[Email1] Area Forecast Discussion from 3:34pm

[Ronnie King]

Hi everyone. I am sure that I am probably a bit slower than the rest of
the world but here is a portion of the latest AFD from NWS BMX:

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS> WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD AND COVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY. THIS AIR MASS
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS> WILL
HOLD STRONG FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE SOME MODERATION TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS AIR MASS
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS> IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND COLD OUTBREAK IN AT LEAST A DECADE. BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILL
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20CHILL>
FACTORS...AND WINTRY WEATHER WILL MAKE
MANY AREAS HAZARDOUS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE COLD WEATHER BEFORE
IT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FORECAST AT HAND THIS
PACKAGE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS RUN HAVE THINGS A BIT MORE
TRICKY CONCERNING FROZEN PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THESE
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND AM NOT READY TO LOWER ANY
POTENTIAL THREATS...AND KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND AND
THREATS THE SAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE BAD
NEWS WITH THIS PROSPECT IS THAT RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE FRONT
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT>
FOLLOWED BY BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

MODEL CONTINUITY WAS NOT THAT GOOD THIS RUN GENERALLY
DEPICTINGMOISTURE
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE> AT A LESSER
DEPTH AND FOR A SHORTER TIME FRAME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO THESE SUBTLE CHANGES
AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A TENDENCY TO SQUEEZE ALL MOISTURE
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MOISTURE> OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMAL
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=THERMAL> PROFILE NEAR
THE FRONT <http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT> WILL
BE CRITICAL
AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SO IT APPEARS THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LIMIT THE TIMING SLIGHTLY TO ONLY FAR FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z...THEN RAPIDLY SWITCHING FROM RAIN TO A MIX TO
SNOW BETWEEN 00-04Z WEST TO EAST. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE WINDOW REMAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. DUE TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASINGLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL DIP
THE WIND CHILL <http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20CHILL>
VALUES TO ZERO OR BELOW. THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20CHILL>
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BELOW 15 DEGREES AND WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FREEZE> WARNING
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING> HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS
TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...AND THE COLD CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE
PERSONAL HARM. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW AND BE PREPARED
FOR THESE ABNORMALLY COLD CONDITIONS.

A VERY SLOW MODERATION WILL ENSUE BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE A LESSER THREAT FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP AS THE AIR MASS
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AIR%20MASS>
WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE EVERYTHING RAIN. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
<http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ACTIVE>
AND SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND.



-- 
Ronnie King
WX4RON
205.745.1199
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