example, NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions, for hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall. Such precision is an impossibility. There are simply too many variables involved.

The outlook which is issued is a probabilistic outlook of the “likely” ranges of activity that has a “certain likelihood of occurring” given the hints, clues and conditions that are being observed or are climatologically trending towards.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons based on previous seasons with similar climate conditions factoring in uncertainties.

They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years, but the most likely and logical, with the realization that Mother Nature can be a cantankerous old heifer, throwing a monkey wrench into the works.

When looking at the various, often conflicting factors, the first thing forecasters look at is the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Do they see a La Niña, El Niño or neither?

During La Niña, the interaction between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above cause strong winds to push the warm water at the ocean’s surface westward from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, colder deeper water rises to the surface near the coast of South America. This makes the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator a 4° to 6° F below average.

This small change in the ocean’s temperature can affect weather all over the world.

Rain clouds normally form over warm ocean water. La Niña blows this warm water to the western Pacific. This means that places like Indonesia and Australia can get much more rain than usual. However, the cold water in the eastern Pacific causes less rain clouds to form on the eastern side of the Pacific.

La Niña can help shift the track of the jet stream and consequently how storm systems move across the continental United States.

While wetter than average conditions develop across portions of the northern U.S, namely the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska, the
subtropical jet stream shifts to the north, moving the storm tracks to northern Alabama and Georgia, increasing the likelihood of tornadoes and severe weather, while leaving Florida sunnier and drier than usual.

In the tropics La Niña causes stronger vertical wind shear which suppresses hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific, while in tropical Atlantic weaker wind shear and trade winds and greater atmospheric instability enhances tropical activity.

When La Niña’s mischievous bother, El Niño appears, the effects are opposite, bringing ocean temperatures of 4° to 6° F above average between the International Date Line and the west coast of South America.

Atmospheric pressure increases near Indonesia and in the western Pacific and decreases in the eastern Pacific. Pressure changes lead to the subtropical jet stream moving into Florida, southern Georgia, and Alabama, steering cloudy, rain-bearing systems into the region in winter and an increasing likelihood of tornadoes and severe weather in the Florida peninsula.

In the tropics El Niño causes weaker vertical wind shear which enhances hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific, while in tropical Atlantic stronger vertical wind shear and trade winds and greater atmospheric stability suppresses hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic.

La Niña can last 1 to 3 years, while El Niño lasts no more than 1 year.

During the past three hurricane seasons we have seen La Niña, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center give a 93% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, with fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

So, based on this alone we should have a fairly docile season.

But there is a hitch – the Atlantic Ocean is warm. Very warm, which could lessen or counteract the effect of El Niño.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach roughly 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. Much of the Atlantic basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

The deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

Currently temperatures closely resemble those prior to the active 2020 hurricane season, one of the most active hurricane seasons on record with nearly every community in the coastal United States experiencing the effects of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Will the warmer temperatures defeat El Niño? Only time will tell.

Other uncertainties include the fact that predicting these El Niño and La Niña events, also called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO is an inexact science, with skills that are continuously evolving. This skill is limited, as is the skill of predicting sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, atmospheric stability, and other factors known to influence overall seasonal hurricane activity.

So, the outlooks by NOAA and others are a balance of competing factors, based on, to quote NOAA:

“These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model.”

It’s a best guess, with the best information and interpretation that science currently provides.

While we are delving in alphabet soup, let me lay this on you.

Recently on social media two nets we’re advertised.

The World Wide Ragchew Amateur Radio Net (10 PM CDT) and the methods of joining this net was given as follows:

Allstar node 525963 ( asl image)
Echolink conference server WWARG
Echolink node 561802=W1SBW-L
D.M.R Tg 3150174 colour code 1 slot 2 brandmeister network
Fusion: Reflector# is 21096-Reflector name US-WWRAR
Mode M17, Host M17-WWR, Module “D”
Peanut app channel “WWRARN”
Teamspeak/irnserver users please Goto Amateur Radio Ragchew Net
Zello https://zello.page/QFoFzdqGnrfpDgey9 *** once you have been trusted in ***

And…

The Southeast Tag Multimode Net (6:30 PM CDT), with the methods of joining this net given as follows:

Allstar: LMARC Node 510131 Southeast Link Bridge System
DMR Brandmeister Network: TG 314722
DMR QRM Network: TG 43389
DMR TGIF Network: TG 43389
DMR+: TG 323 on server IPSC2-QuadNet
DStar: XRF/XLX/DCS 913-D
Echolink: Node N4LMC-L 94680 Southeast Link Bridge System
FCS Reflector: Southeast Link FCS002-89 and FCS003-89
HamShack Hotline: extension #12560
Hams Over IP: extension #15012
M17: M17 reflector M17-SEL D
NXDN: 43389 Southeast Link
P25: 43389 Southeast Link
Wires-X: Southeast Link, Room 43389
YCS Reflector: YCS310, Room 36 (FCS31036 / DG-ID 36)
YSF Reflector: 43389 US-Southeast Link

Both of these postings have something in common. Namely I don’t have a solitary clue as to what they are talking about or how to participate.

One of the suggestions I have received, and I think it is a good one, especially since ALERT utilizes some of these modes, is to explain how these modes work.

Here is the problem. I am an old goat.

I can click a Morse code key and press microphone push to talk connected to a radio, which uses an antenna that could easily pass for a clothesline. And, if I am lucky, some hapless fool somewhere on the globe will hear my anemic signal drifting in somewhere in the static.

As for the modes mentioned above, I am clueless.

So, if you happen to understand any of the gibberish I have just typed, help us out by writing a plain English article explaining all this gobbledygook for old goats like me, for whom Google has not been our friend.

What are these modes? How do they work? Which ones are popular locally?
What resources and equipment does one need? Are they worth the effort and expense?

Your input will be appreciated by inquiring goats, both old and new, who really do want to know.

Thanks!

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss must walk with bare paws, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS, such as Frank Makosky and J.B Elliott used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

July Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

From 1851 to 2022 there have been 130 Tropical Storms and 61 Hurricanes, 29 of which made landfall in the United States.

Among notable storms are 2005’s Hurricane Emily, the only Category 5 storm to form in July, reaching 160 MPH and striking Mexico.

Hurricane Bertha, a 125 MPH storm holds the record for the longest lifespan for a July hurricane, churning for 17 days.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon decreases from 79.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 74.7 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 14 hours 20 minutes on July 1 to 13 hours 49 minutes on July 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

July 1 Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
July 15 Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM
July 31 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:48 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Gemini.

At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude -1.6 in Taurus, The Bull, is lost in the glow of the Sun.

Venus, the brilliant “Evening Star, shines at magnitude -4.6 in Leo, The Lion, dominates the evening sky rising a little after 8:00 PM, 25° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness and setting around 10:20 PM.

As the month progresses she will sink lower and lower each night until finally disappearing from the night sky on the 25th.

Venus will pass 3.6° north of Mars, or be in a “quasi-conjunction”, on July 1, at 2:48 AM or 06:48
UTC.

If two planets come to within 5° or less of one another but, don’t actually pass each other, (which is a conjunction) it’s called a “quasi-conjunction”.

In this case he two worlds won’t pass each other, but, will approach each other and then as the weeks go by slowly drift apart,

For perspective, a Full Moon is 0.5° wide, so they will be 7 Full Moons apart.

She will pass 1.7° South of the star Regulus on Leo on July 16.

In a telescope she is a brilliant thin crescent.

Earth, magnitude -4.0 as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Sagittarius, The Archer.

Earth will reach her farthest distance from the Sun or Aphelion on July 6 at 3:06 PM CDT or 20:06
UTC, when the distance from the Sun’s center to Earth’s center will be 94,506,364 miles from our home star, as she and the Moon wobble through space, the Moon tugging on the Earth like an unruly pup on a leash.

Mars, magnitude +0.7, with his Moons Phobos and Deimos are in Leo, The Lion, is an early evening object, becoming visible just before 9:00 PM, 21° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness and setting around 10:40 PM.

Like Venus, as the month progresses he will sink lower and lower each night finally disappearing from the night sky on the 22nd.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.5, is in Virgo, The Virgin.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.2, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring, is in Aries, The Ram, riseing in the early morning sky around 2:00 AM, 40° above the eastern horizon, 3 hours and 40 minutes before the Sun, and fading from view at sunrise.

He gains altitude each night and rising ever earlier and by the end of the month rises a little after 1:00 AM, when he will be 64° above the south-eastern horizon, fading from view at dawn.

Saturn, magnitude +0.8, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, is in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, as a morning object. He becomes visible around midnight, low in the eastern sky, 11°, and reaches his highest point in the sky just before 5:00 AM, 45° above the southern horizon, just before fading into the dawn.

As the month progresses he will rise earlier and earlier and by months end will rise just after 10:00 PM and reaching his highest point in the sky just before 3:00 AM, 45° above the southern horizon and fades from view at sunrise.

Uranus, magnitude +5.9, and his 27 moons and ring, in Aries, The Ram, has emerged from behind the sun and rises 2:20 AM, 3 hours before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 22° above the eastern horizon before fading from view at dawn.

By months end he will rise just after midnight and reach an altitude of 50° above the eastern horizon before fading into the dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, and his 14 moons and ring, is in Pisces, The Fish, having emerged from behind the Sun, and is a morning object rising at midnight and reaching an altitude of 41° above the south-eastern horizon before fading into the dawn.

By months end he will becomes visible (in telescopes) around midnight and reaches his highest altitude of 54° a little after 4:00AM and then fades into the dawn,

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.4 in Capricorn, the Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.4 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team. faintly shines at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and Serpens the Snake.
50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus the Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.9 in Taurus the Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius the Water Bearer.

Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus the River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, and asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is 12,246,241,135 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 15 minutes and 40.1951 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 9 months and 19 days is 14,830,405,205 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 6 minutes and 52 Seconds from Earth as of 7:46 PM, June 24, sailing through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,298,061 known asteroids as of June24, per NASA.

5445 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 14, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 3 at 6:40 AM CDT or 11:40 UTC, when the Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated.

July’s Full Moon is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

This is also the first of four supermoons for 2023. The Moon will be near its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on July 4, when she will be 223,787 miles from Earth.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur July 9 at 8:47 PM CDT or 1:47 UTC on July 10.

During the Quarter Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

New Moon, when the Moon is located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. will occur July 17 at 1:31 AM or 18:33 UTC.

This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on July 20, when she will be 252,457 miles from Earth.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur July 25 at 5:06 PM CDT or 22:06 UTC.

Though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comet Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour.

The nearly full moon will block most of the fainter meteors this year. But if you are patient, you may still be able to catch a few good ones.

Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

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This month’s meeting will be on July 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport,

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well as we ease into summer!

May has been unusual, to me at least, as it’s the first May I remember where I had to turn a heater on. Of course, it may be because the more ancient I get, the colder I get.

I was originally supposed to be born on a tropical island. Unfortunately, the stork had navigational issues and I ended up in Birmingham instead. Fortunately, it was Birmingham Alabama, rather than Birmingham Michigan.

I am ready for warmth & mosquitoes. Horseflies and fireflies, which we always called “lightning bugs.”

I don’t mind sweating a gallon or two. That’s what water is for.

Here’s wishing you a happy and safe summer!

 

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2023-2024 officers for ALERT!
By
Casey Benefield NZ2O

We have quite a diverse and strong array of skills within ALERT, serving the NWS and amateur radio’s link to the NWS!

• President: Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX Johnnie is active in the amateur radio community, wearing quite a few hats! He’s currently serving as our Alabama ARES Assistant Section Manager, LDS Emergency Coordinator, and Vice President of the Central AL chapter of the National Weather Association.
• Vice President: Casey Benefield, NZ2O Lauren has stepped down as VP, as her activity with SSFD has/will only increase. Casey is back as VP for this term. Primary activities with ALERT will continue to include the background technical side. You can find Casey on LinkedIn most of the time, or via email, callsign at ALERT-Alabama.org.
• Treasurer & Membership: Bill Rodgers, K4FSO Bill continues as treasurer into this term. Bill is also quite active in amateur radio by day, and IT Systems Engineer by night (or the other way around, depending on the week)! He’s one of the guys that set up amateur radio, allowing middle school students talk to astronauts on the International Space Station, among other projects.
• Secretary: Justin Glass, N0ZO Justin continues as secretary into this term. Justin is a VE for Laurel VEC, administering free amateur radio license exams, with Central AL ARC. His mobile amateur radio setups are quite nice, and I’m starting to think of him as a master of remote control and IoT (Internet of Things).
• NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas, KV4S Russell continues as NWS Liaison and Station Trustee. Russell has brought us much greater digital amateur radio integration, such as bridging DMR, Echolink, AllStar, D-Star (XRF), in an effort to make it easier for areas not reachable via VHF/UHF to connect with ALERT and K4NWS (National Weather Service Birmingham). He is instrumental with experimenting with technologies that may aid ALERT in its mission to get ground-truth severe weather reports to NWS, as well as liaising with other regional Skywarn groups, as we work together to cover edge counties.
• Public Information/Training: Casey Benefield, NZ2O Casey likes anything having to do with data and technology.
• Board Members: Dale Chambers, KD4QHZ; Mark Wells, WD4NYL; Casey Benefield, NZ2O; Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX; Russell Thomas, KV4S

Duties for Officers:
• President Appoints the nominating committee of 2 members in March for next election. Presides/conducts all meetings. Votes only in case of tie at regular meetings. Secures meeting space for meetings. Appoints committees for specific tasks, be a member of committees. Appoints non-elected officers: Operations, Public Information, Training.
• Vice President In event that the President is unable to perform duties of office, the VP steps in to perform the duties in absence, and if necessary becomes President and holds office for the remainder of the term.
• Treasurer & Membership Receives all monies, and maintains accurate record of all receipts and expenditures. Reports activities and treasury status at each monthly meeting, including regular/emergency expenditures. Maintains member roster and collects dues, notifies members of dues becoming due.
• Secretary Maintains the official minutes of meetings of ALERT. Maintains copies of bylaws and keeps a record of all changes to the bylaws. In the event of the President and VP becoming unable to fulfill the office of President, the Secretary would hold the office for the remainder of the term or until a special election can be held to fill the vacancy
• NWS Liaison Serve as the official contact person between ALERT and the NWS for issues/changes in radio operations that need to be addressed by ALERT/NWS. Keeps and updates the official callout lists and schedule. Upon NWS request, issues call-outs to the NWS, coordinates the response/shifts. If needed, contact responders and remind them of scheduling. Provides NWS with a ‘callout tree’ of personnel who may initiate callouts, in the even the liaison officer is unavailable
• Operations (Appointed by President) Resolves any communications problems outside the NWS (repeater, link trouble). This officer has charge over ALERT-owned computer and communication equipment, with leeway to modify, repair, augment or enhance ALERT’s capabilities as he sees fit. The Operations and NWS Liaison Officers shall work to keep the training officer informed of any new procedures and equipment, to keep members updated.
• Training (Appointed by President) Maintain and update the procedures manual for operations at the National Weather Service. Provide workshops at the NWS to all Operational Members of ALERT, intended to provide hands-on training in the operations of the K4NWS station Amateur Radio and computer equipment. As new equipment and technology is adopted, the training officer shall provide update briefings or trainings to members to keep them aware of the changes.
• Public Information (Appointed by President) Be a liaison between ALERT and news organizations. Currently, this includes web/social media engagements, as our involvement with the news is somewhat limited. Hamfests and contact with other radio clubs is often a part of the position.
• Board of Directors Appoints or continues the trustee of the K4NWS callsign. The board of directors reviews challenges to membership approval, member standing, discipline, constitutional amendments submitted to the board (to present to membership), hardship review for dues, and conducts any other ALERT business not delegated otherwise in the bylaws. Meetings are held every June, September, December, March, or any time the President calls a special session. *Board meetings, except for executive session, are open to ALERT’s voting membership. The board is composed of President, Immediate Past President, Station Trustee, A two year term at-large member, a one year term at-large member, appointed by Presidents. Terms can be consecutive.

 

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm, began issuing outlooks on May 15.

The first subtropical cyclone of 2023 has already occurred, though it wasn’t known at the time of its existence.

The National Hurricane Center in its normal process of re-assessing weather systems has determined that an area of low pressure which formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in mid-January should have been designated as a subtropical storm.

This storm has been designated as AL012023. The next system will be designated as AL022023.

If the system begins as a tropical depression, then it would be given the designation “Tropical Depression Two”, and if it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Arlene.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. NOAA predicts a likely range of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 19 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

As mentioned last month, both Colorado State University and Accuweather are also predicting “normal” seasons.

NOAA scientists expect El Nino conditions to develop, which tend to suppress Atlantic activity. However, there is the possibility that this could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, including the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and enhanced sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean which provides more energy to fuel storm development.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

With the 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

This has become an annual tradition, this is the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see, and it grows a little longer year by year.

The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.

While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.

I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.

2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 5:30PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

What harm was done? You might ask.

First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment can keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.

So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models

Satellite imagery? We’ve got it!

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
HurricaneZone.net – Tropical Cyclone HQ™
Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page
Sector Images: Gulf of Mexico – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Caribbean – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: U.S. Atlantic Coast – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Tropical Atlantic – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Radar Sites? Try these!

Barbadoes Radar
Weather Radar: Barbados – meteoblue

Cuba Radar
Tiempo Actual, Red de Radares Meteorológicos de Cuba (insmet.cu)

Leeward Islands – Guadeloupe & Martinique Radar
ANIMATION SATELLITE et RADAR de PRECIPITATION par Météo-France (meteofrance.gp)

Mexico Radar
Live Weather Radar – Mexico | RainViewer

Puerto Rico Radar
NWS Radar (weather.gov)

United States Dual Pol Radar
COD NEXRAD: LOT

(Note that the COD site will default to Illinois. Chose the radar site you want from the radar site map on the upper right side of the screen. To find the map look for the first icon under “NEXRAD Base Reflectivity & click the icon. A map of the US with every NEXRAD site in the continental US, Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico.

For the most reliable storm information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.

The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.

Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.

Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources. Don’t just believe everything you read. Even if you agree with it or want it to be true. And, that applies to a very wide spectrum of subjects, as you cruise down the Disinformation Superhighway.

Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources, no matter how flashy or how convincingly it may be presented. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.

That includes my wise weather prognostications also.

Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that King Charles is a shape shifting lizard dude. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the King, it is still yet unproven.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.

The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.

Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.

Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.

The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.

A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.

El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.

Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.

The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.

The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.

2021 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2021 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.

Some other hurricane facts are:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

Air pollution or the lack thereof can influence tropical activity. NOAA has found that a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the U.S. is linked to a 33% increase in Atlantic storm formation in the past couple decades, while the opposite is happening in the Pacific with more pollution and fewer typhoons. Less pollution lets more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and vice versa.

Saharan sand blown across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will limit tropical development by blocking sunlight. This is a common occurrence which happens every spring and summer.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.

The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/,
you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.

The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 5 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.

If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.

One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.

The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.

It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.

The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.

Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7

This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

From 1851 to 2022 there have been 99 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.

 

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM

Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus.

Mercury, magnitude +0.5 in Aries the Ram, is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise.

Venus, magnitude -4.4 in Gemini the Twins, is near her highest altitude above the western horizon, which she will reach on June 4.

She becomes visible just after 8;00 PM, 34° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting a little after 11 PM.

In a telescope Venus is a dazzling half-Moon shape, about 50% sunlit. She gets larger each day while waning in phase. It will become a bigger, thinning crescent dropping lower from mid-June through mid-July.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Sagittarius The Archer.

Mars, magnitude +0.6 in Cancer the Crab, is an early evening object, becoming visible around 8:30 PM, 36° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He will then sink towards the horizon, setting just before midnight.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.1, is in Virgo the Virgin.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, in Aries the Ram, recently passed behind the Sun at solar conjunction and is now visible in the predawn sky rising two hours before the Sun, around 3:30 AM, reaching an altitude of 19° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Saturn, magnitude +0.9, in Aquarius the Water Bearer, is emerging from behind the Sun, and is visible in the morning sky, rising just after 1 AM and reaching an altitude of 39° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Uranus, 5.9 in Aries the Ram, is lost in the glare of the Sun,

Neptune, 7.8 magnitude in Pisces the Fish, rises 3 hours and 39 minutes before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 28° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.

Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.4 in Capricorn, the Sea Goat.

Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.3 in Bootes the Herdsman

Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team. faintly shines at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.

Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.

Discovered January 5, 2005, Eris was initially labeled by NASA as the “Tenth Planet” and was temporarily named “Xena” after TV’s “Xena The Warrior Princess” and her moon “Gabrielle”, after Xena’s sidekick.

But, since planets and dwarf planets are named for mythological characters and not TV characters, this world was officially dubbed “Eris” the Greek goddess of strife and discord.
The name was proposed by the Caltech team on September 6, 2006, and it was assigned on September 13, 2006.

I preferred “Xena”, but they forgot to ask for my valuable input.

They need one named “Buffy” for “Buffy The Vampire Slayer” also. For back in the day The Slayer rocked.

At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.

90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and Serpens the Snake.

50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus the Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus the Bull.

225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius the Water Bearer.

Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus the River.

Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, and asteroid unofficially called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.

FarFarOut is 12,246,241,135 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 15 minutes and 40.1951 seconds from Earth.

The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 8 months and 24 days is 14,805,058,006 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 4 minutes and 36 Seconds from Earth as of 6:38 PM, May 29, sailing through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

There are 1,284,260 known asteroids as of May 29, per NASA.

5419 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 16, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 3 at 10:43 CDT or 03:43 UTC on June 4. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” and “Honey Moon”.

During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 6 at 226,713 Miles.

Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 20 at 2:41 PM CDT or 7:41 UTC on June 10.

New Moon will occur June 17 at 11:38 PM CDT or 04:38 UTC on June 18. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

Summer Solstice will occur at 9:51 AM CDT or 14:51 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 22 at 251,865 Miles.

First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 26 at 2:50 AM or 7:50 UTC.

During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

The First Quarter moon will block out some of the faintest meteors with this unpredictable shower, but if you are patient, you should be able to catch quite a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight.

Around 10 PM in mid-June, Libra the Scales will be passing due South. When Alpha Librae, the lower-right of the two brightest stars of Libra, is due south, if you look directly below it you will see nothing but horizon. But, if you were at a lower latitude, say 29°, the latitude of Orlando, or points south would see our brilliant, -0.27 magnitude neighbor Alpha Centauri above the horizon.

At 4.37 light years distance, the Alpha Centauri system is nearest star system to our own.

It is a triple star consisting of Alpha Centauri A, also called Rigil Kentaurus, Alpha Centauri B or Toliman and the closest star to the Sun, Alpha Centauri C also called Proxima Centauri, 4.24 light years from Earth,

Alpha Centauri A is a near twin of our Sun in almost every way, including age, while Alpha Centauri B is somewhat smaller and dimmer but still quite like the Sun. The third member, Proxima Centauri is a much smaller red dwarf star that travels around the A-B pair.

Proxima Centauri has three known planets: Proxima b, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone or so called “Goldilocks Zone” – not too hot and not too cold to support some form of life if it has a suitable atmosphere. Proxima c, a super-Earth, which is possibly surrounded by a huge ring system and Proxima d, which orbits very closely to the star.

Alpha Centauri A may have a Neptune-sized habitable-zone planet, though it is not yet known to be planetary in nature and could be an artifact of the discovery mechanism. Alpha Centauri B has no known planets.

 

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This month’s meeting will be on June 13.

The meeting will be held at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Calera and remotely as was last month’s meeting. Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.

I hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi Everyone, and welcome to the 191 st Alert Newsletter!
I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these cool spring days.
Our May 9 ALERT meeting will feature our annual elections.
These will be the first elections since life was disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Positions to be decided are President, Vice President, Treasurer/Membership, Secretary and NWS
Liaison/K4NWS Station Trustee.
Those recommended by the Nominating Committee and any nominations from the floor (made by
a current ALERT Operational Member) and any volunteers for those positions will be voted on by
secret ballot, or acclamation if no other nominations exist from the floor.
If you are a paid up Operational Member or Supporting Member, which is a member interested in
Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license, you
may vote in the 2023-2024 ALERT leadership elections.
The positions of Public Information Officer and the non-permanent 1 two year and 2 one year
Board of Directors positions will be appointed by the incoming President.
The Editor of the Newsletter isn’t mentioned in the Bylaws and is merely a voluntary “labor of
love” of which I have been overseeing since 2007. And, not hearing any volunteers clawing at the
doors to take over, I will probably (pending Presidential approval) continue onward and upward to
infinity and beyond.
The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting.
July is also when ALERT dues are due. Remember, if you wish to respond to ALERT callouts or
serve as an officer you MUST be current with your dues.
May your May be a happy one!

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2023 Hurricane Outlooks

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2023 tropical season, which runs from
June 1 to November 30.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf
Their forecast predicts a near average season with 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane
season. Of those, researchers expect 6 to become hurricanes and 2 to reach major hurricane
strength of Category 3 or greater, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
There is 44% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the United States.
There is 22% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the US East coast including the
Florida Peninsula.
There is 28% chance for at least one major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast from the Florida
Panhandle to Brownsville Texas.
AccuWeather’s 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook also calls for an “near average” season with 11 to
15 named storms. Of those storms, 4 to 8 are forecast to become hurricanes, 1 to 4 being major
hurricanes and 2 to 4 hurricanes are likely to hit the United States.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-
forecast/1503557
The National Hurricane Center will issue their outlook on May 25.
A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, after “above average” predictions, ended up being a near
“average season” with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes 2 of which were major.
Despite it being a near average season, it became one of the costliest Atlantic seasons due to the
impact of Hurricane Ian, which struck Florida on September 28 th . Ian was the strongest hurricane
to hit Florida since Michael in 2018, following the exact path of Hurricane Charley in 2004.
This year El Nino conditions are forecast to return this summer around the peak of hurricane
season, which would be the first time since 2018 and 2019. El Niño leads to stronger upper level
winds, or wind shear, in the Atlantic, which is less favorable for tropical development.
The 2023 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily,
Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Phillippe, Rina, Sean,
Tammy, Vince & Whitney.
Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2027. Only names
of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. Which is why you will never have another
Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well
storms of the past.
If so many storms occur that the 2023 list is depleted, the storm names will revert to the World
Meteorological Organization supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn,
Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin,
Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.
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The Mysterious World Of Unlicensed Radios

The Christmas of 1966, when I was 8 years old, I was given a pair of General Electric walkie
talkies. These sets operated on CB Channel 14. While being crystal controlled for transmit, they
had very wide open receivers, receiving anything in or near the 11 Meter band, because they were
basically junk.
My friends and I played with them for a season, talking house to house, fencing with the 3 foot
long antennas, or 3 feet until we broke them trying to put each other’s eyes out and finally lay
these sets aside and moved on to other things.
During the brief time we used them, I only heard one other station beside ours come through the
ether, some guy who called himself “the Georgia Bulldog”, which seemed odd.
Ten years later, in 1976, I found one of the pair in the closet and out of curiosity, I plopped a in 9
volt battery and thought the receiver must have been shot, as there were dozens upon dozens of
people doubling, tripling, quadrupling, cussing and screeching on top of each other.
The CB Boom was booming.
A few months later my everyone in my family would have a CB radio. I would talk to my sister as
she drove to work at night to make sure she arrived safely and I talked many people as I ploughed
through the noise with my puny, but fun station.
Two factors worked to make the CB Boom the disaster that it proved to be. One being that it was
the fad of the day which suddenly plopped two million people into 23 channels, soon to be
increased to 40. The second factor was that the boom hit just as Solar Cycle 21 was heading
towards its peak. So not only did you have to deal with the local free for all, but you also had a
few hundred thousand intimate friends from California dumping in on you via the ionosphere as
well.
Why the FCC created a service meant for local communications in a DX band is still hard to
comprehend.
In 1977, to help relieve overcrowding and to give little walkie talkies half of a chance, the FCC
created 5 channels for “toy” walkie talkies just beneath the 6 meter ham band on 49.830, 49.845,
49.860, 49.875 and 49.890 MHz. 49.860 being the most used commonly frequency.
These new $7.95 100 mw units touted “up to ¼ mile range” and the “toy” Channel 14 units were
phased out and no longer sold after 1978, although a few not dubbed “toys” continued for a while.
Curious as to what activity I might hear, I got a 49 MHz walkie talkie and I never heard another set
drift in. But, I heard something else, quite by accident.
As it turned, out these frequencies were also shared with cordless telephone handset channels 6,
2, 3, 5 & 7, in that order. The base units were in the 46 MHz range. They also shared frequencies
with the older cordless phone base channels 06A, 13A,19A, 25A & 27A, whose handsets were just
below and slightly within the 160 meter ham band in the 1.695 – 1.825 MHz range. Then I
accidently found that baby monitors also used the same 5 channels.
So, quite by accident, I found that basically half my neighborhood had “bugged” itself . And,
Good Lord in Heaven the things I heard!
Now this was before the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 made it illegal to listen to
certain forms of communications. But, even after this act became effective, the FCC said “The
FCC and the Communications Act do not forbid certain types of interception and disclosure of

radio communications, including: Mere interception of radio communications, such as
overhearing your neighbor’s conversations over a cordless phone…” so, I wasn’t breaking the law
listening. And listen I did. It was kind of hard not to.
Exactly what I heard, I will never say, but suffice it to say that The Young & Restless had nothing
on some of those little old ladies that kept drifting in. Just because they were in their 80’s didn’t
mean they weren’t messy little biddies with “secrets”. I won’t even hint at what I heard, as this is a
family friendly forum, except to say, “People, people, people….Good Lord above”.
But that was decades ago as a teenager, and in a totally different neighborhood than I live in now.
And, though there might be some units still using the 49 MHz range, most are in the 900 MHz, 1.9
GHz and 2.4 GHz range.
I don’t know if anyone in my neighborhood uses 49 MHz devices. I’m not sure I really want to
know either. I sort of wish I hadn’t heard what I heard back then. Sometimes ignorance truly is
bliss.
Incidentally, in the early days of cellphones, during the 1G-Analog cellular days, before the
Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 made it illegal to do, if you had an older TV whose
tuner went to Channel 83 and tuned carefully in those unused upper UHF TV channels you could
eaves drop on cellphone calls. Most of the traffic was mundane “pick up a loaf of bread” type
conversations, some tended to be pornographic and a very significant percentage of calls you
heard were clearly drug trafficking related.
Everything is now digital and encrypted, so drug dealers can feel safe, and by law scanners and
broadband receivers have the cellular frequencies, 824 – 849 & 869 – 894 MHz blocked.
The 49 MHz band is still available for unlicensed devices and may still be used, but it’s not the
only license free band.
In the March 2019 Newsletter Article we covered “Non-Amateur Radio Options For Emergency
Preparedness” and mentioned the license free or “licensed by rule”, (whatever that means)
services, the Family Radio Service – FRS, Multi User Radio Service – MURS and Citizens Band
aka CB.
The Class D Citizens Radio Service aka Citizen Band or just plain CB we are fairly familiar with.
Channel 19 is the Highway Channel (except in California and the West Coast, where Channel 19 is
for east-west traffic and Channel 17 is for north-south traffic). Channel 9 in the US is reserved for
emergencies, and sometimes is sporadically monitored in some locations, but not to be depended
on, since you can’t assume anyone is actually listening. Often, during band openings you will
hear Spanish speaking stations, from areas where Channel 9 is just another channel. Channel 6
aka “the Super Bowl”, a channel with whopping signals, sometimes splattering from one end of
the band to the other, wild and wooly, but never ever boring. The other channels have traffic that
is just random chit chat, usually without profanity or kookiness, just people talking normally and
stations “shooting skip” seeking distant stations, which is perfectly legal as of 2018.
I said “fairly familiar with” in that there is a love-hate relationship with ham and CB radio. To
some, CBers are the Great Boogeymen of Radio. Anyone acting like a fool on the air is
automatically declared to be a CBer, when in fact, it usually turns out being an ancient amateur
with a cooked cranium.
Yes, there are some CBers who use illegal equipment, with illegal power on illegal frequencies
and some who act like foul mouthed louts, but not all do. I tend to believe that most CBers
actually run “clean” stations and operations, but you since they “behave” they don’t stand out.
Sort of like school day. People remember the hooligans, but the quite shy ones that didn’t act out
fade into the mists of memories. I operate a “clean” station and have since 1976.

At first, I believed the ham vs CB resentment, (and the resentment goes both ways), was simple
rivalry, not unlike rival sports teams. Alabama fans may insult Auburn fans, but more Alabama
fans than not “root” for Auburn, except during that certain dreaded day in November. There are
those who take it to a much darker level though.
Some CBers resent hams because some hams are so quick and vocal condemning CBers. Some
hams resent CBers pointing to poor CB operating practices, disregard for the FCC rules, because
of the history of CB or simply because they think “that’s what the ‘cool kids’ do.” And we all
wanna be cool, don’t we?
Having “dual radio citizenship”, being in both CB & ham since 1977, I can see both sides of the
argument.
As to history, 65 years ago what is now CB was the 11 Meter Amateur Radio band, which
stretched from 26.960 to 27.230 MHz. This was a secondary allocation in the realm of ISM or
Industrial, Scientific and Medical devices and was never a popular band. Partly because it was
not harmonically related the other Amateur bands, such as 160, 80, 40, 20 15 or 10 Meters, and
largely because of interference from the devices of the primary ISM users which legally created
hellacious broadband interference from coast to coast.
Not that much protest was heard, when in 1958 the frequencies were reallocated and given to a
new the Class D Citizens Radio Service aka Citizens Band. But, popular or not, the “we was
robbed” sentiment helped create the love/hate relationship that exists to this day.
GMRS, which shares frequencies with FRS, is sometimes confused as “UHF CB” and some are
under the impression that GMRS is CB Version 2.0 or a “ham like“ service. There is some truth
that the defunct UHF Class A CB was the forerunner of GMRS and defunct VHF Class B is
arguably an even more distant ancestor of FRS, but that is where the similarities end.
Class C CB, now known as the Radio Control Radio Service, includes spectrum at 72 and 76 MHz
in addition to the original 27 MHz channels interspersed among voice channels as well as CB
Channel 23.
In 1973 there was a petition to create a Class E CB service in the neglected 220 MHz or 1.25 meter
amateur band, which, with due credit to the ARRL, was defeated in 1977.
However, in the late 1980’s, the United Parcel Service (UPS) began lobbying the FCC to reallocate
part of the 1.25-meter band to the Land Mobile Service, as they publicized plans to use the band to
develop a narrow-bandwidth wireless voice and data network using a mode called ACSSB
(amplitude-companded single sideband). They picked 220 MHz citing that it was little used and
that it was in the public interest. In 1980 the FCC reallocated 220 – 222 MHz to private and federal
government land-mobile use. The UPS then changed their minds and went in another direction
communications wise and the FCC issued parts of the band to other private commercial interests,
especially pagers, which have now gone the way of dinosaurs.
So, basically we hams lost 220 – 222 MHz for nothing, though the FCC did reallocate 219 – 220
MHz on a secondary bases for amateur use, for fixed digital message forwarding. So, if you ever
look at a frequency allocation chart and wonder why there is a gap of 220 – 222 MHz in the 219 –
225 MHz 1.25 meter band, now you know why.
Will the FCC ever give the frequencies back to the Amateur service? Probably not, as there is so
little activity on the band. Which is a shame, as it’s a very good band. There is a scarcity of
radios and a scarcity of people, probably due to the scarcity radios, which is due to the scarcity of
people who can’t find radios to talk to the few people with radios, and so forth and so on.

Moving on to GMRS/FRS & MURs, what can you REALLY hear on the GMRS/FRS & MURs
frequencies?
After months of monitoring at a location atop Red Mountain from 1000 feet up overlooking the
city, Interstates I-65, I-20/59, I-22 and US Highways 280 & 31 and their tangled drug induced
interchanges. I can tell you that in Birmingham, at least, on FRS and GMRS 95% of what I hear is
business related. I hear schools, security, a hospital, a pet supply store, plumbers, contractors,
random Spanish, and occasionally kids on FRS Channel 1 screeching, but no highway traffic like
CB Channel 19 or “meeting cool new people” as in 2 meter ham radio. It is just not that type of
realm.
There is a repeater near Birmingham in Blount County at Palisades Park near Oneonta on 462.600
Mhz, (DCS 155), which Red Mountain blocks me from hearing at home, but, from work on Red
Mountain, it has a great signal and beautiful audio.
This repeater is operated by JR Lowery KK4CWX. If you have a GMRS license, standard protocol
is to always contact the repeater owner and ask permission to use the repeater before actually
doing so, and if I can ever bore a hole through Red Mountain, look out world, here I come!
As for GMRS, some suggest, (though GMRS frequencies are referred to as “frequencies” not
“channels” since the FCC doesn’t call them “channels” and some radios use different channel
configurations) using Channel 16 for 4 x 4 off road groups (4×4=16) and Channel 19 for highway
use, mimicking CB. Channel 20 was promoted as the “Travelers Channel” with a PL tone of 141.3
Hz, the “Travel Tone”, by groups, but, after months of listening, I see no one frequency used more
than any other. Everything is very random and unpredictable.
On MURs, unless I am near a Walmart, months go by before I hear any signal. Then it may be an
itinerant worker or two cars on a road trip chatting until they drift out of range.
MURs, which has 2 watts power output, and as opposed to FRS. no antenna restrictions and the
same propagation characteristics as 2 meters, is an overlooked resource.
What other low power services are there?
There are critters known as a “LowFERs”.
LowFERs or “Low Frequency Experimental Radio”, are experimental stations that operate below
the AM Broadcast Band from 160 – 190 kHz, with up to 1 Watt using a 3 meter (9.84 feet) antenna.
This is not to be confused with the new 2,200 meter ham band, which stretches from 135.7 – 137.8
kHz, which is available for CW and phone operations with 1 Watt EIRP.
Most LowFER activity is in the form of CW beacons, though actual CW QSO’s do occur, and with
good band conditions and a lot of luck, 100 – 300 miles or more range is possible during winter
nights.
LowFER activity is hindered by interference from power line control carriers, utility stations and if
the conditions are VERY good, Broadcasters from Europe and Africa, as there is a Longwave
Broadcast band in ITU Region 1 from 148.5 – 283.5 kHz.
MedFERs, or Medium Frequency Experimental Radio suffers the same plight of AM broadcast
interference, and even more so seeing that they lie from 510 – 1705 kHz, overlapping the AM
Broadcast Band. They use a mighty 1/10 th of a Watt and a 3 meter (9.84 feet) antenna.

At one time they had a refuge from 1600 – 1710 kHz, with the only competition being fish net
buoys in the Gulf IDing in CW and an aeronautical beacon in Caracas Venezuela. Then the FCC
expanded the AM band to 1700 kHz, which took away all their fun.
HiFERs or High Frequency Experimental Radio lies in a 14 kHz wide slice of spectrum centered at
13.560 kHz. The ultimate in QRP operations, they use 4.8 milliwatts into a dipole or quarter wave
antenna. They are plagued by interference from diathermy machines and other devices in the
Industrial, Scientific, and Medical or ISM band.
Want your own FM radio station? The FCC does permit very low power operations using a 200
kHz wide FM signal where the emission “shall not exceed 250 microvolts per meter at 3 meters”.
The actual output of the transmitter is based on field strength not, output power. One person I
know played oldies music from his iPod to his neighborhood, which the neighbors told him they
enjoyed.
Recently, I was in an online argument, which seems to be the New American Pastime, as a certain
error laden website, “carcbradios.com” stated “The frequencies that can be used without a
license are: 1.) 902 to 928 MHz (33cm Amateur Band)…”
,
They are wrong and slightly correct, in that there are companies that market 1 watt, FHSS
(Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum) handheld radios under the ISM umbrella. They typically
stay on a frequency for 90 milliseconds and then hop to another frequency, or about 11 hops per
second.
But, this is a far cry from the case of “aw just get a ham radio and use it, because who gives a rip
anyway?” (An attitude becoming more and more prevalent as people bootleg on ham bands, the
Marine Band and anywhere a radio happens to land).
Yes, it is a radio and yes, it is license free, but then again you don’t need a license for a cellphone
either.
We will close out this article with a little beast called “PMR446”.
PMR446 is the European Union equivalent of the Family Radio Service in the US. Where FRS
operates in the 462 MHz range, PMR446, which uses 500 mw, operates in the 446 MHz range,
which in the US is the 70 CM ham Band.
PMR446 Analog FM frequencies are:
Ch 01 446.00625 MHz “Children’s Channel”
Ch 02 446.01875 MHz
Ch 03 446.03125 MHz
Ch 04 446.04375 MHz
Ch 05 446.05625 MHz
Ch 06 446.06875 MHz
Ch 07 446.08125 MHz
Ch 08 446.09355 MHz “Calling Chanel”
Ch 09 446.10625 MHz
Ch 10 446.11875 MHz
Ch 11 446.13125 MHz
Ch 12 446.14375 MHz
Ch 13 446.15625 MHz
Ch 14 446.16875 MHz
Ch 15 446.18125 MHz
Ch 16 446.19375 MHz

There are also 32 DMR channels interspaced between the listed FM channels from 446.003125 –
446.196825 MHz, but I’ll focus on the FM channels.
PMR446 radios, in their original purpose as unlicensed low power two way radios, are illegal for
use in the US and are not sold in the US. But, it is possible you might hear one now and again, as
visiting Europeans will on occasion bring them with them, not knowing or perhaps not caring
about their legality, or lack thereof.
The interesting question arises though, since they are FM in the voice portion of the 70 CM band,
can a licensed ham use them? The answer is theoretically yes.
They reside in the portion of the band recommended for simplex, auxiliary and control links and
repeaters and Channel 1 is very close to the 70 CM National Simplex Frequency 446.000 MHz.
Two problems arise. First, will it interfere with auxiliary and control links or repeaters?
Secondly the frequency arrangements are 12.5 kHz “splinter frequencies”, which are non-
standard.
But, if the answer to the first question is “no”, that resolves the main concern. So, yes, a US ham
could legally use a pair of FM PMR446 radios, even if they have weird spacing, say for camping
and such. But, with only a 500 milliwatts to play with, there are much better options available.
Assuming you are a ham, just get a regular run of the mill HT and ham away. If you don’t have a
license and don’t want to fork out $35 for a GMRS license, get an FRS or MURs radio.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess
Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.
Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome
it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.
On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration of Mexico’s 1862 victory over
Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which
is actually on September 16.
Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the
Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.
The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.
The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is
the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane
season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851
to 2022 there have been 27 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm,
the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary

Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the
storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.
60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May.
Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6
degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases
from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.
Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:
May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Aries, The Ram.
At the beginning of the month Mercury, magnitude +4.2 in Aries, The Ram, is hidden in the glow of
the Sun. He will pass between the Earth and the Sun, or be in “Inferior Conjunction, on May 1.
He will then emerge very low into the predawn morning sky on May 12, at 5:09 AM, some 30
minutes before Sunrise, and brighten rapidly as the month progresses.
On May 29, he will reach his highest point above the horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation”,
13° above the horizon, rising around 4:30 AM, and hour before Sunrise, at magnitude +0.4.
Venus, magnitude -4.1 in Taurus, The Bull, becomes visible around 7:45 PM, 35° above the
western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. She will then sink towards the horizon, setting 3
hours and 21 minutes or so, after Sunset.
On May 12, she will be at her highest point in the sky in her 2023 evening visit, shining brilliantly
at a magnitude of -0.3, 40° above the horizon.
One interesting note, during the pandemic, while many we’re shut in watching TV, Washington
University in St. Louis graduate student Rebecca Hahn was busy doing something else. She took
the highest-resolution imagery available of the Venusian surface, which was obtained by NASA’s
Magellan spacecraft from 1990 to 1994 using radar to penetrate the perpetual cloud cover and
loaded it into mapping software like that used by engineers and urban planners on Earth. She
then set out to map every single volcano visible in the grainy, black-and-white images by hand.
The result was a map of 85,000 volcanos.
So, with sulfuric acid rains, 855° surface temperatures, 1000 PSI atmospheric pressure, and now
this, I have decided not to visit there after all.
How many of these volcanoes are active, no one knows. While Mars has inactive volcanoes, only
Earth and Jupiter’s moons Io & Europa have active volcanoes. Io is so volcanic that it is
constantly resurfacing itself.
Earth, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Virgo, The Virgin.
Mars, magnitude +1.3, in Gemini, The Twins, is an early evening object, becoming visible around 8
PM, 56° above the western horizon, as dusk fades to darkness. He then sinks towards the horizon,
setting just before 1 AM.
He will reach his furthest distance from the Sun in his 687 day orbit, or “Aphelion” on May 30.

Mars has a significantly elliptical orbit around the Sun, and at Aphelion he receives 31% less heat
and light from the Sun than at his closest point, “Perihelion”, which he will reach May 8, 2024.
Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +7.5, is in Coma Berenices, or “Berenices Hair.
Jupiter, magnitude –2.1, in Pisces, The Fish, is lost in the glow of the Sun as the month begins.
By mid-month he will emerge into the dawn sky, rising around 4:30 AM, an hour before the Sun,
reaching an altitude of 10° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks an
hour later.
Jupiter will pass 0.8° South of the Moon on May 17.
Saturn, magnitude +0.9, in Aquarius, The Water Bearer. Is an early morning object, rising, at the
beginning of the month, around 3 AM, 2 hours and 50 minutes before the Sun at an altitude of 24°
above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks.
He rises earlier and earlier as the month progresses, by mid-month rising around 02:14, 3 hours
and 30 minutes before the Sun, and reaching an altitude of 31° above the south-eastern horizon
before fading from view as dawn breaks around 05:06 AM.
By months end he will rise a little after 1 AM and reach an altitude of 38° above the south-eastern
horizon before fading into the dawn around 5 AM.
Uranus, magnitude +5.9 in Aries, is lost in the glow of the Sun.
He will pass behind the Sun, or be in “conjunction”, on May 8.
Neptune, magnitude 7.8 in Pisces, The Fish, is lost in the glow of the Sun as the month begins.
By months end he will emerge into the morning sky rising a little after 2 AM, 3 hours and 26
minutes before the Sun and reaching an altitude of 27° above the south-eastern horizon before
fading from view as dawn breaks around 4:30 AM.
Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.5 in Capricorn, The Sea Goat..
Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint
magnitude of +17.3 in Bootes, The Herdsman
Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) faintly shines at magnitude +17.1
in Coma Berenices.
Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia is barely visible in the most powerful
telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.
At least five additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and
though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as
well.
90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude +19.1 between Hydra, the Sea Monster and
Serpens, The Snake.
50000 Quaoar,and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Ophiucus, The Serpent Bearer,

90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System,
glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus, The Bull.
225088 Gonggong, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius, The Water
Bearer.
Unnamed Dwarf Planet 2014 UZ224, nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles
from the Sun, at magnitude +23.1 in Eridanus, The River.
Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, and asteroid unofficially
called Asteroid 2018 AG37, and nicknamed FarFarOut, glows at a barely detectable +25.5
magnitude in Lynx.
FarFarOut is 12,246,241,135 miles or in Light Time, 18 hours, 15 minutes and 40.1951 seconds
from Earth.
The most distant man-made object, Voyager 1, still operating after 45 years, 7 months and 20 days
is 14,793,533,059 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 3 minutes and 34 Seconds from Earth as of
11:50 AM, April 26, 2023, sailing through Ophiuchus, The Serpent Bearer.
It is still in contact with the Earth via NASA’s Deep Space Network from interstellar space, or more
poetically put “somewhere between the stars.”
There are 1,281,179 known asteroids as of April 26, per NASA.
5338 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 17, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.
Full Moon will occur May 15th at 12:36 PM CDT or 17:36 UTC, May 5. The Moon will be located on
the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is
“Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has
also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.
During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.
There will be a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse May 5. A penumbral lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon
passes through the Earth's partial shadow, or penumbra. During this type of eclipse, the Moon will
slightly darken, but not completely. The eclipse will be visible throughout Asia, Australia and
parts of eastern Europe and eastern Africa.
The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest distance from Earth on May 10, when she will be 229,500
miles from Earth.
Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur May 12 at
9:29 AM or 14:29 UTC.
During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.
The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 5 & 6. It can produce up
to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In
the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent
shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 39
years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year
on the night of May 5 and the morning of the May 6. The nearly full moon will be a problem this
year, blocking out all but the brightest meteors. If you are patient, you should be able to catch a

few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from
the constellation Aquarius but can appear anywhere in the sky.
New Moon will occur on May 19 at 10:55 AM CDT or 15:55 UTC. The Moon will be located on the
same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of
the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no
moonlight to interfere.
The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 25 at 251,351 miles.
First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur May 27 at
10:23 AM or 15:23 UTC. During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.
In the Northern Sky the Big Dipper, part of Ursa Major, the Great Bear, begins the month upside
down, “spilling its water” on Polaris, the North Star, which is the tip of the handle of the Little
Dipper or Ursa Minor, the Little Bear.
Interestingly, the Big and Little Dippers are arranged so that when one is upright, the other is
upside down. In addition, their handles appear to extend in opposite directions. The Big Dipper is
by far the brighter of the two, appearing as a long-handled pan, while the Little Dipper resembles a
dim ladle.
The Big Dipper is called by other names across the world. In the Netherlands it’s the “Saucepan”,
“The Plough” in England and “The Great Wagon” in other parts of Europe.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

This month’s meeting will be on May 9 at 7 PM.
The meeting will be held at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Calera and remotely as
was last month’s meeting. Details and instructions will be issued as the time nears.
I hope to see you there!
Mark Wells
WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter