Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The sunny weather we are seeing deceptively distracts from the fact that Alabama is still in the midst of a severe tornado season.

As of April 25 Alabama has been struck by 53 tornadoes, causing 23 fatalities and 198 injuries.

The 53 tornadoes make 2019 13th in the number of annual tornadoes since 1950.

53 tornadoes before the end of April ranks second behind the all-time totals of 2011.

Though the Midwest storms of the last couple of days may change things, Alabama, as of April 29, is currently second nationwide in tornadoes, with Mississippi leading with 75 tornadoes.

As our season continues through May remember not to let your guard down, as our threat is far from over.

Be ready for more callouts to come.

Our next ALERT meeting will occur May 14.

I hope to see you there!

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Reminder on ALERT Operations Current Practice:

(Subject to change – times are changing!)

1. ALERT does not run nets from K4NWS, but we do follow the storms to different repeaters.
2. We are roaming operators, so we are not guaranteed to be on a specific repeater, and we may secure from a given analog repeater at any time. We may be on your repeater, but we may also be silent/not talking unless necessary.
3. We work with existing weather nets, where they exist, and follow directions/guidance from any club/ARES/Skywarn net control on the local net, if present.

Places that we can definitely be reached:

1. Internet: We monitor BMXSpotterChat in case of any reports from non-ham radio spotters, OR the ALERT Facebook page for reports from social media followers. We can relay information direct to NWS via NWSchat.
2. Digital Ham Radio: We monitor D-Star XRF334C (accessible by Peanut software also), 31013 on DMR (ALERT DMR), Yaesu Fusion ALERT-K4NWS 41300, Echolink and more.
   **DMR/D-STAR(XLX) / YSF / AllStar / EchoLink / HamShackHotline are bridged together.
   https://alert-alabama.org/blog/?page_id=1736
3. If someone is physically at K4NWS, we use REF058B on the local D-Star repeater KI4SBB or K4DSO.

Casey Benefield – NZ2O

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New/Draft D-Star REF058B – Multi-User Ops Procedure

In ALERT/K4NWS’s last callout activation 4/14/2019, K4NWS was joined on the D-Star reflector 058B by the NWS Mobile, AL Skywarn group – Rural Radio Preparedness. We’re happy to hear another Skywarn group coming back up to speed.

There were a few questions after the event from Birmingham operators/spotters. After discussing with RRPA, we feel we have a good plan for directing spotter report traffic to the appropriate NWS station.

If you’re a Skywarn spotter or NWS Station Operator, here is how K4NWS would operate when sharing digital:

Operating Digital with Multiple Served Agencies

Foreword:

The following is written as a memo of understanding, to inform storm spotters and other NWS Skywarn groups on how ALERT/K4NWS will operate when in a situation where there is more than one served agency on frequency.

Skywarn/ARES Storm Spotters:

No significant operational change for storm spotters.

Storm spotters may make storm reports on the reflector as they always have, by calling either KBMX/Birmingham NWS via K4NWS or KMOB/Mobile NWS, prior to giving your storm spotter report. This keeps it clear which office the report was intended for.

Generally, REF058B does not go into a true directed net status. In the rare event that REF058B is activated into directed net by any other group, a KBMX/K4NWS area storm spotter may request direct contact with K4NWS from the acting net control, with priority, at any time. *Keep in mind, emergency traffic comes before priority traffic. As with any directed net, please follow net control’s guidance and directions.

The Procedure for K4NWS Operators:

When multiple NWS/Skywarn groups are on the same D-Star reflector, the ALERT operator representing K4NWS will recognize other NWS partner stations by their tactical callsign(s), if they do not have an official club call for the station.

Skywarn for Mobile NWS will identify themselves as KMOB or Mobile NWS.
ALERT (Skywarn) for Birmingham NWS will identify as “K4NWS Birmingham.”
Other NWS offices may likewise choose to identify with tactical callsigns.

A station operator with either group may need to occasionally remind operators that it is a statewide reflector. Example: “Multiple NWS stations are currently available on this reflector in Alabama, and listening for storm spotter reports as priority traffic, for each area.”

*NOTE: When using tactical callsigns, the stations who are doing so must additionally identify themselves with the callsign of the control operator present, in accordance with applicable FCC Part 97 regulations, at the start/end of communication and every 10 minutes during continuous operations.

Nets on REF058B

Generally, REF058B does not become called into an active / directed net status during severe weather.

In the unlikely event that REF058B is called into an actual active net status by another group, K4NWS should act as a served agency liaison, and proactively report to net control that we are here for receiving any reports for NWS Birmingham’s area. Much like we would participate in county nets, we would participate in any other net.

Note: This is subject to change, based on feedback from our partner NWS offices, Skywarn groups, storm spotters, reflector users, and K4NWS members.

We appreciate the work that our other regional and county Skywarn groups, such as RRPA and NALSW – North Alabama Skywarn with KHUN NWS Huntsville. Thank you all for your continued partnership as we all work toward the mission of the National Weather Service: Protect life and property.

Casey Benefield – NZ2O

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Zone Assessment For Emergency Preparedness And Mitigation

In preparing for possible emergencies having a well thought out organized approach or methodology proves much more effective than a haphazard hit and miss “I got my kit” approach.

All too often people will make a cursory effort at preparation, maybe reading an article or two, buying a few items and then putting them away in a closet for “when” and then never taking them out, testing them or remaining up to date in their emergency preparedness training.

Knowledge and preparations are both perishable commodities. Knowledge fades, equipment deteriorates as items either go out of date or corrode. Then just when you need them the most you can find that the “security blanket” that gave you comfort is as worthless as wet leaves.

While you don’t want to be a morbid “Gloomy Gus”, you want to make emergency preparedness a priority, and in fact a way of life.

You want to study and learn and then apply that knowledge to your own individual lives and circumstances in an organized fashion for maximum effect.

One example of an organized approach is the “Zone Assessment” concept.

In doing a Zone Assessment you divide your corner of the world in “Zones” or concentric circles in ever increasing size or range, giving you five Zones:

Zone I – Personal / Physical
Zone II – House / Property
Zone III – Local / Neighborhood
Zone IV –State / Region
Zone V – National / International

Let’s see how this works.

ZONE I – PERSONAL / PHYSICAL

To paraphrase an old song, “I just dropped in to see what condition your condition is in”.

As with any activity in life, the starting point in emergency preparedness starts with YOU.

How are you physically?

Many people have no clue of what their true physical condition is because they are simply afraid to go to a doctor fearing “they will find something wrong.”

Well, it’s not a math quiz. If there is something wrong with you, you want to know this, for, knowing this and treating or correcting the condition might give you many good years ahead, while not knowing you have a condition, or ignoring a known condition can be a time bomb waiting to go off at any time.

For example, I have high blood pressure. Ignoring it will leave me vulnerable to a stroke, but, it is being treated, so my risk is much less than it would be otherwise.

Get a physical, if you have a problem, treat it, and as the pointy eared gentleman said “live long and prosper.”

Been to a dentist lately? If not, and if you still have chompers to worry about, you want to do so. For having a rotting tooth deciding to abscess during the aftermath of a tornado is not a good thing.

How physically fit are you?

Before I begin, I’ll be the first to admit that at 61 I will never be confused with an Olympic Gymnast.

People in the world of preparing have a tendency to overestimate their self-image of strength and endurance, preparing packs of equipment they are sure they can carry 25 miles, while nearly passing out just going from the sofa to the toilet.

Very few preparedness and survival books cover this subject and I am by no means an expert, but, assuming you are physically cleared by a doctor, which you should have done first, and are physically able to do so, try to get in as decent a shape as you can get in. For in an emergency you may need to lift debris, walk long distances or otherwise extend yourself far beyond your normal levels.

Some may opt to go to gyms for a supervised gung ho workout, which is perfectly fine. I can do it once, full bore, feel macho and then not be able to move for three days. I know this for I have
done this, proving that the song “I’m not as good as I once was, but, I’m good once as I ever was” is loaded with truth.

For me, doing a heavy workout after a full day of work is not wise, as I am tired and more prone to injuring myself, and timewise it is not possible anyway. Doing one before work leaves me worn out with a full workday ahead and everyone thinking I’m mad or sad, since I’m not my chipper self. Plus I have a condition called RBF, which basically means if I’m not grinning like a possum I look like I’m heading toward the gallows – no matter how happy and good I may feel.

So what can I do? Do what I can do.

Ignoring a book that seem to assume you are already a Navy SEAL, and picking the one that starts slowly and steadily increases your activity, I start by stretching out, running in place, increasing the time with time, and working with some weights, light at first and adding little things that others try to omit. Such as taking the stairs, parking at a safe distance and walking that distance, arguing “no thanks I don’t need help with my groceries, thank you” as I wrestle the cart away and pass the 20 year olds that have 65 year old baggers pushing their buggies to the car, and just trying to act consistently active.

Then when a setback occurs, such as illness or a time crunch, and I have to quit, I just either pick up where I left off, or start over again.

Can I run a marathon? No. But, I can probably hike you out of your shoes. Not the easy trail either.

Keep your mind active. Long ago I read that after graduation 50 percent of the American population never read another book and only 20 percent read more than one. That is sad.

Read. Exercise that mushy brain, for it needs a workout also.

Take time for you. Try not to get in ruts, or become an “appliance”, which is someone who somehow ends up doing everything and it just becomes an expectation from folk that you will keep doing so, without them considering that maybe you would like to do a few things and have “me time” also.

This can kill you both emotionally and physically.

Don’t neglect yourself spiritually also. Whether you are a person of faith or believe it is all hogwash we are spiritual creatures.

Many times leaning on “a power that is higher than I” has given people the hope, will and drive to go on when every circumstance shouted it “hopeless”.

I am a Christian. Perfect? Are you kidding? But I have seen times in life when it was all that kept me believing things would be ok.

Another aspect of the human spirit is you have around you. If you are surrounded by negative, critical people, you will become the same way, and that will damage or kill your survivability. For if you expect nothing but doom and disappointment, a completely survivable situation may become unsurvivable.

You need a balanced life – physically, mentally and spiritually.

That way you can deal with the emergencies should they arrive, and help others also.

Zone II – HOUSE / PROPERY

Here is a quick list of things to ask yourself.

Do you have a NOAA weatheradio?
Does your house have smoke and CO2 detectors?
Do you have a fire extinguisher and has it been checked recently or ever?
Do you have an escape plan for if there is a fire?
Do you have a sheltered area should a tornado threatens your home?
Do you know how to shut off the gas and water?
Do you have a list of emergency numbers posted so you won’t lose time looking for a phone book?

Emergency numbers to include are:
Police Precinct number (911 has been known to fail)
Fire Department Direct Number
Power Company
Phone Company
Gas Company
Water Company
Primary Care Physician
Pharmacy
Poison Control
Designated Family Contact
NWS Emergency Number 1-800-856-0758

Just as with people, every house has their strengths and weaknesses. For instance, a house that is well-built, but the roof leaks like a shower.

Learn the strengths of your house and property and capitalize on these. For example, use the strongest part of the house for your tornado shelter. Try to overcome, repair or compensate for the weaknesses you find.

One weakness that all homes are gaining is the push to have home phones tied to the internet. If you lose power your home telephone will die as soon as either the Wi-Fi router loses power or the UPS’s battery dies. If your cellphone battery dies or the cell tower is knocked out all you have left is RF. This is why we still keep the house phone “wired to the pole” – reliability for emergencies.

ZONE III – LOCAL / NEIGHBORHOOD

How well do you know your neighborhood, the area around your workplace and the route there and back?

One thing one should always do is to learn about your neighborhood, your workplace and their vicinity and its unique dangers, vulnerabilities and assets. Then if something happens you are already one step ahead in the game.

For example, the area in which I live has no flood threat, as it is on the side of a small hill. On the other hand I am very close to an Interstate and a main traffic artery. It is entirely possible that a tanker truck could wreck, release hazardous materials and endanger my neighborhood.

Once in my old neighborhood they were going to evacuate us at 3AM because a broken valve on a railroad tank car was venting anhydrous ammonia into the air.

Much more recently I was travelling to the doctor and found HWY 280 blocked as there had been a chemical accident at the Birmingham Water Works which had injured several people. People in the vicinity were told to shelter in place and the Brookwood Mall area had a distinct smell of chlorine in the air, prompting me to check the wind direction to see if the plume might be headed for my neighborhood a few miles down the road. If it was, though we had not been told to, we would have sheltered in place anyway.

So I know it CAN happen.

Add to this the ever-present tornado threat, a low-level earthquake threat and the ever-growing danger of unkind hooliganism, and I have a decent idea of what is possible and I should prepare for.

As for assets, in my immediate vicinity there is a fire station and two “doc in a box” clinics within walking range, a veterinarian, three drug stores, two grocery stores and there is a hospital three and one half miles away.

I also know the traffic access and choke points in case I have to make an emergency run.

The primary chokepoint is the entrance to my subdivision. If it becomes blocked for any reason, I am cut off, vehicle wise anyway from reaching or leaving my house.

The same is true at work. My workplace has one access road, lined by trees. If the trees are blown down blocking the road, we are cut off from emergency response. Until they can cut through the blockage we are on our own and if there were casualties I would have to use my CERT training to triage and treat those casualties.

I also learned all of the entrances, exits and good areas to “shelter in place” either for weather emergencies, fires or active shooters, as we live in an increasingly violent world, whether due to the possibility of former employees “going postal”, civil unrest or, the ever growing terrorist threat.

I have a “get home bag” and spare, non-conspicuous clothes in the car and locker and have mentally mapped out four possible routes to reach home from work and I know that all else failing, even my GPS, I know home is on a 220 degree compass bearing if I had to hike overland through areas where all normal landmarks have been obliterated.

Do know your neighbors?

When I was a child everyone knew each other, both good and bad, but, not so much so now.

It pays to get to know them. Even if it’s for just learning who to avoid, as not everyone is “nice”.

ZONE IV – STATE / REGION

Our primary state and regional vulnerabilities are tornado outbreaks, inland hurricanes and for North Alabama an earthquake risk from the New Madrid Fault in Missouri.

Tornados, whether from isolated supercells or from major tornado outbreaks like April 27, 2011 are all too familiar to us and aren’t going away.

Inland hurricanes can produce severe wind damage as Opal did in 1995, a tornado outbreak as Rita did when a single feeder band dropped 21 tornados in 2005 and intense flooding.

We don’t think about earthquakes much. But, from 1886 to March 2019 Alabama has had 374 earthquakes.

I’ve slept through each and every one that has occurred in my lifetime.

Between 1811 and 1812 a series of earthquakes near New Madrid Missouri occurred, estimated to be between Magnitude 7.0 – 8.0. It is believed that the question isn’t whether this event will be repeated, but, when.

If and when it does occur it will cause damage in Alabama.

A 2009 study estimated that a 7.7-magnitude New Madrid event could cause $1 billion in damages to roads and bridges in Alabama, hundreds of miles away from the epicenter.

One simulation showed Birmingham having Magnitude 6.0 earthquake damage.

My house would definitely have damage. What about yours?

Oh, at the risk causing bread and milk riot, should I even think of whispering “snow”?

No, I don’t think so either

If you haven’t already, you should get storm spotter training, have a NOAA weather radio and multiple warning sources, including news apps on your phones. I get notifications from INWS – Interactive NWS https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/ As an ALERT member you are considered a “core partner (emergency management community, government partners of an NWS office” and qualify to sign up for these alerts.

I also subscribe to Baron Weather’s Alabama SAF-T-NET, which gives notifications of potentially severe storms about to strike my neighborhood or workplace. https://www.baronweather.com/alabamasaftnet/

If you are a Ham Radio Operator get involved with ALERT, SKYWARN, ARES and your local Ham Clubs.

For more information on earthquake preparation go to https://www.shakeout.org/centralus/alabama/

ZONE V – NATIONAL / INTERNATIONAL

One of the earliest memories I have was a bright and sunny October day when I was 4 years old playing in the back yard and hearing a strange noise in the sky. Looking up I saw a pretty formation of eight planes high overhead. I thought it was the neatest thing I had ever seen.

In those days little kids weren’t expected to have knowledge and opinions on geopolitical happenings. We were only expected to be kids playing in the dirt. So this little kid did not know that he was seeing US Airforce strategic bombers, all loaded with thermonuclear weapons, being deployed to South Florida, as the US and the USSR were on the brink of nuclear war, an event now known as the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

The next time we drifted towards the brink was in 1973 when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel, and reports circulated that Soviet ships and troops were heading to Egypt. I remember my teacher coming in and saying “did you know we are on nuclear alert?”

The US vs USSR – back then this was the biggest threat to the United States and the worlds existence.

Though the threat somehow seems more distant, it is still very real. Plus now other international players have appeared on the scene.

Last year it seemed as if the US and North Korea were edging towards the brink. IF this had actually played out, and North Korea actually does have the capabilities they claim, Hawaii and the West Coast could have been targeted and inland areas downwind could have had to deal with the plumes of radioactive fallout.

A nuclear war between the US and Russia probably would not be a surprise attack, where Putin or Trump were having a bad day and just decided to “press the button”. Or at least I hope so.

Rather there would be a clear triggering incident that escalated, from shooting to heavy weaponry to tactical nuclear weapons to strategic nuclear weapons.

Some flash points would be a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe, Russia invading or “intervening” in the Middle East and advancing on Israel or the oil fields of the Persian Gulf, North Korea invading South Korea or attacking Japan, who the US is committed to defend.

Warning signs that things are more serious than usual saber rattling by leaders would include reports of the US fleet suddenly sortieing out of East Coast and Pacific naval bases. Reports of the Russian fleet sortieing out of their ports in Murmansk and Vladivostok. And, of course actual breakouts of fighting, either by NATO allies or direct fire between US and Russian forces.

That’s why having access to and keeping an eye on news sources is important. As this will let you know if things are about to become serious and not just tomcats hissing at each other.

Another nuclear threat is terrorists getting a nuclear device or constructing a “dirty bomb” designed to spread radioactive materials, or chemical weapons.

In a US vs Russia scenario Birmingham is a valid target due to it being an industrial center, a rail hub, having major highways intersecting and it being a population center, not including contamination from strikes on major Gulf Coast ports.

In a foreign terrorist scenario, they target “symbolic” targets, such as military, government and financial centers, and areas with large masses of people. So, Birmingham might not be a target rich environment in such a scenario. But, who can predict what a home grown nut will do?

Attacks do not have to be weapons of mass destruction. We all remember, or should at least September 11, 2001 when 2996 were killed in a well-planned and coordinated terrorist attack.

The threat of these types of attacks is just as real today as they were then. Terrorists, both infiltrated, imbedded, homegrown recruits and domestic could strike at any time. Whether it’s using vehicles as weapons, actual weaponry or psychological warfare designed to help them “divide and conquer” using the “A nation divided against itself cannot stand” principle, these threats are very real.

One should “be street wise”, being vigilant, with eyes and ears open, but, not acting like scared rabbits.

Well, now that I’ve cheered your lives, I will mention that there has never been a period in human history that there has not been threats, dangers and disasters.

What do you do?

Take reasonable precautions, keep your eyes open and go camping. In other words live life and have fun.

Mom once said “most of the things you worry about never happen anyway.”

But, Mom believed in being prepared also.

My parent’s generation survived a world-wide depression and world-wide war for national survival. Their generation canned and preserved, always has a stocked pantry, planted gardens and we’re hesitant to throw things out, as they valued things, knowing that might become scarce again. They were largely self-reliant.

Their children mockingly spoke of them hoarding, never throwing things out “after all they are the Depression Generation.”

Their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are watching tutorial videos, surfing websites and devouring books on how to can and preserve, build a stocked pantry, plant gardens and stockpile needed items that may become scarce during an emergncy. They are striving to be more self-reliant.

Though I don’t like the term “prepper” or “survivalist” as I don’t like pigeon holing and stereotyping, it has occurred to me that my parent’s generation we’re never “hoarders” at all. They were the first “preppers”.

As for me, I don’t call it “prepping”. I call it “stacking the deck in my favor.”

Hopefully this article will help you stack the deck in your favor also.

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Mark’s Almanac

May is the fifth month & third month of the Roman calendar. May is named for the Greek goddess Maia, who was identified with, Bona Dea, the Goddess of Fertility, who was celebrated in May.

Since ancient times the first day of the month, “May Day” has been a time of celebration. In Rome it honored Flora, the goddess of flowers.

On May the fifth Mexican’s celebrate Cinco De Mayo, the celebration Mexico’s 1862 victory over Napoleon III’s forces at Puebla. This is not, as many assume, Mexico’s Independence Day, which is actually on September 16.

Rainfall decreases in May as the Azores-Bermuda High strengthens, expands Westward over the Southeastern US & begins rerouting storm systems northward.

The door opens to the Gulf of Mexico & Gulf moisture spreads northward over the continent.

The center of maximum tornadic activity also shifts northward over the Nation’s Heartland. May is the peak tornado month, with a 42% increase over April’s amount.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and although the North Atlantic hurricane season has not arrived, occasionally a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico. From 1851 to 2018 there have been 24 Tropical Storms and 5 Hurricanes, including an 1863 Category 2 storm, the knowledge of which is based on historical reanalysis by NOAA’s Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock in 2013 and posthumously given the name Hurricane Amanda, named after, a Union ship the storm washed ashore. It made landfall near Apalachicola Florida.

60% of off-season Hurricanes occur in May

Colorado State University has issued its outlook for the 2019 tropical season.

The forecast predicts 13 named tropical systems, with five of those systems becoming hurricanes. Of those storms, two are forecasted to become major hurricanes with winds at category 3 strength or higher.

A “Normal” season sees about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

CSU says a currently weak El Nino will stay in place through the summer and fall. This will keep the average sea surface temperatures slightly below normal and the North Atlantic unusually cooler than usual. With cooler waters in place, tropical systems which need warmer water to gain strength will have trouble organizing and gaining strength.

The Atlantic Hurricane names for 2019 are: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

Hurricane names are recycled every 6 years, so this is the same list as used in 2013. The only change is Imelda, who replaces Ingrid, whose name was retired after devastating Northeastern Mexico in September 2013.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 71.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 78.4 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 13 hours 31 minutes on May 1 to 14 hours 13 minutes on May 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

May 1 Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:30 PM
May 15 Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 7:41 PM
May 30 Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:52 PM

Looking towards the sky, Mercury, magnitude -0.3, is sinking very low in the brightening dawn. He will pass behind the Sun on May 21.

Venus, magnitude –3.9, is very low in the brightening dawn. Pick up Venus just above the due-east horizon about 20 minutes before sunrise.

Mars, magnitude +1.6 in Taurus, glows in the west during and after dusk, and is getting lower every week now. He is almost as far from Earth as he ever gets.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.4, at the eastern foot of Ophiuchus, rises in the southeast around 11 – Midnight, He shines highest in the south before dawn begins.

On May 20 he will pass just South of the Moon.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius. rises around 1 AM. As dawn begins, he is the “star” 27°, almost three fists at arm’s length, to bright Jupiter’s left.

On May 22 he will pass just South of the Moon.

Uranus is moving behind the Sun.

Neptune is still deep in the glow of sunrise.

New Moon will occur May 4 at 5:46 PM CDT or 22:46 UTC. The Moon will located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky This is the best time of the month to observe faint deep sky objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

The Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower, an above average shower, peaks May 6 & 7. It is capable of producing up to 60 meteors per hour at its peak, but, most of the activity is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rate can reach about 30 meteors per hour, which is still a decent shower. It is produced by dust particles left behind by comet Halley, due to return in a mere 42 years in the summer of 2061. The shower runs annually from April 19 to May 28. It peaks this year on the night of May 6 and the morning of the May 7. The thin crescent moon will set early in the evening leaving dark skies for what should be a good show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Aquarius, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on May 13 at a distance of 229296 Miles.

Full Moon will occur May 18th at 5:11 PM CDT or 21:11 UTC. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be will be fully illuminated. May’s Moon is “Flower Moon” in Native American folklore, because of the abundance of spring flowers. It has also been called “Corn Planting Moon” & “Milk Moon”.

Since this is the third of four Full Moons in this season, it is known as a Blue Moon. This rare calendar event only happens once every few years, giving rise to the term, “once in a Blue Moon.” There are normally only three Full Moons in each season of the year. But since Full Moons occur every 29.53 days, occasionally a season will contain 4 Full Moons. The extra Full Moon of the season is known as a Blue Moon. Blue Moons occur on average once every 2.7 years.

The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on May 26 at a distance of 251117 Miles.

3944 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of April 18, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

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This month’s meeting will be on May 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone,

I hope this finds you well, amongst the piles and drifts of pollen.

The world looks as if it has been dusted with sulfur, and I can only hope that fire doesn’t join the brimstone dust that I am seeing everywhere.

Our next ALERT meeting will feature the Nominating Committee’s report of their search for the 2019 – 2020 ALERT Officers.

If you are interested in serving as an ALERT Officer, and have been a voting/operational member in good standing for over a year, let Justin Glass or Bill Rodgers know!

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the election for ALERT officers will be held at our May meeting.

One operational note. If you receive a text message or email when a callout is issued, and you are interested in responding, please call the number given in the message so you can be scheduled. If you respond via text or message, please indicate who you are by name and callsign. If you just reply “I’m available”, but, don’t indicate who you are, we may have no clue who you are.

For example, just receiving “I’m available” from skunkyhunk85@elvis.nut, but no other indication of who has sent this, doesn’t tell Russell that it is Mark WD4NYL.

Let us know who you are and come on down!

Our next ALERT meeting will occur April 9.

I hope to see you there!

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Proposed Amendment 7

To all Operational and Supporting ALERT Members,

The following proposed Amendment to the ALERT Bylaws was passed unanimously by
the ALERT Board of Directors and is presented for your consideration.

The membership at large will vote on this Amendment at our next regular meeting on April 9.

The Amendment is as follows:
Amendment 7

Section1
Those wishing to join ALERT may do so by submitting a completed membership application,
with appropriate dues to the ALERT Membership Officer.

1. A vote on the candidate member will be brought to the membership. The vote will be a
   secret ballot, reviewed by the Board.
2. Votes shall be counted by any two Board members, together in the same setting.
3. If there is a “no” vote or objection, this would result in a Board meeting or conference with the Board and the dissenting member.
4. A vote of the Board to approve or disapprove would be held in that meeting, or to be tabled if more information is needed.
5. Results will be announced at the regular meeting after the Board vote has occurred.

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Programming Your Radio

Programming a new or new to you radio can be a challenge. The more bells and whistles it has, the more grievous the process becomes. In “the old days” programming a radio ranged from “easy to challenging”, now it ranges from “painful to excruciating”. In the “old, old days” it was plug in a crystal, tweak, pray it worked and cross your fingers the owners didn’t change the repeater frequency – again.

For example, in the 1980’s Shelby County Repeater which is now on 146.980 MHz, was on 146.385 MHz +600, after being 147.070 MHz and another frequency before that, now long forgotten, all in the search for a non-interfering frequency.

Each morning just after sunrise there is usually a band opening due a natural temperature inversion formed by the rising Sun heating the upper levels of the atmosphere while the lower temperatures are still cool, which causes tropospheric ducting. Shelby County’s 146.385 MHz would lock up with a Kentucky repeater on the exact opposite frequencies, their output being on Shelby County’s input and vice versa. They would stay locked up sometimes until noon. Finally to cure this, they tried swapping the input and output frequencies, detuned a little and 146.980 MHz has worked ever since.

Though it is not in vogue, and not always pleasant, I feel that all hams really need to have an idea of how to program their radios, for reasons which will be discussed later.

Many hams programming new radios are opting to use or have a friend use CHIRP to program your radio instead.

CHIRP is defined as “a free, open-source tool for programming your amateur radio. It supports a large number of manufacturers and models, as well as provides a way to interface with multiple data sources and formats.”

When using CHIRP, the software can utilize data from Radio Reference, Repeater Book, RF Finder, DMR-MARC Repeaters, Przemienniki.net, and the preloaded data for FRS, GMRS, MURS, NOAA and several others.

It is perfectly legal to have FRS, GMRS, MURS & NOAA frequencies in your radio and monitor them. However it is illegal to transmit on them, even though MURS & FRS, for example are license free, because your radio is not type accepted by the FCC to be used on these frequencies.

The only radio frequencies which cannot be monitored legally are cellphone signals, thanks to the 1986 Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA), which make it illegal to listen to certain radio signals, most notably cellular phone calls and voice pagers.

An odd fact it is that you can legally listen to police departments, the FBI, US military including our nuclear forces and really anything you want, except for your friendly local cocaine dealer making transactions on cellphones, which I am told if you DO listen in on these frequencies is as rampant as the flu.

As for the CHIP program, I won’t go into detail about how to use this software, as it varies somewhat depending on the brand or model radio you have, and at least for my ancient brain, isn’t easily explained.

Clear as mud, perhaps being a more accurate description, in my case.

But, it is currently the most popular way of programming VHF & UHF ham radios.

I will refer you to these websites:
https://chirp.danplanet.com/projects/chirp/wiki/Home
https://chirp.danplanet.com/projects/chirp/wiki/Beginners_Guide

After you have programmed and used your radio you may wish to consider learning how to program your radio manually. There are three reasons for this suggestion.

1. ALL radio databases are out of date. The moment a database creator hits the “save” button something somewhere has already changed. Repeaters go up, repeaters come down, sub tones may be added or changed, analog repeaters go digital, digital repeaters revert to analog, and so forth. Also, databases are good to include “paper repeaters”, or repeaters that haven’t been on the air for years, but, the owner will not relinquish the frequency so the Repeater Council can reassign it to someone else.
2. If a buddy “clones” his radio settings to yours, it does not necessarily mean his settings will work for your location, due to differences in topography, geography and bum luck. For example if he is in Trussville and you are in Bessemer he will be able to hit repeaters that you can’t hear and likewise you may be able to reach repeaters that he can’t hear. Simply because of the difference in location.
3. There are times when travelling or in an emergency you may need to quickly program a frequency or enter VFO settings and you may not have a cable and computer available to do so.

Most modern radios can be manually programmed. I did not say that they are by necessarily “easy” to program, however. Some are worse than others, and the snarky admonition you oftimes see on online forums of “read the manual” really doesn’t help much because the wording of the manuals can be as vague and complicated as the original Chinese and Japanese fonts they were written in.
My secret to learning how to manually program a radio is to look online for a “cheat sheet” for your specific radio and just giving it a try, fail, try again, fail again, get frustrated, try again, somehow succeed, try again thinking “I’ve got this”, fail again, curse a little, pray about having cursed a little and finally doing it correctly with increasing consistency, and increasing speed.

In manually programming a radio there are 10 key things to learn.

1. How to turn the radio ON and set the VOLUME.
   The sounds simple enough, but, this can vary widely with each brand or model. Some have a
   rotary switch that controls both and some use a combination of separate buttons and knobs. I found the radio at my workplace completely messed up because someone thought it was too
   loud and pressed some up/down buttons thinking it was the volume, when in fact he had
   changed its frequency to somewhere in the frequency spectrum marked “parts unknown.”
2. How to UNLOCK the keypad to change channels or settings.
   Sometimes this is as simple as pressing a key symbol on the keypad.
3. How to go from CHANNEL MODE to VFO MODE.
   Sometimes this is as simple as pressing a button, with other radios you have to search through
   the menu to find this option, which may be titled “CH REF”, “CH MEM” or “FREQ” In VFO mode you can search for repeaters and simplex signals.
4. How to INPUT A FREQUENCY.
   With some radios you set this by knob, some by direct input such as 146.520.
5. How to set an OFFSET +/- or SIMPLEX.
   Usually repeaters from 145 to 147 MHz have a minus .600 MHz offset, or input. 147 to 148 MHz a plus .600 MHz offset and 440 MHz repeaters have a plus 5 MHz offset. I have seen some oddball
   reverse splits over the years, however.
6. How to set a PL TONE.
   Once upon a time a toned repeater was misinterpreted as being inhabited one of the snobby “us four, no more” groups, when in fact it was to prevent interference. This allowed the same frequency pair to be used by several cities, freeing up spectrum.

For example Birmingham’s 146.880 MHz repeater frequency is also used by Greenville, Phenix City & Sheffield. 146.820 is used by Troy, Mobile, Gadsden and Tuscaloosa, each location having a different PL Tone to avoid interference.

1. How to set SQUELCH LEVEL.
   A squelch set too high can cause one to miss a transmission, too low and static and distant
   repeaters fading in can drive you nutty.
2. How to set POWER LEVEL.
   The FCC rules specify using the minimum power necessary for communications. For an HT
   transmitting high power will drain your battery, but, sometimes is unavoidable. Base stations
   running a kilowatt to reach a repeater they can throw a rock at, is another story altogether.
3. How to program a CHANNEL or MEMORY POSITION.
   I try to program my radios in “banks”. Channel positions 1 through 25, for instance will be
   for two meters, positions 40 through 50 will cover 440 MHz. The channel just below channel 1,
   which may be channel 128 or with some radios channel 0, will be NOAA weather radio. This serves two purposes: 1. I can get weather information. 2. It acts as a channel marker, so I
   can know where I am “on the dial” without looking. This is very valuable while driving.

This method is actually a throwback to old CB days. In the Stone Age of the mid 1970’s, 23 channel CB radios used a 24 position rotary switch for the channel selector. Between channels 22 and 23 there was a blank position and you could know where you were on the dial based on that dead spot.

Why a blank spot on the dial?

Many assumed that there might be a “hidden” channel. As it turns out this was true.

Early synthesized CBs used a method of generating thier 23 channels by mixing the signals of a set of 6 crystals with the signals of another set of 4 crystals. This arrangement gave 24 channels. But, only 23 channels were authorized. So what do you do with the unwanted frequency of 27.235 MHz?

To me the logical solution would be just use a 23 position switch and ignore that frequency. But, logic does not always win and so they used a 24 position switch leaving a disconnected blank slot, which some nefarious souls would reconnect and call “channel 22A”.

When the CB band was expanded to 40 channels 27.235 MHz became channel 24 and the blank spot was omitted, which was inconvenient, especially for the visually impaired, as they had depended on that blank dial position to keep track of where they were on the dial.

Today NOAA weatheradio is my marker.

My primary emergency frequency is 146.880 MHZ. That is “Channel 1”.

Channel 2 is exactly reversed, transmitting on 146.880, receiving 146.280 MHz. This way if the repeater dies, and the other station does not know how to go to 146.880 direct, I can still communicate. He hears me on the repeater output, I hear him on the repeater input.

This also allows you to help an NCS by listening on the input for stations trying to reach nets, but, are just out of range of the repeater.

Channel 3 is 146.880 direct.  This is the only repeater combination I have set this way. All 
other frequency pairs are programmed the “usual” way, which for me is numerical order.

When synthesized rigs first came out there was a theory that having frequencies in a random
arrangement “put a strain on the PLL.”  I always preferred a sequential arrangement because
it is easier to find things.

If a new repeater pops up, I just stick it at the end of the group, as I’m too lazy to start shifting things around.

1. How to exit VFO mode and go back to CHANNEL MODE.
   Maybe it’s a simple button push, maybe a pain in the neck search, poke and pray.

Other useful hints:

If you program all your radios, especially HTs with the same frequency configurations, so you don’t have to wonder “where is the Podunk Repeater on this hunk of junk?”

Keep the batteries charged.

Use the thing and let folk know you are still “above the daises”.

The more you use the radio, the more familiar you will become with it. It can become as trusted a friend as the computer you are using or the smartphone you are sneaking peeks at work.

Those are some of my suggestions. I’m sure you have some to.

What are they? Share them with us.

After all, this is your newsletter also.

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Mark’s Almanac

The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”. This time of year being when buds open. It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.

Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s is March 26. The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.

Snowfall is still possible though, as April 3, 1987’s 5 inches proves. The latest trace of snow was April 25, 1910.

April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain. April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.

North Atlantic Tropical activity remains at a minimum. From 1851 to 2018 there has never been a Hurricane and only two Tropical Storms – Ana in 2003 and Arlene in 2017 which affected only shipping.

April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible. There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March. 25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.

From April 1950 to 2018, 8956 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2018, 1772 deaths and as of 2013, 29,090 injuries.

As of 2017, Oklahoma leads the nation in killer violent tornados, having had 64, followed by Iowa with 54, Texas with 53, Kansas with 48 and Alabama 44.

As of 2015, Alabama ranks fourth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. They along with Illinois belong to the “over 400 club” having had over 400 tornadoes since 1950.

As of 2017 Alabama leads the nation in F5 & EF5 tornadoes, having had 9, followed by Oklahoma and Kansas with 8, and two way tie for third between Iowa and Texas with 6.

As of 2016 Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths with 633, followed by Texas with 552 and Mississippi with 477.
The counties most likely to be struck by violent EF5 tornadoes are Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, Madison and Marion, all of which have been struck three times.

Tuscaloosa has been stuck by four F4 & EF4 tornadoes including 1932, 1975, 2000 & 2011.

The suburbs of Birmingham, including Oak Grove, Pleasant Grove, McDonald Chapel and Smithfield have been struck by two F4 & EF4 tornadoes in 1956 & 2011 and by two F5 tornadoes in 1977 & 1998.

My Grandfather, who passed away in 1958, once said “someday a big tornado is going to go right up Jones Valley and tear everything up”.

Indeed there is no logical or climatological reason why and an EF4 or EF5 tornado hasn’t struck or won’t strike the densely populated areas of Birmingham, including the high rises of downtown.

Whether it is due to “Divine Providence” or “random chance” otherwise known as “luck”, Birmingham has been spared.

When will that luck run out?

Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:

April 18, 1953 F3 Lee & Russell County 6 dead 195 injured
April 18, 1953 F3 Shelby County 8 dead 495 injured
April 15, 1956 F4 Jefferson County 25 dead 200 injured “McDonald Chapel Tornado”
April 18, 1969 F4 Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties 2 dead 15 injured

April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” or produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949. The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado. The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day. Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio. The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “The Day Of 100 Tornadoes”.

April 3, 1974 F5 Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured
April 3, 1974 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured
April 3, 1974 F5 Limestone-Madison 28 dead 260 injured
April 4, 1977 F5 Jefferson County 22 dead 130 injured “Smithfield Tornado”
April 1, 1998 F3 Russell County 2 dead 23 injured
April 8, 1998 F5 Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured “Oak Grove Tornado”

April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,
with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada. April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes. Of 348
people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non-tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.

Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.

April 27, 2011 F5 Marion County 18 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Marion County 7 dead 100 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured
April 27, 2011 F3 Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured
April 27, 2011 F4 Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured
April 3, 2012 F2 Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured
April 28, 2014 F3 Limestone County 1 dead 30 injured

Always beware of the storms of April.

Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 61.1 degrees at the beginning of the month to 71.3 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 12 hours 32 minutes on April 1 to 13 hours 29 minutes on April 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

April 1 Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:08 PM
April 15 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:18 PM
April 30 Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:29 PM

For other locations go to http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php and input the locations and dates you are interested in.

Looking skyward, at the beginning of the month Mercury is very deep in the glare of sunrise. As the month progresses Mercury reemerges in the morning sky, reaching Greatest Western Elongation, or the highest point above the horizon, 27.7 degrees above the Sun on April 11. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Mercury will pass within 4.3° of Venus on April 16.

Venus magnitude –3.9, rises above the east-southeast horizon in early dawn. It’s still quite low by the time dawn grows bright.

Venus will reach aphelion, its farthest distance from the Sun, April 18 when she will be 67,693,000 miles from the Sun.

Mars, magnitude +1.5, in Taurus, glows in the west after dusk, near the Pleiades Star Cluster.

Jupiter, magnitude –2.3, in the feet of Ophiuchus, rises in the southeast around 1 AM. He is high in the south just as dawn begins to brighten, the best time to observe it telescopically. The farther south you are, the higher it will be.

A medium-sized telescope should be able to show you some of the details of Jupiter’s cloud bands, while a good pair of binoculars should allow you to see Jupiter’s four largest moons – Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto as bright dots on either side of the planet.

Each night their positions will have changed as they continue the waltz they have danced with Jupiter for millennia uncounted.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius, glows in early dawn, to the left or lower left of Jupiter by about 26°.

Saturn’s rings are currently tilted +23.5 degrees as viewed from Earth. Small telescopes will easily reveal his rings along with a small dot nearby, the moon Titan. The only moon with a dense atmosphere and the only moon besides Earth’s that has had a spacecraft land on its surface. The European Space Agency’s Huygens probe in January 2005, which is also the farthest landing from Earth a spacecraft has ever made.

On April 25 Saturn will pass just North of the Moon.

Uranus will pass directly behind the Sun on April 22.

Neptune is hidden in the glare of the Sun.

April’s New Moon will occur April 5 at 3:51 AM CDT or 8:51 UTC. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.

The Moon will be the closest to the Earth or Perigee on April 16, when she is 226309 miles from the Earth.

April’s Full Moon occurs April 19 at 5:12 AM CDT or 11:12 UTC. This Moon was known as “Full Pink Moon” in Native American folklore as it marked the reappearance of pink wild ground phlox. This moon was also called by various tribes, the “Sprouting Grass Moon”, “Growing Moon”, “Egg Moon” and “Fish Moon”, as this is when shad swam upstream to spawn.

The Lyrid Meteor Shower which, runs annually from April16 – 25, peaks on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23. This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.

This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.

The waning gibbous moon will block out many of the fainter meteors this year, but if you are patient you should still be able to catch a few of the brightest ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Lyra, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be the farthest distance from the Earth or Apogee on April 28, when she is 251392 miles from the Earth

Evenings in early April offer an excellent opportunity to view the zodiacal light. Zodiacal light is a faint, roughly triangular whitish glow seen in the night sky which appears to extend up from the vicinity of the sun along the ecliptical plane. It is caused by sunlight scattered by space dust in the orbital plane of the Earth.

From the Northern Hemisphere, early spring is the best time of year to observe this elusive glow after sunset. It appears slightly fainter than the Milky Way, so you’ll need a clear moonless sky and an observing site located far from the city. Look for the cone-shaped glow, which points nearly straight up from the western horizon, after the last vestiges of twilight have faded away.

This is the time of year when the dim Little Dipper – Ursa Minor – juts to the right from the North Star, Polaris, which is the end of the Little Dipper’s handle, during late evening. The much brighter Big Dipper curls over high above it, “dumping water” into it. They do the reverse in the fall.

Now that it’s spring, the signature fall-and-winter constellation Cassiopeia is retreating down after dark. But for mid-northern latitudes Cassiopeia is circumpolar, never going away completely. Look for it fairly low in the north-northwest these evenings. It’s standing nearly on end.

3926 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on April 9 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone,

The Birminghamfest is here, and I hope you can attend.

The Birminghamfest will occur Friday and Saturday March 1 & 2 at its new home at the Trussville Civic Center. For more information go to http://birminghamfest.org/

Three Saturday forums of particular interest will be:

10 – 11 AM Weather Preparation by FOX-6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt Fireside Room 3
11 – 12 PM ARES – Statewide by David Gillespie W4LHQ AL SEC Fireside Room 2
12 – 1 PM ALERT by Casey Benefield NZ2O President Fireside Room 2

Our next ALERT meeting will be on Tuesday, March 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

Hope to see you there!

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Non-Amateur Radio Options For Emergency Preparedness

This topic may seem like an odd subject to discuss, as the Newsletter has always promoted Amateur Radio as the go to approach for Emergency Communications and Preparedness. The Newsletter was originally designed as an outreach to ALERT members and prospective members, but, over the years has it has evolved and is reaching an ever broadening readership, both, Amateur and Non-Amateur. The following applies to both groups, either as information to the unlicensed or as a resource for hams addressing the problem that will be covered.

In the February 2018 Newsletter I wrote an article titled “The Strangers Among Us” covering the increasingly frequent practice of Preppers and others purchasing ham equipment, most notably $20 Baofeng UV-5R handie talkies to “put in my bug out bag” or for buddies to use covertly in the woods for hunting, and other activities, all without bothering to obtain an Amateur Radio License.

On Social Media forums dealing with Amateur Radio or Emergency Preparedness, those getting these radios seem genuinely surprised and sometimes irritated when a ham tells them “you do know you need an FCC license to use this, don’t you?”

To play devil’s advocate for a moment, if you look at advertisements on Amazon, EBay, Wish or other online retail sites, unless you read the comments section, if they have one, there is not a single reference to any licensing requirement. So, it’s entirely possible that many, if not most people do not realize that an FCC license is required.

Others simply don’t care. “In an emergency, who cares?”, “just another buck in the governments wallet”, “they just want to be able to track you”, “my beeswax, not yours” etc, etc.

I and others try to explain things to them, my usual spiel being variations of:

“Why bother getting a license?

Legality aside, ham radios aren’t just a “key the mic & talk” situation. By going through the process you learn how to communicate effectively. You learn about where you will have the best results range and propagation wise, both frequency and location wise. You learn how to build and repair antennas for instance. You learn how not to interfere or hamper emergency communications, causing more harm than good. Plus, and this is based on actual experience, if you are in trouble and try to talk on one, hams don’t know whether to believe you are really needing help or just another unlicensed person squirreling around with a stolen Radio. My group learned this the hard way after dispatching EMTs to a vacant field based on a realistic sounding bogus call. Plus part of “Preparation” is practicing. As with any type of equipment or skills, you want to learn what will or won’t work now, before the SHTF, not after, when everything has crapped out and time is critical and you end up wondering why nothing seems to be working as advertised. Learn now, practice now. Think of studying for one as just another way of preparing. The more knowledge you have, the more you stack the deck in your favor if the SHTF. As to the “I don’t want the government to track me” thinking I sometimes hear, believe me, they already can easily do that by websites visited, credit & debit cards used, social media posts and by Facebook groups frequented. So, that cat is already out of the bag. By getting a license and getting involved you may be surprised at how many hams share your same interests and will help you out setting things up. Not preaching at you, just explaining. Come join us. It’s fun and we need you! http://www.arrl.org/getting-licensed“

Some seem interested, some don’t. Some indicate appreciation, and at any rate I haven’t been cursed out – yet.

Fortunately most can’t figure out how to program the radios anyway and the radios end up being forgotten in a dusty backpack, with the batteries corroding and leaking everywhere. But, there are always a few “helpful folk”, sometimes hams, which walk them through the process of using CHIRP and other methods to program and use these unlicensed radios. Which to me maybe isn’t best thing for them to be doing, for if the ones they help do end up “bootlegging it up” on the ham bands without a license, they have at the least “enabled them” and at the worst they have “aided and abetted” them.

Amateur radio, if you learn how to legally and properly use one, is the best, most versatile means of emergency communications available. However, if one isn’t interested or willing to follow the proper and sensible means of getting into the realm, there are other radio services available, that are effective and do not require a license.

If you or someone you know wants to have two way radio communications capability, but, have no interest or intention of getting a license, the following “common man” (meaning they don’t cost a fortune) options are available to you.

The first is by no means a secret.

CB Radio

The Class D Citizen’s Radio Service or “Citizens Band” has a much checkered past. Hams hated it from the start, since the band was culled out of the 11 Meter Ham Band, which covered 26.960 to 27.230 MHz.

But, the main reason many hams looked down on the service was the operating procedures or lack thereof of the operators.

“Key down, key down, key down, Unit 147 Roundman, Unit 147 Roundman, Unit 147 Roundman in Central Alabama, Central Alabama, Central Alabama, ghost talkin’, ghost talkin’, ghost talkin on the eleven meter business band QRT and standin’ by on the side Woooooooooooooooooooooo.”

Hearing this nonsense, which was often accompanied by an annoying echo mic that made people sound as if they are standing in the bottom of a well, with a signal bleeding over half the radio spectrum, hardly inspired respect. Not to mention “Freebanding”, the practice of illegally using frequencies outside of the CB Band.

Fortunately there is much less of this foolishness now than in the “old days”.

In the early days these problems didn’t exist.

The original concept was for CB to be for short range communications, sort of the “poor man’s business-band radio” (even today the current fees for Business Band licenses are in the three digit range), and CB regulations were structured similarly to those regulating the Business Band radio service, and a $20 license was required.

Until 1975, officially only channels 9-14 and 23 could be used for “interstation” calls to other licensees. Channels 1-8 and 15-22 were reserved for “intrastation” communications among units with the same license. Channel 9 was reserved as the emergency channel, similar to Channel 16 in the VHF Marine Band. After the inter-station/intra-station rule was dropped, channel 11 was reserved as a calling frequency for the purpose of establishing communications; however, this was withdrawn in 1977.

During this early period, it was common for a town to adopt an inter-station channel as its “home” channel. This helped prevent overcrowding on Channel 11, enabling a CBer to monitor a town’s home channel to contact another CBer from that town instead of a making a general call on Channel 11.

At first the system actually worked.

During the 1960’s very little activity was heard on the CB band. This I know because one Christmas, when I was 7 or 8 years old, I was given some Channel 14 walkie talkies (no one called them HT’s back then) which I and my brother played with. These, sets, while being crystal controlled for transmit, had very wide open receivers, receiving anything in the 11 Meter band, because they were basically junk radios. During the brief time we used them, I heard only one other station come through the ether.

Ten years later, in 1976, I found one of the pair in the closet and out of curiosity popped a 9 volt battery in and thought the receiver must have been shot, as there were dozens upon dozens of people doubling, tripling, cussing and screeching on top of each other.

The CB Boom was booming.

Two factors made the CB Boom the disaster that it was. One being that it was the fad of the day which suddenly plopped two million people into 23 channels, soon to be increased to 40, stretching from 26.965 to 27.405 MHz. This seemingly drew every lunatic on the planet. The second factor was that the boom hit just as the sunset cycle was heading towards its peak. So not only did you have to deal with the local nut cases, you had a few hundred thousand intimate friends from California dumping in on you via the ionosphere as well.

Why the FCC chose a DX band for a short range communications service is beyond me. They finally lifted the 155 mile distance limitation in 2017, while maintaining the power limitations of 4 watts on AM and 12 watts for SSB

But, to be fair, even back then, though it didn’t seem as such, more operators than not wanted and tried to operate in as “proper a fashion” as they knew how, as many were or later would became hams. I had a CB, still do in fact, and I observed the rules, trying to emulate the hams I heard on my scanner and followed the “try to be the example you want to see” theory.

Though there are still many stations on CB, the days of the Boom are long over.

Today if you are near a city, at times the band can still resemble the days when it was the “Wild West Of The Radio Dial” as it was during those peak days of the 1970’s, when it was muddled maelstrom of muck.

However, if you are away from a city, what CB activity you may actually hear is much more “tame” being comparable to 2 meter operations. So for unlicensed base to base, mobile to base or mobile to mobile operations, CB is a viable affordable option. CB was heavily used by emergency relief teams after Katrina, and I have always said, hams should have a CB in their “tool kit”. Especially when travelling.

FRS – Family Radio Service

The Family Radio Service, or FRS, is an unlicensed, simplex only, FM UHF personal radio service used by families, children, and campers to communicate. I also hear businesses use them, as they view it as an unlicensed low cost Business Band.

The FRS consists of 22 channels in the 462 MHz and 467 MHz range, all of which are shared with General Mobile Radio Service. Channel 1 is the default “calling channel”.

FRS radios are limited to 2 Watts on channels 1-7 and 15-22 and 0.5 watts on channels 8 – 14. Many FRS radios have provisions for using sub-audible PL tones to filter out unwanted chatter from other users on the same frequency, and add some degree of privacy.

https://wiki.radioreference.com/index.php/FRS/GMRS_combined_channel_chart

FRS radios must use only permanently attached antennas, though there are also table-top FRS “base station” radios that have whip antennas. This limitation intentionally restricts the range of communications, allowing greatest use of the available channels by the community.

FRS manufacturers generally, and I might add, perhaps deceptively, exaggerate the radio’s range.
Under perfect conditions, hill top to hill top or over open water, 35 miles or more is possible. However, under normal conditions, with line of sight blocked by buildings or trees, FRS has an actual range of about 0.3 to 1 mile.

I have used these in State Parks and while hiking and they do a very decent job.

These inexpensive radios are the most commonly seen radios out there. I see them displayed at department stores, drug stores and of course online.

Hams should have one or two of these in their “RF Arsenal” also.

“
MURS – Multi-Use Radio Service

Established in 2000, the Multi-Use Radio Service is a low power, short range, unlicensed personal radio service in the 150 MHz band. The FCC defines it as “a private, two-way, short-distance voice or data communications service for personal or business activities of the general public.”

MURS radios are rated at 2 watts. Antenna height is limited to 20 feet above structure or 60 feet above ground, whichever is the greater.

MURS is authorized five channels that were previously in the Industrial/Business Radio Service and were known as the “color dot” frequencies in Part 90 of the FCC rules.

MURS Designated Frequencies

MURS 1 = 151.8200
MURS 2 = 151.8800
MURS 3 = 151.9400
MURS 4 = 154.5700 “Blue Dot”
MURS 5 = 154.6000 “Green Dot”

These radios are more expensive than CB or FRS Radios. But, still within my “common man” (I could afford them) definition.

GMRS General Radio Mobile Service

In the discussion of FRS radios, the General Mobile Radio Service was mentioned.

The GMRS is a land-mobile FM UHF radio service designed for short-distance two-way communication. GMRS shares the same frequencies as the FRS but can use higher power, 5 watts on Channels 1 – 7, as opposed to the FRS 2 watts, 50 watts on Channels 15 – 22 as opposed to the FRS 2 watts, and though there are none in the Birmingham area, repeaters are allowed.

This service DOES require a license.

Any individual in the United States who is at least 18 years of age and not a representative of a foreign government may apply for a GMRS license by completing the application forms 159 and form 605, either on paper or online through the FCC’s Universal Licensing System. Though no exam is required, there is a $70 fee for the 10 year license.

A GMRS individual license extends to immediate family members and authorizes them to use the licensed system and they are allowed to communicate with FRS users on those frequencies that are shared between the two services. GMRS individual licenses do not extend to employees, or non-family members. Non-family members must be licensed separately.

Licensees are entitled to communicate among themselves for personal or business purposes

In any case, each GMRS station must be identified by transmission of its FCC call sign at the end of a transmission or a series of transmissions, and at least once every 15 minutes for a series lasting more than 15 minutes. The call sign may be spoken or sent with CW. A repeater handling properly identified transmissions of others is not required to send its own station identification.

As we close, I will remind you that this article was not written to discourage people from getting a ham radio license, but, rather to help those considering communications methods by giving them options to consider.

If you are not willing to go through the licensing process, but, want a method of talking between vehicles or a base camp. Ham radio is probably not for you. But, CB would be.

If you are not willing to go through the licensing process, but, wish to talk to your kids in the mall, the woods or talk to your fishing or off-road buddies, then FRS maybe for you.

If you are not willing to go through the licensing process, but, want to have “tactical” communications for “reenactments” or for prepper groups operating in the backwoods, then MURS might be for you.

If you are a ham radio operator in Emergency Communications then having CB, FRS, MURS and even GMRS might be an option you want to include, as it gives you more RF options to choose from.

In the Bushcraft world there is a principle called “The Fire Triangle”. It states you can’t have a fire unless you have the three parts of the triangle, which are fuel, heat and oxygen.

In radio communications we have our own “RF Triangle”. Besides having equipment, to communicate successfully you need to know when, where and how to use your equipment.

“When” can depend on the solar cycle, time of day propagation wise or the most likely times people are going to be on a radio, for instance chances are better during commuting as opposed to 3 AM.

“Where” can depend on what your target is. Ordinarily if you want to reach Ottawa you won’t be able to do so on 2 meters, likewise talking to a town a county few miles away may not be possible on 160 meters.

“How” depends on the type of equipment, both radio and antenna you are using and what mode you are using. Plus proper operating procedures, as otherwise should you try using ham radio without at least rudimentary knowledge of how to do so you might as well be talking into a pine cone.

People venture into ham radio for many reasons. Whether it’s for Emergency Preparedness, to augment outdoor adventures, to talk to distant lands or to experiment with technology old and new, they are all valid reasons to get into the hobby.

A ham radio license does not make you a “radio expert”. It’s the first step in the journey. You will, if you are wise, never quit learning. 41 years ago I began this journey. I certainly don’t claim to know it all and am still learning daily.

Many times when one looks back on life they see things they would if they could, have done differently or not at all. Looking back, getting into ham radio was one of the wiser things I have done.

If you venture into the hobby, I think you will find this true for you also.

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Birmingham NWS Spring 2019 Storm Spotter Courses

The Birmingham NWS office will present several online Basic Spotter Courses and a single online Advanced Spotter Course this Spring. These online classes allow individuals to complete the courses in the comfort of their own home or office with the use of https://www.join.me/
meeting site.

By attending any course, which runs about 1.5 – 2 hours, individuals or a group of individuals will become SKYWARN Storm Spotters.

Unless you are in need of or just want to attend a refresher Course, you do not need to attend more than one Basic SKYWARN Course, as the material covered is the same; however it is required you to attend at least one Basic SKYWARN Course before taking the Advanced SKYWARN Course.

These courses are two-way, meaning you will be able to interact with the meteorologist leading the training. You will be muted while training is in-progress, and unmuted when applicable (e.g., for questions); or, you can use the built-in chat feature.

The current online schedule is as follows:

Basic Class Thursday, February 28 at 6:30 PM Use Session Code 639-949-245
Basic Class Tuesday, March 5 at 6:30 PM Use Session Code 139-919-548
Basic Class Thursday, March 7 at 1:00 PM Use Session Code 935-889-029
Basic Class Thursday, March 14 at 6:30 PM Use Session Code 161-839-700
Basic Class Tuesday, March 26 at 1:00 PM Use Session Code 554-206-449
Basic Class Wednesday, March 27 at 6:30 PM Use Session Code 267-377-880
Advanced Class Thursday April 4 at 6:30 PM Use Session Code 804-008-842

Enter the session code at https://www.join.me/

The on-site will be at:

Lee County
Basic Class
Wednesday, March 6 at 1:00 PM
University Campus Safety & Security
543 West Magnolia Avenue
Auburn, Alabama

Please e-mail to register:
ljl0003@auburn.edu

These classes will help you provide the NWS the vital “ground truth” information they need to verify radar indications, target their attention and help you relay reports in a clear manner to the NWS, either directly via the 1-800-856-0758 Storm Reporting Hotline, online at http://www.weather.gov/bmx/submit_storm_report or amateur radio. This knowledge helps SKYWARN Net Control stations filter reports, by giving them knowledge of what reporting stations are trying to describe. This way they can tell if the report is a valid report, an invalid report by an overly excited operator or a valid, but, poorly described report, which without this knowledge would be mistakenly dismissed.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/bmx/skywarnschedule

If you don’t mind travelling to North Alabama, you might consider NWS Huntsville’s training classes also.

For further information on these classes visit: http://www.weather.gov/hun/skywarn

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally called Martius, March is the third month & first month of the Roman calendar. March is named for Mars, the god of war, and was the start of the military campaign season.

The beginning of “Meteorological Spring”, which is based on changes in temperature and precipitation, not the solar angle, is March 1

March is a wet month. Most floods occur in March and rainfall averages around 6 inches.
Tornadic activity sharply increases in March with there being an increase of 2.2 times the number of tornadoes over the February amount. The focal point for this tornadic activity is the Gulf States.

March is the hail maximum for the Deep South. This is due both to the number of thunderstorms & due to the freezing level still being near the surface. This allows hail to form at lower altitudes and reach the ground intact, as opposed to summer months, when the freezing level is higher and near surface level temperatures are higher melting the hail into liquid before impact.

North Atlantic Tropical activity remains at a minimum. From 1851 to 2018 there has been only one Hurricane to occur. A 100 MPH unnamed Hurricane which affected the Lesser Antilles in March 6- 9, 1908. Some sources also cite a pre-Civil War Tropical Storm also occurring, but others do not.

South Atlantic Tropical activity doesn’t have a sharp peak as the North Atlantic season does in September, however currently March has a thin lead in activity, as from 1957 – 2017 there have been 10 identified Tropical Systems, including the only known South Atlantic Hurricane – Hurricane Catarina which struck Brazil March 28, 2004.

Brazilian authorities at first were unwilling to admit that Catarina was a hurricane, for up until that time is was considered impossible for the South Atlantic to generate a tropical system, due to wind shear, cold sea surface temperatures and the lack of storm systems from which a storm could develop. With extensive damage from an impossible storm looking at them, they finally reluctantly agreed that maybe NOAA’s opinion was right.

Meanwhile, back in Alabama…

Killing frosts are gone and the last average frost is on March 16.

March is a snow month for Alabama & there is a 45% chance of snow up to one inch, and an 8% chance of one inch or more.

The good news is that there is hope on the horizon as Spring will arrive at Vernal Equinox on March 20 at 21:58 UTC or 4:58 P.M. CDT.

The Sun will shine directly on the equator and there will be nearly equal amounts of day and night throughout the world. This is also the first day of fall, or Autumnal Equinox, in the Southern Hemisphere.

Remember to get the eggs out, as it is said that you can stand eggs on their ends at the hour of equinox.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 49.0 degrees at the beginning of the month to 60.7 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 11 hours 28 minutes on March 1 to 12 hours 30 minutes on March 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

March 1 Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 5:44 PM
March 15 Sunrise 6:58 AM Sunset 6:55 PM
March 31 Sunrise 6:36 AM Sunset 7:07 PM *Daylight Savings Time

Why the sunrise is later midmonth as opposed to the first and the last of the month is due to a combination of the quirks in the Earth’s orbit, it’s axial tilt and it being near equinox affecting the length of day based on sunlight as opposed to the measurement of time based on the Earth’s rotation.

For other locations go to http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php and input the locations and dates you are interested in.

Daylight Savings Time begins at 2 AM on March 10. So remember to “spring forward” one hour. This, of course means I will lose one hour of “beauty sleep”, which is something I desperately need.

I don’t particularly care for Daylight Savings Time. I share the same opinion I find on the “Republic Of Lakotah” website:

When told the reason for daylight saving time the old Indian said…
“Only a white man would believe that you could cut a foot off the top of a blanket and sew it to the bottom of a blanket and have a longer blanket.”

Saint Patrick’s Day is Saturday March 17, and you better participate by wearing a Touch O’ The Green or you will be plagued by leprechauns and gnomes. Not a pleasant experience, I can assure you.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury (magnitude 0.0) is still near his highest point in the evening sky. Look or him low in the west as twilight fades. At the first of the month he is the brightest object near the horizon, but, is fading and falling fast. By mid-month he will be lost in the Sun’s glare and will pass between the Sun and Earth, or be in Inferior Conjunction, on March 14.

But Mercury dwindles in brightness by about half this week, from magnitude –0.8 to 0.0. Still, there’s nothing in that part of the sky that’s nearly as bright to confuse it with (except airplanes!)

Venus (magnitude –4.1), rises well before Sunrise. In a telescope Venus is dazzling white and gibbous.

Mars (magnitude +1.1, in Aries) still glows high in the west-southwest at nightfall and sets around 11 p.m. In a telescope he is a tiny reddish blob.

Jupiter (magnitude –2.0, in Virgo) rises well before dawn.

Saturn (magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius or as my Mom would teasingly say “Shaggytaurus”) rises well before dawn. On March 28, Saturn will be 0.1° North of the Moon.

Venus, Jupiter and Saturn are all nicely arrayed this month. As dawn gets under way Venus shines in the low southeast, and Jupiter is the bright dot three or four fists at arm’s length to its upper right. Look for Saturn, much fainter, about sixth to a third of the way from Venus to Jupiter. The line is lengthening; all three planets move a little farther away from each other each morning.

Jupiter appears twice as Venus large in apparent diameter, but its surface brightness is some 50 times dimmer.

That’s mostly due to Jupiter being seven times farther from the illuminating Sun.

The effect of the distance is deceiving, as Venus and Jupiter have similarly bright albedos or reflectivity. Jupiter’s cloud tops reflect an average 52% of the sunlight that hits them, while the clouds of Venus reflect 65%. Pictures of Jupiter are rarely displayed in a way that shows this similarity; websites and magazines usually prefer to increase the darkness and contrast of Jupiter to emphasize details in its clouds.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, at the Aries-Pisces border) hides below Mars.

Neptune is lost in the sunset, and will pass behind the Sun on March 6.

3917 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of February 21, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

The Moon will be at her greatest distance from Earth or apogee at 252,520 miles on March 4.

New Moon will occur March 6 at 10:02 UTC or 4:04 AM CST. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at her closest distance from Earth or perigee at 223,308 miles on March 19.

March’s first Full Moon will occur on March 2 at 2:43 PM CDT or 19:43 UTC. This full moon was known by early Native American tribes “Worm Moon”. So called because the rains disturb the earthworms & they are seen wiggling around after the rains.

This moon has also been known as the Full Crow Moon, the Full Crust Moon, the Full Sap Moon, and the Lenten Moon.

Celestial carnivores are emerging from hibernation. After dinnertime at this time of year, five carnivore constellations are rising upright in a ragged row from the northeast to south. They’re all seen in profile with their noses pointed up and their feet (if any) to the right. These are The Great Bear, Ursa Major in the northeast, with the Big Dipper as its brightest part, Leo the Lion in the east, Hydra the Sea Serpent in the southeast, The Lesser Dog, Canis Minor higher in the south-southeast, and The Greater Dog, bright Canis Major in the south.

Sirius, shining at magnitude −1.46, the brightest night time star, blazes high in the south on the meridian, in Canis Major by about 8 or 9 p.m. Using binoculars, you will find a fuzzy spot 4° south of Sirius, directly below it when directly South. Four degrees is somewhat less than the width of a typical binocular’s field of view.

That dim little patch of gray haze is open star cluster Messier 41, a small gravitationally bound group of 100 stars about 2,200 light-years away, and moving away from us at 869 miles per second. Sirius, by comparison, is only 8.6 light-years away.

Canopus, the second-brightest star after Sirius, lies 36° almost due south of Sirius. That’s far enough south that it never appears above the horizon if you are above latitude 37° N, such as southern Virginia, southern Missouri and central California. Luckily we lie south of that latitude, with our horizon lying, in the case of Central Alabama, around latitude 33°. So give Canopus, which crosses low above the horizon, due south just 21 minutes before Sirius does, a peak.

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This month’s ALERT meeting will be on March 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone

Our spring tornado season is just around the corner and now is the time to review your plans and procedures for those storms to come.

Take this time brush up on your skills. Don’t wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late.

In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions:

Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready?
Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working?
Are the batteries charged?
Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources.
Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings?
If you are on the NWSChat, is your password up to date?
Is your training and knowledge fresh, or do you need to do a quick review?

Are you prepared both at home and at work?

In preparing, remember that keeping yourself and your family alive and intact during and after the storms is your number one priority.

Here’s hoping that your February will be peaceful and safe.

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The Woes Of Forecasting Winter Weather

“Kind of missed it didn’t they?”, “I survived Snowmageddon 2019, ha, ha, ha” “I’m gonna give Spann and Dice a piece of my mind.” “What am I going to do with 18 gallons of milk…gee thanks a lot.”

Though I love meteorology, but, right now is one of those times I’m glad I’m NOT a meteorologist. It’s bad enough to be blamed on soaked weddings, wind-blown field goals and soap operas interruptions, but, these “heinous acts” pale in comparison to reaction when winter weather forecasts stray off the charts.

Whether it is due to the disruptions they cause or the “touchiness” of the subject in general, a missed winter weather forecast seems to take on a life of its own, and grief upon grief is piled on the forecasters.

The fact not appreciated by the general public is just how hard predicting winter weather in Alabama can be.

It is a complex process with many factors that can “throw a monkey wrench into the works” at the worst possible times.

One consideration is that there are so many variations in the types of winter weather possible, largely due to our latitude and our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and the moisture it contains.

In the Northern states it is much simpler situation, for ignoring the frigid temperature threat, snow is the primary concern, with occasional ice storms.

One thing not realized is snow is not snow is not snow. In other words there are many different types of snow. The nature of the air mass triggering the snowfall, dry or moist, dictates the moisture amount available which in turn determines the structure of the snowflakes or pellets and the effect they can have. Therefore a Western snow is different than a Midwestern, Northern or an Eastern snow. Similarly a European snow is different than Western US snow. For example French World Cup Alpine skier Jean-Claude Killy, who dominated the sport in the late 1960’s, had to spend several weeks in advance of a competition practicing and getting acquainted with the texture and quirks of Aspen Colorado snow. The snow of the Rockies was different than the snows of the Alps.

The snow types in these areas have one common factor – they are generally dry, or have low moisture content, where an Alabama snow is generally moisture rich. Because of this an Alabama snow usually borderlines on an ice storm.

That’s just snow. But, our winter weather may be rain, thunderstorms, cold rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination of two or more of these. For example, I remember one evening it was raining in Eastern Alabama; we had tornadoes touching down in Central Alabama and were receiving reports of snow in Tupelo heading towards Columbus and the Alabama border all at the same time.

So, you not only have the challenge of predicting if precipitation will occur, but, also how much, where, and what type or types will be seen.

Add to this the variables of where the fronts are located, the height of the freezing level, where the moisture pool is and the ever present question of how fast and hard these elements move toward or away from each other in this bumper car battle of the sky, and it becomes like forecasting the behavior of suds in a washing machine.

These factors are sensitive to the slightest changes in temperatures and tracks. For instance a
small change in temperature can mean the difference between snow, rain or another precipitation type. While a slight change in the low pressure track will change the areas that are expected to receive precipitation and the precipitation type. Some may get snow, ice or nothing at all.

Variations in local the microclimate, such as terrain, forestation and mountain ranges, can have a significant impact on the high and low temperatures and also the precipitation probability and expected accumulation.

Then there is the question of moisture itself. A small difference in the moisture amount will have a big difference in the accumulation of inches of snow. For example, a 1/10th of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 1 inch of snow while 4/10ths of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 4 inches of snow. For a rain forecast, this difference is not that apparent but with snowfall accumulation it is very apparent.

So with all of these variables, and some probably yet to be discovered, the fact that every now and then a forecast will go awry is not remarkable. While, the fact that the forecasts are accurate the majority of the time should be.

But, this is where the rule I call the “Ninety-nine Minus One Equals Zero Rule” comes to play. You can “get it right” 99 times in a row and it goes unnoticed and unappreciated, but, let you miss it once and that miss is what everyone remembers.

To quote Shakespeare “The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones.” – Marc Antony

No one remembers the numerous times when the snow forecast is spot on. Everyone remembers people being stranded in an unexpected winter wasteland or when doom was forecast, but nothing happened at all.

Since winter precipitation is far less common than “up North”, we are less prepared in general, both individually and as a community, so the problem is amplified.

For instance, people here don’t know how to drive in clear weather, let alone snow. Northerners laugh at Southerners inability to drive through snow, and then they try to barrel through not realizing that under that pretty fluffy inch of snow is a quarter inch thick sheet of ice, and off the road they go too.

Then you add to that that we seem to the Bread & Milk Panic Capitol of the World, (but, in reality we are far from alone, as explored in the article “Tales Of Bread & Milk” featured in the February 2017 Newsletter), and it makes for an even more muddled mess.

So if you are one of the many being tempted to tweet torment on forecasters, far and wide, many of whom weren’t paid for a month, but, stayed selflessly at their post, try practicing a little patience, understanding and dare I say, common sense, and perhaps just be glad you aren’t one of them just now.

To the forecasters who are reading this, as Bugs Bunny would say “meh, it happens”.

No one may tell you, but, we do appreciate what you do and the dedication you show and have shown.

Don’t let the naysayers get you down.

There will be warmer days.

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Mark’s Almanac

February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it, is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.

February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.

February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so the that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year has 29 days, the next of which will occur in 2020.

In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.

Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.

There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.

North Atlantic Tropical activity is at a minimum. From 1851 to 2018 there has been only one Tropical Storm to occur, 70 MPH Tropical Storm #1, which affected Florida on February 2 & 3, 1952.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 39.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to 48.6 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 10 hours 35 minutes on February 1 to 11 hours 26 minutes on February 28.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

February 1 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 5:18 PM
February 14 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 5:31 PM
February 28 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 5:43 PM

For other locations go to http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php and input the locations and dates you are interested in.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month we find Mercury passing behind the Sun, or in “Superior Conjunction”, and then he begins moving into the Western Sky in the afterglow of sunset.

Mercury will reach Perihelion or his closest approach to the Sun in his elliptical orbit on February 25, when he will be 28,537,000 miles from the Sun.

Mercury will appear half lit, or at “Dichotomy”, similar to a first quarter moon on February 26.

On 26 February, Mercury reaches his highest altitude of 18°E above the horizon in the western evening sky, also called ”Greatest Eastern Elongation” and then begins sinking lower into the Sunset.

Venus, magnitude –4.3, rises above the east-southeast horizon well before the first glimmer of dawn. Together with Jupiter, they dominate the southeast by the time dawn begins to brighten.

In a telescope Venus is dazzling white and slightly gibbous.

Mars, magnitude +0.8, in Pisces left of the Great Square of Pegasus, glows high in the southwest at nightfall and sets around 11 p.m.

Mars passes into the constellation Aries on 13 February, and the same day is a degree north of Uranus. More on this a little later.

In a telescope Mars appears as a tiny gibbous blob.

Jupiter, magnitude –1.9, in Virgo rises in the east-southeast well before the first glimmer of dawn with brilliant Venus nearby. Jupiter will be 50 times dimmer than Venus’s due mostly to Jupiter’s 7-times-greater distance from the illuminating Sun.

Jupiter rises from the dawn about four hours in advance of the sun, mid-month.

Saturn, magnitude +0.5, is low in the eastern morning sky in Sagittarius emerging from the glow of dawn. About 30 minutes before sunrise, use binoculars to look for it just above the horizon far to the lower left of Venus.

Saturn will pass just South of the Moon on February, passing with a half diameter of the Moon.

Uranus, shining at a borderline naked eye brightness of +5.8 at the Aries-Pisces border, is well up in the southwest right after dark.

Uranus is visible in binoculars if you know where to look for him. But, how do you find that magical spot?

Mars is going to help us locate him this month, as Mars will pass just South of Uranus on February 12, passing within 0°58′ of each other.

From Birmingham, the pair will become visible at around 6:05 PM as the dusk sky fades, 54° above the south-western horizon. They will then sink towards the horizon, setting 5 hours and 8 minutes after the Sun at 10:36 PM.

The pair will be a little too widely separated to fit comfortably within the field of view of a telescope, but will be visible through a pair of binoculars.

Neptune, shining at magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is very low in the west-southwest right after dark

3890 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

New Moon will occur at 9:04 AM CST or 15:04 UTC on Monday, February 4, as the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.
This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on February 4, when she will be 252,622 miles from Earth.
Full Moon will occur Tuesday, February 19 at 9:53 AM CST or 15:53 UTC.

February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore, since the heaviest snows usually fell at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on February 19, when she will be 221,681 miles from Earth.

The February sky is alit with bright stars. Orion the Hunter is overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky.

February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane.

Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness.

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The Birmingham Hamfest http://birminghamfest.org/ is now only five weeks away, Friday and Saturday March 1 & 2 at its new home at the Trussville Civic Center. For more information go to http://birminghamfest.org/

This month’s meeting will be on February 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database