[Email1] Severe weather possible Monday - Tuesday

[Ronnie King]

Greetings everyone. I just wanted to pass along this portion of the HWO in
order to give us all a heads up about what may be going on  on Monday and
Tuesday. As always, when there is a threat of severe weather, we should be
prepared for an NWS issued Callo out for ALERT.

****

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION ACROSS ALABAMA AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION ROTATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA. THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS
SHOWING AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL RUN TO
SHOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT FAR EAST BY EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS. THE FIRST WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT
WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT
TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. SINCE THE
LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. AFTER THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS OUT OF EAST ALABAMA TUESDAY MORNING
...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A ZONE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONT. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME. THE GFS MODEL IS
FORECASTING A ZONE OF MID 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
IF THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER FROM MORNING STORMS...THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AIR MASS
COOLS...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

58/ROSE



-- 
Thank you,
Ronnie King
WX4RON
205.745.1199
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