Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The colors of Fall are brightening all around us, which is one of the “treats” of the seasons.
The “trick” of the season is that we have now entered our second tornado season.

So, this is a good time to review your emergency plans and check your emergency equipment.

Are you still ready?

Ask yourselves these simple questions.

Can you receive weather warnings? This includes at home, at work and on the road, even with a power outage.

Do you have a place where you can take shelter at home, at work or on the road?

And, if a tornado strikes near you, do you know what to do?

Is your emergency equipment still ready? This includes radios, supplies, kits and tools.

These are questions that need to be asked and any necessary actions taken.

You and your family’s life depend on it. For though ALERT responds to the NWS to take storm reports, our primary responsibility is to take care of ourselves, our families and then our community.

So take time to learn about disaster preparedness. Think about what you will do if “it” happens to you. Educate your family, friends, coworkers and neighbors as to what they can do and why they should prepare also.

If your message meets unreceptive ears, don’t worry. Those little seeds of knowledge can grow into large trees. And, knowledge saves lives.

And, saving lives is what we are in “the business” for.

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The Mythological F6 Tornado?

May 27, 1997 started unremarkably in South Central Texas, but, it would soon become a date etched into the meteorological history books.

As is the ways of the ocean of air in which we live, the potions brewed in the Witches Cauldron of Circumstances that made conditions ripe for a tornado outbreak.

So it was that at 12:54 AM CDT the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued Tornado Watch 338 which was effective from 1:15 PM to 7:00 PM CDT, which included Williamson County Texas.

At 3:30 PM the NWS Austin/San Antonio Weather Forecast Office, also known as NWSFO EWX, issued a Tornado Warning for Williamson County until 7:00 PM, stating “At 3:25 PM a tornadic thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of Jarral (sic) moving southeast at 10 MPH. This storm has had a history of producing tornadoes and large hail. The city of Jarrel (sic) is in the path of this storm.”

Between 3:15 and 3:20 what was to become known as the “Jarrell TX Tornado” formed as a F0 or F1 tornado and rapidly intensified (explosively is the term the NOAA report used) and touched down as a thin pencil-like tornado near the Bell-Williamson County line.

Even though the Jarrell storm was producing a mesocyclone and a violent tornado, the radar reflectivity field did not show a distinct hook echo directly preceding the tornado. A small hook was apparent on the Granger radar data after the tornadic circulation developed. The NOAA report stated “Although most supercells contain mesocyclones on the right rear flank with respect to storm motion, the mesocyclones on this day were located on the front flank (southwest quadrant) as they moved slowly south-southwestward. The difference in mesocyclone location was probably due to enhanced southwestward propagation along the boundary. Despite the fact that the reflectivity features were not typical and could have somewhat confused a radar interpreter, the rotational signals were clear and easy to follow.”

Although still thin, it was already powerful. It scoured a cotton field down to a depth of 18 inches. Next, it moved on to a wheat field, plucking out the wheat shafts by the millions and then propelling these million arrows and impaling the 300 cows that were in the field beyond that. Its funnel rapidly intensified into a violent ¾ mile wide multiple vortex tornado at around 3:45 pm CDT.

At 3:48 pm CDT the tornado struck the Double Creek Estates neighborhood in the northwestern portion of Jarrell, as a slow-moving wedge tornado, moving only 15 MPH, subjecting the neighborhood to prolonged tornadic winds.

The storm scoured and vacuumed up 18 – 24 inches of topsoil, debarked and shredded trees, snapped power poles at their bases, then the slow-moving wedge tornado completely destroyed
all 38 houses including houses well-constructed and bolted to their foundations, leaving only slab foundations. Cars were picked up, sandblasted, torn into pieces and thrown long distances, some more than half a mile. Some of the vehicles were blasted into many pieces and strewn across fields. Other vehicles were never found at all. Nearby vehicles that remained relatively intact were sandblasted down to their frames, flattened and completely caked with mud and grass.

So were the victims. The tornado victims sustained such extreme physical trauma that recovery teams had difficulty distinguishing human remains and body parts from animal remains scattered throughout the area. Many of the human remains were never recovered at all.

Those few who did miraculously survive stated it was like being inside a vacuum cleaner.

One lady said she was riding a mower on her lawn when she saw the tornado bearing down on her. She ran inside her home, grabbed a blanket, jumped into a bathtub and pulled the blanket over her head. The house blew apart around her, and the storm pushed her violently for hundreds of feet, eventually tossing her out of the bathtub. When it passed, she was badly bruised and cut, but still alive.

The tornado produced some of the most extreme ground scouring ever documented. When the tornado crossed county roads CR 308, CR 305, and then CR 307, approximately 525 feet of asphalt was ripped off each of the roadways and pieces of concrete were chipped out of their slabs.
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A small-steel frame recycling facility was completely leveled, leaving nothing of the structure at all but the foundation and a few mangled steel beams.

The tornado was so fierce that it left virtually no sizable debris. This produced a problem in judging its strength, as the tornado left no damage indicators with which to judge higher winds, but video of the tornado shows extremely violent rotation and updraft winds comparable to other F5 tornados.

The original Fujita Scale in use from 1971 to 2007 started at F0 with wind speeds from 40 – 72 MPH or “Light Damage” to F5 with wind speeds of 261 – 318 MPH or “Incredible Damage”. Dr. Fujita intended that F0 through F5 be used in practice, but, included F6, which he phrased as “inconceivable tornado”, to allow for wind speeds exceeding F5 or more specifically from from 318 to 372 MPH and for possible future advancements in damage analysis. The original scale actually went up to F12 to Mach 1 the speed of sound, 738 MPH. The scale was originally designed to bridge gap between the Beaufort Scale used to judge wind speeds since the days of sailing ships and the Mach scale of supersonic speeds.

Newspaper articles from 1997 reported wind speeds from 400 – 500 mph, a later paper by the University of Wisconsin stated 260 MPH. In truth there is no way of knowing the true wind speed of this tornado.

Many tornado researchers, after reviewing aerial damage photographs of Double Creek Estates, considered the Jarrell storm to be the most violent tornado they had ever seen in terms of damage intensity. In fact it is said Dr. Fujita felt this was the closest to an F6 as you could get, but, it was unprovable.

The Enhanced Fujita Scale we now use leaves EF5 as open ended, for at the higher end wind speeds of an EF5 it becomes impossible to determine the wind speed based on the damage pattern, as the destruction becomes too great.

One particularly sad note concerned Amateur Radio.

In NOAA’s “Service Assessment, The Central Texas Tornadoes of May 27, 1997” it states:

“Facts, Findings and Recommendations

A. Observations

Finding 1:
The amateur radio base station at NWSFO EWX was not activated for Tornado Watch #338. The NWSFO EWX did try to contact the amateur radio coordinator for Tornado Watch #340 but could not raise him. They also could not contact a backup coordinator. No one on duty at NWSFO EWX knew how to turn on the amateur radio equipment for passive monitoring. Therefore, vital spotter information was not received via this amateur radio link. A meteorologist intern at NWSFO EWX indicated he did receive one report via a phone call from an amateur radio operator.

Recommendation 1:
Personnel at NWSFO EWX should be trained in how to turn on the amateur radio equipment so that they can at least hear reports, even if the network is not activated. NWSFO EWX should also work with the amateur radio coordinator on backup procedures for contacting key people in impending emergencies.”

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/jarrell.pdf (23rd page of PDF, 15th page of report)

The lesson for groups such as ours is the NWS REALLY DOES need and value amateur radio assistance during severe weather. This may seem obvious, but, in today’s world of smartphones, wall-to-wall TV coverage and the plethora of social media routes, amateur radio can sometimes seem like an archaic relic to some. In truth our role is just as vital today as it was in 1997 or at any time in past. They consider us a vital resource, not necessary nuisance.

Whether it is used during hurricane relief, earthquake aftermaths or storm spotting and post storm response, amateur radio plays a crucial role that cannot be overstated.

“When all else fails there is amateur radio” is a true truism.

It’s our job to make sure amateur radio doesn’t fail.

We do this by volunteering, keeping current in our training and not being lulled to sleep when the quiet times come and by remaining “reachable” when we are needed during an emergency.

For as surely as the sun rises in the east, the time will come when you will receive the words “NWS Requests Callout”.

It is our job to be ready.

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Mark’s Almanac

With the arrival of November we enter our second tornado season. Alabama and the Southeast are “blessed” by being the only area on Earth having two tornado seasons. And, the cause of the second season is the same as the spring season – clashes of cold and warm air masses. The cold air of winter is invading and trying to push the warmth of the summer back into the sea, which is the same process of springtime.

This second season is often more destructive than the spring season. From 1951 to 2016 there have been 267 November tornadoes in Alabama resulting in 53 fatalities and 1123 injuries. The third largest tornado outbreak occurred on November 24 – 25 2001 when 36 tornadoes occurred and 21 tornadoes occurred during the outbreak of November 23 – 24 2004.

November was Alabama’s leading tornado month from 2001 to 2011 until the dual outbreaks of April 15 and April 27 2011 erased that record.

So beware of a warm & muggy November day. Especially one with a south wind, as something may really be “in the air”.

The Hurricane threat greatly diminishes, with hurricane activity occurring mainly in the open Atlantic, threatening the Eastern Seaboard, but usually veering off into sea as cold fronts off the East Coast deflect them. Hurricanes can still form in the Caribbean, which usually visit the Yucatan, but can enter the Gulf.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 90 Tropical Storms and 59 hurricanes, 5 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable November hurricanes are:

The 1932 Cuba hurricane, known also as the Hurricane of Santa Cruz del Sur or the 1932 Camagüey Hurricane. Although forming as a tropical depression on October 30, it became the only Category 5 Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and was the deadliest and one of the most intense tropical cyclones in Cuban history. On November 6, the tropical cyclone reached its peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. The storm weakened to Category 4 intensity as it came ashore in Cuba’s Camagüey Province on November 9 with winds of 150 mph. The storm took 3,033 lives.

Hurricane Ida, in 2009 was the strongest land falling tropical cyclone during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ida formed on November 4 in the southwestern Caribbean, and within 24 hours struck the Nicaragua coast with winds of 80 mph. It weakened significantly over land, although it restrengthened in the Yucatán Channel to peak winds of 105 mph. Ida weakened and became an extratropical cyclone in the northern Gulf of Mexico before spreading across the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida contributed to the formation of a nor’easter that significantly affected the eastern coast of the United States.

1985’s Hurricane Kate was the latest Hurricane in any calendar year to strike the United States.
Kate formed on November, 15 and reached hurricane intensity on November 16, and reached Category 2 intensity three days later. Kate struck the northern coast of Cuba on November 19. Once clear of land, she strengthened quickly, becoming a Category 3 storm and reached its peak intensity of 120 mph. On November 21 Kate came ashore near Mexico Beach, Florida, as Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph.

Hurricane Lenny, or Wrong Way Lenny, occurred in 1999. It is the second-strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record, behind the 1932 Cuba hurricane. Lenny formed on November 13 in the western Caribbean Sea and moved retrograde from the West to East passing South of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. He reached hurricane status south of Jamaica on November 15 and rapidly intensified over the northeastern Caribbean on November 17, attaining peak winds of 155 mph near Saint Croix in the United States Virgin Islands. It gradually weakened while moving through the Leeward Islands, eventually dissipating on November 23 over the open Atlantic Ocean.

1994’s Hurricane Gordon claimed 1122 lives in Haiti when it passed just west of the country as a tropical storm on November 13, 1994.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane seasons ends November 30.

Figure 2 – November Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 40.9 degrees at the beginning of the month to 34.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 10 hours 40 minutes on November 1 to 10 hours 07 minutes on November 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

November 1 Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 5:55 PM
November 15 Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 4:45 PM – After Daylight Savings Time Ends
November 31 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 4:39 PM

The blooms of summer have faded, but you may find yourself still sneezing, due to ragweed and mold.

Mold is a fall allergy trigger. You may think of mold growing in your basement or bathroom – damp areas in the house – but mold spores also love wet spots outside. Piles of damp leaves are ideal breeding grounds for mold.

Oh, and did I mention dust mites? While they are common during the humid summer months, they can get stirred into the air the first time you turn on your heat in the fall. Dust mites can trigger sneezes, wheezes, and runny noses.

November welcomes the peak of fall colors. For Birmingham the peak occurs around November 15, but the date can vary depending on your elevation & latitude.

Indian Summer and Squaw Winter continue to battle it out, but the cool or cold weather will eventually win, with the first average frost being on November 11.

The usual fall effects occur in North America with Canada’s Hudson Bay becoming unnavigable due to pack ice & icebergs. Navigation in the Great Lakes becomes perilous due to storms bringing the “Gales Of November” made famous in the Gordon Lightfoot song “The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald”.

And, don’t be surprised if you hear ducks overhead & see wedges of Canadian geese heading south for the winter. And if you see strange birds appearing in your front yard, remember that for 336 species of birds Alabama IS south for the winter.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury magnitude -0.2, will be at his highest altitude above the Western Horizon, or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” on November 6, when he will be 23.3 degrees above the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

On 8 November, Mercury will be very the new crescent moon in the western evening sky immediately after sunset.

On November 11, if one observes Mercury through a telescope, the planet will resemble a half lit first quarter moon, a phase also called “dichotomy”.

As the month progresses he will sink into the sunset, becoming invisible by November 19.

On November 27 Mercury will be at “Inferior Conjunction” as he moves between the Earth and the Sun.

Two days later on November 27, he will be at the closest distance to the Sun in his 88 day orbit, or he “Perihelion”.

Venus, just over 2.3 light minutes from Earth, is hidden in the glow of the sunrise at the beginning of the month, and then emerges into the eastern morning sky. A very old crescent moon may be seen above the dawn alongside Venus on November 6.

Venus will then get progressively higher each morning above the Eastern horizon.

We often take for granted that Venus is one of the most constant fixtures in our night sky, shining brightly in the mornings and evenings. Venus occasionally becomes the third brightest object in the sky after the sun and moon, and one of these times will be on the morning of November 29th.

Mars is growing dimmer as his distance increases from Earth, at magnitude -0.6. He shines highest in the south just after the end of twilight and continues to set around 1 AM.

On November 11 he will move from Capricornus into Aquarius. The First Quarter Moon passes near Mars on 15 November, passing 1 angular degree from the Red Planet

In a telescope Mars is 86% sunlit and is as gibbous as we ever see it.

Jupiter, magnitudes –1.7 in Libra is very low after sunset, just above the southwest horizon in bright twilight.

On November 2 Jupiter and Mercury will sit side by side above the Western horizon, with Mercury to the left. Binoculars will help.

Jupiter then moves into the glow of the Sun and will pass behind the far side of the Sun, or be in Superior Conjunction on November 26.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius glows yellow in the South-Southwest in late twilight.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.7, near the Aries-Pisces border in the Southeastern sky soon after nightfall. He is a mere 2.6 light hours away.

Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is also well up in the southeastern side of the sky soon after nightfall. He is currently 4.2 light hours away.

One thing that occasionally crosses my mind during flights of fancy and day dreaming is that since I’ve been a ham nearly 41 years, it is theoretically possible that some fleeting trace of the pulses of young Mark’s first shaky CW signal has actually reached one of the 81 star systems visible to the naked eye 41 light years away. Not to mention the nearly 1000 fainter systems lying there.

If that doesn’t spark an alien invasion, nothing will.

Our Sun from the farthest planet within this range appears as a faint 5.8 magnitude star to the many tentacled purple creatures buggish eyes – all 16 of them. As he, she or it wonders “is there anyone else out there?”

New Moon will occur November 7. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 16:02 UTC or 10:02 AM CST. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

In Europe on the evening of November 12, at 6:27 PM, the moon will “Occult” or pass in front of Pluto, as observed in London.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on November 14, when she will be 251246 miles from Earth.

The annual Leonid meteor shower occurs from November 6 – 30 and peaks on the night of November 17 & the morning of the 18th. Though the Leonids are an “average shower”, producing only an average of 15 meteors per hour, they are well known for producing bright meteors and fireballs.

This shower is also unique in that it has a cyclonic peak about every 33 years where hundreds of meteors per hour can be seen. That last of these occurred in 2001. The Leonids are produced by dust grains left behind by Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1865.

Its productivity varies per year, but it can deposit 12 to 13 tons of particles across the planet. Which is why having an atmosphere to shield us is such a nifty thing.

The waxing gibbous moon will set shortly after midnight leaving fairly dark skies for what could be a good early morning show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Leo, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Full Moon will occur at 05:40 UTC or 12:40 AM CST November 23. November’s Full Moon is called “Beaver Moon” in Native American folklore, because this was the time of year to set the beaver traps before the swamps and rivers froze. It has also been known as the Frosty Moon and the Hunter’s Moon.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on November 26, when she will be 227,809 miles or one and one quarter Light Seconds from Earth.

3826 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of October 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

Unfortunately one of the prime tools used to detect these worlds, the Kepler Space Telescope, which discovered 70% of these worlds, has ended its mission after 13 years, having finally run out of fuel.

Gladly there are years of data still to be reviewed and another 2900 possible planets to be vetted, most of which are expected to prove to be real.

Finally, don’t forget to set your clocks back one hour at 2 AM, Sunday morning November 4th, as Daylight Savings Time ends.

Remember that according to the National Time Act of 2014 states you MUST wait until 2 AM to reset your clocks, or you will be in violation of Section 15, Paragraph 114, Subset 195485 (24(234b)) (see page 4537) of said act.

Would I lie?

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This month’s meeting will be on November 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone and welcome to the October ALERT Newsletter.

Fall has arrived and with it we can look forward to the changing of the fall leaves, the occasional nip in the air, and the Hobgoblins that will visit us at the end of the month.

October is a fun time of the year, being not too hot and not too cold – the “Goldilocks” of seasons.

It is a time to enjoy fall football, the baseball playoffs and the last outdoor adventures of the year.

Here is hoping that you enjoy the days that this season brings, and the pretty weather October brings. Letting you rest before the storms of Fall.

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National Weather Service 25th Anniversary Open House

In celebration of the 25th Anniversary of the opening of the Birmingham NWS Forecast Office at the Shelby County Airport, the NWS will be hosting an open house Sunday October 27 from 10 AM to 3 PM.

The public is invited to see the operations area, meet the staff and look at a variety of displays from local first responders and core government and private partners.

Things to Do

There are activities for the whole family to enjoy at the Open House. Come prepared to learn about weather safety and preparedness in fun and exciting ways. The little ones are encouraged to come dressed in their Halloween costumes ready for some trick-or-treating!

Fun for the Whole Family:
Tour local National Weather Service (NWS) office
Meet the local NWS meteorologists
Learn how the weather radar works by viewing a working model NEXRAD
Watch a weather balloon release at 12pm
Tour various emergency vehicles from local fire departments, EMS, and law enforcement
Visit with local TV meteorologists and tour their storm chase vehicles (Birmingham & Montgomery stations)
Walk through exhibits from various local agencies & organizations
Learn about weather safety & preparedness
Grab some lunch from several local food trucks!

Special Activities for the Kids:
Trick-or-treating
Face painting
Pictures with Owlie Skywarn the NWS mascot
Kids’ booth with coloring sheets & cool weather experiments
Win chance to launch a weather balloon with Owlie! (Launch is scheduled for 12PM)

Event Information
What: 25th Anniversary Open House
Where: National Weather Service
465 Weathervane Rd Calera, AL
(Located at the Shelby County Airport)
When: Saturday, October 27th
Public Tours 10 AM – 3 PM
Admission is FREE!!

*No Smoking
**In the event of severe weather, the open house may need to be cancelled.
***No pets allowed. Service dogs permitted.
****No drugs, weapons, or alcohol of any kind allowed.

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Birmingham NWS Fall 2018 Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS office will present several online Basic Spotter Courses and a single Advanced Spotter Course this fall. These online classes allow individuals to complete the course(s) in the comfort of their own home or office with the use of https://www.join.me/ meeting site.

By attending any course, which runs about 2 hours, individuals or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Spotters.

Unless you are in need of or just want to attend a refresher Course, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however it is required you to attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course.

These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, and unmuted when applicable (e.g., for questions); or, you can use the built-in chat feature.

The current schedule is as follows:

Basic Class Tuesday, October 2 at 1:00 PM Online Use Session Code 935-938-747
Basic Class Wednesday, October 10 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 492-321-695
Basic Class Thursday, October 18 at 1:00 PM Online Use Session Code 131-611-700
Basic Class Thursday, October 25 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 725-905-971
Basic Class Tuesday, November 6 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 471-316-027
Advanced Class Tuesday, November 14 at 6:30 PM Online Use Session Code 398-176-443

Enter the session code at https://www.join.me/

There will be two live Basic Classes this fall:

Basic Class Thursday, October 18 at 6:00 PM The Venue (old Kmart building)
201 George Wallace Drive
Gadsden, AL
Basic Class Thursday, November 8 at 6:00 PM Alabama Fire College
2501 Phoenix Drive
Tuscaloosa, AL

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS, either directly via the ……. number or via chat or amateur radio. This knowledge helps Skywarn Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but, poorly described report, which without this knowledge would be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule

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News Alert! – Fall Simulated Emergency Test
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Our Fall Simulated Emergency Test for 2018 will be held October 27, 2018, from 8am to noon. Some counties may elect to perform your SET on a different weekend and that’s ok too. Here are the details for our announced SET for 2018.

Calling all amateur operators across Alabama. This year’s fall Simulated Emergency Test (SET) will begin on Saturday, October 27th. Most county exercise nets start Saturday at 8:00 AM and wrap up by noon but the exercise will remain active until Sunday evening after the statewide Alabama simplex net (146.580) at 8 PM.

This year’s simulated emergency will be a familiar one – severe winter weather. The simulation will provide details of a statewide cold snap that follows a warm front producing our typical ice storm followed by a snow event that is predicted to last a few days. The storm will cause partial closings of most state interstates and loss of power across much of the state due to downed power lines. With limited access and loss of power, there will be increased pressure on the limited resources of first responders and the health care system from critical care hospitals to nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Shelters will be established across the state and amateur operators will simulate deployment to those facilities in their county as identified as a Served Agency by their County ARES leadership. All properly licensed operators are strongly encouraged to participate and to continue the states excellent record of participation. As you know in 2018 we again lead the country in participation scoring. While we are more interested in testing our capabilities and strengthening our relationships with our local agencies, it’s nice to be recognized as the leader in emergency communications.

We will have news and injects from the National Weather Services, state EMA and local served agencies throughout the exercise. Please check your equipment, be prepared and participate on October 27th.

Thanks everyone for your hard work for Alabama Amateur Radio.
——————————————————————–
ARRL Alabama Section
Section Manager: JVann Martin Sr, W4JVM
w4jvm@arrl.org

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The Night “They” Came

In the 1930’s the world of communications was much different than it is today. Television was still largely experimental. News and sports were obtained by newspapers, “newsreels” such as Fox Movietone News, which were short video news features presented in theatres preceding the matinee and via AM radio.

Dramatic “Live Breaking News” broadcasts as we know them today were in their infancy, having been born accidentally during the live broadcast of the arrival of the Zeppelin Hindenburg, which suddenly exploded in mid-air as reporter Herbert Morrison was describing its approach on May 6, 1937.

Hindenburg disaster: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJpBOQSHwPU

AM radio of that time was comparable to Television of today. Featuring sports, music, news and a large variety of entertainment programs such as “soap operas”, so called because they were advertised by soap companies, westerns, which were jokingly called “horse operas”, mysteries and horror stories.

Those old shows, which are now called by collectors “OTR” or “Old Time Radio” still has an advantage over the visually based presentations we see today. These shows tapped into the deep recesses and realms of the mind. There is nothing as deep or dark as the hidden chambers, catacombs and caverns of human imagination. If one, as the old gospel song says were to “turn the lights down low and listen to the Master’s radio”, one can become absorbed into the stories in a way you cannot do today using visual media such as TV. For in your “mind’s eye” it can become “as real as real gets.”

You could taste the dust, as you walked the streets of Dodge City with Matt Dillon, laugh at the ridiculous antics you were “seeing” of the Marx Brothers, or feel genuine fear as you walked the misty waterfront and heard that maniacal “Song of the Slasher” as he walked away singing into the distance, with a dripping knife in one hand and another crumpled corpse laying in a dark alleyway, as you listened to “Inner Sanctum”.

It could make your skin crawl and might cause you to turn around as you could swear you saw a shadow on the wall or heard some mysterious and ominous bump somewhere, over there, in the shadows.

On one particular Sunday evening, a little after 7, if one had happened to tune to WAPI which carried CBS programming, one would have heard the last bit of weather report and then a music program start with Ramón Raquello and His Orchestra live from the Park Plaza in New York City.

Dance music cheerfully played away when suddenly the program was interrupted by a news flash about strange gas explosions having been observed on the planet Mars moving towards the Earth “at enormous velocities”, followed by a live interview by reporter Carl Phillips with Professor Richard Pierson of Princeton Observatory, who dismissed speculation about life on Mars, even though science books of that day did hint at possibilities if not probabilities that some form of life could or did exist on that distant reddish orb.

The musical program returns, but is soon interrupted again by news of a strange meteorite landing in Grover’s Mill, New Jersey. Phillips and Pierson are sent to the site and arriving find a large crowd of onlookers having gathered. The chaos and confusion is vividly described by Phillips who then spies the strange cylindrical object, which seems to be made of some sort of unknown metal. Then a portion of the cylinder suddenly starts to unscrew and open and a horrific, monstrous tentacled creature emerges, with “saliva dripping from its lipless mouth.”

As the police approach the creature waving a truce flag, some sort device appears which begins emitting a ray of light, which then becomes a jet of flame aimed at the advancing men. Suddenly the reporter shouts “Good Lord, they’re turning into flame!” and you hear the screams of agony, as the report suddenly goes dead.

An announcer explains that the remote broadcast was interrupted due to “some difficulty with our field transmission.”

As the broadcast continues there are live reports and dispatches of the futile military attempts to stop these invaders, who are being reinforced by other cylinders as they continue to fall.

Eventually, a news reporter, broadcasting from atop the “Broadcast Building” in New York City, describes the Martian invasion of the city – “five great machines” wading the Hudson “like men wading through a brook”, with poisonous black smoke drifting over the city, and people diving into the East River “like rats”, and others in Times Square “falling like flies”. He reads a final bulletin stating that Martian cylinders have fallen all over the country, then describes the smoke approaching down the street until in a coughing fit he falls silent, leaving only the sounds of the city under attack in the background.

The last words heard are a ham operator calling “2X2L calling CQ, New York. Isn’t there anyone on the air? Isn’t there anyone on the air? Isn’t there… anyone?”

Then there followed the announcement “You are listening to a CBS presentation of Orson Welles and the Mercury Theatre of the Air, in an original dramatization of The War of the Worlds by H. G. Wells. The performance will continue after a brief intermission.”

My, Mom, who was in her early 20’s saw my grandparents listening intently to the radio and asked “what is happening?” “Just a radio drama” they said. For they had heard the introduction which clearly stated “The Columbia Broadcast System and its affiliated stations present Orson Welles and the Mercury Theatre on the Air in the ‘The War Of The Worlds’ by H.G. Wells.”

Many however, tuned in just late enough to not hear the introduction and therefore thought this broadcast and the news bulletins were real.

Some modern historians and revisionists who like to “correct history” say “Historical research suggests the panic was far less widespread than newspapers had indicated at the time.”

Which is easy to say once the generation that witnessed the event is largely gone or unable to ask the simple question “where you there?” or perhaps in some cases more indelicately “what have you been smoking?”

I remember on more than one occasion my Mom watching TV presentations about historical events she had witnessed and lived through shaking her head and saying “I don’t know where they got that mess”, and then telling how it actually was during that time.

Indeed, I have seen historical events occur and then read accounts of these events ten or twenty years down the road that no more reflect what actually happened than the Man the Moon. For these reason I tend to doubt the doubters, and question the correctness of “corrected versions.”

That said, the New York Daily News reported “thousands of listeners rushed from their homes in New York and New Jersey, many with towels across their faces to protect themselves from the ‘gas’ which the invader was supposed to be spewing forth.

Simultaneously, thousands more in states that stretched west to California and south to the Gulf of Mexico rushed to their telephones to inquire of newspapers, the police, switchboard operators, and electric companies what they should do to protect themselves.

Eleven hundred calls flooded the switchboard at The News – more than when the dirigible Hindenburg exploded.

Churches in both New York and New Jersey were filled suddenly with persons seeking protection, and who found them, providentially, as they thought, open.

At St. Michaels Hospital, in Newark, fifteen persons were treated for shock.

In New York, police and fire departments and the newspapers were swamped with telephone calls from people, apparently frightened half out of their wits.

The telephone company also was deluged. The thing finally assumed such serious proportions that the Columbia Broadcasting System put bulletins on the air explaining that the ‘meteor’ broadcast was part of a play and that nothing untoward had happened.”

At the CBS studios it was said that “a few policemen trickled in, then a few more. Soon, the room was full of policemen and a massive struggle was going on between the police, page boys, and CBS executives, who were trying to prevent the cops from busting in and stopping the show.”

When news of the real-life panic leaked into the CBS studio, Welles went on the air as himself to remind listeners that it was just fiction.

In the days following, the uproar quickly died down.

The Federal Communications Commission investigated the program but found no law was broken. Networks did agree to be more cautious in their programming in the future. Welles feared that the controversy generated by “War of the Worlds” would ruin his career, but, instead it helped him land a contract with a Hollywood studio, and in 1941 he directed, wrote, produced, and starred in Citizen Kane—a movie that many have called the greatest American film ever made.

War Of The Worlds broadcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs0K4ApWl4g
War Of The Worlds transcript: http://www.sacred-texts.com/ufo/mars/wow.htm

On November 12, 1944, the “War of the Worlds” broadcast was recreated in Chile. Broadcast from Santiago, the Chilean program created a public reaction similar to the American panic six years earlier. One governor in Chile was even reported to have mobilized troops to act against the alien invasion. It caused one death due to heart attack.

On February 12, 1949 in Ecuador, Radio Quito presented their version of the broadcast, which reportedly set off panic in the city. Police and fire brigades rushed out of town to engage the supposed alien invasion force. After it was revealed that the broadcast was fiction, the panic transformed into a riot. Hundreds attacked and burned the building and occupants where Radio Quito and El Comercio, a local newspaper that had participated in the hoax by publishing false reports of unidentified objects in the skies above Ecuador in the days preceding the broadcast were housed. The riot resulted in at least seven deaths.

Could a similar situation occur today? Absolutely!

The closest modern equivalent to a War of the Worlds type broadcast I have found is a YouTube presentation “Breaking News – US networks report ‘serious incident’ between Russia and NATO forces.”

In this video, BBC America is shown presenting a mundane program about people looking for antiques, when about 3 minutes into the program it is interrupted by “breaking news” and is switched to a feed from BBC News Headquarters and absolutely realistic looking reports begin flooding in of Russian and NATO naval forces exchanging direct fire after a Russian aircraft was shot down, “high ordinance explosions” being reported, and with things rapidly escalating as war spreads across Europe “a large explosion being reported at Beale AFB in California” with footage that looks absolutely real.

If one had this on their computer monitor and someone came in not knowing what was going on, they might easily think that they were seeing the beginnings of “the end” with the world rapidly unravelling at the seams.

This year marks the eightieth anniversary of the October 30, 1938 broadcast that unintentionally left Orson Welles mark in history and made him legend at a ripe old age of 23.

There was no ill intent, or as Orson Welles explained at the end of the program: “This is Orson Welles, ladies and gentlemen, out of character to assure you that The War of The Worlds has no further significance than as the holiday offering it was intended to be. The Mercury Theatre’s own radio version of dressing up in a sheet and jumping out of a bush and saying Boo! Starting now, we couldn’t soap all your windows and steal all your garden gates by tomorrow night. . . so we did the best next thing. We annihilated the world before your very ears, and utterly destroyed the C. B. S. You will be relieved, I hope, to learn that we didn’t mean it, and that both institutions are still open for business. So goodbye everybody, and remember the terrible lesson you learned tonight. That grinning, glowing, globular invader of your living room is an inhabitant of the pumpkin patch, and if your doorbell rings and nobody’s there, that was no Martian – it’s Hallowe’en.”

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Mark’s Almanac

The tenth Month, October is so named because it is the eighth month on the Roman calendar. To the Slavs of Eastern Europe it is called “yellow month,” from the fading of the leaves, while to the Anglo-Saxons it was known as Winterfylleth, because at this full moon (fylleth) winter was supposed to begin.

By whichever name you call it, October is a mild and dry month, the driest of the year, in fact. And, it is a sunny month with the amount of possible sunshine reaching the ground in the 60% or greater range.

Weather shifts from autumn pattern to revisiting the summer pattern and back again. The Azores-Bermuda High shifts eastward into the Atlantic, but, leaves weakened high pressure centers over the Virginias, which still try to block out approaching fronts.

October is usually a quite month for tornadoes, with a 40% decrease in activity. Nationwide an average of 28 tornadoes occur in October and those tornadoes are usually weak.

Our Hurricane threat continues, with hurricane activity increasing during the first half of the month, concentrating in the Caribbean, both from formation in the Caribbean and from the long track Cape Verde hurricanes, which enter the Caribbean. And, we still have the little “gifts” that the Gulf of Mexico occasionally will provide.

Florida, due to its low latitude, becomes especially vulnerable to hurricanes. As Colorado State University researchers note, since 1851, Florida has endured 30 October hurricane landfalls, nearly triple the next highest state — Louisiana, which has had eight. Also, about 60 percent of all U.S. hurricanes that made landfall after September 26 have done so in Florida. One factor being the cold fronts of Fall penetrating the Gulf and then deflecting storms towards the West coast of Florida.

Luckily after the second half of the month the activity will begin a steady decrease.

28% of the year’s hurricanes occur in October.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 339 Tropical Storms and 206 hurricanes, 56 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable October hurricanes are:

The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as Huracán San Calixto, the Great Hurricane of the Antilles, and the 1780 Disaster, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane, which killed between 20,000 to 22, 000 people in the Lesser Antilles as it passed through from October 10 – 16, 1780. It is possible that it had winds in excess of 200 MPH when it reached Barbados.

Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolinas in 1954. Weather satellite did not yet exist and the Hurricane Hunters were unable to observe the core of the storm until it neared land on October 15. Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with a Category 4 intensity of 130 mph.

Hurricane Wilma still holds the record as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. In 24 hours Wilma went from a Category 1 storm on October 18 to a Category 5 storm with 185 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds. She weakened to Category 4 and struck the Yucatan, then restrengthened and struck Cape Romano Florida as a Category 3 storm on October 24, 2005.

Hurricane Mitch became a Category 1 hurricane on October 24, 1998 and within 48 hours grew to Category 5 intensity, and though he weakened to Category 1 before making landfall, he became the second deadliest hurricane on record killing over 11,000, with nearly that number missing in Central America due to intense rainfall and mudslides. He would eventually reach the United States making landfall near Naples Florida on November 5.

Beware of October hurricanes, for as Wilma and Mitch have demonstrated, they can experience explosive growth.

October Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

This is the month for Alabama’s version of “Indian Summer’s” arrival.

Technically speaking Indian Summer doesn’t occur until “Squaw Winter” or the first frost arrives, but exact date when Indian Summer arrives varies with latitude.

We live in Alabama, and while the earliest frosts have been known to occur by October 17, they usually wait until November. So, we, in our milder climate call the first warm up after the first cool down “Indian Summer”.

The Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies are very noticeable as they continue to drift South-Southeast on their migration towards Florida. They prefer red things & if you have red flowers they will zero in on them.

The Monarchs also will be seen gliding by in their migration towards Central America.

Fall colors will become prominent & by late October & early November the leaves will be reaching their peak fall colors.

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 53.1 degrees at the beginning of the month to 42.2 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 11 hours 50 minutes on October 1 to 10 hours 51 minutes on October 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

October 1 Sunrise 6:42 AM Sunset 6:32 PM
October 15 Sunrise 6:52 AM Sunset 6:14 PM
October 31 Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 5:56 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury is hidden by the Sun.

Venus shines at magnitude –4.7 very low in the west-southwest in evening twilight and sets before twilight is over. Don’t confuse it with Jupiter, which will probably catch your attention first. Venus is to Jupiter’s lower right, and brighter.
In a telescope Venus is a striking crescent, about 30% sunlit. For better telescopic seeing, catch it higher in a blue sky long before sunset. Though difficult to spot, Venus at times is bright enough to be seen in the daytime.
Venus will reach “Inferior Conjunction” on October 26.
An inferior conjunction occurs when the two planets lie in a line on the same side of the Sun. In an inferior conjunction, the superior planet, which in this case is Earth, is in “opposition”, or directly opposite of the Sun if it were seen from the inferior planet, in this case Venus.
If one could push aside the perpetual clouds of Venus, one would see a brilliant blue “star” in the Venusian midnight sky, which would be Earth.
Mars, in southern Capricornus, fades from magnitude –1.7 to –1.5. It shines highest in the south about an hour after dark and sets around 2 a.m.
A week ago as I drove home from work, having worked the night shift, I drove directly toward the setting gibbous Moon with Mars shining right beside her, which it being 1 AM, generated an oddly eerie feeling.
The dust in the Martian atmosphere continues to settle, allowing surface markings to show with slightly better contrast.
Jupiter, magnitude –1.9, in Libra shines ever lower in the southwest in twilight.
Saturn, magnitude +0.4, above the spout-tip of the Sagittarius Teapot glows yellow in the south at dusk, well to the right of brighter Mars. It’s Summer in Saturn’s Northern Hemisphere and his rings are near their maximum 27 degree tilt towards Earth. He sets by midnight.
Uranus shining at magnitude 5, near the Aries-Pisces border reaches Opposition October 23. It will be brighter than any other time of the year. This is the best time to view Uranus. However, due to its distance, it will only appear as a tiny blue-green dot in all but the most powerful telescopes. He will be well up in the East by late evening.

Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is well up in the southeast by late evening.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on October 5, when she will be 227,668 miles from Earth.

The Draconid Meteor Shower will peak on October 8. This minor shower is produced by dust grains left behind by Comet 21P Giacobini-Zinner, which was discovered in 1900. This shower, which runs from October 6 – 10, is unusual in that it is best observed in the early evening, instead of the early morning hours as with most other showers.

This will be an excellent year to observe the Draconids because there will be no moonlight to spoil the show. Best viewing will be in the early evening from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Draco, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

New Moon will occur October 8. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 9:47 CDT or 3:47 UTC which in Greenwich England is the 9th. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on October 17, when she will be 251175 miles from Earth.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaks on October 21 & 22. The Orionids is an average shower producing up to 20 meteors per hour at its peak This shower, which runs from October 2 to November 7, is produced by the broad debris trail of Halley’s Comet. The crescent moon will set early in the evening leaving dark skies for what should be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Orion, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

This is the time of year when the rich star clouds of the Milky Way in Cygnus crosses the zenith, looking like a ghostly band overhead in the hour after nightfall is complete. The Milky Way now rises straight up from the southwest horizon, passed overhead, and runs straight down to the northeast. Later at midnight, Orion the Hunter and the stars of winter rise over the eastern horizon, reminding us to enjoy the mild weather while it is here, for this season, as all seasons, is but a fleeting moment in the never ending waltz of time.

October’s Full Moon will occur October 24. The Moon will be directly opposite the Earth from the Sun and will be fully illuminated as seen from Earth. This phase occurs at 16:46 UTC or 11:46 AM CDT. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes as the Full Hunters Moon because at this time of year the leaves are falling and the game is fat and ready to hunt. This moon has also been known as the Travel Moon and the Blood Moon.

3791 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of September 27, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on October 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi everyone,

Though the temperature and certainly the humidity aren’t betraying the secret, Fall is soon approaching.

Already the grass is growing slower and the leaves are starting to look weathered and worn. Soon the Fall season and the events that come with it will arrive and we will enjoy the not too hot, not too cold days of the Goldilocks of seasons.

Football, camping, cookouts and a slight crispness in the air – do I sound like I am ready for it?

Whatever you are looking forward to, I hope you have a fun safe late Summer / Early Fall Season.

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Tempests, Trials & Tribulations

Early last month the Central Pacific was the temporary home to Hurricane Hector, a Category 4 storm that passed South of Hawaii. The name may have sounded familiar, for Hector, as it turns out, was quite a world traveler, having already visited the British Isles in early June.

Now how did Hector manage to do this feat? Hector cloned himself of course.

Or perhaps there is another explanation.

Beginning in 2017, the UK Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service and its Irish counterpart Met Eireann decided to follow the US system of giving male and female names to tropical storms and hurricanes and began naming North Atlantic Storms or “Tempests” to make people more aware of the severe weather and help them prepare in advance.

Surveys showed people were more aware of the threat and more likely to take action after hearing the name of a storm, rather than a forecast simply saying that bad weather was on the way. For example, 89 per cent of people said they were aware of the approaching Storm Doris – which wreaked havoc in February 2017 – and 94 per cent said warnings were useful.

These storms will be given a name if it has the potential to cause an “Amber – Be Prepared” or “Red – Take Action” warning for the people of Britain and Ireland.

In the winter season of 2016/17, the names included Angus, Barbara, Conor and Doris.

The Met Office and Met Eireann’s joint list of names for 2017/2018 includes a total of 21 names which were chosen after being whittled down from more than 10,000 suggestions submitted by the public. One name was picked for each letter of the alphabet, apart from Q, U, X, Y and Z, those letters being omitted to ensure consistency for official storm naming in the North Atlantic, to reduce confusion for fellow weather experts, sea captains and pilots.

Those 21 names are: Aileen, Brian, Caroline, Dylan, Eleanor, Fionn (pronounced F-yunn), Georgina, Hector, Iona, James, Karen, Larry, Maeve, Niall (pronounced Nye-al), Octavia, Paul, Rebecca, Simon, Tali, Victor & Winifred.

If a storm has already been named by another meteorological agency, it will retain that name. For instance, it is not uncommon for a Tropical system named by the National Hurricane Center to recurve Northeast and remain intact as a storm and reach the British Isles.

The naming of storms of course isn’t a new idea, the Great Flood of Noah, being perhaps the oldest example of a named storm.

One curious thing to ponder upon, whether you believe the Biblical story or not, is that it is interesting that so many cultures and religions from the ancient Sumerians, Hindus, Greeks, Chinese, Norse, Mayan, Native American and even the Aboriginal peoples of Australia have legends of some sort a great flood, usually caused by divine interaction and many featuring a ship being built as a refuge for the remnants of mankind.

Are the legends merely coincidences or are they based on faded memories of a common event, memories almost lost in the mists of antiquity from the prehistoric days before mankind overspread the world in, as the Aborigines call them “the Dream Times” of early man?

Moving to more recent times, no record exists of the names of the Category 4 or 5 Hurricanes that geological evidence indicate struck Mobile Bay in 830 & 1140 AD, but, I imagine the Native America’s who endured these storms called them a name or two.

The earliest report of a Hurricane came from Christopher Columbus, who encountered a Hurricane during his second voyage to Hispaniola in September 1494.

Early West Indies Tropical Storms were named after the particular Saint’s day on which the storm occurred. For instance, “Hurricane San Roque of 1508”, which was the first recorded Tropical Cyclone in Puerto Rico.

As the centuries progressed this tradition would continue, with storms being named because of their intensity, such as the “Great Hurricane of 1722” which destroyed New Orleans, the location affected, as with the “Great Galveston Hurricane Of 1900” or for the holiday it fell on, such as the “Labor Day Hurricane of 1935”, the most intense hurricane ever to make landfall in the United States, which struck the Florida Keys.

In the 1880’s and 1890’s Australian Meteorologist Clement Wragge began assigning names to Australia’s Tropical Cyclones. His original idea was to name them after the letters of the Greek alphabet, but, he later used names from Polynesian mythology and politicians, not necessarily for complementary reasons.

In addition to politicians who annoyed him, he used colorful names such as Xerxes, Hannibal, Blasatus and Teman.

Wragge’s Queensland weather office closed in 1903, but, his memory lived on. Especially with author George R. Stewart, who wrote a 1941 novel called “Storm”, in which a junior meteorologist named Pacific extratropical storms after former girlfriends. This novel was widely read, especially by US Army Air Corps and Navy meteorologists during World War II.

One version of how the modern naming of storms began is that during World War II US military meteorologists plotting storms over the Pacific ran into a problem. Where they had had no big problems plotting fronts, highs, lows and an occasional Typhoon, they found themselves having to plot two Typhoons at once. How were they to distinguish one Typhoon from the other in dispatches? They decided to stick them with names, as in Stewart’s novel, and began naming them after girlfriends and wives.

In 1945, the Armed Services publicly adopted a list of women’s names for Typhoons of the Western Pacific using the names of wives of officers assigned to forward forecast centers on Guam and the Philippines.

However, they were unable to persuade the U.S. Weather Bureau to adopt a similar practice for Atlantic Hurricanes.

Starting in 1947, the Air Force Hurricane Office in Miami began designating Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean using the old Army/Navy phonetic alphabet i.e., Able, Baker Charlie and so forth in internal communications.

In 1950 three Hurricanes occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which caused considerable confusion. To remedy this Grady Norton of the US Weather Bureau’s Miami Hurricane Warning Center decided to use the Air Force’s naming system in public bulletins and end of season summaries. The press soon caught on and started using these names, and the practice proved to be popular.

A new international phonetic alphabet was adopted in 1952, with the familiar Alpha, Beta, Charlie style which is commonly used today. To avoid confusion the US Weather Bureau switched to the Armed Forces system of using women’s names, which was both controversial and popular.

Using the US example other meteorological entities then began similar practices for naming storms in the Tropical Cyclone Basins under their jurisdiction.

In 1978, the current system that alternates between men’s and women’s names was adopted, following the practice used by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, which brings us to 2018.

Tropical Cyclone names for all basins may be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml and https://public.wmo.int/en/About-us/FAQs/faqs-tropical-cyclones/tropical-cyclone-naming

Then we come to the touchy subject of naming winter storms. Winter storms have been unofficially named since the mid 1700’s as a way to describe historic storms, beginning with “The Great Snow of 1717”, which dumped five feet of snow on the colonies of Virginia and New England in 1717.

In the 2010’s The Weather Channel and other media outlets began tagging their own names on winter storms

In November 2012, The Weather Channel began systematically naming winter storms, starting with the November 2012 nor’easter it named “Winter Storm Athena.” The Weather Channel compiled a list of winter storm names for the 2012–13 winter season, including Athena, Brutus, Caesar, Gandolf, Khan, and Nemo.

The Weather Channel Senior Director Bryan Norcross said “It would only name those storms that are ‘disruptive’ to people”. The reasoning being that the names help people with preparation.

Their decision was met with criticism from other weather forecasters, including NOAA, who does no acknowledge these names and in a November 2012 memo requested that its employees avoid referring to storms by name.

NWS spokesperson Susan Buchanan stated, “The National Weather Service does not name winter storms because a winter storm’s impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins.”

AccuWeather, a commercial weather forecasting service, also disagrees with the practice of naming winter storms. AccuWeather President Joel N. Myers stated in February 2013, “The Weather Channel has confused media spin with science and public safety. We […] have found this is not good science and will mislead the public.”

In defense of The Weather Channel’s practice, The Weather Channel’s Norcross said, “The fact is, a storm with a name is easier to follow, which will mean fewer surprises and more preparation.”

AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines counters, “The Weather Channel probably names the storms because it gets the publicity”. In other words, they hype them for marketing reasons and ratings.

Whether it’s a good idea or just plain monkey business, I don’t know, and I won’t speculate either. For as a sweet lady once taught me “a wise monkey never monkey’s with another monkey’s monkey”, so this monkey isn’t going to go monkeying around with it.

Or as the old saying goes “Though I am tempted to do so, Wisdom whispers otherwise and sometimes I actually will heed Her silken voice.”

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month of the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and then back again. Storm activity resembles the August pattern, but the Bermuda High starts shifting southward and begins weakening, which weakens the blocking effect that has hampered fronts attempting to invade from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10. This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the effects of the solar and lunar gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year. Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 584 Tropical Storms and 404 hurricanes, 111 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable September hurricanes are:

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which was a Category 4 Storm whose storm surge overwhelmed Galveston Island, killing 8000 people, and is still the deadliest weather disaster in US history.

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1936, the most intense storm to strike the US, was a Category 5 storm which moved through the Florida Keys and along West Florida, overturning trains and literally sandblasting people to death.

Camille, a category 5 storm, and the second most intense storm to hit the US, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana in 1969.

Andrew was a category 5 storm which devastated South Florida in 1992. The ruins of buildings destroyed are still visible today.

Opal, which weakened to a category 3 storm just before striking near Pensacola and then moving into and maintaining hurricane strength deep into Alabama as it crossed the length of the state in in 1995.

Ivan, the category 3 storm which struck Alabama & Florida in 2004, caused tremendous damage to Gulf Shores and extensive damage to the state’s electrical grid. At the height of the outages, Alabama Power reported 489,000 subscribers had lost electrical power—roughly half of its subscriber base.

Katrina, which weakened from a category 5 storm to a category 3 storm at landfall near Buras Louisiana in 2005. This storm caused catastrophic damage to Louisiana and Mississippi, parts of which are still being rebuilt to this day.

Rita, a category 3 storm which struck the Texas – Louisiana border in 2005, and, despite the distance, dropped 22 tornadoes over Western Alabama.

Wilma, the strongest Atlantic Basin hurricane with 185 MPH winds, weakened slightly before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and then strengthening to a category 3 storm before striking near Cape Romano Florida in 2005. Wilma would be the last major hurricane to strike the US until Harvey 12 years later.

September Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Days continue to grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 64.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 53.5 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 12 hours 51 minutes on August 1 to 11 hours 52 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

September 1 Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 7:12 PM
September 15 Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 6:53 PM
September 31 Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 6:33 PM

Looking skyward, we find a unique occurrence in progress. Through the first week of September all eight planets, all five named dwarf planets and all 182 moons in the solar system are located on one side of the solar system.

This is called “maximus lopsiditus”, or at least it should be. Other than possibly tugging the Sun’s trek through the Milky Way slightly to one side, it has no major significance other than being a cool factoid.

Looking at the planets, Mercury, magnitude 0, the swiftest planet, is visible in the predawn below Gemini The Twins, rises 45 minutes before sunrise and will brighten to magnitude -1 as he reaches Perihelion, or his closest approach to the Sun on September 2.

He will then begin sinking towards the Sunset and pass behind the Sun reaching “Superior Conjunction” on September 20, when Mercury and the Earth will be on opposite sides of the sun.

Venus, magnitude –4.5, shines low in the west in twilight. In a telescope Venus is just on the crescent side of dichotomy or being half-lit. For the best telescopic view catch Venus as early as you can, preferably long before sunset while she is still high.

Mars, magnitude -2.3 at the border of Sagittarius and Capricorn is gradually fading and growing smaller as he moves away from the Earth. He rises higher in the southeast earlier in the evening and is at its highest in the south around 11 PM CDT and is still blazing red. Mars will reach Perihelion or his closest approach to the Sun on September 16.

Though Mars is not and never will be the same size of the Full Moon, as the recurring internet rumor states, I would take advantage of viewing Mars while he is still as large as he is, for he won’t appear this big again until 2035.

Jupiter, his 67 moons and thin rings shines at magnitude –2.0 in Libra in the Southwest in twilight.

Saturn, his 62 moons and massive rings glows yellow at magnitude +0.3 in the South at above the Sagittarius Teapot at nightfall.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, is at the Aries-Pisces border; well up in the East by Midnight.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is well up in the Southeast by Midnight. Neptune will be at Opposition, or his closes approach to Earth or 2,689,200,000 miles on September 7.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on September 7, when she will be 224,536 miles from Earth.

New Moon occurs September 9 at 1:01 PM CDT or 18:01 UTC when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 23, when she will be 251578 miles from Earth.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 22 at 8:54 PM CDT or 1:54 UTC, when the Sun crosses directly over the equator and night and day is approximately the same length throughout the world. For the Southern Hemisphere it is Vernal Equinox, the first day of Spring.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”. Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Where this belief originated is obscure. Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September. At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon will occur September 25 at 9:53 PM CDT or 2:53 UTC. This month’s moon is “Full Corn Moon” in Native American folklore because corn is harvested this time of year.

This year it is also “Harvest Moon”. Harvest moon get its name because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

Most believe that Harvest Moon is always in September; however this isn’t always the case. Harvest Moon is actually the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox, and so occasionally it can occur with October “Hunters Moon”.

High in the Southern night sky an asterism or a group of stars appearing clustered together, but not actually gravitationally bound will be seen that resembles a teapot. This is the Teapot of Sagittarius.

To the naked eye, the Teapot is roughly the size of your fist at arm’s length. Above the spout of the Teapot lies a band of light, the Large Sagittarius Star Cloud. A pair of binoculars will reveal a sea of stars and faint grayish patches, the largest of which is the Lagoon Nebula. When you look upon these nebulae you are seeing stars in the process of being born.

The spout, which is tilting and pouring to the right, also points towards the galactic center of the Milky Way, located just beyond the Large Sagittarius Star cloud, but largely hidden by the dust clouds, which lie along the plane of the Sagittarius arm of the galaxy.

3778 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of August 23, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on September 11 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Reading Tea Leaves With Mark
Or
Point Weather Forecasting For The Rank Amateur

“What’s it going to do this weekend?”

This is a question I’ve been asked countless times through the years after it was “discovered” that “that little kid Mark, ask him, he seems to know what the weather’s going to do.”

This “Mystic Ability” came about quite by accident. Long before my interest in ham radio or meteorology there was and still is a deep interest in astronomy. Starting at age 5, or around 1963, I would look through my sister Joyce’s old thick high school science book, which was published in the late 1940’s and see the pictures of star clouds and planets, later I would read it’s tales of “island universes”, the true nature of swirling galaxies having just been realized when the book was printed and of the probability of life on Mars. It fired my young imagination.

Around 1970 I saved what was to me a fortune and bought a reflector telescope for $30 and began exploring the night sky.

At school on Wednesday I would figure out what I would be looking at Saturday. Wednesday would be clear. By Thursday there were giant feathers in the sky. On Friday a halo would be circling the Sun and on Saturday buckets of rain would be falling.

It only took a few episodes of this for me to figure out the pattern.

So it was that Thursday would come, I would look up at the sky, cancel my plans to count craters on the moon, and would remark to a friend planning to “go fishin” Saturday “you might better take an umbrella.” To which he would reply “yeah sure, you don’t know nuthin.”

Monday would come and he would come, still disappointed from his fishing trek being rained out and ask “How did you know?”

“It’s an ancient secret, passed down to only a few” I would say, and maybe mumble something about Forbidden Knowledge Of The Egyptians, and watch his blank expression.

That started it. I get asked “what’s it going to do” daily, from near and far. Just five minutes ago someone asked “what will it do today?” and that’s just twice so far for today.

I don’t mind it at all. It’s fun.

“Why don’t you do this on TV?” some have asked.

Besides having a face that would frighten little children if they saw me on TV, let’s just say that the twists and turns of life and a general reeking of my mathematical ability, both higher and lower, have combined to make that possibility somewhat dubious.

If by chance I were to get struck by lightning and those forces that hold my long dormant mathematical brain cells hostage where to release them and they suddenly snapped into conduction where one plus one no longer equals three, I might consider doing what my father did when he went back to college at near age 60, and ended up teaching at the University Of Alabama.

Roll Tide, by the way.

Then the question of the actual marketability of what would eventually be a 65 year old rookie meteorologist might factor in, as well as the “ABBA Theory”.

An obscure early ABBA song tells of a lady working a mundane job “just a face among a million faces, just another lady with no name.” But she had a secret, as she was part of an amateur ballet company and every Friday night she was transformed into the star of the stage. Monday? Back to being buried in paperwork and being a random face lost in the crowd.

Would she prefer that every day be like Friday? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. “For she knows the fun would go away, if she played every day.”

Being an armchair meteorologist has the advantage of non-accountability. If I miss a forecast, big deal, only the cat and I know. And, he doesn’t say too much.

But our friends at the NWS are held to strict accountability, and broadcast meteorologists catch grief every time General Hospital is interrupted for a storm that effects “the other guy”, not them and woe to all of them if it “unexpectedly” rains on little Demented, I mean little Darling Daphne’s fifth birthday party and picnic.

But, just for fun, not pretending to be “anybody” or claiming any special talent, let’s reveal the Shrouded Sacred Secrets of “Mark’s Roll Your Own Weather Forecasting.”

Before I begin I will say when I look for the ACTUAL forecast I rely on our friends on Weathervane Road, the NWS. They have the experience, talent, dedication, education and resources that let me know that barring the unforeseen quirks of nature, I can rely on their opinions and judgements.

The following suggestions are based on the assumption that you have little or no equipment available. This becomes especially valuable during outdoor adventures, as it lessens your chances of being caught off guard, whether at the beach, the park or in the mountains.

Before beginning ANY adventure check the NWS forecast first. Many, many troubles and tragedies could have been avoided by that one simple little action.

If you are interested in trying “Roll Your Own Forecasting” here are a few suggestions I recommend.

1. Do a little research. Start with a simple, manageable book describing the whys and ways of weather phenomena and how the atmosphere works. It doesn’t have to be a 1000 page tome loaded with mathematical formulae looking like it was written in Chinese.

The book I learned from, which was simple, yet detailed was Weather: A Fully Illustrated, Authoritative and Easy-to-Use Guide (A Golden Guide from St. Martin’s Press) by Paul E. Lehr & R. Will Burnette.

At first it looks like a “child’s book”, but, it has plenty of useful information that is well explained, and is loaded with illustrations that could be considered works of art.

2. Learn your microclimate. Every area has its own little quirks and interactions which will combine to cause variations in actual conditions versus the expected textbook conditions. Hills will alter the wind flow, streams and bogs will alter the humidity levels for example.

Once there was an emergency exercise where K4NWS provided weather updates for a simulated chemical emergency. The Incident Commander would call for weather conditions and I would give him the latest readings from the NWS instruments. At one point he became frustrated and yelled “that’s not what we are seeing down here.” I explained that “conditions at the NWS forecast office may or may not mirror the conditions you see at your location. This is what the conditions are at the forecast office, conditions seen at other locations can and will vary due to variations in terrain.”

He didn’t like that answer of course, but, it was the truth and as they say “I don’t write em, I just read em.”

I’ve experimented by placing instruments in the center and corners of large fields, and all the readings were in some disagreement. Shadows, shading, wind deflection and foliage all combined to give a variation in readings.

What local factors could influence your forecast?

3. Pay attention, notice and learn what normally goes on around you, both weatherwise and otherwise.

We live in a “tuned out” society, with many distractions both good and bad.

Some go about almost in a zombielike state absorbed in their own little virtual world of texting and chatting. This is neither healthy nor safe, as you can become so unaware of what’s going on around you that you become the perfect prey for those who would harm you, either due to greed, hatred, prejudice or just mean low down creepy people “being themselves” by acting mean creepy and low down.

Also, you don’t want to end up like poor Granny Johnson. The booze finally got her. True, she never drank a drop, but, she was blasting the Hallelujah Tabernacle Quartet so loud in her earbuds that she never heard the air horn of the Budweiser truck that sent her to Glory – in a somewhat flattened state.

So tune back in!

I know it may not be as easy as it sounds, because it is such a strong habit, and because it’s so enjoyable. But, tuning back in is even more enjoyable.

As you reconnect with the world around you, you will begin to notice cool little things. Flowers you never saw before, yet they were always there. What the bugs and birds are doing. For instance you notice anthills growing taller as the ants shore them up, they somehow knowing that it is going to rain. You see the birds reappearing in the rain letting you know a storm is almost over. You hear the changing and varying call of the birds, and you learn to admire the ever changing tapestry of the sky and learn the secrets it holds.

The longer you reconnect you begin to sense things about the moods of nature and the creatures in it, almost a sixth sense, as you tap into the primordial instincts that were always there, but, were buried deep within by the continual drone and distractions of modern society.

You will find that world is an exceedingly interesting place.

When gathering information for your forecast, here are some questions to ask yourself,

1. What are the winds doing?

Some broad, general rules are:

North wind cold, South wind hot, East wind foul & West wind fair

But, while these indicators are right more often than they are wrong, the most important forecasting factor is the change in the wind direction, for changes in wind direction indicates a change in the pressure environment, the interaction between high pressure and low pressure systems, which actually end up defining the “weather” that we see. This is especially true when accompanied by a change in the barometric pressure.

The following rules come from various sources, where I got them are lost in the mists and the cobwebs of my memory.

“If the wind is shifting counterclockwise from the Southwest through South to the East and the barometer is falling, a storm system is West to Northwest of your location and will pass near or North of you within 12 to 24 hours. If accompanied by East or Northeast moving clouds, a cold front is approaching. After the front passes expect a wind shift to the Northwest.”

“If the wind is from the East to Northeast and the barometer is falling, a storm is South to Southwest of your location and will pass near or South of your location in 12 to 24 hours. Expect a wind shift to the Northwest via North as the storm passes.”

Once a front has passed the duration of fair weather will be depend roughly on the duration of the pressure rise. If the pressure rise lasts only for a day, the fair weather will not last much longer than a day.

Calm winds, or North winds and high pressure usually indicate good weather.

2. What is the barometer REALLY doing?

Occasionally I will hear broadcast media say “the pressure is 30.00 inches and steady” and I will think “oh, no it is NOT steady, it’s falling. That is the same reading you had at 6PM.”

A secret that one has to consider when reading a barometer is the “diurnal effect” of the barometric pressure. Normally the barometric pressure will rise and fall a little during the day without it having any significance or indicating any outside influence.

The degree of this rise or fall will vary with the latitude, but, generally it will be roughly plus or minus .05 to .06 inches in Alabama.

For example, if the pressure is 30.00 inches at noon, the pressure will normally fall to around 29.95 inches at 6PM, rebound to 30.00 inches at Midnight, fall again to 29.95 inches at 6AM, and so forth.

This is not a true rise and fall, but, a normal variation. So technically in this case for our forecasting purposes, the pressure could be considered “steady”.

An easy way to remember this is that the pressure at noon should be the same at midnight, and the pressure at 6AM should read the same at 6PM. If it is, no change is imminent. If it does move out of this range, then something could be “in the wind”.

Also, the actual level of the pressure, whether high or low does not necessarily indicate what weather could be occurring. I’ve seen it rain with a “high pressure” of 30.45 inches, and have seen it be clear as glass with a “low pressure” of 29.65 inches.

Again, it’s the CHANGE that we are interested in.

What if you don’t have a barometer?

You are in luck in that you can access an entire network of FREE weather stations called the Automated Weather and Surface Observation System.

The Automated Surface Observing System or ASOS stations are operated cooperatively by the NWS, FAA & DOD. This is a primary climatological observing network. Deployment of the system began in 1991 and was completed in 2004.

These stations use a format such as this: “Birmingham Airport Automated Weather Observation. One six five three Zulu. Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20. Visibility 7. Light rain, mist. Sky condition 700 scattered, 1700 broken, 3500 overcast. Temperature 79, Celsius, Dew Point 69 Celsius, Altimeter 29.64. Remarks distant lightning South West through west. Wind variable between 150 and 230.”

Deciphering this, “one six five three Zulu” is the time 16:53 UTC.

“Wind 180 degrees at 7 peak gust 20” is the wind direction, in this case south. Remember the cardinal compass points: North is at 0 degrees (and 360 degrees), East is 90 degrees, South is 180 degrees, and West is 270 degrees. Then the wind speed is given.

“Visibility 7” is the horizontal surface visibility.

“Light rain, mist” is self-explanatory.

“Sky condition” is the actual measured altitude of the various cloud layers in feet, in this case 700 feet scattered, 1700 feet broken, 3500 feet overcast.

Temperature & dew point are given in Celsius.

“Altimeter 29.64” is the barometric pressure in this case 29.64 inches.

“Remarks” are any other pertinent weather comments, in this case distant lightning is being observed South West through West and the wind direction is wind variable between 150 and 230 degrees.

These reports are very useful in getting an idea of the conditions both now and just upstream of your location.

The following link gives you all of the ASOS Frequencies and Telephone by city or airport for Alabama.

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/?state=AL

Now there are a few drawbacks to these stations:

The weather given is the weather where the station is located, and may not necessarily agree with the weather where you are located. As mentioned earlier, wind currents and eddies, trees, unknown or unseen elements all of which make up the microclimate of the location may throw curve balls into the readings.

Cloud layer altitudes are interesting to know. But, they are measured using a laser beam ceilometer that shoots a laser beam straight up & measures return “echo”. This method is good and accurate, but has tunnel vision. I have seen times it would say “clear” and it was really ringing a doughnut hole in an otherwise overcast sky. This device has a maximum range of 12000 feet. Low Altocumuli can be detected; higher altocumulus and cirrus will be missed.

3. What are the clouds doing?

Perhaps the biggest clues to the upcoming weather are the clouds themselves. Each tells a different story.

(At this point I would sorely love to include pictures to illustrate the following. But I am concerned about bandwidth, copy write and newsletter length issues. Just copy the cloud name in your search engine and go to “images” to learn their appearance.)

CLEAR skies indicate no major change is imminent (though nature sometimes will throw a surprise).

CUMULUS – Like shreds of cotton, clouds that are being shredded and torn against a blue sky usually mean fair weather for several hours.

CUMULUS – Chubby, looking like a mound of mashed potatoes, forming sheets or a “field of cumulus” usually indicate fair weather, with the exception of those forming at or before noon, as they indicate instability and possible showers later in the day. The flatter they are, they less likely anything will develop. Towards sunset they can flatten out into STRATOCUMULUS detailed below.

CUMULUS – Looking like cauliflowers or CUMULUS CONGESTUS can bring showers or continue developing into a thunderstorm or CUMULONIMBUS

CUMULUS – Shooting straight up or towering or “TOWERING CUMULUS” indicates thunderstorms are likely.

CUMULONIMBUS – Mountains of clouds, with anvil shaped tops capped by false cirrus – thunderstorms are already here.

STRATUS – Low dense clouds, actually a type of fog. Expect drizzle. Many times they will burn off as the Sun rises during the morning, or ruin a “fair weather” night forecast by forming as a fog bank under a clear sky and hovering near the ground totally obscuring the sky.

NIMBOSTRATUS – A low, rainy layer, dark gray, frequently observed under ALTOSTRATUS. These indicate longer periods of rain, perhaps for hours, but not as long if accompanied by West or Northwest winds. Sometimes they are accompanied by lower detached scud clouds scooting underneath or tendrils and wisps of clouds seen rising off mountain ridges.

STRATOCUMULUS – Large globular masses or rolls arranged in waves or lines. They may lower and fuse together and convert into STRATUS or NIMBOSTRATUS. These indicate “unsettled weather”, which is defined for our purposes as “variable clouds, with slight chances of precipitation, if the precipitation is substantial it will fall for a small part of the period only”.

ALTOCUMULUS – Globular masses, small and flattened usually in lines or waves. The moon or sun often shines readily through them, accompanied by a colorful corona or iridescence. They are often followed by unsettled weather or showery skies.

ALTOSTRATUS – A gloomy gray uniform sheet of clouds, with the sun occasionally peaking though as if looking through frosted glass. Expect rain within 12 to 24 hours if Northeast to Southeast winds are present.

CIRROCUMULUS – Delicate looking small globular masses, sometimes resembling lace, a net or a honeycomb, sometimes looking similar to small altocumulus, but always white with no shadowing. Cirrocumulus in thin patches in association with other high, thin clouds usually means fair weather, while cirrocumulus as part of a thickening layer of clouds is more likely to mean that storms are on the way. I consider these the most beautiful of clouds.

CIRROSTRATUS – A white veil, often merging into ALTOSTRATUS. Increasing means rain is likely, particularly if there is a halo encircling the sun or moon. Expect chances of rain within 12 to 24 hours. Sometimes these clouds are so thin that the sun or moon shines readily through the milky sky.

CIRRUS – Thin, white silky and fibrous. If a few feathery cirrus are floating by it means fair weather today. They occasionally produce sundogs, which may indicate rain within 24 to 48 hours, if the coverage increases. Their distance is deceptive, as they are so high up that they may look as if they are nearby, but, may actually be 50 to 150 miles away, the distance increasing the closer they are to the horizon.

CONTRAILS – The long thin clouds that are formed in the wake of aircraft. Long trails will only form if there is already some moisture in the air; in very dry air they dissolve almost instantly.
If they persist and grow longer, the air is becoming humid. If they persist for hours they can cover the sky and merge into a sort of manmade form of CIRROSTRATUS, indicating a worsening of the weather is to come.

4. What is your radio doing?

By taking an AM radio, tuning it to 530 and listening to the sferics or static crashes you can determine the presence of thunderstorms, the type of thunderstorm (cellular or linear) and with practice using the same receiver exclusively, as differing receivers have differing reception traits, estimate the approximate range or distance of the storm from you.

Cellular storms will have sporadic bursts, while linear storms have a more continuous pattern.

With scattered cellular storms you may hear many bursts, but the volume and sharpness will decrease with increasing distance. A burst resembling the sound of plastic wrap is distant, while a sharp, loud crash means the storm is near.

If one listens to the crashes and plots the storms on radar, they will develop “an ear” as to judging the distance.

This also works on 160 and 80 Meters during the day. It is useless at night however, as the skip zone is too long and you may be hearing storms in Texas.

One oddity I’ve noticed is that static crashes from approaching storms seem to be louder than storms moving away, but, at the same distance. Why, I’m not certain. My best guess is that the rainfall is attenuating the “signal” from the static crash.

Also, a ham who worked the McDonald’s Chapel tornado in 1956 tells me that for days after the tornado there was, as it were, a continuous static field in the atmosphere that made 2 meters almost unusable for hams working the disaster. What they encountered and why, I have never found out nor have I seen any similar reference with other tornadoes.

5. What is your gut telling you?

Sometimes you look at all the factors and still you just have a hunch or feeling that “this and such” is or isn’t going to happen.

Don’t ignore those feelings. They may be valid, based on something you heard or read, now largely forgotten, but still enough remaining in your memory to make you say “wait a minute”.

So, you have gathered all your information. What do you do now?

You write it all down, add it up and since indicators are sometimes contradictory, you usually go with the majority of the opinions. With time you will learn which factors are more accurate for your location and give heavier reliance on them.

The question then comes, how do you judge if you’ve missed the forecast or hit it?

Sometimes it’s easy. You predicted fair weather and it’s sunny. Atta boy!

But, what if your forecast is “increasing clouds, rain in 12 hours”; it becomes black as night with clouds, but, not a drop of rain falls? You got it and but you then again you didn’t get it. 50 – 50.

That’s why I learned to “blur” the forecast a little by saying “increasing clouds, rain POSSIBLE in 12 hours.” If the sky “beclouds” and it is gloomy for the majority of the forecast period, I’ve hit the mark whether it rains or not, as the forecast is mushy enough to not lock me into an “it must rain” scenario.

The question also arises of how long do the conditions have to exist to validate your forecast?

For instance your forecast was “increasing clouds”, which it did from 12 to 4, then suddenly the clouds broke and it was sunny for an hour and then it clouded over again from 5 till six.

The rule I used was “if the forecast proved valid for the majority of the forecast period, two thirds being the cutoff point, it counts.” Unless of course the “missed part” is so important that you can’t discount it. “It was fair weather except for the tornado and flash flood”, for instance.

What is the “forecast period” for my prodigious prognostications? That depends on how many forecasts I make in a day. If I make a forecast every six hours, which increases the accuracy, then my forecast period is 6 hours. If I made a forecast at Midnight & Noon, it is 12 hours, and so on.

There are no “official” rules, you have to make them up as you go and stick to them.

One thing I won’t do, that the pro’s do, is what I heard at an aviation weather seminar, when they spoke of “adjusting the forecast as it starts to ‘slip out of category’”. In other words, they find the forecast is proving wrong, so they quickly change it.

That’s ok for them, and they have to for safety reasons, but, it would be cheating for me.

Also, if you find that in spite of all the indications the forecast is consistently turning out wrong, until the indications start changing, just go with the flow. For instance, everything says “fair” but its rained 8 days straight, and nothing seems to be changing, I’m forecasting rain, regardless of the readings.

I’m not a dummy, you know.

Weather equipment I would recommend obtaining is a wind vane, barometer and thermometer. Or go all out and get a professional grade setup, such as those made by Davis or Lacrosse.

One other item I would get is a booklet that is no longer in print, but, available on Amazon and Ebay called The Sager Weathercaster. This booklet created during World War II by Raymond Sager is basically a weather computer, which you input information about the wind direction, barometer tendency and sky condition on a set of circular disks or dials. The dials then give you a 4 character alphanumeric code that you then look up, which in turn will give you a forecast of conditions and wind directions, which many more times than not will prove accurate.

An online version is available at http://www.weather-above.com/Sager%20Algorithm.html

A similar device is the Zambretti Forecaster developed in Britain by Negretti & Zambra during World War I. It also has a dial arrangement, and is interesting to try, if not as accurate as the Sager Weathercaster. This inaccuracy is due perhaps because of the latitude difference, or because sky conditions don’t factor in, or perhaps simply because the British forecast terminology is vague to me and doesn’t seem to match the US terminology that I’m used to and I can’t seem to reconcile the styles.

For instance I see a forecast of “fine weather”. What defines “fine”? Is it clear, partly cloudy, cloudy with sunshine peeking through or does it mean simply “it ain’t gonna rain?”

An online version is available at http://www.casacota.cat/2×2/predictor.pl

Over the years I’ve discovered that my forecasts are more accurate during the Spring and Fall. During the winter the storm systems move faster, causing the sequence of events to occur faster than “the books” say. In the summer storm systems will approach, giving the usual sequence of events, but then the systems are stalled or redirected by the Bermuda high and they never arrive.

This aggravates me to no end.

Also, it would seem I’m blind to storms approaching from the north. Probably due to terrain features interfering with the local wind field.

“Roll Your Own Forecasts”, which are theoretically valid for a 30 mile radius, are not only practical, but fun!

Why not give it a try?

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus and lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesar’s month of July.

August is hot and humid and summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

In August the choir of cicadas whine in the afternoon & towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude “Cape Verde” storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast. Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

August is second only to September in the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. From 1851 to 2017 there have been 389 Tropical Storms and 245 Hurricanes, 80 of which made landfall in the United States, the most notable storms being Hurricanes Camille and Katrina in 1969 and 2005, which devastated Mississippi and Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Florida in 1992.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August, however, 85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

Days grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 74.3 degrees at the beginning of the month to 64.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 13 hours 48 minutes on August 1 to 12 hours 43 minutes on August 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

August 1 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:47 PM
August 15 Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:33 PM
August 31 Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:14 PM

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month, Mercury is lost in the afterglow of sunset. On August 8th he will be at “Inferior Conjunction” or lie almost directly between the Earth and the Sun, and as the month progresses will reappear above the Eastern Horizon before dawn.

On August 29 He will reach his highest point above the Eastern horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation” when he will be 18.3 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since he will be at his highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Due to quirks in the Earth’s orbital interaction with the orbits of the other planets and the varying angles of observation through the year, sometimes the other planets appear to travel backward through the night sky with respect to the stars of the zodiac. This is an optical illusion called “apparent retrograde motion”. From July 26 to August 19, if one were to plot Mercury’s position in reference to the background star pattern, he would appear to be moving backwards against those background stars. Though this is more noticeable with the outer planets, it is barely noticeable in Mercury’s case. This feat will be repeated from November 17 to December 6.

Venus shines brightly in the west during twilight –4.2, in eastern Leo. She is getting a little lower every week in the Northern Hemisphere as her orbit tilts in favor of viewers in the Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, and now sets around the end of twilight. In a telescope Venus is a gibbous disk 61% sunlit.

On August 17 she will reach his highest point above the Western horizon or “Greatest Eastern Elongation”, when she will be 45.9 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Venus since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the bright planet in the western sky after sunset.

Mars made his closest approach to Earth on the night of July 26th. At magnitude -2.8 the blazing reddish planet is very prominent; in fact he is currently the brightest object in the late night sky, even brighter than Jupiter as he drifts through Capricorn.

You will see Mars appearing low in the southeast near the end of twilight. After dark he rises higher and shifts southward, in a weird orbital anomaly like no celestial object you normally see. Mars is highest in the south, giving the best telescopic view, around 1 a.m. daylight-saving time.

The dust storm that still blankets the Martian globe has started to thin a little, allowing faint, low-contrast views of some dark surface features.

When discussing Mercury I mentioned his “apparent retrograde motion” or backwards motion across the sky. Mars is doing this celestial skating trick also. Since Mars close approach with the Earth on July 26, Mars has also been moving retrograde and is passing the stars he passed by over two months ago, except in reverse order, and will reenter Sagittarius.

On August 28th Mars reaches its Western Stationary Point, or the point where he appears to not be moving at all, and then will begin a normal direct or prograde Eastward motion once more and the planet will begin to head back towards Capricornus, which he will re-enter on September 1st.

Jupiter shines brightly at magnitude –2.2, in Libra, in the south-southwest in twilight.

Saturn, passing above the Sagittarius Teapot glows at magnitude +1.0. Look for the yellow planet in the south just after dark. It’s to the upper right of much brighter Mars.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, at the Aries-Pisces border is high in the southeast in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Neptune, magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is high in the south in the hour before the first light of dawn.

Pluto, poor Old Pluto, the demoted Dwarf Planet, glows dimly at magnitude 14.2 just above the “handle” of the Sagittarius Teapot. Though now known a Dwarf Planet, I still think he deserves his pedestal in the Elite Nine.

But, since he has been relegated to the Funky Five, and I have included him, I’ll include his four buddies Eris, Ceres, Haumea and Makemake also.

Dwarf Planet Eris, which NASA initially labeled as the “Tenth Planet” and was temporarily named “Xena” after “Xena The Warrior Princess”, shines at an even dimmer magnitude of 18.8 lying just South of Uranus, between Cetus and Pisces.

Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude 8.8, is in Leo in the West in the twilight, not far from Venus.

Dwarf Planet Haumea, magnitude 17.7, is high overhead in Bootes at midnight.

Dwarf Planet Makemake, magnitude 17.2, is high overhead in Coma Berenices at midnight.

The origin of the name of the constellation Coma Berenices, which means “Berenice’s Hair”, has an interesting story behind it.

Legend has it that Egyptian Queen Berenice II’s husband Ptolemy III Euergetes went on a dangerous mission during the Third Syrian War. Worried for his life she swore to Aphrodite that she would cut off her hair if the goddess brought him safely home. Upon his safe return, she fulfilled her promise and cut off her hair placing it in Aphrodite’s temple. But, her hair disappeared the next day.

This made the King furious.

To appease him, the court astronomer Conon said that Aphrodite was so pleased with Queen Berenice’s offering that she had placed it in the sky, pointing to a small group of stars he hoped the King had never noticed, which pleased Ptolemy III and from that day since the group of stars that has been known as Berenice’s Hair.

The moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on August 10, when she will be 222,502 miles from Earth.

On August 11 the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky, which is known as New Moon. This phase occurs at 9:58 UTC or 4:58 AM CDT. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Partial Solar Eclipse on August 11. A partial solar eclipse occurs when the Moon covers only a part of the Sun, sometimes resembling a bite taken out of a cookie. This eclipse will be visible in parts of northeast Canada, Greenland, extreme northern Europe, and northern and eastern Asia. It will be best seen in northern Russia with 68% coverage.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on the night of August 11 & 12, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour. This shower, produce by debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1862, ranks as the best of the best, famous for producing bright meteors. The shower runs annually from July 17 to August 24. It peaks this year on the night of August 11 and the morning of August 12.

With the shower coinciding with an invisible New Moon, this should be a great show! Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Perseus, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on August 23, when she will be 252,118 miles from Earth,

August’s Full Moon will occur August 26 at 11:57 UTC or 6:57 AM CDT. August’s Full Moon was called “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore, “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw, “Sturgeon Moon” by the Algonquin because the large sturgeon fish of the Great Lakes and other major lakes were more easily caught at this time of year. This moon has also been known as the Green Corn Moon and the Grain Moon and at one time was called “Dog Days Moon” by the Colonial Americans.

Finally, in December we will be greeted by a (hopefully) bright comet, Comet Wirtanen. On December 16 it will pass 7,220,000 miles from Earth and is expected to reach magnitude 3, easily within visible range and large, being so close to the Earth.

Now some comets, well-advertised, end up being cosmic duds, so while I have my hopes up, I also will keep in mind the fizzles of the past. Such as the much heralded “Comet of The Century” Comet Kohoutek” which proved to be a yawner in 1974.

3774 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of July 19, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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I’m looking for articles and suggestions and ideas for articles for our newsletter. What would you like to see? Send suggestions to wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Thanks for your help!

This month’s meeting will be on August 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter