Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you doing well & that you have been enjoying these spring days.

Our May 10 ALERT meeting will feature our annual elections.

If you are a paid up Operational or Supporting Member, which is a member interested in Amateur Radio, Skywarn or Emergency Communications, but doesn’t have a ham license (yet), you may vote in the 2016 – 2017 ALERT leadership elections.

The officers will assume their positions at the July meeting.

July is also when ALERT dues are due. Remember, if you wish to respond to ALERT callouts or serve as an officer you MUST be current with your dues.

Also, there will be a Board of Directors meeting proceeding the regular 7 PM meeting at 6:30.

I hope to see you there!

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Introducing The NWS Enhanced Data Display

One of the more interesting tools or in my case toys for weather analysis is the experimental NWS Enhanced Data Display or EDD. This tool is apparently one of the frequently visited, yet least advertised products that the NWS has made available.

Ranking the 7th most popular GO.USA.gov links, the NWS EDD http://preview.weather.gov/edd/
is described as an “Experimental GIS-centric meteorological display interface that can display a wide range of data including observations, forecasts, radar, satellite, hazards, weather model data and much more.” “…an effort by the NWS’s Weather Ready Nation’s (WRN) Pilot Project in Charleston, WV to be a “one-stop shop” to view and display numerous past, present, and future weather-related datasets important in the delivery of weather decision support services to support the NWS mission to save life and property, and promote the nation’s economy.”

So what exactly is the EDD and what can you do with it?

The EDD is designed to allow users to tap into various forecast products generated by various NOAA and other government entities.

It features an interactive map which you can drag and zoom and if you point the cursor to any location in the continental US or CONUS, the local forecast will appear.

You can add various layers to the map including radar, satellite, hazards, forecasts, observations, upper air balloon soundings, local storm reports and more.

You can choose interfaces allowing you to narrow down the information for various purposes, including hazmat, aviation, hydrology, marine, emergency management or tropical interests.

One of the more interesting tools is the “Travel Weather Forecast”. This feature is accessed by clicking the “slippery road” traffic sign in the upper right corner. A window appears and by adding your start point (by right clicking on the map) and adding the destination in the same manner it will automatically plot the shortest route and give you a very detailed weather forecast at various intervals along the way, along with the estimated time of arrival to these points.

If you are addicted to weather as I am, you can spend hours playing with this tool.

The only cautions I would give are that this is an experimental product. Occasionally a “bug” might rear its ugly head. Also, this site processed lots of data. If you have a slow internet connection, it will operate slowly.

New features are added as the NWS tweaks this site. So check the site frequently for new options.

Another kindred product is NowCOAST, http://www.nowcoast.noaa.gov/
described as a “one-stop” website to real-time coastal meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic observations from a variety of Internet sites within and outside of NOAA, along with NOAA forecasts.

Though primary aimed at marine interests, it a valuable resource, and well worth investigation.

Incidentally the primary sites I use during severe weather are:

For the regional real-time conditions, to see what is happening “upstream” I use the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis page http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
which features access to very detailed real-time data, including CAPE values, shear, helicity and much more.

For Dual-Pol Radar I use http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BMX-N0Q-0-6 which has access to radar products, such as the correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity products and hydrometeor classification, which the local site http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bmx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
currently does not. I use the local site as my backup site, and to obtain the range or distance of the storms I’m tracking.

Also, I monitor and utilize the NWSchat system https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/?nomap which ALERT members, once approved for access, can use to relay valid storm reports to the NWS forecast office.

Give these sites a try. I think you will be glad that you did!

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. In 110 years there have been 14 named storms.

Looking skyward, Mercury is fading away in the sunset. On May 9, beginning shortly after sunrise Mercury will begin moving across the face of the Sun in a rare transit – a planetary version of an eclipse. Transits of Mercury are rare events, with on average only 13 transits per century. By some weird coincidence of orbital mechanics and celestial billiards, these transits occur within days of May 8 & November 10.

Timings are as follows:

6:51 AM Sunrise in Birmingham
7:14 AM Transit Begins
10:58 AM Maximum Transit, just below the center of the Sun
2:41 PM Transit Ends

Do NOT try to view this with a naked eye. Use a solar filter or a “pinhole camera” as one would use with a solar eclipse. Construction details may be found at: http://www.exploratorium.edu/eclipse/how-to-view-eclipse

One thing to consider is that Mercury will be a small speck on the surface of the Sun. In other words, don’t expect a dramatic display.

The next transit will occur on November 11, 2019 & in 2039.

Mercury and Venus are the only planets that can produce a transit. The last transit of Venus was in June of 2012 and the next will occur in December 2117, when I will be 159 years old.

Venus is lost in the glare of the Sun.

Mars, in the legs of Ophiuchus above Scorpius, rises around 10 or 11 PM. He is highest in the South around 2 or 3 AM to the right of dimmer Saturn and above the twinkly orange star Antares and shines at magnitude -1.3.

His closest approach to Earth will occur May 22. He will be the brightest of the year, appearing as a reddish bright star like object, which refuses to twinkle. Since planets usually don’t twinkle like stars.

Be prepared for the usual Facebook meme that usually circulates around the time of closest approach, which will say, “Mars will appear as large as a full moon” or “we will be treated to two full moons in the evening sky”. As the saying goes “it ain’t gonna happen”.

Jupiter in Leo, dominates the Southern Sky in the evening, at magnitude -2.3. Very conspicuous, one might wonder “what is that?” Sometimes He has caused UFO reports.

Saturn, at magnitude +0.3, has moved into the legs of Ophiuchus. He rises about a half hour after Mars, with Saturn, Mars and Antares forming a triangle in the sky.

Uranus is hidden in the glow of the Sun.

Neptune is very low in the East-Southeast at the beginning of dawn.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, a minor shower, will peak May 5 & 6 with 30 meteors per hour.

It is produced by dust particles left behind by Comet Halley. A New Moon will ensure a decent show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur May 6 at 2:29 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint deep sky objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

Full Moon will occur May 21th at 4:15 PM CDT. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

Since this is the third of four full moons in this season, this will be a “Blue Moon”.

Beware of Internet rumors of this being the last Blue Moon for centuries or millennia or ever. They actually occur on average every 2.7 years. The next one will be on January 31, 2018.

1966 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 28, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

Last but, not least, World Naked Gardening Day will occur May 7.

Make sure to wear sunscreen, as some places are best not sunburned.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 10 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you doing well.

Just a brief reminder, that at our upcoming April 12 meeting the Nominating Committee will issue its recommendations for the upcoming ALERT elections in May. Nominations from the floor will be allowed the night of the elections in May.

I hope to see you there!

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Help Wanted!

We need articles for this newsletter.

Some topics might include:

How you became interested in ALERT.
Interesting moments you have experienced during callouts or Skywarn Nets
Experiences you have had with storms.
Officers thoughts and comments.
Meeting minutes.
Operator “hints and kinks” (they call them “hacks” now, though why I don’t know).
Your thoughts and suggestions concerning emergency preparedness.

Remember this is YOUR newsletter, not mine.

Your help will be appreciated.

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Did You Know?

Tornado forecasting was once banned in the US?

Before 1950, the “Weather Bureau”, as the National Weather Service was called from 1889 to 1970, was strongly discouraged and at other times forbidden to use the word “tornado” in weather forecasts, because of a fear that predicting tornadoes might cause panic.

Per the Storm Prediction Center “This was in an era when very little was known about tornadoes compared to today, by both scientists and the public at large. Tornadoes were, for most, dark and mysterious menaces of unfathomable power, fast-striking monsters from the sky capable of sudden and unpredictable acts of death and devastation.

As the weather patterns which led to major tornado events became better documented and researched, the mystery behind predicting them began to clear–a process which still is far from complete, of course.”

On July 12, 1950, the Weather Bureau revoked the ban, stating: ”Whenever the forecaster has a sound basis for predicting tornadoes, the forecast should include the prediction in as definite terms as the circumstances justify.”

The first documented successful tornado forecast by meteorologists was on March 25, 1948 by Air Force Captain Robert Miller and Major Ernest Fawbush, who after noticing striking similarities in the developing weather pattern to others which produced tornadoes, including the Tinker AFB, OK, tornado several days before, advised their superior officer of a tornado threat in central Oklahoma that evening. Compelled from above to issue a yes/no decision on a tornado forecast after thunderstorms developed in western Oklahoma, they put out the word of possible tornadoes, and the base carried out safety precautions. A few hours later, the second tornado in five days directly hit the base.

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Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s was March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2014, 8304 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2013, 1770 deaths and 29,090 injuries.

As of 2011, Alabama ranked fifth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois & Kansas, all belonging to the “over 400 club” for April since 1950.

As of June 2013 Alabama and Oklahoma are tied as having the most F5 & EF5 tornadoes, both having had 7 F5 or EF5 tornadoes. In fact until the May 20, 2013 Moore Oklahoma EF5 tornado, Alabama lead the nation in the most violent tornadoes.

Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:

April 18, 1953 F3 Lee & Russell County 6 dead 195 injured
April 18, 1953 F3 Shelby County 8 dead 495 injured
April 15, 1956 F4 Jefferson County 25 dead 200 injured “McDonald Chapel Tornado”
April 18, 1969 F4 Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties 2 dead 15 injured

April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” or produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949. The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado. The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day. Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio. The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “April 3, 1974 F5 Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured

April 3, 1974 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured
April 3, 1974 F5 Limestone-Madison 28 dead 260 injured
April 4, 1977 F5 Jefferson County 22 dead 130 injured “Smithfield Tornado”
April 1, 1998 F3 Russell County 2 dead 23 injured
April 8, 1998 F5 Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured “Oak Grove Tornado”

April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,
with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada. April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes. Of 348
people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.

Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.

April 27, 2011 F5 Marion County 18 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Marion County 7 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured
April 3, 2012 F2 Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured
April 28, 2014 F3 Limestone County 1 dead 30 injured

Beware of the storms of April.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury, Venus, Uranus and Neptune are hidden behind the Sun. And, hypothetical Planet Nine, is just plan hidden, having yet to be seen.

Mercury will emerge into the evening sky early in the month and on April 18 will reach his highest point in the Western sky, being 19.9 degrees above the horizon. Look for him just after the glow of sunset fades away.

Mars, shining at magnitude -0.5 at the head of Scorpius rises about midnight and glows yellow orange in the south, to the right of dimmer Saturn. He is closing in on his closest approach to Earth, which will occur in May. It is already large enough to show surface detail in a 3 inch telescope, during good seeing conditions. By may it will quadruple in brightness and nearly double in diameter.

Be prepared for the usual Facebook meme that usually circulates around the time of closest approach, which will say, “Mars will appear as large as a full moon” or “we will be treated to two full moons in the evening sky”.

This is both a physical and an optical impossibility.

Unless, of course Mars or Earth slips out its orbit and goes sailing by the other, which in the case of the latter planet, would give us something to worry about….for a little while anyway.

Jupiter, near the hind foot of Leo the Lion shines high in the southeast after dusk and shines highest in the south at magnitude -2.4 at midnight.

On March 17 an amateur astronomers saw a flash in the clouds of Jupiter as a small comet or asteroid, a few hundred feet in diameter struck the planet. This isn’t the first time such a strike has been observed. He was struck in 1994 by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, and was struck again by other objects in 2010 & 2012.
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Saturn shining at magnitude +0.4 in the legs of Ophiuchus rises around midnight, 10 degrees lower left of Mars. By dawn they will stand in the south, with Saturn on the left, bright Mars on the right and the fainter Mars colored star Antares, at magnitude +0.96, twinkling below them making a triangle.

Antares, or Alpha Scorpii is 550 light years away and is the fifteenth brightest star in the night sky.
Its name is derived from the Greek Άντάρης, which means “equal to Ares”, with the similar red hue. Ares was the Greek god of War, the counterpart of Mars, the Roman god of war, or in other words, basically the same dude.

A red giant star, like similar star Betelguese in Orion, both are expected to explode in a supernova that could be as bright as the full moon and be visible in the daylight.

The last supernova in our galaxy was 400 years ago, and we are 300 years overdue for one.

Will these explode within our microscopically small lifetimes? Or will it occur 10,000 years from now, when the nations and events of the 21st century will be a mere footnote in the histories of whatever civilizations may exist?

Only time and the silent darkness of space will tell.

April’s New Moon will occur April 7 at 5:24 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

April’s Full Moon was known as “Full Pink Moon” in Native American folklore as it marked the reappearance of pink wild ground phlox. This will occur April 21 at 11:24 PM. This moon was also called by various tribes, the “Sprouting Grass Moon”, “Growing Moon”, “Egg Moon” and “Fish Moon”, as this is when shad swam upstream to spawn.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

Unfortunately, this year a nearly Full Moon will drown out all but the brightest meteors.

1962 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on April 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone,

The Birmingham Hamfest http://birminghamfest.org/ is at the end of this week, March 4 & 5 at the Zamora Shrine Temple.

This will be a Friday & Saturday affair, Friday 4 – 7 PM and Saturday 8:30 AM to 4 PM.

ALERT will have a table Saturday and an ALERT forum 12 – 1 PM Saturday in the mystical Knights Of Mecca Room.

This month’s ALERT meeting on March 8th will feature the selection of the two person Nominating Committee for the upcoming elections in May.

Please plan on attending this meeting & don’t be shy about volunteering to serve on the Committee or to make yourself available for a leadership role. We need some of our newer members to step up and become active members of ALERT’s leadership. All it takes is a willing heart and once elected a commitment to faithfully fulfill your duties of office to the best of your abilities.

We need you to be actively involved in ALERT’s leadership and to help us build a strong ALERT organization for the future.

Your time has arrived.

Your ALERT needs you.

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10 Popular Tornado Myths

1. “A mountain will protect you from a tornado.”

This is a common myth in the Jefferson / Shelby County areas, as most major tornadoes do seem to prefer the areas northwest of the foothills of Appalachians, of which Red Mountain and Shades Mountain are. But, this is a false assumption.

The tornado will go up the side of a mountain, shorten and widen, and then go down the other side and lengthen and tighten in size, often with a higher wind speed, similar to an ice skater increasing her speed by pulling her arms in. This is called “vortex stretching.”

Why does Jefferson County get visited by more severe tornadoes and Shelby County seems to have been largely spared?

The best theory is that the Jefferson County is closer to the core of the Dixie Tornado alley, while Shelby on the eastern edge. The other theory is Shelby County has plain “lucked out” and that that lucky streak will end, either due to odds or the Dixie Alley shifting eastward.

2. “A river will protect you from a tornado.”

On May 7, 1840, a tornado touched down in Louisiana 20 miles Southwest of Natchez Mississippi, which lay on the opposite shore. The storm moved on an odd path paralleling the Mississippi, defoliating trees on both shores. The three to four hundred yard wide funnel followed the Mississippi, reached Natchez and Vidalia Louisiana, destroying the central and norther portions of Natchez.

A contemporary report stated “the air was black with whirling eddies of walls, roofs, chimneys and huge timbers from distant ruins…all shot through the air as if thrown from a mighty catapult.” “Reports have come in from plantations 20 miles distant in Louisiana, and the rage of the tempest was terrible. Hundreds of (slaves) killed, dwellings swept like chaff from their foundations, the forest uprooted, and the crops beaten down and destroyed. Never, never, never, was there such desolation and ruin.”[

The “official” death toll was 317, with 269 being killed on 60 flatboats on the Mississippi. But, the unofficial toll was believed to be much higher.

If the Mississippi could not deflect a (post review) F5 tornado, the Warrior River won’t either.

3. “A Tornado is more likely to hit a mobile home park.”

It isn’t that mobile homes magnetically attract tornadoes. It is the same tornado hitting the same neighborhoods would find that fixed structures are anchored better and are more
aerodynamically stable that their mobile counterparts. So the houses, may survive while the tumble trailers tumble away.

One oddity I saw with the damage from 2004’s Hurricane Charley was that it flattened a well-constructed subdivision, but, left the trailer park next door untouched.

4. “You should open a window to balance the pressure inside your house so it won’t explode due to the low pressure.”

Tornadoes are quite adept at opening the windows on their own, with limbs and 2×4’s, forget the windows, and take shelter instead.

Houses are not air tight, and don’t explode, rather are blown away from the outside.

One oddity with the Pratt City 1998 F5 tornado is that there were two houses sitting a couple of dozen feet apart. The house one the left had roof and walls blown away, but, the dishes and napkins on the dining room table were untouched. The house on the right had the roof and walls undamaged, but, every stick of furniture was sucked out of the barred windows.

5. “Tornadoes never strike the same place twice.”

McDonalds Chapel was struck by an F4 tornado April 15, 1956 & and an F5 April 8, 1998.
Smithfield was struck by an F5 tornado April 4, 1977 and by an F4 tornado April 27, 2011.
Cordell Kansas was hit three times on May 20 three years in a row in 1916, 1917 & 1918.
Guy Arkansas had the same church hit by three tornadoes in the same day.

6. “Overpasses are safe tornado shelters.”

The wind flow under an overpass is much greater than the open field. There is a wind tunnel effect, which concentrates the wind, and one can be easily blown away like a pea being shot from a straw, on impaled by debris as small as a pine straw.

A far safer move is to lay in a depression or ditch, assuming it doesn’t flash flood.

Another idea that makes sense is something my Mom’s Grandma told her when she was a little girl in the 1930’s. “If you are caught in a cyclone, grab hold of a small bush like a hedge bush. A cyclone will knock over trees, but, they won’t rip up bushes.”

Based on damage I’ve seen in tornado debris fields, there is some basis for this.

Though it has nothing to do with tornadoes, she also said “If a bear gets after you don’t climb a tree, it can out climb you. Don’t run uphill, it can outrun you. Run downhill at an angle, the bear’s short legs will cause it to stumble and roll downhill and you can escape.”

7. “A tornado always has a visible funnel.”

A visible tornado vortex is composed of two parts, the “condensation funnel” cause by water droplets condensing near the base of the parent cloud and a “dust or debris funnel” caused by dust being stirred up carried by the wind circulation on the ground. If there is no dust available to to be picked up, for instance in a parking lot, there will be no visible funnel touching the ground, even though the wind circulation is in full contact with the ground. This is why concentrated “green lightning” or power flashes are a valuable clue which should be reported to the NWS. They indicate a circulation on the ground.

8. “You can outrun a tornado.”

In the panhandle of Texas perhaps this is true, but not in a metropolitan area or an area with few road options.

On May 20, 2013, Oklahoma City’s KFOR Meteorologist Mike Morgan told his viewers at least eight times to get in their cars and drive south of the city as a large rain wrapped EF5 tornado rapidly bore down on the city. Though admitting that the interstate was already a “parking lot”, since it was rush hour, he later advised people twice to “abandon your cars” as the storm reached the city.

This proved to be terrible advice.

“Unfortunately there are hundreds and hundreds of cars on the road……a lot of people are panicking trying to leave their house…..you really can’t move very much.” – Chase Thomason KFOR.

24 people were killed. If the tornado had turned to the right, even just a little bit, it would have struck the gridlocked interstate, the death toll would have been unbelievably higher.

9. “Tornadoes don’t strike cities.”

One mistaken theory I have heard is that perhaps the heat island effect of the city deflects the storms circulation somehow. But, that is not true

Downtown St. Louis has taken a direct hit four times in less than a century.
Brooklyn New York was hit by an EF2 in 2001.
Atlanta was hit by an EF2 in 2008
Fort Worth was hit by an EF3 in 2000
Nashville was hit by an EF3 in 1998

My grandfather always said “the day will come when a big tornado will go right up Jones Valley into downtown Birmingham.” Though it hasn’t happened yet, there really in no reason to think it won’t happen someday.

10. “The news media always seek out Bubba Jo, Donnie Ray or Cooter for interviews.”

Invariably you will see this interview or something similar:

“Ah was sittin on the porch getting burrs out of Old Duke’s fur an I seed it. I hollered ‘Doreen,
DOREEN thars a cyclone in tha thar cloud.’ I grabbed the goat an Doreen grabbed some cheekens an we went to the root cellar. When we wuz come out, one of the cheekins was nekkid as a Jay Bird, with no feathers, the trailer was gone and old man Johnsons trailer wuz sittin whar ours was sposed to be sittin. I told the old fool he had 24 hours to get his junk off mah propity, but, he didn say much too, being in a amboolance an all. Ah told him time and agin pullin’ fer the Volunteers would git him in trouble, but, listen, no, no, no…”

I’m sure the news media doesn’t purposely seek out the Bubba Joes and Cooters of the world, and it’s just a coincidence.

Or it it?

I’l just have to ask Old Duke some time….

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called Martius, March is the third month & first month of the Roman calendar. March is named for Mars, the god of war, and was the start of the military campaign season.
The beginning of “Meteorological Spring”, which is based on changes in temperature and precipitation, not the solar angle, is March 1
March is a wet month. Most floods occur in March and rainfall averages around 6 inches.
Tornadic activity sharply increases in March with there being an increase of 2.2 times the number of tornadoes over the February amount. The focal point for this tornadic activity is the Gulf States.
March is the hail maximum for the Deep South. This is due both to the number of thunderstorms & due to the freezing level still being near the surface. This allows hail to form at lower altitudes and reach the ground intact, as opposed to summer months, when the near surface level temperatures are higher and melts the hail into liquid before impact.
Killing frosts are gone and the last average frost is on March 16.
March is a snow month for Alabama & there is a 45% chance of snow up to one inch, and an 8% chance of one inch or more.
The good news is that there is hope on the horizon as Spring will arrive at Vernal Equinox on March 19 at 4:30 UTC or 10:30 P.M. CDT.
Remember to get the eggs out, as it is said that you can stand eggs on their ends at the hour of equinox.
Daylight Savings Time begins at 2 AM on March 13. So remember to “spring forward” one hour. This, of course means I will lose one hour of “beauty sleep”, which is something I desperately need.
Saint Patrick’s Day is March 17, and you better participate by wearing a Touch O’ The Green or you will be plagued by leprechauns and gnomes. Not a pleasant experience, I can assure you.
Looking towards the sky, Mercury is disappearing into the glow of sunrise..

Brilliant Venus, shining at magnitude -3.9, is just above the east-southeast horizon 20 to 30 minutes before sunrise, 7 to 9 degrees upper right of Mercury.

Mars lies in Libra, shining at magnitude +0.03 rises about midnight and glows yellow orange in the south before dawn..

Jupiter, behind the hind foot of Leo the Lion rises in the east at twilight and shines highest in the south at magnitude -2.5 at midnight. He will make his closest approach to Earth on March 8.

Saturn shining at magnitude +0.5 in the feet of Ophiuchus around 1 or 2 A.M., and is in the east-southeast at dawn.

Uranus shines at magnitude +5.9, and sinks in the West in Pisces soon after dark.

Neptune is hidden behind the Sun

Planet Nine, if it exists, is shining dimly at a magnitude fainter than 22 and at an oblique 30 degree angle to the ecliptical plane of the solar system where the other eight planets orbit.

New Moon will occur March 8 at 1:54 UTC or 7:54 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Total Solar Eclipse March 9, if you want to go to Australia or Vietnam to watch it. It will be in the middle of the night and totally invisible to North America.
Be assured you will see someone posting about it happening in Alabama on social media, but, unless you want to go to Brisbane, you are bloomin’ out of luck.

Full Moon will occur on March 23 at 12:02 UTC or 6:02 AM CST. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes “Worm Moon”. So called because the rains disturb the earthworms & they are seen wiggling around after the rains.

They are edible by the way, but I think I’ll let you have my share. Incidentally slugs are edible also. Just think of them as snails without the shell

There will be a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse; an eclipse where the moon is only slightly darkened by the fringes of Earth’s shadow, on March 23. This will be visible from Eastern Australia eastward to the West Coast of North America.

Elsewhere, 1955 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of February 25, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on March 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone

It is practically certain that our resident groundhog Birmingham Bill will not see his shadow this Groundhog Day. If true, and if the folklore were true, then we would have an early spring.

Also, we would have the storms of that early spring.

Are you ready for the storms of spring and for the callouts that will come?

There will be, barring unforeseen circumstances, an ALERT training session Saturday February 20 from noon till 2 PM. This will be an excellent chance to train or refresh your training before the spring severe weather season begins.

Now is also the time to take the time to review your personal emergency preparedness plans and to brush up on your skills. Don’t wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late.

In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions:

Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready?
Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working?
Are the batteries charged?
Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources.
Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings?

Are you prepared both at home and at work?

Remember, keeping yourself and your family alive and intact during and after the storms is your number one priority.

Stay safe.

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Potent PDF’s & Other Ready Resources

The primary key to emergency preparedness, regardless of the type of emergency is education.
It would not be inappropriate to quote Hosea 6:4 “My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge.
The less you know, the more vulnerable you are. Likewise the more you know, the less vulnerable you are. The more you learn, the more mental tools you have at your disposal, and the better prepared you will be to act and react to rapidly changing emergency scenarios.

The following are resources, which deal with a wide range of scenarios, I have found useful.

Read them & learn them and you will be better suited to help yourselves, your families and your community.

WEATHER RELATED RESOURCES

First we will present storm spotter courses. The training material is available online, but, I strongly recommend you attend the classes, whether in person or one of the online presentations. Books are good. I eat them up, but nothing beats the “live performance”.

Basic Stormspotter Guide PDF – http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/pdf/basicspotterguide.pdf

Basic Stormspotter Presentation by John De Block PDF- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bmx/outreach/skywarn/WebBasicSpotter2009.pdf

Advanced Stormspotter Guide PDF – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fwd/pdf/broch_adv_spotter.pdf

Graduate Stormspotter Presentation by Scott Unger – PDF – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bmx/outreach/skywarn/GraduateSpotterPresentation.pdf

Weather Spotter’s Field Guide http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/Skywarn/SpotterGuide-2011.pdf

Role Of The Skywarn Spotter https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=817#.VrAErcvnbIU

Skywarn Spotter Convective Basics
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=816#.VrAFFcvnbIU

NWS Spotter Training Presentation Power Point Presentation

“Click on the link and choose to Open the Zip file as it’s downloaded to your computer.
Once the download is complete, extract to a location of your choosing, e.g. “My Documents”.
A new subdirectory will be made in the location you specified, e.g. C:My DocumentsNWS_Spotter_Training.
Within this new directory, use Internet Explorer to Open NWS_Spotter_Training.htm and then view the presentation.”

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/NWS_Spotter_Training.zip

NWS Preparedness & Storm Spotter Information Catalog
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=skywarn

Large Minicourse In Meteorology
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

GENERAL DISASTER PREPARDNESS COURSES & BOOKS

Our first item may, at one time, have been out of place in a disaster preparedness discussion, however in the 2016 world in which we live, it is very appropriate.

The first course is FEMA’s course IS-907: “Active Shooter: What You Can Do” http://training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-907

This is the current training for what to do if you find yourself in a mass shooting incident.

It is somewhat “dated” in that focuses more on workplace violence than on terrorist activity.
And, even if it did focus on terrorist activity, the aims and motives of the current generation of terrorists is different than those of the past.

Terrorists of the past would target “symbolic” targets, namely military, governmental and economic targets. In some cases, such as the Irish Republican Army, and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, they justified their actions on a desire to establish independence or a homeland.

Others would strike because of hatred of the west, Israel, and especially the United States for our once strong support of Israel and our hindering terrorist expansion in the region.

ISIS is different. While they want to establish a nation for an operations base, their ideology is primarily based on the idea that by acting as they are acting they will usher in an Apocalyptic Age, which will lead to their version of Armageddon. They believe that the few surviving remnants of humanity from that battle will be followers of ISIS ideology.

They have a very skillful multimedia recruitment campaign which is working, capturing young imaginations, and capitalizing on the fact that the hardest thing to defeat is an idea.

All that said, regardless of whether a mass shooting incident is triggered by terrorists, disgruntled workers and some random loon, IS-907 should be required reading.

People should not walk in fear, but, should be aware of what is going on, both nationally and in their immediate surroundings, and not walk around in a daze.

Recently I saw a lady walking through a Walmart parking lot happily texting away, oblivious to everything and walking smack into the middle of a parked Cadillac. She suddenly looked up and looked amazed that a car could suddenly materialize out of nowhere, moved five feet left, and resumed walking and texting.

Terrorists aside, this, and tuning out the world with earbuds is making oneself a muggers dream.

IS-907, is from the same site where you take the FEMA ICS & NIMS courses:

http://www.training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-100.b Introduction the Incident Command System

http://www.training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-200.b ICS For Single Resources and Initial Action Incidents

http://www.training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-700.a National Incident Management System, an Introduction

http://www.training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-800.b National Response Framework, An Introduction.

These FEMA Incident Command System courses are not required for ALERT members, since ALERT does not use the Incident Command System.

Why not, you may ask?

Our served agency, the National Weather Service, and its parent organization NOAA does not utilize it nor require its use, so we follow their lead. Plus, in my opinion, the ICS structure is cumbersome for small organizations and two man callouts.

If the day should come that we were to implement this system, the probable structure would be as follows:

INCIDENT COMMANDER:

The senior NWS Official on scene, i.e. Meteorologist In Charge, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Lead Forecaster or whoever they designated as Incident Commander.

ALERT’s operations would fall under the Logistics Section of the NWS ICS.

The ICS is still worth being familiar with, however for use with ARES, EMA and other operations and to have a broader knowledge of how and why things are done as they are done.

Another worthwhile course is the CERT Course “Introduction To Community Emergency Response Teams”

http://training.fema.gov/is/courseoverview.aspx?code=IS-317 and Appendix http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/downloads/training/CERTPMAppendix1-APDF.zip

This is the same material you receive when local CERT classes are held. However, if you actually intend to be a CERT responder you SHOULD & MUST attend a CERT class to be certified and to lessen the likelihood of getting yourself killed in the field.

If those interest you, IS-22 Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness http://www.training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/IS/is22.asp will be good for you also.

For good measure here are the old Civil Defense Manuals from the “Good Old Days”:

H-14 In time of EMERGENCY a citizen’s handbook on … Nuclear Attack … Natural Disasters (1968)
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15158/15158-h/15158-h.htm

SM-3-11 Personal And Family Survival (1966) http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-Personal_and_Family_Survival.html

The ARES ARECC books and courses are goldmines of information. Order all three books, read them and read them again. When a local course is offered, take it. http://www.arrl.org/courses-training.

I hope you find these resources useful, will read them and then read them again.

Remember that knowledge is a perishable commodity, so you want to stay fresh in your preparations.

As it is said “If you stay ready, you don’t have to get ready” – Dianna ‘Miss D’ Williams

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Mark’s Almanac

February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.

February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.

February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so the that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year has 29 days, the next of which will occur in 2016.

In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.

Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.

There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.

Ground Hog Day is on February 2 & believers will watch Punxsutawney Phil and Birmingham Bill, to see if they saw their shadows.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury and Venus are low in the southeast. Look 40 to 60 minutes before sunrise.

Mercury will reach his greatest western elongation rising 25.6 degrees above the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury, since it is at his highest point above the morning horizon. Look in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Brilliant Venus, sometimes confused as a UFO, is easy to spot shining at magnitude -3.9. Look lower left of it for fainter Mercury.

To the upper right of Venus is Saturn shining much fainter at magnitude +0.5 in Ophiuchus.

Mars lies in Libra, shining at magnitude +1.0 high in the south in early dawn.

Jupiter, between Leo and Virgo, rises in the east around 9 PM and shines highest in the south at magnitude -2.3 around 3 AM.

Uranus shines high in the Southwest in Pisces at sunset at magnitude +5.8.

Neptune shines at magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius and is sinking low in the west after dark.

Planet Nine, if it exists, is shining dimly at a magnitude fainter than 22 and at an oblique 30 degree angle to the ecliptical plane of the solar system where the other eight planets orbit.

Planet Nine’s probable existence was announced on January 20 by Konstantin Batygin & Huntsville’s Mike Brown, of the California Institute of Technology. Brown’s team discovered dwarf planets Eris, Haumea and Makemake and he was the lead proponent of Pluto’s demotion. They cited computer modeling of gravitational effects on the strange orbits of objects near the edge of the solar system including probable dwarf planets Sedna, also discovered by Brown’s team, and 2012 VP133 which was discovered in 2014.

If Planet Nine does exist, it is a Neptune type world, 10 times the size of Earth, in an orbit 20 times distant form the sun as Neptune.

Personally, I think poor old Pluto is still #9 and this, if it does actually exist, should be #10, but, the International Astronomical Union which demoted the old boy in 2006 forgot to ask me.

So pooh…

An interesting article, for those who might be interested is “Hypothetical Planets” which deals with planets, moons and the Sun’s “companion star Nemisis”. All proposed or “discovered” through the years only to be “undiscovered” when better data became available. See: http://nineplanets.org/hypo.html

Elsewhere, 1935 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

New Moon will occur at 8:39 AM on Monday, February 8, as the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

Full Moon will occur Monday, February 22, 12:20 PM CST.

February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore, since the heaviest snows usually fell at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.

The February sky is alit with bright stars. With Orion the Hunter overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky.

February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane.

Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness.

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The Birmingham Hamfest http://birminghamfest.org/ is now only five weeks away, March 4 & 5.
As mentioned in last month’s newsletter, this it will be a Friday & Saturday affair; instead of the Saturday Sunday dates of years past.

This month’s meeting will be on February 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database