Hi everyone & Happy 4th of July!

With this month’s newsletter I wish to welcome our new President Dale Chambers KD4QHZ!

Dale has been very active in Civil Air Patrol, and was the Commander of the CAP in Bessemer and is well versed in Emergency Communications.…and I’ve known Dale for a long time, as we went to school together back in the Dark Ages, and can tell you that ALERT is in good hands.

So let’s make sure to encourage and support him as he leads ALERT into the future.

Try to attend our July 12 meeting as we welcome Dale!

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Why I Joined ALERT

This feature gives members an opportunity to share their stories of why they are members of ALERT. Why did you become a member of ALERT? What lessons have you learned?

Our first story is from Casey NZ20.

I’m Casey Benefield/NZ2O. I joined ALERT because of the influence of many good men while I was growing up. Looking back, everything happened in the most perfect order and timing, almost like it was a plan. Secondarily, I’m a bit of a geek when it comes to weather and technology, so I tend to push the envelope.

James Spann/WO4W visited my school when I was 7. If memory serves right, I was sent to the principal’s office after making a weather poster. I still remember the surprised look when I explained what was on it. I didn’t realize I had just explained convection/wind, nor could I spell convection.

Mark Parmley/NR4J introduced me to ham radio while on church mission trips from 1999-2003. I became licensed when I lived in Springfield, MO for work with HP. Springfield didn’t have a the same kind of wall-to-wall coverage that we enjoy in Alabama. Amateur radio and Skywarn helped me stay one step ahead, when I had no tornado shelter or basement.

At the ALERT table at Birminghamfest, Just John Miller/KI4VVM helped me understand how ALERT supports the NWS, by receiving the Skywarn and storm reports that I became fond of in Springfield. The final tipping point was April 27, 2011, where amateur radio rendered aid to my family, getting us out of the impacted area. I decided it was time for me to return that favor, to serve those in amateur radio, NWS, and the weather community that has kept me and my family safe for years, with those valuable early warnings and forecasts.


(Editors Note: Thank you Casey for your input and for your (and Russell & Justin’s) work on ALERT’s various social media presences:

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/K4NWS/
ALERT Blog – https://alert-alabama.org/blog/
Twitter – https://twitter.com/K4NWS
Google+ https://plus.google.com/+Alert-alabamaOrg?prsrc=5
Zello – http://zello.me/k/duTMd


Who will send our next story?

I hope it will be YOU!

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Alabama – Number One!

Alabama can boast of not only having the BCS National Championship team (Roll Tide), but we also lead the nation, according to USA Today, of having the “most dangerous weather.”

Per the USAToday feature: http://www.usatoday.com/videos/money/2016/05/19/84609416/
the top seven states are:

1. Alabama

5 year fatality rate: 61.1 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 295
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $4.4 Billion

2. Missouri

5 year fatality rate: 43.5 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 263
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $3.5 Billion

3. Nevada

5 year fatality rate: 36.1 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 101
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $133.0 Million

4. Wyoming

5 year fatality rate: 34.5 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 20
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $45 Million


5. Arkansas

5 year fatality rate: 30.8 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 91
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $1.2 Billion

6. Oklahoma

5 year fatality rate: 27.8 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 107
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: S3.3 Billion

7. Mississippi

5 year fatality rate: 26.4 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 79
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $2.6 Billion

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk bare paw, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

Looking skyward, Mercury is disappearing into the glow of sunrise, while Venus is hidden in the glow of sunset.

Mars is shining at magnitude -1.5 in Libra. It is the yellow orange point shining, but, not twinkling, in the South during and after dusk. Mars is shrinking and dimming in the night sky as the Earth pulls away from the Red Planet.

Jupiter shining at magnitude -1.9 at the hind foot of Leo The Lion shines in the West during and after dusk. He is almost the smallest he ever appears in the sky, being on the far side of his orbit from us.

On July 4 NASA’s Juno spacecraft is scheduled to arrive at Jupiter after a five year journey. Launched on August 5, 2011, Juno will be inserted into a polar orbit around the giant planet on or around July 4, 2016. From this orbit the spacecraft will study Jupiter’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Juno will remain in orbit until October 2017, when the spacecraft will be de-orbited to crash into Jupiter.

Saturn, shining at magnitude +0.2 in Southern Ophiucus glows 20 degrees East or left of Mars.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.9 in Pisces in the East before dawn begins.
Neptune, magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is higher in the Southeast before the light of dawn.
Recently the Hubble Space Telescope spotted a large a dark vortex in the atmosphere of Neptune. Though similar features were seen during the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune in 1989 and by the Hubble Space Telescope in 1994, this vortex is the first one observed on Neptune in the 21st century.
Neptune’s dark vortices are high-pressure systems and are usually accompanied by bright “companion clouds,” which are also now visible on the distant planet. The bright clouds form when the flow of ambient air is perturbed and diverted upward over the dark vortex, causing gases to likely freeze into methane ice crystals. Dark vortices coast through the atmosphere like huge, lens-shaped gaseous mountains and the companion clouds are similar to the lens shaped orographic clouds that sometimes appear over mountains on Earth, which are often mistaken for UFO’s.
On July 4 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will be invisible. New Moon will occur at 11:01 UTC or 6:01 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 19 at 22:57 or UTC 5:57 PM CDT, and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

Make sure to take time to enjoy the glow of Earth’s primary moon. “Primary moon?”…“What’s he talking about?”

In the never ending game of celestial billiards or perhaps heavenly square-dancing, objects are constantly being pulled, turned, captured and released by the competing gravitational fields of the Sun, planets and moons.

Occasionally an object can be captured by a planet and become a permanent fixture as a moon, such as Phobos and Diemos, the moons of Mars. Other times objects, TCOs (Temporarily Captured Objects) can be temporarily captured by a larger object as in the case of asteroid 2006 RH120, which astronomers with the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona found orbiting the Earth in 2006. This was a tiny asteroid measuring just a few yards across, but it still qualified as a natural satellite just as much as the Moon. But, by June 2007, it was gone, having been pulled out of orbit by the gravity of the Moon.

Astronomers at Cornel University say “At any given time, there should be at least one natural Earth satellite of 1-meter diameter orbiting the Earth”. These NEOs (Near Earth Objects) orbit the Earth for about ten months, enough time to make about three orbits, before leaving.

Then we come to the case of asteroid 2016 HO3.

On June 15, 2016 NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena announced the discovery of 2016 HO3: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2016-154

“A small asteroid has been discovered in an orbit around the sun that keeps it as a constant companion of Earth, and it will remain so for centuries to come.”

“As it orbits the sun, this new asteroid, designated 2016 HO3, appears to circle around Earth as well. It is too distant to be considered a true satellite of our planet, but it is the best and most stable example to date of a near-Earth companion, or ‘quasi-satellite.’”

“Since 2016 HO3 loops around our planet, but never ventures very far away as we both go around the sun, we refer to it as a ‘quasi-satellite’ of Earth,” said Paul Chodas, manager of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object (NEO) Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.”

“One other asteroid — 2003 YN107 — followed a similar orbital pattern for a while over 10 years ago, but it has since departed our vicinity. This new asteroid is much more locked onto us. Our calculations indicate 2016 HO3 has been a stable quasi-satellite of Earth for almost a century, and it will continue to follow this pattern as Earth’s companion for centuries to come.”

“In its yearly trek around the sun, asteroid 2016 HO3 spends about half of the time closer to the sun than Earth and passes ahead of our planet, and about half of the time farther away, causing it to fall behind. Its orbit is also tilted a little, causing it to bob up and then down once each year through Earth’s orbital plane. In effect, this small asteroid is caught in a game of leap frog with Earth that will last for hundreds of years.”

“The asteroid’s orbit also undergoes a slow, back-and-forth twist over multiple decades. The asteroid’s loops around Earth drift a little ahead or behind from year to year, but when they drift too far forward or backward, Earth’s gravity is just strong enough to reverse the drift and hold onto the asteroid so that it never wanders farther away than about 100 times the distance of the moon,” said Chodas. “The same effect also prevents the asteroid from approaching much closer than about 38 times the distance of the moon. In effect, this small asteroid is caught in a little dance with Earth.”

So, next time you look at the moon and He looks lonely up there, don’t worry. Though you will never spot it, since it’s so faint, he has a wee friend (about 130–330 feet in diameter) up there waltzing with him.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour. The second quarter moon will block most of the fainter meteors, but, with patience you should be able to see a few good ones.

Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

3285 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 23, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on July 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi everyone,

I hope all is going well & that you are finding a nice cool spot out of the pre-summer heat and showers.

The biggest ALERT news of the month concerns our recent elections. At our last meeting the ALERT elections were held for the 2016 – 2017 term.

The Officers for 2016 – 2017 are:

President: Dale Chambers KD4QHZ
Vice-President & Membership: Roger Parsons KK4UDU
Secretary: Justin Glass N0ZO
Treasurer: Johnny Knobloch KJ4OPX
NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas KV4S

Per the ALERT Bylaws our new Officers will assume their positions at the July 12 meeting.

Thanks to all of our new officers for their service to our organization!

One thing which will remain the same is our newsletter. I will continue on as the Editor-In-Chief, and hopefully will be able to provide interesting items for your enjoyment.

I will also continue as the Net Manager of the ALERT Sunday Nite Net. If you have not checked in to our net I invite you to join us. We meet at 7PM Sunday on 146.88 MHz PL 88.5 hz.

I hope to see you there!

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Why I Joined ALERT

This feature, which I hope will become a regular feature, will give members an opportunity to share their stories of why they are members of ALERT. Why did you become a member of ALERT? What lessons have you learned?

Our first story is from Ronnie WX4RON

My name is Ronnie King and my call sign is WX4RON. Here is ‘my’ story: I initially joined ALERT in 2011 after renewing my license in October of 2010. I was trying to get involved in as many ham radio groups as I could because i was new to the Jefferson county area as a resident and as a ham, living in Hoover, starting in August 2009. I had Joined The BARC, the SCARC and I think that I joined the SSARC also.

However, I stayed on with ALERT because I liked the group of hams from many clubs who had partnered together to make the Organization known as ALERT. I liked the staff at the NWS / BMX Office and as I became familiar with all of these people, it was evident to me that we all had the same common goal: the safety and survival of our communities. I was impressed with the skills and cohesiveness displayed from everyone involved in ALERT and the NWS / BMX office so much that I wanted to become an active part of this group.

It has been my privilege and Honor to be a part of ALERT for the past 4 years roughly. Thank you everyone for allowing me to be there / here.

(Editors Note: Thank you Ronnie for your input and for your leadership as President these last three years. We wish you well.)

Who will send our next story?

I hope it will be YOU!

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. NOAA has released their seasonal prediction, which calls for a “near normal” season with 10 – 16 named storms, 4 – 8 hurricanes and 1 – 4 major hurricanes.

Shortly before his death at age 86, Colorado State University Professor William Gray and his designated successor, Dr. Phillip Klotzbach also predicted a “near average season” with 13 named storms, 5 of which could become hurricanes, 3 possibly being category 3 or higher.

Forecasts by the UK Met Office issued May 12, is calling for a slightly above average season with 14 named storms, which is above the 1980 – 2010 average of 12 storms. This would include 8 hurricanes, not counting Hurricane Alex which formed out of season in January.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really how many storms actually do form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

This year our tropical season forgot to read the calendar, as we already have had two named storms – Hurricane Alex, which was the first January storm since 1938 and Tropical Storm Bonnie, which is currently heading for South Carolina.

With the “official” 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina.
2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ – Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and
clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving, can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward.
If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 16 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Felix, which took just 51 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/, you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf For the Atlantic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf For the Eastern Pacific

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.”

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2016 Tropical Cyclone Names

The 2015 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie & Walter.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2021. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms.

If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

Looking skyward, at the first of the month Mercury is low in the Eastern horizon at sunrise and will reach His highest elevation, 24.2 degrees from the Sunday June 5.

Venus is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Mars is shining at magnitude -2.0 at the head of Scorpius in the Southeast, nearly as bright as Jupiter, high in the Southwest.

At the first of the month Mars will be the largest and brightest until July 2018, forming a triangle with
the red star Antares to the lower left of Mars and Saturn to the left of Antares.

If you have a telescope, take a closer look. The rings of Saturn are easily seen, as is the ruddy disk of Mars. The Red Planet is just finishing winter in its southern hemisphere, so look for the bright polar cap of the Martian South Pole.

Jupiter in Southern Leo border is high in the South at twilight, shining at magnitude -2.2. The telescope you used to peek at Mars and the rings of Saturn will reveal the cloud bands of Jupiter and the nightly dance of His four largest moons, Europa Callisto, Ganymede and Io, the most volcanically active world in our solar system.

Saturn, shining at magnitude +0.1 just above the head of Scorpius, as mentioned forms a triangle with Mars and Antares. He will make his closest approach to Earth on June 2nd. His rings are tilted 26.1degrees from edgewise, making for a beautiful display in telescopes. While viewing the rings you may notice an object nearby. This is largest moon, Titan, which having an atmosphere twice as thick as Earth’s and stable hydrocarbon seas, lakes and rivers filled with liquid ethane, methane and dissolved nitrogen, also holds the distinction of being the only other moon, besides the Earth’s Moon, having had a spacecraft land on its surface. The European Space Agency’s Huygens probe landed on Titan on January 14, 2005 near the Xanadu Region, a highly reflective area on Titan’s leading hemisphere

Uranus is veiled by the glow of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is low in the East-Southeast before the first light of dawn.

New Moon will occur June 4 at 9:59 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 20 at 6:02 AM CDT. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

Summer Solstice will occur at 5:34 PM CDT on June 20. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

Mark June 25 on your calendar and think about Christmas. Why? Because this is how Christmas, which is six months away, feels like in Australia and Brazil on December 25.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

3268 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 19, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on June 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these spring days.

Our May 10 ALERT meeting will feature our annual elections.

If you are a paid up Operational or Supporting Member, which is a member interested in Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license (yet), you may vote in the 2016 – 2017 ALERT leadership elections.

The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting.

July is also when ALERT dues are due. Remember, if you wish to respond to ALERT callouts or serve as an officer you MUST be current with your dues.

Also, there will be a Board of Directors meeting proceeding the regular 7 PM meeting at 6:30.

I hope to see you there!

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Introducing The NWS Enhanced Data Display

One of the more interesting tools or in my case toys for weather analysis is the experimental NWS Enhanced Data Display or EDD. This tool is apparently one of the frequently visited, yet least advertised products that the NWS has made available.

Ranking the 7th most popular GO.USA.gov links, the NWS EDD http://preview.weather.gov/edd/
is described as an “Experimental GIS-centric meteorological display interface that can display a wide range of data including observations, forecasts, radar, satellite, hazards, weather model data and much more.” “…an effort by the NWS’s Weather Ready Nation’s (WRN) Pilot Project in Charleston, WV to be a “one-stop shop” to view and display numerous past, present, and future weather-related datasets important in the delivery of weather decision support services to support the NWS mission to save life and property, and promote the nation’s economy.”

So what exactly is the EDD and what can you do with it?

The EDD is designed to allow users to tap into various forecast products generated by various NOAA and other government entities.

It features an interactive map which you can drag and zoom and if you point the cursor to any location in the continental US or CONUS, the local forecast will appear.

You can add various layers to the map including radar, satellite, hazards, forecasts, observations, upper air balloon soundings, local storm reports and more.

You can choose interfaces allowing you to narrow down the information for various purposes, including hazmat, aviation, hydrology, marine, emergency management or tropical interests.

One of the more interesting tools is the “Travel Weather Forecast”. This feature is accessed by clicking the “slippery road” traffic sign in the upper right corner. A window appears and by adding your start point (by right clicking on the map) and adding the destination in the same manner it will automatically plot the shortest route and give you a very detailed weather forecast at various intervals along the way, along with the estimated time of arrival to these points.

If you are addicted to weather as I am, you can spend hours playing with this tool.

The only cautions I would give are that this is an experimental product. Occasionally a “bug” might rear its ugly head. Also, this site processed lots of data. If you have a slow internet connection, it will operate slowly.

New features are added as the NWS tweaks this site. So check the site frequently for new options.

Another kindred product is NowCOAST, http://www.nowcoast.noaa.gov/
described as a “one-stop” website to real-time coastal meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic observations from a variety of Internet sites within and outside of NOAA, along with NOAA forecasts.

Though primary aimed at marine interests, it a valuable resource, and well worth investigation.

Incidentally the primary sites I use during severe weather are:

For the regional real-time conditions, to see what is happening “upstream” I use the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis page http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
which features access to very detailed real-time data, including CAPE values, shear, helicity and much more.

For Dual-Pol Radar I use http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BMX-N0Q-0-6 which has access to radar products, such as the correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity products and hydrometeor classification, which the local site http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bmx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
currently does not. I use the local site as my backup site, and to obtain the range or distance of the storms I’m tracking.

Also, I monitor and utilize the NWSchat system https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/?nomap which ALERT members, once approved for access, can use to relay valid storm reports to the NWS forecast office.

Give these sites a try. I think you will be glad that you did!

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. In 110 years there have been 14 named storms.

Looking skyward, Mercury is fading away in the sunset. On May 9, beginning shortly after sunrise Mercury will begin moving across the face of the Sun in a rare transit – a planetary version of an eclipse. Transits of Mercury are rare events, with on average only 13 transits per century. By some weird coincidence of orbital mechanics and celestial billiards, these transits occur within days of May 8 & November 10.

Timings are as follows:

6:51 AM Sunrise in Birmingham
7:14 AM Transit Begins
10:58 AM Maximum Transit, just below the center of the Sun
2:41 PM Transit Ends

Do NOT try to view this with a naked eye. Use a solar filter or a “pinhole camera” as one would use with a solar eclipse. Construction details may be found at: http://www.exploratorium.edu/eclipse/how-to-view-eclipse

One thing to consider is that Mercury will be a small speck on the surface of the Sun. In other words, don’t expect a dramatic display.

The next transit will occur on November 11, 2019 & in 2039.

Mercury and Venus are the only planets that can produce a transit. The last transit of Venus was in June of 2012 and the next will occur in December 2117, when I will be 159 years old.

Venus is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Mars, in the legs of Ophiuchus above Scorpius, rises around 10 or 11 PM. He is highest in the South around 2 or 3 AM to the right of dimmer Saturn and above the twinkly orange star Antares and shines at magnitude -1.3.

His closest approach to Earth will occur May 22. He will be the brightest of the year, appearing as a reddish bright star like object, which refuses to twinkle. Since planets usually don’t twinkle like stars.

Be prepared for the usual Facebook meme that usually circulates around the time of closest approach, which will say, “Mars will appear as large as a full moon” or “we will be treated to two full moons in the evening sky”. As the saying goes “it ain’t gonna happen”.

Jupiter in Leo, dominates the Southern Sky in the evening, at magnitude -2.3. Very conspicuous, one might wonder “what is that?” Sometimes He has caused UFO reports.

Saturn, at magnitude +0.3, has moved into the legs of Ophiuchus. He rises about a half hour after Mars, with Saturn, Mars and Antares forming a triangle in the sky.

Uranus is hidden in the glow of the Sun.

Neptune is very low in the East-Southeast at the beginning of dawn.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, a minor shower, will peak May 5 & 6 with 30 meteors per hour.

It is produced by dust particles left behind by Comet Halley. A New Moon will ensure a decent show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur May 6 at 2:29 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint deep sky objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

Full Moon will occur May 21th at 4:15 PM CDT. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

Since this is the third of four full moons in this season, this will be a “Blue Moon”.

Beware of Internet rumors of this being the last Blue Moon for centuries or millennia or ever. They actually occur on average every 2.7 years. The next one will be on January 31, 2018.

1966 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 28, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last but, not least, World Naked Gardening Day will occur May 7.

Make sure to wear sunscreen, as some places are best not sunburned.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 10 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you doing well.

Just a brief reminder, that at our upcoming April 12 meeting the Nominating Committee will issue its recommendations for the upcoming ALERT elections in May. Nominations from the floor will be allowed the night of the elections in May.

I hope to see you there!

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Help Wanted!

We need articles for this newsletter.

Some topics might include:

How you became interested in ALERT.
Interesting moments you have experienced during callouts or Skywarn Nets
Experiences you have had with storms.
Officers thoughts and comments.
Meeting minutes.
Operator “hints and kinks” (they call them “hacks” now, though why I don’t know).
Your thoughts and suggestions concerning emergency preparedness.

Remember this is YOUR newsletter, not mine.

Your help will be appreciated.

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Did You Know?

Tornado forecasting was once banned in the US?

Before 1950, the “Weather Bureau”, as the National Weather Service was called from 1889 to 1970, was strongly discouraged and at other times forbidden to use the word “tornado” in weather forecasts, because of a fear that predicting tornadoes might cause panic.

Per the Storm Prediction Center “This was in an era when very little was known about tornadoes compared to today, by both scientists and the public at large. Tornadoes were, for most, dark and mysterious menaces of unfathomable power, fast-striking monsters from the sky capable of sudden and unpredictable acts of death and devastation.

As the weather patterns which led to major tornado events became better documented and researched, the mystery behind predicting them began to clear–a process which still is far from complete, of course.”

On July 12, 1950, the Weather Bureau revoked the ban, stating: ”Whenever the forecaster has a sound basis for predicting tornadoes, the forecast should include the prediction in as definite terms as the circumstances justify.”

The first documented successful tornado forecast by meteorologists was on March 25, 1948 by Air Force Captain Robert Miller and Major Ernest Fawbush, who after noticing striking similarities in the developing weather pattern to others which produced tornadoes, including the Tinker AFB, OK, tornado several days before, advised their superior officer of a tornado threat in central Oklahoma that evening. Compelled from above to issue a yes/no decision on a tornado forecast after thunderstorms developed in western Oklahoma, they put out the word of possible tornadoes, and the base carried out safety precautions. A few hours later, the second tornado in five days directly hit the base.

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Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s was March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2014, 8304 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2013, 1770 deaths and 29,090 injuries.

As of 2011, Alabama ranked fifth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois & Kansas, all belonging to the “over 400 club” for April since 1950.

As of June 2013 Alabama and Oklahoma are tied as having the most F5 & EF5 tornadoes, both having had 7 F5 or EF5 tornadoes. In fact until the May 20, 2013 Moore Oklahoma EF5 tornado, Alabama lead the nation in the most violent tornadoes.

Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:

April 18, 1953 F3 Lee & Russell County 6 dead 195 injured
April 18, 1953 F3 Shelby County 8 dead 495 injured
April 15, 1956 F4 Jefferson County 25 dead 200 injured “McDonald Chapel Tornado”
April 18, 1969 F4 Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties 2 dead 15 injured

April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” or produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949. The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado. The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day. Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio. The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “April 3, 1974 F5 Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured

April 3, 1974 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured
April 3, 1974 F5 Limestone-Madison 28 dead 260 injured
April 4, 1977 F5 Jefferson County 22 dead 130 injured “Smithfield Tornado”
April 1, 1998 F3 Russell County 2 dead 23 injured
April 8, 1998 F5 Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured “Oak Grove Tornado”

April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,
with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada. April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes. Of 348
people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.

Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.

April 27, 2011 F5 Marion County 18 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Marion County 7 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured
April 3, 2012 F2 Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured
April 28, 2014 F3 Limestone County 1 dead 30 injured

Beware of the storms of April.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury, Venus, Uranus and Neptune are hidden behind the Sun. And, hypothetical Planet Nine, is just plan hidden, having yet to be seen.

Mercury will emerge into the evening sky early in the month and on April 18 will reach his highest point in the Western sky, being 19.9 degrees above the horizon. Look for him just after the glow of sunset fades away.

Mars, shining at magnitude -0.5 at the head of Scorpius rises about midnight and glows yellow orange in the south, to the right of dimmer Saturn. He is closing in on his closest approach to Earth, which will occur in May. It is already large enough to show surface detail in a 3 inch telescope, during good seeing conditions. By may it will quadruple in brightness and nearly double in diameter.

Be prepared for the usual Facebook meme that usually circulates around the time of closest approach, which will say, “Mars will appear as large as a full moon” or “we will be treated to two full moons in the evening sky”.

This is both a physical and an optical impossibility.

Unless, of course Mars or Earth slips out its orbit and goes sailing by the other, which in the case of the latter planet, would give us something to worry about….for a little while anyway.

Jupiter, near the hind foot of Leo the Lion shines high in the southeast after dusk and shines highest in the south at magnitude -2.4 at midnight.

On March 17 an amateur astronomers saw a flash in the clouds of Jupiter as a small comet or asteroid, a few hundred feet in diameter struck the planet. This isn’t the first time such a strike has been observed. He was struck in 1994 by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, and was struck again by other objects in 2010 & 2012.
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Saturn shining at magnitude +0.4 in the legs of Ophiuchus rises around midnight, 10 degrees lower left of Mars. By dawn they will stand in the south, with Saturn on the left, bright Mars on the right and the fainter Mars colored star Antares, at magnitude +0.96, twinkling below them making a triangle.

Antares, or Alpha Scorpii is 550 light years away and is the fifteenth brightest star in the night sky.
Its name is derived from the Greek Άντάρης, which means “equal to Ares”, with the similar red hue. Ares was the Greek god of War, the counterpart of Mars, the Roman god of war, or in other words, basically the same dude.

A red giant star, like similar star Betelguese in Orion, both are expected to explode in a supernova that could be as bright as the full moon and be visible in the daylight.

The last supernova in our galaxy was 400 years ago, and we are 300 years overdue for one.

Will these explode within our microscopically small lifetimes? Or will it occur 10,000 years from now, when the nations and events of the 21st century will be a mere footnote in the histories of whatever civilizations may exist?

Only time and the silent darkness of space will tell.

April’s New Moon will occur April 7 at 5:24 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

April’s Full Moon was known as “Full Pink Moon” in Native American folklore as it marked the reappearance of pink wild ground phlox. This will occur April 21 at 11:24 PM. This moon was also called by various tribes, the “Sprouting Grass Moon”, “Growing Moon”, “Egg Moon” and “Fish Moon”, as this is when shad swam upstream to spawn.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

Unfortunately, this year a nearly Full Moon will drown out all but the brightest meteors.

1962 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on April 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database