Hi everyone,

Do you have any plans Sunday night?

If not, or if you can squeeze it in, I cordially invite you to join the ALERT Sunday Night Net.

This net, formerly the BARC Sunday Night Net meets every Sunday at 7PM on 146.88 MHz. Glenn Glass, KE4YZK, formed the net about 19 years ago and I took over as Net Manager from Mark Nichols, K7NOA in 2001. BARC has since then donated the net to ALERT for ALERT promotion and visibility.

The ASNN is a “discussion net” and at times we try to slip training snippets in concerning net operations and what the NWS and ALERT does and doesn’t need reported.

We have a dedicated staff of Net Control Stations:

David Hanna – WX4NCS
Jackson Chance – KK4NGD
Dale Wisely – N4HEY
and every now and then Mark WD4NYL

One thing to be stressed is that this net is NOT an emergency net and won’t be activating for emergencies. One should always respond to your local ARES / Skywarn Net when situations arise.

Should the ASNN be in session and a severe weather arise, it will, as it has in numerous cases in the past, clear the frequency for the Jefferson County ARES Emergency Net.

So, once again, if you are available (carry an HT into the choir loft, the minister won’t mind), give the net a try.

I think you will like it!

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1151 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

…NWS Birmingham Webpage Changes Coming September 27th…

On September 27th, 2016, the look and feel of our webpage will be
changing. On this date, our office, along with all Southern Region
NWS Weather Forecast Offices, will migrate to a new layout on the
front page of our web home page. This is in response to a required
web infrastructure consolidation that will occur by the end of the
year. The change will also provide office-to-office consistency
because the layout of the home page will be set across the region.

In addition to the new front page layout, all webpage links will be
changing. You can visit the following webpage for more information
on the forthcoming changes: http://w2-mo.weather.gov/bmx/webpagetransition
We will be updating this page with new information as we approach
the transition date.

Our office is working hard to ensure that the transition will be as
painless as possible, but as with any major change, there are going
to be some initial growing pains. To assist with the transition, a
webpage re-direct will be implemented for high-priority webpages for
at least a few months after the transition date.

We apologize for any inconvenience and appreciate your patience as
we go through this major transition. If you have any questions or
concerns, please contact our webmasters at sr-bmx.webmaster@noaa.gov

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Spy & Numbers Stations Decoded

Radio in its various forms has always been a fascinating hobby to me. My first exposure to radio, other than me having the AM radio blasting music, was listening to my brother, Sonny K4FHX’s ham radio, and the weird sounds emanating from his speaker. When he got out of the hobby in the early sixties he gave me his equipment. But, I was six years old, and of course I destroyed every piece of that Hallicrafters gear. All that is left today is the Speed-X straight key, which I still use to this day.

My next exposure to radio was with my Uncle Luther’s shortwave radio, listening to the strange squeaks and squawks and some tick-tocking station with a guy saying “thirteen hours forty five minutes Greenwich Mean Time”.

Seeing that I was hooked, my parents gave me a Ross shortwave radio the Christmas of 1972.

I would stay up into the wee hour of the night listening, usually with the lights turned off, so my parents wouldn’t worry why I wasn’t asleep, listening to stations all over the country and all over the world.

The radio did not have a beat frequency oscillator or BFO, so I was unable to listen to sideband signals. All I heard were people who sounded like they were gargling with wet socks.

One of the mysteries of those days was something called “Spy and Numbers” stations.

These would come on at irregular intervals up and down the band, but, usually just below the 40 meter band. They were always in AM, and though I have heard them in English and German, the strongest were in Spanish, usually female, with a strange regularly spaced clacking sound in the background.

The typical format was as follows:

Either at the top or the bottom of the hour after about 20 minutes of a carrier with that strange clacking sound, the call would begin something like this:

“Attencion, attencion…..quatro cinco uno…..quatro cinco uno…..quarto cinco uno…
uno ocho sies ocho quatro ocho tres uno tres……repeata….. uno ocho sies ocho quatro ocho tres uno tres…..fine…fine…”

And then the signal would disappear as mysteriously as it had appeared.

What were these signals?

The leading theory was that they originated in Cuba and were being sent to covert operatives in the US. But, nothing could ever be proved.

Until now.

Recently Dateline NBC had the story of an ex-Soviet spy who defected and fell off the radar and for decades lived and raised a family using an assumed identity. In the story he said he received his instructions “from numbers given in Spanish on a shortwave radio from Cuba”.

Mystery solved. But, how did it work?

The following is what I was told by a gentleman, now deceased who was in the Air Force OSI – Office Of Special Investigations. I feel safe describing this because many years have passed and technology has progressed to where things are delivered via “other means”.

The code was an unbreakable code.

To use it you simply needed two people with two identical books, with the same publisher and edition. Which book didn’t matter really. It could be Macbeth, The Gospel of Luke, The ALERT Newsletter, etc.
They just had to have the same page number, paragraph and word location.

The first three numbers given after the “Attencion” was the operative’s number.

The long sequence of numbers told where to look in the book.

“uno ocho sies ocho quatro ocho tres uno tres” or in English “106040313”

Which mean Page 106, Paragraph 04, Line 03, Word 13

They would simply write down the numbers and look them up in the book.

But, which book? That’s what made it unbreakable. Only they two parties involved knew which book, and they would change that on a regular basis or as needed.

Let’s say Agent 008 (that’s 007’s clutzy partner) needed money. He might use the Gideon Bible, and choose:

“my God will meet all your NEEDS according to the riches of his glory in Christ Jesus” and then
“For the love of MONEY is the root of all evil…”

After deciphering the page, paragraph and locating words 7 & 5 the recipient would that know Agent 008 “needs money”.

And so ends the mystery of the Spy & Numbers stations.

This is 008 signing out…

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the combination of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

September Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is fading and disappearing into the sunset, below Venus and Jupiter. By the end of the month he will reappear in the morning sky and will reach his highest point above the eastern horizon on September 28, when he will be 17.9 degrees above the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest altitude above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Venus and Jupiter are very low in bright twilight, shining at magnitudes –3.8 and –1.7 respectively. Venus is creeping a little higher each night and Jupiter sinks farther to Venus’s lower right. Their separation grows by 1° per day.
Mars, magnitude –0.3, in upper Scorpius is moving rapidly eastward away from Saturn, magnitude +0.4 and the red star Antares, magnitude +1.0, below Saturn. Look for them in the southwest after dusk. The triangle they make is again widening.
Uranus shining at magnitude 5.8, in Pisces is well up by midnight in the southeast.
Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius also is well up by midnight in the south. Neptune will be at his closest approach to Earth on September 3. Due to its extreme distance the giant blue planet will appear as a tiny blue dot in all but the most powerful telescopes.
New Moon occurs September 1 at 4:03 AM CDT when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.

There will be an annular solar eclipse on September 1, but, it will only be visible from Africa.

An annular solar eclipse occurs when the Moon is too far away from the Earth to completely cover the Sun. This results in a ring of light around the darkened Moon. The Sun’s corona is not visible during an annular eclipse.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 22 at 9:12 AM CDT, when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 16 at 2:05 PM CDT. This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year it is also “Harvest Moon”. Harvest moon get its name because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so occasionally it can occur with October “Hunters Moon”.

There will be a penumbral lunar eclipse on September 16, but, it will only be visible from Eastern Europe, Eastern Africa, Asia & Western Australia.

A penumbral lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes through the Earth’s partial shadow, or penumbra. During this type of eclipse the Moon will darken slightly but not completely.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

3375 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 25, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on September 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

Do you know of anyone interested in becoming a ham? If so, there is a great opportunity for them.

On August 13, ARES and the Amateur Radio Advancement group ARA will conduct a “Ham Cram” for the Technician License.

A Ham Cram is a single day class that teaches everything needed to earn an FCC radio amateur license, followed by a testing session.

This class will take place at the 2020 building on University Ave or 8th Ave South, beginning at 8:00 AM. The cost is $15 (donations for the groups time and transportation will be welcome also).

Seating is limited to 35 people so please call Jefferson County EC, Johnnie Knobloch at 205-934-7392 to reserve a spot.

Incidentally, food will not be provided, so bring your own lunch.

Once they are licensed, remembering how it was when YOU first got your license, when YOU had to deal with snarky, whiney, nitpicking know it all old goats, be sure YOU welcome them warmly, YOU include them and YOU gently mentor them as the good Elmer that YOU ARE should do.

Says old goat WD4NYL, Pollutant Of The Airwaves since 1977…

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HEAT & Its Dangers

Heat and heat related illnesses are not something to be shrugged off. About 237 Americans die each year due to heat related illnesses.

In arid regions such as the desert southwest, the heat lacks humidity, and though it will be blazing hot, the evaporation helps the body combat the heat, as evaporating sweat helps cool to body down.
A “dry heat” is not as uncomfortable as the “humid heat” which we endure.

As mentioned in last month’s newsletter, climatologically our summer conditions are similar to that of those experienced in the Amazon Valley, with the same heat, humidity, tropical downpours and mosquitoes that can carry small dogs away.

In our semitropical climate, humidity from the Gulf works against our bodies cooling mechanisms – internal blood circulation adjustments, sweating and evaporation, not allowing the body to combat the heat, and we are in placed in a seriously dangerous situation.

Though you are rapidly losing your body’s water reserves, up to 1.5 liters or 1.6 quarts per hour through sweating, the sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to dissipate the heat in the high humidity.

We are familiar with the term “heat index”. This index was developed to help identify the danger zone, and express how the combined temperature and humidity “feels” or affects the human body.

The Shaded Heat Index can be determined using this chart.

I picked this version because it uses the Dewpoint. Some charts use Relative Humidity, which is fine, except the humidity is constantly varying with temperature fluctuations, while the Dewpoint usually remains fairly steady.

Heat Index Chart (Temperature & Dewpoint)
Dewpoint
(° F) Temperature (° F)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105
65 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 110 112
66 94 95 97 98 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 112
67 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 105 106 107 108 110 111 112 113
68 95 97 98 99 100 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 112 113 114
69 96 97 99 100 101 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 113 114 115
70 97 98 99 101 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 114 115 116
71 98 99 100 102 103 104 106 107 108 109 111 112 113 115 116 117
72 98 100 101 103 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 116 117 118
73 99 101 102 103 105 106 108 109 110 112 113 114 116 117 118 119
74 100 102 103 104 106 107 109 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121
75 101 103 104 106 107 108 110 111 113 114 115 117 118 119 121 122
76 102 104 105 107 108 110 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 123
77 103 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125
78 105 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 125 126
79 106 107 109 111 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 127 128
80 107 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 128 130
81 109 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 126 127 129 130 132
82 110 112 114 115 117 118 120 122 123 125 126 128 129 131 132 133
Note: Exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15° F

HEAT INDEX EFFECTS
80 to 90 degrees – Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
90 to 105 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
105 to 130 degrees – Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion are likely, and heatstroke is possible, with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
130 degrees and higher – Heatstroke or sunstroke are highly likely with continued exposure.

I hope you noticed the line stating that if you are in full sunlight the heat index can be up to 15 degrees higher than the indicated values.

Be exceedingly careful with your exposure to the heat and sunlight.

The Dew Point itself is a great indicator of how comfortable or miserable you will be when you step outside and adjust to the conditions

Dew Points

< 55 degrees – Pleasant
55-60 degrees – Comfortable
61-65 degrees – Getting Sticky
66-70 degrees – Uncomfortable
71-75 degrees – Oppressive
76+ – Miserable

To help combat the heat danger, stay indoors as much as possible, hugging the air conditioner. Avoid strenuous activity. Wear loose, lightweight, light colored clothing made from cotton or linen, as they absorb your sweat and help with cooling.

Your clothing is a vital defense. That’s why the age old habit of guys trying to act macho by stripping off as much as is legally possible, to show off their abs, pecs and biceps, isn’t the most intelligent move that one can make.

You want to dress more like Sheik Omar, and less like a Krispy Critter.

Wear a good sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher.

Drink lots & lots of water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, as they dehydrate the body.

Sports drinks are ok for a once one-jug drink to help replenish your electrolytes, but the body absorbs water much more quickly. Sports drinks are so loaded with minerals that the body misidentifies the juice as food and waits for it to be digested before sending it on to the lower innards to be absorbed into the body. Your dehydration worsens though your stomach is full of liquid. So make water your primary drink.

Drink. Drink even if you aren’t thirsty. If you feel thirsty, you are already dehydrated.

A rough guide to the minimum water intake needed to maintain body fluid while at rest in the shade is as follows:

At 68 degrees drink 1.2 liters or 1.3 quarts
At 77 degrees drink 1.4 liters or 1.5 quarts
At 86 degrees drink 2.5 liters or 2.6 quarts
At 95 degrees drink 5.1 liters or 5.4 quarts

Note that just walking may double these requirements.

It is better to drink small amounts of water, such as 250 – 350 milliliters or ¼ to 1/3 quarts every 20 minutes, rather than try to gulp large amounts of water every hour.

To get down and earthy with the subject, if your urine is clear and there is a lot of it, you are properly hydrated, if this is not the case, if the urine dark or there is little or none being produced, you are in serious danger.

Dehydration has been found to compromise mental function by dropping our brainpower by 25%. This keeps you from thinking straight & doing the smart things you need to do to help keep you above the daisies.

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Recognizing and Treating
Heat-Related Illnesses
Even short periods in high temperatures can cause health problems that range from minor to life threatening. It is important to recognize the signs and symptoms of heat-related illness in order to ensure proper treatment.
Heat Rash
Heat rash is a skin irritation caused by excessive sweating during hot, humid weather. It can occur at any age but is most common in young children.
Symptoms:
Heat rash looks like a red cluster of pimples or small blisters, with intense tingling and itching. It is more likely to occur on the neck and upper chest, in the groin, under breasts, and in elbow creases and other skin folds.
Treatment:
• The best treatment is to provide a cooler, less humid environment.
• Cleanse area.
• Keep the affected area dry.
• Dusting powder may be used to increase comfort, but avoid using ointments or creams as they keep the skin warm and moist and may make the condition worse.
Treating heat rash is simple and usually does not require medical assistance.
Sunburn
Sunburn should be avoided because it is damaging to the skin and reduces the body’s ability to dissipate heat. While the discomfort is usually minor and healing occurs in about a week, some sunburns can be more severe and require medical attention.

Symptoms:
Skin becomes red, painful and abnormally warm after sun exposure. In severe cases there is also swelling, blisters, fever and headache.
Treatment:
Consult a doctor if an infant under 1 year of age is sunburned or has the following symptoms: fever, fluid-filled blisters and/or severe pain.
Tips for treating sunburn:
• Use Sunscreen with an SPF of 15 or higher.
• Avoid repeated sun exposure.
• Apply cool compresses or immerse the affected area in cool water.
• Apply moisturizing lotion to affected areas. Do not use salve, butter or ointment.
• Do not break blisters.
• Do not apply ice.
Heat Cramps
Usually heat cramps affect people who sweat a lot during strenuous activity. When the body is depleted of salt and moisture, the low salt level in the muscles causes painful cramps. Heat cramps may also be a symptom of heat exhaustion.
Symptoms:
Heat cramps are muscle pains or spasms that usually occur in the abdomen, arms, or legs, which may occur in association with strenuous activity.
Treatment:
• If you have a heart problem or are on a low sodium diet, seek medical attention.
• Stop all activity and rest in a cool, shaded area.
• Do not return to the strenuous activity for a few hours after the cramps subside, further exertion may lead to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.
• Seek medical attention for heat cramps that do not subside within one hour.
• Drink fluids such as water, fruit juices and sports drinks to rehydrate and replace salt and mineral levels.
Heat Exhaustion
Heat exhaustion is the body’s response to an excessive loss of water and salt contained in sweat. Those most prone to heat exhaustion are the elderly, people with high blood pressure and people working or exercising in a hot environment.
Symptoms:
Warning signs of heat exhaustion include:
• Heavy sweating
• Intense thirst
• Irritability
• Confusion
• Paleness
• Muscle cramps
• Tiredness
• Weakness
• Dizziness
• Blurred vision
• Headache
• Nausea
• Vomiting
• Fainting
• Skin may feel cool and moist
• Pulse rate will be fast and weak, and breathing will be fast and shallow
If untreated, heat exhaustion may progress to heat stroke. Seek medical attention immediately.
Treatment:
Cooling measures that may be effective include:
• Move to a cool area, or air-conditioned environment
• Cool, non-alcoholic beverages, as directed by your doctor
• Loosen clothing
• Rest with legs elevated
• Cool compresses to head, neck, face and inside of elbows.
• A cool shower, bath, or sponge bath
• Lightweight clothing
• Call 911 if condition worsens.
Heat Stroke
When heat stroke occurs the body’s temperature rises rapidly, the sweating mechanism fails, and the body is unable to cool down and body temperature may rise to 106ºF or higher. Heat stroke can cause death or permanent disability if emergency treatment is not given.
Symptoms:
Warning signs of heat stroke vary but may include:
• A body temperature above 103º
• Red, hot and dry skin (no sweating)
• Rapid, strong pulse
• Throbbing headache
• Dizziness
• Nausea
• Weakness
• Confusion
• Unconsciousness
Treatment:
Heat stroke can be a life-threatening emergency. Immediately begin cooling the victim and call for medical assistance.
• Call 911
• Get the victim to a shady area.
• Rapidly cool the victim using whatever methods are available:
o Wrap the victim in a cool, wet sheet and fan vigorously.
o Spray or sponge with cool water and fan.
o Immerse in a tub of cool shallow water only if awake and alert.
o Place in a cool shower.
• Monitor body temperature, and continue cooling efforts until the victim’s temperature drops to 101-102º.
• If emergency medical personnel are delayed, call a hospital emergency department for further instructions.
• Do not give fluids or food!
Courtesy of Johnson Controls & The Southern Nevada Health District

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Summer Heat & Dangers To Pets
Or
How To Not Roast Your Chihuahua

Recently as I was leaving a grocery store, I happened to glance towards the pet store up the street. There I saw an elderly gentleman walking out of the store with a small dog on leash. The gentleman seemed well pleased that the dog was prancing about as they crossed the blazing hot parking lot. The dog was prancing, to be sure, but, not due to happiness, but, due to its footpads being scorched.

With this in mind, this month we will discuss heat and pets.

Dogs generally don’t wear shoes. We do, and therefore we have no clue as to how hot the pavement really is.

When the weather radio or TV says it is “90 degrees”, there are a couple of things to consider. One is that the “official” temperature readings are not taken at ground level, but, by international standard they are taken in special “house” 2 meters or about 6 feet above ground level. This house has a double layered roof so that the temperature reading is not “contaminated” by the effects of direct sunlight, and the house is ventilated with louvers so that wind can flow freely, and the heat not build up inside like a hot box.

The actual ground level or surface temperature where Fido & Puss have to walk is much, much hotter.

I once conducted a series of experiments by placing thermometers at different places on the ground to see what temperatures the critters & their footpads were actually having to endure. I included grassy areas, concrete and asphalt. In some places, particularly the sidewalks and pavement, the temperature easily reached 150 degrees.

At temperatures this high second degree burns can occur within two minutes. Third degree burns can occur within three minutes of contact.

Then there is the question of Heat Index. If the “observed” temperature, again measured six feet above ground level, is 90 degrees and the humidity is 50%, the Heat Index is 105 degrees which is dangerous for heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat stroke in humans. If the actual surface temperature is 150 degrees, which again is very likely, the Heat Index at 50% humidity for the dog or cat is 385 degrees. Even if the humidity is much lower, say 25%, the Heat Index is still 230 degrees.

This places the animal in extreme danger of an imminent heat stroke.

Remember that dogs cannot tolerate too much heat. Their fur, which covers their entire bodies, prevents them from sweating. The only external surfaces not covered with fur is their nose and paw pads — which explains the damp paw prints you might find on the sidewalk on hot summer days. They can have a heatstroke just as easily, if not more so than we humans can.

You are not doing him a favor by forcing him to walk barefoot/bear paw on 140 degree pavement. To them it feels just as if you were taking a cigarette lighter and searing their paws.

You don’t want to shave outdoor pets either, by the way. If you remove their fur, you are also removing the only protection they from getting a serious sunburn.

All this said, if you think, as was advocated on a local news program, that you are doing Old Shep a favor by taking him for a walk during this heat to keep him from becoming bored and flabby, before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it really is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also.

And, if this sermon is hitting a deaf ear, go ahead and walk him, only you go barefoot also. That way you can both end up bonding in the ER together.

Or just take this well-meant advice and walk him in the morning or wait until the sun has set and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to sticking to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

Cats, incidentally usually have enough sense to find a shady cool spot. Make sure their water bowl is full. Or better yet, keep them inside. If you can, make them a permanent indoor feature, as they live much longer indoors.

That way dogs can’t get them and cars can’t squish them.

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August. 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, Mercury is very low in bright twilight visibility beginning about 15 minutes after sunset, just above the west-northwest horizon, with Venus keeping him company, nearby.

On August 16 Mercury will reach his highest point in the sky, or “greatest eastern elongation” of 27.4 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

Venus is very low, but, bright at magnitude -3.9, above the west-northwest horizon, 8 angular degrees from Mercury at the beginning of the month.

Mars is shining at magnitude -0.7 just to the right of the head of Scorpius.
Jupiter shining at magnitude -1.7 between Leo and Virgo, shines low in the twilight and sets as twilight ends.

On August 27 there will be a spectacular conjunction of Venus and Jupiter in the evening sky. The two bright planets will be extremely close, appearing only 0.06 degrees apart. Look for this impressive pairing in the western sky just after sunset.

Saturn, shining at magnitude +0.3 in Southern Ophiucus glows in the South at dusk, 6 degrees above the orange star Antares, and 11 degrees upper left of Mars.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.8 in Pisces is high in the Southern sky well before dawn begins.
Neptune, magnitude +7.8 in Aquarius, is high in the South well before the light of dawn.
The moon will disappear from the sky, its night side facing Earth, when New Moon occurs August 2 at 20:55 UTC or 3:55 PM CDT.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 12 & 13, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The waxing gibbous moon will set after midnight leaving a fairly dark sky, and if you can get away from city lights you should have a good show.
Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.
August’s full moon is “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans. This will occur August 18 at 9:26 UTC or 4:26 AM CDT.

3371 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 28, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on August 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/
Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone & Happy 4th of July!

With this month’s newsletter I wish to welcome our new President Dale Chambers KD4QHZ!

Dale has been very active in Civil Air Patrol, and was the Commander of the CAP in Bessemer and is well versed in Emergency Communications.…and I’ve known Dale for a long time, as we went to school together back in the Dark Ages, and can tell you that ALERT is in good hands.

So let’s make sure to encourage and support him as he leads ALERT into the future.

Try to attend our July 12 meeting as we welcome Dale!

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Why I Joined ALERT

This feature gives members an opportunity to share their stories of why they are members of ALERT. Why did you become a member of ALERT? What lessons have you learned?

Our first story is from Casey NZ20.

I’m Casey Benefield/NZ2O. I joined ALERT because of the influence of many good men while I was growing up. Looking back, everything happened in the most perfect order and timing, almost like it was a plan. Secondarily, I’m a bit of a geek when it comes to weather and technology, so I tend to push the envelope.

James Spann/WO4W visited my school when I was 7. If memory serves right, I was sent to the principal’s office after making a weather poster. I still remember the surprised look when I explained what was on it. I didn’t realize I had just explained convection/wind, nor could I spell convection.

Mark Parmley/NR4J introduced me to ham radio while on church mission trips from 1999-2003. I became licensed when I lived in Springfield, MO for work with HP. Springfield didn’t have a the same kind of wall-to-wall coverage that we enjoy in Alabama. Amateur radio and Skywarn helped me stay one step ahead, when I had no tornado shelter or basement.

At the ALERT table at Birminghamfest, Just John Miller/KI4VVM helped me understand how ALERT supports the NWS, by receiving the Skywarn and storm reports that I became fond of in Springfield. The final tipping point was April 27, 2011, where amateur radio rendered aid to my family, getting us out of the impacted area. I decided it was time for me to return that favor, to serve those in amateur radio, NWS, and the weather community that has kept me and my family safe for years, with those valuable early warnings and forecasts.


(Editors Note: Thank you Casey for your input and for your (and Russell & Justin’s) work on ALERT’s various social media presences:

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/K4NWS/
ALERT Blog – https://alert-alabama.org/blog/
Twitter – https://twitter.com/K4NWS
Google+ https://plus.google.com/+Alert-alabamaOrg?prsrc=5
Zello – http://zello.me/k/duTMd


Who will send our next story?

I hope it will be YOU!

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Alabama – Number One!

Alabama can boast of not only having the BCS National Championship team (Roll Tide), but we also lead the nation, according to USA Today, of having the “most dangerous weather.”

Per the USAToday feature: http://www.usatoday.com/videos/money/2016/05/19/84609416/
the top seven states are:

1. Alabama

5 year fatality rate: 61.1 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 295
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $4.4 Billion

2. Missouri

5 year fatality rate: 43.5 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 263
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $3.5 Billion

3. Nevada

5 year fatality rate: 36.1 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 101
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $133.0 Million

4. Wyoming

5 year fatality rate: 34.5 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 20
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $45 Million


5. Arkansas

5 year fatality rate: 30.8 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 91
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $1.2 Billion

6. Oklahoma

5 year fatality rate: 27.8 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 107
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: S3.3 Billion

7. Mississippi

5 year fatality rate: 26.4 (per million residents)
Total Fatalities 2011 – 2015: 79
Total Damage 2011 – 2015: $2.6 Billion

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the traditional period of the Dog Days as the 40 days beginning July 3 and ending August 11.

The Romans on the other hand said that the Dog Days ran from July 24 through August 24, or, alternatively, from July 23 through August 23, coinciding with the Sun and the Dog Star Sirius rising at the same time & their combined heat supposedly adding to the summer misery.

As you endure this heat, remember to drink lots of fluids, hug the shade & avoid the afternoon sun.

Also please resist the temptation to take Fido for a walk during the heat of the day. Remember that the “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level. It’s much, much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk bare paw, where it could easily be 150 degrees.

Before taking Muttley for a walk, place your hand on the pavement and see how hot it is. If it’s miserable to you, it will be miserable to him also. Just walk him in the morning or wait until the sun is setting and it cools off to a tolerable level and try to stick to grassy areas. Then go have a good time together.

The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year. Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.

This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”. According to this theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits. This is a local Birmingham rule, which the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS used for years.

In July the least rainfall falls in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide. July has an average of 103 tornadoes.

Hurricane activity increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent. By months end, one hurricane will have occurred. Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.

Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.

Looking skyward, Mercury is disappearing into the glow of sunrise, while Venus is hidden in the glow of sunset.

Mars is shining at magnitude -1.5 in Libra. It is the yellow orange point shining, but, not twinkling, in the South during and after dusk. Mars is shrinking and dimming in the night sky as the Earth pulls away from the Red Planet.

Jupiter shining at magnitude -1.9 at the hind foot of Leo The Lion shines in the West during and after dusk. He is almost the smallest he ever appears in the sky, being on the far side of his orbit from us.

On July 4 NASA’s Juno spacecraft is scheduled to arrive at Jupiter after a five year journey. Launched on August 5, 2011, Juno will be inserted into a polar orbit around the giant planet on or around July 4, 2016. From this orbit the spacecraft will study Jupiter’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Juno will remain in orbit until October 2017, when the spacecraft will be de-orbited to crash into Jupiter.

Saturn, shining at magnitude +0.2 in Southern Ophiucus glows 20 degrees East or left of Mars.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.9 in Pisces in the East before dawn begins.
Neptune, magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is higher in the Southeast before the light of dawn.
Recently the Hubble Space Telescope spotted a large a dark vortex in the atmosphere of Neptune. Though similar features were seen during the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune in 1989 and by the Hubble Space Telescope in 1994, this vortex is the first one observed on Neptune in the 21st century.
Neptune’s dark vortices are high-pressure systems and are usually accompanied by bright “companion clouds,” which are also now visible on the distant planet. The bright clouds form when the flow of ambient air is perturbed and diverted upward over the dark vortex, causing gases to likely freeze into methane ice crystals. Dark vortices coast through the atmosphere like huge, lens-shaped gaseous mountains and the companion clouds are similar to the lens shaped orographic clouds that sometimes appear over mountains on Earth, which are often mistaken for UFO’s.
On July 4 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will be invisible. New Moon will occur at 11:01 UTC or 6:01 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

July’s Full Moon occurs July 19 at 22:57 or UTC 5:57 PM CDT, and is called “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore. This moon gets its name because the male buck deer begin to grow their new antlers at this time of year. It has also been called “Full Thunder Moon” & “Hay Moon”.

Make sure to take time to enjoy the glow of Earth’s primary moon. “Primary moon?”…“What’s he talking about?”

In the never ending game of celestial billiards or perhaps heavenly square-dancing, objects are constantly being pulled, turned, captured and released by the competing gravitational fields of the Sun, planets and moons.

Occasionally an object can be captured by a planet and become a permanent fixture as a moon, such as Phobos and Diemos, the moons of Mars. Other times objects, TCOs (Temporarily Captured Objects) can be temporarily captured by a larger object as in the case of asteroid 2006 RH120, which astronomers with the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona found orbiting the Earth in 2006. This was a tiny asteroid measuring just a few yards across, but it still qualified as a natural satellite just as much as the Moon. But, by June 2007, it was gone, having been pulled out of orbit by the gravity of the Moon.

Astronomers at Cornel University say “At any given time, there should be at least one natural Earth satellite of 1-meter diameter orbiting the Earth”. These NEOs (Near Earth Objects) orbit the Earth for about ten months, enough time to make about three orbits, before leaving.

Then we come to the case of asteroid 2016 HO3.

On June 15, 2016 NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena announced the discovery of 2016 HO3: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2016-154

“A small asteroid has been discovered in an orbit around the sun that keeps it as a constant companion of Earth, and it will remain so for centuries to come.”

“As it orbits the sun, this new asteroid, designated 2016 HO3, appears to circle around Earth as well. It is too distant to be considered a true satellite of our planet, but it is the best and most stable example to date of a near-Earth companion, or ‘quasi-satellite.’”

“Since 2016 HO3 loops around our planet, but never ventures very far away as we both go around the sun, we refer to it as a ‘quasi-satellite’ of Earth,” said Paul Chodas, manager of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object (NEO) Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.”

“One other asteroid — 2003 YN107 — followed a similar orbital pattern for a while over 10 years ago, but it has since departed our vicinity. This new asteroid is much more locked onto us. Our calculations indicate 2016 HO3 has been a stable quasi-satellite of Earth for almost a century, and it will continue to follow this pattern as Earth’s companion for centuries to come.”

“In its yearly trek around the sun, asteroid 2016 HO3 spends about half of the time closer to the sun than Earth and passes ahead of our planet, and about half of the time farther away, causing it to fall behind. Its orbit is also tilted a little, causing it to bob up and then down once each year through Earth’s orbital plane. In effect, this small asteroid is caught in a game of leap frog with Earth that will last for hundreds of years.”

“The asteroid’s orbit also undergoes a slow, back-and-forth twist over multiple decades. The asteroid’s loops around Earth drift a little ahead or behind from year to year, but when they drift too far forward or backward, Earth’s gravity is just strong enough to reverse the drift and hold onto the asteroid so that it never wanders farther away than about 100 times the distance of the moon,” said Chodas. “The same effect also prevents the asteroid from approaching much closer than about 38 times the distance of the moon. In effect, this small asteroid is caught in a little dance with Earth.”

So, next time you look at the moon and He looks lonely up there, don’t worry. Though you will never spot it, since it’s so faint, he has a wee friend (about 130–330 feet in diameter) up there waltzing with him.

The Delta-Aquariad Meteor shower peaks on the night of July 28th into the morning of the 29th.
This shower annually occurs from July 12 through August 23 is made up of debris from Comets Marsden Kracht and produces a ZHR or Zenith Hourly Rate of 20 meteors per hour. The second quarter moon will block most of the fainter meteors, but, with patience you should be able to see a few good ones.

Also, though it won’t peak until the night and morning of August 12 & 13, the Perseid Meteor Shower begins July 17, and lasts until August 24. This shower, associated with comet Swift-Tuttle will peak at 60 meteors per hour in August.

3285 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of June 23, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on July 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

Hi everyone,

I hope all is going well & that you are finding a nice cool spot out of the pre-summer heat and showers.

The biggest ALERT news of the month concerns our recent elections. At our last meeting the ALERT elections were held for the 2016 – 2017 term.

The Officers for 2016 – 2017 are:

President: Dale Chambers KD4QHZ
Vice-President & Membership: Roger Parsons KK4UDU
Secretary: Justin Glass N0ZO
Treasurer: Johnny Knobloch KJ4OPX
NWS Liaison: Russell Thomas KV4S

Per the ALERT Bylaws our new Officers will assume their positions at the July 12 meeting.

Thanks to all of our new officers for their service to our organization!

One thing which will remain the same is our newsletter. I will continue on as the Editor-In-Chief, and hopefully will be able to provide interesting items for your enjoyment.

I will also continue as the Net Manager of the ALERT Sunday Nite Net. If you have not checked in to our net I invite you to join us. We meet at 7PM Sunday on 146.88 MHz PL 88.5 hz.

I hope to see you there!

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Why I Joined ALERT

This feature, which I hope will become a regular feature, will give members an opportunity to share their stories of why they are members of ALERT. Why did you become a member of ALERT? What lessons have you learned?

Our first story is from Ronnie WX4RON

My name is Ronnie King and my call sign is WX4RON. Here is ‘my’ story: I initially joined ALERT in 2011 after renewing my license in October of 2010. I was trying to get involved in as many ham radio groups as I could because i was new to the Jefferson county area as a resident and as a ham, living in Hoover, starting in August 2009. I had Joined The BARC, the SCARC and I think that I joined the SSARC also.

However, I stayed on with ALERT because I liked the group of hams from many clubs who had partnered together to make the Organization known as ALERT. I liked the staff at the NWS / BMX Office and as I became familiar with all of these people, it was evident to me that we all had the same common goal: the safety and survival of our communities. I was impressed with the skills and cohesiveness displayed from everyone involved in ALERT and the NWS / BMX office so much that I wanted to become an active part of this group.

It has been my privilege and Honor to be a part of ALERT for the past 4 years roughly. Thank you everyone for allowing me to be there / here.

(Editors Note: Thank you Ronnie for your input and for your leadership as President these last three years. We wish you well.)

Who will send our next story?

I hope it will be YOU!

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. NOAA has released their seasonal prediction, which calls for a “near normal” season with 10 – 16 named storms, 4 – 8 hurricanes and 1 – 4 major hurricanes.

Shortly before his death at age 86, Colorado State University Professor William Gray and his designated successor, Dr. Phillip Klotzbach also predicted a “near average season” with 13 named storms, 5 of which could become hurricanes, 3 possibly being category 3 or higher.

Forecasts by the UK Met Office issued May 12, is calling for a slightly above average season with 14 named storms, which is above the 1980 – 2010 average of 12 storms. This would include 8 hurricanes, not counting Hurricane Alex which formed out of season in January.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really how many storms actually do form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.

This year our tropical season forgot to read the calendar, as we already have had two named storms – Hurricane Alex, which was the first January storm since 1938 and Tropical Storm Bonnie, which is currently heading for South Carolina.

With the “official” 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.

Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan and Katrina.
2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 20
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM

* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:30PM Central & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but you only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may actually give a call for general check-ins. But, don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.

Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”

Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.

Learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.

Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ – Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html – Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html – Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,
charts and satellite imagery can be found on my website www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and
clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

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Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball

I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.

The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball:

The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain and support is four storms.

If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.

If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.

If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storms circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.

Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.

If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.

A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.

The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving, can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward.
If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.

A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.

Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.

This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 16 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.

The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Felix, which took just 51 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.

Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.

When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, such as http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/, you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.

Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.

Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.

If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.

If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be effected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.

If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.

Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.

Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrenghtened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.

Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.

Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.

Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.

Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:

Wind Direction Storm Center Location

South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North

Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.

My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.

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NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s

Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf For the Atlantic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf For the Eastern Pacific

Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.”

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2016 Tropical Cyclone Names

The 2015 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone names are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie & Walter.

Note that the names are used on a six-year rotation & that this list will return in 2021. Only names of catastrophic or damaging storms are retired. This is why you will never have another Andrew, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Gilbert, Ivan, Katrina or Opal, to name a few ne’er-do-well storms.

If so many storms occur that the list is depleted, as occurred in 2005, the storm names revert to the Greek alphabet. In 2005 five Greek Alphabet storms occurred the last being Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 29, 2005.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.

What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.

The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

Looking skyward, at the first of the month Mercury is low in the Eastern horizon at sunrise and will reach His highest elevation, 24.2 degrees from the Sunday June 5.

Venus is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

Mars is shining at magnitude -2.0 at the head of Scorpius in the Southeast, nearly as bright as Jupiter, high in the Southwest.

At the first of the month Mars will be the largest and brightest until July 2018, forming a triangle with
the red star Antares to the lower left of Mars and Saturn to the left of Antares.

If you have a telescope, take a closer look. The rings of Saturn are easily seen, as is the ruddy disk of Mars. The Red Planet is just finishing winter in its southern hemisphere, so look for the bright polar cap of the Martian South Pole.

Jupiter in Southern Leo border is high in the South at twilight, shining at magnitude -2.2. The telescope you used to peek at Mars and the rings of Saturn will reveal the cloud bands of Jupiter and the nightly dance of His four largest moons, Europa Callisto, Ganymede and Io, the most volcanically active world in our solar system.

Saturn, shining at magnitude +0.1 just above the head of Scorpius, as mentioned forms a triangle with Mars and Antares. He will make his closest approach to Earth on June 2nd. His rings are tilted 26.1degrees from edgewise, making for a beautiful display in telescopes. While viewing the rings you may notice an object nearby. This is largest moon, Titan, which having an atmosphere twice as thick as Earth’s and stable hydrocarbon seas, lakes and rivers filled with liquid ethane, methane and dissolved nitrogen, also holds the distinction of being the only other moon, besides the Earth’s Moon, having had a spacecraft land on its surface. The European Space Agency’s Huygens probe landed on Titan on January 14, 2005 near the Xanadu Region, a highly reflective area on Titan’s leading hemisphere

Uranus is veiled by the glow of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is low in the East-Southeast before the first light of dawn.

New Moon will occur June 4 at 9:59 PM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 20 at 6:02 AM CDT. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” & “Honey Moon”.

Summer Solstice will occur at 5:34 PM CDT on June 20. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

Mark June 25 on your calendar and think about Christmas. Why? Because this is how Christmas, which is six months away, feels like in Australia and Brazil on December 25.

The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.

3268 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 19, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on June 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

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