Hi Everyone

Our spring tornado season is just around the corner and now is the time to review your plans and procedures for those storms to come.

Take this time brush up on your skills. Don’t wait until the sirens sound. For by then it may be too late.

In preparing, you should ask yourselves these questions:

Is my family shelter (and everyone should have one) ready?
Is my equipment, both antennae & radios working?
Are the batteries charged?
Are my communications channels still functional? Including RF, Internet & telephone resources.
Can I reliably receive weather watches and warnings?
If you are on the NWSChat, is your password up to date?
Is your training and knowledge fresh, or do you need to do a quick review?

Are you prepared both at home and at work?

In preparing, remember that keeping yourself and your family alive and intact during and after the storms is your number one priority.

Here’s hoping that your February will be peaceful and safe.

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The Woes Of Forecasting Winter Weather

“Kind of missed it didn’t they?”, “I survived Snowmageddon 2019, ha, ha, ha” “I’m gonna give Spann and Dice a piece of my mind.” “What am I going to do with 18 gallons of milk…gee thanks a lot.”

Though I love meteorology, but, right now is one of those times I’m glad I’m NOT a meteorologist. It’s bad enough to be blamed on soaked weddings, wind-blown field goals and soap operas interruptions, but, these “heinous acts” pale in comparison to reaction when winter weather forecasts stray off the charts.

Whether it is due to the disruptions they cause or the “touchiness” of the subject in general, a missed winter weather forecast seems to take on a life of its own, and grief upon grief is piled on the forecasters.

The fact not appreciated by the general public is just how hard predicting winter weather in Alabama can be.

It is a complex process with many factors that can “throw a monkey wrench into the works” at the worst possible times.

One consideration is that there are so many variations in the types of winter weather possible, largely due to our latitude and our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and the moisture it contains.

In the Northern states it is much simpler situation, for ignoring the frigid temperature threat, snow is the primary concern, with occasional ice storms.

One thing not realized is snow is not snow is not snow. In other words there are many different types of snow. The nature of the air mass triggering the snowfall, dry or moist, dictates the moisture amount available which in turn determines the structure of the snowflakes or pellets and the effect they can have. Therefore a Western snow is different than a Midwestern, Northern or an Eastern snow. Similarly a European snow is different than Western US snow. For example French World Cup Alpine skier Jean-Claude Killy, who dominated the sport in the late 1960’s, had to spend several weeks in advance of a competition practicing and getting acquainted with the texture and quirks of Aspen Colorado snow. The snow of the Rockies was different than the snows of the Alps.

The snow types in these areas have one common factor – they are generally dry, or have low moisture content, where an Alabama snow is generally moisture rich. Because of this an Alabama snow usually borderlines on an ice storm.

That’s just snow. But, our winter weather may be rain, thunderstorms, cold rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination of two or more of these. For example, I remember one evening it was raining in Eastern Alabama; we had tornadoes touching down in Central Alabama and were receiving reports of snow in Tupelo heading towards Columbus and the Alabama border all at the same time.

So, you not only have the challenge of predicting if precipitation will occur, but, also how much, where, and what type or types will be seen.

Add to this the variables of where the fronts are located, the height of the freezing level, where the moisture pool is and the ever present question of how fast and hard these elements move toward or away from each other in this bumper car battle of the sky, and it becomes like forecasting the behavior of suds in a washing machine.

These factors are sensitive to the slightest changes in temperatures and tracks. For instance a
small change in temperature can mean the difference between snow, rain or another precipitation type. While a slight change in the low pressure track will change the areas that are expected to receive precipitation and the precipitation type. Some may get snow, ice or nothing at all.

Variations in local the microclimate, such as terrain, forestation and mountain ranges, can have a significant impact on the high and low temperatures and also the precipitation probability and expected accumulation.

Then there is the question of moisture itself. A small difference in the moisture amount will have a big difference in the accumulation of inches of snow. For example, a 1/10th of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 1 inch of snow while 4/10ths of an inch of liquid equivalent can produce 4 inches of snow. For a rain forecast, this difference is not that apparent but with snowfall accumulation it is very apparent.

So with all of these variables, and some probably yet to be discovered, the fact that every now and then a forecast will go awry is not remarkable. While, the fact that the forecasts are accurate the majority of the time should be.

But, this is where the rule I call the “Ninety-nine Minus One Equals Zero Rule” comes to play. You can “get it right” 99 times in a row and it goes unnoticed and unappreciated, but, let you miss it once and that miss is what everyone remembers.

To quote Shakespeare “The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones.” – Marc Antony

No one remembers the numerous times when the snow forecast is spot on. Everyone remembers people being stranded in an unexpected winter wasteland or when doom was forecast, but nothing happened at all.

Since winter precipitation is far less common than “up North”, we are less prepared in general, both individually and as a community, so the problem is amplified.

For instance, people here don’t know how to drive in clear weather, let alone snow. Northerners laugh at Southerners inability to drive through snow, and then they try to barrel through not realizing that under that pretty fluffy inch of snow is a quarter inch thick sheet of ice, and off the road they go too.

Then you add to that that we seem to the Bread & Milk Panic Capitol of the World, (but, in reality we are far from alone, as explored in the article “Tales Of Bread & Milk” featured in the February 2017 Newsletter), and it makes for an even more muddled mess.

So if you are one of the many being tempted to tweet torment on forecasters, far and wide, many of whom weren’t paid for a month, but, stayed selflessly at their post, try practicing a little patience, understanding and dare I say, common sense, and perhaps just be glad you aren’t one of them just now.

To the forecasters who are reading this, as Bugs Bunny would say “meh, it happens”.

No one may tell you, but, we do appreciate what you do and the dedication you show and have shown.

Don’t let the naysayers get you down.

There will be warmer days.

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Mark’s Almanac

February, or Februarius, as the Romans called it, is named after the Latin term februum, which means “purification”. Ancient Rome celebrated the Februa purification ritual on February 15, which was Full Moon on the old lunar based Latin calendar.

February was not originally included in the Roman calendar, which began in March, but was added, along with January by Numa Pompilius around 713 BC, and until 450 BC was considered the last month of the year.

February was originally 29 days long, but one day was taken and added to August, so the that Emperor Augustus’s month would be equal to Julius Caesar’s month of July. Now only Leap Year has 29 days, the next of which will occur in 2020.

In the Southern Hemisphere February is the equivalent of August. But, for us, February is a cold month with more snow falling in February than in any other month.

Statistically speaking, there is a 70% chance of snow flurries, and a 57% chance of snow up to one inch. There is a 13% chance of over one inch, and a 3% chance of 4 inches or more.

There is hope on the horizon though, as the worst of winter weather is usually over by February 15.

North Atlantic Tropical activity is at a minimum. From 1851 to 2018 there has been only one Tropical Storm to occur, 70 MPH Tropical Storm #1, which affected Florida on February 2 & 3, 1952.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon rapidly increases from 39.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to 48.6 degrees at the end. Daylight increases from 10 hours 35 minutes on February 1 to 11 hours 26 minutes on February 28.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

February 1 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 5:18 PM
February 14 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 5:31 PM
February 28 Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 5:43 PM

For other locations go to http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php and input the locations and dates you are interested in.

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month we find Mercury passing behind the Sun, or in “Superior Conjunction”, and then he begins moving into the Western Sky in the afterglow of sunset.

Mercury will reach Perihelion or his closest approach to the Sun in his elliptical orbit on February 25, when he will be 28,537,000 miles from the Sun.

Mercury will appear half lit, or at “Dichotomy”, similar to a first quarter moon on February 26.

On 26 February, Mercury reaches his highest altitude of 18°E above the horizon in the western evening sky, also called ”Greatest Eastern Elongation” and then begins sinking lower into the Sunset.

Venus, magnitude –4.3, rises above the east-southeast horizon well before the first glimmer of dawn. Together with Jupiter, they dominate the southeast by the time dawn begins to brighten.

In a telescope Venus is dazzling white and slightly gibbous.

Mars, magnitude +0.8, in Pisces left of the Great Square of Pegasus, glows high in the southwest at nightfall and sets around 11 p.m.

Mars passes into the constellation Aries on 13 February, and the same day is a degree north of Uranus. More on this a little later.

In a telescope Mars appears as a tiny gibbous blob.

Jupiter, magnitude –1.9, in Virgo rises in the east-southeast well before the first glimmer of dawn with brilliant Venus nearby. Jupiter will be 50 times dimmer than Venus’s due mostly to Jupiter’s 7-times-greater distance from the illuminating Sun.

Jupiter rises from the dawn about four hours in advance of the sun, mid-month.

Saturn, magnitude +0.5, is low in the eastern morning sky in Sagittarius emerging from the glow of dawn. About 30 minutes before sunrise, use binoculars to look for it just above the horizon far to the lower left of Venus.

Saturn will pass just South of the Moon on February, passing with a half diameter of the Moon.

Uranus, shining at a borderline naked eye brightness of +5.8 at the Aries-Pisces border, is well up in the southwest right after dark.

Uranus is visible in binoculars if you know where to look for him. But, how do you find that magical spot?

Mars is going to help us locate him this month, as Mars will pass just South of Uranus on February 12, passing within 0°58′ of each other.

From Birmingham, the pair will become visible at around 6:05 PM as the dusk sky fades, 54° above the south-western horizon. They will then sink towards the horizon, setting 5 hours and 8 minutes after the Sun at 10:36 PM.

The pair will be a little too widely separated to fit comfortably within the field of view of a telescope, but will be visible through a pair of binoculars.

Neptune, shining at magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius, is very low in the west-southwest right after dark

3890 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of January 24, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

New Moon will occur at 9:04 AM CST or 15:04 UTC on Monday, February 4, as the Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky.
This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on February 4, when she will be 252,622 miles from Earth.
Full Moon will occur Tuesday, February 19 at 9:53 AM CST or 15:53 UTC.

February’s Full Moon is “Full Snow Moon” in Native American folklore, since the heaviest snows usually fell at this time of year. Since the harsh weather made hunting difficult, some tribes called it “Full Hunger Moon”.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on February 19, when she will be 221,681 miles from Earth.

The February sky is alit with bright stars. Orion the Hunter is overhead, along with his faithful hunting dogs, Canis Major & Canis Minor, the Large & Lesser Dogs. In Canis Major is the blue star Sirius, The Dog Star, which 8.6 light years away, is the brightest star in the night sky.

February and March are the best times of the year for seeing the Zodiacal Light. In the evening away from city lights and after twilight has faded you might see a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow near the sunset point. This is Zodiacal Light, which is formed by the sunlight reflecting off millions of minute particles of cosmic dust aligned with the Earth’s orbital plane.

Another sight, much more common is the Earth Shadow. At sunset, on very clear days, as the sun goes farther below the horizon, you will see what appears to be a layer of gray cloud rising along the eastern horizon. This is actually the silhouette of the earth’s shadow being cast against darkening sky, sometimes with a pinkish glow along the edge. It fades as twilight fades into darkness.

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The Birmingham Hamfest http://birminghamfest.org/ is now only five weeks away, Friday and Saturday March 1 & 2 at its new home at the Trussville Civic Center. For more information go to http://birminghamfest.org/

This month’s meeting will be on February 12 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone,

I hope you all had a good Christmas and have a Happy New Year. Santa was good to me and I hope he was to you also.

2018 was an active year for ALERT with new members and new opportunities. I’m looking forward to 2019 and seeing what adventures the New Year will bring.

A brief rundown of the regular ALERT schedule for the first seven months is:

January 8 Regular Meeting
February 12 Regular Meeting
March 1 & 2 Birmingham Hamfest / ALERT & NWS table & Skywarn Forum at the
Trussville Civic Center
March 12 Regular Meeting / Nominating Committee Formed
April 9 Regular Meeting / Nominating Committee Report
May 14 Regular Meeting / ALERT Elections
June 11 Regular Meeting
July 9 Regular Meeting / New Officers Take Office / Dues Due $$$

ALERT appreciates your efforts and participation in responding to callouts, serving in the various ALERT offices, and for supporting our organization, both on and off the air.

YOUR ALERT & The NWS thanks you!

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Proposed Amendment 7

To all Operational and Supporting ALERT Members,

The following proposed Amendment to the ALERT Bylaws was passed unanimously by
the ALERT Board of Directors and is presented for your consideration.

The membership at large will vote on this Amendment at our next regular meeting on January 8.

The Amendment is as follows:

Amendment 7

ARTICLE III

Section 1.
Membership in ALERT is available to all eligible according to the ALERT Bylaws, without regard to race, creed, color, sex, sexual orientation, national origin, disability or any other legally protected status of the applicant.

Section 2.
Those wishing to join ALERT may do so by submitting a completed membership application, with appropriate dues to the ALERT Membership Officer.

Section 3.
The application shall then be presented to the membership at the next regular meeting for approval. Applicants will become a member upon approval of a majority of the voting membership present at the meeting.

Section 4.
If there are dissenting votes, the vote will be tabled and the application and objections will be reviewed by the Board of Directors in executive session, and based upon the results of this review, the application shall either be summarily approved or disapproved by the Board of Directors.

. . . .

This Amendment clarifies the membership process and provides for certain protections for both
ALERT and for prospective members wishing to join ALERT.

When considering this Amendment we looked at the membership processes of several of our sister organizations to help guide us and maintain a “commonality” in line with other kindred organizations. Organizations which we looked at included the Birmingham, Shelby County, Tuscaloosa County, Montgomery and Blount County Amateur Radio Clubs. The Amendment is a melding of these concepts.

Over the years the process of informally voting members into the organization has become a custom, though not specifically mentioned in the bylaws or in any way binding. This Amendment helps make things “official”.

This Amendment provides protection for ALERT in the extremely rare case of someone of “questionable character or reputation” attempting to join ALERT. Examples of this being someone who has been banned from other organizations due to their disruptive behavior, criminal activity, or someone unable to discuss things in a civil manner, without becoming violent, “getting in people’s faces” or invading one’s personal space.

Debate is certainly welcome, and I’ve seen some good ones in the past, but, they were always within the bounds of gentlemanly decorum.

In the British Parliament the Labour Party sets on one side of the chamber and the Conservative or Tory Party sit on the other. They can yell and call each other anything but a child of God to their hearts content as long as they don’t step over two red lines running the length of the chamber. The red lines are exactly two sword lengths apart. This dates back to a time when this was a prudent precaution.

We’ve never had to paint lines on the conference room floor at the NWS, and I feel confident that it is not in our future.

I would think being habitually under the influence at meetings or being an obvious lunatic would be sufficient grounds for denial.

Examples of the latter being talking to invisible “friends”, discussing blowing up people, places and things, or being given to suddenly howling and snapping for unexplained reasons, which are circumstances we might wish to avoid.

Cases for actually banning someone from membership would be extremely rare. “I just don’t like em”, “he’s a creep, he called me a no-code weather whacko on 88”, “she has Chihuahuas, that ought to tell you something about her”, or “I heard a rumor from my cousin’s uncle Joe that his aunt Flo says he’s been a sot ever since she divorced him in 1982 for running around with that floozy Wilma down at the truck stop” would not be sufficient reasons for denial.

In other words, it has to be an exceedingly good reason.

An actual threat to physical, organizational or facility security would be a valid reason, as would the recommendations and wishes of the NWS.

Nothing specific has triggered this Amendment. We are merely updating our procedures to
reflect 21st century standards, circumstances and situations.

We want, need and welcome new members.

Thank you for your consideration.

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WINTER DRIVING

With the beauty of winter comes the storms of bad winter and the cold weather that follows. Many fear the effects of the cold blustery days, but with a little preparation and some easily learned skills our chances of avoiding common mishaps and staying safe greatly increase in our favor.

Our primary means of transportation is our vehicles. One common trick of the trade you can use is first what the British military calls “first parade check.”

This involves approaching the vehicle at a 45 degree angle so each wheel can be seen. You are looking for anything under or by the tires or anything hanging down like the exhaust or a brake cable.

Are there any spots on the ground telling you that you might have a leak? If so, is it antifreeze, oil or brake fluid?

What condition are your tires in? One of the things my Dad taught me was to always carry jumper cables, a tire pressure gauge and an air pump in the car. Check the air pressure and compare it to the chart usually pasted by the driver’s side door or in the cars owner’s manual. Look for cuts, bulges, threads and the tread depth or lack thereof. Make sure you have a jack and spare or emergency tire and know how to change a tire.

Also, make sure you have covers on your tire stems. Water can get into them, freeze and deflate your tires.

Next lift the hood and check all of the fluid levels including oil, brake fluid, windshield washer fluid and radiator fluid. If you have room in your car or truck carrying an extra supply of these is a good precaution.

Next start the engine and look for any signs of leaks, smoke or unusual noises. A loose fan belt will squeak, a high pitched whistle is a vacuum line and a blown exhaust system will sound like a drag racer.

With the engine running check all the gauges and look for warning lights and anything out of the ordinary. When was your last oil change, by the way?

Always keep the vehicle gas tank filled up. This is smart in any season, as if an emergency occurs and you have to move fast, whether to the Emergency Room or out of town, trying to find an open gas station at 3 AM may not be as easy as you think. Also if a disaster has struck and there is no power, gas pumps will not work.

I will note that there is an inner city counter theory which advocates keeping a bare minimum of fuel so that if your car is stolen it can’t go very far. But, I prefer the former rule rather than the latter.

In addition to being ready for an emergency trip, a full tank helps dilute deposits in the fuel tank that could clog filters and cause starting problems.

Gas mileage will normally be worse during the winter, due to warming up the car, traffic delays and poor traction.

Running the car to warm it up is popular, but, could be temptation for those wanting a “free set of wheels”. So either have a spare key and lock the car or just keep a very obvious eye out.

Have a windshield scraper and when you use it be sure to hit all of the windows and don’t just make a “port hole” to peek out of. You want and need maximum visibility.

Make sure the wipers are in good shape and you have windshield wiper fluid. Don’t turn the windshield wipers on if they are frozen to the windshields as it can destroy the blades. Wait until the glass is defrosted.

Batteries, even new ones, have a hard time in cold weather as there are extra demands on it due to running the heater, defroster and the increased use of headlights. Short trips can drain a battery as it doesn’t have sufficient time to recharge.

Finally, check all of your lights, including the turn signals, which are increasingly unused, as people seem to be adopting ESP instead.

Do You Have A “GHK” or “Get Home Kit”?

A “Get Home Kit” is a collection on items you keep in your car to help you get home in case of an emergency, remembering that emergencies, as we are increasingly seeing, come in all shapes and sizes.

The first part of the kit deals directly with the car’s health. In my experience, most car emergencies (excluding accidents) usually involve the tires, battery or cooling system. Anything beyond this, I’ll need a tow truck.

My kit contains the following:

For flats I have an air compressor, a tire repair kit, and a can of Fix-a-flat.

The compressor is handy for slow leaks, or as a temporary fix to get you to a tire shop or to a safer location. Just “pump that puppy up” and go on your way. It also cures the “my spare was flat” problem. Usually the spare hasn’t been damaged, it’s air has just leakes out over months or years.

Sometimes you can plug a puncture with a tire repair kit, so it is included. You basically ream the hole out with the tool supplied, apply a plug with epoxy, inflate the tire and drive on.

If there is a nail in the tire, I know not to pull it out & I also know that tire sidewall damage is not repairable.

Tire mechanics I am told hate Fix-A-Flat, but, since they aren’t the ones stranded on the side of the road, you are, carry a can.

For battery failure, either my own, or to help someone, I have jumper cables, and a battery terminal cleaning kit. (I have the silver one that looks like a giant suppository).

Other items include:

A Tool Kit, which includes a hammer, screw drivers and wrenches. If you can only carry one wrench, make sure it is one that will fit the battery terminals.
Flares
A reflective vest, rain poncho and cap or hat
Antifreeze, brake and transmission fluid
A charged cellphone & a power cord to recharge it.
GPS
AAA Card
Flashlight, with spare batteries
Cash in small bills. Some have a false sense of security having a hidden $100 bill. This idea is a mistake. For if you can’t usually make change for a $100 bill, you shouldn’t assume anyone else can either.

The second half of my kit is what I consider a “minimal survival kit”, which is largely based on a concept called “the 5 & 10 C’s Of Survivability”, developed by Dave Canterbury, of “The Pathfinder School” in Jackson Ohio.

The fundamental idea is that there are vital objects carried and used by explorers, pioneers and indigenous tribes, throughout history from the Ice Age to today which cannot be easily made in the field, either due to lack of resources or a requirement for specialized knowledge of how to manufacture them or specialized equipment one would normally not carry. Keeping these items on hand dramatically improves your survivability.

For example, consider a knife. How easily could you forge one in the field? Or can you make rope whenever you need it?

So with these thoughts in mind let’s detail the “C’s”, which you should have.

The 5 C’s of Survivability

COVERING

For preventing hypothermia or hyperthermia, your first line of defense is to dress appropriately for the weather expected.

In the car I have a hoodie, a rain jacket, an umbrella, a couple of fleece blankets, a tarp, which can be used as a ground cover or quickie shelter, and a Mylar “space blanket”. Cheap, scratchy wool blankets are available at Harbor Freight. Wool has the quality in that it will retain 80% of its insulative value even when wet.

Remember that you can die within three hours if you do not protect your body core temperature. And, it doesn’t need to be freezing to do so. Just get wet in 40 degree weather, and you will be in serious trouble.

CONTAINER

I carry two small water bottles and a larger one as reserve, and a metal cup to use for filtering and purifying water. I can do so by either by boiling or by treating water chemically with purification tablets.

CUTTING TOOL

From cutting boxes to working with wood & cordage a knife is indispensable.

I always carry a decent inexpensive folding knife, which since I didn’t sink a fortune into, I’m not afraid to work with it. I might be hesitant to use it if it were a higher priced one. I didn’t say abuse it, for I believe in “taking care of the equipment that will take care of you”.

I do have larger and better ones I reserve for hiking and camping.

This is not a “Tarzan” or “Rambo” knife, as the blade is only three inches long. But, that’s long enough, for you will find a larger blade is too unwieldy for fine work & carrying a 19 inch Bowie knife strapped on can make the police become just a little suspicious.

COMBUSTION

For lighting candles, pilot lights or campfires, to quote Major Mykel Hawke, author of “Hawke’s Green Beret Survival Manual”, “just carry a doggone stinkin lighter”.

Though I don’t smoke, I always carry a Zippo & Bic lighter, which I never tell folk about, as people are great to buy the “coffin nails”, but, somehow always forget that they will need a way to “blaze up”. I have found that lighters, once discovered and borrowed, except for the big bulky 10 inch ones, will be lost by the end of the day.

Why two, you may ask? Because of something called the “two is one and one is none” rule. If you have only one lighter and lose or break it, you are without options. If you have two, you have one to fall back on.

Zippos are wind proof, nearly water proof and has survived 5 wars and since Clint Eastwood used
them in Gran Torino and Dirty Harry, you know they are totally macho and cool.

The Zippo’s only fault is fuel volatility. The fuel will evaporate whether you use it or not. How quickly depends on how often it is used and ambient humidity. I find the fuel lasts usually two weeks maximum. So I am careful to keep it fueled.

The backup is the Bic, which has much longer shelf life, but, is cold sensitive and doesn’t like to get wet. Also, if stored in a pocket and something in the pocket presses the fuel lever, all your fuel will leak out without you knowing it.

It is possible to ignite a fire with an empty Bic, as I have done so, but, it is not easy.

Also, in my kit I carry a backup magnesium bar with a Ferrocerium rod and some UCO “Stormproof Matches”. They have a much larger phosphor head as a regular match. They will burn like a torch for 15 seconds and if dowsed, if quickly blown on, they will reignite.

Firecraft is more than just striking a match & you have a warm fire. It requires the correct material, in the correct order using the correct techniques. Take the time to familiarize yourself with this art.

CORDAGE

For securing items & strengthening items, carry paracord, rope, twine, etc. This helps facilitate building shelters & securing cargo and equipment. 550 and 1100 paracord is the recommended standard.

The other 5 C’s of Survivability

These are the modern items to enhance survivability, and include:

CANDELING

Carry a good flashlight or two, along with extra batteries. This includes a LED headlamp for hands free operation.

COTTON BANDANA

Any cotton material, 3×3 feet, can be used for a head cover, cleaning, filtering water, or used as a bandage or a sling. A thin cotton shemagh is surprisingly warm. Just try not to look like a terrorist if you use one.

COMPASS

Carry a good quality compass for navigation and learn how to use it. Remember that a GPS can have battery failure, have “rain outages” and that the satellites, which are constantly shuffling around in a low Earth orbit, can travel out of range. However a compass is a reliable tool.

In choosing a compass, look at several and test them. If they won’t quickly and correctly point to North in Walmart, they won’t work in the field either.

Use the compass as your primary navigation tool, backed up by the GPS.

Google maps and other apps usually die as soon as the cell signal is lost, and definitely if the battery dies and IPhone compasses can be wildly inaccurate.

Also, learn the forgotten art of how to use a map.

CARGO TAPE

Also known as Duct tape, it can be used for repairs, making things, bandaging things and thousands of other uses. It can be used as a very short term candle and the adhesive is antiseptic.

CANVAS NEEDLE

While it is suggested that you carry a heavy duty canvas needle for repairs, sewing, and other uses, I carry a miniature sewing kit, with a variety of needles, for sewing clothing or if I had to, for sewing ME.

To these 10 C’s I would add:

COMMUNICATIONS & SIGNALLING

Carry and keep a charged handie-talkie & cellphone. Also, have a way to signal rescuers, audibly and visually. My kit includes a 130 decibel Storm World Whistle and a signal mirror.

With cellphones if you seem to have no signal or connectivity, try texting, for low these low bandwidth signals often can worm their way through crowded circuits while voice communications is impossible.

Have a 2 meter rig in your car. I also have a CB in the SUV.

A whistle has a much greater range than a human voice, and it is said that a signal mirror is credited with 80% of rescues in wilderness search and rescue scenarios.

A few other items I’ll throw in are a small first aid kit, an extra pair of glasses, small binoculars, sun glasses and a backpack to carry this all in should I have to hike home.

This may sound like a lot, but it actually can fit in a small box.

This covers everything from mechanical breakdowns to having “hole up” in or near your car, or having to abandon the car and hike into your neighborhood, even should the roads become impassable, or landmarks left unrecognizable by a disaster.

Remembering that we spend over a third of our lives AWAY from home, this idea is a practical one.

Finally, my preparedness philosophy is as follows: I believe that we should be a like Noah, (especially since we work for NOAA), and, be in a state of preparedness. But, then after having prepared, we should go about our lives, have some fun and live life. Not being nutty or weird, but just knowledgeable and prepared.

We can’t prevent disasters from happening. But, we can help reduce the impact they have on our little corner of the world.

“A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.” – Proverbs 22:3

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Mark’s Almanac

January is named for the Roman god Janus, the god of gates and doors, and so openings and beginnings.

January receives more sunlight than December, but the equilibrium between incoming solar heat and the heat radiated into space by the northern snowfields does not peak until late January and early February, six weeks after winter solstice. So the weather continues to cool, with January 8 – 20 being the coldest part of the year.

Typically in January there is a 53% chance of up to one inch of snow & a 25% chance of over one inch of snow.

With the exception of the southern tip of Nova Scotia, all of Canada and roughly one half of the Continental US, or “CONUS”, are now covered with snow. Canada’s Hudson’s Bay is frozen, as is the ocean water between Baffin Island and Greenland.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif

Birmingham January climatology per Intellicast is monthly rainfall 5.45” inches and snowfall 0.7”. Average high temperature is 53 degrees and the average low 32 degrees. Record high of 81 degrees occurred in 1941 and a record low of -6 degrees in 1985.

Barometric pressure is highest in January.

Days grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily increases from 33.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to 39.2 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 9 hours 59 minutes on January 1 to 10 hours 33 minutes on January 31.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

January 1 Sunrise 6:52 AM Sunset 4:50 PM
January 15 Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 5:02 PM
January 31 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 5:17 PM

Looking skyward, Mercury, magnitude –0.4, is getting lower in the dawn. Look for it just above the southeast horizon about 40 minutes before sunrise. It’s lower left of brighter Jupiter, which in turn is lower left of even brighter Venus. Mercury and Jupiter move farther apart every day.

Mercury will sink below the horizon by mid-month and will reach Aphelion or his farthest distance from the Sun of 43,689,000 miles on January 12.

He will pass behind the Sun on January 29.

Brilliant Venus, magnitude –4.7, in Virgo, rises as an eerie “UFO” above the east-southeast horizon more than two hours before the first light of dawn. By the time dawn arrives, Venus is the brilliant “Morning Star” dominating the southeast. In a telescope, Venus is almost half sunlit.

The planet Venus reaches greatest eastern elongation of 47 degrees from the Sun. This is the best time to view Venus since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the morning sky. Look for the bright planet in the eastern sky before sunrise.

How long can you track Venus in the morning sky into the day?

A conjunction, or close approach of Venus and Jupiter will be visible on January 22. The two bright planets will be visible within 2.4 degrees of each other in the early morning sky. Look for this impressive sight in the east just before sunrise.

Venus will pass exceedingly close, within 0.1 degrees, South of the Moon on January 31.

Earth, magnitude -4.0, in Sagittarius, as viewed from the Sun, will be at her closest approach to the Sun, or Perihelion at 11:19 PM CST on January 2. The distance from the Sun’s center to Earth’s center will be 91,403,554 miles.

Mars, magnitude +0.4, in Pisces, shines highest in the south in late twilight and sets by 11 or so. In a telescope he is a small gibbous disk.

Jupiter, magnitude –1.8, in Ophiuchus, shines in the east during dawn, lower left of brighter Venus.
Look for Mercury down to Jupiter’s lower left. Look closer to Jupiter’s lower right for orange Antares.

Saturn is hidden behind the glare of the Sun and will pass behind the Sun on January 1.

Uranus, magnitude 5.8, at the Aries-Pisces border, is highest in the south shortly after dark.

Neptune, magnitude 7.9, in Aquarius, is lower in the southwest right after dark.

Ultima Thule is a distant object in Sagittarius, 1 billion miles past Pluto, which was discovered by the Hubble Space Telescope in 2014.

NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft, which passed Jupiter in 2007 and Pluto in 2015, will perform a historic flyby of Ultima Thule on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day — the farthest planetary flyby in human history.

New Horizons will reach the Ultima Thule at 11:33 PM CST on December 31, passing within 2175 miles of the mysterious object, which is roughly 1⁄60 the diameter of Pluto and 6 light hours from Earth.

At 10:30 AM CST, January 1, NASA will hold a press briefing to show off whatever images and information the spacecraft has managed to send back of the irregularly shaped object.

The Quadrantid Meteor Shower will occur January 3 & 4. This is an above average shower producing
between 40 to 100 meteors per hour radiating from the constellation Bootes, in the area near the end of the handle of the Big Dipper and the head of Draco the Dragon.

This shower is a quirky shower in that its particle stream is very narrow. Therefore, the peak time is only a couple of hours, and that peak varies each year. According the International Meteor Association the peak will occur at 8PM CDT on January 3, which will put the stream close to the, if not below the northeast horizon. But, as will all things astronomical, the timing may slip, so one should keep looking through the night, and even if the radiant point is below the horizon, they will still be zipping overhead and will appear longer.

The moon will be a thin crescent and should not interfere with what could be a good show this year.

This shower is believed to be produced by dust grains from burnt out comet 2003 EH1, which may also be the remainder of comet c/1490 Y1, which was lost to history after a prominent meteor shower
was observed in 1490, possibly due to the breakup of the comet.

The Quadrantid meteors take their name from an obsolete constellation, Quadrans Muralis, found in early 19th-century star atlases between Draco, Hercules, and Bootes.

In the 1800’s astronomers were naming and renaming constellations, often “stealing stars” from existing constellations, and naming them for whatever, or whoever suited them. Quadrans Muralis was removed, along with a few other constellations, from crowded sky maps in 1922 when the International Astronomical Union adopted the modern list of 88 officially-recognized constellations.

The Quadrantids Shower, were “re-zoned” to Bootes after Quadrans Muralis disappeared, but kept their name possibly because another shower was already widely-known to meteor watchers as the “Bootids”, which peaks in June.

New Moon will occur January 5 at 7:28 CST or 1:28 UTC January 6. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

There will be a Partial Solar Eclipse on January 6. A partial solar eclipse occurs when the Moon covers only a part of the Sun, sometimes resembling a bite taken out of a cookie. A partial solar eclipse can only be safely observed with a special solar filter or by looking at the Sun’s reflection. The partial eclipse will be visible in parts of eastern Asia and the northern Pacific Ocean. It will be best seen from northeastern Russia with 62% coverage.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on January 8, when she will be 252349 miles from Earth.

January’s Full Moon is “Wolf Moon” in Native American folklore. Coincidentally, January was called “Wulf-Monath” or “Wolf Month” by the Saxons. So called because this full Moon appeared when wolves howled in hunger outside the villages. It has also been called “Old Moon” and “Moon After Yule”.

Full Moon will occur Sunday January 20, 11:16 PM CST or 5:16 UTC January 21.

This is the first of three Supermoons for 2019. The Moon will be at its closest approach to the Earth and may look slightly larger and brighter than usual.

A Total Lunar Eclipse, an eclipse occurring when the Moon passes completely through the Earth’s dark shadow or umbra will occur during this Supermoon on January 20 CST. The Moon will gradually get darker and then take on a rusty or blood red color. The eclipse will be visible throughout most of North America, South America, the eastern Pacific Ocean, western Atlantic Ocean, extreme western Europe, and extreme western Africa.

Timing for Birmingham is as follows:

Penumbral Eclipse begins at 8:36:29 PM January 20
Partial Eclipse begins at 9:33:54 PM January 20
Total Full Eclipse begins at 10:41:17 PM January 20
Maximum Eclipse at 11:12:14 PM January 20
Total Eclipse ends at 11:43:15 PM January 20
Partial Eclipse ends at 12:50:39 PM January 21
Penumbral Eclipse ends at 1:48:02 PM January 21

The total duration of the eclipse is 5 hours, 12 minutes.
The total duration of the partial phases is 2 hours, 15 minutes.
The duration of the full eclipse is 1 hour, 2 minutes.

I expect social media to go into overdrive about the Wolf/Blood/Supermoon and all of its dire prophetic implications.

The Lunar magnitude will drop from -12.6 pre eclipse to 1.195 at totality or maximum eclipse.

At 7:58 AM January 21 the Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth, when she will be 222,044 miles from Earth.

3869 planets have been confirmed beyond our star system as of December 13, 2018, per NASA’s
Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

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This month’s meeting will be on January 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
Weather Resource Database

Hi Everyone,

As we approach the Christmas Season we see the kaleidoscope of fall colors as the world transforms around us. Whether it is due to us having more moisture than last year, the Fall storms having not knocked down the leaves or perhaps it’s just my imagination, this year’s colors seem more vivid than they have been in recent years past.

Make sure to enjoy the colors while they last, for soon they will be but a fleeting memory as the landscape goes into hibernation. Make sure to make some good memories that last!

One memory you can make is your memory of attending the ALERT Christmas Party which will occur Tuesday December 11th at 7PM during our regular meeting time, following our Fall Board of Directors which will be at 6PM.

There will be food, non-alcoholic drinks, desserts and goodies. Come have Christmas dinner with your ALERT family!

We hope to see you there!

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Emergency Contact Information Form

The following form was originally created for outdoor recreational use, for someone hunting, hiking or camping to leave with a trusted contact person, whether a friend, Park Ranger or other authority to let them know where you are going, when you should return and any other pertinent information.

It is was written with the knowledge that no one will ever be looking for you if no one knows you are lost or overdue to begin with.

I remember my young “I’m grown, I don’t need to tell folk where I’m going” days. But, after I actually DID grow up I realized what a dumb attitude that was to have.

This form can be copied and pasted into a Word document and then easily modified for individual uses and needs and is designed to provide critical information to rescuers and first responders.

I encourage everyone to make it their own, modify it to suit you and your family’s needs and keep it with your vital records and with a trusted contact person.

It could save your life some day.

Emergency Contact Information

Name: ___________________________________________________

SEX: (M/F) Height: _______________ Weight: _______________ Age: _______________

Ethnicity: _____________ Hair Color: __________ Eye Color: _________ Blood Type: _______

Known Allergies: ______________________________________________________________________

Known Medications: ____________________________________________________________________

Health Issues: _________________________________________________________________________

Distinguishing Marks: ___________________________________________________________________

Known Languages: _____________________________________________________________________

CONTACTS:
Telephone (Home) ___________________________ Telephone (Other) __________________________

Spouse, Next Of Kin or Primary Contact: ____________________

Telephone: _____________________ E-Mail: _______________________________

Telephone: _____________________ E-Mail: _______________________________

*Destination Details: _____________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________

Expected Arrival Date: ______________ Expected Arrival Time: _____________

Expected Return Date: ______________ Expected Return Time: _____________

Local Police Telephone: _____________________ Park / Other Services: ______________________

Local Rescue Services: ______________________ Other / Misc: ______________________________

<ATTACH A PHOTO>

When including the “NAME”, also include the “nickname” or whatever name they are commonly called. If they are named “Leonard” but have been called “Crawdad” since age five note this on the form, as this may evoke a response when calling them by their “proper name” may not.

This is especially true in the cases of children.

According to survival and search and rescue expert J Wayne Fears one problem rescuers have encountered with children is that they have been taught all their lives (and rightly so) “don’t talk to strangers, even if they call your name.” So there have been cases where rescuers walked right past a lost child who was hiding in the bushes who heard strangers calling their names, in this case rescuers, but, were afraid to say anything.

Another somewhat related problem was with adults who were lost and wanting to be found, but, started thinking too much about the grief they were going to have to deal with at work and at home for “having gotten themselves lost” and so they would hide from their rescuers.

As to “HIEGHT”, “WIEGHT”, and “AGE” be honest. In my mind’s eye I am a tall, buff, young clone of Tom Sellick, but, the flabby old wrinkled body I see in the mirror tells a slightly different tale.

The rest of the information is self-explanatory, and in any case as I say you can modify this in any way you choose.

Finally, when it comes to the photograph to attach, use a current one that actually looks like you look.

Leave the photo shopped “Glam shots” out. Now I didn’t say use one that makes you look like a gargoyle, like the DMV does, unless of course you actually do look like a gargoyle.

Just keep it realistic where you actually look like your Wanted poster.

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Mark’s Almanac

December was the tenth Roman Month, from whence it gets its name, “decem” meaning “ten”. Among many Native American tribes it was called “the Moon of Clacking Rocks”, as it was the time when they prepared and manufactured stone tools, implements and weapons, since the growing season was over, and bad weather prevented them from hunting.

December is the cloudiest month of the year, with only 40 to 60% of possible sunshine poking through the clouds. It is also the stormiest month of the year for the Continental US & the Gulf of Mexico. By “stormy” meaning large-scale storms, not necessarily the tornadic storms that they bring, even though we are still in our Second Tornado Season.

A region of heavy rainfall usually forms from Texas to Northwest Florida to Tennessee and Arkansas. Cold waves bringing rain, snow, ice and occasionally tornadoes, sweep across the region.

Average precipitation in Birmingham is 4.47” of rainfall and 0.1” of snowfall.

December can be cloudy and cold, and, then it can swing into spring like warmth, luring plants to bloom early, only to have the frosts and freezes return and the plants are “nipped in the bud”.

Hurricane season is now “officially” over, however Mother Nature sometimes throws a surprise in to make life interesting.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 17 Tropical Storms and from 1822 to 2017 there have been 8 Category 1 hurricanes, but, none have ever struck the United States.

Two notable December hurricanes are:

Hurricane Alice of 1954, which is the only known Atlantic hurricane to span two calendar years and one of only two named Atlantic tropical cyclones, along with Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005, to do so.

Alice developed on December 30, 1954 from a trough of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean in an area of unusually favorable conditions. The storm moved southwestward and gradually strengthened to reach hurricane status. After passing through the Leeward Islands on January 2, 1955, Alice reached peak winds of 90 mph before encountering cold air and turning to the southeast. It dissipated on January 6 over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

The last December hurricane to occur was Hurricane Epsilon during the 2005 season, the year in which we ran out of hurricane names. The year also featured Tropical Storm Zeta, the latest forming Tropical Storm which formed on December 30, 2005 and lasted until January 7, 2006.

Days continue to grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 34.6 degrees at the beginning of the month to 33.0 degrees at Winter Solstice on December 21 and then the angle begins to lift reaching 33.4 degrees on New Year’s Eve,

Daylight decreases from 10 hours 6 minutes on December 1 to 9 hours 56 minutes at Winter Solstice and then increases to 9 hours 58 minutes on December 31

Sunrise and Sunset times for Birmingham are:

December 1 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 4:39 PM
December 15 Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 4:41 PM
December 21 Sunrise 6:47 AM Sunset 4:44 PM
December 31 Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 4:50 PM

The Average High & Low Temperatures are:

December 1 High 60 degrees Low 38 degrees
December 15 High 56 degrees Low 35 degrees
December 31 High 53 degrees Low 33 degrees

Record High 80 degrees in 1951
Record Low 1 degree in 1962 & 1989

Looking towards the sky, at the beginning of the month Mercury is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise. He then begins emerging into the eastern sky and reaches his highest point above the horizon or “Greatest Western Elongation” on December 15, when he will be 21.3 degrees above the horizon.

Look for the planet low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

On December 21 he will be sitting side by side with Jupiter.

Venus, magnitude -4.7, in Virgo near the star Spica, rises as an eerie “UFO” above the east-southeast horizon a good two hours before the first light of dawn. As dawn arrives, Venus is the brilliant “Morning Star” dominating the southeast.

In a telescope Venus is a shrinking but thickening crescent, waxing from 20% to 25%. For the sharpest telescopic views, follow her up higher after sunrise into the blue sky of the morning sky.

Mars, magnitude – 0.1, in Aquarius, shines high in the south at nightfall and sets around midnight.

Jupiter is hidden behind the glare of the Sun.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius, is very low in the southwest in twilight and sets around the end of twilight.

Uranus, magnitude +5.7, near the Aries-Pisces border is high in the Southeast by early evening.

Neptune, magnitude +7.9 in Aquarius is high in the south in the early evenings.

3838 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of November 15, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/

New Moon occurs December 7 at 07:20 UTC or 1:20 AM CST when the Moon will on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on December 12, when she will be 251765 miles from Earth.
The Geminid Meteor Shower peaks on December 13-14. Geminids are one of the year’s best meteor showers. It is my favorite meteor shower. It’s a consistent and prolific shower, and usually the most satisfying of all the annual showers, even surpassing the more widely recognized Perseids of August. This shower typically produces 50 or more multicolored meteors an hour, or about one every minute.

As a general rule, the dazzling Geminid meteor shower starts around mid-evening and tends to pick up steam as evening deepens into late night. No matter where you live worldwide, the greatest number of meteors usually fall in the wee hours after midnight, or for a few hours centered around 2 a.m. local time. If you’re game, you can watch the Geminid shower all the way from mid-evening until dawn.

The first quarter moon will set shortly after midnight leaving dark skies for what should be an excellent early morning show.

The Geminids are produced by debris left behind by an asteroid known as 3200 Phaethon, which was discovered in 1982. The shower runs annually from December 7-17. It peaks this year on the night of the 13th and morning of the 14th.

Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Gemini, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

If it should prove cloudy you can see the meteors live via VHF radar at http://www.meteorscan.com/meteor-live.html

This site updates every 60 seconds. In a typical meteor event the trace starts high in frequency, towards right of graph and rapidly drops to the radar carrier frequency as the meteor decelerates in the atmosphere, increasing in strength as the ionization increases as the meteor burns up. This creates a spiked or triangular shape. If the image looks like a forest of spikes and triangles it’s space junk reentering and if looks like a toothy saw blade it is picking up terrestrial signals via tropospheric ducting or sporadic E propagation as terrestrial signals are reflected off of clouds of ionized gas 55 to 100 miles up.

The blue region you will see is the baseline atmospheric noise.

Or you can listen to the meteors as they enter at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OBOKtrmdEU

What you will hear are signals being received in Washington DC as they are being reflected by the meteors ion trails. The reflected signals are actually analog TV stations in Canada on Channel 2, around 55.24 MHz, or based on availability and propagation on Channel 3, around 61.260 MHz.

Last but not least is the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar https://fireballs.ndc.nasa.gov/cmor-radiants/

This is 3 station HF / VHF meteor radar operating at frequencies of 17.450, 29.850 and 38.150 MHz near Tavistock, Ontario Canada, which records an average 2500 meteoroid orbits or tracks per day.

As the shower is in progress an object will be ever so slowly moving from the South towards Taurus the Bull.

On December 16, if one looks between the V shaped Hyades star cluster, which makes up the face of Taurus the Bull and the Pleiades star cluster, which looks a tiny version of the Big Dipper, one should see a greenish blob, which will be 3.5 magnitude Comet 46P / Wirtanen.

Wirtanen, (pronounced WERE – tuh – nun) was discovered on January 17, 1948 by Carl Wirtanen at the Lick Observatory. Since then, it has been observed on every approach except for its 1980 passage, when it was drowned out by the glare of the Sun.

This comet is a “short-period comet” with a 5.4 year orbit around the Sun. At its farthest extent its orbit reaches Jupiter, whose gravitational field as altered the comets orbit, such as in 1972 and 1984, when the planet gravity accelerated the comets speed, which decreased the comets orbit from 6.65 to 5.87 years in 1972 and then from 5.87 years to 5.50 years in 1984.

On its closest orbital approach to the Sun it comes close to Earth’s orbit, but, usually while the Earth is at another point of her orbit, which is why this approach or “apparition” is unique, as the comet will be very close, comet wise, to the Earth, at 7.7 million miles, or 30 Lunar distances.

The comet will have just made its closes approach to the Sun four days earlier, so it will be at near peak brightest.

With the comet passing just after a First Quarter Moon which won’t overly interfere, its brightness and it being the 10th closest comet in modern times means should it reach magnitude 3 which theoretically will be visible even in the city, which allows only 3rd magnitude and brighter objects to be seen. If it doesn’t reach magnitude 3, then you will need to go to a dark sky away from city lights as these darker skies allow objects of magnitude 6 to be visible.

In the most optimistic scenario, it could remain at naked eye brightness for several weeks as it cruises higher in the night sky, being visible most of the night.

That’s the good news. Here’s the bad. Comets can be too close to the Earth to be impressive. If they are too close the light is too diffuse, like an out of focus light. One source says it will be about as bright as the faintest star in the Big Dipper. Adding to the misery is with this comet the “coma” or head of the comet will be pointing directly at the Earth, so the tail will be mostly invisible.

But, still, it’s a comet and they don’t happen every day, or night, so give it a try.

I will say that comets are more binocular objects than telescope objects, as light gathering power is far more important than magnification.

7 x 35 binoculars are better than 10 x 50’s, but, both should work well.

If all goes well and it doesn’t rain for a week, as has been known to happen, this will be the sixth or seventh comet I will have seen. These include Comets West, Halley, Hale-Bopp, Hyakutaki, Catalina and perhaps Comet Ison.

1976’s Comet West, a gem of beauty, benefited from a power failure which darkened the Western half of Birmingham, an occurrence about which I did not complain. In the case of Comet 2013’s Ison, I saw an object that looked as it should have looked, when it should have been there, located where it should have been located in the fading dusk. But, was it the comet or a distant jet contrail pointing directly away from the set Sun mimicking the comet? It didn’t move, which makes me think “comet”, but, was it?

Not being sure, I count it as a “maybe”.

Winter Solstice will be December 21 at 22:23 UTC or 4:23 PM CST. The South Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its southernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Capricorn at 23.44 degrees south latitude. This is the first day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Ursid meteor shower, a minor meteor shower, which runs annually from December 17-25 will peak on the night and morning of December 21 – 22 producing about 5-10 meteors per hour. It is produced by dust grains left behind by comet Tuttle, which was first discovered in 1790.

This year the glare from the Full Moon will hide all but the brightest meteors. If you are extremely patient, you might still be able to catch a few good ones.

Best viewing will be just after midnight from a dark location far away from city lights. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Ursa Minor, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on December 24, when she will be 224,352 miles from Earth.

’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’

Christmas

Christmas is my favorite time of the year.

Christmastime is a time of wonder & mystery. A time of bright lights, shining trees and the time of hide and seek, as presents are hid from inquiring minds and fingers.

A time when one’s mind and memories drift back to days of childhood, and Christmases now long gone by. Remembering friends and family, some here, some now gone & longing that they were near once again, as it was once upon a time not so long ago. And, it is a time when, if we allow ourselves and don’t choose to “Grinch out” and be sour pusses, we can become kids once again.

Most importantly though, it’s a time to remember that the true “reason for the season” occurred in a manger, long ago on that first cold and chilly “Silent Night.”

So as you go about your Christmas preparations remember the magic that was there when you were a child & don’t let that magic die. Make it magic once again

For Christmas truly is “the most wonderful time of the year”.

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Remember that this is YOUR newsletter. Articles and suggestions for this newsletter are welcome and needed. Please consider sending an article, preferably amateur radio, meteorological or EMCOMM related.

Thanks!

This month’s meeting will feature the ALERT Christmas Party on December 11 at 1PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
Wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

Hi everyone,

I hope this finds you well.

The colors of Fall are brightening all around us, which is one of the “treats” of the seasons.
The “trick” of the season is that we have now entered our second tornado season.

So, this is a good time to review your emergency plans and check your emergency equipment.

Are you still ready?

Ask yourselves these simple questions.

Can you receive weather warnings? This includes at home, at work and on the road, even with a power outage.

Do you have a place where you can take shelter at home, at work or on the road?

And, if a tornado strikes near you, do you know what to do?

Is your emergency equipment still ready? This includes radios, supplies, kits and tools.

These are questions that need to be asked and any necessary actions taken.

You and your family’s life depend on it. For though ALERT responds to the NWS to take storm reports, our primary responsibility is to take care of ourselves, our families and then our community.

So take time to learn about disaster preparedness. Think about what you will do if “it” happens to you. Educate your family, friends, coworkers and neighbors as to what they can do and why they should prepare also.

If your message meets unreceptive ears, don’t worry. Those little seeds of knowledge can grow into large trees. And, knowledge saves lives.

And, saving lives is what we are in “the business” for.

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The Mythological F6 Tornado?

May 27, 1997 started unremarkably in South Central Texas, but, it would soon become a date etched into the meteorological history books.

As is the ways of the ocean of air in which we live, the potions brewed in the Witches Cauldron of Circumstances that made conditions ripe for a tornado outbreak.

So it was that at 12:54 AM CDT the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued Tornado Watch 338 which was effective from 1:15 PM to 7:00 PM CDT, which included Williamson County Texas.

At 3:30 PM the NWS Austin/San Antonio Weather Forecast Office, also known as NWSFO EWX, issued a Tornado Warning for Williamson County until 7:00 PM, stating “At 3:25 PM a tornadic thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of Jarral (sic) moving southeast at 10 MPH. This storm has had a history of producing tornadoes and large hail. The city of Jarrel (sic) is in the path of this storm.”

Between 3:15 and 3:20 what was to become known as the “Jarrell TX Tornado” formed as a F0 or F1 tornado and rapidly intensified (explosively is the term the NOAA report used) and touched down as a thin pencil-like tornado near the Bell-Williamson County line.

Even though the Jarrell storm was producing a mesocyclone and a violent tornado, the radar reflectivity field did not show a distinct hook echo directly preceding the tornado. A small hook was apparent on the Granger radar data after the tornadic circulation developed. The NOAA report stated “Although most supercells contain mesocyclones on the right rear flank with respect to storm motion, the mesocyclones on this day were located on the front flank (southwest quadrant) as they moved slowly south-southwestward. The difference in mesocyclone location was probably due to enhanced southwestward propagation along the boundary. Despite the fact that the reflectivity features were not typical and could have somewhat confused a radar interpreter, the rotational signals were clear and easy to follow.”

Although still thin, it was already powerful. It scoured a cotton field down to a depth of 18 inches. Next, it moved on to a wheat field, plucking out the wheat shafts by the millions and then propelling these million arrows and impaling the 300 cows that were in the field beyond that. Its funnel rapidly intensified into a violent ¾ mile wide multiple vortex tornado at around 3:45 pm CDT.

At 3:48 pm CDT the tornado struck the Double Creek Estates neighborhood in the northwestern portion of Jarrell, as a slow-moving wedge tornado, moving only 15 MPH, subjecting the neighborhood to prolonged tornadic winds.

The storm scoured and vacuumed up 18 – 24 inches of topsoil, debarked and shredded trees, snapped power poles at their bases, then the slow-moving wedge tornado completely destroyed
all 38 houses including houses well-constructed and bolted to their foundations, leaving only slab foundations. Cars were picked up, sandblasted, torn into pieces and thrown long distances, some more than half a mile. Some of the vehicles were blasted into many pieces and strewn across fields. Other vehicles were never found at all. Nearby vehicles that remained relatively intact were sandblasted down to their frames, flattened and completely caked with mud and grass.

So were the victims. The tornado victims sustained such extreme physical trauma that recovery teams had difficulty distinguishing human remains and body parts from animal remains scattered throughout the area. Many of the human remains were never recovered at all.

Those few who did miraculously survive stated it was like being inside a vacuum cleaner.

One lady said she was riding a mower on her lawn when she saw the tornado bearing down on her. She ran inside her home, grabbed a blanket, jumped into a bathtub and pulled the blanket over her head. The house blew apart around her, and the storm pushed her violently for hundreds of feet, eventually tossing her out of the bathtub. When it passed, she was badly bruised and cut, but still alive.

The tornado produced some of the most extreme ground scouring ever documented. When the tornado crossed county roads CR 308, CR 305, and then CR 307, approximately 525 feet of asphalt was ripped off each of the roadways and pieces of concrete were chipped out of their slabs.
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A small-steel frame recycling facility was completely leveled, leaving nothing of the structure at all but the foundation and a few mangled steel beams.

The tornado was so fierce that it left virtually no sizable debris. This produced a problem in judging its strength, as the tornado left no damage indicators with which to judge higher winds, but video of the tornado shows extremely violent rotation and updraft winds comparable to other F5 tornados.

The original Fujita Scale in use from 1971 to 2007 started at F0 with wind speeds from 40 – 72 MPH or “Light Damage” to F5 with wind speeds of 261 – 318 MPH or “Incredible Damage”. Dr. Fujita intended that F0 through F5 be used in practice, but, included F6, which he phrased as “inconceivable tornado”, to allow for wind speeds exceeding F5 or more specifically from from 318 to 372 MPH and for possible future advancements in damage analysis. The original scale actually went up to F12 to Mach 1 the speed of sound, 738 MPH. The scale was originally designed to bridge gap between the Beaufort Scale used to judge wind speeds since the days of sailing ships and the Mach scale of supersonic speeds.

Newspaper articles from 1997 reported wind speeds from 400 – 500 mph, a later paper by the University of Wisconsin stated 260 MPH. In truth there is no way of knowing the true wind speed of this tornado.

Many tornado researchers, after reviewing aerial damage photographs of Double Creek Estates, considered the Jarrell storm to be the most violent tornado they had ever seen in terms of damage intensity. In fact it is said Dr. Fujita felt this was the closest to an F6 as you could get, but, it was unprovable.

The Enhanced Fujita Scale we now use leaves EF5 as open ended, for at the higher end wind speeds of an EF5 it becomes impossible to determine the wind speed based on the damage pattern, as the destruction becomes too great.

One particularly sad note concerned Amateur Radio.

In NOAA’s “Service Assessment, The Central Texas Tornadoes of May 27, 1997” it states:

“Facts, Findings and Recommendations

A. Observations

Finding 1:
The amateur radio base station at NWSFO EWX was not activated for Tornado Watch #338. The NWSFO EWX did try to contact the amateur radio coordinator for Tornado Watch #340 but could not raise him. They also could not contact a backup coordinator. No one on duty at NWSFO EWX knew how to turn on the amateur radio equipment for passive monitoring. Therefore, vital spotter information was not received via this amateur radio link. A meteorologist intern at NWSFO EWX indicated he did receive one report via a phone call from an amateur radio operator.

Recommendation 1:
Personnel at NWSFO EWX should be trained in how to turn on the amateur radio equipment so that they can at least hear reports, even if the network is not activated. NWSFO EWX should also work with the amateur radio coordinator on backup procedures for contacting key people in impending emergencies.”

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/jarrell.pdf (23rd page of PDF, 15th page of report)

The lesson for groups such as ours is the NWS REALLY DOES need and value amateur radio assistance during severe weather. This may seem obvious, but, in today’s world of smartphones, wall-to-wall TV coverage and the plethora of social media routes, amateur radio can sometimes seem like an archaic relic to some. In truth our role is just as vital today as it was in 1997 or at any time in past. They consider us a vital resource, not necessary nuisance.

Whether it is used during hurricane relief, earthquake aftermaths or storm spotting and post storm response, amateur radio plays a crucial role that cannot be overstated.

“When all else fails there is amateur radio” is a true truism.

It’s our job to make sure amateur radio doesn’t fail.

We do this by volunteering, keeping current in our training and not being lulled to sleep when the quiet times come and by remaining “reachable” when we are needed during an emergency.

For as surely as the sun rises in the east, the time will come when you will receive the words “NWS Requests Callout”.

It is our job to be ready.

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Mark’s Almanac

With the arrival of November we enter our second tornado season. Alabama and the Southeast are “blessed” by being the only area on Earth having two tornado seasons. And, the cause of the second season is the same as the spring season – clashes of cold and warm air masses. The cold air of winter is invading and trying to push the warmth of the summer back into the sea, which is the same process of springtime.

This second season is often more destructive than the spring season. From 1951 to 2016 there have been 267 November tornadoes in Alabama resulting in 53 fatalities and 1123 injuries. The third largest tornado outbreak occurred on November 24 – 25 2001 when 36 tornadoes occurred and 21 tornadoes occurred during the outbreak of November 23 – 24 2004.

November was Alabama’s leading tornado month from 2001 to 2011 until the dual outbreaks of April 15 and April 27 2011 erased that record.

So beware of a warm & muggy November day. Especially one with a south wind, as something may really be “in the air”.

The Hurricane threat greatly diminishes, with hurricane activity occurring mainly in the open Atlantic, threatening the Eastern Seaboard, but usually veering off into sea as cold fronts off the East Coast deflect them. Hurricanes can still form in the Caribbean, which usually visit the Yucatan, but can enter the Gulf.

From 1851 – 2017 there have been 90 Tropical Storms and 59 hurricanes, 5 of which made landfall in the United States.

Some notable November hurricanes are:

The 1932 Cuba hurricane, known also as the Hurricane of Santa Cruz del Sur or the 1932 Camagüey Hurricane. Although forming as a tropical depression on October 30, it became the only Category 5 Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and was the deadliest and one of the most intense tropical cyclones in Cuban history. On November 6, the tropical cyclone reached its peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. The storm weakened to Category 4 intensity as it came ashore in Cuba’s Camagüey Province on November 9 with winds of 150 mph. The storm took 3,033 lives.

Hurricane Ida, in 2009 was the strongest land falling tropical cyclone during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ida formed on November 4 in the southwestern Caribbean, and within 24 hours struck the Nicaragua coast with winds of 80 mph. It weakened significantly over land, although it restrengthened in the Yucatán Channel to peak winds of 105 mph. Ida weakened and became an extratropical cyclone in the northern Gulf of Mexico before spreading across the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida contributed to the formation of a nor’easter that significantly affected the eastern coast of the United States.

1985’s Hurricane Kate was the latest Hurricane in any calendar year to strike the United States.
Kate formed on November, 15 and reached hurricane intensity on November 16, and reached Category 2 intensity three days later. Kate struck the northern coast of Cuba on November 19. Once clear of land, she strengthened quickly, becoming a Category 3 storm and reached its peak intensity of 120 mph. On November 21 Kate came ashore near Mexico Beach, Florida, as Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph.

Hurricane Lenny, or Wrong Way Lenny, occurred in 1999. It is the second-strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record, behind the 1932 Cuba hurricane. Lenny formed on November 13 in the western Caribbean Sea and moved retrograde from the West to East passing South of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. He reached hurricane status south of Jamaica on November 15 and rapidly intensified over the northeastern Caribbean on November 17, attaining peak winds of 155 mph near Saint Croix in the United States Virgin Islands. It gradually weakened while moving through the Leeward Islands, eventually dissipating on November 23 over the open Atlantic Ocean.

1994’s Hurricane Gordon claimed 1122 lives in Haiti when it passed just west of the country as a tropical storm on November 13, 1994.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane seasons ends November 30.

Figure 2 – November Tropical Cyclone Breeding Grounds

Days rapidly grow shorter as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon steadily decreases from 40.9 degrees at the beginning of the month to 34.8 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight decreases from 10 hours 40 minutes on November 1 to 10 hours 07 minutes on November 30.

Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:

November 1 Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 5:55 PM
November 15 Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 4:45 PM – After Daylight Savings Time Ends
November 31 Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 4:39 PM

The blooms of summer have faded, but you may find yourself still sneezing, due to ragweed and mold.

Mold is a fall allergy trigger. You may think of mold growing in your basement or bathroom – damp areas in the house – but mold spores also love wet spots outside. Piles of damp leaves are ideal breeding grounds for mold.

Oh, and did I mention dust mites? While they are common during the humid summer months, they can get stirred into the air the first time you turn on your heat in the fall. Dust mites can trigger sneezes, wheezes, and runny noses.

November welcomes the peak of fall colors. For Birmingham the peak occurs around November 15, but the date can vary depending on your elevation & latitude.

Indian Summer and Squaw Winter continue to battle it out, but the cool or cold weather will eventually win, with the first average frost being on November 11.

The usual fall effects occur in North America with Canada’s Hudson Bay becoming unnavigable due to pack ice & icebergs. Navigation in the Great Lakes becomes perilous due to storms bringing the “Gales Of November” made famous in the Gordon Lightfoot song “The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald”.

And, don’t be surprised if you hear ducks overhead & see wedges of Canadian geese heading south for the winter. And if you see strange birds appearing in your front yard, remember that for 336 species of birds Alabama IS south for the winter.

Looking towards the sky, Mercury magnitude -0.2, will be at his highest altitude above the Western Horizon, or “Greatest Eastern Elongation” on November 6, when he will be 23.3 degrees above the Sun. This is the best time to view Mercury since it will be at its highest point above the horizon in the evening sky. Look for the planet low in the western sky just after sunset.

On 8 November, Mercury will be very the new crescent moon in the western evening sky immediately after sunset.

On November 11, if one observes Mercury through a telescope, the planet will resemble a half lit first quarter moon, a phase also called “dichotomy”.

As the month progresses he will sink into the sunset, becoming invisible by November 19.

On November 27 Mercury will be at “Inferior Conjunction” as he moves between the Earth and the Sun.

Two days later on November 27, he will be at the closest distance to the Sun in his 88 day orbit, or he “Perihelion”.

Venus, just over 2.3 light minutes from Earth, is hidden in the glow of the sunrise at the beginning of the month, and then emerges into the eastern morning sky. A very old crescent moon may be seen above the dawn alongside Venus on November 6.

Venus will then get progressively higher each morning above the Eastern horizon.

We often take for granted that Venus is one of the most constant fixtures in our night sky, shining brightly in the mornings and evenings. Venus occasionally becomes the third brightest object in the sky after the sun and moon, and one of these times will be on the morning of November 29th.

Mars is growing dimmer as his distance increases from Earth, at magnitude -0.6. He shines highest in the south just after the end of twilight and continues to set around 1 AM.

On November 11 he will move from Capricornus into Aquarius. The First Quarter Moon passes near Mars on 15 November, passing 1 angular degree from the Red Planet

In a telescope Mars is 86% sunlit and is as gibbous as we ever see it.

Jupiter, magnitudes –1.7 in Libra is very low after sunset, just above the southwest horizon in bright twilight.

On November 2 Jupiter and Mercury will sit side by side above the Western horizon, with Mercury to the left. Binoculars will help.

Jupiter then moves into the glow of the Sun and will pass behind the far side of the Sun, or be in Superior Conjunction on November 26.

Saturn, magnitude +0.6, in Sagittarius glows yellow in the South-Southwest in late twilight.

Uranus shines at magnitude 5.7, near the Aries-Pisces border in the Southeastern sky soon after nightfall. He is a mere 2.6 light hours away.

Neptune shining at magnitude 7.8, in Aquarius is also well up in the southeastern side of the sky soon after nightfall. He is currently 4.2 light hours away.

One thing that occasionally crosses my mind during flights of fancy and day dreaming is that since I’ve been a ham nearly 41 years, it is theoretically possible that some fleeting trace of the pulses of young Mark’s first shaky CW signal has actually reached one of the 81 star systems visible to the naked eye 41 light years away. Not to mention the nearly 1000 fainter systems lying there.

If that doesn’t spark an alien invasion, nothing will.

Our Sun from the farthest planet within this range appears as a faint 5.8 magnitude star to the many tentacled purple creatures buggish eyes – all 16 of them. As he, she or it wonders “is there anyone else out there?”

New Moon will occur November 7. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This phase occurs at 16:02 UTC or 10:02 AM CST. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.

In Europe on the evening of November 12, at 6:27 PM, the moon will “Occult” or pass in front of Pluto, as observed in London.

The Moon will be at Apogee or its farthest distance from Earth on November 14, when she will be 251246 miles from Earth.

The annual Leonid meteor shower occurs from November 6 – 30 and peaks on the night of November 17 & the morning of the 18th. Though the Leonids are an “average shower”, producing only an average of 15 meteors per hour, they are well known for producing bright meteors and fireballs.

This shower is also unique in that it has a cyclonic peak about every 33 years where hundreds of meteors per hour can be seen. That last of these occurred in 2001. The Leonids are produced by dust grains left behind by Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which was discovered in 1865.

Its productivity varies per year, but it can deposit 12 to 13 tons of particles across the planet. Which is why having an atmosphere to shield us is such a nifty thing.

The waxing gibbous moon will set shortly after midnight leaving fairly dark skies for what could be a good early morning show. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight. Meteors will radiate from the constellation Leo, but can appear anywhere in the sky.

Full Moon will occur at 05:40 UTC or 12:40 AM CST November 23. November’s Full Moon is called “Beaver Moon” in Native American folklore, because this was the time of year to set the beaver traps before the swamps and rivers froze. It has also been known as the Frosty Moon and the Hunter’s Moon.

The Moon will be at Perigee or its closest approach to Earth on November 26, when she will be 227,809 miles or one and one quarter Light Seconds from Earth.

3826 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of October 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/.

Unfortunately one of the prime tools used to detect these worlds, the Kepler Space Telescope, which discovered 70% of these worlds, has ended its mission after 13 years, having finally run out of fuel.

Gladly there are years of data still to be reviewed and another 2900 possible planets to be vetted, most of which are expected to prove to be real.

Finally, don’t forget to set your clocks back one hour at 2 AM, Sunday morning November 4th, as Daylight Savings Time ends.

Remember that according to the National Time Act of 2014 states you MUST wait until 2 AM to reset your clocks, or you will be in violation of Section 15, Paragraph 114, Subset 195485 (24(234b)) (see page 4537) of said act.

Would I lie?

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This month’s meeting will be on November 13 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone. The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083.
Hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter

wd4nyl@bellsouth.net

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Mark’s Weatherlynx
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