ALERT NEWSLETTER – April 2015

Hi everyone,   I hope this finds you doing well.   Just a brief reminder, that at our upcoming April meeting the Nominating Committee will issue its recommendations for the upcoming May ALERT elections.  Nominations from the floor will be allowed the night of the elections in May.   I hope to see you there!     ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….  

Impact Based Warnings Implemented

 

Beginning April 1^st, 2015, The NWS Birmingham, Huntsville and Peach Tree City Forecast Offices are implementing “Impact Based Warnings”.

  These new Impact Based Warnings are designed to improve communication of critical information through the use of specific statements, with easy to find hazard and impact information and the use of summary tags at the bottom of warnings.   These new warnings originate from NWS findings learned after the May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri EF5 tornado.  This storm caught the city largely off guard, leaving 158 people dead and injuring more than 1,000 people, making it the deadliest tornado in the United States since record-keeping began in 1950.   An NWS assessment found that most of the residents of Joplin found out about this warning from the outdoor warning systems, but, before seeking shelter, they sought out more information from additional sources, such as media outlets, wanting to confirm that a tornado was actually touching down in their vicinity and that it would affect their location, rather than another part of the county.   It was discovered that the residents of Joplin simply weren’t taking tornado warnings seriously.   The NWS tried to think of a way to stress importance on future storms that may have similar impacts as the Joplin tornado, and this resulted in the new Impact Based Warnings.   The goal of these new warnings is to provide more information to the media and Emergency Managers, to help them inform the public of the reality of the threat and the probable consequences of the storm. Citing a Montgomery Advertiser article from March 27, 2015: “The potential damage and threat of the storms will be key to the impact-based warning system”, said Kevin Laws, of the NWS office in Birmingham. The tuned advisories will be for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. The most common time for severe weather in Alabama is March through May, NWS data shows.

“The impact-based warnings will give more detailed information about the threats the severe storm may pose for an area,” he said. “In the event of a tornado warning, it will tell if it is a radar-indicated tornado, or if there is a confirmed tornado on the ground. We want to give the public as much information as possible, as quickly as possible, so they can take the steps to protect themselves and their families during times of severe weather.”

 

The impacts will range from “Expect wind damage to roofs or siding and hail damage to vehicles” for severe thunderstorms to “You are in a life-threatening situation,” reserved for the most powerful tornado.

 

“We hope these enhancements will make our warnings more effective and easier to use,” said Jim Stefkovich, meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham office, in a YouTube video posted to discuss the changes. “We want to make the warnings as effective as possible. The words we use may motivate people to take the proper precautions when they are threatened by tornadoes or severe storms.”

 

Currently tornado warnings are of one category.

 

The impact-based system will divided tornado warnings into three categories:

 

1. The Base Warning which will be used for the majority of warnings

2. Particularly Dangerous Situation PDS warnings for more powerful storms

3. Tornado Emergency or Catastrophic Warning, reserved for the most rare, most potentially   dangerous tornadoes.

  A “Tornado Emergency” will vividly explain the likely devastation, urging those in the path to seek immediate shelter underground or in a tornado shelter or face unsurvivable conditions. These warnings are for “catastrophic” tornadoes, those likely to cause “complete destruction of neighborhoods,” including “many well built homes and businesses,” according to Jim Keeney of the NWS Central Regional Headquarters.   Examples of the format of these warnings, courtesy of the NWS Peachtree City Office are as follows:     Changes to Warning Text Specific Statements Specific phrases will be used in Tornado Warnings for both the considerable and catastrophic tags.       Hazard and Impact Information Each Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warning will contain individual lines that clearly state hazard and impact information.         Tags Tags will appear at the bottom of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, and in the Severe Weather Statements that update the warnings. In a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, tags will be used to define:

• hail size
• wind speed
• possible tornado (if necessary)

In a Tornado Warning, two types of tags can be used:

• Tornado tag (always used)
  • radar indicated
  • observed
• Damage threat tag (optional)
  • considerable damage
  • catastrophic damage

 

An recent example would be:

  BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA 756 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…   JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…   * UNTIL 900 PM CDT   * AT 755 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER   GRAYSVILLE…OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUMITON…MOVING EAST AT 30   MPH     HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL     SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED     IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE            TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.   * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…   BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…VESTAVIA HILLS…HOMEWOOD…MOUNTAIN BROOK…   TRUSSVILLE…HUEYTOWN…GARDENDALE…IRONDALE…LEEDS…MOODY…   FAIRFILED…FULTONDALE…SUMITON…CENTER POINT…PLEASANT GROVE…   CLAY…PINSON…TARRENT AND MIDFIELD.    PRECAUTIONARY PREPARDNESS ACTIONS…  PREPARE IMMEDIATLEY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND  LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE.  STAY AWAY FROM  WINDOWS.    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IT OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY LEAD TO  FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.   Hopefully these new warnings will persuade the public to heed the warnings and to make rapid wise decisions, while the time to act and react remains.   For time is our greatest enemy.     ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….       ALERT Sunday Night Net Report   Date      NCS               Checkins   Traffic Mar 1   KK4YPK                   52               0 Mar 8   KK4NGD                  44               0 Mar 15 WD4NYL                   27                0 Mar 22 KK4NGD                    49                0 Mar 29 WD4NYL                   42                0   ——————————————————- TOTAL                                  214               0     ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………       Mark’s Almanac   The Romans called April “Aprilis”, probably from the word “aperire”, which means, “to open”.  This time of year being when buds open.  It was originally the second month of the Roman calendar, before Roman King Numa Pompilius added January & February in 700 BC.   Freezing weather comes to an end as Birmingham’s average last freeze is April 1, while Tuscaloosa’s was March 26.  The record for the latest freeze date is April 21, 1953 for Tuscaloosa and April 23, 1986 for Birmingham.   April is less wet than March & rain becomes more localized and less widespread in nature. The sun heats the lower atmosphere near the ground and since the upper atmosphere is still cold, the warm air rises, reaches the dew point line, forms clouds & then it may rain.  April is the first time in the spring season that favors local convective activity, which is why you have “April Showers”.   April is peak tornado month, with wide scale outbreaks possible.  There are 2 ½ times the number of tornadoes as in March.  25% of the year’s tornadoes will have occurred by April 28.   From April 1950 to 2014, 8304 tornadoes were reported causing, as of 2013, 1770 deaths and 29,090 injuries.   As of 2011, Alabama ranked fifth in the number of April tornadoes, following Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois & Kansas, all belonging to the “over 400 club” for April since 1950.   As of June 2013 Alabama and Oklahoma are tied as having the most F5 & EF5 tornadoes, both having had 7 F5 or EF5 tornadoes.  In fact until the May 20, 2013 Moore Oklahoma EF5 tornado, Alabama lead the nation in the most violent tornadoes.   The Moore Oklahoma tornado was notable not only for its strength, but, also for what I consider the unfortunate or unwise advice given by Oklahoma City’s KFOR Meteorologist Mike Morgan telling his viewers at least eight times to get in their cars and flee south of the city as the large rain wrapped tornado rapidly bore down on the city.  Advising this though admitting that the interstate was already a “parking lot”, since it was rush hour, and then later advising people twice to “abandon your cars” as the storm reached the city and its helpless commuters.   “Unfortunately there are hundreds and hundreds of cars on the road……a lot of people are panicking trying to leave their house…..you really can’t move very much.”  –  Chase Thomason KFOR   Not exactly the best advice from my perspective.   Some notable Alabama tornados in past Aprils include:   April 18, 1953 F3   Lee & Russell County          6 dead 195 injured April 18, 1953 F3   Shelby County                     8 dead 495 injured April 15, 1956 F4   Jefferson County    25 dead 200 injured     “McDonald Chapel Tornado” April 18, 1969 F4   Montgomery, Bullock, Butler & Crenshaw Counties     2 dead   15 injured   April 3 & 4, 1974 “Super Outbreak” produced at least eight tornadoes in Alabama, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms that swept the state killing eighty-six persons and injuring 949.  The Huntsville area had an F3, F4 & an F5 tornado.  The F4 tornado struck a half mile from where they were still digging out from an F3 tornado that had struck earlier in that day.   Guin was literally wiped off the map, as was Xenia Ohio.  The entire Eastern US and Southern Canada was affected during “The Day of 100 Tornadoes”, which in total produced 148 tornadoes including 30 F4 and 6 F5 tornadoes, killing 315 people and injuring over 5,000 people.   April 3, 1974   F5   Lamar, Marion, Winston, Lawrence & Morgan Counties 30 dead 230 injured    April 3, 1974   F4   Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Cullman Counties 3 dead 178 injured   

April 3, 1974   F5   Limestone-Madison                     28 dead 260 injured

April 4, 1977   F5   Jefferson County                         22 dead 130 injured    “Smithfield Tornado” April 1, 1998   F3   Russell County                              2 dead   23 injured April 8, 1998   F5   Tuscaloosa & Jefferson County 32 dead 259 Injured   “Oak Grove Tornado”   April 25 – 28, 2011 Super outbreak was the largest and deadliest tornado outbreak on record,   with 358 tornadoes in 21 states and southern Canada.  April 27 alone had 211 tornadoes.  Of 348 people killed, 324 were tornado related, the other 24 being non tornado storm related deaths, such as straight line winds.   Alabama was hit by two distinct waves of tornadoes, the first hitting during the early morning hours resulting in 52 injuries and the second in the afternoon and evening resulting in 238 deaths and 1946 injuries in a total of 62 tornadoes.   April 27, 2011   F5   Marion County                 18 dead 100 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Walker & Blount Counties 13 dead 54 injured April 27, 2011   F3   Marion County                 7 dead 100 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Greene, Tuscaloosa & Jefferson counties 65 dead 1500 injured April 27, 2011   F3   Greene, Hale & Bibb counties 7 dead 50 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Jefferson, St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah and Cherokee counties 22 dead 81 injured April 27, 2011   F4   Elmore, Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 7 dead 30 injured April 3, 2012     F2   Tallapoosa & Chambers counties 1 dead 2 injured   In April it pays to look upon the sky with a jaundiced eyed, except, of course, at night.   Looking skyward, Mercury is hidden deep in the glow of sunrise.   Venus, the “Evening Star”, blazes in the West during and after evening twilight.   Mars is below Venus in the evening sky, but, is only 1% as bright as his much brighter sister.   Jupiter in Cancer is shining high in the Southeast sky as the first evening stars appear.   Saturn in Scorpius rises around midnight and is highest in the south just before dawn.  His rings are tilted a wide 24.9 degrees to our line of sight, with his north pole tilting towards Earth, as it is Summer in the northern hemisphere of Saturn.   Uranus and Neptune are hidden behind the glare of the Sun.   April’s Full Moon was known as “Full Pink Moon” in Native American folklore as it marked the reappearance of pink wild ground phlox.  This will occur April 4 at 7:05 AM.  This moon was also called by various tribes, the “Sprouting Grass Moon”, “Growing Moon”, “Egg Moon” and “Fish Moon”, as this is when shad swam upstream to spawn.   Also, on April the 4, there will be a total lunar eclipse.  This eclipse will be visible through most of North America, South America, Australia and eastern Asia.    You will notice that I underlined the word “most of North America”.   We are in the area outside of “most”, as the eclipse will be occurring at our moonset on that date, which occurs at 6:36 AM.     The eclipse begins at 4:01 AM as the first traces of the Earth’s shadow begins darkening the moon. The moon sets late during the “partial phase” and then goes into total eclipse at 7:01 AM, after it has sunk below our western horizon.   The farther west you go, the more eclipse you will see.  Visited Dallas lately?   The next total lunar eclipse will be on September 27, 2015 and this one will be visible in Birmingham.   New Moon will occur April 18 at 1:56 PM CDT.  This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters, as there will be no moonlight to wash out the evening sky.   The Lyrid Meteor Shower occurs on the evening of April 22 and morning of April 23.   This is a minor shower, with only 12 to 24 meteors per hour. These meteors sometimes produce bright dust trails that last for several seconds.   The first quarter moon will exit shortly after midnight, and leave a dark sky for observing.   This shower is produced by dust particles left behind by comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which was discovered in 1861.   1822 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of March 26, per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/   One of them has been confirmed to be emitting a series of radio signals, possibly produced by an alien civilization, on 27.185 MHz.   Oh, “April Fool” by the way…   ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………   This month’s meeting will be on April 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.   If for some reason you cannot attend the meeting in person, you can still participate via telephone.  The teleconference number is 1-877-951-0997 & and the participant code is 741083. Hope to see you there! Mark / WD4NYL Editor ALERT Newsletter   www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/   Mark’s Weatherlynx Weather Resource Database